« The Weeds

America’s moral failure on climate

2018-10-16

Sarah, Ezra, and Matt debate the new IPCC report, William Nordhaus's Nobel Prize, and a hot new working paper about Medicaid contraction. References and further reading: The IPCC report on the impact of global warming David Roberts’s piece on the fight over the carbon tax in Washington state during 2016 Earl Swift tells of the disappearing Tangier Island in his book Chesapeake Requiem A white paper on the effects of disenrollment from Medicaid A contrasting paper on the effects of disenrollment led by Craig Garthwaite 

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Yeah. This is Marquez Brownie Acre and Cuba HD, and this is Andrew, Manga Nellie. We will introduce you to our podcast way, form the new sedition to the Vocs media podcast network, so I've spent over ten years reviewing tech products and consumer electronics for millions of people on the incubation, Youtube Channel and now on the way form podcast Andrew and I use that experience to dig even deeper into latest tech for smartphones too. I max to electric cars. So if you're gadget, lover or attack head or if you just want to figure out whether the latest gadget is worth your harder in cash, give us a lesson say can find way: form the empty beauty podcast on your favorite Pakistan. Every Friday, see
over there. Ok, we got when the money hello, welcome to another episode of the weeds on the box media Potass network. I met with places with as recline and Sarah Cliff. We gotta in on Friday, we ve got another special midterms episode coming for you to Morrow, but today we wanted to get serious, get real talk about the big picture, talk about the climate change and the IPCC report as what is that
you see, stand for a wide, a genuinely do not prepare for that question every segment I live. I like. I look so deeply in this report. I like find out who wrote it had this you'd. Send him intergovernmental panel on climate change will not make sense to have it you really. You really deserved my authority even afford a year die. So let's talk about what what's going on this report Oh back, when they were negotiating Paris, climate agreement there were a kind of interesting fight that broke out over what the world's target for climate change should be. The generally accepted number is two degrees celsius, which is, I think, the three and a half through point, seven degrees, Fahrenheit, roughly and a lot of countries practically small island countries, but about fifty countries that are, and usually climate vulnerable. The came forth and said two degrees celsius is in an ok target like two degrees celsius means we are underwater and
aren't you be one point, five degrees celsius which its we're saying and wheels hesitantly. We're not attracted me either of these goals, but they came forward and said that the global target here is calamitous for them, and so there is a strange compromise reached where the target remained two degrees celsius, but there is a Extra target created you know like, but would be really great, is if we hold it to one point, five degrees, and so as part of that the IPCC was directed to produce report on one point, five degrees of warming which again is lower than both generally been estimating, is actually not been much. Research on and discussion of, the one point five degrees celsius target. So this report, written edited by ninety one scientists from forty countries, analyzing more than six thousand scientific studies sake. What you're seeing here is a like international scientific community consensus and it finds a couple things first,
the warming up to one point. Five degrees Celsius would incur fifty four trillion dollars in damage and if it goes up to two degrees that goes up to sixty nine trillion dollars in damage, but leave begins going up above that you begin to get into that three degrees, three and a half degrees But the numbers magnify they get into that many hundreds of trillions of dollars or damage like eat. You begin to get into calamity that we actually don't really know how to effectively model. But the other thing that the report says, in addition to that there will be really really serious warming problems from one hundred five degrees celsius is. If we in no way on track to stop that have a reasonable chance of limb. warming to one point: five degrees global co2. Emissions are now about forty billion tonnes. Here they will need to be halved by twenty thirty and basically zero by twenty fifty and on top of that, zero by train fifty, we need to be doing probably carbon capture out of the atmosphere, which is incredibly affordable, currently like we are pulling out of the purse climate agreements so that they purchase report
that one point five degrees is really bad, the cost of a globally would be really severe. A lot of countries for some countries will be very manageable. For some countries, it'll will be disastrous. I mean be the end of that country and in order to stop we would have to be doing a world war to scale mobilization around climate that nobody's either considering right now with Egypt, were saying we are on track for three three and a half degree celsius of warming, so not just the two degrees but signify higher than that and into the range, where Modeling begins to break down because the amount of damage or doing to go why Miss Sphere is just beyond. We have enough experience to say confidently what will happen in it. So this is scary. port one wages are things about it? Is it got a lot of attention, despite? I think that surprise lobby, the climate community. We ve on track to be above two degrees celsius for so long that tab airport about one point, five come out and get. be a real moment of mass attention was interesting, but it doesn't look like
happen out of it. Donald Trump said he'd like to see these scientists who are saying the stuff because he doesn't believe them so work the where we were, but with more information about how bout it's gonna get and how quickly you. I think I find I'm at a very difficult topic to cover it fills me with like an existential threat that I can do nothing about is very different from like the area that I focus on health care, where, like good things, happen and bad things happen and, like you, see, actual policy change in real time, whereas climate seems to be an area like I've. Just fine very hard to think about the man. I think that's like kind of what is going on with this report and why I've got the attention it dead is be. Has it came with this analysis of a massive amount of research incomes a very good stark conclusion like. I think the thing that jumps out to me about this report. Is that even the best case scenario, which is one that we're not even like moving tor? in any sort of realistic way is is bad we're still talking about
a lot of animals is habitat we're talking about c rise. You know we're talking about bad things happening in its just like a magnitude of how bad is it going Gatt, and I think one of things eggs a report like this. You hard for me we did I just is. It is hard to come out of this licking okay. Now what like what are we actually like? What would we actually do if we thought likely crap? This is a big problem. United CNN got a fair amount of marking for running an article. Those turn off your light bulbs and eat less meat, and it's like very like bold, nothing more Like those things are not you know, actually an individual's choices on that level are not going to be. The solution to this one of the things that you know. I've been reading a lot from our colleague Dave Robert Cigarettes, lot about climate and you know what it thinks he points out as those technologies you're talking about. You know the carbon capture, the ones we think we need to use, don't even exist yet, nor does the industry to create the technologies that
What kind of thinking on at this point so I find it a very difficult area to put a lot of my energy to thinking about, because the consequences are both so significant in, the things we would need to do to even get to like the least bad. scenario are ones that we're not taking steps towards. At this point, yeah. I don't know. I have a lot of thoughts about this, but one thing but like I have not loved the sort of, like second and third degree like copy of a copy of a copy framing of what this report says or what I and says that I've seen him out there like I've, seen a lot of people. You know who are like frustrated by political. Nonsense about Elizabeth Warren's, Cherokee ancestry being like also as we like a report came out saying the world is doomed in twelve years and its point I think tonight,
because the people who are saying that I think their intention is to create a sense of urgency but, like their actual effect, is to create a kind of like nihilistic, despondency and, like, I think, the most important thing that this report says as is that, like each tenth of a degree of warming is more consequential than the previous one, so that, like anything, that is done to reduce co2 emissions, is useful and constructive right and so like. We should think of things that we due to do that, and also that the degree of warming that essentially baked into the cake is very consequential and create a lot of problems for a lot of people, and we should think about what we can do to alleviate that as well. I think that the temptation to read this is a kind of like horror. Porn can be
misleading it can both get people like more upset than they need to be without actually doing anything, and also create this kind of a scenario where market Rubio had decide a really bug me like he got a question about this and he's not Donald Trump, so he doesn't like hand wave off, scientific report he said like clearly, we have to do something for low lying areas- casino he represents far, but then he's like, but I'm not gonna, destroy America's economy. unlike what is microbial actually actually going to do, and the answers like mushrooms doing anything right right, unlike what he should do, is something drawing America's economy. Would I agree, b b astray? in answer to Mr Weber hearing, you don't even know it's like doing well, what'd health from better or worse right, like notwithstanding the desires of people who work in the hard Sciences like the world,
He's not going to enact a crash twelve year programme to cut co2 emissions in half like there's no way, there's no mechanism to which that could have been there's no political consensus about it. There no tools there and so, if everything just sort of gets framed. Unlike should we take the hour, Would a positive dynamic starts with low lying pacific islands? Saying too is too much for Then you go to sign as yet. What do you need to get one point five and then they come back, and I like what you need is a global scale, world war to type mobilization, and then you hand that over to politicians and their like no we're not going to do that? And then we do nothing at all: that's bad to me like, I feel we are landing not just like science, but like politics, wise in a bad place about this, and becomes about like blame, shifting advocates right. I've complicated feelings in the space and I wanna make sure we don't you
completely and up and in a strange met a conversation about like how should one reactor this report. There was a of thought. It actually thoughtful peace advice about. Climate change, edge lords, which always attracted his tendency back to me. A number of years, I think back and twenty fourteen when box was young? I wrote some peace like like we're square How do you like seven reasons why we're not going to keep the two degree? Aren t keep warming due to Greece and the guy right you know like in the peace like. I in time and there was managed failure and the recent complicated feelings about this tendency about the very carefully architect. How much hope you responding supports with is it I do think journalistic Lee very is an imperative to describe the world ass. It is, I think it is important not that were doomed because we're not and certain if you live in America, you're not doomed, I've, a real problem with the strain of communism. The world is going to become uninhabitable
world there's no evidence in my view that the world can become uninhabitable like that is not what we're looking for towards, but please, druids and hundreds of millions of people in Bangladesh could be display. But there's really, though, that you say what the websites that that's, what I'm saying itself, one of the things that I think is the the important thing. Is it I think that we are currently on track, for a really terrifying kind of failure, and it should be said this happens in life all the time we let Tens of millions of people in America be uninsured. We have global extreme poverty were constantly failing against a basin of what we would be arriving. Morally speaking should be doing, but there's a question like how well we ve Oh how seriously we fail on end again like I think that the value of this report is showing that it is these massive scaling. Differences between one point: five degrees celsius, two degrees, two point two and two point: five to one three and any thing to do is really valuable within that space. I dont know
honestly how you push action here. I think it is worth noting in his maybe a good thing to talk about here. You will you go back fifteen years on climate conversation, you back to two thousand and eight and John Mccain has a cap and trade plan in his platform I always think of there being a real inflection point in the Republican Party where, as our number it in its past. My miss remember this, but but I dont think I am right after the election, so now that the Mccain pale and ticket which again had a cap and trade plan is done and basically the first thing. Sarah Palin does in a serious way in politics right after that issue publishes an option in the Washington Post, packing like Barack Obama's energy taxes right cheek. She publishes immediately and up at coming out against concentrate plans coming out against any kind of carbon pricing, and this is where I think It's hard to remember this, but so pound was looked at as like the leader of the working party, which is to be a little too early, like Donald Trump, became like the pale and ask leader
Republican Party just a couple years later, but she was being taken very serious, and she sent instantly. This incredibly strong signal does not Republicans would be going so publicans, they pulled out a Paris. It looks like this EL if they elect thus far, I guy who that probably can elect, which my film is believed. It breaks my heart: there were elected, a pot of Paris. It gives companies abiding by Paris, and nobody else is gonna paid by parasite in alarm, and so there is a very difficult political problem, here- and it is not one that I feel anybody has a super clear approach to solving save like a little bit the technology and science space like I know CNN got made fun over things like eat, less meat, but meat is one of those things where it does have a huge carbon impact, and if the people who are trying to create plant based meets our lab based meets, are able to do it very quickly like that, can really help and like Elon Musk gets a lot of shit these days for being not on twitter but pushing towards electric.
Haitian of things, in particular, cars, which I think like he's puddle, leverage on the whole industry through Tessa like that stuff could really help, and so it's a good sign inside the base is moving forward pretty fast, but like the human will and politics side of it, isn't the one thing that I I do think is really important to say that this is not unsolvable. It is. Hoddan unsolvable problem, it is not even that costly problem to solve, although the coordination of it would be really difficult or at least to keep to manageable levels, are relatively manage. Levels it is something we are not doing, not something we can do and like we are not doing it for a lot of complex politically. I'm not sure that nihilism or despair edge autism is really the reason. I think that as a response to watching political systems on this fail again again and again and not just fell but move in the wrong direction. I am not in a space like I wanna, be super indicting. That responses I think people getting upset on Twitter is like
but, however, but there's no real like political issue here, I think it's worth saying: Flylike. We are moving in the wrong direction and I do think like at the same time, people trying to be somewhat hopeful like that needs to be looked at in a serious way and dealt with in a serious way like it is politics. The collision are going in the right way to go in the wrong way, and I dont think people have like really good theories of how to reverse that. Yeah. I think so. I guess the one place where you see policy, possibly going in the right way as this ballot, that Washington State has to create a state based carbon tax, which would be the first in the United States Then it's I mean it's one like I don't feel super and again It goes back to how different climate policy as from a lot of different policies that we are thinking about it looking at in how global it is where it would be a pretty huge deal for people see too, not just the legislature, but actually people to vote for a carbon tax would be the first time this has happened in the United States and that's coming up on their ballot in just a few.
weeks from now, so you know the one hand. That seems like a big advance, like maybe other stuff, follow, but that it also kind of feels like a so what of it either. It feels very different from, like you know, the trajectory of like affordable care act, for example, or Massachusetts, passes coverage expansion. Other people see it in like that's the thing we could benefit from it. It is very hard for me to see that there is no tangible outcome for the people of Washington State that they can feel there would be a quite tangible outcome if those scaled up to it international level, and it feels very genome. That seems like the one possible way. The thing move forward as an area that supportive of these policies- people you vote for them vote for politicians who support these kind of things, but it's like a lot of their technology. We're talking about. It also seems like something that suffers from from a scale problem like it's not going to be
I don't know- maybe maybe there's something about the politics in some ways. More disturbing place then, as or even made out to be in this Washington is telling because something that you ve had. Why do was once upon a time a kind of a leap, consensus right that something should be done about climate change and so you had these, like vague, adds with New Gingrich Nancy Policy Right jump. John Mccain had a climate plan right, so it was hazy and it wasn't going and where and then it turned out that, like when the pedal came to the metal they like conservatives were going into effect from this So something that happened is a secondary consequence of that is that the left, which has continued to push for addressing climate change, which is good, has completely subsumed the climate change issue under the like existing left agenda, and so like this
in state plan right it's a successor to a plain that went down in twenty sixteen and then what was proposed in twenty. Sixteen was when I think people consider like a technically sound climate policy, which was like a revenue neutral carbon tax, and I went down to catastrophic defeat. Progressive groups opposed the gray and will put this in China. It stay Roberts had a great big piece on the the sort of strange coalitions in number great, because what they want is this carbon tax to point o proposal, which does the carbon tax, but really just treats carbon tax as revenue policy? So now it finances a bunch of spending that a broad coalition of Washington state groups want and that's why I mean what I think that it may pass. It may not is doing better than the other one, given the politics of passion and state, which is obviously more liberal than the average american state, like that's a reasonable way to do it, and particularly, if Republicans one in two carbon pricing policy, no matter what you do then
I don't know what else it is you're going to do with it, but like that the strategy that, like even in principle, you can't take that strategy to Oklahoma right, like there aren't strong, progressive groups on the ground to have these big spending demands. And now you have Stephen Harper, former conservative Prime Minister of Canada he's criticising. The carbon pricing plan that just introduces put in and he's saying, like you know, you look what's happening. It's like the left just sees this as a revenue programme there they're trying to spend the money in, the. U S is a relative low tax society compared to the rest of the western world. So you don't we price carbon in just treated as extra revenue and an after the races is, I think, a perfectly reasonable idea for us, but it's not like a scalable global solution, it's just it's like Mary partisan Politics- and you see- and in so many other issues of this right so like Ezra, like that you're a vague in right and like a strong
however, in that an animal welfare grounds and so like very interested in the climate implicate, but I also believe in it and invite I mean you know I mean fewer, but many media can believe in something for multiple really have slowly can, but I mean I think, that what you have is that people who, like some of the policy employment second of come so like I'm into urbanism and mass transit. So I like to talk about that, but, like people who have conservative person lifestyles just expire we in this as a culture crises, right, that, like people who want to back to work and eat veggie burger these are like everyone should back to work and eat veggie burgers, but like they don't want to do that. It is, though, it were now not really talking in politics about I'm a change policy, we're talking about like how it is that you
he's like to live, but let me many other side to this case and not the other side, because what you're saying is true, but I have to attend on it. One is that again, like it. Wasn't the left that affected here right right Gingered defected, Mccain, ultimately defected like like there was a whole like the right made this a culture where issue long before the Euro. but the thing I mean, that's how I went right. It's like the right pulled out of the deal and innovation where we created this new problem. We're not a new problem, but I think, if we're going to get any action on climate change. It created this question, which is, if the left held power, would it prioritized climate change with that, be the thing it did as opposed to medical, for all or free college, or all these other things and envy a crucially- and I think that this is part of what I was writing about back and twenty fourteen very crucially, the hard part about climate change is the ways to solve at your asking people to absorb pain. Now too,
solve a problem that will mostly affect people in the future and even more than that people who don't live here, it is say before. I get a lot of emails that they will not affect people who live here or that its having no effect now. But this is an existential question for like a lot of cash trees and a lot of people. Poor people live in coastal areas and it is not an existential question for middle class oklahomans in twenty twenty five. So, like that's a very hard little problem, so what you need to do is you need to create things that create some kind of incentive. Debt prioritizes up the chain like there needs to be a reason. Europe, Carbon first, even though it's very difficult, arguably very on not just ugly. It's an unpopular thing to do, and I think so
interesting about whether go with this in Washington state. I think something anything but some things at your bring up here, but the way ties to other things, people want is it there needs to be in the politics. Some sugar ray like things get prioritized because have some pay off that is gonna. Allow you to maintain power in the next election if a carbon tax came the way the left decided it would pay for men care for all say like and it felt good about that and we just going to use the reconciliation builded do that if it got power and twenty twenty one, that would make sense right. if you had the coalition like it, it will not necessarily make a tunnel since the policy and in fact a little bit unstable, because I didn't ideally, you Urien carbon now, but it would pay for some of it for some amount of time like you can imagine something like that happening I think the reason this is important is that absent that by partisan, Spain, swear you're. Both sides have created a leap consensus that they're just gonna, like muscle through because
This is important and like sometimes a buckle system has to do things for are hard in. This way could be like an analogy to, This reduction, I'm deals which have had many of over the years, but they tend to work best. You know and when the parties come together on them but their pain on for some kind of, like hazy, future pay off in the options, that this is gonna have to be attached to vehicles that people going to prioritize more highly and so like while all the things are saying batter are true about this being a very second best approach to the politics. I do think it is better than the sort of alternative witches. This exists on the left as its own thing and pure pain, because, like a pure pain policy is not going to be the thing that a tenuous democratic majority does. First, it will just be. Thing. With the only talk about doing in an ever happens. I did the same time this it when you like mention this idea of. Let's say it's like a medicare for all financed by a carbon tax when I think of how
how poor housing, medical care for all is, and then you added like what is now a like. I think what you would see is like a partisan pay for doing a carbon tax, it just seems like the whole thing would be so incredibly vulnerable like I do godlike. Ideally, I kind of actually think back to the episode we had last week even talking about the future the judiciary and, like you, see that playing into decisions. that are going to be made in. I already would expect like if we had had a care for all that it be aggressively attacked in the courts at state level. in Congress, and then, if you have one that's financed by a carbon tax like it feels like you're, just setting both policies up for like Really swift, like attack like breaking down pretty in like a very rapid six. We can we take a break and then come back to this like. Basically, anyone listening to this right now, I'm willing to bet that you are you're dealing with stress, maybe there's a
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to be the voice of optimism. Here like. I think this is bad. I heard say earlier, and I think is really you want to think like what might happen. The one way in which I think this stuff is possible and again not likely right. Look if I were the political adviser, like not the policy adviser, but if I were like a hack political adviser to some President Somebody the rumours, Ike, let's dramatic air France meals like let's attached to a carbon tax, make no don't do that like among are things like another thing that makes us hard is that has very regionally disparate effects, and so both in the house and it there a lot of our representatives or legislators who might vote for, say Medicare for all, but not for carbon tax bright because they represent India like Joe Donnelly's like an easier Medicare for all voting is a carbon tax vote. I say that not specifically knowing Joe Donnelly's views on carbon taxes, but what I would also say is it: we exist in a slightly peculiar political time
where I think the traditional rules under which were talking about this are not as a public a ball or don't appear to be, as applicable as a prophecy happen. So what is it we are suggesting here that there is some level of tribalism that, like how to care for all will reach that you like can never go above and I'm not at all sure. That's true, like I think, like we're just maxim out every single time now, and so like the idea like layering, more things on. It makes it I'm? U they are very unpopular things on which may be, but a carbon plan is, but We were there like were like to do remember death panels a year member Obama collect the effort to do a compromise. I don't have that. You have heard of a fine ethic, interesting were there and then, everything that Republic Republicans a bigger, really pioneered issues like go fast. pass unpopular bills quickly, do with the reconciliation and like down the consequences and see what happens and I'm not sure it's a great site.
Did you like they're gonna lose in the mid term is, but you know the amount it looks like we're. Gonna loosen the mid terms is not historically unknown and like, but there's a good economies like they're like being kept afloat about by that, but I it's possible that we're moving into a period where the way we legislate is like you, too to get your site is excited as possible about the thing your building and you try to move as fast. possible, and you accept that big things are going to be unpopular again. I don't think this is great, like I don't think we're. The american political system is going is great, but I also don't think like unchecked. Global warming is great or like the current healthcare consensus is great, and so I dont know like I'm, not I'm not here to tell you. This is a good solution, or that like makes it on a sense to me, but I I do wonder about whether or not you know like they just past cabin awe and whose very unpopular tax reform bill is pulling in the thirties when they pay in the thirty six
that's while they tried to pass their Obamacare bill and it was pulling the twenties who sometimes pulling the teens So I don't know like if you could design something reasonably well that had like a not gigantic carbon tax and maybe its offer Medicare, for it may be that once a little bit too weird of a thing, but it's like a carbon tax that is funding for structural development and like kind of greenish obstacles. The green new deal exactly like. I don't think, that's crazy and I think, like a lot of people It would be really excited about it and, I think, like like you put it in even at a modest level, and the section will ignore asters won the Nobel Prize to Economics, not technically, no enough the wholesale, but if talking about how to do the carpet accession? If you started and MRS fight about his ideas cause, he would put a lower because he rates the future economic growth higher and
you put in it at a low rate. You could theoretically dial it up a little bit easier over time when you have the power to do so or when effects of climate change, for it we're getting worse and worse so like I agree like the Medicare for all. They may be to Jerry Rig, but I do think the idea that you're going to have to attach carbon pricing to something bit it instantly like sellable that people are excited about infrastructure, I think, being a berry. possible idea has like, then it doesn't look totally not like you could thinking about. How did we infrastructure environmentally sustainable way, and so like the smell of it, makes some sense? I think that the only possible way this happens I think it is important to come back to the international dimension of swearing, because it is both true that, like the most Dire consequences of climate change will not be in the United States, at least not mostly, and also true that, U S palace,
He is not going to be decisive in determining the future scope of emissions rights. So if you look at the United States and Europe, emissions are trending downward in both the USA and Europe. I mean not at a rapid, clear but like definitely downward cars are becoming more fuel efficient, renewable energies, growing natural gas is lower emissions and call, and so like reductions are happening. If you look at China Right, China has more co2 emissions, Now, then, the? U S in Europe combined and their emissions are still growing right. The growth rate has slowed in China. India is quite a bit lower than the. U S in Europe at this point, but their growing quite rapidly and so alternately. Like the question of ethical issues, climate policy is gonna have to involve code.
Nation between the big players and on that level, like? I think you have to say that, like the Paris agreement, just in war like it, didn't have enforcement mechanisms, it was very much built around a global consensus model that I think fundamentally doesn't Sense like, if you imagine worldwide action on climate happening right, it's gonna start with some big core players, right like say, Europe and Japan, agreeing to do domestic carbon pricing and then applying some kind of punishment on countries that don't write like a lost market access, which then gets like Taiwan and Norway and little or countries come aboard and
Of course, you would need like domestic policy in the United States to work and bring the developing countries along something like that, but even like, even when, like the best people were running things in the U S late, they were basically nowhere. This aspect of the problem, I do think it's important, remember Nord houses point about the benefits of economic growth rate, because if you described the state of the world as it existed in nineteen. Seventy eight as like this is what the world could be like forty years from now, right, like as a science fiction exercise, people find horrify generally like the millions, more people and extreme dire poverty like all kinds of awful awful stuff right, and that's because, like the past, forty years of global economic growth have like done a lot of really good things for the world.
right and in the future, were going to have all kinds of terrible problems because of piracy levels and change climate, but we are also going to have globally like many more resources to reward things and like a really morally urgent thing is to actually do something about some of these problems. Right, like I think, probably a hard nosed economic. Look at it like not have tried to give is gonna. Tell you that, like slowing the global economy in order to save a handful of Pacific Island Nations is not worth wing. But when you say it's not worth doing what you mean, It would be cheaper and easier to rescue those people right and what were on trajectory to do right now is not to like make a conscious choice to prioritize growth and use those resources in a helpful way, but just to be banned in people to their
fits right and, like that's, really bad and is a little bit separate from the carbon policy question. One thing I think this brings up is that it's something that I don't think we know how to model well, but Patel Account etiquette. It piece on anything. I've been thinking about a lot is There is a lot of political fragility that is down stream of displacement and I think a lesson I'm taking from the past couple of years. We have a global refugee crisis right now there are a lot of people were displaced and what that has done is destabilize the entirety of the European Union. It has very arguably destabilized America good argument that Donald Trump, given how close at victory was it. It reflects things that happened around Syria and refugee crises, and you know I think you are.
Both ways but but but I think, it's entirely possible. Certainly the immigration issues in the? U let breaks it, I think something we ve been seeing is that our political systems, that global political systems are not very robust to climate alot gold disturbances. Unlike what follows from them, not nothing that everything that has happened has been climate right. There is an argument about whether not Syria is driven by. Out and whether that drives driven by climate and- and I don't want to adjudicate it here- what I want to say that it is clear that things like that will be driven by climate in the future. like that is what we can say. Certainly, when you're looking at two and three degrees celsius warming- like you will have a lot of drought, you will have a lot of food shortage. You will have a lot of things in upheaval and our systems do not respond to a people quickly and what will happen if you of hundreds of millions
Bangladesh Bangladeshis displaced and is something that I think is a real question. When you're thinking about this economic growth projections and and and how to think about them is what are we going to do about instability That is something that we don't know how to manage. Well, it is something that, like we have trouble tracking back right. What ends up happening is it. You have a lot of stress on a system and then like a civil war breaks out and take the ward is not about drought, but it's about drought, its cause by drought, and that is one of the pieces of it that I really worry about, because I just to give to look round the global system and say that these things are weaker than we had right and you have to go back far to your point about the seventies right yeah go back forty before that in Europe. The world wars are so now, If you had a world war that involved China and Russia in America or a cup others I give Woloda nuclear weapons lying around, and so things could get bad end
This is something that I don't hear. People talk him accent. I know there is a good way to talk about it, but the when you look at how poorly our systems are responding to relatively modest levels, the instability and conflict right now, an elevator. I will say, emigration and displacement. If you imagine like turning all those dials weigh up, I don't think you should be super optimistic. I mean that that is a part of it. That really scares me, because that also apart, that has the possibility of run away. Consequences were, like things, begin escalating on top of himself, lives and we dont model that effectively wait. I mean, I think, especially Europe and India, given their job well he's right, there's some sense in which you could say: ok an option The amount of warming is probably to allow a little bit more warming and to let people from the Sahel Region of Africa Move to Canada, where there's plenty of space and where it would be nice if it was warmer
but then you think I like ok in the real world, but is that what's going to happen? Are we going to have tens of millions of african peasants? We settled in Canada and obviously that's not what's going to happen to going to try to cross the Mediterranean Sea and enter southern Europe, as this is very clear that citizens in Southern Europe also don't want that outcome is that they need to do something to get ahead of that and like Bangladesh. Refugees coming into into India with religious instability is, is another big big issue there and the United States, I think, is relatively insulated from a lot of these consequences. If the problem were that the United States was just being a laggard due to our combination of dysfunctional politics and relative insulation from the problems, I would say, the solution is that the international community needs to,
sanction. The United States, much more heavily I would striking, is that the countries that are more in the crosshairs are like also not really doing that. My trade, I would like the United States we weren't leader on climate, but honestly, like you, can see why we aren't, but like the countries. That should be the leaders need to lead more because somebody's gonna have to push us It's like you, and I know it's a lot of this is going to factory. Outside the United States, but I don't want the conversation to come off. As you know, the fact that we are totally insulated from this over some. I read a really interesting book called Chesapeake Requiem that looks at this island in the Chesapeake Bay that its assent, they disappearing in real time. That is just seen itself shrinking and shrinking and drinking at home to a lot of crap fishermen and diamond journalists. Earl swifter this really excellent book about basically what it is like to live in a place that has disappeared
One of the interesting things you kind of comes across there is that the politics of this place are actually quite conservative, that when you talk to people outlook, why is your island disappearing? It's more? This is just the natural way of the world like it's. Just something has been happening from before we talk about climate change, the politics deftly don't line up towards the type of things that might you know, reverse sea level rise there. It seems like this island just isn't going to exist in the future or so at this point, is home to a relatively small population of people but all this is just to say that this isn't it totally foreign thing like this is happening to people who live. In the United States and it seems like we ve, just kind of made this decision with laughter decision making of deciding that you know this island in the Chesapeake like it's not worth saving in people there, like they're, pretty getting angry that, like the government, is based, we decided their island is not worth saving.
but was regarding the idea of like the decision to not make a decision is such an important concept in politics. That is like we ve cited to make a decision not to make a decision. there is a decision and, like we'll pay the cost of it. I guess I got a very big premium. On top of that, way, I mean be clear when we say the United States is insulated relatively, and so we we mean that the people who live on that island aren't going to drown in die. Right like they are going to move someplace else like they are american citizens. They have that option to go there. This- is a large land mass. It has space for them now part of woods. Striking by this, you can say like what we decided not to do anything, but then we'd like a couple. Key tipping point moments wide so like the state of Florida, is very exposed to climate change in a way that most of the country
Is it because it's surrounded by water, it's very low? It has high water table its hit by a lot of hurricanes. Unlike for something to happen, these stakeholders, in a place like that, would have to be. all in on doing something, and for a time that states republican governor was interested in doing so on. Climate change, but he lost to send a primary tomorrow will be. He was driven out of the Republican Party he's now our house Democrat their current governor Rick. Scott is firmly opposed to doing anything at all. He's polling, very well against still Nelson. The state of far too has become more conservative over the past fifteen years and like Donald Trump, you know there was a lot of
talk about trumpet and the rust belt and white working class there, but in places like Florida that had a lot of non college, educated white people, even though the there was never an industrial base in Florida, but demographically alot of midwestern people, you don't have moved there. There was the same like big surge toward from voting, and you know I mean a basic problem in politics. Is that like, if the people most actually impacted by a negative trend are not only like they're, not gonna, be active in demanding a solution. They are going to be active in demanding that it not be solved. Like that's a tough one. You know you can look at the leadership that, like Jeff, murkily and Bernie Sanders have credible. I'd on climate change IPCC. But, like honestly, they're gonna do fine in right You know it's like one of the largest dimension of this, and this is true in the United States too, because only we should say like some. well here will drown and die right. We will
have more hurricanes and weep, sometimes, particularly in very poor areas, do not handle this hurricanes. Well, in Puerto Rico, I'm not gonna get into the kind of like another hurricane specifically, is climate change related, but like a lot of american citizens, Drownded died or died because of the aftermath of, like all of their electrical systems being destroyed and Climate change everywhere like globally. But Also in the U S, it hits the poor hardest and when we say there are a lot of people wouldn't want to do anything about it like. It is true that risk lives in Florida, but he will be fine, like you will be completely fine, cookies, Wretch alike. A lot of the decision makers on all sides of his Nike. This is true for a lot of different issues that they will be fine. The people are going to get hurt and the people in Tempe, Indeed, I are poorer and the like climate change like everything else like it comes for the poor. It's like bit in a million different ways. I think we are in a very immoral place on this issue, what they had this one, because other we have time to do today, but we will get emails about it
GEO Engineering is something we should do a future weeds on odyssey shortly like when I look into it. I am struck by how to imagine a political, a global political system that can make the decisions or on is to imagine global political system that probably is able to make the decisions decisions on climate change, but I often entertain the thought of it became cheap enough incapable, some countries going Rogan it if it really like, if they were really in trouble like you could imagine. There are big political tipping point in some countries where all the senator yelling MRS Ek, suspension out we're gonna do something in sick. Are we going to invade places to stop them from blasting sulphates into the air like this stuff would be pricey, I'm not sure it's actually doable, but I just like the thing on a flag for future too. and is that the GEO engineering solutions they do not solve the political power
bombs. They rely on solutions to the same political problems that the other solutions rely on and like. That is a thing that we are having trouble imagining as dear another break to a paper. People often ask me of prosecuting the mob, is like the movies well, There is violence, he cracks disguise over their head and pop. Just like a melon. There are heads, so wasn't just permission to take a nap permission to take out his own view but after taking down over one hundred mobsters, I can tell you this is the real thing is much more interesting. I'm barely holding former mob prosecutor and host of the new podcast up against a mom up against the mob the bail on the world's most secretive criminal organization, La Cosa Nostra, we'll talk to profit Peters, former mobsters, an undercover agents and and
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By me, Dave Shilling, add me Jonah re each we gonna show we blow our own minds and yours with galactic level. Take on those. I gazed ts, movie or tv show of the moment in we run those things by our favorite romanians and expert pals whither. Let us up or shut us now, tuna and followed council brains. I have a pike s or your favorite pot catch them So we got a health care paper. This week we have one the effect of Disan Roman from Medicaid Unemployment, insurance coverage, health and healthcare utilization hot off the b e r presses from Tom to at Georgetown. End to this is a paper that looks at this kind of natural experiment that how
and then Medicaid a little over a decade ago, that a number of other papers and looked at as well back in two thousand five Tennessee was for a while running a very generous Medicaid programme, whose allowing people actually all the way up to almost middling, Hum Tune Roland Medicaid program if they had been denied coverage outside the market turns out. This is, expensive. So in two thousand five, they decide to end this programme, and you can read this natural experiment So reticent this is well balanced and yet centre a democratic administration. They say, oh turns out the people whose for this programme have incredibly high health care needs. So a hundred seventy and adults are decent rolled from the Medicate programme and there's this question bout kind of what happens next along two dimensions. One, do these people get health insurance in to do these people get jobs because you can see you theories of it. You know, I think, there's the more conservative theory that well, if they dont of this wealth
our programme, they're gonna, go find a job that they'll start working as they want health insurance and then there You know the other possible outcome that these people are just out of luck, that their uninsured they weren't getting employment before Medicaid. That you weren't, seeing it as a kind of substitution of acts of New nuclear paper. It means that, after the Medicaid contraction in Tennessee, that you saw uninsured rates rise by five percent compared to adults and other southern states. They find no evidence of an increase in employment rates in Tennessee. Following that just involvement, in other words, people didn't feel the need to go get it. to get insurance, they just lost insurance so I should say I was reading the paper and I realized I do this. Is you in direct contrast to another paper that came out a few years ago about this Tennessee situation that was led by Craig Garthwaite, an economist at Northwestern, who I really respect and have talked to a number of times? So you know I talked to him about this paper before
being the show and is take on it- is that it really complicated right now, there is a policy question. That's very active of what happens when you kick up. adults off of of because a lot of states are thinking about kicking a lot of adults off of Medicaid end. It turns out where we can get into some of the new ones. Here we dont fully know at this point: there's Craigs Paper, which suggests that some people actually do get jobs that you do see somewhat of unemployment response. There's this new paper that suggest people don't Waddington jobs, the difference The two honestly relies a lot on their data source in their methods, which are a little bit different, but you know what I mean: to him in a city. I don't be cheeky, but the four. This is further evidence that this is all very complicated. So I have a couple thought on this path. They also resolved under its complicated, but two things one is
dead, remembering way back in time to two thousand and ten. When we are talking about the affordable characterwith, it would pass one of the pictures Republicans painted biscuit jobs like nightmare right. This was gonna, destroy the american economy like nobody, who's gonna. Work like this can be huge. Unemployment areas can be part of Our time labour to get out of the employer I mean like over and over and over again, like a lot of the case made against out, was jobs and listened to Donald Trump. Rightly there are a lot of jobs in the country. I know unemployment is very, very love for the first time ever we have it in the data more on job listings and job seekers, like whatever the effect of healthcare expansion to is on labour supply. It is like quite swamped by other things are happening in the labour markets, which are you sick is notable. So I think this is what the content the set of AIDS in this paper show is like the gothic result, seem big to me and the fact that their not robust like giving them different time Series
the same data, sad to or lake tweaking them in different ways doesn't mean they're, not true on some of those me there's, not a labour response. I just like its clearly. I think it's preclude not a big one and that's bestowed of where the lira comes down, but I want to know something else Cosette. was a debate. We had again backdoor unaffordable. Correct is irrational, but in office came out with this paper, showing that it would reduce labour supply in the recent would reduce labour supply is primarily people retire earlier without the need to work in order to get health care people might enjoy a little bit more of like the last chapter of their lives, not being an job they don't want to have, and I think we have such a discourse in this country that, like work, is always good. Like anything that increases the supply of work is good, and I think that reduces it is bad. Then I think that we have trouble talking about this, sometimes I mean there's a question about how much the date is looking a child us adults and how much isn't in like that's a complicated piece of this, but there are a lot of good reason
somebody may not want to work like you made. A single mother with a child when a special needs, or you may be, trying to go to school are. You may just ignore, have found the correct job and like having been laid off something you want to wait to find a good FED as opposed to take something way below were now beyond this lower ladder track and not to say that, like, we should not in general, be trying to increase labour supply, but we should not be heedlessly trying to do it and using not having access to medical care as the tool with which we do. It seems to me to be incredibly cruel. I mean like we could set up a policy where, if you didn't work with
your children in jail, and that would definitely increasingly incentives, people felt a god and find jobs like that would be about public. Who should do that? Have I am. I am I a triple down on this point, because nobody does it mean these very policy relevant right, because if you look at the medicate waivers that are coming down, the Pike frown republican governors. If you look at the changes to snap that congressional Republicans will enact, I think if they do well in the mid term, and if you look at what's her name, Sir, the merry may here Mary may hear whose who's coming in to run federal Medicaid. For me- and this is a bit
just Roquat main case, like people think of mainly figures. His cause has had on Paul. A page fer to terms now is an extremely trompe governor who is refusing to expand Medicaid, despite about it, but a downright illegal are like I'm going much further than that, unlike has like made like their social security net into like a right wing, wonderland of like just unbelievable greatly. So there are a lot of individual pieces to this weapon there is an emergent world view in the american conservative movement that a big problem in the United States is that our labour force participation rate is too low and that the solution to that problem is to make the welfare state less generous right, and this is a poor idea like if you want to make it
argument that you as Labour force participation rate is too low. I think a pretty good you know stab at that argument will be to say look I'll. Enforced participation rate is lower than what you see in Canada, Australia, its lower than when you see Japan, Korea and is lower than what you see in Northern Europe right. So, ok, that's good primer! They show evidence that there's something wrong here. Do you make of us is not more generous than whoever in any of those place, sway. No, it's not to say this problem. I e b, some level of like a misery racial in that we could drive people to that. I'll get our numbers up to like Sweden, Denmark levels, but that's obviously not how they did it in Sweden and Denmark is pretty clear, did in Sweden, Denmark, which is that by providing more robust child care services and put more women at work here, I am even more constructively delivers. Like a little bit more generous than America's, but not that different, but they have ran for the past five years. Very strong macro economic conditions
and this also showing you seem in the? U s that, like three four years ago, there were like all kinds: it takes about like wise labour force participation down, but just like keeping interest rates, low and growing the economy has brought it like a lot right and in a weird way. You know, if Obama was President Republicans when you want to hear this, but like now the Donald Trump is present. It's like you could just like take of victory. Lap like strong economic conditions cause more people to want to go out and get jobs in London, we ve seen as there were sitting Annabelle moral panic about the disability Insurance programme, and disability insurance. Enrollment has fallen a lot over the past four years without any of these proposed reforms being implemented because, as its become harder for places to hire, workers has been
easier for workers who have some kind of border line physical incapacity to find either a job that suitable to them or employer whose willing to accommodate them is raised the cost of discrimination so so and so forth, and so it is even if it's true that, like making Tennessee like a land of no health insurance would boost employment marginally. Like this, this don't big picture reason to think this is a good idea and I think tugging Craig as the author of the paper that deadline and employment that weren't things he like home with me, which is often something here from economies is using. No one looked at our confidence intervals. They were giant on that paper which But you said you, everyone focused on this point as to men, and one of the things we are saying there is hideously will maybe on the radio talk about confidence as in another roles, and here we are talking about- is that even there you know he's the guy. You found this and he still says you look it's complicated. It's different, depending on
humanitarian aid and I think, one of the things you know that is really difficult- is that the effects are really had our genius that people respond to losing Medicaid very very differently depending on the city. which, in that they are, as you know, someone who has some kind of expensive healthcare condition, someone who has kids, for example. is probably going to respond very, very differently to losing their Medicaid than you know. A single adult daddy. These are kind of often can be broad brush policy interventions that led to very different outcomes, and that's when there is so hard to study is that people have a lot of unobserved served unrecorded ball preferences around health insurance that it is hard to get
that granular level, given the data, sets that we have anything? That's why you see either these different people studying the exact same moment in the history of Tennessee Medicaid in coming to some different conclusions about like what that actually meant for medicate recipients. The other lesson here, those specific to Tennessee, is about the fragility of trying to design programmes that take care of people who fall through the cracks without like doing anything about where the cracks come from, because a basically think the reason they did this in Tennessee.
As if they were spending way too much money because they taken on the hard cases right and it's the kind of thing that like it, must have sounded like a good idea. Rightly we're gonna help the people who need help, but we're not going to disrupt things for other people, and it wound up not really working great. Unlike that's what has, always been the impetus for like real universalism that, like yes, the like surface level, price tab is high, but the per person price tab is reasonable, which is like not the situation that they had in see and like I don't know it's a bull, is Medicaid. Contraction seems to me like, like a bit of a human tragedy, but also like they didn't have really good alternatives are right, not swedes.
Fantastic. Ok, thanks to Israel and Sarah thanks. You, everybody for listening, come into the weeds Facebook Group and tell us about your face. a engineering ideas, so we can talk about that in future episode. The weeds we'll be back tomorrow with a mid term special and then again on Friday, thanks of course, to our producer Griffin, Tanner, we'll see you tomorrow
Transcript generated on 2021-09-11.