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takes us inside the causes and consequences of the looming crisis. Its fight number twenty, nine Carl. We are talking here at about twelve o clock on thursday afternoon. At this very moment. In your estimation, how likely is it that the? U s government shuts down the deadline, is twelve one, a m on saturday I mean pretty likely and here's one good reason for that. The centre right now is now even scheduled to take a final vote on its emergency plan until sunday, which is not very helpful with me at a height, is midnight saturday. I mean there could be a comb by our moment or everyone says: ok, listen! We're gonna avoid this. Let us pass something to keep them

go away in panic could set in right now we're gonna get killed for this. Let's not do it, but right now the timetable time table itself is set to Emma shutdown got it. So we want you to explain in we only you can why we're going to be enduring this awful expire of a government shut down why it is now looking inevitable and allow the basic dynamics. Of course, Carl it's become very familiar to our listeners that republicans have a very slender majority and ever since they took over the house at the beginning of the year, that has meant that a very tiny group of hard right. Conservatives have been able to basically run the united states house of representatives and cabin mccarthy, so I take it back to his election for the

baker about twenty very hard core conservative republicans at various points in that election were opposed to speak mccarthy, so he couldn't really get elected without making some concessions to these people. Certainly, grants were going to bail about right, so he made a lot of promises back that none of them written down and all of us of ass. Take we see these promises and Kevin Mccarthy said he didn't want anything written down among those promises was to return federal spending to pre covert levels. That's what conservative republicans want in all that money went out the door for a lot of covert programme trail. The promise was to go back to pre coded spending but that just hasn't happened and they've been putting the heat on him to fulfill. That promise. That's basically what's going on right. That was one of the promises. Big spending cuts, one of the other promises and this one did get written down

was that at any single moment, under mccarthy speakership, a single house republican could call from occurring to be removed as speaker, which further empowered these far right, Republicans ass. We talked about and past episode because it gives them a kind of veto. Power over hasn't higher speakership and now, as you just established, he's disappointed them in that speakers. Right so you're, referring to once known as the motion to vacate, so he lives under this threat and they could bring it forward. So he operates constantly trying to figure out how to avoid having that motion called on him and, as I recall, the first really big time, we see that play out is a couple of months ago during the year debt ceiling debate this. I know these all get very confusing and powdered about that. That was the last time he faced a giant crisis of whether our government could function and it was

around, whether we might default on our debt write, which was a serious, very serious thing, more serious than has shut down. I would say right defaulting would have been the first time in history. It would have been an economic crisis, so Kevin Mccarthy, I think, recognised what was at stake in the that limit fight. So we worked through the night last night was finalized and he decided ultimately set out what the president said. Less work together to be able to raise the debt sealing the curve. The amount is meant to cut a deal with president Biden that set certain spending levels that dissatisfied alot of his far right members. We know at any time when you sit and negotiate within two parties, but you gotta

work with both sides of the aisle. So it's not one hundred per cent what everybody wants, but when you look at the countries and the deal ultimately passed in the house with more democratic than republican votes right, because in that moment he basically chooses the nation's financial health. Over potentially his own relationship with these farmer republicans who can kind of fire him at any moment bright, and we're very unhappy. What I see here in this deal is absolutely where the biggest abominations since I've been washington, dc trillions in trillions of dollars and debt for crops we fought extensively to empower each individual member of congress, unilaterally give our authority over to the speaker to negotiate a bad deal. How como lose the republican leaders always churlish next year will fight hard.

We really mean it next year, and that was when they kind of laid down their marker and said: listen. We are not going to let the business of the house go forward unless you meet our demands on spending and want to do that through procedural guerrilla war, and they did do and trust me. They ve been very effective and that dynamic is what's gotten us to this point to where we are facing a shut down. The government is going to say yes and its government parties that the government is going to shut down Well, let's talk about that, because Mccarthy very well understands the only way he avoids a shot down. Another potential government catastrophe is to do what he did when it came to the desk ceiling and the risk of the fall, which

to pass a bill that Democrats like and that some modern republicans like, but of course, as we have very well established here, that leaves him exposed to this Republican maneuver of trying to oust him a speaker right and that's a very real risk right now, because Matt gates republican from Florida, whose his chief nemesis right now a muddle republicans has said. If mccarthy exit deal with the Democrats, he will go with the motion vacant for covering the currently it's kind of the only way out of this mess. He has to cut a deal at some point. We have chuck humor and Joe Biden there's no other way to do this. The Senate is controlled by democrats and president Biden. Obviously, as a democrat till, he is in a position where he is trying to at least appear that he's holding firm against the Democrats. But at some point he has.

make a deal, so he decided to do something that he thought would appease the right and maybe get him pass this, and that was announcing an impeachment inquiry of president by right thought that could maybe satisfy these guys and give him some wiggle room on spending. Basically, but it didn't they wanted to impeach the president anyway, and the fiscal hawks or like, while that doesn't change mind on spending. We still want these spending cuts that even a lot of ever more mainstream house. Republicans, don't why. So you know this. Internal disputes has really nice things up and to use a technical term, not even an impeachment inquiry into the president. I'd states, based on what we have established Shaky evidence is able to buy Mccarthy enough goodwill with these hardware, republicans to avoid us hurtling towards a shut down. I just want to understand. Why am I

chorus cannot once again work with the democrats to save them stem and perhaps I assume that if he does that those Democrats, my they'll him out in eventually vote that the farmer republicans might want to hold ousted It would seem like a reasonable political calculation yeah. Well, I don't think it's all that reasonable michael. So if he makes a deal with the Democrats, there certainly going to be a move to oust him. Everyone has promised that mccarthy knows that. So your question is: are the Democrats going to ride to the rescue right? I've talked to numerous democrats about this, including the democratic,

leader, just yesterday, I came jeffreys from new york. Obviously he says we're not there yet we're not even thinking about it, I'm not sure they're, not even thinking about, I think their thinking a lot about it there just not talking about it and certainly not to me, but I think after the debt limit vote, the Democrats were happy with mccarthy. He was willing to take the risk, he saves the country's financial standing and credit rating and all of our formal one case right, wrecking the so I think if they had that vote, then I think he probably would have gotten help from Democrats right now. I'm not sure he gets any help from Democrats, because what did he do to appease the far right one? He didn't stick to the agreement and the debt lemonade and to he said: let's impeach Joe Biden so they're like. Why would we go with this? Guy right does and does not the keys to unlocking democratic support, bailing out

an agreement and starting a process that could remove their president yeah. So there is no certainty. Obviously the Democrats would help him, but boy Kevin Mccarthy want to be speaker. He'd allow a big speaker. I've never seen a speaker. I think I counted I've been around for a while. I've never seen anyone kind of relish the job so much. He stands in the rotunda in a photo line and shakes hands and take selfies with tour. The guy is really into so. He does not want to lose their jobs. Certainly in like an embarrassing humility getting thing on the floor- and you remember- we were all standing there watching these fifteen votes that it took for him to become speaker most people, I think, would have said. I don't really want it that bad, but he did, and he does so what I'm hearing you say as we should not underestimate the degree to which Kevin Mccarthy will cling. to this job with everything he ass to the very

last possible minute because he just wants desperately, stay on as speaker, and so this shut down will be the exact opposite dynamic of what happened with that debt ceiling negotiation, instead of being willing to risk his job to save the system. Mccarthy will pretty cool justly sacrifice the system to save this job. He love so much. We don't know yet what his moment of truth is going to be. He could still, capitulate here and say: okay, I'm going to do something to keep the government open. I'm going to work with Democrats, I'm going to take the risk a little irish, okay, don't walk away from a battle I knew changing. Washington would not be easy, but so far we have not seen that as he did in the women, we want to be able to win the policies if we ve been fighting for in telling the american and I

think right now he is putting his interest in that job ahead of the possible the questions of a shut down, which we are at this very moment careening towards- and you know that if it takes a fatal, have a site and it's gonna have big consequences. We ve been through this before, and we know that there is some pain, some real it's real pain for people back. Are hidden subscriptions draining your wallet, the average person has around twelve paid subscriptions and they might not remember subscribing to half of those rocket money as a personal finances that fight in cancels your unwanted subscriptions, monitors you're spending and lowers your bills. All in one place. Stop wasting honey, I'm things you don't use joint over five mill.

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assigning she's designing these incredibly ordinary basketball. Shoes she's, also one of the very few women to design sneakers for the biggest meal. At every time they sneaker grabs the hardwood floor. It sticky nooks and unstinting lipstick, injured and sticking to create a sound. When I look at a basketball speaker, I see design that's impacting on culture at so many different levels. Besides just sports. When I started reporting on why speakers squeak, I came to understand that we hear this type of sound all around us from the start, the violin car tyres. Even Finally, lobster the new york times explore how we bring more of life to life, times dot com, flash life. So for I want to talk about the pain that comes with a shut down, assuming, as we are now doing, that there is going to be shut down in the next day or two and this is not, of course, your first something, so you bring some will authority to the subject of this patent, not my purse.

Down? Rodeo is, as they say, I can't tell you how many I've been through, but I've been through long ones, short ones, medium ones, they all I have their own little dynamic, this one's a little different because past shutdowns ben, like over one big, she's right so overall bomber care right. That was a shut down. The Democrats forced us a very brief shut down in twenty eight teen over dhaka. The young undocumented immigrants brought here is kids and whether to get them. So the ship tromp had won over the border. While this is a little more amorphous right, but the government unfortunately knows how to do there's, a manual literate literally a manual, I'm sure there's many many manuals actually, but if this one happens, it's gonna and the weak, and so the first consequences you know, won't be felt as much it'll be kinda like as a slow rolling disaster. If it goes into

ext week, and you know there's a lot of things that happened of. Certainly things stay open, there's essential people, but they won't be paid son who works on capitol hill and he is not relishing the prospects of not being paid certain washington in the surrounding area, there's a lot of people who will be going without paychecks. If this oh for very long, the military will not be paid hung in the past. That's been avoided either through a special bill to make sure that they keep getting paid or the defence spending bill had already been passed to that part of the government was covered this time, not the case, so they wouldn't be paid it unless there is a special step taken pay them. That has not happened so far. Another really important group there won't be paid are air traffic controllers.

three hugely important to the economy and just to life in general right. We ve already seen a bunch of travel disruptions over the past months. So can you imagine what happens if there's some sort of slow down there with air traffic controllers, I mean: how long are they going to be willing to work without pay? Does like these jobs are stressful enough? Do you really want to being more stressed out by their economic worries? Right, and I guess we should add Carl, as our colleagues have reported in the times that there's a long time national shortage of air traffic controllers, it's well documented and the idea of not paying controllers as you've. Just raised might lead some controllers to

not show up at work, maybe call in sick and then you ve got. You know thousands of planes in the errors and not enough air traffic controllers and has an incredibly dangerous situation. I I'm not looking forward to catching a queen in those circumstances, but I think that this is a real concern. The people have what will happen to the air traffic control system. What happens to the airports also made air traffic controllers obvious? I ain't the only thing. There's other big popular parts of the federal government. There will be effective national parks. Are you still may be able to go into a national park, but there's not going to be any like facilities, open, bathrooms. Even- and you know, one of the big images from past shutdowns is trash piling up out on the national mall right because

people who would normally pick it up, aren't being paid they're, not working or not there and the government. Also like prohibits volunteers from my my recollection, is you can't go out there and pick up that trashed, so the consequences of this and the reach of it are very broad and here's another thing: it costs billions of dollars. What do you mean? There's all sorts of costs with the shuts down shouting things down, starting them back up I mean the federal government is, is a huge thing, and so you don't just got okay, stop you know, then you gotta restart everything. So there is an actual economic costs here that, of course, current was a bit ironic, for

the people who are triggering the shut down, who say that they want to cut federal spending you're saying on some level. This is going to cost the government more money. Yeah. Definitely true, I mean there are costs associated with it, and that is one of the great ironies here right, also interesting. Lawmakers get paid because of the constitution, so they can't stop themselves from being paid, which is also sort of not great look for them. No, not a great look when the military is not being paid and air traffic there's a bakery. So, given your experience with past shutdowns help us understand how and when and why these things become intolerable at some because they always do come to an end, there is just a question of how I think the last one was around forty days there and they do it, one kind of truism about it is once you get into a shut down, it gets hard to get out legislatively right. People get dug in and some people are going to go. Oh it's not that bad, but there are

I'll be back, I mean a travel disruption, don't be something that people will find intolerable, drags on it, and generally just people looking at congress going. What is wrong with you people honestly. I do think that that's a factor when, in terms people being mad at congress. Looking at them and saying, what's the matter with you, it doesn't feel like the blame here is going to end up being all that ambiguous right. This is a republican shut down through and through. So, ultimately, it's gonna be republicans who are going to have to decide its reached a tipping point right. This is really falling hard on the house? Republicans and I think that's a real concern for them going into the election next year that people are going to go. You know this is ridiculous. Now I know they're trying her best to wiggle out of it mccarthy, it was asked the other days

yeah, why are we having a shut down? He said astro by mccarthy, is trying to shift the blame right now, but I don't think it's going to work. The house republicans are going to bear the brunt for this one, and does that mean that democrats on the some level are over in the corner, with a little bit of gloom, the faces or do they worry that like, as with all disasters that splashes on them too yeah? I think a little bit of that, but I think, generally speaking, most people on capitol hill are like. We can't do this. This is horribly disruptive, but I think at the white house also, it's like people ultimately look at this and say well. The president's gotta do something, so I think that they are fairly sure that Kevin Mccarthy and the republicans are going to take the hit for this, but they don't want it to go on for too long, because then people start to say: why aren't you fixing this got it so it's a complicated little balancing act for democrats and forbidden cross. You said earlier when a deal finally comes and it always does com. It will

Definition have to be by partisan yeah, there's no way for it not to be that's what the debt limit showed. You have to have a bipartisan solution, chuck tumors been saying for weeks and even mitch. Mcconnell thing for weeks has to be by partisan, so it's gonna have to be there and then at that point will see how bad it is for cabin mccarthy right, and again, almost by definition, it will be bad for Kevin Mccarthy and then he will have only delayed. This biddable showdown that he fears so much that could endanger the job he love so much right. Unfortunately, all that's being discussed is only a temporary solution. The most viable resolution of this is now being discussed is in the senate, with both republican and democratic support, but even that, when only funds, the government through november seventeen

Hmm, so you know we're going to be having this fight again. You're you're, saying we're gonna be having this fight again again and maybe multiple times. Actually so the showdown for Kevin Mccarthy is coming. The only question is: when does it come and does he survive it? Oh Thank you very much. I soon we will be speaking with you again at some point in the next week. Unfortunately, that's probably true- I mean I, I think this is gonna, be a persistent ok! Thank you very much thanks, Michael thursday afternoon after we spoke with court on the. U S, government began to formally notify federal workers that a gun been shut down now appear.

To be imminent. all the way back. Support for this package in the following message come from emerson and emerson engineers. Designers them thinker has helped the world's most essential industries solve the biggest challenges of modern life from developing technology. The delivery through medicines that warp speed to software that turns clean energy into reliable electricity emerson. Innovation helps make the world healthier, safer, smarter and more sustainable. Go boldly find your future at emerson, dot, com, slash careers, Here's what else you need to know that I do not believe that the current evidence would support articles of impeachment there

is something that an inquiry has to establish. On thursday during the first hearing of house republicans impeachment inquiry into president bite, the store witnesses testified that republicans lacked proof. That Biden has committed in peaceable offences- I'm not here to date, even suggested there was corruption, fraud or any wrongdoing. In my opinion, information needs to be gathered and assessed before I would make such an assessment house republicans are seeking to show their Biden is improperly links to his and over sees business dealings, but have struggled to find such evidence that prompted a democrat involved in the hearing representative genie rascal to mark the proceeding as a waste of time. If the remedies that smoking gun or even a dripping water pistol, they would be presenting it today, but they ve got nothing on Joe Biden. All they can do

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