Today on The Editors, Rich, Michael, Charlie, and Jim discuss legalities surrounding the killing of Qasem Soleimani, Pelosi’s self-inflicted woes over impeachment, and who has the best chance of the Democratic presidential candidates.
- Rich: the Sherlock Holmes stories.
- Charlie: Clay pigeon shooting.
- Michael: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.
- Jim: Snow days in VA.
Dvorak Polka by Kevin MacLeod is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution license.
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The Editors is hosted by Rich Lowry and produced by Sarah Schutte.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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Does this and more on this week's edition of the editor
a much lower eightam joined is always by the right. Honourable Charles see W Cook Jim
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anything so envy D, the slow holiday new cycle ended emphatically about a week ago
When news came in on ethics
evening was that we had taken up chasm,
so a money and a precision drone strike and their mediately were on war? Fears
that the downsides, which worries about downside? Where would you
enough the trends about the onset of world war, three or I have read-
Give us better monitoring was unpleasant noodles waiting to see how IRAN would respond, and then we got the other night, a response that was deliberately calibrated not to provoke a further
reaction from the United States, and it is why how speech yesterday Donald Trump Card up pocketed what he
gained and increase deterrent effect from this attack and said they Iranians are standing down or basically back to that the status quo, which was an
its ongoing low level warfare and a major contention over their nuclear programme. What do you make of it?
there's a lot to say about this. I am like
I think actually most people on the right these days extremely
gap to call or outright opposed to a full on more with ran? I support, though,
What the president did with a couple of caveats, just that
paying attention to the senators were complaining that the briefings have been really shoddy
and bad end? We don't know
bond more with a proxy attack, that's a little bit more deniable in the future. But, having said that, I think
president's thinking was exactly right about it.
started. Stepping up these provocations provocative acts through its proxies,
against american allies or american forces out
we pulled out of the Ariane deal. The Washington Post reported that through DIP
has it in my compatriot, said if any of these result in the death of even
SALT in the death of even a single American. You can expect a vigorous response.
And in a few weeks ago, ran kills a
Tractor moons, three, an american contractor and wounds three servicemen, and this is the response,
the reason you have a military is to punish people that hurt your people.
And deter others from hurting or people?
took a limited, targeted.
Against irresponsible military target anorak, who had
commanded and shaped proxy forces in
I could kill, Americans was adjust target a proportionate response, as in proportionate to the end he sought with it
and it looks like the early returns. Are he got
Why would he want which is establishing escalation dominance and deterrence
This is exactly what motors, for this is exactly what a Jack Sony in foreign policy would look like, and if it is true that, when the intercept
published. A leak
of uranium cables in which senior government officials were saying that some of them
salami was kind of out of control into aggressive, and that, in fact, his actions were keeping America in Iraq.
Longer than they wanted us to be, as also happened
longer than I wanted to be
if salamis removal from the scene makes it easier for
America have a dignified exit.
From the Middle EAST. That dont from keeps talking about, I think
The huge win for the president I'd like to see the exit in the exit strategy, but overall I thought I thought the attack was justifiable. I thought his statement
at the White House was great everything in between that all the tweeting was horrible
going after earning cultural sites, and all that stuff is actually like
war, crime and a crime against human history, and we want to see those cultural sites have a better
stolen in the future than the iranian government as it exists now it
it undermines what he's doing it makes it hard for Boris, Johnson and others to support him, which they did very kind of cringing Lee
so I'd like none of the tweeting by just exactly what that was a deliberate limited
well targeted, well chosen strike against someone who deserve to be hurt both for strategic reasons and for America's honour for the
The morale of our troops that are in the Middle EAST, it's important to do that work
And it should be done in an end, its not some
we're gonna say like: oh, they just killed one of our contractors and we killed this really important general, while that inequality
station should not matter to Americans at all, said Jim. I think Michaels
that. This was a limited, very deliberate to attack the very specific
purpose. It was still stunning, you know you kind of all
orbed it now almost a week later, but when I first saw the Cairo literally could not leave those just beyond my imagining
anyone would target this guy cause you he had been considered off limits for for so long and so central to.
Regime and also to Michael
wait, there's just kind of an increasingly
brazenness tis behaviour, not just you know, format,
all these civil wars and proxy wars around the Middle EAST, but I just showing up on the ground like he's gonna stay at the holiday inexpressive, Baghdad and plan. This attack and newest Morris's then pick up this brief gazing in Europe by up to Damascus again. But this is the point- and I think we have to give
trump kind of credit for a servile, lizard, lizard intelligence, understanding, the dynamic of the conflict that at this level
this was such a staggering blow that it apparently
as far as we can tell right, now, sent the message that it was
an intended to get across, which is don't, kill. Americans,
you do. There's gonna be a serious price. Absolute
rich and effect. As of this recording, you have to say, things are going about as well as we could reasonably hope for
Considering the audacity of this action
no getting around the fact that so many probably was the second most important figure in the entire region regime. Next to the
it all up,
he had been responsible for all kinds of aggression against: U S troops in Iraq at your, he undoubtedly had a demons resume that made the
easily justifiable. But again, there was a kind of this sense that striking back
Directly against the arena regime was just was unthinkable, was off, limits would just be to darn provocative and when we saw that news there what's that sense of o long term,
this probably makes the world a ah said
replace you're, taking a very bad actor out the stage
but you're also the sense. The Iranians we're not gonna. Take this lying down. They're gonna respond in some way now
can safely say, at least as of this recording
but now it would send a strong signal to around by killing Sola money, everybody
up and down the chain of command uranium. Military now knows the arrange the Americans can probably hit whoever they wanna hit. Ah, we
must have pretty decent penetration of there.
Agents our intelligence community must know. Yet we knew where solo money was gonna, be exactly when exactly where,
This may have been helped by the Iraqis. You figure they may be helping us with some of them
and also the response to the uranium rocket attack couple nights ago corner.
Your times day. We had three hours warning and everybody was able to get into the air, the bomb, shelters and and all the necessary steps, overtaken we
They really intriguing comment is that the gene, a hassle the director of the CIA actually said
was probably the most likely response to the Iranians, we're going to generate new, maybe that's spin, or maybe that's after the fact, or something like that, but so far you look at the sea would say: wow a man
a really knows: what are we going to do and we all
also know how to hit them in a way that really hit some hard? You no sanctions against IRAN or great, but that makes it tough for the average or any and on the street this
actually goes right up to the regime and says no you at the top. You
pay, the price for these actions, and it's not gonna, be
minimal. You will be a smear on the side of the road on the way to Tibet. International airport right
can a marveling this
going really really well. I concur with everything Michael rendered. You said about the prison.
Actions are terrific. The rhetoric is not
having been set out. The president's address, sir, the other morning was probably about as good as it got from tromp, so so far
knocking on, would crossing our fingers saying, prayers and and all that this went about his wells, we possibly could have hoped for Charlie reacting Vive heard and also, what's your view,
The legal status of this operation there's been a debate
whether it was a legitimate killing under the rules of of war and basically effectively authorized through
attenuated train of reasoning, but a train reasoning by by Congress.
Or whether it was in illicit assassination. Yes,
I am convinced, mostly by David French, his view
This was legal because the Eu Imf is still in force in Iraq, but I think that
raises a number of important questions, even if David is correct that seriously
for a moment when this was a good idea or not, they sent a case here that trunk got this right on the merits.
But if we are relying on an instrument that was passed by Congress in two thousand to three
there was used to justify,
invasion and subsequent war that has largely been written off as a mistake? Isn't that
problem does not say something about Congress, it was injured.
Watching the reaction to this
people said we're about to see world war. Three some people said Trump once a full
scale war, perhaps to distract from impeachment. Some people
said. This is Jack Sony in in nature,
Michael Brendan Dirty among them. Some people said this is
continuation of America's role as a global
It s a country, we don't know what to make of this. We don't know how fits in with our strategy, because we don't have
Now, how fits in with our strategy? Because we don't have a strategy.
We're not sure whether we want to be assassinated.
People, are killing them in Self Defense Harvey you say it
not sure what price we would be prepared to pay if those actions
sk into something else. Congress has no idea. The american public has no idea.
This is just not a conversation that we have, and I
That's an enormous problem, even if this was
legal and I'm open to the idea that for once, it was it's not good enough. Is it
To save our view. You squint the law we pass seventeen years ago covers it. I think we have to go back to the drawing board
and look at what we want to achieve in Iraq as regards IRAN in the Middle EAST in general,
rather than rely on enabling acts from almost two decades ago. So in this case, I think the more important question than whether it was legal is why
Was it legal? Do we want it to be legal? Do we wish
the handover to the executive branch, not just Donald Trump. This cannot be.
That is only asked when a Donald Trump is president or when a person from a particular movement Open
He is president. Do we want to hand over to the executive branch a blank cheque to take these sorts of decisions which could then escalate? Is that what America.
America's Congress. Once I dont think we know the answer to that. That's what scared me far more than the idea that this would devolve into world war, three which I don't think was evident. I think that a train kind I left the station they like
very long time ago it as soon as Congress basically gave the pay
standing military, given the free rein,
present has as commander in chief you
We see these sort of operations going back. I mean George Washington Susie had troops, he owed fight,
and undeclared war against and another authorized war.
Yes, indian Tribes Thompson.
So the Susie as a Navy tens of the barbary piracy that I might not have known and gets authorization. But this
You know we were declared war five times in an hour
three and have had many many many more complex than that.
In Congress, does have you no power in these sort of
cases, we saw it in Vietnam. We thought next
american war towards the end,
Even Iraq, somewhat Congress can cut off the funding shop, but Congress can also,
repeal the EIA, math or next time it passes Urim and have it can right in a sunset clause so that its forced to debate it again. I think the point I am making is that if one argues that the legal basis for this attack was that the United States Military has the right to defend itself, it was in a country that Congress it authorized it to be in it was being threatened by a force within that country. Therefore, it took preventative
or retaliatory action. That's fine, but it doesn't answer the question of whether the United States should still be in that country. In the first place, which is a debate we simply haven't had I we will get bogged down in this, but the the Barbary parts affair. I read very differently than you just just for what it's worth and, and I think that the real break in congresses use of its powers
to declare and control. Warfare. Came after the Second World WAR, not merely days of the republic, so Anybody Charlie mentioned your admit that this was a jack zone,
an action which I fully endorse. This is why I think both size or freaked out about this were wrong because of the law
It is also acting as though it was George W Bush Circa, two thousand three again and Tucker Carlson's, arguing that trumpet been taken over by the NEO cons where, whereas Trump never pledged, I'm not
going to kill bloody minded terrorists with the with american blood on their hands. In fact, during the campaign and twice
and when he may suffer most Folsom statements against our various commitments and alliances around the world S sitting upon the S out of ISIS, which can't do without having some presence and in the middle east- and
I see this very much in keeping with that that kind of thinking
sort of attitude rather than a departure. From here I mean
I'm no fertilizers.
Figured out. I'm a dove, I'm a bit of an isolationist at heart, but you know
for all the argument of world war. Three was imminent is ludicrous
rain has no friends has no fair weather friends right, it has gets less
support from Russia when
when Russia can get more out of it than it loses. But beyond that, it's a pretty
friendless country, even in the Middle EAST, means its most
important analyze, Bashar, Al Assad, who is busy
that is ridiculous and into it mean, is what I like about. This was its limited, targeted nature at a responsible agent who is authored the
deaths of american troops in Iraq, and it was done in Iraq
under the EU. A math I mean this is a very different approach than saying work,
responded terrorism by utterly transforming the political and social, cleaner culture
The society that generated the terrorists. I mean this is
much more limited, realist
and deterrence is a part of keeping the peace. There is peace
your strength, so I've disagree. I found myself in disagreement with friends.
And colleagues in the cause of peace. Over there.
No, I mean I, I can see little bit where they're coming from worthy. They would say this
Skirmish began really when the United States withdrew from your Andy, all men around stepped up its provocation.
Since and now we ve had to respond and the drift of the american foreign policy has been subject to drift
Hence we pulled out of the Eu India on its drifting toward greater and greater conflict.
I see that I do see that as a danger, but this
is another way of ending it, which is just reminding the iranian regime, which I take to be a rational one, despite
its revolutionary origins. I take to bureau
rational one interested in its own survival and one that will you know.
One that needed to be reminded that Americans are willing to respond in defence of their interests and are willing to keep their word so yeah.
I mean I, I thought this is exactly what attacks on inform posse looks like this is the best of what you could have expected from Trump
particularly the pivot. At the White House, you know,
remarks to saying we want a better future,
wrapped around as well. That's exactly right! So Jim do you think
this means that we need a politically one, where the other or like everything else is not the kind of absorbing forgotten a month month from now
It'll probably be absorbed a month from now, but, having said that, I mean you're probably see some aspect of the trunk campaign focus on.
Four years ago he said he would destroy ISIS. An ice is largely gone
daddy is gone. Salami has gone in all that they'll be. This will be a key part of the president's art, but this too, in the thoughts iconic came much
as I was listening to you guys, first of all,
this made this a bit on the premature side, but that air ukrainian airliner that went down outside Tehran, the knight of the
iranian rocket response.
Nobody knows exactly why it is, but a lot of folks who study aviation sing. The most likely scenario experienced pilot well maintained jet,
I say this with some sort of anti aircraft attack from the Iranians
believing they were detecting some american incursion and they D couldn't differentiate between the passenger jet and a foreign fighters.
Fighter jet and that's what caused the plane to go down this road,
a floating around at the plane appearing to be in flames before it went down that you're not gonna, get that
I'm a routine engine failure or something like that. This impetus-
in time and a couple years, we ve seen a passenger jet liner go down because a russian AIR defence systems
probably anybody whose bought a russian air defence system in the last couple years, is probably wondering if these things are worth it in the second
Is it your big fear now, next month, to month after that is gonna, be some sort of iranian
spots through a proxy group rotunda wonder now. After this, IRAN's
traditionally. Deniable attacks probably aren't that deniable anymore. If God forbid
at a truck bomb goes off outside of U S. Embassy somewhere in the Middle EAST are really anywhere in the world. A lot
People can say gap, that's probably around now,
be somebody else. Could it be? What remains of Al Qaeda could be bought it
Iran's got let some time ago by is, if not God, Rio, that God forbid theirs.
We're Talkin Americans are rigorously. Ok, that's a real response time to go after these guys, and it will end up being that escalation that they seem to think they didn't want it to generate from the rocket
fact, you're not so check exit
questions to you. The solemn killing was the first step towards a piece
deal and negotiation with IRAN, the first step towards a more intense conflict, a first step towards the same old confrontation with IRAN, is probably the last
most the same old confrontation with IRAN. I think it fits neatly within trumps warehouse, given that he simultaneously went running for president said that he didn't
to get involved in.
Foreign wars and criticise the Iraq war bought sounded hawkish. At times it was gonna bombed, the out of people and so forth. This this is on brand he's not well set up to
change our relationship with IRAN as a result. Anybody I ten
it's the same old confrontation. You know
very faint, possibility that the IRAN,
I want to raise the very faint past
ability that the er
India is is revived in this. In
mode of the ACT of NAFTA. Sir
amendments reinstated and Trump claims to have made a much much better deal. I'm just gonna put that out. There's a
undershot possibility? We won't get all the demands. Pompeo made.
But when we left, but
Maybe maybe Trump is going to try to push this one. Pretty far can get it
after the twenty twenty elections. Whoever is president will extend another feeler to a about coming back to the negotiating table, either
Tromp or democratic replacement.
What does actually leads to something dramatically different than the old erect? Iran's deal is another story, but dumb
eventually, you will see both within the the number people on both sides who don't want to see this escalate. I would like to get her
something that is less confrontational will push it in this direction, but not until after twenty twenty one.
So I'd six third option is basically the status quo, but
war say I think with,
a negotiated outcome with IRAN.
Is more likely than all
war with IRAN so that
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so Jim. Gary we got pretty much speaking status quo with can have a staff
co operation, going on with the impeachment
nasty policy has now been holding for quite some time. I thought it was likely that she would relent right after the holidays may be sure relent quite soon
They have democratic senators, now saying this is absurd and pointless for her to call hold the articles of engagement, but
we record she still Haldeman,
yeah, I'm marvelling at this and I've got kind of you end up with a bit of it
this morning with some other folks, because this is also the week that Nancy policies on the cover of time magazine
The headline is your Nancy's Big gamble her or something like that. It's actually heard a black and white
two very heroic. Looking foes
Crops are really trying to convince themselves that this has worked, that somehow this has gotten them, something that they
have three weeks ago, by the way,
You look at the pulling numbers on five. Thirty eight marijuana there's been no change in public affairs.
And on impeachment that three week period market
but don't you it does holidays. The Americans decided what they felt about impeachment months ago.
And you know they they sat. There has been this idea that at some point,
out of of a veto, this dynamic that that somehow Mitch Mcconnell was just itching to hold it impeachment trial and
Eventually he would fold and he would call witnesses and he would agree to rules that the Democrats wanted to see.
I was reminded of during the government, shut down fight over Obamacare. This was probably twenty
ten or so, and I remember seeing a rally with then the young up and coming TED crews and
clearly one rally he sets up the light. We need
to do something that we have not done as a party in a very long time. We need to
stand up and win the argument, and everyone applauded and
If that's your plan, you usually get a loose, I hate to do
It is up to tell people that, but generally public opinion is set the way it is and public opinion only changes about a tie
like when the facts around a topic get changed the entire.
Conceit of the Obama administration was and we're gonna.
The present out there is to give a big speech is a joint addressed. A kind of that will change public opinion. Never work
are very rarely works. You really
to change the facts of
thing in order to get people to change their opinion of it, they're not gonna, be persuaded by speeches, people
the tune out the speeches. So this
the idea that the american public who's gonna rise up in anger that miss
Macao was not agreeing to rules that Nancy Pelosi thought was hunky dory.
Was always ass, an eye because there is this was always the equivalent of a blazing saddles and putting the gun to your own head and take yourself hostage.
Recalled and want to deal with this and by the way. I hope what you started. Democrats running for president did want to deal with this at this time. This
we weak delay is got. Nothing is made life more complicated for the likes of Bernie Sanders Elizabeth Warren Inquiry Booker, they recall overcharge Owen, Michael
and he's running for president surcharge. Germany view on the merits of of whether there should be witnesses or not, etc.
Well, I have a view on Nancy policy which I think is related,
It is that this idea, which she seems to have got from television on cable news. No less was fast
from the beginning and remained so because she,
is a speaker. The house, not some back bench representative.
The minority, without any power influence on what you said
actually doing here, is saying that it was incumbent upon her to lead an impeachment drive against the present
the United States, because what he did was sufficiently serious to warrant that, but that she had to dispense with the oversight.
Because it was urgent but not urgent, enough descended to the Senate. I judge
I dont understand what on earth
he stood leaving aside the fact she has no leverage. I dont know what she's do
It is imperative that we hear from
and ABC De then that person, those
people should have been called in the house the House has subpoena. Is that
sure about the Senate. There are some objections I can
see to the Senate and its impending role now suppose you could say don't bring.
This person they would serve as a distraction or bringing them and will be an abuse of power. Nancy place he could say what
politicians have already made up her mind. She could complain about,
it's a Mcconnell suggesting that he was called
eighteen with the White House, but to draw
close to your own open, ended investigation and then try to bully the other chamber into doing what you chose not to do I'm baffled, I'm I'm I'm absolutely baffled,
and that does seem to be the main thrust of the argument, not that the witnesses-
in the Senate.
To numerous all the wrong? People are not numerous enough that
The I keep reading in the newspapers from Pelosi sympathetic colonists is that
We need more information. What happens if there are no wit
season. We subsequently find out that there is more to this story. We miss a key detail again. Why didn't? Why did the house do it.
I am not an expert on impeachment, but from what I understand that they found is put in it.
Demarcation line here. The impeachment part of it is to be conducted by the house such that
The case has been made and the subject has been investigated fully by the time it reaches.
The Senate now the Senate can.
Follow its own rules and do whatever it likes. I suppose, but the Senate is supposed to hold a trial, not fail
the gaps that have been left by the House Nancy Policy, could absolutely
have forestall any of these concerns, except that the Senate would bring in people weren't germane to the question at hand or who served as a distraction had she wanted to. She did
She got played by John Dene and Lawrence tribe and Jennifer Reuben and co
and now she's trying to make up for it and in the present
she's losing her argument. This had to be done now that it was to urge that we couldn't wait. So I would
prefer, as I have said before, that the Senate took this seriously. I would prefer that the house-
it too, I don't think anyone involved- has taken this impeachment seriously and I dont think that the Senate scant conduct-
what, in an ideal world, you would want asked your trial for the third time president had been imposed in american history, but let's not less
not focus on the shortcomings of the Senate
and somehow whitewash the strategic blunder? That policy has made and pretend that
he didn't, have every opportunity to do all of these things.
She is now asking of Mitch Mcconnell. So everything
everything has been said. I just
by squint certain way. I think this is what she's thinking right. It's the clothes is driven by power,
and the Russian the House is to get past as political pain point for her moderate members as soon as possible, and then why not because
in this going anywhere it should. I hear I can be convicted in the Senate,
is entirely political thing. So
why not play with it and see whether just something comes up in there? Be a couple more witnesses who would be awkward for trump in and hurt tromp in a what's? What's the big downside,
to her and then there's also perhaps, if she's being more machiavellian an end up,
in short, a high democratic politics,
two delaying the onset of the Senate trial because that's gonna hurt Elizabeth, worn and Bernie Sanders. Presumably if they're not out and hustings
and I democratic Joe members running free in late January
I mean, maybe, if you squint, that makes some sense. I just think the damage done to moderate domain
the house, members is massive
In that you know, you base
If we had an argument before that
these moderate House Democrats accepted, which was this
my duty under the constitution. I believe
mutual defence and that's how they commenced.
That's right and you know who shall Goldberg at the times said that she found the snake
inspiring that there was this kind of. Do
march to do the right thing that the Republicans head.
Runway and destroying our constitution in our democracy, but
if it was like to damaging to them these into freshman democratic house members were standing up for what's right
and so, in other words, the baseline, that Mcconnell and Republicans we're just gonna spike this.
Volleyball as soon as it came over, the net was accepted, and that was part of the political calculation of just. Let's do the right thing
now, that's taken away in words tried a puppeteer, the Senate. It doesn't work that way. Ninety eight impeachment was,
ass in the house and within hours the impeachment officers were sent drama
the key to walk over to the Senate that Saturday afternoon, I think it was an
liver, the articles and begin, but you know, oversight
and now I d,
No, I dont know what the end game is here,
Recalls, gonna, have fun, choosing the pain,
and dumb. It will see
although I think Jim
made the most important point right at the start of this, which is that pulling on imports,
basically has returned to wear
was before Ukraine Gate so
I don't think you quite has. I think it's it's even but before Ukraine,
gate. It was underwater by lieutenant
after you, ve added no Rossman from commentary, the basically one guys changed, my charming nearly one. Overall, the Democrats and but but that that's wherewith, that's the point stasis that with reach here.
So anyway, I just don't see, I don't
with the point, was it like has transcended
undermined a lot of them
arguments and I think it undercuts the moderate Democrats and in Gary.
Exit question to you, yes or no, there will be witnesses in a central trial. Yes,
but not the ones that Nancy Pelosi would laugh at the hunter bite. You think I got a Hunter Biden thing I've I think event
there's this, what my senses usually the denomination to how much they are not
so we are well. We want only the ones make the President look. Bad
can have any these other one. So
I think she will wait. She will wait, she will wait.
As we been having this conversation, she's had her press conferences said she's gonna. Do it soon, but should specify what soon means I know
call would love to get this. Are the big bang boom right off his desk as quickly as possible? I think the Trump believes that this
thing is gonna work rooms. I they eventually trumpet starts ignited. Let's get Hunter bided there
and if you're already gonna ruin the days of Elizabeth Warren and Bernie
is that all these other democratic centres? Don't you want to ruin the day of Joe Biden? To till I got, I don't know, I don't know what Ms Mckenna think.
I have no idea who never gives anything away, and I think at the moment he's absolutely content to watch
Nancy Policy Flail and she is flailing because her own party is now putting pressure on how to send me transmit the term is being used, the impeachment articles to the Senate. I don't know
I don't know I mean this is wait a minute. What site I don't know yet. I ll actually get away like the first time ever. I dont know married. I heard your year, there were already there will be, wouldn't I think there will be witnesses
only comment I wanted to make. Was you know this is what we
for living with leaders who are like you know as Luke Thompson months, Sediments Pub Pike S public
we decomposing in front of us is just makes no damn sense
Sir, I'm gonna say no, and I think my Connell's
Strategy and approach, will probably work, which is that
we do any game it out. You think kind of Justin.
Text terms, all right, we're going to have opening statements for the managers. I can do that afternoon, but instead you know it is stretches for like two weeks at all. All of these opening
procedures and arguments and his calculation is by then with centres. Having just sat there and said nothing that
they'll be zero appetite for fruit. Extending thing
especially witnesses that we didn't hear
I'm already in the house.
And then I also think is as a practical matter there they'll just both sides, a kind
stand down, you know. Is it if, if you're getting
you are gonna, get Hunter Biden right and
I don't think Democrats want that I dont think girl are. The presence defenders will want to hear what John Bolton
to say so. I think probably Vienna Day, though they'll be none and he's he's acquitted in life moves are so that
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amid the impeachment in amid the killing of solemn money,
and, despite, I would say actually, despite Luke's comp comment a couple months ago on this point,
asked about Joe Biden decomposing.
Front of our eyes seas, I think been actually better. Last four or five weeks than it has been before, maybe not the the highest
the standard but said a little more spring in US step, and it has demonstrably had a couple a good weeks and in
meanwhile Bernie Sanders, who also looked to most of us, be decomposing in front of our eyes. Had a heart attack is
as also continued to gain more momentum
and say you, you look at the rays from certain angle and looks like maybe it Abiden Sanders race that
Our people would have forecast at the outset
you make of it
I went to another, don't know, don't worry
but I will say that this does her mind me. Why is so difficult to predict these things especially week in week out because events change the landscape and because.
Various players affect one another. I feel
a little nervous about saying this because of course, could come rolling back, but you do get the feeling that
Elizabeth Warren is fading that
star is burning
little less bright, that her rationale for running has been undermined by some of the mistakes that she's made and that the opposite has happened to Bernie,
Bernie, whether he's right or wrong, has set out a clear
position on the killing of ceremony. In fact, ass, we record in this port cause he's introduce.
In a bell into Congress. That would prevent any
war with IRAN from being funded unless it had been explicitly approved by the Senate and the house. He
may of the story continues gain little bump from this as to the candidate on the record as being against for the conflicts, of course, if it disappears, maybe by the time we talked about this next week
something else will be dominating the headlines in the primary. I'm not convince it fight and is having
week so much ass. If he remains the default option,
and no one has yet eaten enough into his support, especially support among a big component within the democratic basis, african american voters and his panic voters to knock him off the pedestal and of course it if he stays there. He will win by default. But I dont see much from Biden that the odd money would perhaps be on Bloomberg, taking some of that space up, and if that
I started to happen, then than Biden could potentially be in trouble. So yeah Bernie has a rationale for running. He's, always had one of the best rationales for
and yet a better rationale. I think it two thousand sixteen Alice
Never really impressed me such something of a fraud. To be honest, that seems to be more obvious than it was Biden, remains the default option. Boot judges over before
mean. Maybe it momentum breaks his way he could he could do our body it does
remain fluid and I think the chances of this
quite a long and gruelling process that possibly
ends up with a contested convention. I know reporters say this all the time
time. It does seem much more likely than usual.
Remain remain. Hive said Jim, like Charlie, I think it's obvious was with Warren
last step and you can see her fading but, like Charlie, I hesitate
a little bit to say that that's exactly what I thought was happening to
Bernie Sanders that he is being eclipsed by her say two months
but it just seems as though this was before
or handling the salami, killing and encapsulated a real flaw in her
Canada see wears her initial statement.
He comes out and says you're kind of
in stream democratic thing. He is a terrible guy. Cheats used the word murderer.
But I really word- I worry about the downsides here and has done from there to handle this challenge and easy stumbled into something. He too, he doesn't know what the end is gonna be of,
and then she gets in a ratio on on twitter by the left. That thinks it's good,
meaning too much to say, solemn on is a bad guy and an often she starts referring to him. As you know, a high government official and
and nothing else and then on the view, candidates browbeaten
and a good way badgered by me.
The cane and conceding again that he's a terrorist but obviously didn't want to say it, and it took repeated questioning for heard it to say it again, whereas Bernie
just you kind of he put to stake down, will left most position on on.
Says in so many other things, and there is no there's, no question that that he's gonna stick, there's no wobble because east
utterly sincere about a year
long time early to no regular listeners to this. Podcast will probably remember
that I think out of the four of us. I am the most bullish about Joe Biden chances and, as time goes by adding I'm getting more and more bullish, some folks,
they say that actually addressed more full of bull, something
the one thing that comes to mind is,
People at age is actually not in great shape. He really needs to have a really good night in Iowa one
he passed those early states. He really is ah below that fifty
percent threshold, you need to get delegates- are still having real trouble amongst African Americans
and so a bunch of publicly in Iowa New Hampshire. Both of these states, you got three can
It's in the mid to high twenties
and Elizabeth warned is around fifteen and both of em
of the idea of a is Elizabeth Warren. You know sinking if it was
with warrant is in fourth place in Ireland. New Hampshire. Cannot everybody that's it, for I don't see how you say. Oh, but you know I mean- maybe union organizers in Nevada could come through, but I think that actually more likely to go for Sanders. Sir,
the Carolina does not seem like the natural spot for Warren to make a great come back, that's full of older,
African Americans, that seems like Biden territory,
if it doesn't happen big for for Lisbon, worn in those first, two states she's in trouble and the same thing is true for put at edge
clay terms of structural organizing there, like I said
because they're so close. The difference between getting twenty five percent of the vote and
Twenty percent of the boat could be the difference between first place in third place and if Europe
but I got Joe Biden can survive a close,
Place finish in those first DO states mayor, PETE Cat,
mayor. Pete really needs either a win in Iowa or a close. Second in
for those states- and so my sense is by now
Hampshire. It's very conceivable. This has turned into a Biden versus Bernie Race,
and the next in the cottage of out of that is that
Jason Riley had this good column in the washed in Wall Street Journal.
Basing prepare yourself for President Sanders that was the headline, is a lot more hype than his actual column was. One thing
worth noting, as you really haven't, seen that many people, particularly the establishment coming
I'm taking a lot of shots at Bernie Sanders? Some of this is because nobody people are really seems that big, a threat for much of the stretch, some of the
because I come on who say shots at the old guy who just had a heart attack. But is it
down to establishment guy, like Biden verse.
you can see the Obama folks who basically have not like the way Bernie Sanders. His campaign is an implicit criticism of the Obama record,
you're, going to see the old Hillary Clinton. Bernie Sanders made a whole bunch of enemies in the Democratic Party and when push comes to shove- and it comes down to two candidates there going to be-
can be non Sanders candidate. So I think, all at all the outlook
Joe Biden is pretty good, even those you guys we're not he hasn't had. He himself has not had a great couple weeks as just everybody else's bigger problems you so much,
Jim Eluder, some of these Paul numbers- and this is why I still think- is its
it's really flew a race is not is fluid, as I thought, because I thought you know
but our someone with his second come on. At the end, we don't we
seen any real evidence of that. There is little uptake for her and I were, but you still quite far behind, but we,
sat in a new Monmouth Paul New Hampshire, Booter judge twenty by
nineteen Sanders eighteen, worn fifteen, anyone can win that right.
Average, is Sanders. Twenty one point: five Biden, eighteen point: eight Buddha judge, eighteen point three and worn fourteen point: eight is basically the same
picture in ILO where I'm like a real, clear averages,
average there are sanders. Twenty to boot,
twenty one point: seven Biden, twenty point three and worn fifteen point: three, some really just at a flat out three way tie with the fourth candidate, just a step behind, but certainly
totally within striking distance. Here. It's a foot raised this point. Although I'm impressed by burning these results,
and at the very beginning of the cycle I said, burnings really formidable and create you could be our next president and don't count em out and then round the term of the heart attack. I thought he was feeding or rising and I started thinking I maybe he just you know it's like the Mayflower
whatever he stings the party infects it with their his ideas and doesn't survive, but
that's not true either. I think
I think it would be very dangerous for the Clinton and Obama folks to go after Bernie. I think that could have.
The opposite effect. I still think
Still think, voters are in the mood to do things. Establishments don't want them to do across western Paul
and that includes within the Democratic Party, and I think, if you get this concerted effort,
of the professionals, saying don't
four Bernie! It's going to
cause a rally effect to Bernie. Make him seem like.
Someone who can appeal to real american voters and not just to Ben
goods and that cohort of apparatchiks in the Democratic party. So
I'm very I'm getting
Bush on Bernie, I think,
If he comes out on top and I were, I should think he could start sweeping that.
How do you know a few if he comes out on top and I won't be big enough- a surprise. It'll be momentum going to New Hampshire where he's well
listen to win, and then I think you know you
see Biden, support among African Americans crumbling. I think they're showing themselves more open devoting for a Bernie. I think
other being the burning Biden race
then in the college, educated stuff, white people like race,
that war and in Buddha having that's it.
Like a losing race at this point, what Bernice SAD a week or so
show about Biden has begun taken more direct shots at him that if you wanna be Trump, you need the enthusiasm candidate, who has the grass roots army?
abstract- that's not crazy in the abstract. Actually, that is correct. Your problem is one of these guys. A socialist soft cleared socialist and, in the other, isn't exe,
question? Do you Charlie percentage odds that, by the time
of South Carolina. This will be a job
Bernie Sanders race, I think quite low
I think this is gonna, be a war of attrition beyond South Carolina,
side save thirty percent, so you think it'll be obeyed and multi candidate. Still, I think, maybe,
it'll be a multi candidate race through South Carolina S, Jim Gary
I think, the knight of the South Carolina primary. We will be saying that all this has now turned into a binding versus Anders race
and then we will find a super Tuesday, where the AIR War of MIKE Bloomberg will have you no boosted.
Numbers and that same exact
Night it'll seem like a two candid race, but it could turn into a three cannot re shortly thereafter, just by MIKE Limburg spending so Jim. If, if you are right
two months ago and assign a Bloomberg should be taken much more seriously than all the rest of us thought I'll. Never forgive you get this just now,
dont be right, but a lot of experience and got well empty,
more inclined to think you have to finish one or two in both
were New Hampshire to get a serious ticket in the south.
So I mean I think it could be over the night of Iowa right if there's, if anyone establishes maybe like up a plus six point, total victory
I think they can gonna win the nomination and he's going to the rally effect will be very quick as it was for Trump really. Two percent of shots
I think it's like a ten percent
I'll see you think you're the opposite. Shall you think someone just gonna be ok,
I think someone who's gonna. I think it's basically gonna be a front runner to be on the weighting summons.
Yeah baby we're gonna be on a victory march. Anything Rome had be Bernie from Ireland. I think
Bernie I mean
and then I think it was, I think, there's a coin. Flip
in a year, so we could be watching the trump boy
Johnson Trade deal
going down or a year from now we will be watching the Bernie Sanders. Mellow Sean trade deal after a socialist France exits the
the European Union Mean ICE still. Think big surprises can happening more politics,
So I agree Jim was saying earlier that Biden has more path and more options, so
Biden, couldn't you to finish a third and an eye
still be a going proposition depending on the Mexican, its above them, and how closely close he is, and if he wins,
I were enormously for him towards denomination
whereas you know Buddha, judge or a worn if their third in an hour, maybe even second like the case of Buddha judges, it just is just not enough. I guess I would put a a bird
bite and raise the odd, probably about fifty percent, say I think it's I think it's pretty high at this juncture, but it still it's really bunched up anything can happen
those early states before it move onto a couple. Other things work. Let me
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come in and drink a beer with all of us at various locations around the country. So
before we go, let's hit a few other things Charlie. You went, Sir recently clay, pigeon, shooting.
Did it hadn't been for a long time? I was in Florida that further south
Furthermore, I am now, and they had, of course, the whole bunch of stands. It's just so much more fun to shoot at a moving target than it is to stand that arrange. Do you call it clay, pigeon shooting in America? By the way I wondered if that was a british ism clay pigeon,
skin? I'm sure, I'm sure the paradise delighted that you chose clay pigeons as a absolutely
it's a great I'm. The last time I went was at helstone. Helstone has a fantastic skate shooting facility, and this is a little bit different cause.
It's based out in the middle of nowhere around the swamp with palm trees, and you
the feeling that the view straight off a little back from the path he might
see a snake or an alligator, but I suppose it wouldn't
after an enormous amount of your carrying a shotgun envy,
you'd. He recently watch once upon a time in high with you.
I met daddy, don't go to sea films that,
there is, I have to wait until there's vacation
and we know Itunes, rentals and content.
And he knows once upon a time in Hollywood.
It's getting fetid in Hollywood leading up to the Oscars. I can't believe this thing was even made considering how
First of all, it is an attack society, the old school real,
dude against the against the here- and I hope I mean these- I mean
I mean my somewhat overrated. The message was like it would have been better for us to kill.
Hippies before they killed Hollywood. California, America hurled itself. It is, but I mean it is
it's an astonishing little film, and it's actually, I think, the most profound film that
the weird mind of current international can make because it is almost fun
neighborliness and how clean this can save us and dumb made me
people won't read it that way. Those taken
fun, weird romp, that it is, but I actually, through
in establishing an unkind of profound Miko in
gonna, have within a few hours.
The headline on Meteorite National review rights across the massacre of hippies. I mean that
no, no change from the first from our reputation in my problem there
we call a little movie, but others wait too long way to baggy and in their greatness in it, but but it was too self indulgent daughter. I think this was Kyle's. Take imposture,
Turkey does way to violent. For me, sir, I literally could not watch any of the US sequence. Andrews slow good.
That's so Jim Geraghty you have been experiencing so called snow days in Virginia
it out to the delight
up enough. Do not have any ability to deal with it
four Charlie snow is entirely theoretical Duff down in Florida, for you guys up in New York or used to it
the greater DC area Northern Virginia affair
Ex County, my community
and to is really in that sweet spot where were north enough to get snow pretty regularly in winter, but south
I do not have any ability to deal with it. Fairfax guy,
schools granted to every year. We have an annual snow mega panic and over reaction,
across college campuses. People are worried about the reaction of snowflakes. Here we actually panicking at the sight of a snowflake
We had earlier this week in DC area about one or two.
Winches during the evening rush hour on Tuesday. I bet they that's bad snow. During rush hours, gonna be a mess. They let this be a thorough work
get out earlier on. One o clock apparent
during the air strikes. Nobody could reach people the Pentagon because they went home because of the snow. That's reassuring
kind of figured, they keep operating even in wartime the basis
we had one early dismissal from school makes perfect sense, Fairfax
public schools, I give you know reefed only make sense, and I figured ok.
These guys are nervous. Nellie is probably gonna be ice overnight. They'll prob,
we do a delayed opening.
Schools totally cancel yesterday hold back.
Holding had melted. My boys could not go out and sled because by night
Thirty everything had melted. It was more. She was well above freezing, but no, they got the whole day off, but I didn't know love spending time with them. When I'm supposed to be working
That's it! I we panic every year, there's nothing! I can do about it. That's just the nature of living. In this area
so I love Sherlock Holmes stories. I read them all in high school and had returned to them since then- and I was doing Christmas shopping last minute, Chris Shopping at bards noble and this coffee bar,
Noble edition of the adventures of Sherlock Holmes caught my eye and kind of like a foe nice addition like it looks like it's it's nice, but has actually really cheap the five ten dollars. As I go, I not
in some of these and an holidays and at first ass kind of disappointing to the first one, our red was the the five orange pipes, which is just a terrible
story. Not the whole thing is basically solve by sharks homes taking in cyclopaedia off of his shelf than reading about
k K K,
so I will really did die totally. Mr member shock, how has this is wonderful?
I thought, but there, when I dipped in some of the others might my faith was was reaffirmed reaffirmed this is just what a great characters and an of literature and
highly enjoyable. So with that, let's go to our editors picks Charlie Cook. What's your pic miles is PIC is
by John how Russia, one of our Buckley fellows on the case of March
investors, city of Boise, which the Supreme Court declines to take up essentially
night circuit. How that any laws passed at the state or municipal level that prevent the homeless from sleeping on
street are a violation of the eight amendments: prohibition on cruel unusual punishment. This is, of course,
not true in any originally sense, and it has caused a number of problems, including for those homeless, people themselves.
John, runs through why the Supreme Court's refusal to take this is a big deal Jim. What you bet
I very often a fan of my Co Paneless, Michael Britain, dirty even though not always agree with em right for restart taping him deal mentioned that he's a dullish
conservative running a generally pro trumpet guy, certainly a more pro trump guy than I am ah but
writing, particularly in his piece about us alimony, killing trumps rhetoric is dangerous and unproductive. I think my
go calls it as he sees it, and what,
People like it or not, and this means that is done
sky. He thinks trumps did the right thing here, but he's also saying that everything trumpet said about hitting cultural sites etc is not helpful and is creating unnecessary
a box, and I suspect I I've checked into the comments,
even as we should
a lot of people who are used to agreeing with Michael Brent Dirty are not getting what they expect from Michael Bren Dirty, and that does not that's not easy. It's near
that play a reader say I want you to say, acts well, you're, not some days, you're gonna get ex some days, you're gonna get. Why did the job? My job is not always make you happy my job,
to tell you what it is and maybe you'll like it. Maybe you don't some
I think you did a great job on this. I think you're you're columns of this very powerful, direct and saying what needs to be said here here:
and be, what's your point,
other Buckley Fellow Mattie, Kerns rupees common. What the Cyprus gang rape can teach us it's about this awful case of a british
teen who was vital
it by several men on a working vacation in Cyprus and how she was.
Millie by the authorities and betrayed by her culture.
Maybe he's just she's a bucket
Fellow here an hour, I would say: she's already meet herself an essential journalist in the states, and you should just be following everything. She does. I praise
pic is the new cover story, the penetration of and are which is a big, and I mean big and more than five thousand more peace. By
Lyman, Stone demographer on the fertility crisis in Amerika and the fact that we're having fewer babies just of effects
all sorts of things, he argues about our society, ranging from the sustainability of
entitlements to rate sponge ploy ship
to our willingness to fight wars authorized or not, Charlie,
it's a very eye opening in peace and I high.
Recommended to everyone
that's it for us
you, been listening to a national view. Podcasting we broadcast, we transmitter account as game without the express written permission of now
our view magazine strictly prohibited. This podcast guess been produced by the incomparable, Sir Shitty
who makes a sound better than we deserve. Thank you, Charlie. Thank you, Jim. Thank you, Michael thanks Door,
and two dividend cafe, and thanks, especially to all of you
listening where the editors and we'll see you.
Transcript generated on 2020-02-24.