« The Editors

Special Episode: The Pollster Who Thinks Trump Is Ahead [268]

2020-10-18 | 🔗

On this special Sunday edition of The Editors, Rich interviews Trafalgar Group CEO Robert Cahaly about polling and what it says about the upcoming election.

The Editors is hosted by Rich Lowry and produced by Sarah Schutte.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Why are most of the Poles wrong and where does the presidential race really stand? Will discuss all this more on the Sunday Special Edition of the editors with Robert CARE of the polling firm, the Trafalgar group, who departs from all the posters and thanks Donald Trump, is ahead of Joe Biden Irish Lowery near listening to it sure you podcast cast a regular schedule. Programming will return soon and forgive us, because the auto quality of this podcast will be a little rocky, the various technical reasons want to bore you with real podcast Asher, you dad comically directly and a quarter.
We are delighted to have you, but it would be easier if you'd better for us to be made as part of your feet at industry services out there for spot by the Itunes. If you like what you hear here, please they're giving us a glowing five star view. I can't if he don't what you hear here. Please forget, I said any Robert thanks, so much for joining us going to be here so before we get started in earnest. Let's situate you a little bit where you from had to get politics how to get stolen. Well, a mob, amended partic. My whole life I'll the boy in Georgia and grew up in a South Carolina and was very about politics there and days? I live Ghana between both places have a place in Atlanta and our main offices in Atlanta, and I still have a house in the upside of soft, your honor, so you know them
got involved in politics, a very young age during the work on a staff? As a kid And you know what do the normal path of getting involved in, like college Republicans and teenager publicans, and all that stuff in that body campaigns in nice. We all the different aspects of politics in that way, in our own firm backing. Light nineties and two thousand aid we are We'll just very unsatisfied with appalling we were getting it seemed to be more accurate. That didn't seem to be a lot of thought in it. And so we are now in working with some of the call centres. I've been seeing what some of the poem gas there and just Africa hey. Let's try build something, that's a little better, and so we started building it ourselves in two thousand and eight
by two thousand and ten, we were using very statewide races and it was going. extremely well and down together. incredibly good numbers and then leading into the primaries two thousand and sixteen we were just putting some out just for kind of publicity just to get to see what kind of real yet our powers and that being the best ones in South Carolina in Georgia. So we started studying what it was that made those so different, and I am with me you know that fall. We decided that we would invest and put me out a lot of public policy ourselves, because we really had been convinced it build a better mousetrap and down. So that's what we did and we put things out ourselves and we re
attract some of the trends will dissipate that social desirability bias for people kind of say what they think. The person asked you to call wants to hear versus what their true feelings are and We ended up having an incredible year on my way. Tweet we got Pennsylvania right. We got Michigan right, we got five, we had the best of Poland, five of the of the battleground states in twenty sixteen and actually predict three sixty three thirty two on the electoral college and you know Do you like a bit of power on the side to that being a primary business and about twenty four hours. And since then, that all doing so the firm that he started late night, you that does it consulting firm, it was That way, you know consulting Anne and Maya we get along with it
direct mail integrate mail is very effective at that point. This is still can be very effective, but that was. It was predominantly a general consulting email and any iconic politician that day you worked for or that inspire you when you were first getting involved Salute I mean less of the power patient the more the operative some in Europe and South your honor, so I mean I was coming was in the land of the outward roaming. Some of our always say that some of the people that live Atwater mentor and want to men told me so I know I grew up working with the war in town, Cancer is the tariff Danny's the ride she leave Richard Clans, I mean. People that aim by himself. Time knows you know very clearly and back there have indeed been made. These guys were. All out of ways contemporaries and end
and learned a lot and you know, came up at the same time. He did and all he no quoted him and learn from him and I paid. and the times I was able to meet at war, asked that time with him and asking the question that was asked in I'd die in turn for centre of german border the Governor Beazley race. a governor when he's kind of the state rap challenging the encampment congressman in the end, the former Instead, it nominee- and you know it- we just leave- resounding victory way back then in you, don't work with all these guys guys and than involving campaigned ever Sampson lots of statewide racism itself.
And a round the country and started work any more for states in the mid nineties and at this point of working like twenty seven different states, I think was last count up top political skills at forty four different date and down so is caught quite a bit of experience, something I worked on me. Presidential campaigns and I was actually state director for southern directive. Chris Christie earlier the twenty six things like. So I have been involved in the stuff and down you know, but they shouted direct your request. If you find one that, does it wasn't you now, I tell you what my biggest challenge for follow me tat. You profess he's a good man, because, where a lot of his power patient when the campaigns over they steffy not the guy not still people He made a right for the last ten days after he dropped out just to get him to the fifteen.
and that's a stand up guy. I would never ever forget that bad, that's just a stand up guy but note, madam, I beg of you It was getting him on about Burma. That was the biggest because I'm an Alabama, you have together actual hard things and something, A team in Alabama an enemy: it's why those places is very difficult to get there. Yours and people a mean album was even then very much pro drop and down. So we We had a couple, a hard fought, Alabama, Auburn Games and tailgating parking lots, but we were able to get it done so stiff stipulating that you were really will pay. You What I found out that man, their famous for their famous for
for when somebody such as that Guy Cross Christie, it needs to be recognised, show I'm gonna go back women They only Atwater, so why do people mention his name and out the legal bases this was low down and dirty divisive politics that that we should have nothing to do with a lot of people have their own. Well, I mean you're, here's the thing people can. It is amazing what people say and what reality is We would also orchestrated a strategy that help get Ronald Reagan to win the nomination by winning Self kind of nineteen. Eighty, you know his vision was so much. Maybe maybe He has certainly made synonymous with the boy Hotmail, but that's not the whole story. That's not! Now a man's life part of it, one of the things that the little saying that our learn from what the thing that always remember firmly that the
Beltway Amelia were out, but this will be a cell. A corridor pundits miss out on is which at least stay by Joseph He said what is your average about, what a joke six pack and leave to go out and talk to regular people? And I have model where I believe in you spending time talking regular people, because you know one anecdote he's not scientific, but lots and lots of anecdote start getting very scientific in when you talk to people real people. You start getting things, but you don't get in a quick survey. that their own people open up. Do you they'll tell you stuff, they wouldn t, otherwise, among other things that will be affected, we have little gotten rid the greyhound bus across the state just to sit on the bus for three. I was talking to a regular folks,
a big, regular people guy, and I will tell you that belief came from we were in his sense of no, we were average people fate and and asked how the greatest lesson I learn and paying attention now. imagine how you guys or MAC more accurate than and sixteen had some things races he really nailed when others didn't and in eighteen, but Rhonda Santa's. I think most notably the talk a little bit about about that and they will talk about the methodology and why I think you're you're able to be more accurate, but tell us a little more about that. Your record and sixteen and eighteen Well, I mean you know we wish we run a. We did it.
we do have a low analysis, Canada. I think that here too can give a record of certain maritime. So over five years on the on the public on the rights of women, we submit a poem and there are recorded. Ninety two point: six of senator we call the. When I arrived, I will put that up against every single Ulster out there, puts. Their stuff out publicly know. There's a lot of these guys who you know they dont show you who were there? I was: are there always working for candidates and when the candidate loses it? Was there for once again that when they knew all along, but the people who in this arena and facing criticism in take the risk we are. We are raccoon, is much better than all of them and we're proud of that and part of his cook Paul people a different way. I reject a lot of the way they told
appalling industry disrupt anything other reject a lot of the sacred cows. I dont believe in long questionnaires. I think these, you know what Cowan up mom and dad I'm on a school night there trying to get the kid. dinner and get him to bed and that phone rings at seven o clock in their first to stop what they're doing and take a twenty five thirty question posed no way someone, Russia's who's. Taking these ports. Do you know anybody has got twenty five minutes to kill and await by Adobe, So what you end up, as you ever disproportionately representing the people who would like to talk about politics, which is going to say you call it a very, very conservative and the very liberal and the very valuable work and the kind of
We doubt that when elections are the people in the Middle EAST, I think that many people in the metal, when they do things that way, I think you gotta, have short questionnaires to let people participate, see. Why the lower the threshold and entreat you gonna get more average, keep all. So what for folks at their lives and what you Robert quickly on this one to button it up? So few people don't know a lot about point. What what's your screen along questioner and a short question? How many questions are you asking on each? I liked ask lest between seven nine question and the whole thing takes less than three minutes I want to do and how long it love your day, an and how many questions would a traditional ask any longer how turn everything from most of them are gonna, be north of twenty five. I mean rabies
rightly puts out one, but I think the last one I thought I had a hundred eight so I mean you know, when you're looking at these watching these media outlets, you need to check the number of question I mean it's got to be kind of a game on Twitter, where people see if holiday, Inn They treat me about how many questions question that was goes wrong, making fine, because it's like you just you Have regular people participated, yeah, ok, so questionnaires one thing: they say: you're different. What Others another thing is: we do not like to do all love calls, because, with all I've calls this thing called the social desirability buys that when the person says on the phone, but let me give you an answer that is designed to make the person asking the question be less judge mental of the person who answers it.
like this no proven phenomenon, it is half a year after year it has been around for the earth condemning if everything told the Bradley effect that matter badly run for Governor California in the eighties grown up South Carolina, we watch Jesse Helms Racing Northtown. We thought Helms factor, but it's that tend the people want to say what they think we'll make them look good and, and they don't want to be judged mass of my own they don't know so it it tends to err on the side of giving the most politically correct. Answer in Florida, water we saw in the fact again out. Another was in effect in twenty. Sixteen would drop the people not when he met there were four trot twenty eighteen in Florida, people were saying there were forgotten, who had no intention of burning, forget one, and we saw no difference and the steady toll question. However, between start and Nelson,
there was no different, so now he had made at all, but between now always all about a five percent TWAIN, and so What we do is we try. We try to minimize that by the way you minimize the social dialogue, Donnie buys you. She made the person produced by the power he'll most anonymous people, whether Twitter, Facebook in others that public account people have had. They put pictures their kids in their pets on it and then there's that one that they can create the kind of troll Billina people they stuff, like that. But that's where the real opinions are and and that's who's going to be in the voting booth. I've got to get past what you want to say in public and get to what you really feel, because what's in your heart, you know me what's on that ballot. So how do you make your? How do you make help you someone to feel anonymous? Well, first,
digital questionnaires when they get it. The attacks to get the email, other online platforms and their people No, when you do a lot call, but it but really push the anonymous part This is your anonymous say. So the other thing is, and thank goodness, followed by bless me we get you wouldn't believe me my times, we send somebody a power call somebody on your email- and they say. Is this a real power. and were able to manage them back or tell hate. You don't stop. I now Google was. Put our name anger when you tell us when you oil, appalling got me. Ok and it just puts them a great Eads, because well, don't wanna be set up. They don't you know people believe it or not. They ve seen all the staff of people being shame for their opinion, people losing their jobs, and me I hear stories What time about? Well, I did want to say anything about it.
Was asking you don't know what they were taken me me. People are very suspect this day and age, and a lot of conserving especially had been worn out from expressing concern. We believe, and so does. The other thing have to realise it is concerned with less likely to participate In general, we see a father one refusal rate among conservatives, yet you gotta work very hard to get a fair representation of travellers. When you do any kind of a survey has they just don't do it don't mean, as I pointed out, that the ratios conserve is refusing to progressive. Refusing yes, I must, especially when you have a state. The wretched by party is also democrat republican ratio and, frankly,
was forty one without one son state and it got worse in the last few weeks. They just say here so so how do you go about doing it for servicing their hybrid of life? Carson, health hazard, yeah how'd, you do it well. Our methodology is explaining that data on our website is also about be explaining. Maybe they'll based these collection methods of love, Colorado, calls text, emails and a couple that we call our proprietary digital technology, that we don't explain, but it also digital. We believe the more different ways that you get the information, the mobile
what state can be and we believe in getting information the way people are most likely participate. I mean to me if you think you're going to get young people to participate in a poll that you don't send them by text. You can yourself, I mean young people, you would you would be shocked by their spots. We can get when y'all people get attacked Call- and I don't mean one of those text- a link somewhere and you're. Taking a lot, I mean like back and forth texting the pole. It is a participation, it's a great threshold and you get a lot of open. Spain that way, and then you got amazes me here, you just can't make gases. May I say people El thank the young people of a home one. Your level out of the house. I just inside
I would never told you to literally attacks they if they text back a question. Some replies, We we yet we are set up, we text the pole and and as they are two questions they get the next question. Absolutely you set up that way? Will we it's something somewhere built outbreak Some were very proud of it and we have it can be very labour intensive at some point but yeah so that they go back and for them just go and often some random link somewhere. These people are land, random lakes. Honourable, does anyone else do it this way, I don't know.
I know some of the body with others I found that did not do it this way, maybe depending upon clicking linked together both outside, but you two other pulsars text they tax when they use a tax links here, a cataclysm link so make the questionnaire make people feel anonymous coming at people these these various methods, any anything anything else that sets the tone What you guys do not yet what the other is is how, as how we build our last one of these were discovered in Georgia and after I and the primary and twenty sixteen was all phenomena, people loading any people voting who didn't know how to use the touch machines. People show up
Who had voted in fifteen years, and so we cannot build what we call a fingerprint week. We built the list of characteristics these people all seem to have once they all share. Characteristics that the team common. So so, when, when we build our list of, we we think is going to vote. Certainly we didn't twenty. Sixteen, we included those people a percentage relative to how they participate in the primary in the other policies, probably wouldn't even reaching out these people. I mean how many policies in the past would have reached out to people who had not murdered in twenty. Two thousand. Eight twelve did two thousand two thousand twelve or any of the other primary and said there are possible, were for twenty thousand review
we did, we included them on our farmers, because we saw a pattern and without those people mark just like that, they were small percentage but cannot be ignored. And so we put our list of likely. Voters is another, we consider proprietor. We tell you like reverse: it is likely that is based on what we believe. The turnout is likely to be. How about that guy you're good at the last part about that is some of these holes space, the main ones based their demographics, own exit polls and not hard data, which I think is complete, and sadly, I've seen crazy numbers that a representation of what this many people turned out in this problem here in this election and first of all, exit polls can can give you a set about people voting, but.
How many people of a certain age, ethnicity, geography turned out you ain't gonna! Guess it that it's a noble number and every single state maintains those statistics. So why in the world are using exit Paul data to predict? You know age groups that are going to turn out and demographic groups. Turn out when you can actually look at real elections and see how they did turn out and then, if you walked in and then you can make adjustments to it. But if you start with your basis of a bad number, then you can't even and test hey correctly, and I see them doing that all the time but again with the media exit pulse of sacrificing, remember, vision, saying exit balls, they happen
it's never been six o clock four years ago, because those exit polls show here my wedding and that's why they're, using six hours later, a three outlet in some cases show- and I wanted to come back and dig in a little more detail on couple business. Then we'll talk about waste generation become presidential risk but in any other level, mythological matters as such. three you guys part are we had him off and the only other thing is- and I think this is important- is we don't do estate with less than a thousand? We dont believe, and we we see these paused for five hundred six obey the first day. I don't buy that emerge too, where we will not produce a power for even this
small estate with under a thousand said, because when you get a thousand used, you get a sample solid. and so we don't believe in small samples and that's why such a low margin there cuz, we just don't believe them. What's it? What's your margin of error typically well when you, when you stay in the arena, just between a thousand one hundred you're, almost always gonna, be based. When once you get you get a screen, standards can be under three hundred three under an end honey surveys. You see there are five hundred. What are what the margin of error and those like five or six set up, I'm not the state proudly the other stuff. But yes, I wonder how Homesick sounded the margin. Errors speaks for itself in check out. Roquelaire politics me out here: ok, so just just come back a few other things here, so that.
That cut a low propensity voter. If that's correct term here, though you're going out the showing up twice in not having voted in recent presidential elections, so. building that kind of voter into your model there to certain demographic characteristics, I know sort of secret sauce, but a certain demographic characteristics that would you need you to believe not just ended as persons that behavioral yeah like what I'll give you one, I'm not getting those cigarettes house, but having a hunting or fishing licence was one of them can we use for consumer data what all kind of a ban to it? Got it and then
So this matter of can explain for Tibet, because I think it is confusing to a lot of people, so pulsars need to have a model or a gas writer of who's gonna turn out, which seems like that's the whole ball game or his and how are you gonna like that scientifically agree that so we really to hold? It definitely is on the margins. Absolutely and again, the small you're sample size, the more that kinda you out of work to do so, but so how to pulsars? Go that determine that again? How are you guys different than the justice hypothetically, how see the electorate different this time around and say ABC News would otherwise
three journal tat. Basically, you because I have a windows but looking toward a there, but I think that there is not just on how you look at that. It's it's. It also goes to a thing called away, when you didn't up to their models, so let me give you no matter what waiting means right. Let's say that your goal was to get thirty five percent republican particular policy I will well you- and I now know that Republicans less like at this painting the policy- you have to call a lotta people did yet the affair sample over public until its. I only get twenty two percent Yeah: what's down in the industries, they can't wait. You give that twenty two percent of the weight of thirty five, so it mostly enhances our strong, is it makes it represents a higher portion.
Well, first of all, the better you do in getting an even sample, which is what I was talking about with a different method, the less waiting here. Are we really like the fact that we don't have to wait very much rushed up a J close to what we did, because we will focus on getting the sample all through it every single day at the end of the night we go to a place. Where are we lacking? We need more from this gratulation. We didn't get enough. This remedy it now to make sure we get the sampling. So when they wait up apple Republicans, now. They're gonna give that twenty two they got the strength of thirty five. Well, the problem is of those Republicans were willing to participate in polls, and once you dont, like drop, can't wait. Tat trouble so immediately
within the joint dupes. They probably overrepresented the anti tromp Republicans. You never never trumpet I've well when you wait, up from fourteen to thirty five. Now you have scheme an already bad representation sample, so that's kind of inherent me how they can be so off now. As far as we do in the town, I'll be. There are some kind of general consensus, the people, We thus can be how you turn out. You know that. Banded. There wasn't. Six thousand two hundred and nineteen we built that into our switch back to her youth turnout in the one thousand. Six hundred and ninety not sure it's going to happen, but I really rather just I'd. Rather male bananas if it's gonna happen and then, if it doesn't fine, but certainly Err on the side of anticipating that they ve been perception that either
this will be a stronger, a load of not just you. Forgive me The youngest group is no longer millennial, most of the millennium following the second age group, so you have to give them more accurately. Turning out also, you have to look at the turn out of women versus man, especially in a team. So you have to consider that an ad at that meeting Anne and look at the high point, and so in the end and the way in the media is doing and so have we is. We have taken the power that the middle to older white voter that number and each day is projected lower than it wasn't. It. In writing as a percentage, because that that's where their mouth trending and instead of trying to block that-
we're just like. I will do that and we're still gonna get the drugs even at that doesn't happen. So but one window in a thousand it. It's not gonna move us very much, but also have the phenomenon of some states is pretty simple. What is Europe, but what is your participation republican version Democrat but in some state is not is, is not as easy It states that dont register my party, where you have to infer what party somebody's in ok and so they are on their way to infer a party well in states that have a different presidential primary from their state primary. You may cease somebody who vote routinely in the democratic presidential preference primary, which is in the spring a winner, and yet when they were in a regular primary and summer, they vote and the local theirs.
primary, the Republican where they republican a Democrat. I would tell you that the national election is where they express their actual political philosophy and the local lights and the state one election. They were in the primary bit let's and participate in local elections the most, but That is again a variable how'd. You use a party when estate doesn't do for you, because it's open primaries, so you have to consider all of that and how each state does it and they are all different. So, yes, there are a lot of variables and bring their stand together and that's why you're not gonna see exactly the same stuff, but we ve tried to anticipate that away We anticipated it very well in what we did in sixteen we're gonna do that again mission hell! But let us talk about this, you, but
Let me just one last question is kind of about method, so the conventional wisdom is worth looking at balls. books on one Paul. In a look at the average look at the five thirty eight average, the real, clear politics, our little faster, we'll get on with it and look I politics, It has an agenda and what our averages are averages. Useful shit should I you know, sadly, the average over it we'll talk about this in a second? What Egypt, but you have your latest, I'm not mistaken- has trumped up one in Michigan, so should I should I take that an end as that is the picture of Michigan worry reoccur. Politics average is what at this very moment, but might be five or six points toss provided that the average an average. An average works a lot of the time you people are doing the same type of Poland.
And they obviously I will tell you, I think we're going out perform the even the rocard report. the carriage which came a lot closer to getting the getting the race of right and sixteen and eighteen in any other better did. But I think a minute I'll tell you why? just think we're gonna be closed, and I actually think Trump is going to do a little matter. Then we're saying, because we can eliminate this soon. I believe that we can only minimize it. I can look it up it Are you all right now, but I should drop down by two. I can see people in that pole. who told me undecided Jorgensen, provided that I dont believe about free by the drop back. I can't put it the bulk. Is I write by it, but I think they will but I thought you were hiding novel and destiny. How do you look at that and see the look at other questions
I'll look at their voting patterns in their histories Yet we are not about questions and gives a clue as to where they are. You know, in twenty six, we talk a lot about our neighbour question and now there are some. You know actually said I poster to using it without giving us credit and they know who they are and when they go where you may gather their own, maybe they'll tell some people, but I will not tell him that shows. Let us talk about the reason, so everyone very much safer, you guys, maybe a few other exceptions- has taught national and and what was that How important national poles are in at the window and then they all right, but I don't think I doubt very much time left their border about nice about president. Why, since irrelevant.
Difficult the other matter or college and is made by the contest, Ya Ali all. I care about electoral college because we don't do present that way and and the thing is it, it is so helpful Lily only distract because what you and I haven't like when twenty sixteen is- they botched it and they come what will we got the net? You? No one, that the national stop it. You know that the national average was great. Ok, that that's not how we like president right. But I want it almost at once, but that has no impact on who wins arise. So do you think I'm gonna put you to add to the logical conclusion, and so it is not do not really find it meaningful again was gallery acquire politics average if it nationally its plastics Biden or post you button.
I probably just go to the national funding reality because this here's the thing as bad as it is to try to pull state a state with a thousand people. you have any idea how to do a nation, because Morocco, you every state, is different about party registration, so We need new party waiting, our national one, new user exit polls relied on the data, getting will be flawed when you start start getting into What does that? Well, ok in this date, they don't regiment parties are worth innocent man you got you got, and a lot of math it's easily skewball. At that point, you started making two not every state that every stadium make sure that you are a citizen to vote.
How do you do that? You, and I both know there are states who let non citizens about, so it s really excuse so badly is just not it so difficult to do it right also, knowing that the more urban Our suburban an area is more like to participate poles. So a lot of these national when you get right down to our representatives and fire and ass the farming signs, so them at the end to the states. First of all that the Trump boxes, as I understand it there, there capsule capsule view. This just tell me whether you agree with his serves as a promise for this discussion is assuming that they hold
all the rest of their sixteen states, but they they win North Carolina. They win Florida. They when Georgia, the winner, is owner and then they just need. When one of Minnesota Michigan we ve gotten Pennsylvania and he's reelected, not without a private looking up and then have an Africa about self to do it miss again and Pennsylvania So sudden them it was gonna get go through them. So how do you have you been in North Carolina survey that guy I? What what we're watching.
and you're gonna. I dont think you, I think, where we re not going to begin with. I think we're the scandal that the USA candidate on the Democrat Siders only gonna help shore tromp up there, so you think he's using digital guy, yet anti movies, Knockdown Kara DAB never far from responding. Clodagh, when discussing just not any foreign aid, literally Florida, Everything has gone the right direction for Trump in Florida I mean when you look at it at the fifty change and difference in in in in party registration, if it's as tight as ever been cut. Ass, the deficit for what it was four years ago. When you look at just so, in hispanic community and so much attention to
the collapse of the year, the socialist government in Venezuela and just a few spend some time talking folks down down there and just how angry. They are about socialism and how scared they are about. They have a democratic party. We see incredible hispanic bout. Ah, there's also significant. They active jewish vote in Florida. You gonna make it. you know when jewish grandchildren and your son in law and daughter- and I have done things that are unheard Africa in political history for Israel so deftly, but we ve seen significant increase even there and in part as a state that is very much about terrorism and get autonomy they benefit if the drum economy- and we see that manifested in so far as the state- it really is
That is very common is very dependent on space and a lot of people. Who had seen and new energy towards base and those people break disproportionately for crop for others. Like he's gotta wear any might move, there might sound state, I just never they move on. I just don't think that some in the cart shuddered ye did propose that have some kind of in this post first debate period, shown by three or four points implore you just don't don't credit what I'm aware, we still have a social viability, buys it's everywhere and it surely and listened distinctly possible For five percent, even beyond what we have. so maybe it's just I've got a unit on prevention is always so you think advice account for as much as for five points
I think that this could be eight point. I don't know how big it is. I do not know how big it is because the people who will not Chris Patten Balls is at an all time rapid, and so I can't tell you what it is. I can tell you we met a mark about what we do, but we do want a lemon Erika back. Looking up also see people better there you, look at some of the number he always show and elsewhere on these powers, and you think Even when they had a much more known, libertarian nominee, they weren't power like the best and I'm telling you a lot of those people are getting in that room for drop their just now, when the fire right now. Maybe we asked questions, it really there's no way you answer those questions, the way that we have people ask them
and the river do they they say. Therefore, now when I put you down, for you said you were four, but I can tell that even with us, it is it it's gonna, be about that, there is an intensity this out there and I'll give you. We tell open. we've done a little live pet me better project and we've been hitting these people that that have voted one time between six between sixteen and one thousand nine hundred and ninety two one time and those people as a solid average. Multiple multiple bay, probably fifty thousand album gown proof for five thousand despairing power. So far, fifty eight percent of crop soft.
And a lot of times more than a third of them say they are definitely going to vote this time and the other said they're consider that they are for Trump and and those people are not people everybody's counting on boating and in a wheat, wheat me see, changes and party registration. We see increased, nothing Pennsylvania had a significant republican increase, So I think that the way is not just coming social desirability. It's gonna be turn out. This election has never been a persuasion election day. Motivational life has been that from day one, I'm gonna go, I don't have a healthy economy. Stupid there's, never been a higher number people say there better opening for four years ago, even it even at this point a pandemic people still saying that in many ways is tromp economy was chocolate for people
never tasted chocolate and they really liked it and then all the sudden, the spiders came, they can have their chocolate anymore and they won't a way to get back to the shop and they see Trump pass away How many persuadable voters are there? What website electorate the? they really are at times a month. Later I mean I don't know, but naturally without saying this wing states, it's probably less than a point I have. Is that so point have MAC. If that I know what they are? Almost every publisher? Maybe two and a half one but among those, the weather entering question did not really undecided. Now the very very small margin, but even Yad adults they're, very few people who don't know about for adults.
I've, never. We bought in the whole undecided thing as a whole, but certainly Anderson, and when you have name recognition achieve if your understanding. Your counted out, when can you ve heard me the name? I got that we're in the rail network. You have ninety nine percent name recognition beloved candidates. This is not like you how many towns and our right on my legs? Well, both the candle think out of the same, we heard that a drop in Heaven think about where the wonderful made about the same? Have you heard anybody say that the issue anybody know think about that. Tom in any of our lives. We can remember some nobody's. As the elections, I what's the difference in these two. Turn, the site. Why
so I am not in a race but in other races. Besides headed dog catch, you were there, no, no anyone, but in some and presidential race will why, in the past of people, said their undecided and why the attended not abide by it went up when they do, for I know about his summer undecided. But beside the other, there's a big number I mean do I believe that, yes and in a lot of reaction that that I decided five or six percent absolutely lyrics, in no other way. The country's fifteen, all the countries anywhere near that I mean there are people who talk about all the different different sources there that people say the young so many Republican somewhere Democrat summit are independent.
But there have been numerous studies that I've seen quite a bear very credible that when you get right down to it, most people can now inside of the alarm. So let's keep gauntleted state you, Georgia, you had to simplifying the night air. Now georgian tax, it's not gonna happen there's no way the ban is than when you order tat. I may I really would prescribe rehab free buying things that have happened. I gonna, why not like him up he's not even in the realm of possibility, just not enough voters, London, now let none the gun about the need to do that, because what what's what's problem? Is there
looking at one off like camp and, like you, take crews but they're. Not look at the european banks. Forget the people, such as having problems with care and some look look at the way, the rest, the republic and they look whether a publican base was not right. Much higher, forget tat, produces race and go look and see how the rabbit did and how metallic Governor Patrick did now. The republican base in both places is significant and tropical bring out people.
It just didn't turn out an eighteen Arizona. I seen where the weed, I think I think Sally has some ground to make up about five points behind Trump, but I think Trump will probably win the state and went in a backup of points or more and if he wasn't big enough makes out has a shot. So so, let's go to Pennsylvania and Michigan Wisconsin Minnesota kind of upper Midwest, I think I did what you right now. We ve got him down and Pennsylvania. I beg you were held the day, the underside of breakdown trumpeting dismembered, you probably when Pennsylvania, but I'm gonna give a caviar on only Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania to be the number one state that trumpeted when have stolen, form, vote or fraud
that's the way you ve had a lot of other far over the years and giving people and solicited absolute ballot is literally light in voting for operations steroids. So I'd do thinking when Pennsylvania, but I don't think it's a state is most likely will not get about from Miss. I think that we have in the head of mission. I think you will win mission. I think it's. A combination of a lot of things are one people are sick over the way Whittemore has just haphazard. We handle these large towns. There is so much frustration on the ground and ambition. And they don't buy, don't like what they dealt with the green new deal. Stuff really scared them on this, isn't that they have,
out of industry jobs. They have enjoyed some some real good economic times, of being president and they just worried that it's not gonna continue here, Barton takes over and the euro that the hard extremes of his party will take. Control in Michigan is gonna, be reshaped and some of the industries that they count on her going to go away, and then I think that Michigan is also unique in the Senate. Candidate is a plus or President Trump saying John James Phelps, Crop John changes will bring out there people who are going about for John James who ever you know are not rich Republicans and ass. He saw given proper second love because trouble his doings extremely well with his barracks and African Americans compared any Republican along.
All of our policies are well both groups, so I think mission has nice combination for travel- and and I think I see mission as a place that I think it is most likely of the force date. Earn and receive the wind that he earns outside and then Wisconsin Faint Wisconsin gonna be a little bit of adult fight, but that I think quite a mean. We're gonna be rolling out something in Wisconsin, probably tomorrow, so that your sake too much about was cards right now, but I think it is good, is very, very close and down was gases going depend on exactly how much hidden? That's really there We gotta be very, very nice. People really want to be pleasant, and I have found that data.
Andy fallen. Social viability buys at a higher level than some other state. Minnesota had been in a month and a half, and so I just can't tell you last week I was there with there twice and we had one with bad, not five. We had one, it was there. Even so I just can't take it is now, but I would definitely tell you you're Minnesota is imply. That will be very good news for that. I don't see Minnesota, making the difference for Trop when you're losing. College. I see it being gravy, so so you see a in electoral college terms a fairly comfortable come the courier trumpet read, it might be on a par with twenty six deal. You know now I mean if the waivers as big as it could be. Maybe
I still think with other right now. I'm ever ever all have the right. Now. My best gas will be an electoral, cowardly college. Victory in that car had to suddenly slow to ease the title I told so. Did you guys see any effect, inoculate notable on They're pulling after the first debate, what do they, let you had the debate on what was can starve again the maybe walks she didn't want to convince you. What was the debate, but it wasn't the debate that this is this. Is the agenda driven this because we actually asked people what what did, if you were the first we'd better get word dad. We had a week of people celebrating a great legacy. Well, whatever some I've been celebrated like that, and the fact that you want Trump to replace her
and then the media running all the clips of Republicans appearing to be hypocritical. That's not haven't made always say: hypocrisy, politician that wars paid the price for Apocracy Republican from perceived to be hypocritical and we saw things start dropping right. Then then, what's he announced his big, it becomes about the pit And not about whether he should pit, but right is that happen that I believe that was Saturday. So by the time get the Monday. The story that I guess all of us in power politics just assumed was common. Some sort of the said trot been paying taxes. Well, you know insiders now this kind of stuff- and we all think of big business people would be lost for some years been gained
you, a lot of those people up at the top of everybody agrees to tax system is fair and effective tax rate on somebody super rich people is crazy. Love, that's all wasn't shocking to any of us. who understand that all the shock anybody who's been following politic. They all kind of assumed you probably didn't pay a lot of taxes. Well, it was kind of shocking for people who have low information voters throughout their lives. In this light, went about not had no bad. So again, I think was a little bit of it wasn't somewhere. She people work for him is that they were hasn't say we saw undecided grow, not national trumped freak and they want to ban the undecided screw that I'm a problem about from anyway now add the debate too and people who, like crop body wandered about people, didn't like drunk thought. Madame
the debate, but those few were still cannot. In know. I don't really. There are people who were kind of frustrated with what they had about tax or their frustrated about the republican procedure, republican perceived hypocrisy on the core pick, I'm the debate just didn't, set them well because this race, when this raised about Trop personality and some people were wrong here. My wedding where's, that both bottom lines and where they were strong leader and when the economy he's winning, and so I would tell you that was about that was about is the attitude the debate that was about revelation, though taxes that was about rules, Berrigan Burger, perceive republican hypocrisy and replace you and that's where we see it starting to dissipate now, because Amy Coordinator has turned out to be very popular.
Like he's very much metal America she's, articulate, Gina, Smart, she she's, only a genius and the great mom, and that has been buried benefiting crop. There's no question: that so I built I wouldn't put it all on the debate by any means that that's not when we started see in it. You start scene at the weak and burn past and resolved to actual worse night was the night. The story came about taxes, and- and how do you view the the issue matrix in and this race? The crucial boy has the economies the top issue in Trump, nearly had, although not all the point is that if some has them as it has them tied with with Biden, but then you know Covid, nineteen healthcare of being right up there and special and Covid nineteen,
since ratings being being low. Had he look at all that we don't think of we ve literally not seen covered in the top when people start yet an anonymous, an honest and I bear its economy, economy economy accounts Because they have made that calculation, we asked the girl with question. We ask Europe, And the answers of hey, I'm gonna stay in my home until about a vaccine, her I'm stay home and only leave in emergencies. There's mattresses! I think this whole thing is overblown and then there's members nature that growing, which is I'm going, do the stuff. I need to keep my families aid for the can, but when I going stay home and live in fear, we're gonna live life. That was the thing is overblown is over. Fifty sixty percent mistakes now.
people are worried about their bottom line when they are weighing the rest of what happens to their family and their income. By not going to work versus the rest of the virus and they're taking the precautions, they think they need to take that we're in the master wash their hands. They worried about that they're worried about how they can feed that family. Are we going to get back to an economy that they were happy with You got was it you, ve got fifty seven percent people say there better off. There were four years ago. That is a real number that is a real measurable that transcends time and also a strong leader This guy's not losing on whose a strong leader or not similar room that debate, but he read. The debate he ran over the moderator he ran everybody now by looks,
Ngos are without you know, he's a make a week later, like it or not. That did not contradict strong leader and did not contradict we're on the economy and that man Happy Bergen about even people who are married, crop and don't liking. her husband was having conversations right now about what happened, divide, wins therefore, one day in their plans. and there will be a lot knows pension and voting for trot going back so a couple of things for I let you go so what do you and you had kind of a percentage odds. Other complementary and I are objecting to seventy latterly, but
There are therefore no later than two chances berwin and then sold. There still gives some substantial chances that bind would win. What what would abide and win? Look like what? What would the electorate look like? What would he be? Issues are states that will promote the top abandon. When would be a tremendous, a? U turn but we ve never seen before it would be a week. We turn out just general, a! U turn out a! U turn out.
a high value we ve never seen before a turn out, no one that has the is impossible. Every week turn up this election running an outright the minimum of weapon. It would also be the Republicans greatest weakness which is not having you plan to address healthcare. It would be mom and dad who actually like Trop, were scared to death. They're, not gonna, yeah what about medicine for their children? Turning out and voting on that issue alone, it would be people who wanted to vote for trot and somehow
and I don't think this is very likely, but somehow just became convinced by all the media polls that he had no chance. We lost their enthusiasm. I think we have to be combination thanks reverse problem. You turn out and down we turn out on the issue of health care and listen Democrats for Smart. That's why they're not perfect, Tony Blair at about abortion and gun their paper about health care. It is the Republicans Achilles heel and is exposed. It is obvious- and you know experience somebody who likes Trump policy. They like his tax, could they like. Everything he does. He thinks. Not only by asthma, medicine from my kid they come over their eyes were medicine. It is right and then the biggest problem for Republicans
And that's why I didn't have top America there smart and then Robert. That said it did. Do you think that the Senate followed him Trump wins Republican, hold the Senate and Vice Versa Biden, winds Democrats. Take the sad anything where were you when we differ from it, that's always demand on the Senate, general optical races. Tell you what's going to happen. Maine, because main is very interesting. I got an independent, senator and you know cause, like for cabin on. Maybe she's gonna be gets Colbert mind you gonna make their own decision. Can we get a day? What that's gonna bake? It does not gonna, be effected by mass transit, real estate race, I do worried that arm out, I wouldn't say that I think that Cholera can be a heavy lived to get going about. I do that
John James is Goin to defeat year. Bidders, though done Jones is gonna lose the top level. I think there is a top up right. Right now in the meantime and though the poor We have shown it yet, but we haven't been there again. I thank the scan of probably put tell us back in and Mcsally is, then, we really close if crop winds and it won't because if he does so, I think the go may still hang on the Senate, but one even with a tight drop laws with a big drop loves. It will go but
the big enough again, don't arabic, the waiver. If the wave is big enough, look you pick up some places like Minnesota and all the income. That's what back in the trunk gets within three and a half points in Colorado. Gardeners got him your shot. Ok, that's rush! Even listening to a national view. Podcasting we broadcast retransmission account is game without expressed with provision for you magazine is strictly pro gibbeted, despite gases were produced by the incomparable surgery and make us out better than we deserve our regularly scheduled programming will return soon. Thank you, Robert, and thank especially to argue for listening where the editors and I'll see you.
Transcript generated on 2020-11-01.