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so our sub text en masse towards more about them in due course, for some reason. You are not already following us honestly in service up there, you can in string service from Spotify two items. like what you hear your please consider giving us going faster view on Itunes. If you don't like what you hear here, please forget, I said anything so Amby Day, we had these long awaited oral arguments it seemed we ve been, oh by oral arguments before to go as as well as they possibly could for the anti row side cabin on potentially is a swing. Vote in this case seemed extremely the ball just saying the sprinkler should be neutral on this question. Retards restates the states can decide, John Roberts seemed on surprise

way to be a hunting for a solution. Short about overturning row in case c, as seems likely, he would be perfectly happy to get Dignan that opposed the Mississippi LAW and establishes the totally arbitrary line written by the springboard fifteen weeks run then at viability. But what do you make of it? Yeah I mean I mean it was. one was refreshing, as I think other people have said too in two the matters of political consequence. The United States debate debated at a high level of decorum intellectual rigour? That's that's what you heard. If you listen to this She heard a very challenging and oftentimes very technical debate. Right is kind of a debate focused as much on their morale

Eve abortion, although that was addressed both by MRS. These lawyers and by the Pro Roby Wait advocates am, but you heard lots of very detailed argument about whether there, the entered set by Rowan Casey to legalise of abortion. More coherent, retina with themselves writes a lot of a lot of the action was focused on whether the standards set, incase inaginary to that state could not. Legislate about abortion until the viability of the fetus was achieved. How that doesn't fit with this idea of women having

the right to abortion were right to choose right there, though the two things don't specifically relate right, all the things that are set to justify that were set by the protests advocates to justify abortion between fifteen weeks and twenty four weeks. Things like job loss or other things could happen after viability or after birth home. So it was. It was very interesting to hear it There is also no reassuring. I mean you know. It is very obvious that a lot of pro lifers listening in were encouraged by what they heard, because it sounded like at least five justices were very sceptical. This, and it seemed also as if I'm

no justice. Alito had gotten the pro choice advocates to stumble very seriously, meaning that they made no. They need no real attempt to justify the idea that the right to abortion is in the written constitution. Of course, they can't person, there's no possum, wave saying that, and so they went for two other arguments, one there's some kind of historical or traditional right to abortion, which Alito dismantled by basically saying ok, show me a case and they couldn't name a single case yeah Reed, oh by the way it is, can only guess, but I'd be surprised me didn't, read or meshes article from the end row issue. About how the pro choice history on on this is totally bogus. He's here

There are those arguments and then, on the other side, they promote the idea of well, you need An extraordinary reason to overturn previous decision of the Supreme Court is knowing whether this is a super duper extraordinary. No super caliph rationalistic precedent that can't be overturned, at an damn elite oak, push them into saying that you shouldn't have overturned Placebos Ferguson. If it had come up the next year, arrogance decided Basically, they were saying it's not They are basically admitting if a decision is obviously wrong. Obviously unconstitutional. Obviously erroneous you couldn't overturn it. Even if its placebos Ferguson you'd have to wait for new facts or circumstances.

That was an extraordinary argument and I'd be surprised If one or more of the opinions and issued doesn't take delight in dismantling it, yes, she's she's he's got cornered in saying it. Shouldn't should have been overturned too soon, policy versus Ferguson, but cheat she stepped back from that. But when I went back and looked at the transcript, I think a leader what was the real star. I mean that that guy is so sharp. He asked really difficult. Cutting questions are getting the crux of the matter and then than won't won't let the council of aid I thought he was really impressive and then it was very notable Mattie that Amy, We bear it. Basically, the council for the abortion clinic too it is very we're place where I m economy I will say you know at state level, you have a court sang

the line should be drawn at the second trimester, instead of viability, wouldn't would not be reasonable. Wouldn't that be o k and to an end. The council basically has no. No, it has two. It has to be viability because they I just don't want to admit that there is any instability here- one of course the court, a totally rewrote row on the floor. I and robbers who was very fact about on this point that I ability wasn't a big part of row was the part. The argument of rail black men is papers. It admitted that the viability lines is totally are Where are they just picked it out of a hat in case. He goes and and and makes a viability sacrosanct? For no reason you know with no constitutional warrant and then the the the pro abortion side once once did to stick for that for evermore

that they're they're afraid if they met it, can be changed and that their conceding the point that it could be moved. The other way to relegated to the second trimester could go back to fifteen weeks or six weeks or whatever. I think the stakes are so high in the way that the approach I save framed it here and it was interesting- this was probably the only common ground that the Mississippi Mississippi Saucer general under recommend on hard, which was the question of well. If we don't want overruled by the court, overruled case? Your role? Is there another standard proposed other than the viability centred and actually goes it

pretty much get the same answer on the Mississippi. Saucer general said that it would have to be an on do burden standard on tethered viability, but that there is clearly no constitutional basis for that invented regulation mechanism and a little asked. The same question to recommend said actually noted that in her briefs she had said that the only real options were to reaffirm room Casey as they are, or through overridden, entirely Andy and cheap. She admitted as much so the stakes really could not be higher. In this sense, the question of viability, is arbitrary, its uncomfortable grained for them, the at the entire basis, is, is sound and- and this became clear as well through guys so to my oars of various police-

cool musings and they really, where political year about Thea about their work. Women's right to choose and referencing is well yeah. Oh pay me actually eggs badly and an referencing as well. The various other progressive sacred cows, gay marriage conception, basically saying this is how we best is how we, in judicial activism, do things we find things that we like that are inherent in the construction sector and constitution. Your threatening everything here, the six are so high and then sort of gas placing the the pro life saved by by suggesting that this would cause the big political stance when, in fact, the upper lifesaver were very clear in their opening statement that that they want to avoid policy. They want the court to avoid politics and leave politics too.

State, and since the constitution does not say anything about, abortion is inappropriate for for it to get involved in this issue at all Yasser joy. I think that last point about so to my oars most telling a Supreme Court of Justice in the course these arguments, actually said. Well, the Supreme Court all the time has come up with stuff. That's not in the constitution, I mean that's where they have to go to try to defend these decisions and, of course, particularly notable that there is almost no attempt to ground the reporter constitution right to abortion in the constitution by the opponents of the myth, The city law Thomas repeatedly asked what was so. What is this interest? What is it is autonomy interest is at a privacy interest is liberty, interest and they all kind of always said. Well, all the

all right. They don't know it's not written there. They located vaguely in the fort. the amendment but a leader, was very effective on this going to go into the history. No one thought when the fourteenth amendment was ratified, that they are creating a sweeping right to abortion. In fact, most of the states had bans on warships. I was struck by the sort of my or moment as well. What an admission was she tried, of course, to include within her list, have made up decisions they decision in which the court supposedly took for itself the power of judicial review. I think that's wrong. I think that is implied by the supremacy clause within the constitution was anticipated in the federal,

papers, most notably by Alexander Hamilton, either way it's not a defence of row. I greatly enjoyed listening to the arguments, because I like argument, but I was also frustrated and that I think this is simple. I understand that the court has to operate as it does, because it sits decades centuries of precedent- and I understand that the Lawyers on both sides have to engage with all sorts of considerations that the court takes into account, but at root. This is elementary question than I am and on reconstructed funds, homicide rose wrong row is fake. Row is a constitutional. It was invented.

From whole cloth, it was a usurpation. it is a lie and the Supreme Court, the job of which is to uphold and interpret the constitution, should abhor and obviate lies role should be overturned, not because abortion is good or bad. I have strong views on this, but because it was wrong because it was not since because it is unsupportable and the court should not need an extraordinary reason in order to do that, and if the court, need extraordinary reasons to overturn lies there

Incentives are all wrong, because all you have to do is wait until you get a temporary majority, create out of whole cloth a right or ruling or interpretation, and then you get that anti democratically forever. I one point so to my or said essentially as a warning, while we start looking at this precedent, what about guns, but the argument for Heller is not that it was decided. The argument for, however, is that it was correct and, insofar as it is correct is legit hello, is incorrect. That should be overturned. This isn't a game, I got mine you got yours Even the argument against that position, though,. Is incoherent in that the what we would call left, leaning none

regional list justices and the council for the abortion clinic. Kept relying upon this fifty years of rose existence as a long tradition of existence as a say and animal house as some sort of argument for it. But in doing so they skipped over why, his fifty years, instead of eighteen, nineteen, the reason but Casey which to get rid of a lot of robot, nevertheless upheld its efforts. The reason that Casey came out. The way it did is because the court decided not to be seen to be political. That is the argument in the majority opinion in case. The argument that accidents clear so beautifully dismantled. Do you end up in a circular logic care where rogue it decided every

immediately knows that it's not since including scholar such John Hardy is pro choice but who wrote immediately afterwards within a few months. This had no basis whatsoever in the text of the history of structure, government, powerful essay. I air quality said: it's fantastic, so you get this decision and and then when it is revisited any eighty. Ninety nineties, the court says: well, we don't really want to put this Hornets nest thirty years later, the advocates of have the temerity to say well look. It would be political to overturn this decision because for fifty years it has been, it has been reinforced. No, it hasn't the last time it was looked at the court said why we wouldn't really wanted

do this? That's not reinforcing it. Casey does not say. The majesty of time has proven to us that this was correct text, Julie, historically practically to say nothing of the sort. It says we don't want to go there, and so, in a sense, the oral arguments really made the case for returning this. The states not just because there is no constitutional basis for the decision in the first place, which is enough to return it to the states, because when the topic turned away ass, he did so often from the law and into pragmatic, practical questions. It became so obvious to any honest observer But this is the sort of question that cannot be meaningfully resolved by a court. All of those circled reliance interests all of these moral incur.

areas. They are the sort of questions for legislation They are why we have legislators and a democratic pro zest, and so on the one side of the ledger you had people such as Clarence, Thomas Injustice, elites are talking about the law and original public meaning and on the other, you had people making a pragmatic case, and my hope is that next time this is debated in a way that it causes Americans a lesson in the court will be on one side. Having said, there is no constitutional basis for this, and all the debates about adoption and women's rights and health care and poverty and the point at which a life becomes protected by the political system will be where they belong, which is in the fifty state legislatures being argued on the floor. Anybody let last point on the substance of your arguments that will get into some of them. The fall out? The political reaction so

Obviously, a huge amount of the debate was over the question of why the viability standard is arbitrary or not, and what Rick Common said in her best to answer on this question? Was that It was a kind of a clear snakes standard that was objective, that didn't get into philosophical questions about the the the start of of life and had set a juncture where the unborn child. Can live on on his or her own, so kind of separable and has separable interests. Does that mean and he said to you Not really I mean I want to wait a bigger business myself, because I actually think this is. This was a very revealing moment

because, of course you you can't separate. Mothers and children so easily right. at any time. You know it could be the possibility that I'll you know One of my children could be in an accident and I he may never be separable from me after that, right, maybe to pick dependent for the rest of his life in I don't. I don't then have the right to sever. His head in order to try to sever my bonds with him. I thought it does not want to give the protests advocates there do in that. I thought they, to argue very aggressively for them existing precedents. while also doing a little bit of work to re, establish that there are twisted, wash

a more Ruth Bitter Ginsburg in basis for well in equality interests rather than in an autonomy or privacy But here I I I, I don't think it works as well. The viability standard works all that well one because its increase leads a moving target right. I mean viability. By what standard and with what assistance right now, the assistance available, the best Nick Queues in the United States, or is that what you're doing and if, if we can technologically progressed to the point where you know we could export tree

the concept is from the uterine lining, immediately after conception and put them in an artificial womb with with the viability standard of you know, the centrally swallowed the right to abortion. I don't. I don't think they would argue that that is so so I don't know- and it also doesnt relate to women's rights and a new away. So I don't, I don't think it works, but its. It is what the court has as far as its own history this is what they decided in case. He saw if, if there is going to hedging it'll be hedging toward the existing rules. So merry currents, the big exit question to you. First, will the court overturn row and Kay

yes or no, let's make a double barreled. If it does, overturn row in Casey? Will there be five or six votes anguish, yes and I'm gonna, to say by boats five votes for a fellow returning six votes for a functional over Turning to unhinged opinions from Saddam Iron prior a much what defensible opinion from Justice Kagan dissenting? so wrong case will be overturned, cried Emily, exactly with Charlie, Charlie, think trailer exactly right? I think it's gonna be overturned and it's it's five or six either,

drivers going over with the majority to try to craft it or the arrangement that Charlie and Envy D outlines guys, we're way animal em on optimism here. I hope hide out under us one? again, as I think I think damages and put it in need and a real live blog during or arguments miss, which was fantastic, but either way you didn't check it out. You should have will have more. Those lie blogs around big events, but It doesn't mean that they, the court's, going to overturn ROE and Casey, but this is how the arguments would have gone if it's going to happen, so everything's encouraging. At the moment, we yeah see without with pause before we get to the The thought in reaction to the argument in here from our response to this episode, so

text love the humanities, but not so much. A fan of listening to lectures then try the sub text, literature and film podcast at Sub text, podcast dot com ships out philosopher Wes. All one and pole Erin Allen explore lice big questions by way of an in depth, discussion of great work of fiction, film drama or poetry, in the direction of a liberal arts seminar. Subtext focuses on the insights into the human condition that makes these texts timeless inside. Second, change the way we view ourselves- and our lives. Recent episodes include conversations about the relationship between imagination and ambition and Shakespeare's Macbeth. how square honour and justice in the film, the godfather the connection between the political and spiritual and a short stories of Anton check off the power of art to preserve and Percy Shelley's poem, Ozzy, mindless and development

Psychology of magic in the wizard of OZ, Safie, love, close readings of great books and film go to sub tax, podcast dot com or search for subtext and passed out of your choice that sub text, podcast dot com spelled s. You B, T e acts, T Pakistan com or search for some text on the pod cast out of your choice so Charlie How far the argument obviously was, how do you do with president and how much the court should Hugh to president? haven't I had a really close analysis, extensive analysis of this question in a case last year, recalled rainbows, I believe, and we saw some of that, Sir thinking in the oral arguments and immediately had folks and oppressing. Oh, my gosh here is dead.

Asked ITALY bread cabin. I lied Lie to Susan Collins behind closed doors because he told her that precedent. Who is much Stan Course, that's not what he said, but that's what they're betraying inured is once he said, If we add the cord he's turning around and say You can actually overturn precedent if the circumstances are right. I find this whole area some up baffling in that. In most cases, it's the people who were vexed by the idea that role would be overturned the most hostile what president sometimes in the same sentence, if you watch their Amy Coney Baron hearings late last year, You saw this over and over again, Sheldon White House is particularly

On it, he will say your assurance, that this golden parity of president won't be touched, because president is so important. And then held demand that citizens, United and Helen all sorts be overturned with extreme prejudice. The attack meant to row in a sense, it is a fatal flaw in in the progressive Legal worldview and and renders that worldview, incoherent and, of course, they will not be at all pleased if rose overturn, but it would free up progressive living constitution less a little bit because it would remove that central paradox. and if you could just say ass, your figures such as

mousie her own Owen, Comma Harris want to. We need, found change in this country, and that includes a whole raft of Supreme Court President's be you'd, be better off they com because rose the one. They really like an the result may end up sounding incoherent and, on the other, have Cavanaugh, I heard cabin. I say the same thing: every Supreme Court nominees says. and has done since censorious bade against back, gave that famous and now precedent setting taciturn performance matters. Yes, this case, you have as mentioned, is a precedent and start decisive is important. Justice Kagan. said during her hearing that hell. I was president in two thousand and nine.

And then the following year, Mcdonald's, which was a counterpart case. It incorporated Heller via the Fourteenth amendment, She was on the dissenting side and expressed some doubt not just as to whether Heller should be incorporated, but as to where the hell is correct. In the first place, It did Sonia sort of my or this is what How many say they don't make promises and cabinet did not. They say. Yes, there is a precedent. Oh yes, it is a considerable precedent. Oh yes, that is there

on standing precedent, and then they say that they would not be wild. I think the only justice who, if asked about the President now might be less if you cities, Clarence Thomas, although even he before his judicial philosophy, was fully form back in ninety one. His hearing, Then he delivered a pioneer to start decisive site. I think this is a little silly. I dont think, but it is disingenuous justices of all stripes. To give that answer, I think it is actually good for the entail

the key of separation of powers, and I don't think that we should single out right cabin off having done it. Rather, I think we should judge Supreme Court. Justice is on whether their decisions compared with the constitution as it is written when they come up, and this, for whatever reason, has now come up again. And Justice Cabinet ass are the others is being asked to evaluate it on its merits and decide whether the controlling a pin ends in ruin. Casey were correct. There not an his job is to say that, yes, it is pretty compelling when he ran off this. This list of of honoured Supreme Court decisions that were reversing bad press, then, and that the test is establishing Re Moses.

Egregiously bad mistaken decision. Has it distorted. he has something in in real life, clearly applies here. And what's the reliance interest in and Mattie Reliance interest was another huge element The oral arguments and a huge element other of the ongoing argument and our politics about this. And I just want how strong that argument is, because you know women and their partners are, people will adjust accord If they're using abortion as a contraceptive backstop now, cuz they they know. You know pretty much any state in the country, abortion is legal, almost said, he time should note that the viability standards kind of bogus, because thanks to Rome

you seen associated jurisprudence there's loopholes. Second, that are used routinely. Fur lay term abortions, but people would, you think, would I just you know, and if you're living in a state likely to ban abortion when winter. If these court overturns Rollin, Casey, you're gonna know that an end is going to change Having us exactly right, it encourages a great responsibility, but people make the decision to engage in their behaviour that can result in pregnancy, but I also think so. They re most case you're, referring to a cabinet reasoning heap. He speak specifically about unduly upsetting reliance interests. So, and actually this is a point that little returns to later when he talks about the add the reliance of on placing so peace. He says that woman

but besides, had built up a whole society based on the idea of weight supremacy. So there is obviously a lot of reliance there, but the question was: was it a legitimate? The alliance- and there is also a lot of hyperbolic language that goes on when we talk about the reliance on We should, of course pregnancy is a serious thing and demand is very demanding for women, but Justice bar. It made the point just following the life so logic that there are safe haven laws. You you do have the option to forego parenthood. If, if you so wish, you can, you can put the child up for adoption, so the the Veal reliance issue is for people who are making money and abortion so plunge parenthood, On and in no way does this upsetting off of related issues, change that the first two parts of the standards cabinet outlines and remorse, which is the grievously org

justly wrong or that the prior decision causing significant jurisprudence or or real world consequences which, which clearly does so. I think that the emphasis on the lion said she and dress was inevitable. Given that for choice, rhetoric is very concerned. With the idea that women need of worship in order to be equal citizens right. I think our colleague Alexander scientists had a really great tweet where she said you know they talk about pregnancy as if it's an aggressive forms cancer. So if these people and that's back that's very common, but this are forced birth rhetoric. The idea that this this natural process of pregnancy is an act of violence, where is the act of violence of abortion, is in some way healthy and natural. It's it's a complete is complete sophistry, just progressing the trip so here, but I do think that was very striking them

how much was was concerned with this issue of lines which have acted to start. This is a great example of the paradox that I was talking about his work as it is just absolutely astonishing, listening to progressive talk about reliance interests and the importance of maintaining order in our culture in between trying to terrible thing else down with it. If you, if you look through the accounts that promote this reliance, interest argument, if you read the op ads from these People that supposition is, we can't possibly have a supreme court. The changes its mind on a given question because it might upset the social fabric. Also, we need to destroy this white supremacist, patriarchal colonists, settler culture and replace it with something complete,

he knew the two genders that we have relied upon for the last three hundred years need to be blown apart in favour of this endless array. We need to get rid of the Senate, expand the Supreme Court. Add music come on university. They introduce a living, it's a linen constitution, but they can't be any such thing is living precedent present around us ever shifting constitution must be an Amber Mayo back to manual on one of his day, no get in the NBA on this, so that some I forget Natty pointed out in the arguments that actually the status of women so dependent on the widespread availability of abortion in the fact of abortion. How is it that This ass, a woman hasn't been declining. At the same time, the abortion rate has the climbing and the number of of abortions has declining ethical peaked in and ninety ninety so dicks expect. If, if there's this organic between welfare women, an abortion that ever since then

It would have been steadily losing ground in our society when, of course has been the complete opposite I mean it's just is manifestly absurd that this line of argument and Acting M Erika Patchouli add a great peace than an army, You talking about how in fact normalizing abortion in some ways makes life were difficult for women, because it becomes an expectation of employers that if you do get pregnant, you take some time off. Well, there's something you could have done about this, so I think this obviously just not true and women have had do very well without version and will continue to develop their version, and I think something we were discussing the before we start recording was just the fact that its there

given out ceased outside focus by the media elite. But actually, I think about women are, if not privately pro life been sorted. Ambivalent on the issue table, as you mentioned earlier, vegetable adjust their behaviors. If abortion access is less than what it was before, if they find themselves to be pregnant, they will have other options, either reason details or giving that showed up for adoption. So it's just. It is not true that date they meet. As we saw my. I think. One point said that pregnancy will physically complicated, existing spigot physical rest make you per, but this is our absolute worst, and this is an imaginary of an absolute worst case scenario, western, no societal or cultural support for women at all, which is one not true, certainly not to enter

pro life organisations. They spend a lot of time trying to help women in crisis pregnancies, but is also have cynical. Is that were saying that the vessel? This is tat. This is a terrible thing that can befall you enough. That's never gonna change, you're, always gonna Worse off. If you have an unplanned pregnancy and seems like the height cynicism, so anybody you rode on what the posters Oh policy landscape on abortion might look like an analogy. I eyes did to Europe whereby the way, this was also point out in your arguments at last. The bar aware of most european nations, have stricter structures on abortion, then that the one it a society that were talking about here by your side, we're probably can end up with a patchwork, that'll be messy at will reflect the the event

various cross currents of opinion here that aren't necessarily logically coherent. But you know in a blue states, blue states, nothing's, gonna change and in red dates. You'll have significant restrictions on abortions, some states. You Eve basically had almost all the abortion clinics close through various new medical requirements in and the like anyway, society clear how much a real change in some some red states, so we may end up with a kind of a messy accommodation? That means this. This issue is less politically a contested and radioactive less of a factor next fall? Then some people might think you're. Well, it's a lot, but. We haven't seen the kind of way

action to the Texas LAW, which kind of stood in Texas and had this strange law or third parties, could two in the case, abortion and that stood for now, and I thought, as I think, a lot of politics. Junkies thought this. We know we'd almost a nuclear reaction politically and it hasn't and so far, it hasn't the oral arguments this week or the fact of the dogs case being at the spring court. Its end rising, think leftwing organizations to raise money, but rising programme for organizations to, and in fact you know, I've come to think about it. If rose,

returned out. You know, of course, there's going to be a kind of freak out in the media and you'll see lots of in our hands maids TED references and. in a lot of long essays about how you know that aid has been on this fifty your price. Jack to now like we ve lost or democracy were losing our rights etc. But I dont think much that will actually cut through with voters partly because in the wake of such a ruling next year, you will have the governors of New York, California, Massachusetts, Michigan and many other states coming out and saying hey. We have access to abortion in the state, so the initial impression that no sort of a news dim person would get- I'm hearing, Robbie Wade, was overturned and think away. Is abortion and evil in the country

immediately? That's going to be corrected in the bluest of blue parts of the country and then find out that note there. The restrictions in red states are limited, that you know very few, perhaps less than a handful red states are going to outlaw. but altogether were outline without you no exceptions for the health and life of the mother, various other fetal abnormality, exceptions, which you know don't satisfy those of us who were you'll logically committed to the person heard of the unborn child, but That's what we'll get, and I think the reaction will be more muted. People realise at a popular level because again situation on the ground

isn't going to dramatically change next year, and so you know there there's not going to be a reason to shake things upcoming. What you will have the thing that will change and the reason for the shock is that, in fact, the Supreme Court I've done something that I would the spirit of it every doing which is giving social conservatives of a deserved victory. You know it is in a sense what p, Be most angry about will be that you know the institution the government also work for were the intervention conservatives do apply for its protection. Yes, I'm looking at the table, I can vouch for the actually of this off the top of my head, but it it seems very credible instead of the highest abortion rates.

Nothing is going to be disturbed. Unfortunately, right I mean New Jersey. Thirty two percent of pregnancies are loaded. Will. In the same New York- thirty one percent washed in DC astonishing thirty, seven percent of pregnancies- Result man, Bush but Charlie, let's skill to you for the extra question. If the court overturns oh in case c in that Midterms next year, it will help Republicans heard Republicans not be much of a factor. I think it would hurt Republicans a little bit. I think, if the mid terms, ah by next November, looking ass, they now look, then it's not going to prevent Republicans and taking back the house and having a good year elsewhere, but I think it will energize some people. I do

respect and he wrote about this rich and so as Mega Mcconnell in the Washington Post today, that there is a profound enthusiasm gap between professional white women, especially but journalists and the elite class more more generally and most voters on this topic, and I also think that we should not underestimate what this will do, two per lifeboat is and that, if you look at the election in Virginia and which tearing the call was defeated, those who said in exit polls that they were motivated by the question of abortion broke more than two hundred and twenty one. Almost three thousand two hundred and fourteen young Kim and those people will still exist.

If people are primarily motivated by bullshit, they probably already have a political party, so I do think there will be a price to pay for it because it will be a change to the status quo and parties and movements do get punished for changes to the status quo. I dont think that it is going to completely append our politics or from any other reasons you just outlined in that it will be sent back to the states and the states are pretty good at absorbing pre existing political fishes recurrent. Well, I think most american or seconds are generally pro poor choice. I think that

imposing where, where you pull enable, but I think they're approach ice in it and are very moderate way, a sort of almost european way, which is that the bank there should be limit source, so faint, wait till later abortion and a hard core poor choice. I beseech rather distasteful and this rule is overturned. I died. see that we're gonna get rid of abortion perceive in the ways that think Michael described so in terms of this actually being an issue that affects most people's daily lives, not convinced that is going to do some big enough of a way to to heart the Republican. So I'm gonna see cautiously, that's not gonna hurt them. Immediate short term would mean yeah sure terms, next year's elections at May hurt in some of these,

suburban districts in New York, New Jersey were republicans of pick up opportunities, but. The damage of not not pushing forward is worse right. I mean I am the damage of Ino, of conservatives having spent. fifty years working for them. Often in pain at the end. You know that the east To stall fallen but the morale kick that would be long term is hard to calculate so so yeah the other mighty, like some little short term thing. But I again, I don't think it'll be a big deal, somewhere between Charlie Mattie. It won't hurt

some at the margins, but increasingly at the view that it will be a nothing burger, compare. to the assumptions of of some people about what I've and how transformative this will be in our politics and fairest furniture? I should admit that I began thinking along these lines after offline relation with you prior to one of last week's episodes. So you had occurred. Employers. Ami here try just please don't help heard from some one day: and at the bar. No, my colleagues, so that was here from our second sponsor this episode. Master works. Investors are spooked stocks feature as oil price Doesn't bond yields are falling thanks to the new code variants. Bread and globally. Now investor Turning to safe haven, assets, how're, there's one asset: investors you shouldn't overlook. This asset has stood the test of time and escaped the grasp of volatility

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check it out, so anybody another thing going on this week. Joe Biden came out with his winter Covin plan. Valverde yet more pushes to get people vaccinated and boosted and stricter testing requirements on travellers, but he steer clear of the canning for locked down. For now, what you make of it, what is it therefore having a hard time finding an off ramp from covered restriction. I think partly they fear that if they, just went ahead and began loosening things are pushing responsibility down to State Health department. And individuals that there would be a way winter surge is somewhat predictable, that they'd get blamed for

so maybe they're waiting until spring, but the travel restrictions don't make a lot of sense. To be honest, the army, Kron Variant seems to be already spreading in the United States. If what the south, African researchers say about on the crown, is truth or holds enough. It holds water after a few weeks of data coming in this might be the one you want to be spreading. This might be the in addition to the the more viral but less a deadly strain, but you would, you would expect to see as a corona virus becomes endemic in a way a holding pattern. I think people, I think people that believe in continued

non. Pharmaceutical interventions are king, for as they are looking for the winter surge in the North EAST of the United States to show definitively that vaccinations have uncoupled deaths from hospitalization. What you are seeing now definitively in the United Kingdom so will we will We will see. The only thing is those that, in general,. bindings announcements and pronouncements armies still give the impression that the United States is leaderless. And here she didn't even help himself by joking who's. The president is, it turns out she because he was talking about how often talks the doktor of algae, but a lot of Americans are not going to find out exactly funny. He does

seemed to be in command, at all, and in fact you know, I think, as this pandemic wines down, God help us soon we're going to look back can we realise that non pharmaceutical interventions had very little effect, except they did. Was they allowed governments to push down the failure to stop the respiratory pandemic onto the people right that this is an impossible thing to stop at a global level, this disease will spread If it has a certain by reality, they cannot be stopped, but with for Mr Gardiner interventions likes masking and distancing in quarantines. imposed and always as a government say well in a we told.

How to stop it and need just failed. So I expect, if there's any disappointments. This winter you're going to see a lot more attempts to scapegoat. There remain scarf laws on Maximum we're seeing that in Europe, where the european Leader Ursula underline just said that european countries should it adopter, get backs you didn't go to jail standard, I dont think we'll see that here because, unlike in Europe, we still have elected governments and down there that's where we're we're we're leaderless rudderless and in a holding pattern. Nanny though Clayton had a great piece in the homepage today, just making the point that there on the chrome variant just shows again that covers, isn't going away.

we will just have to adopt and get on with our lives. We can keep switching often on. They call me with lot Danes even more What's with education, is kind of like switching off and on the options by to your brain, it causes damage in the way you do. It causes more and more damage so, but I really think we just have to get on with what we ve already made great headway with the with the vaccine in the vaccine relate. I died there, the evidence about mosques in no respite still not still not entirely clear, and if we just look at Europe and the backlash sort of several protests and unrest that, when governments clamp down again just shows that certainly not sustainable, I think we'll just have to wait just keep counted everyone at this point. Otherwise could be never ending the trolley

anything. That Biden talked about the other day. That strikes you as prickly, unreasonable whole thing. He doesn't know what to do and he doesn't know what to do because there's not much. Can do this, isn't primarily a federal question. It's not primarily a policy question with the exception of vaccines and It is high time that we shifted this in our conception from a pandemic to an endemic and allow people to make their own choices and did not. Every time is a new variant, spike, hair or their rush to Washington to say what do you think

President Biden, what should we all do? What about you doctor fact? She will we be able to have Christmas when my son's basketball game be cancelled, we're repass at stage. I think we should be loosening restrictions. I thought it was an interesting reflection of how this is changed? Leaving CNN was running pieces from experts in it. Three insiders pleading with binding administration not to overreact, not to damage travel, even more than we have not to rush to another lockdown, more draconian federal policy eyes, they were passed.

This new wide eyed request of our leaders. What should we do, and I would just appear fit for calm and a reflection of how far we have common an acknowledgment of watching Anybody s question to you. How much has the continuous can continue in of the pandemic, hurt Joe Biden politically a lot some a little, not at all. Lot on the verge of destroying his presidency, I mean it's, you did you know this is massive. It is massively driving down democratic massively. Her turn the call of it almost caused the Democrats New Jersey,

As this was the issue connecting all the frustration that is popularly felt about inflation, about education policies about school closures, about the continuing inability to get back to normal, which is what Joe Biden promised he refuses to deliver right. Any NAM. what you need. What I think we ve seen in the UK is that you need a leader who steps up and says we're We are transitioning our end, You should have the confidence to go out and leave your lives. Take precautions as you see fit

as your individual circumstances dictate, and that's it. We're we're getting on with life all onto their when, in The next new cycle the media tries to pushing test you I met with it. You know a slight. Increase of cases here or in a little Eve over there in some other region of the country, the only way out of it, but this is clear your presidency, where the staff, is looking towards twitter, were signals about where to go, and then their frantically bothering Joe Biden Whoever is speaking on his behalf to them, for cruel to go in the direction the wind is blowing and its come through

and down he's at the mercy of events. Now he's not reading occurrence lot, some little, not at all. I think, a law if, if you consider how thereby displacing the pandemic affair policy in all sorts of other ways is Michael Lanes. I think that people are very frustrating it for the precise reason that, as they will says, this is not what they were promised. So I don't This is sustainable and is doing a lot of damage cossiga. We got a lot for two reasons. The first is that Biden promised back he's at I'm competent, I'm normal and I will return America to the place you knew before Donald Trump and before the pandemic it was always a ridiculous fantasy. More people have now died on violence watch them did under Trump

and he's paying the price for having raised those expectations. It's not his fault that curve it has continued, but he did promise to shut it down in his own words. Second reason is that he's hamstrung by backs the Washington Post peace, earlier in the week, the gist of which was when Cove it receives. People will realize Joe Biden has a good president quoted also save democratic insiders and advisers pulses and so forth. Sang the White House is aware the coverage dragging him down, but once it dissipates, then he'll be popular again, but the third paragraph featured a long time Democrat. to get Visor informer adviser to fight, and while he was vice president saying I'm never going back to normal, I'm going to our mask on a plan for the rest of my life, and I think it is highlighted the problem he has. He wants to get out of it

but all the people. He knows all the people, her in positions of influence and authority, are crazy, their widows and Those are the people to whom is listening and who is allowing to set policy and say, maybe here, the stance that cover the striking him down, but here chosen to affiliate himself with the people who are dragging him down and will continue to do so and I think, are not going to change their minds anytime soon. yes, I think I agree. It is heard a lot, and this really been a pencil movement because, on the one hand, if you had all the close, over the last year and a half, especially the schools that really have proven toxic for let the Democrats there was a modern outset, democratic out there that did folk focus groups in Virginia to try to figure out What went wrong and gubernatorial race and why the key take a ways was that election was away for a lot of people

to register their extreme discontent with with the restrictions and the the closures across the board. At the same time, a shy point, binds vastly over promised here keep it was during the election. You can actually convince anyone in the mainstream media this but binds, Anne was not different than trumps play out. Does not many fold meaningfully different because it it's not approve primarily susceptible to a federal solution what Biden was counting on not reasonably this unreasonably? This is what I thought would have happened with the vaccines, just as he is coming to office would crush that the pandemic. It didn't happen. We have had more deaths and twenty twenty one than twenty twenty plus is set so that false vices prom this plus its played into the economic disruptions that that I've heard a lot as well. So the answer clearly is

a lot, so, let's briefly get to one other. Do you hear and video got here first on this have this enormous hedge fund guy, of course I've never heard of him. I know how to say his name re daily. Oh, I guess it is. I just isn't an occasional vines, but I have to the world of business and finance. You know, but it goes in, and commentators loom large for me, so I was invited to one of these. They briefly became controversial. My palm pale, a nice dinner for she had at the the state torment various people and oh my gosh, you know I'm so on the bill is no one is here then Shapiro where's been Shapiro, worse crowd there, no one. I know their value, Sky Lloyd, whose Lloyd, I think that other guy courses Loi blank fine. You know that the Sea of Goldman Sachs and some other guys they are those that the sixth cfo Araby in B.

But anyway side. I've never heard of this guy. This as mean he's not a extremely big deal. I think it's the biggest hedge fund, any states, but this goes do theme. We ve had a lot less couple years of that, way that China is able to. manipulate people in the United States who do business in China, and this is just one of the starkist examples. Yes, huge investment from China billions and billions and billions he has asked on CNBC. Are you worried all about their system mean where they can disappear? Tiniest tennis, hours, and also this guy, who obviously must be very shrewd. You know he's Meda fourchan over the years. I am not an expert on any that, like you, need policy experts, expertise to know its hideous to disappear, a tennis star for the offence of alleging a sexual assault against her by a high ranking Chinese. official and then he went to the over. We got a lot of problems in this country too, and they to look you know this is the

I need a system. Is a chinese culture either? Something about that. Something too, that the government is a reflection of the chinese culture and, I would say in a sum, is deficiencies with like oh just like a strict father there, just like a strict father, justs dynamic turning well, I once interviewed tree dahlias hedge fund in real life in almost another. My and am yeah. I was gonna added their knees, letter and retailers, hedge fund, has never included that partial application to the upper middle class, and, the right policies and intervention. What's interesting, as is his hedge Fund Bridgewater, is actually run like a Chinese. Surveillance state- and I know this because,

as part of the interview process, I got to watch the surveillance, video every dahlia getting into a fight with an executive and offer my comments on how their fight progressed in the result of this executive, eventually resigned after this incredibly personal exchange, I mean every inch, action in his business is recorded by cameras and is available for replay and struggle sessions The kind of guy radar LEO is and how he's made a success of amongst themselves, but he's not alone. He doesn't just have this weird affinity for a kind of social credit system that already exists in his company. But Charles Manager, basically, criticized Jack MAR the chinese billion air. Besides, the Chinese Communist Party thing he was insolent and he was arrogant and the Chinese

as if he deserved to be disappeared for two or three months by the Chinese Communist Party. Yet. This is. This is a massive massive problem in ITALY, deeper than just a handful of executives. There are a lot like when you look at The way out leaders talk about Russia and the way they do about China Rachel. And which is in a in Russia all sorts of problems, but they are not in genocide against their muslim populations, which they have. The Chinese are doing that they are not they don't have slave labour camps they're not going honour a process five rendering women infertile who live in it when they want to see some internal population calendar, but Russia gets criticized freely

and robustly by any one in our political class. Why? Because we don't do much trade with Russia their subject. Incredible sanctions are economies not integrated with them by Our economy is deeply intertwined with China's, and so you have apologists for them all. Throughout our country, at the highest levels and in a radio is someone who can get a meeting with anyone in government, including the president, and being a man of influence. So this is a very serious problem. It is why we did not do trade with the Soviet Union. Serious level during the cold war has come. Countries use their economic power as tools of political oppression, in exactly the way intake, colonialist criticized the west of doing a communist This is a matter of explicit open policy. So yes,

can expect more and more rich and powerful people in United States to effectively be members of the Chinese Communist Party so and they entered a timely pushes straight to the exit. I Shan t you Mattie curves. There will be a backlash to this kind of you save your such that in years ahead become much higher. For highly worded the NBA and the likes of re dahlia to kowtow to China, yes or no, I think depressingly probably know lower absolute should I live in the sort of thing completely seconding and better unleashing the Amazon description of his book entitled principles, and it says that this bit contains the key elements of values. A conventional principles that helped out will become one of the world's most successful people. Well, if that means doing Morales. Yet when do then those are not start principles that I think should be celebrated in the? U S so by force

No, I don't. I don't think the backlash is sufficient, try cook now. I don't think so, because I think this is being driven by money and I think we're going to be even more intertwined with China in there for thou, be more money that is glued to that country and by the elite classes unwillingness or inability to acknowledge that the United States is an exceptional place and that it is objectively far morally superior.

to China that I think is getting worse to at least for now saw expect people in his position to get worse rather than better. On this now come on. Anybody tell me, there's gonna be a backlash, no sign to say. Yes, I think the choice point I think. Next couple years we're gonna become less intertwined. I think this is gonna become unsustainable, given what I expect to be China's naked aggression against time on and the continued focus on the human rights abuses so promising you immediate change, but I think over time will see a change with that. Let's hit a few other things where we go Mattie currents. or listeners, my fellow

Colleagues here have noticed that you're back what's going on here, You wanna have for you here. He has so first ball. Apologies for my rather abrupt irish exits where I live, suddenly without any warning. I was wrong with irish exits right because he knew I had some visa turbulence. I was waiting for my visit to be processed in because of Kuwait, or at least that's what I was told, because of course there were delays which caused issues anyway. It's a long, boring story, and the point is that I'm back and related to back and also I was very touched by the at the readers and listeners, enabled to ask if I had died or some other orbiting, the answer is no or they might get a yes well. We can't buy yes, the my estate, I suppose, if it has been a state, but no I'm I'm fine

an unjust civilized back, and so yes, but welcome back and they didn't like Zan. You ve been focused on Christmas, decorations, yeah. Of course I hope yet Inflatable Santa Claus in the front line. We don't give inflatable staff I've got into that provides. No, we did we. We got up her tree and pulled out a box of the ornaments, and we do that with the kids and it's a great, moment and have one of those moments of the year, that sort of becomes the of what I think family should be my eye, pick out the ornament start putting in monetary Haphazard Lee, but there also asking about them. In fact, as you know the good Third of them are ornaments a have from my mother, or that came from my father or from my my way I love then, and so you know the kid start.

Getting anxious to talk about our parents and grandparents and people are came before us. and I have the honour of putting these ornaments on the tree. Damn it made me for clubs It has one, as is its one, is going to holiday, etc. The much mega holiday special out of this, the right to peaceful golden months of the year, so search icon began to look a lot like Christmas down a floor to cheer. You have guys with machetes, cutting oranges and have in your yard this light. occurred during the recording of this broadcasts, we're having some trees removed, not trees, that require access to cut them down but floor, trees, that up thickened wound around other trees and foliage, and that requires

shatters, declare them, and I have some guys in my garden, my yard. I spoke with machetes. First thing: that's quite Florida, but the very already. A part of this is that we have in our industry in the garden and ass. They could have an hour in suicide shore knock yourself out, and instead of just taking me orange off the orange tree and appealing it and eating it, they the oranges to each other and then cut them in half in Meda. With the machetes perfectly like some sort of Annie, the key issue and then pick them off the ground. and ate them hall. And I guess that what that right down to the oranges is a real Florida moment. Awesome sir. I saw movie over the Thanksgiving break that I do not recommend called the power of dog. I made the mistake of,

cute about this movie from rotten tomatoes where it had a ninety five percent critic rating, which I forgot, A rating that high either means movies, really good, gooders terrible because so so many critics inscrutable art house movies, I spare a western. It is western of sorts, like you know, a ninety five percent rate of western look go wrong. Disastrously right, I don't think there's one gun discharge in this in entire movie. It ended up this kind of bizarre psychological twists, which go into in case. Someone shows somewhere bad judgment and is gonna go see this movie. I don't want to ruin it for anyone, Charlie, but you. Never never gonna be forgiven for two thousand and thirteen it was the ending, was so inscrutable areas. I will say this kind of interesting and I wanted to find out what I missed in what what accounted for

mystifying ending, and I had to go red various accounts. They explain why about anyway. I, outside the power dog is, is disappointing and steer clear if you had an inkling inclination to see it with that, it's time Editors picks Ambrady, which your pic sort with double pick its theme to pieces by Albert Coolby and Patrick Porter. I entirely latest issue debating whether or not the U S should defend Taiwan. I think both are Eldridge Collyer Cobby his book strategy. Denial is really great, really commencing a vision for republican foreign policy going forward, except perhaps on this one question of Taiwan, where I think Patrick Porter has a little bit of a stronger argument, but it's just debate.

at the highest level in an artist best tradition, macaroons. I like tat piece by cabin, it's ok to wonder by patents, mental state. I thought it was both sensible and humane, and I really wreck meant that people go check out. Troy cook. Have you bother to come over? There is back this up before this gives a glass for years to this one and so on. We cry myself to sleep over this public willing, my attitude, because that she biomedical Hence the newly returned mighty cancer has a piece called saving. I'm gonna Satan French, not a dumb

cathedral eyes. I say not you dumb for that, but Notre Dame now for football. I've been assimilated. Anyhow, this a great conservative case dramatic. This is why you don't want things to burn down. This is why you don't want things to be destroyed, because when try to resuscitate them is always someone who stands up and this maybe we should just completely differently, and this is going to happen in the case of martyrdom cathedral, which has anyone had ever been there will know, does not need to be done completely differently. There is nothing wrong with it. It is one off or was one of the great wonders of the world, and I think Mary makes a great case that to try to update it or alter it or make it more, democratic or inclusive would have a ghastly terms.

They use would be an act of cultural vandalism, so Maddie Jim Garrity style, Maddie's piece was going to be my honorable mention. I was also really taken with that peace, but I am going with Dominic Pinot and a piece he wrote yesterday that I found really helpful and informative someday. I was totally unaware of. It has been obviously a lot of focus on the port crisis and that the Biden folks in one say it's it's getting relieved and getting much better and the numbers have seemed to indicate as much but Dominic points out that actually they just come up with a new way of accounting in a new way of having ships weight off shore. The problem really hasn't gotten better at all So that's it for us even listening to a national view. Podcasting you re broadcast retransmission account game without express written permission.

Sure magazine is strictly prohibited. As part gas has been reduced by incomparable Sarah, should he who makes a sound better than we deserve. Thank you, Charlie. Thanks to the amazing returning Mattie thank mediate thanks, a sub Texan master works and thanks, especially to all of you for listing where the others will see an extra