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you will receive a subscription to end as is quarterly journal academic questions, as well as experts, So the invitations to events around the country with speakers such as Heather, Mcdonald, Wilfred, Mc Clay and Mark Bower line to join just go to Anne S, DOT, org, slash and are to sign up to date that, any s, dot, Org slash and are is trapped closing the gap. How big a deal is the you ate deal and what does the attempted Ella police assassination pour? tat will discuss all this and more on this edition of the edges

Loretta joint is always by the Right honourable Charles W Cook and the siege of authenticity, woods, Jim Garrulity envy deal turn ceiling. You listen to an ash review, podcast sponsors, this episode, our donors, trust and masterworks more about them and due course, if you listen to podcast on natural view, dot com clean directly on the corner with lighted, have you but it'd be easier for you and better for us. You made as part of your feet at need the streaming services out there from Spotify to Itunes. And if you like what you hear here, please consider giving us a glowing five star view on Itunes. If you dont like what you hear here, please forget, I said, anything so Jim Garrulity, we ve had some new pulling. We ve had a fox that shows the race nationally Biden up five witches

cannot pull. Maybe he is maybe two point tightening. So for me you know: that's, that's you squint a little bit and that's that's within range of say. You know three or four points is with with and rain other side of the ledger that pull has Biden at fifty one. So it's a little different being in of four thousand eight hundred and forty three race is a little different than then having having bided at fifty one, and then you ve had some stay poles, some your site showing tighter races and some of the blue. Also it's some showing I popping by margins and some states targeted by Trump, including Minnesota, ABC News had appalled at her Buying up sixteen in Minnesota, it's hard to believe, but what you read out to say there is yeah, so that the first thing you look about wash because ABC poured a really, as I popping you'll, like wig whoa whoa. Sixteen points. This is a state, the Trump

one lost by two points: less time and probably represent. It is best chance living a blue state from last time to read this year at you, get that you're like ok. You know you also figure. We ve seen the riots in the violence in Minneapolis earlier this year. You figured, was a chance that the things were gonna go, ok for four grounds in Minnesota that he is the state was in play and you could see ok, crazy, wild outlier by the Washington Post ABC to Hizbollah. It's likely pole of voters touched a registered voters. Add he built ok. Well, you know, other poles of the past have shown a closer. He could still be in it. It could be fine, well, here's the thing will last for poles have beaten up by like eight or nine points. So you don't ever. The enemies are reasonably raw. Recent they're they're, all taken after the men, ATLAS riots thereafter. Can OSHA and all these other lands Stir. You know these other smaller cities and other states that have seen similar violence

There really isn't any indication that the phenomenon of rioting is doing much to help Trump, particularly the it of Minnesota, and so ok, you give a state. It was really close last time whereby is consistently up eight or nine. Ah, to quote the madman meme, not great Bob I'd also with you. The other things I think I think you're getting not nearly enough for recognition. I think good chance, Trump Wins, Ohio, right now. The real politics Biden is up by two point: four percentage points, a couple of them tromp ahead by a little bit. A couple of them have binding ahead by four points, but keep in mind years ago, down from one state of Ohio by eight points out that the world wasn't, that close, it was a very solid. We four tromp, so we had a very solid wind in the state last time and its look at work as MR that's kind of an almost into here, not assume state cunning that Upper Midwest area Iowa from one. This state by nine and a half points less time around. It was not a close races was actually a Wowzer. You know from really

I knew what it was in a flare. What that message really resonated state drop has been ahead in every state in a report which is a good sign. His this pole is leads a pretty low two points in the Monmouth Paul one point that a mind register Poland. I should know that that one was back in June that to avoid in earlier pulled it was in spring and the risks of politics average trumped up by one point: seven percent I think trumps go in. I wouldn't be worrying that much about that state of our the trunk campaign, but the fact that he went I'm a very solid margin for years ago to a very close margin here. Have you feel the culturally, economically there's, not a huge difference between island a high on one side and Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and then all of a sudden this they see this trend and all the son of all those three, the three vital states. I just mentioned all have Biden ahead by my to reasonable amounts, not not totally insurmountable, although again, like you, know me

they're starting up to four point range. Five point range six point: rage, beyond the margin of error beyond the range of like I know, there's a bunch of shy trump borders out there, they're gonna, be fine. Trunk could win all of those big three states up in the upper Midwest, but I wouldn't count on haven't you add that up in the other? Complicating factor here is that I like now. If you asked me about setting trumps Kaluza Rosa, I can guarantee it but you know, he's been trailing in a whole bunch of those poles in that state. You know so you take one of those it was in his pile from last time put in the blue here. Three and six electoral. What he's got a little bit of a margin, but you two out, say Arizona and you take out Wisconsin where he's down by three point. Six point: seven points in a six point: seven points and nuclear politics judge what are these down. If you aren't eighty five electoral boats that need to. Seventy rights has got fifteen comply with well. Michigan is fifteen electoral college for fifteen drug Outward North Carolina

electoral college, but above all this assumes you keep a second congressional district you lose a higher Ulitsa presents a Hillis Florida. You, the president's use, Pennsylvania. You lose the presidency he doesn't have a very big margin of error, and so I look at all this morning as they look. This is not where the Trump campaign would want to beat doesn't mean he's out of it, but it means that this is not looking great and whenever it is all the poles are always wrong. Look, I think, if poles are showing you decide that you won by a wide more have you only narrowly ahead and you're. Seeing the similar trend of a move about six seven points in a whole bunch of states or in the same direction, you should take up reserves, Sir oh sure they are starting to friend about this last night. You say he looked back at twice sixteen around this time

and you said he was shocked. Actually given how widely discounted trumps chances were. It was much closer and twenty. Sixteen then now you know like one or two point Hilary lead so to Biden is above fifty. Fifty Hilary was down in that the mid or about fortys and in twenty sixteen say, Sir, his his cases yeah, you know, maybe five point margin bodies is above de and he's further way, they wasn't twenty sixteen year, I don't think I've ever been so unsure. What's going to happen in an election as I am this year, I can construct a case against gems case there, That being the last uniting us important joy

The only thing that matters know what I mean I can see it both ways. I can sit and gnawed, along with everything that Jim the just say, On the other hand, I can see a different rates emerging, one in which. Bite and lead is fairly stable, but things have nevertheless got marginally better for Trump forget Minnesota for a moment. Biden lead in Florida has been diminished considerably to the point at which I would not be confident of Abiden victory in Florida. Given what poles have set in this state. On election day June presidential elections and non presidential elections in recent years.

And also given that a poll released yesterday showed that, while fighting is ahead by a couple of points, independent voters who refused to answer for which candidate to not braking four thousand two hundred and twelve trampoline In North Carolina burdens laid has been cut enormously to tissue fluctuating between half a point and one and a half points and a higher looks volatile. As Jim pointed out, Trump is winning Iowa And he is losing in Pennsylvania and Michigan by about four points at the moment The worrying states for him obviously are Wisconsin seems to be resolutely invite column and Arizona. But unless I am mister, remembering if you take us,

snapshot today and you take a snapshot from a month ago. It looks better for trump now than it did said three months ago, that, although it is by no means easy, chump has by far the easiest task of the possible tasks. They could be in front of him, and that is to win back enough support The vote is and enough white voters and enough older voters to Greek over the finish line. It is not case that Joe Biden is running away with hispanic voters. Masses we too in Florida in part, because there are so many Cubans, Venezuelans and Colombians and his promise to be the most progressive president in american history, which sounds to them like the countries they left.

But it is true across the country he's not doing as well with Hispanics, as you would expect, especially given that his opponent is Donald Trump he's not. As well among African Americans. That might sounds silly, given that he's winning almost ninety percent of African Americans, as Democrats tend to do, but not winning ninety five percent Ass Paraca vomited and from what I've enthusiasm among african american vertices down again, so I not long with gems argued, but I can also see another argument in which the traditional base of the Democratic Party is a little weaker than usual, in which Trump has started to do better in the states that he absolutely has to win, and in which, if the race does start to tighten in

Pennsylvania and in Michigan and in Wisconsin he could fairly credibly pull out a similar win to last time. So Jim have two hundred and window the website up. I know you don't need, it is so, let's go blue all states, Malta acted divided and that that's and the rest, the map stays. The same Biden went right: Wisconsin, Michigan Pennsylvania as hard, not circumstances see what what Trump would would slip to get get over that over the top and some other way. You're New Hampshire gets trumpeted

two six for the Nevada gets ended to seventy, but it is a really gonna lose us. Three blue all states in and take up the matter picture seems seems unlikely. The the advantage that tramples on the map is got it. You ve got to lose all of our free those you know if you just if you just loses two of them. He still love you still over there. He still over the top, but you did debacle, really need Florida? You know that their you can, in theory, manufacture, asked in areas where he gets there without without Florida, but that's just just really hard to see Yeah, I would give right now you know.

Put a gun to my head, I'd say: adding Trump wins Florida I think you'd, look, there's been a history of republicans outperforming their final. Calls not just trump in in twenty, sixteen others put up one by one percent affords a big state, one percent. Adds up to a lot of voters, but for us all closer I'll sparingly, no listeners, all the dramatic flesh, Baxter hang Chad's in two thousand and alive, but the Rhonda Santa's did much better than his final pulse. Rick Scott did better than some of his final poles in two years ago. So I think it is. If Florida looks like a tie going into election day, tromp- probably ones that that's kind of my attitude towards North Carolina as well. Ah and buckled if he loses either one of those that he's in deep. Do then he's got to make up a significant number of electoral votes? Fifty North Carolina twenty nine in Florida from somewhere else.

I said the the thing about you mentioned that if he keeps the binds gave me the big three Drink that assumes he keeps Rosa you'll lose our resolutions, like trumpet wind, say Wisconsin, and he would still end by you know, I do have it physically. Maybe I don't have it all in my head, but that was why didn't you say so, a wider with you know: that's you're, assuming New Hampshire goes right. Buckinghamshire was also closely couple thousand vote separating them less. That's not a one way. You can see it noble, argument that that could end up being in the trunk pile battle. Also not by a modest amount. You know not totally insurmountable, but not one were you'd, say: oh, that one was like it: slipping towards dropped. The second. They eat, you say, do if trouble is, is Wisconsin and Michigan and loses Arizona that holds Pennsylvania other than your two to six nine Two hundred nice yeah, then everything over everything else tat his life.

His red await them out and about Trump and then Trump winds and the house right. It's it's. The delegations vote, not not the individual members for his wit map Trump when's farther North Carolina, a higher and Michigan and Nevada. But he loses held on how far he went off with you in Florida, so he got the winds. Florida would so starting. Sixteen now behold Florida, your lawyer, now, he holds a higher in Michigan. He lives is yes. Johnson He loses Arizona, in Nevada. He went. Nevada here this is: where does the map and then he wins the district in Maine right. The outline they lose is Pennsylvania.

The omens by one to seventy one to two sixty seven, yet the last time rich, I in my office, I showed you my my wid map, and it was closer to get one is my word map for twenty twenty. So why, yes, is hardly have been growing while it Arizona Nevada, go so. I've got it a resume right that they they go the other and the blue, all states go together. I haven't thereby this isn't the prediction so much as I would have, but but The various Arizona has been trending bloom at my maybe permanently, or maybe it's a fad. I think that Kelly is going to win this.

When it said prudent and nevada- is in an old place, partly because been hit hard by covert, but that one of the consequent If that is that the ground game, the legendary ground game that the union's pull out every time the ground game that managed to save hurried, see in two thousand ten, while that Sharon Angle is, is apparently not running properly. Partly as a crowd of arson and partly because of a lack of engagement among people who have been hit pretty hard, given the nature of what they do so

I could see a scenario in which, because of the witness of this year, Nevada ghost read while I was going to go to split so so Jim you say: are you skeptical of tightening or do you think, there's there's been some tightening and if you do think, there's been some tightening has has trump done anything to help himself couple weeks are determined by everybody a moment ago, Charlie said heating. Kelly's gonna win the Senate race in. Arizona- and I will see how he saying Kelly as in Mark Kelly and my head on picturing Dolly, so I do not think that's a bolt protection. Actually, that's pretty darn likely I have been. There were some tightening up the republican convention. I think when you get me, no foreign heads of prime time to make the argument for Trump. Loaded with such aid when we discuss this part gas. This was eight with a good argument, which was all right. We know his person

it is in which it use. We know he says a lot of crazy things. We know you like this where feet, but look at what is policies have done. It was a good argument that we owe them really effective instead of having no evil on gory or some celebrity having ordinary Americans come out and say hey, this is how these policies have helped us. This is how its working for us is that good, that's a sort of stuff you should be putting it adds. Let the american people make the argument for tromp instead of his him, making the trunk the argument for himself, Is there more effective and outside the EU? Is about tightening up a couple of points? Not that you know the huge surge you'd like to see. I think in a poem ized era, you probably don't see nearly as much of an impact it could you see some tightening between now and election day shore, I dont think trumpets helping himself very much these days. I think that he too easily gets off onto these tangents or three extra, but every sees the media or your tweets a whole bunch. You know if I'm also

You can see how the White House wants to run a rose garden strategy. We're talking a couple minutes. I see them the Middle EAST peace deal. That's good, duffer, president, that when you have No israeli leaders and arab leaders meeting at the White House shaking hands signing it reacts, that's good stuff to having right before an election and then, of course, your trunk good. Having trouble so often do these rallies and saying to your step less that mass don't work because he saw waiter fiddling with it. That is waiter put his hand on the plate like now know that doesn't help add if Trump loses, a major factor will be that he did not was not able getting out of his own way and he could not let stronger argument for his policies be made because every day he found some new way to generate Sunday, controversy. So, Charlie. The one area where I dealt a loaded into this world peace over the weekend based largely interviews, weak Scott, but something that they have been

about and made clearly made progress on his cuban Americans and his ban exit, especially in Florida, and is Scots theories you just get it. Is he put it's kind of cliche you gotta show up in our Scott, went to just uh all the time and the hispanic community honoured hispanic businesses and the like massively engaged on Porter Rico, both relief operations here in Florida for four new people coming in and then actually going going a reporter Rico all the time, but, did the Trump group down their China's serve for tromp- I guess not just in Florida, but it's been prickly, active and trumpet has been down there. A lot down there, especially a lot of anti meant

RO events and just the rise of socialists actual no kidding socialism. The democratic parties sets off all sorts of alarm bells. Immigrant communities who fled socialism added. I didn't get a chance to check this out and actually included in an my my peace butter. It is a shame. After appeared on the spot. Get someone was telling me that the Spanish, the work progressive is basically it's the same as communist unites right. What all these communist regimes described themselves that so so, if you have an at Saint eurobonds, can give us progressive. President, ever in this case that everyone on on edge and that their there? The thing I think what we don't be with that guy here, that that's why I said that turbines promised to be the most progressive president. American history has set these groups allied reading a book over my vacation about

the british Parliament in the eighteenth century lcd- and there was a moment- were Charles James Fox, who is the great antagonist of William PET Meda. A mistake in the House of Commons and pits slapped his thigh and said aloud. I'll. Have him now? Hang him now and apparently this was the Action in Florida, especially in South Florida among leaning groups, when Biden started using the word progressive because ass, you say the word, is almost the same as tyrant dictate commoner as went down. There is boons protests in its judgment this venezuelan restaurant unannounced and the guy kicked around said that don't you dare come in here but I think it's worth saying that that is a part of it. If it is true that a spanish voters in Florence, do. You have a particular character, because so many of them are cuban and increasingly

Venezuela and and and colombian, but is also worth pointing out that binds problems with Hispanics in Florida applies to non Cubans to. He is losing Cuban Americans in Florida, but he's only winning non cuban Hispanics by ten to fifteen points, and that is the product of something else. That that is the product of partly Rick Scots willingness to show up. I have talked about this is some its other catch up. It's true. He his people met them off the planes in it. At the airport but it's also. The focus is actually fairly attractive to a lot of hispanic immigrants in in Florida, the focus on jobs, anti socialism. No anti dictatorship or Anti Madeira Anti Castro, but aunties

socialism per se and the focus on Social, savages and partly law, and order, partly on religious liberty and on abortion, and so you do have a character. Hair of spanish is. Is it is such a simplistic terms? is a very diverse group of people, but you do have a character among Florida, hispanic population that is a little different than in Say California, and- and I think when we talk about hispanic vote- is in America. We often forget that All right so question to you, Jim Geraghty, periodic exit question percentage chances that down Rob winds in November. Where are you now Jim Gary's about twenty five percent is at low

the new you ve been fire nor its trending down the goes about a third less time checkup, I think you're, Fifty, I think we're like fifty fifty year, you're still fifty fifty. So I'm gonna go move it up. I think I've been around forty, maybe even lower than that some some points of Africa. I gotta go up to forty five, maybe a little hearted to justify its objective. We given some of the data points it Jim Sites but Sir, that little bit of feeling but were feeling, does many think feelings are for often wrong, but I'm gonna go up to forty five so that lets pause here from one of our sponsors for this episode, donors for us, the principled and tax friendly way to simplify you're charitable, giving

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donor advised fund could benefit you're, giving go to donors, trusted dot, Org, slash editors for six reasons. To use a donor advised fond: that's donors, trust dot, org, slash editors, donors, trust daughter, slash editors, please. Check it out so Charlie. We had air historic signing at the White House. Yesterday we had this, sir, recording on a Wednesday this year I e Israel Normalization Deal was now copper. We go over the weekend. Bahrain sets coming in Bahrain can You wouldn't be able to do without sign off of Saudi Arabia, so that that's it that's big indication here. I rode big piece about this earlier this week, posted yester out on Wednesday right Tuesday, marathons it's Wednesday

Actually it's Wednesday, your new. We stay, I briefly at the top of producing breaking his it's Wednesday. So when I put this peace, a person is peace Tuesday, today anyway. So I started to summon the folks involved in this you and I have to say this is brilliantly conceived diplomacy on the floor. The Trump Administration is Canada's foreboding actually say that, but everyone mark the idea that your cushions. In addition, everything else is must be doing was get me in charge mentally speeds, some sure it at an hour. We we marked this. I am sure, if I didn't I didn't say, A right it myself in conversations with people like this is ridiculous, but he he he and others demonstration kind of figured out a clever approach here, where they, they came up with a real country. Peace deal that had a detail.

Old man that was considered of these reasonable by arab arab governments. Palestinians totally rejected it. It came up with this ring. The extensive well thought out highly generous economic plan for the Palestinians, five hundred and fifty billion dollars and aid, The Palestinians didn't show up at the conference devoted to touting explaining this plan. There and just justice Break, or especially the Gulf States like, why are we gonna, be beholden to palestinian rejection, ism forevermore and have them basically holding our foreign policy hostage keeper? ass from doing things that are in our interest, with the backdrop of how Israel and the Gulf states have been drawn together by mutual fear of an animosity towards IRAN,

and then they saw this opening and help make it happen. What what do you make of it? I have been fascinated as somebody who is no foreign policy expert by the extent to which partisan silliness has clouded and muted their reaction to this I am old enough to remember when this was it. Universally held goal, and it seems that, because President Trump, I wouldn't even say, broke it it because it seems to me largely found out but presided over it that,

Course of action has been to ignore it or to downplay it or to two Poohpooh it, and this is part of a general trend with Trump and foreign policy. Many of the people who are so Critical of trump in this area should be allied with him he's the first president, no, while not to start or preside over war. He's being criticized by many of his generals for being insufficiently bellicose. Wanting to withdraw American. True some draw down our international presence, The reaction has been either to ignore that or to market, or even to criticise Him for you now have voices that word dervish through the Bush administration and the Obama administration, saying, while of

if the general say we need to stay than we do Yesterday, I saw one journalists saying sarcastic I wasn't aware that there are any problems in the Middle EAST grid to find out really you weren't aware that there are problems in the Middle EAST that that was your perception of the world. Was it so? I am baffled. And I'm especially baffled because somebody who is not an expert in this area doesnt pretend to be and is therefore willing to defer, to read and to learn. I haven't read anyone say you know this is a terrible deal. This is all smoke and mirrors. Well, this is just trump lying again. It seems to me universally acknowledged that this is a good thing.

But this is real, but because Trump is the President, it it somehow different. I think I was on vacation. I wasn't following it too closely, but last week the Atlantic ran a piece. Against peace, said peace, it had its chance failed and we should now abolish the Nobel Peace Prize because President Trump has been nominated, for this is just a great example of cutting off your nose to spite your face. As far as I can see- and I am not going to do that- I'm going to rejoice, said Jim, yet that there's someone just reversing a field, because the during the entirety of the three half years has been already. They moved the the embassy to Jerusalem. That's it will never be. Peace

in the Middle EAST, the Middle EAST can explode. They pulled out of the the IRAN deal that this hour Eliza are never going to forgive us is true, most people and that criticism worth thinking european allies, rather than our allies in the region, but our allies in the region's pointed tat, and it was those important context for forgetting this done and now that that is how Then it's like, oh, that this was inevitable. You know you could see this the arising when, in the Obama administration Biden, you know in a statement. Kind of two took credit for I had someone coming nations, with the Israelis and the USA and. It's like I did this. It does inevitable net nothing to see her and must move on your rich. I am going to declare somewhat tongue in cheek. That the recent resumption or August creation of diplomatic relations between Israel and the Arab Emirates in their country of Bahrain, Rep

That's probably one of the most significant foreign policy accomplishments of the Obama administration, and I not me speak and say, Obama, when I meant Trump, because look if the Obama administration had not pursued the ran deal with the er in regime and sent all the money to IRAN and allowed IRAN to continue its. You can't see me making airports, but I'm making echoes peaceful route purse. Of nuclear energy. For the next fifteen years, the dirt you would not have had. The arab states say well well well, well, well, this is crazy talk here. We don't like the Israel so we ve been telling our populations that these really so the devil's for decades, but were much Israel is how to look for a long time, we're not supposed to say that even those how for a long time, the avenue as yet the Iranians are knocking on the door of getting a nuclear weapon were much more scared of them? Maybe we, eight. These really is the way we ve been saying. We do all these years. Maybe it's time for US to put aside all this frothing mouth rhetoric of we're gonna

straw the israeli state in order to drive the Jews into the sea, it all that stuff. Maybe they bunch of arab states it hit, you know what. Maybe the Israelis aren't that bad. We got all kinds of problems with them. We still don't like the way to treat the G8 the Palestinians, but me it's time for us to open up summed up open up some doors. Let's have some back channel meetings. Let's just see if there's ways we can cooperate them because they hate the Iranians almost as much as we do, maybe even more than we do, now, there's a whole giant new threat on the block that we need to worry about. So, in a very he handed way good job Obama administration. You did you set the stage for these deals, not on purpose. You ended up doing that so lucky the truck administration is taking a victory lap there. Legally entitled to take this victory lap. This is a significant deal, if As you know, Trump directly hints in their various gonna murmurs and rumours of if this is building up towards a dip were stretched. A creation of diplomatic relations

When Israel, real and Saudi Arabia, that will indeed be an earthquake, will be probably one of the most significant developments in the region in a long long time. Look. These are all states, and I think I don't think our colleague having Williamson had a good point. The corner, where, like look people who don't want to kill you but want to get rich, you can live with them. You can work with them. You can reach deals with them. People who won kill you, you cannot rigid. There is no compromise point, we say: what could you try to use? Only maim us or something so like the Middle EAST does not fixed by any stretch of the imagination, but these deals represent a really significant step in the right. Action and they trump Administration, is completely entitled to take this victory. Lap. So how do you think about its colours that this we're phenomena we talked about it before offline, maybe on the pot guesses Skynet disconnect were we have tried to do it every day is picking some needless fighter stepping honour or Raker Jesse

something a heinous, and then you have this apparatus of government. That is not its goes way too far says on affected by what the present it does. But There's this machinery the kind grinds on, despite that, the president or it yes certainly operates in a more normal fashion than you expect just watching that the president, you know what wasteland cable tv and the tweets all the time we think about that desk and action that make us think that think better of tromp, worse tromp, just where you on that were, I think two things. The first is that, although it is undoubtedly true that the general

patents of those within government has helped during this capricious presidency. That is not something that, as a general rule, conservative should be celebrating, I understand why pro chump voices say it it's better than the alternative, but we are the people who, for years, have complained that there is a disconnect. Tween, the man who runs the executive and the executive. We are the opponents of permanent bureaucracy. We are the critics of the blob. We dislike the fact in many contexts that, irrespective of the opinions or the efforts of

the chief executive, the people within the White House and within Washington more broadly wrong, and to hear this same people who have levelled that criticism, saying don't worry because he doesn't really round the government anyway, is its jarring says. The first thing I think with the second thing I think is that is. It is nevertheless entirely reasonable for voters to take that into account when evaluating the president for two reasons: one because it is a fact that there is this permanent bureaucracy and much of the government is run by those who want elected a fact.

Whether we like it or not, a fact that son likely to change in the short term and also because the opposition party wants to entrench that bureaucracy and that permanent government not to undo it, sir, if you are an individual vote, looking at this, Presidency, it is rational for you to say, look yeah he's a fool has no self control. He is not interested in the details of the job. He can't comment anything important to memory speak fluently and so on, but the results are not awful. It is not as if we have math king, who is hanging well in sending out edicts

But as a rule, it is not something to which we should aspire. I say as a country and in fact the conservative project over the long term should be to reverse trend, so Jim Gary I've Zella thence now, where the Trump One re election and on what happens after that? At this juncture, would you guess that over time it'll be. Part of trumps legacy, will be doing now and as it at the end of a modest foreign policy and as a peacemaker, yes or no. Yes, but isn't it come of age fearless enough in Cuba, which is that I think if Biden wins, I think, bought and will do everything, I think you'll see Susan Rice as either secretary of state or sector defence, or something like that. The restoration of the old Obama crowd and I think they'll do everything possible to put their Randal back into place and I think

that and also assume that you know that The ministers will not pull any muscles, maintaining good relations between Israel and these arab states. So I think you could see these sorts of things with her on the vine fairly significantly. If, but, if button wins the election in a member check it I don't know to what extent the achievements will remain, but I think in evaluating president trumps, foreign policy or, if you prefer, the foreign policy that has been conducted during president trumps time in the White House, it's absolutely reasonable to conclude that he broadly did what he said he would do and that he was in fact far more devilfish than the last republican president and arguably than the last democratic president, too.

Yeah, it's that there's this just total disconnect with just the way he behaved now combat as he is, and that the rhetoric, fire and fury rhetoric and the quarrelling with allies, like annual a cold Germany in picking fights- and I will just Trudeau and all that- and it just was generally been a really cautious approach to most things out with parliament on the precipice of really and cautious act

pulling out of NAFTA terminate after or potentially pulling out of of NATO. But what was actually happened. It has been fairly modest, even though the pulling back of troops, it hasn't been precipitous. It's been incremental, so if he wins reelection we another four years, but it at this juncture, I would say at some point: there will be revisionist historians who will note that this is a really important part of this presidency. Even though it's it's not noted, much hurt at all by the opposition

the centre left because they want hate him and tore are distracted by all the rhetorical combativeness. So with that, let's pause and hear from another verse sponsors for this episode. Masterworks did you know ninety percent of all developed government bonds yielding under one percent cash scouts, aren't any better you're lucky to scrape anything over one percent money, has to go somewhere and bonds other than providing a hedge dont provide much else. Preserving our wealth is as hard as its ever been. That's where master works comes if you're looking to diversify outside the market, then take a look at master works. They make it possible to invest and works of artists like banks, key hey. A W S and Warhol art is a one point: seven trillion ten dollars. Asset classes that outperform the Essen p by a hundred and eighty percent between two thousand and twenty thousand and eighteen according Citibank, with almost no correlation to the stock market. So, if you're already investing in your foreign k every two weeks

for an alternative ass, a class had the master works dot. I owe in use promo code editors to skip the twenty five thousand person wait list. Again: that's masterwork dot, IO promo code editors, see important information at master works dot. I owe slash D. I ask hey again, check it out, masterwork, dad, I owe so jam. We had over the weekend are horrific attack and LOS Angeles two officers were in their cruiser riding up paper work a guy. I walked up to that cruiser furtively. Pulled out a gun, shoots point blank through the passenger window, wounding of both officers they struggle out of the car or one of them, the female officer that shot in the jaw

She help save the life of the other officer by fashioning a turn again to stance at the bleeding. This is attacked very much reminiscent of the assassination in New York City in Brooklyn several years ago of two officers also a sitting in a car Are we don't know that this has been apprehended yet we don't know that the motive, maybe he's just it and not job, but its reminiscent of the New York City attack, were the shooter believe also make mended suicide person Instagram that he killed the officers and retribution for Eric, Garner and Michael Brown, and then you had live videos posted by people were released, one guy critically notable two and a half minute, video exulting in real time right after the shooting wow is going down, and

then at cop just got ere it out this. This guy, this joyful gleeful over this, and then you had the hideous spectacle of people. He was no large crowd, but people at the hospital where these officers were taken for emergency surgery to save their lives chanting that date, they should die a yelling at at the officers out that outside the hospital that they're gonna die one by one, a mocking them by yelling oil, which make of it. Evil exists, as is the two words summary of everything you went through their rich look. I've generally been supportive of criminal justice efforts. I recognise that in this world in this country, there are bad cops who who do not respect them? its of law, abiding citizens or even the criminals that are under arrest. That Having been said, you can't do,

anything more to undermine the causes of criminal justice reform or changing the way the police operate than to engage in Burma. You're like this, and this is one of the reasons where there's been this retroactive deification of the likes of column cabinet, Now you can point certain things: a column complex said that sound, reasonable or or sound like legitimate complaints about the state of? U S: law enforcement. You can also point two, his cops or pigs socks. You can point to his wearing of the t shirt of Fidel Castro. While denouncing american police. Hey, if you think american police are bad, take take a look at the cuban police. Moment. You said here that so there's all ill from we saw this year all kinds of of a broad based large groups of Americans marching in the streets after the George, killing to say this is wrong. This has to stop. We demand better. The problem is some of those

the vast majority. Those people I choose to believe are good people who wanted who were who were genuinely outrage and who want something better for this country there is a chance that crowd who just flat out he police, and maybe they hate police, because they ve got a better periods, or maybe the police, because their criminals, and because the police rested them because their angry that the police arrest them look. We as a country need to have cops when you don't have to You end up with things like that: seventeen year old kid arming itself and heading. The Canosa, wherever it was for the for the riots Vigilante ism is not going to get us to a better place in this country. Therefore we need cops. Are we need to have? Perhaps we can trust the single worst thing, you can do to undermine the cause of criminal justice reform is to gather around a hospital enchant. We hope they die at that point, you're not cause. You run you not defending any noble cause, you're not pushing for any needed social reform. You are frigate evil.

Because those cops were doing there were just do their jobs when there's there the patrol car. The same way, the example in Brooklyn back in two thousand fourteen every elected leader with its president, whether it's the mayor, whether it's the police commissioner, whether it's the senator or whether your social activist uber responsibility to use responsible language to make the distinctions between the good, The bad cops and did not run around saying cops or pigs and did not run in saying how cops die? Because, if you, if you, if you can't draw a distinction between a good cop, doing their job and dirt children,

Why are you complaining when somebody can't draw a distinction between rights and people were marching? George toy Protests- trust the act was grotesque, as was the reaction. I do not blame black lives matter for this, and I don't blame even those who use harsh rhetoric. I blame the people. Who did it words? do not pull triggers. We should judge people by their actions, not by thy words or by the behaviour of other people, and I dont, like this tendency, to pretend that certain words certain viewpoints, certain anger, makes violence inevitable.

That is an outstanding in the law under the first amendment, thanks to Brandenburg, Ohio and subsequent case law. And I think it should be cultural- and I thought the same way Sarah Palin was blamed. I thought I'm when Donald Trump was blamed- and I think the same here- these southern poverty, low centre was not responsible or to blame for the shooting at the family, research, council and black lives matter per se, Is not to blame for this, and my worry is that if we see him otherwise or even hint. Otherwise we will help in the censoring of conversation and in silencing of the centres

What I hate head, though, is the double standard. If this had been a right, winger obsessed with say Taxes, so abortion gun control. This would be it for whatever cause. He was obsessed with it would be it for whatever cause animated. Those who stood outside the hospital and cheered him on the idea that it would continue to dominate corporate messaging and sports, and not not conservative causes do in first place would be absolute Lee Insane, and I think what bothers me here is that the case

I just outlined, which I believe, earnestly and in a bipartisan and universal way, is not consistently applied the shooting, baseball, failed in Virginia has been wiped from our memory Was nearly the worst active political violence since at least the assassination and Martin Luther king before him, John F Kennedy and proper since the assassination of Abraham, Lincoln, we almost saw there? the wiping out of a quarter of the Senate, and it's gone. We never talk about it. We never think of it is never woven in to any can

temporary narratives. Why? Because the guy who perpetrated it was angry about republican opinions on health care and Bernie Sanders and if that person had been republican, wouldn't matter how angry he was, how crazy he was, what it was that it animated him. It would be the centipedes still of our outcome safe. So I think we need to be careful here not to say, as I have seen conservatives doing, while this is what happens when you march, when you protest, when criticized the police, when you even use unpleasant language, I don't think that's true. I don't think that's fair, but it would be nice if that principle were consistently observed.

So Jim Gary outside the Tribune responsibility for this shooting, do you think the worm has begun to turn on public opinion regarding black lives matter yesterday, Why should you yes, but it's very just the very beginning of the term, I think the still more turning to go jacket. I think it has for three reasons one this well put people off, not not so much the shooting itself, which is, of course ghastly but the the images of it being chaired two. It has become so attenuated the distance now between the the vague way in which this movement expresses itself and on what it was spread it out in the first place is enormous and three: it's just been overplayed. It is endless

together with corona virus. I think people want to talk about something else. Agree thirty year at eight beginning of that of the term being an Troy nails. The reasons for the turning with that lets pause could monitor listeners a little bit about the NASH View Institute William Buckley Junior Prize dinner, Gala at home on October fifth honouring James L, Buckley Virginia James, you invited put on your tuxedo our ball. Gown grab a glass of champagne and join us for a special virtual, experienced the programme on good opportunities to Act with your favorite and our writers and turn into a mix of live remarks and videos from our honour reason did or co chairs. We hope you'll join and arrive for this historic event celebrating bill, bucklers legacy

and our steamed arteries James out, Buckley and Virginia James I'll tickets sponsorships are fully tax deductible and go to support the astute educational and outreach programmes that advance our mission, we hope to see you online on October, fifth, for enterprise gala at home. Svp today at W W w dot and are institute dot, Org that W W w dot and are institute dot or please check it out. And hope to see all of you are virtually so Jim Garrulity. Let's hit a few other things before we go, you Then there are taken with pumpkin spice everything here in this pumpkins by season. Well, here's the thing if you live in certain parts of the country or if you,

shops operator, Jos. You recognize around this time of year that all the regular food disappears at suddenly pump. In spite of certain into everything last night, I had a couple of weeks. Pumpkin spice headaches, alongside of pockets, buys green beans, and now I exaggerate very slowly very, very slightly their cookies. The breakfast up, that's all terrific Duncan copying. I can do with them. But that was everything in my life is pumpkins by so last night. I need to not get some stuff, and I decided the day. The only counter proposal to damage drake just how overwhelmed we are getting with pockets, bites everything from greater jobs, They saw these cinnamon branches. These are branches that have been quoted in cinnamon oil and it has been used based the picture yourself be water boarded by liquid cinnamon, that's kind of the best way to take up and pet, give you that said the sensory effective, what it's like to have one of these in the room,

set them up. Ever since I walk in my lovely wifeless. What's that smell like buddy it's cinnamon and pumpkin spices and end wearing a gas mask, as I have as regards this pod cast, but nonetheless, the Gary household is extraordinarily sweet. Smelling. These days said Charlie, the debt of L season has begun and garden immense. You led the jaguars to stunning first game victory. Absolutely I didn't expect anything. The conventional wisdom this year the JAG you as a tanking for Trevor Travel Lawrence. I have never thought that made a great deal of sense because they already have a good quarterback. And besides, it's dark. Moreover, coaches last chance, so is he gonna tank his final season? But I had no

I hope, because the Jackson cleared out so many players. They look to be rebuilding and they probably are, but I have to say that first game against the court's division rival was magic. They looked great garden immense. You look great quarterback, they're running back James Robinson, an undue drafted a player was magnificent. The additions they made in the draft. All looked good said our young team, there, an exciting team and even if they do LISA. Well, if they play like that, they'll be fun to watch. I'm also been think about the NFL and and have family members friends who just just aren't watching cuz. They or so frustrated with the privatisation and an I'd, I'd sentiment, but I just can't I just can't not watcher are not listen. I'm a taxi tighten span.

Can't get a result we need to go into and that they have Derek Henry you the way, the way the backs go in there they never gonna run down. So you know maybe has another year or two of excellence that there's no way, I'm not gonna, watch or listen to these gangs featuring extraordinary athlete on this extraordinary run and here and on opening They were there the year a Monday night game, starting like ten o clock, they're they're out it Denver and somewhat disappointing performers for Derek Henry. Only. I think a hundred and thirteen yards caught on the ground. From Henry their Paletot the first time ever in a long time, were a league leader the year before and

running an hour's actually gain more than a hundred yards and that the first game also he's a notoriously slow starter. So I think it's his biggest gang was just thirteen yard. The rest of us can it grinding it out that, even though I can't stand the polarization drive me crazy, I'm there's no way. Sorry, I'm not! I'm not boy. So with that it's time for editors picks Jim Gary, with your picture, Did the NFL season start last Sunday, James for study I didn't get ill and training camp out. The major difference between Charlie myself is that his tea, You know winds and he feels a genuine sense of joint excitement. If I wasn't it that same situation if we can't even tank right

to talk about this Jim those a couple several years ago now and the jets both Jetson, the Titans, we're just woeful and they had. This game is one last games of the seas where they're playing each other and that the top drug traffickers. On the line in and if you want to lose this game at the Titans were losing, but by less than a touch down and on the last play the game for their own. Fifty. I think they started this crazy, lateral play that began to work both. Oh my gosh, no doubt score, don't score and, of course, the jets foiled. This you know about the five yard line or something and then said to suggest one and the titans. Thanks, lost again catering. Do that in a sign from the home. Today Michael Brennan authorities, there is no trump vaccine. I am Pro vaccine, I got my flew shot already. I think you know about the Avenant. I ain't. I Baxter

dive. Yeah she's talk your doktor, it's it's completely understandable. If you're worried about side effects are allergic reactions as such, but the by large Vaccines are good for people, the arguments frog. Against the early worries about a corona virus vaccine expressed by the likes of calmly Harris and all the more recent hammer, the democratic ten percent in Europe. They are particularly annoying because they had this vision of Trump coming up with some sort of snake oil all by himself and foisting it up. The american people, before the election, ah apparently just gonna pull the wool over the eyes of Pfizer WAR, Oxford or voucher in and everybody else said, and you know somehow trumps gotta do this all by himself. This then how vaccines get created. This isn't it. It's going to work and no in MID October, you're, not crazy, trumpet the accede only available and fine Gulf resorts and hotels everywhere. It is a redeem, less asinine way of thinking it is undermining public faith in vaccines. When we

then the most and Michael Breton Dirty stops all over this stupid argument. Bravo envy! d rather taken you see it playing out, Biden winds. You know we didn't get the vaccine in November. We get it late late near early next year. The these massive, gets the instant tat gets. We ve ordered yonder, fifty million of them there there they are distributed, and heard immunity if, if it's at a relatively low level is, is kicking in an and bind will be declared that the president who vanquished the virus, Uganda's amnesia and poor credit

was sailor once again the economy collapses in the final year of a republican presidency and has to be restored by a democratic, even though it was exactly the democratic Party that wanted stricter, shut down than the ones we got so be that as it may, what's your pic check, my pig is Victor Davis Hansen on California, suicide. I think, like Victor, who is Californian himself. I take no pleasure in this. I know there are some conservatives who loath California and want to see it burn. Quite literally, I don't. I love California, it's maybe my favorite state, but the description of why California,

in a state that it is in rings true to me, sadly, I think Victor does a good job of explaining it. Sir similar theme, I think, is the new cap story of the print issued by George caught in the urban EST on how blue government is failing all round the country, especially and California. He has goods. He is the data. You'll want to read this peace, so that set for us even listening to a national view. Podcast every broadcast retransmission account at this game without the express written permission and naturally magazine strictly, Pro hitherto this park acid and produced by the incomparable, Sir Sherry. He makes a sound better than we deserve. Thanks girl, you damn Jim.

So you ve gone from calling Lycosa calling in doing so. It is not the first time that hasn't o my lady Gregg Sorry is already there. Longleaf. Whatever day it is yeah I was looking. I now keep us from prior episodes that I have an update and and and look at it as I go, and I had Jim and Dan down here. So I was like it's not Dan that what that was last week, so I shifted off of Dan by step two and it came out dim sorry about that Jim. But you haven't called me Greg and I'll, never get I never going to. Let you forget that, so any any any mistake I makes entirely fide retribution, so thanks also to donors, trust and masterwork, something specially. To all of you for listening. We are the errors and see you