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Who Really Attacked Saudi Arabia?

2019-09-17

President Trump is saying that Iran appears to be responsible for the weekend attacks on oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. We look at where things are likely to go from here. Guest: David E. Sanger, a national security correspondent for The New York Times. For more information on today’s episode, visit nytimes.com/thedaily.

Background reading:

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
From the New York Times unworkable bar. This is still in prison tromp, is now saying that IRAN appears to be responsible for the weekend. Attacks Saudi Arabia's boiled. Do the same, where things are unlikely to go from here. it's Tuesday September? Seventy David described the scene in Saudi Arabia on Saturday or Michael, were all still trying to piece together, but what we do know is that it about three thirty. The morning on Saturday morning in Saudi Arabia, there were a series of explosions
a number of refinery facilities. Nice. And, of course, it was dark no one exactly what was happening. Fires were burning, it wasn't clear where these came from and it was until the sun rose They saw a really remarkably extensive amount of damage. And what they do
However, it was that a number of their big oil fields were burning and when you look at the satellite photographs, you see classic oil feel kind of operations, big tanks, lots of pipes and obviously lots of facilities that, if hit by a weapon, can burn- and that is exactly what happened. This was bigger than anything we had ever seen done to oil fields in Saudi Arabia at any time in history and didn't help us understand against of hitting oil fields in Saudi Arabia. What's the impact of that also Uribe obviously is among the world's biggest oil producers. These facilities account Michael for about six percent of the oil with pumped around the world every day, while the Saudis themselves produce roughly ten
in barrels a day. These facilities are capable of doing somewhere between five and eight million of that. So this is a significant amount for world production, but huge amount for the saudi production right to some. One is interested in striking Saudi Arabia and strike in a global economy. This is a very good target. Its the best target
could find, and what is your regional understanding of what has happened and who did it? Well before there was understanding there was a claim of responsibility. The body had gained elements of the Hutus, who are engaged in pretty desperate war with the Saudis in Yemen immediately claim credit for this shit. We promised the saudi regime that are coming operations will only grow wider and will be more painful than before so long as their aggression and blockade continues. They said that they sent
An drones in the Saudi Arabia and that those responsible for the head, so is the initial report came out on Saturday. The hoodie movement from neighbouring Yemen has taken credit for the attacks. The sound government has been backing. The yemeni government fight against some rebels of that seemed perfectly credible. Explanation. In till you dig into the facts, are little more than a few things just didn't add up. The first thing is that Secretary of State, my Campione turned a statement on Saturday evening, EAST Coast time. Meanwhile, America's top diplomatic putting the blame squarely on IRAN, the Secretary of State, my plan, I will tweeting there's cloud terror. By nearly one hundred attacks on Saudi Arabia. Try dream the Iranians have been responsible. They should this. Iran has now lost an unprecedented attack on the world's
energy supply. He did not provide evidence, but he said this didn't come from the hoodies. It didn't come from Yemen. And it was in a rainy and operation. One might be a little bit skeptical of that, but then we saw that there were seventeen different strike points and that became evident from some satellite photographs. Those satellite photographs showed. Seventy separate strikes that didn't quite seem to add up with ten drones. The second thing is that these trades with deep inside Saudi Arabia and it would have required a fly. The five hundred miles, or so for drones to be able to get there, and that seems well beyond the range of what we ve seen
The Hutus be able to do before and then, as we looked more and more at these satellite photographs, it seems clear that these were precision strikes. In fact, there was a hole in the domes of some of the storage facilities, the work each in precisely the same points, and they were neatly board little holes that seem to suggest a missile strike. Now a broad just was carrying some explosives. So the initial story just didn't seem the match was what we were looking at in the photographs and then what happens? What? Then, the president took to Twitter and he said on Sunday I wore a retreat, Saudi Arabia, oil supply was attacked. There is reason to
We know the culprits are locked and loaded depending on verification, but are waiting to hear from the kingdom as to who they believe was the cause of this attack and under what terms we would proceed. Kingdom is a reference to the kingdom of the salary, the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. So here we have the present rise days in charge of the world's largest and most power, for intelligence and military forces, saying that he is waiting for the Saudis to tell him who they believe triggered this attack and tell him what terms they would proceed. Will it sounds like you're discussing some kind of joint response, but the United States for the past two hundred plus, years decides on its own, whether or not it is going to come to the defence of an ally, conduct, a military strike or any other kind of response. It somewhat
remarkable the here that they're waiting for instructions from an ally, which is what the President's tweet sounded like he was saying and David. It's not just an ally, its Saudi Arabia and we're coming up on the one you're anniversary of Jamal Custodial death, which there's a significant amount of evidence. That mom had been summoned. A leader of Saudi Arabia ordered so it also seem somewhat extraordinary for the. U S to defer
to Saudi Arabia. Given that track record, that's right. The administration had been under tremendous pressure after the murder to identify MBA, says he's called as somebody who was involved, but the administration ignored at all, and I'm not gonna tell a country that spending hundreds of millions of dollars at his help may do. One thing, very importantly: keep oil prices down so that they're not going to a hundred nine hundred and fifty dollars a barrel right now we have oil prices in great Jake, I'm not gonna, destroy the world economy and I'm not gonna, destroy the economy or our country by being fully with Saudi Arabia. So I think this statement right event. So in some ways this is a big challenge.
And yes, but it's also something other potential political gift to the administration, because they can make the case to Congress and others that, while Saudi Arabia is no perfect government oi society that the Iranians are, in fact, more evil actors in the region and that essentially the argument they ve been making in the past. Forty eight hours to this attack would potentially have the impact of drawing the. U S and Saudi Arabia closer and giving the tramp administration a rationale for being closer to Mohammedan Solomons Saudi Arabia. That's right! But there is also the concern inside the Pentagon,
that you not Word Mohammed been salmon, drag the United States into a new Middle EAST war. It was only a week ago the people and the Pentagon and elsewhere in the administration, were showing a big sigh of relief. The John Bolton had gotten fired as national security adviser, because their concern was that Bolton would lead the United States ultimately into conflict with IRAN. Now with bottom gone, a series of unpredictable events may in fact pushed the: U S and Saudi Arabia. There were pushed the United States to back up the size if the Saudis strike IRAN. So just a review pomp Hale has said it around. The president has said: were locked and loaded began, what our ally, Saudi Arabia, led the way in determining who it is the who these are claiming credit
But why would the who these claim to have done as carried out this audacious sophisticated attack if they haven't what great question I'm a big confounded myself the who does, of course, are backed by the Iranian, so it's conceivable the uranium to ask them to do. It is conceivable that they just thought that by taking credit, for they were both more powerful than they really are and maybe in some way they were involved. But the most important element of this is it. The Saudis came out on Monday, the Saudis specific we are pointing the finger at IRAN with whom, of course, they're involved in this proxy war and declare that their examination of the evidence was that this attack was launched by IRAN, specifically right
Now, however, while saying that these were a rainy and weapons systems, there are saying they are still investigating, precisely where those weapons were fired from. They have, however, ruled out Yemen as being that base say, provided no evidence and that evidence may not exist because, despite what you see in the movies, we don't have all seeing eyes in the sky, I'm all corners of the world at all.
All the way back between two or cancellations lost, creative gags end shrinking outer avenue. The covered nineteen crisis is making it clear that the system supporting creative people is broken. Patriarch offers a better way. We help creators make up lost revenue and build a more sustainable income source by offering a monthly membership to their fans. In turn, fans get access to exclusive community premium contents and the chance become active participants in the work they love check out, patriarch dot com now and help change. The way art is valued is Maggie Harriman, I'm one of the White House correspondence for the New York Times and a sometimes daily guest. I remember a time in the spring of twenty seventeen when President Tromp had been trying and failing to get a bill through the house that would repeal President Obama's healthcare bill- and I
talk to him by phone after asking for time with him, and I tweeted afterwards about how he sounded on that call and very promptly was attacked by the president's critics on the left other times. I will be attacked by the president's supporters on the right and it really isn't my job to try to please one side or the other, we're not the Tipp of the spear for any political party or any one view it's our job to do what we can do and the most distilled version of the truth that there is. This is we do at the New York Times every day is try to find that most interpretation of the truth, and it requires horses and support and its Wyatt a vital that people subscribe to the Times David. If it turns out that this was IRAN, Why would IRAN one who attack Saudi Arabia's oil facilities? What's the point of his kind of attack or what
reason Michael, is that the Iranian of course have been under sanction for more than a year. Now, since the president left the Iranian Nuclear agreement,. So the Iranians may well want to send a message that says you want to stop our oil shipments or we can stop yours and the message they're sending by having such a successful attack is, If you count strike against IRAN or iranian interests, you may see the rest of the oil fields go up in flames and take a look at what that will do to world oil markets and to the american economy and, if you're, trying to send a message to a president who is desperate to keep the american economy afloat
That's a pretty powerful message to. The second thing is: is not the first time we ve seen the Iranians strike the Saudis as America's great ally partner and in the minds of the Iranians, their proxy? U S, authorities believe uranium. Hackers are responsible for recent. Cyber attacks against major oil and gas companies in Saudi Arabia and Qatar virus known as Jammu struck, thirty thousand computers and wiped out files and replace them with an icon of a burning american flag to either way. You sly said this would be IRAN seeking to hurt. Do u S by first hurting Saudi Arabia. That's right! now. The Iranian deny this and the iranian Foreign Minister, Mohammed, provides a wreath turned at a tweet of his own, saying that the images
aids in accusing IRAN has moved from maximum pressure to maximum defeat. U S and its clients is stuck in Yemen, because, if the illusion that weapon, superiority will lead to military victory, blaming ran, won't and disaster. They maintain, they had nothing to do with it, and that raises another question which could the iranian military have cited on its own to do this in order to prevent them president of IRAN from meeting President tromp course, president trumpet expressed and openness to meeting president ah honey in New York. If these circumstances were correct towards right, I would certainly agree to this, but in the meantime they have to be good, you understand what that means: you're suggesting and often where the iranian military sabotage as any kind of conversation between their president and ours? Absolutely it's alive option
Don't have any evidence of it yet, but even why would they do that? We'll? Just as president from decision to get out of the iranian Nuclear agreement was highly controversial in the United States? The decision to enter the agreement and twenty fifteen was, Highly controversial inside IRAN and the iranian military maintained that the civilian leadership and the ayatollahs gave up too much and of course they had to shut down vast parts of their nuclear programme, which was run by the iranian military. So there are factions within the military that made it very clear that they would like
to see that entire agreement completely dissolved and a rom walk away from all of the restrictions on it, so they can have their nuclear program back there arguing look. This has been a failure, just like we said the Americans didn't follow through on their own commitments, that we impose sanctions on us. It's hurting our economy and it's going to hurt our economy, we're going to make sure it hurts the Saudis to and is it to be expected that the? U S would launch a military response to an attack like this on an ally like Saudi Arabia. Is that sort of a foregone conclusion, or not necessarily, it's not a foregone conclusion. You'll remember. It was just a few months ago that the Iranian shot down a drone and american drone and the president decided not to go respond. In fact, the first response here, maybe that it's up to the Saudis, to defend their own territory
And to respond, but of course, if the Saudis defended their own territory in the Irani and came back and tried to wipe out more saudi oil fields, the United States would get sucked into that war, and so you want to make sure that the Iranians don't have a way to strike back if you strike them otherwise you're in an uncontrolled conflict and does the? U dot S, have such strategies that would maintain dominance without provoking an inevitable response from a run. Well, we're about to find out
I think there are other more subtle things you could do. You could gather the allies, show them the evidence of the strike and do some more general sanctions on IRAN. There are cyber options against IRAN and in fact the United States has a very complex cyber attack plan against IRAN that details of which leaked out a few years ago. Then it would call for basically turning off much of the electric power in IRAN, so there are all kinds of ways that one can get back. But you want to be very careful with this, because starting a war with IRAN would be a pretty serious and fearsome thing, and one thing we ve learned about Donald Trump,
Is he has backed away at moments when he has feared getting into a more general war, including the strike in nearly went ahead with against Romania facilities after we lost that wrong? Did you said earlier that the decision about how to proceed may actually rest with the Saudis? So what's your understanding of what they want? In this moment, all the Saudis turned out a statement on Monday, which basically was working for international support. They made the case that the target here were international and global energy supplies. In other words, they said they weren't the target global energy supplies of the target and has a key line where it says the kingdom calls upon the international community tools
soon its responsibility in condemning those stand behind this fact and to take a firm and clear position against this reckless behaviour that threatens the global economy, and then they invited in U n national experts to look at the situation participate in the investigation, so sounds to me like they're, not urging an immediate response, but are trying to see if this is a moment to build some international consensus about IRAN. Given, I wonder what you think of this moment tells us only tells you how much disarray we're you know, was only twenty fifty four years ago, that President Obama reach the new fear deal with IRAN, and there was a brief few months where there was some optimism that if the Eu S in IRAN could put the nuclear disagreement behind them, it might be the opening to further cooperation or
east the end of more than three decades of constant hostility and that's not what happened. And while there was a brief effort in the past few weeks by President Trump. To show that he was willing to sit down and talk with the Iranians? That now seems off the table, at least for some time, and there is every possibility that the response to this strike in Saudi Arabia or another strike by the iranian or others in the region, could actually trigger a regional war, and that's exactly what everybody has been trying to avoid for years now
driven I'm curious. If reading between the lines, you're saying that, if the Eu S Haddan left the Iranian Nuclear deal that we might not be here right now, that's one of the great what is of history. The people who supported the president's decision made the point that the Iranian didn't decrease their bad behaviour after they signed the veal and twenty fifteen they increased it. They supported the dictator in Syria, Bashar Al Assad, a continued support for terrorists, and that, therefore this was gonna happen anyway. The proponents of the deal would say that by re imposing sanctions on IRAN,
we bade them and force them to strike out. I think people will be arguing for years whether the decision to leave the iranian deal was the trigger for this kind of event or whether would have happened anyway David. Thank you very much. Thank you Michael.
On Monday afternoon at the White House, President Trump struck a far less combative tone than he had over the weekend thing. He wanted to avoid conflict with IRAN and saying he had not promised military protection to Saudi Arabia. Promise authorities that we have to sit down with the soldiers of work, something out and the Saudis one very much for us to protect them. But I say: well, we have to work. There was an attack like Saudi Arabia and there wasn't any attack on us, but the president emphasised that the? U S was ready for military conflict with IRAN, if necessary in the United States,
Aids is more prepared that any country in the history of in any history, if we have to go that way as to whether or not we go that way, will seek to find definitively. Who did it we'll be back here? Everyone? You know, a lot of things are changing and our professional lives so linked in learning wants to give you a hand with skills that can help you and your career. They have more than sixteen thousand courses, topped by industry. Experts learned skills like how to master working from Home Entrepreneurship Foundation,
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you know we have a lot of young families in there. We have temporary workers, they don't know from day to day and week to week whether they have a job and that's no way to live. Like highlights major changes underway in the. U S: auto industry, including shift away from sales of Sudan to suvs and pick up trucks which has prompted GEO to close factories and seek greater flexibility from its workers and for jams, workers to demand higher pay and job security, and much more than can be worth. A blue opponents were not about. Israel will hold its second election for Prime Minister.
In five months after the previous election ended with out of viable governing coalition with the lives of other people within Europe whose show a close rates between the scene, leaning candidates. As Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, a right wing who faces possible indictment over corruption charges and many Ganz a formal military chiefs, who has run as a more moderate voice the Times reports that another inconclusive outcome remains possible with some israeli leaders already predicting of election
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Transcript generated on 2020-05-26.