From an your times. I'm likeable borrow this israeli today, China appears to be undertaking the most significant expansion of its nuclear arsenal in the country's history and it seems to want to know about bring whatever uneasy spoke with. Our colleague David said about Why, then, is and why it matters?

it's Thursday July. Twenty ninth, so David you're on the show again talking about China again tell me about this latest development. While over the weekend we got some commercial satellite photographs, the truth that the Chinese were building sigh woes all across the western desert. At this hour, in a more coherent and five nuclear arsenal, reports reveal that China is working to build more than a hundred silos. The pace of construction is started early. This is certainly significant, if not there greatest expansion of China's nuclear Arsenal is worth calls on the ground to the uninitiated. They may not look much, but these are

clear silos, so they are places where you could, if you wanted place nuclear missiles that could launch at the United States or other times and once you examine these images, what they showed was a field, in which there were a hundred and ten. So silos going in place and the you showed that there were very neatly space depart and that, as they were finished, they were being covered over by these essentially big inflatable Hence that covered from satellites exactly what kind of engineering work was going on underneath and why is it such a Deal if China's building these possible silo sites, I made this point there just holes in the ground right. That's actually write their holes in the ground for now, but think about the math here you ve got a hundred and ten

I was at this new field and you have a hundred, thirty or forty add another feel that was discovered last month and in each one you can put a missile and a top those missiles You can put three or four nuclear warhead so quickly. China could be preparing to quintuple its nuclear programme, and that is a huge shift in strategy. What do you mean? What is the strategy been up to this point or for decades nuclear weapons haven't really been a big focus, China's military strategy in us. back in the nineteen sixty years as the nuclear arms race was heating. Up between this,

we union in the: U S, we saw stockpiling of massive numbers of nuclear arms, tens of thousands in the hands of Moscow on Washington, german, more liberal, internal furthermore, reactionary lasers and trepidation, but try them out a different decision at that time, not to be a major player in that race with indomitable. An indefatigable The chinese people will steadily attain their objective. They decided instead to me, pain, just a minimum deterrent just enough nuclear weapons to ward off attack, but not enough to actually get into the race themselves reparations grown from birth, nuclear or intently away, MAO Zedong guided us in all our work, so they develop their nuclear

weapons in the late 50s and early 60s. They tested them first in October, one thousand nine hundred and sixty four to demonstrate to the world that they knew how to make them work one and now say come. Who, of course, was the founder of Modern China and the head of the Chinese Communist Party in the country's undisputed leader didn't go. Head and build a massive stockpile. The way the Americans did or the Russians did, and the reason for that wasn't he wanted to focus China's energy and its money elsewhere. He wanted to spend on agriculture. He want to spend on building up industry and oh, what ultimately became long after his death, the world's second largest economy.

So they never got into the arms race. That's exactly why they built a small minimal force. They said they should be enough to demonstrate that we could Moscow or New York, and they called it what about the thanks. That seems like a really practical approach, and China's part I mean that kind of hungering gown developing its economy and entered a flying under the radar when it comes to nuclear weapons. So David weird things go from there Sabrina for a half a century after that, China largely maintained its small clear arsenal. It made some modest improvements here and there, made some of the missiles harder to find it made them more mobile, but it didn't engage in the arms race that was right during all around it and then over time

Of course, the United States in the Soviet Union finally entered into a series of treaties, Start Treaty, relegate approach to arms control guide us we're almost a decade there, began to put some caps on their nuclear arms, build up and eventually began to destroy nuclear weapons in a historic first for arms control, we will actually reduce U S and soviet strategic nuclear arsenal. The final one of these agreements called new start, was reached during the Obama administration. It fulfils our common objective to negotiate. A new strategic arms reduction treaty includes significant reductions in the nuclear weapons that we all deplore and that limit, each side, the fifteen hundred and fifty are long range nuclear metals. So the major players-

reducing their arms and they maintain that status quo. For just about the past seven or eight years. which brings us to the satellite images from this week, because until now we thought that the Chinese, who just trying to improve the survive, ability and the quality of their nuclear weapons, but this was the first time that they may actually be interested in, firstly, increasing their numbers and so Big question this raises is: why is China changing its strategy? Now

I'll, be right back. Eighty be understands the importance of building the right team and offers the data insights to help just as important, there. I technology helps you pay. The team accurately grow, stronger with eighty p h, our talent I'm in payroll, I'm Jane coasted host of the argument applied passed from your chance Akkadian. I spent years the reporter talking to people from across the political spectrum a lot of arguments to in person, and unlike some, are based, listen mean, but some have made me think differently or helped. Me understand other people's points of view. Then that's what the argument is about

tweet on the show, you'll hear people who disagree with each other, respectful civil debate that gets behind the big minister is and beyond party lines like how to reform policing in America whether we should cancel student debt, brazen, Madame a wage or kill the fella buster I do not agree with everything you here and that's the point. You might even walk away some Europeans of your out, you can new. Episodes of the argument everyone's day were every year listening to the spot gas so David, why has China changed its strategy and we particularly given the fact that it seems like nuclear weapons, have kind of faded from geopolitics? All that's the big mystery Sabrina and everyone still trying to figure out The motives are here, so there are a couple, a different theories and they all revolve around the fact that the world's changed a lot in the past couple of years. So the first theory is

Chinese or actually worried about you asked missile defence. It's a missile defence is about now incoming warheads out of space or out of the sky before they land, and so we have batteries of anti missile systems in Alaska, California, and now some that are a board ships out in the Pacific, and some of our missile defences are actually starting work and they were pretty impressive and the Chinese may be beginning. They conclude that their old theory, which is that they could always threatened hit an american city, may no longer apply and the only way that they can make paying their nuclear deterrent here is if they can show them an overwhelm american missile defenses by launching? way more missiles at us that our missile defence is could handle interesting. So the? U S, missile defence system gets better

in China. Smaller nuclear arsenal is suddenly not looking so strong anymore because the? U S can effectively shoot down whatever missiles, China, fires that right and so its concern, viable, that we kind of goaded them into this, that in building missile defence, to protect us against North Korea, or IRAN, we ve actually provoke the Chinese in building up their arsenal right. So that's theory, number one. What's the next one will the next one is that the Chinese are also worried about some of their neighbours and their new fear improving. So Russia has put a huge amount of money and modernizing its force. It now has our is building hypersonic nuclear weapons. They ve got autonomous nuclear torpedoes that their building, Lattimer Putin is always boasting about these, and so they ve always gotta keep an eye

Russia, but there also worried about India with whom the Chinese have all kinds of border disputes, underway now, and India has built up its nuclear force, its now getting pretty big. It's getting close to the size of the chinese food. Now. Most of India's nuclear weapons are built to counter Pakistan. India is great adversary here but the Chinese are worried about these as well. All of this suggests that there may be a regional component to this. In addition to countering the U S, so that's the second theory got it and then is a third theory that this really isn't about a military build up. It's mostly about diplomatic brinkmanship with state. What do you mean David was back in the last year of the Trump Administration, the new start

Treaty with Russia was coming up for a fight. Viewer renewal seem like a pretty simple thing to do, but, president from said that, isn't enough, you said I want a nuclear treaty that covers all the major nuclear power, starting with China. They said I want them in this as well. What seems highly impractical in part, because They weren't a party with the first treaty. Seed have to negotiate something entirely new, get through the? U S, Senate, get it through the russian process, get it through the chinese process and, and the Chinese came along and said forget about it. Who are you guys, you're sitting here with fifteen hundred and fifty deployed nuclear weapons, thousands more in storage and your committee

any about our measly three hundred or so it up. When you guys are ready the cut down to three hundred weapons, then maybe we'll talk, but until then shut up and go away, and then what happens? Well, what happened was there was a complete stalemate. During the Trump period and President Biden was sworn in on January. Twenty of any had fifteen days to renew this treaty before it expired, so they administration said, let's Stan new start and begin to think about ways of engaging with Chinese on arms control in the future, and the Chinese may be thinking that is in fact they get wrapped in two nuclear negotiations in the sure they don't want to come to the table with

a mere three hundred weapons right, as my friend Graham Alison that at Harvard who wrote the definitive history of the cuban missile crisis said if you're going to play poker and you sit down, table, and somebody said: I'm gonna give you a fifth as many poker chips as the guy sitting. Opposite you you're gonna, pick up. Walk away right, so they may well be creating some poker chips for themselves. They may be drilling these holes in the desert to say you guys want. No nuclear negotiation, let's start with parity, and then we can talk right to this theory is essential. Saying. The Chinese are looking at the american stockpile, realising that there eventually going to need to be doing some negotiating and saying oh, my gosh. We need to be building some poker chips, that's right, but there is also a trance. This is all a giant she'll get what you mean shall game. Well, they don't have to pee

a missile in every one of those two hundred and forty holes in the ground. If they just put twenty missiles in and are pretty stealthy about it United States may not know which one of those silos actually have. Alive nuclear missile and which one is sitting empty interesting. So so, given all of these possible motivations for China to build up its nuclear capacity here, which one of these theories is the leading contender right now, in your mind, David, I mean which theory do security experts think is most likely will, as has been true throughout nuclear history. The experts are all divided here, but I'd say the preponderance of the views. I've heard fall into two camps. The first is the Chinese want options and by building these fields they ve created

option, two vastly accelerate their force or to enter negotiations, has an equal player. But the second thing to remember here, Sabrina is that the chinese government now views itself as a full spectrum superpower. It's already got the world's second largest economy on the way to becoming the largest. It's got influence throughout the world in part because of this ahead of its telecommunications network reach around the world and the last element, a fall in the place is to have a truly global reach with their military and nuclear weapons are a piece of that. There are only a piece you need space.

Weapons which their working on you need a blue water navy. They can range around the world which their working on, but if you don't have a full nuclear arsenal in their mind, you may not be regarded as a full superpower and in the end that maybe what this is all about hearing you say this. What is going through my mind is that nuclear weapons and the nuclear age that we kind of thought was behind us. You know this relic of the cold war are really still with us that we are still in a nuclear age, I don't think it was ever behind. Is it just fell off of the front page headlights? We went through twenty years of more traditional conflicts counter terrorism in Afghanistan. and Iraq. We focused on chinese technological developments. It cyber capability, its space, capable,

the, but what we are seeing now is just a new phase. in the nuclear stand off, the chinese recognize that nuclear weapons are still their ultimate guarantors of security and we're not sure what happens Now now that the Russians are pouring a lot of time and money in the new types of nuclear weapons that the United States has tried to match that and the is moving ahead with what appears to be a significant expansion, even if there is a big shell game under way here, and so this may be one. Turning points in history, where we have to think I knew about nuclear arms control and what it was Take the ultimate. We eliminate these weapons because if one thing is clear in the past few weeks

They aren't going away Thank you David. Thank you, sir. For this podcast and the following message: come from a trade, a bald eagle isn't bald. a shooting star, isn't a star, and each trade isn't just for trading. There's lots of to put your money to work with e trade from saving for a time to starting to invest- and they have a team of financial Professionals- Give you support, so you can be confident your money is working hard for you to get started today. Visit e trade, dot com ass? The daily for more information e trade security is LLC Member Civic, here's what else you need Turner Day at a time when Washington Syndrome

This group of members by me came together, along with others, and decided we're going to do something great for our country on Wednesday, democratic republican senators took a series of major steps towards adopting president binds one trillion dollar plan for infrastructure during a new conference, a bipartisan group of centre said they had reached a deal on a bill that would up great roads, bridges, pipes and in that systems soon after the Senate advance the bill in a procedural vote on this boat, the yeas or sixty seven, the Naser thirty two. The motion upon reconsideration is agreed to but the infrastructure package still faces an uncertain path to becoming law. It must pass, and only divided Senate and manure

Around a potential republican filibuster, which would require the support of at least ten Senate Republicans and The move towards vaccine mandates for the government intensive on Wednesday, the Times reports that President bite has decided to require that all federal workers take the vaccine or be regularly tested for covert nineteen and Governor Andrew Cuomo the same requirements for all governments in New York to these episode Was produced by Rochelle Bond job Rob Zip Code and Michael Simon Johnson, it was by Michael Ben wore an M J Davis Lit engineered by Chris Wood and current these original music by Dan Power,

that's for the daily Michael Barbaro, see tomorrow.