« The Editors

Episode 208: Are We Getting Restless?

2020-04-17 | 🔗

Today on The Editors, Rich, Charlie, and Jim discuss new developments concerning the virus’s origins, Americans’ increasing restlessness under lockdown, and much more.

Editors’ picks: • Rich: Joseph Epstein the latest print issue. • Charlie: MBD on “The Task Forces Should Switch Members.” • Jim: Rich on “The Absurd Case against the Coronavirus Lockdown.”

Light items: • Rich: On getting rid of his beard. • Charlie: Eating alligator. • Jim: NFL draft simulators.

The Editors is hosted by Rich Lowry and produced by Sarah Schutte.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
did the virus indeed come from a chinese lab is the lockdown backlash upon us and heavy over Acted will discuss all this more on this week's edition of the. There is another flaring up. Joint is always by the right honourable Chelsea, W Cook and the siege of authenticity, Words Jim Gary, The notorious mpg will return soon. You will say to an ash view. Podcast response to this week is the bonds and group or about them in due course of listeners pie Yes, on national you dot com or do I have you, but it easier for you and better for us if you made as part of your feet it
any the stream streaming services out there from Spotify the Itunes and like despite cast, please give us a five star review on Itunes. If you dont, like this part cast, please forget Sir anything so Jim Garrulity were you doing dances vindicate in your home office when word came I think it was during a trunk breathing two or three days ago or recording Friday afternoon, when John Roberts and a question broke, the news that fonts have had reports had done reporting that said sources in the government, had concluded or tend to believe that this virus did indeed escape from I lab in an accident and.
Source characterize. It is perhaps not catastrophic government cover up of all time. Well, Firstly, I think that assessment is accurate I didn't do enormous dancing because our dance very much I also would have been nice. If, obviously, you know on the right, sources, would have been nice. Obviously little more specification about who these sources were. It wasn't like government source as it was just sources, but that that said this, this line up with various other reports, David Ignatius column, and things like that when and you know enough to my own horn here, but you know I felt like what I'd laid out so far. Put together a lot of what I think are easier. Compare crisis, circumstantial evidence for anybody peasant, It already go, google it, but the general just is I I think, will probably never know with one hundred percent certainty. I think the right end she that
If this is evidence of this, an exit a league exists, the Chinese have almost certainly destroyed it. By now. They we denying this until this on burns out of energy, but you know earlier in the week I wrote some who's gonna make him pinpoint as much as I've those who have wanted this case, but I think as much as I have been fascinated by this possibility and not been quick to dismiss it as an impossibility. Comes from the fact that if this is a accident at a lab, in a very strange way. This is the optimistic assessment because without real three possible ways this got to four for possible ways. I guess you could say that this buck this virus could have from bats to humanity. The first is that somebody just happens to get bit by about somewhere in o ends up catching the viruses and somehow they just ended up in the who and on seafood market.
The other one is that nothing when the probably got a little less discussion that had deserved all. People use back guano over fertilizer, not just in China, but all over the place. Parliament really good, fertilized The problem is when you are in a cave, collecting vat guano this. Besides the utter disgustingness of of the thought You are putting yourself at risk for x, Well, you d viruses, and we have known for at least fifteen years, if not well before then bats are just these deep reservoirs of all kinds of viruses, so if you are interacting with a bad you're putting yourself at health risk it, oh by the way here in the United States. If there's a bad in your house in the safe, they touch they tell you about wanting in the arabian shot. You no doctors, take the sort of stuff very seriously, third possibility is that this comes from a bat or pengelly that ends up being consumed at the Hunan Seafood market. There are various reports, rightly say nobody remembers bats being sold there. Another step is illegal, so it's possible. People are lying to invest skaters, but the general this is now that's a possible one or we,
these not one but two labs in the city that are working on typically on corona viruses in bats. Now, one of the ways of looking at this is that if there was a terrible virus, new virus that broke out in Atlanta Georgia a lot People would say: hey CDC headquarters is right. There did that have anything to do with it. If one broke out and Frederick merrily, people would say, wait a minute. Wherefore Fort Dietrich is right there and that's where the army researchers, this stuff did, why you always that why this rub broke out here We also want arms razor resourcing but although scenarios thy laid out getting every law, in the world that handles dangerous, contagious viruses to handle their safety rules. One hundred percent, all the time that might look that might be hard running is achievable, like. We never had an accident nuclear missile watch right. You know when people understand consequences of a mistake. They take their work very seriously when, if the other option it was at a wet market. Well, though,
shut down every what marketed America there I was in China. We need to shut down all the animal poachers who are doing these species all across the world were probably ever going to do that and if it's just peace using fertilizer for fur for their fields, collecting back guano need to stop people from doing that, because if all these things, which are still going on right now, there's still chance. It somebody's gonna encounter some other bat and gets mother strain of corona virus. That could be even worse than this one. So, our goal is to make sure this never happens again. The lab accidents scenario is the good one. That's the easy one! so maybe that's it. I was stirring my thinking in this area. I certainly don't break them. We estimate of Limited, which any government says and look there have been in a lab accidents at the city. The food and Drug Administration found samples of smallpox in a closet bracket. Twenty forty dont tell
that the war on Institute a so professional and so well trained, ah, that it could not possibly have made one of these mister We also should give a shot out to Josh Rogue into the wash imposed to point to the State Department memo. That said, specifically, U S scientists had toward them, and walked away, saying they don't have enough train people to handle these sort of stuff properly or safely. That's probably as close as we might get to a smoking gun in the situation. Yes, Charley S, Jim alluded to that the Fox story and altogether certainly done since the case. It's anonymous sources sudden clears intelligence sources is not cleared where these people are in government what capacity their operating. But it's it's pretty important story. Nonetheless,
and it just goes to the Tennessee and our political culture. That's been prickly accented during this crisis of their distinct things that are deemed forbidden. Thoughts right was just a people disagreed with Tom cotton when he first floated- and he just said this- might this might happen when he first loved that he was mocked is pilloried? He was a fact checked.
Then down and that the system is set to Billy of it was. This is something you can not think happened or you're, not not a rational person, the other that baffles me. I must say to James Point about conspiracy theory becoming perhaps the correct theory. I agree that it would be good if it did and that's not because I am hostile towards the Chinese Communist Party. Although I very much am it's because
is a far less scary thought, as british writer is, it left ram. Could David around a virtually wrote a book about conspiracy theories that I quite like, and his central thesis is that the conspiracy theory is held by the person who desperately wants it to be true because the alternative scare them it's scary, thought thing you could be struck by lightning scary thought to think you could be hit by a meteor scary thought think you could get caught the prospect of nine eleven having been planned by a man.
A cave and executed by nineteen foreigners on tourist visas with all the suffering and damage that it causes a scary one, much easier. If George W Bush planned it, you can remove George W Bush, you can uncover the plot, then it won't happen again much more forgot there too, that everyone in the world and David around every says. This is why we gravitate towards conspiracy theory, because it takes out the randomness. It takes out the chance If we can just work out, all of the answers will be fine. Well, in this case, this doesn't look like it's a conspiracy, theory and Jim says. It's comforting one level to imagine that this was an accident. You can improve the safety standards in a laboratory. He probably can't regulate all the food markets and also
you got, regulate all of your interactions with nature. You can't control where animals decide to go and what they decide to do. So. I I agree on that. I think with with I'm cotton, there is a double standard. Hair progressive tend to believe a rational and that they are interested in science, but they hold all sorts of peculiar theories and believe in all sorts of conspiracy
this one, though just hits a number of their trip wise. For a start, it assigns blame to a foreign nation. Tom cotton is somebody who is relatively close to President Trump. President Trump is considered not without caused to be a xenophobe. Therefore, Tom cotton must be indulging xenophobia and it was of course, picked up and run with on the channels in the outlets that the young people don't like, but Tom Cotton, maybe have been right. Don't comes not an idiot Tom Cotonou, somebody who is clearly interested in this area, if you remember back to the a bowler outbreak in two thousand fourteen, just before the mid term elections.
Tom cotton was by far and away the most vocal off the Senate candidates in that year. On the question of a better again, he was accused of xenophobia. I think I'm writing. Tom cotton went to Harvard. He is he's not a stupid man, and yet because the potential consequences of what he was saying is that we might think ill of the chinese government and perhaps of chinese standards, then it gets shut down quickly and deemed betray, but that is of course, no way to run a country. Gmo friend of mine was was tell me. He is on a call with Francis Collins, the head of there I ate with with much kind of mainstream journalistic types, and and this came up a couple weeks ago. Yes,
what's source the virus and mightier than up from a lab and Francis Collins is like. I don T count that at all you know, I've been to chinese labs and that they could have upheld accident and let the somewhat something that that's a real possibility for their she's like dead silence on the phone, because it s so blue everyone's mind that this respected scientist would even entertain the story yeah and about two things worth noting, out Frances Collins, what I've never had a chance to meet or anything but a yoke. Everything I've heard about him indicates that he is the right man at the right place. He's been at the head of the: U S, centres for the dutch nationals to the house for a long time in two thousand fifteen afterward alluded to that be, CDC had accidentally exposed folks live anthrax. Thankfully, though it was good got all that sick, the FDA it, that smallpox back in the closet, the Euro, they
a series of events at U S, labs that were kind of embarrassing, and among them is, but shortly after that they instituted new roles that involved they affect. They ask everyone who is kicking federally funded research too, pause research on certain experiments on certain types of research on these kinds of viruses. Sorry, murders influenza and is a type of of research where you take a virus, and you actually make it more violent and more dangerous and more contagious and some people might be like. Oh my god, why would never do that? Well, here's the thing! If you want to develop treatments and you develop cures, if you want to figure out how to fight really Andrews viruses, you need really dangerous virus. So there's no reason to think that the people who are doing this experiment were being slightly with life twirling their moustaches blah graded. My super bug to destroy the world less than actual you have. As you know, this is a little bit dangerous. This is something we want to make sure
everybody is on the same page about the proper safety procedures and how to handle the stuff and how to dispose of this stuff and all himself, and that's that we are positive, that everybody is not collecting federal funds. We still wants you to to pause. This research were really not convinced that this is. This is safe to go forward. They did allow couple projects to keep that already started to keep going, one of them the University of North Carolina that was working at the moment biology to the world was doing research on coronavirus. Viruses in bats and oh by the way, one of the two, the doctors they were working with we're affiliated He will haunt Institute of Virology again. This is not meaning received North Carolina, is the root of all of this, or anything like that. It's also with wine from a lab, does not mean bioengineering it does not mean that some sort of mad scientist is in there and meddling with the dna of this virus. This entire time, I believe that this year they have not seen anything to make me think this,
it's been genetically engineered or altered. This is probably somewhere out there. There is a bat that has an exact for sorrow seo veto we just haven't, found it yet now that that could be in some cape somewhere that bad could be dead somewhere. That that could have been one of the two labs in the city somewhere, but for people when they say their corn of arson best without very similar strains, but not one that precisely matches up with the one that we have this is naturally occurring virus, but that does mean it didn't come from any one of these several hundred bats, that they were using for research in the Hon Institute of Iraqi or the wheel, HANS Enterprise centres for disease control. So I don't know- but I find that your reassuring, I think, that's you know Collins just having an open mind about where this possibly came from his lily. He was at the head of an age when they institute the pause and he's at the head of an age when they ensure the new and said: okay, the pauses lifted back in twenty seventy, so he too
understands the dangers of the sort of thing be accidently released. If about it, you just put the stuff just piles up, and you Look at that. You say you know what there is a good chance. This came from lab, probably never gonna know, but that's, I think, the right way of thinking of this. I did this is open huge can of worms are despicable short. I wonder how many people find that option so horrified and if the sort of thing that makes our interaction with China so irreparably damaged, that they tell them that they don't want to think about that possibility too much, because it would mean this asked you go back to Nixon going to China, the? U S, relationship with China will be forever changed. The irony here, courses that, if the rumour whether this had emerged from A cooperatively own, ology lab in nor any man own buyer donor to the trump pan with contracts to Boeing. Then what we did,
it would be absolutely no. I'm sure you think people would by this without from a wretched rabbi gestures, while he supposed that China's it that's a great point. So let's go to the extra question to you: first Jim Garrity, your gut, now percentage odds that this fire form for from a lab in one zero, it's crazy conspiracy, theory Despite all this, a hundred, you think, it's absolutely true, say sixty six or so, but thing- is right miles. What went I think under the clever enough checkup yeah have you I don't know the answer, but my instinct is this looks as if it's what happened, Yeah you say sixty forty, I think that more likely than not, but among next
Having studied it closely, my mind is subject to change Jim after you read the first big peace than those people say now. You know that the announced shows that came through a penguin. And saw Penguin says I ok forget it. You know the lab thing was was air is a dead end, but I'm back about sixty four but we will never know and China Course does not want us to know One way or the other so, it's pause here. First buster, this group, the bonds and group, the crown of our strategy- has ravaged much of american life last two months, the impact of both the disease itself, the various policy responses has been profound in nearly every cattle.
Ray of society if you're looking for a daily hard hitting resource for ongoing health data policy, discussion in economic analysis covered and markets dot com is the place for you. A simple resource brought to you by the bonds and group the daily, updated, covert and market dot com offer an objective, useful and relevant. Take on all aspects of the crown of ours threat the policy framework around it and is complex impact across financial markets and the economy at large for truly provocative insights from Wall Street insiders, beltway officials, more the covert and markets dot campsites place to go for investor updates health data. In our perspective, that can help make sense of this crazy period of time were all living through covered in markets, dot, com daily and sites from the boy
some group I've been privy to these updates and they are truly invaluable, not just the economic insides but insights about course, of the disease and data presented and grass and tables there. You dont readily see elsewhere. I've just founded We have also suggested everyone go check it out at covert and markets, dot, com covered and markets, dot com. So Charlie, we began to see some indications of lockdown backlash. We had protest in Michigan were a governor Whitman Adam Posey's truly ridiculous rules, including about what you could buy it at home depot you go to home depot and buy some stuff. You know you can buy drywall or whatever it's just can buy paint for whatever reason. So I think there's a justified push back there you seen it a little in Virginia
then one other place that escapes me and down, up now, just as we were beginning to record this at the has treated out, all caps liberate Michigan liberate Virginia. What do you make of it today He says he has absolute power and I was going to liberate Virginia and everything is Abraham, Lincoln. The. Let Michigan stories are not one eye
in my magazine. Peace in this issue that one of the advantages of the federal system in this time is that the country being a patchwork quilt of different cultures, different outlook, stiffened geography, different density, local officials- are able to make the calls that they perceived to be in the best interests of the communities without having to outsource those to be who live a long long way away. That's that's the obvious, that's the obvious case, but their related case is that you hear unpleasant news in an accent. The familiar to you. It is. One thing to be told from three
miles away stay inside it's another thing to be told it by someone you elected much more directly, perhaps by your county by your town, by your pastor. People well, put up with more if the tone and the language is familiar to them, and if it comes from a closer source The limit to the argument is the governor of Michigan, whose behave inexplicably. I E. I cannot work out her thinking, and she must be aware that this is a tough. So she must be aware what she is asking of people tone and her decisions have been off and I was
thinking this morning. It's odd. I get emails now from companies that I had a brief interval. Within two thousand thirteen, maybe I took some taxi service in Sandro. They send me miles in the morning say, dear Charles. I really hope you, ok and your family is ok and we we just one you know what we're doing hair at the LOS Angeles Yellow taxi service. Here I've thought about this, this company for seven years. They get the tone right And the governor of Michigan, who must- the stand the state she represents. The people she represents is banning people from buying pink to seeds,
Wearing shoes or whatever it is that that she's doing, but that in itself does make another case for federalism, because that is a mistake that has been localised is no single point: a failure that no single electrical outlet other governors, I hope, will look at what she has done and say now: that's not how we're gonna go about this precedent trump, insofar as he has any power will hopefully look at that an answer now, but it is it's beyond me: it's up there with with the press, knowing what Trump is like trying to drive a wedge between him,
and Anthony found she s a as a baffling baffling decision when you are asking people to take extraordinary measures and in many cases lose their livelihoods and all their livelihoods yield. You have to be smart, now get yeah. I've got a point out here. A bunch of enforced to watch live television recently, civic every other commercial begins. In this time of great uncertainty, we want you to know that we at Amalgamated Chemical, are here for you, because we're all gonna get through this together after After the five million commercial Udall attired of everybody saying we're all in this together and that this is a time of uncertainty about abuse, deaf to say it. There s amazed by I am. I have been able to watch much much tv and
it. Just the other other night had it on and they had. This add forward touch free car delivery, which has just just that we're market can respond to a crisis, so you don't have to go anywhere. Don't you have to touch this car he's gonna come to you and be in gently dropped out, in your driveway, is amazing, and then America or something up today and an email newsletter. I think my gallons were actually us. It was my gown from access just pointing out that people think this. This is this is something pervert economies, never gonna, go back people aren't gonna, go to show rooms anymore; they just going to order the cars online and have them delivered to them that you, I m sorry, but you know at some point. In the last fifteen years somebody was pitching some investors, its Amazon, but for automobiles and now now you just yo log on line you order, your car gets liberty. My favorite example of this is farmers insurance, which
I've seen J K, summits of Euro. We widow they are ducas, we ve seen a thing or two, and are usually goofy accidents involving animals for stuff, and they now have an added which it says, sooner or later will be able to go back to those accidents about animals that made us laugh, but we know for now they got J K summits, I assume from his house too. Cord new audio to be or serious tone for their ones and other reducing rates for people at all, regarding the other, you know crazy, runaway governors in this country, worth noting missionary between Governor Gretchen, Wittmus Executive order if you want to ban the sale of see that what was it stores that are more than fifty thousand feet square feet meeting your your big box store strike your walmart you're. I guess spy might get up that size. It eddie those stores are just huge. They have to go oh dear of your home depots. They have to close areas, the store that sell club, one carpenter, flooring, furniture
and centres or plant nurseries or paint. Now? This is the moment you just wish. Somebody had been around the governor say governor you do know it's not the seeds that caused the corona virus right. It's not the paint. It's not the the carpet. Stop flooring its proximity to others right, that's what this is So if you want a limit people going into stores baby you're asking people social distance sales stay six feet apart. You going to want to see the yesterday pick up a prescription than others ice. Big plastic things at the other the register, killing a bank teller, type situations slide the money underneath your most Retail establishments are trying to figure out. Ok how we continue the US going seen as yet says like about our thanks. Go there's a plastic separation. Yup tat bullet proof or anything. My local liquor store. We appears so many years what it is that you're. Not
less red risk shopping at a grocery store or a sea. Her walgreens or or or pharmacy or something like that. Then you are at a book store or some other place right. It's not the objects in the store that make your potentially sick. It's how close your other people, I guess, if, like somebody's, you know, handling a book and then they put it back on the shelf and somebody else picks up. Maybe there's some nature there. But by and large its interaction with other customers now so this idea that certain products are like Fourthly, it is only by seeds of particularly hands he set out, It's coming to people who say well we're pulling out nighttime, quarantines you'll know the virus spreads at night times. It has a date. I write that motorists. So they did. I was Hoboken that said, they were going to cause, want people to hang out in parking groups in parking lot, look at me in stores and take up restaurant. Ok, fine! You do that fight, but you recognize its. The interaction of
well, that you need to limit and, as we tumblr ok, how can we, under these locked out, if it's safe, restore to have less than ten people in it, then it's it'll at have you ever of Roma restaurant or CBS or some other than any other store, can have less than ten people and without it without a particular risk. It's not the objects righted seeds. How close you oughta be, and how much we interacting with by the way there is able to discuss this in the corner earlier this week, there's a study, at a China does not be reviewed, so I wanna make up, you know, put those copyrights in place, they looked like foreign or cases of how people caught the corona virus and they can only diagnosed one as being from outdoors, so it is past, Well that your chances of catching the virus from somebody else when you're outdoors are pretty darn unlikely I support the park. Closing strikes me as particularly ridicule. There there's a nice little park in the tower where I am now and has cones and science close to Amelia. People do, as I run around this path, is that it's not like they touch each other, you
come on guys. What does this proximity? What does the government shut down during the Obama years but there are also it's kind of a pathetic part of our lives. Now a member of my household one went to the grocery store this morning and and when it comes back, it was like how was it you know, it's like what you give your Europe this like a major event. This is like the most interesting thing that happens to anyone. They go to a grocery store. Yeah that that's so true that search. I asked. If my wife goes, I ask how it was what it looked like: what people Have you told me two months ago out of us questions are I'd have assumed I lost my mind or something. So I asked a question on this one, Jim to you. There I'll, be folk hero like Red Sand, Tele issuing a clarion call. That the lock down to become a really big, a political deal,
here, some time soon, yes or no. No, only because I think that people will be understandable freak out about this virus for a long while and ITALY fee to close over remind people of the the kids on the beach and other phone lines outside Saint Patrick stay, lines outside bars and stuff, and I just wanna go one particular person who will who will do that. I do think The generally speaking, we got two more. We the debates and then I think starting in May people are gonna start saying to Hell with us and go out and start living their lives check up yes or no No in that we have already had it from various people who have been largely condemned. One of the reasons that Rick Sectaries rammed became
so famous. Was that enough? People in the middle of our politics said yeah yeah yeah. This has been an attempt to rewrite the tea party and its reservations, but I think it spoke to something reasonable awareness with this was still looking at at seventy percent in opinion polls who think that we have taken the right course so the the resistance that Jim is anticipating. I think he's right to anticipate will happen, but it will be in the minority in there won't be any particular leader who resonates I say. Yes, I think that there will be someone, he catches fire and it will be someone on tv or just been someone his crackdown on in one day When they try to enter a partial or whatever it is, but I think next couple we
here the those they'll be still some overreaching and terms accesses interminable of locked down when the sentiment gems is talking about the stir craziness in the eagerness to get out and out they'll be a clash there, a spark and such someone who will light what will become something of a populist prairie fire. So we move on just one make pitch for an hour lasts if Europe at National Yoda com regularly noticed warmly, stuff, is behind the meter pay or you can get to it if you're not signed up to and our plus you get three pieces of March, but it we'll cramped you're reading sooner rather than later this. These are not marginal peace is that are behind the meter pay, while some of our best most valuable content that you should be most, there to read so there's
and very easy, simple way to get around the meter table, which is to sign up for an hour plus, is not very expensive, and we have all sorts of deals running at any given time, gun website check it out and sign up. It won't cost you much. It will avoid a lot of annoyance and get it. Read everything and also get comment on articles and confirm that something you want to do is to be part of our private facebook group, that closer boat and you get invited to exclusive a cause with conserve news makers and when we're having in person, events again be part of meat ups or we just get together and drink with our editors and writers, so Jim related topic to the one or just on the lockdown accesses this ongoing argument about whether the shuttle was a huge over a reaction.
Or not since we're not gonna see it looks like a hundred thousand deaths, as was predicted from the White House podium a couple, ago? Are you seeing more more arguments that that this was just a sense of hysteria and panic where the cost, which obviously been enormous and economic and social terms, the costs warrant worth their health, Besides, I be very curious about how kind one could say all this is that bad or oh, this is over reaction. We are at last, I checked thirty three thousand dead in this country. And we ve been in the neighbourhood of two thousand dead a day, about a ninety nine eleven. Every thirty six hours or so yesterday there was a giant jump. What they think it was because of New York was tossing into its descent into its figures.
Everyone who, they had not been sure was dead of corona virus, but they suspect of being thrown a virus. And yes, you know these cancer are imperfect, We had a lot a road to go. We know that one person put it if we hit peak that means were about halfway. There. And with it, but where there is no guarantee that the down slope of the rate of death rate of infections, Three: a mirror image of the upslope of the rate of deaths of infections. Regarding that sixty some thousand lockers thing we are struggling with this decision. And the drawn that I've been beating this week and I feel like the vast majority of discussion around this is is not grasping this in an honest or fair way. We have to very bad options. Everybody whose hoping for some magical third better option is probably gonna, be waiting very very long time. Probably ever scene, which you know the same twelfth eighteen months
you have a lot of scientists and doctors all around the world working on it, and we can only hope that it comes along sooner, but it's probably not. We certainly can plan for it to be here before them. We need other state like this, in which the economic effects are absolutely terrible. And you're gonna see an increasing number of alcoholism, drug abuse, depression, suicides. We know that really bad economic downturns eventually have public health consequences. So that's why that's one path which stinks? I could use verse words, but I because this is a family by or we open up the society we open up society open up our workplaces. Hopefully we will gradually hopefully lead. We do it, based on what we seeing and based on data. I generally liked the broad outlines whereby the White House earlier this week, but Is an inevitable fact: if you open up workplaces, you're going to more cases and most of those people are gonna die, which means you're, gonna get more deaths. We know
this from the places that are open right now. We know it from Smithfield in all the port workers. We know it from Amazon in the warehouse workers. We know it from the grocery stores. This is either you pick your poison. There are people you gave it to continue the economic power, or you can open it up and you're gonna get go more public helping and now the question is just how much and you ve, seen a lot of discussion about what the death rate is going to be and what we had to get you to herd immunity. Well, the bottom threshold for heard immunity is about forty percent of the population. That's been lost, you can find it in society higher and is probably a ninety five percent. That's for measles! There's an interesting study came out from LOS Alamos Labs. That said, four of Roma What we know about the corona virus were probably gonna need something in the neighbourhood of eighty two percent. That's really high so the neighbourhood of two hundred ninety million Americans need to get this virus. It really bad
ok, so here these are you Lydia lots and lots of people now we're not the death rate. Us in a lot of people say well, because there are not many people have it all these numbers are nonsense. None of these numbers are not nonsense. These numbers are imprecise. There's a difference. What we now know, as I promised my calculations, I assumed one half of one percent deathray anything else being pretty darn optimistic cut people say we are allowing this. We thought it was one percent right now, if you look at ITALY, its thirteen percent Ah, but obviously you know, the people are being recorded as cases in ITALY are the highest apart. Argue now are the worst cases. So let's say it's. You know the tap per cent you're on the numbers. The floor is six hundred sixty thousand american to our dead. Before we hit it, that's what three percent threshold, if its close to the ninety five percent, you get something in the neighbourhood of one point: six: five: six million. We are looking at the death toll, probably in the terms of now here's the improvements. Treatments might help the rhetoric with them
resignation, but everyone, I'm not the hydrochloric lurking. The other one is showing the good sides having people just lie in their stomachs, and some hospitals are showing some really good signs, maybe the treatment groups, and maybe the death toll is in his bed, but all in all, getting too community is going to end up with a lot of people dying. We are by no means out of them out of the woods on this and so I'm not saying keep, gives economy class? I recognise we cannot continue like this. I'm saying we're going open up the economy and it's gonna have a consequence that consequences, really bad and arise when everybody in America, knowing it so please we go into this. Everyone uses all the proper precautions. They were the masks they probably limit how much they go out there. It is no fun to be the person giving people bad news, but I think a lot of people just don't want to hear this and, as a result, they're gonna try to make decisions just assuming that these bad scenarios just can happen. I was, as we discussed couple its gas sceptical that hundreds, thousands numbers as away
enabling us were hard to see how we we'd get there, but we're gonna be, and forgive me for talk about this kind of cold blooded terms, Rogan be at forty thousand in by the end of the the weekend, probably, and that Washington state model that are ones talked about that the lace was sixty eight, I think they're about it downgrade further. I can see us getting sixty really easily and getting getting over sixty lotta people, folks on at sixty number, because that was the number for the flew a couple years ago and and tried it. This just seems to me of fallacious a comparison cause your comparing what disease has has done and a country that's mostly entirely lockdown, compared to what happened with with the flu and a country that was completely open and were were also experiencing these covered das, on a much more compressed timeframe
then, the flu season, which last five months or so and then also out of flu seasons are much more miles. I think Twite, ten twenty eleven the estimate was twelve thousand people died. So it clear that this is this. This is worse. Then the flute doesn't mean there's not a balancing act as me, there's not as extreme downside. What we're doing now, but the the argument that we just could let it go. I like we do with with any seasonal flu, which course we don't entirely do right. We try to fax it back to make people, but we clearly would have had deaths multiples. Than what we have now so it does make a lot of sense to say we did all this just to save forty thousand lives or whatever it is because we haven't done this, we would have lost many more rollin. Also flew incidents is huge.
Down, because people are in the homes as fire. That talking point, I think, is a silly one. We ve also got a good number of diseases of that sort, so we can tell that what we're doing, had in fact I'm enough. If we were all literally confined to our homes by some sort of magic, there would be no car accidents either. The the facts on the ground, unfortunately, do tell us that this has been necessary. I then, as I said last time, think there's going to be a grand open wherever one, Russia's in icon, black, fried aid to the stores and starts going out to each again. I think, wherein Fer a complicated and diverse, citing different states in like article two different things: road ahead of us, but I've certainly been convened,
that much of this was necessary and I say that as somebody who hates this now, I know we all do I. I don't hate it more than most people, but what I mean by that is that I think there are two different sorts of people who were in politics. On the one hand, you have people who love politics, they love policy, they left debating the nitty gritty they like legislation in the legislative process. They are interested in horse races. They read a great deal about great events, and then there are the people who are any in a sort of defensive crouch and I'm in the latter camp. If you could say to me, I will be healthy and happy and free in rich. I would, as I said, before, go and live,
a shack in Wyoming with a creative whiskey in a shot, I wouldn't of says over politics. I don't want to live in interesting times. They don't want to live through wars or pandemics or depressions. My tolerance for sort of thing is fairly low. I like pink alive, I like the United States, especially because it allows people to live out their lives according to their conscience and to do all sorts of odd things the markets and wash it whatever religion. They want to Washington speak how they see fit. And what we have at the moment, is the crushing of that in this. This has crashed. All of that it is. It is a disaster and as such, it really does depress me it's the last thing I want
to say or talk about or think about, and so rhetorically and instinctively I'm very drawn to the comment that we ve overreacted, highly impatient to reopen I would probably love every minute of it if we did get one of the risks and Tele style rents rich that you're expecting. But I can't reconcile myself to that This, because the data seems to be clear and this this was not a flu season. This disease does not do this sort of damage that we expect or taken our strive every year and we can see from other countries what happens when you take a different role.
What happened in ITALY with seeing what happened in Sweden, and we know what will happen if we just throw open the doors and say right that set the virus, doesn't care whether we are bored or tired of this, it doesn't cow about our economy. Politicians should we should try and find the right balance and there is a balance to be had, but It's not gonna, be led by political considerations or time considerations and as such I found a lot of the frustrations that people have expressed superficially extremely appealing but unable to pass any more concerted rigour. Yet we check that this before there is also the public has a huge say:
in this and not just that it elected the officials who will make these impose the orders and will let them, but just because they shut down had effectively began before there any fish orders People were going out less because there are justifiably fearful of this, and if they decide that the orders are now on just fine counterproductive enough that they're gonna take down this cones are gonna, walk taxes cones and go go into that the Parson patronize. Whatever this establishes they they can find and other sad coyness. If governments has our wide open again and people don't think we have this under reasonable control. They're not gonna, go out again so Jim, with asked this question before or will do it again take gacek of everyone at this point in time about the course of this, iris and how're handling it. You are wrong, till after missed or relative pessimists,.
I guess compared everyone else, emerald pessimist, I think we're living with this virus, for a long while, I think nothing resembling radio like this, the other, these particular rules will be lifted, buys some point in May or they'll just below ignored by some point in May, but I dont think if you met normal life, I e what life like in January or early February. I dont think together this year. I think we feel like this I swift things. Things are strange until twenty twenty two, maybe twenty five, maybe maybe earlier, if good, good, optimistic scenario spring of next year. Six scenario not till after fall of next year into the year. Twenty, twenty two everybody relative optimist. Relative, asked mister rout pessimists by last summer. You asked me this. I said that I was feeling optimistic but seven hours later I listened to the podcast you did- was got not labour under completely.
In my mind and unfortunately that podcast is still very much with me I'm I'm at the moment a red pessimists, not only because I think this is going to be. Continuing for awhile and whatever reopening we manage is going to be limited in scope. But I'm nervous at the possibility that we will see a resurgence. Scott costly has argued at the end of the year and then will be faced with potentially doing this all over again.
Yeah that big Tastrophe, I'm I'm a more pessimistic relative optimist, but I guess I put myself still on the optimistic side of the ledger. This disease has been a death punch. I do think, though they're large parts of the country that can begin to cautiously open up. I think the the weather should provide some relief and by the fall, I'm not. I don't have great confidence we're going to have this awesome, you're testing and contact tracing system in place. That's a lot of people have written, really impressive reports about, but I do think there is some the chance will have their peace. That would take the edge off the virulence of this disease and that'll make a difference, but in terms of just returning back to normal, it's I'm with gems not happen for quite a long time is talking to colleagues about this either
just like. Why would anyone say in Midtown Manhattan has an office in Midtown Manhattan who doesn't need to go to work every day? Why would they go to work? When are they gonna returns to work in a? Maybe, if near just totally slanderous thing in their zero cases, yeah, but otherwise, why? So? I think you we're going to be dealing with them. An economy, this not back to two hundred percent fora for for a long long time. That's that's daunting prospect. So before I move on, let's hit a few other things, Charlie Cook, you eating alligators. I have been eating alligators and it feels that this is grey. Your ear, cooped up for about five weeks and that has just returned to nature and hunting alligators new Back guard I didn't have them because I'm not allowed to all that. They come close to the house that rules waived,
nearest that my wife and I like a great deal and they delivering at the moment and one of them they serve is alligator, and I have ordered it twice in the last week, partly because block alligator is extremely tasty, but also like catfish. Now now it's a halfway between staking chicken but partly because there are three allocated to get well. What that tastes like between state and chickens have to combat child sex. Bugger up the Sucker Africa, or maybe, when the Stolliver send some up to you, Phosphor twin he is in the front of the next viral outbreak was caused by people. Eating alligators friends on transparency is nothing, but now it's tasty, which is the main reason I ordered, but outside our house there, three alligators sit on the bank
and stared us sometimes inside quite enjoyed said a going up to the window looking out at them well while eating this elegant now just sank. Ace! Anyone doesn't know how this works. You can't kill alligators implored the protected species, but If they attack somebody or they get to place them, the state will come and the state will take them away, I mean oversee, they attack even kill them, but you can't do it out of sport or for food. And then the state sells the meat to the restaurant, so this should have a single because you cause, I hate them easy, because they fight and the territorial, so you're having this conversation, I fear, Charlie with someone else who also knew New alot about alligators and- and I already forget, says it crocodiles at a really fast and not gaiters, I hope, or the alligators really fast, no. I didn't I tell you what a judge
by the alligators live on the bank outside my house. I think it must be crocodiles, cause these alligators another and it s this, but they anywhere and lazy ass. So Jim. You then taken with NFL draft similes simulators so a lot of people have speculated Jim. You see, Have we really grim and dire assessment of how the country's gonna handle the corona virus isn't possible that side effect of reading for the jets. All these years, and I don't think that's the case, in fact when I need to on wind and not think about all of these dire scenarios and all these dire figures, nobody relic random, had they have drafts. The later. If you go online and we should be a fire and I fell mock draft simulator by the draft network, its draft network com- you can go there and you pick your tea and it runs through a simulation and you can go through and pick. You know, whichever preferred ranking of players, you prefer, and it goes
the teams that aren't you and then, if you're, so the New York Jets and you're picking the eleven spot. You have your choice, who gives you a list of all the players a b there there like Europe under that scenario, would be there. So you pick your offensive tackle that you like, and it goes through all the other teams, and it comes up to your turn in the second round, and you get there those and its get it's a great way to no one who is likely to be available with your tea Beck's get no bunch of college football players that you know I'm only a very casual college, football fan and I'm not. Every last in a corner back and in defence of our offensive Lyman now it s a way to play general by manager and, I think, probably what a likely side effects it gives you a much more informed opinion. When on draft Thursday night, you say all that's not all. I wanted to pick what were they thinking Jim? Is there a feature built in that? Tells you how long it takes them to disappoint you once they have joined the jets, isn't real and these are didn't break wick oftentimes than a year or two, but I wanna go that's
So that's I'm on winding and you come away. You can do this with a feeling of like ok. Now I feel pretty good with these, but I feel it can be proven. Happy with these books. Now you know, there's no way: you're kings, gotta pick those if, if the Seasons Council Jim the jets, might end up with a five hundred record, which we better than they ve done for alone time rain, but totally it's a zero zero zero record that we end up the same rank as everybody else, but what I do think it you know, I think, is very likely that if and when sports resume its not just, there won't be any fans and stands for baseball and if they restart the NBA season an initial season. Not sure we're gonna fans in the stands for football. Come this far maybe a year before military those who stand right now if the football season gets council to that's. When I will lose my sense of here with current ethics So what are you wearing, I think, is the Tom Brady Hamper base at a good move by Brady.
I shall give you an idea of it. This is where I usually would put in lots of jokes speaking for the newly patriots, because they can I'm sure doing Lufthansa deflated by the news but I think a more more accurate, I'm a little bit surprised and I kind of like if I would, if I Patriots fan I'd, be really angry the franchise. I think what a guy has given you more than any other quarterback has given his team. Over a longer period of time. Then you let him retire on his terms. You don't want to see him in a tap Ebay, buccaneers, Therefore, the objects like seeing name Rams Montana, with the chief I realise this is gonna, become a tradition of how the great NFL quarterback tend to end their careers, but I really feel give anybody'd earned sticking the guy, even if you declines Tom Brady turn that opportunity. I have spent for you
that argument. That Jim is the Eland Manning right. I mean there, he stated giant, but it got color ugly at the end. So I just I think Brady should have, I think, there's a purity to just having then a great and played with one team, and it wasn't an work out with the patriots. I just think you should have retired If I were Tom, Brady and I'd played for one team and done what I done, I would have retired to so the symmetry of it. So. I speaking of football speaking of great NFL quarterbacks, I reached peak gardener Menchu last night right before finally gave in the household pressure and shaved nine- dash. So- was caught us. It was like six weeks of work that I'll never I'll, never get back, etc.
It's not it's. Not that mustache was not worth sharing, was very impressed. But I will ask my exclusive a sign of a tree. In a neutral gentleman. I will cite send you. Might my pigments. You look from last night, the now now So what's that time, podcast for editors picks Jim Gary. What's your pic, I was, luck would have it rich. My pick is your offering on the homepage today This is not necessarily sucking up the boss, because if it was, I would do that every week. The title is the absurd casing. Basically, by these get my name right every week there again, yeah, you don't write Gregg case they get thicker Oda virus locked out, and I think it. One of these is a fascinating about this, as we have seen, the usual partisan lines,
it somewhat over how to hand listen what the right responses are, and you take to task former Education Secretary Radio Talk show how William Bennet set leaps in it. Also working talk, radio, as we like, these guys were used to agreeing with we will we don't hate these guys, we're through stupid. We don T You? U assassin! I concur. These guys just have gotten this assessment very wrong and there is a need to correct them and to think through the logic, and we want to discuss this earlier. The park. Yes, I have just very well done a nest corrected message, tough, but fair and hope These guys, don't you know, carried grudges and point out that, like this is what no public dirt we are journalism is supposed to be about sing out. I think you're wrong on that and here's why? Thanks Jim, yet what in, has been unusual or interesting. I should say about the reaction to the shutter, seen a return of tea party, a libertarian sentiment.
Among a lot of populist figures on the right, which is just suggestive of how long think some. This populism might be as soon as there is a liberal Democrat in office again passing really, ambitious and intrusive legislation because all took four percent. These folks with democratic governor to say what you could buy are not by at home depot. But surely cook. What's your pic, I like Michael Brendan Diabetes, peace, arguing that trumps talk, forces should switch members. It slightly tongue in cheek, but Michael, is making an interesting point. That term have you put the economists and business people in charge of the health projections than they? with factor in a considerable number more variables than we are currently getting, which will be important when
we're trying to reopen the economy rather than just shut shut down the economy, and if you put public health officials on the economic Committee than they can help those businesses work out how to reopen while staying say, It's possible, as I say it slightly tongue in cheek, but he makes a good point nevertheless, so my pig is an essay and the new print issue by Joseph Epstein decision. To anyone who is familiar with his work. But it's just incredible. Essay he's written for the two last issues.
Sure view and with without dean you pretty much just give a topic and a workout analysed this miraculously could an eloquent and perceptive peace shows up two issues ago. It was death, destruction completely right something on Daphne this incredibly amusing in and moving in deep piece on death. This issue, as MR shifting can you write something on grocery stores If we get this incredibly profound and perceptive peace, fun grocery store, so he's he's really one of the best essayist of art
time and that's it for us. You been listening to an Astro view, podcast in a rebroadcast retransmission account of this game without the express written permission of naturally magazine is strictly prohibited. This podcast has been produced by the incomparable tear city that makes it sound better than we deserve. Think Charlie. Thank you, Jim thanks for the Bahnsen group. Everyone please check out it: an markets, dot, com and thanks, especially to all of you for listening. We are the editors, stay safe haven,.
Transcript generated on 2020-05-18.