Dara, Jane, and Matt on Biden’s excitement gap.
"So … About That Supposed Lack Of Enthusiasm For Biden?" Five Thirty Eight
"Social conservatives feel betrayed by the Supreme Court — and the GOP that appointed it" by Jane Coaston, Vox
"Trump’s surprising resilience with Hispanic voters, explained" by Matthew Yglesias, Vox
Matt Yglesias (@mattyglesias), Senior Correspondent, Vox
Jane Coaston (@cjane87), Senior politics correspondent, Vox
Dara Lind (@DLind), Immigration reporter, ProPublicaCredits:
Jeff Geld, (@jeff_geld), Editor and Producer
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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hello. Welcome to another episode of the weeds on the box media podcast network, as Glacius here with Jane Costin, Propublica Saralyn, and we were going to talk today about enthusiast because, as Donald Trump has lagged in the polls fairly substantially, this has come to be sort of something he hung his hat on,
campaign put out a memo ass, showing which, if it is true that there is more trump enthusiasm detectable the pause, then there is for by saying that the candidate with the more enthusiasm
almost always wins. Admittedly like the exam
to that rule with a view to go all the way back in time to the twenty twelve election divide case right, the less enthusiastic, getting winning, I ever relocated to to coastal me in which vary
excitedly is a swing area is a county that voted for Barack Obama twice, but voted for Trump in twenty and sixteen Joe Biden's hoping to win it back. It is
not true that, like a nontrivial number of people out here, have Donald Trump side
in their own or trump bumper stickers.
And you see some like old Hilary ages or some Bernie stuff from different errors, but like this now, this no binding
around. We were talking about twitter and that the K hive earlier
There are no real. Are no Biden stands on twitter but, like it's two people right, I
I generally walking around DC. I saw a car where the entire back of the car was just Joe Biden, stickers and Joe Mental stickers, and my first conclusion is that, as the person who works for the Biden campaign but Matt, I want to go and you could you wrote a really interesting piece on the enthusiasm gap with looked deal voters, but we should start first and foremost by talking a little bit. It seems obvious to ask this question, but why is enthusiasm and important, metric and enthusiastic vote in an unenthusiastic vote still count? The same way
and looking back at twenty twelve, which I think is actually an interesting comparison point because the twenty twelve election was one in which Obama's like okay, so things did not go quite as planned, but you still had the
idea of Obama, and I think that what you're seeing from the Trump campaign now is kind of the idea of two thousand and sixteen trump, which has led to the Trump campaign, basically pretending that Joe Biden is currently president, which has been interesting but Matt. Could you explain a little bit more about? Why does enthusiast matter politically? Yeah I mean well, one possibility is that it doesn't matter right, which is, I think that that's my view. I've started to take, but I just think there's a couple of areas where it could make
at her in fear. And the question is: will it matter in practice right one? Is that there's a ladder of political engagement of which voting
he is sort of the lowest run by
donating money to a campaign is another wrong. Volunteering for a campaign is pro
we even higher rod. I'm doing things like the as far as we can tell things like public displays of support, do have some electoral impact. So it's like
the signs are both an indicator of enthusiasm, but also themselves have some kind of impact, and then I think
You know what, when I was looking at at at sort of that the Lehtinen like Red, although other blow propensity voting groups it matters, because this second adage in like fright that enthusiasm is contagious.
Right, and so, like one question is always like: why does anyone ever vote for any right because, like yes, its importance and like civics and Bobby Barack Obama, but the odds that your vote will matter are so infinitesimal? Most states like aren't even swing states. It's! It's not a super duper rational, calculus and consequently, like tons of people, don't vote my getting around half of people too big
a vote. But for those of us who do it's, like you vote either out of some basic habit like I always well, I'm a supermarket
but the people who only sometimes vote. I think
it's very plausible that
what they're more politically engaged friends are
saying and doing and signalling is itself relevant right? So it's like
I am voting dutifully, then somebody who is
less due to fall is likely to not vote at all. Where is it
Like enthusiastic I'm talking to my friends all the time that our great this is I'm share.
All the means. I'm wearing the t shirt rightly that bill
more sort of like you, ve gotta. Do this you ve gotta go. Can I get on the bandwagon and get a binding is not as far as we can tell. I mean he's out of financial
disadvantage to tramp, but he's fund raising his good right
and a lot of democratic Senate candidates are doing well. So I think the most concrete sense, like democratic, probably get a brush this off, because that's where you would a candid campaigns liked her,
the money. They would be upset writing
You were leading in the polls, but somehow couldn't raising funds at all. You would work
you bet, your lead is gonna, go away because you get buried and attack ads, and that doesn't seem to be like up approximate issue with them, and I think that there is also the very relevant
the fact that this is not going to be a normal election, because normal elections don't happen during pandemics. Like we,
know what the state of over nineteen is
to be in early November. But given that a even as of a month or six weeks ago, there was
sir, that a summer well would be followed by a few know, would like a second wave and fall and be the fact that
we don't have the summer lull in much of the s. This is an election. That's going to have you know more people worry about going.
Led to the polls and waiting in line. Then most of them have in its entirety.
That's going to have you know, we've already seen in,
cases bipartisan in some cases, only pushed by Democrats efforts to radically expand voting by mail to me,
get in or to expand access to voting, alternatively, to just showing up on election day, and in that case it actually makes sense
enthusiasm, might matter a little more because you're raising the activation barrier to voting. If you're going to vote by male you're going to have to request a email imbalance in advance or requesting absentee ballot, those are hard things
are that require a little more for thought and a little more prior commitment to do
like waiting and seeing how you feel on election day, so it wouldn't
Surprise me at all. If a I mean that's going to be a bigger,
problem for lower
voting groups and for the candidates that rely on them? But it wouldn't surprise me at all: if a partition
Early motivated electorate is going to be more likely to request to those mail in ballots in advance. The other complicating factor here, of course, is that taking mitigation
efforts against covered nineteen at both the political and personal level has become super politicize, and so we are
seeing and an inner kind of isolated evidence of Republicans being much less likely to request.
And use mail in ballots than Democrats are so where I kind of
up against the enthusiasm question here is yeah Donald Trump. Has voters who would it out there is like this quote.
The Trump representative gave a reporter in one of the wave of articles about in a wide trumpets about from privately
am very concerned about is falling over thing you know. Are our base? Would walk through fire for
tromp, no one would walk through fire for Joe Biden like that is true. You know whether they will take personal risks in the midst of a pandemic. To vote for Donald Trump is less clear.
And whether they are going to do the most likely the thing that is easier to do to avoid the of the health risk, while still voting, because there
been turned into a ripe for voter fraud.
Only democrats do it. Tactic is also unclear, so I
white back a little bit too. It was funny were reading this piece because it feels like it was written six zero years ago, but it was written in the first week of March by five hundred and thirty, eight talking about the enthusiasm gap for Biden and in comparison to Bernie Sanders. The people who voted for,
Bernie Sanders were overwhelmingly enthusiastic for Bernie Sanders, but not enough people voted for Bernie Sanders. So I'm interested in this question because darn mentions it were doing this,
in the midst of a pandemic. What were also doing something that I am interested to see what you guys think about this, because I
number two thousand for I was in. I was in high school and I remember that that campaign carries campaign was somewhat,
or John Kerry, but largely against Bush and the ensues
as some numbers that we're seeing right now are people being extremely enthusiastic to vote against Donald Trump. But I'm interested to know and to see what what data we have on. We ve talked a lot about negative polarization and kind of it if there is such a term for negative enthusiasm, but I'd be interested thing you as trumps
numbers go down and ass trump tat seems to be overwhelmingly focused on not just his base, but like the basest elements of his based the basic like none at all. We don't really care that much about infrastructure week were very mad about statues, which appears to be mostly a very online based, but I'm interested in that kind of the
negative enthusiasm and what role that could potentially planned November gaming. Obviously like there's tremendous antipathy to Donald Trump bright like unprecedented, and we ve had George Ford protests and and
this matter marches. But a couple of years ago we had desired by national women's March Xray edge. You know I don't want to say that there was not a content to the marches, but I think that those were really best understood as like pure anti trump kind of mobilization, and it was tremendous enthusiasm
For that exercise, its right, like incredibly large numbers of people, came out and wanted to go. Do that it? What is it we're not spurred by like super specific issue, is or or new
the advance twenty tee and had historic, mid term turn out for Democrats, you seem incredible levels of small donor mobilization, all up and
a ballot. It's like there is a real anti trump political mobilization that has been happening for years, something the Trump Campaigns memo. Actually, let me
think about for the first time is like they were saying. Ok, the kid
The more enthusiasm has one every time, except in twenty twelve. So if you didn't break down, that means in two thousand
Al Gore got more votes, but he lost enthusiasm
Two thousand and four Bush one votes and enthusiasm doesn't
Obama one votes and enthusiasm
Obama got more backwards, but had less enthusiasm in twenty
seen Hilary got more votes but have less enthusiasm.
And not just sort of starts. As you might pattern where there is structurally less enthusiasm for Democrats
the even even when more people prefer them, which might
be a sort of straightforward consequence of the coalition being born diverse and it's like it. It's hot
or to be inspiring to all different segments of the Democratic Party coalition simultaneously
and the only person who like ever did that was Brok Obama, who work in one of his two writs. It's not like all the time right and even stop being a good public speaker or like a charismatic person or the historic first black,
President, but it was like that very special nexus of circumstances
which was special like I were, I remember in DC election night, you know I went out of my house all the like young White general fire people,
street were out partying, as were all of the african Americans of all ages, who it was a blacker, neighborhood neighbourhood at that time,
and it was great, was like all kinds of Democrats we'd like so fucking, happy about Barack Obama
but that's really weird kind of circumstances. Where's Republicans, if like if you got like some white guy and he wins
like Republicans, are really excited about that, and I just don't know if I Democrats can can doing that it. Can you be all things to all people in like a self consciously
first political party! This is also relevant, because Republicans are the party that you know as a bit like, certainly in the pre trump era.
Was relying less on those kind of intermediate levels of it.
Valve meant to motivate other people like the Greek
Game has always been as, as has in recent memory, been more important for Democrats than for Republicans, because
dealing with again a more diverse coalition, a coalition that involve that includes
lower propensity voting groups like latino voters.
Young voters and having be bodies to execute that ground game
depends on having people who are enthusiastic enough. That they're going to like take me
then be our
several hours depending on where you live, that it takes to vote. So it's not super
me why republican enthusiasm on them,
virgin has meant you know in a pre two thousand and sixteen worlds. That said, one of the truths of you know the twenty sixteen election is that Donald Trump managed to turn out low propensity white villager, and it is true
There are people who probably wouldn't be motivated to vote, who are going to do
motivated to vote, because Donald Trump is on the ballot. Whether there is anything that can be done to act
them. More is really unclear, and this is where the Trump campaigns strategy to kind of keep that base as angry as possible, starts to run into some some math problems, because, yes, you can
you that, but if you ve already gotten them is fired up as they are going to get, and I haven't seen any argument that there are just disaffected from voters who can be reactivated by this culture were stuff, then the question becomes
how many people are you assuming aren't going to show up just because they don't love Joe Biden? How much is this actually, assuming that there's going to be other kinds of suppression involved that is going to be,
harder for voters and heavily black areas devote than it is for white voters. Because of you. No state restrictions on went on pulling play
says end and voting hours? How much are you assuming that your people are just going to be less turn?
off by the corona virus. Then democratic voters are like
There do seem to be a lot of assumptions about eleven
they behaviour that aren't just about in fees.
Yes M bitter about all of the other factors that we think about when we talk about turn out like if yours, there essentially bedding that every
happens up to and including it's raining on election day, because we know that that suppresses
out among low propensity voter blocks and I'm not superstore vit. All of those assumptions can
world, which is again why it kind of raises the question of. Are you actually just assuming that states will do more?
to limit and suppress voting. One thing that you mentioned
what you said, you haven't seen evidence of like a disaffected trump voter blind
out there and they enable Jean, like you done some some pizza ass, a kind of social concerns.
Grumbling about John Roberts. Many guessed right trump is one of the grumbler is so Ray
we are aware that disaffection lies but like what? What do you want? It's important to recognise that what we're talking about Trump voters that there's kind of thee
I put it as there are truck voters who, like bought the album and there are trapped voters who bought the album and follow the mentor, follow him on tour ledges literally true. There are people who follow Trump rallies across the country or did before the pandemic. It like there are like the true fans or stance as it may be, and those are desert different groups of people, and so I am when I'm too,
about the disaffected trump voter. I am not referring to the people who are like super hard.
Who are all at our now? No, no, no more! That's not that many people and at us,
not enough to win a presidential election with, but what I
have the conversations I've had there have been Trump has a chance
job in many ways, which is that the we don't think about it. This much but the Jew pretences alot wider than we think it is an as yet. The democratic tent has also widened with people who feels if they ve been pushed out of the Republican Party by Trump, but Trump has brought in a bunch of people into republican Party politics, who probably never thought of themselves as being quoting quote conservative before, and so what we are seeing now is that a lot of social conservatives were very focused on Supreme Court, which is run. I wrote about most recently are very disappointed because D, you and it's not just trump its thirty years of essentially being told that if you
both for these people. We will nominate these judges have been approved by these can survive. Organizations at ipso facto eventually will overturn. Rovers is weighed and other abortion precedents it before the Supreme Court and you'll bring social conservatives back to the halls of power conceivably, and that hasn't happened. And so I think that there is a sense among some social conservatives, of a great disappointment with the entire plan on which the social conservative political project has rested. But what that has to do with Trump is that Trump in twenty? Sixteen in response to TED crews, who essentially argued repeatedly that truck couldn't be trusted with the votes of social conservatives and might even nominate his sister to the Supreme Court.
The truck made the Supreme Court a big part of his twenty sixteen pitch, but if the Supreme Court doesn't quota could show up for social, conservative voters, I talk to some people like what's the point, why would we even vote they likely Stillwell this? The group that of very consistent voting block? But I think that that gets to one of the things about politics is that it is inherently transactional. You vote for something with the hope that someone will do the thing that you want them to do and for some truck voters who voted for him for various reasons, a lot of those trends
actions have been said, not paid, and so I think that what you are saying is that there are among the people who voted for Trop, not because they thought tromp was the coolest must awesome person in the history of collective time, but for the people who really are very concerned about industrial policy. I am concerned about Fetnah
I'm worried about immigration. There is an obvious. It has been a lot. That's happened that the truck demonstration has done on all of those matters for good or for ill. But if you voted on this specific things and you were promised something, and that didn't happen, it's not that you're gonna go vote for Joe Biden. It's that you might not vote at all, and so I think that it is a challenging issue, because I think that disaffection is sometimes hard to read in the voting,
I believe, because disaffected voters might still vote. I talk to some people who were saying you our vote down ballot, but I'll leave the top part blank you I won't. I won't choose between Trump and binding than any one else. I just want boat for president's, or these are people who used to give a ton of money to court.
For growth or a number of right wing organizations, and they aren't doing that anymore or it looks like you. I used to have bumper stickers on my car for this, and I don't anymore
and so all of that may not be obvious in what actually happens,
election day in November or afterwards with all the mail about, but it
show us shifts. Yet when you have, a presidential campaign that were supposed to out is again focusing on Supreme Court. In your hearing from some social conservatives, we ve been focused on the Supreme Court for thirty five forty years, and what does that gotten us? In their view? I think that that pose is somewhat of a challenge. So my question about this is always
given what we saw in twenty sixteen and the total failure of elite conservatives to direct the party to choose a nominee who is satisfactory to elite conservatives at that time? Lake? What's the kind of I find myself asking a them and what army question about any conservative constituents
That, like appears to be overrepresented among elite commentators and not have an identifiable voting block right like I am genuinely. I think that it is absolutely plausible that the people who have
who were fans of pudding. Conservative judges on the court before it was cool and who have tried to make their peace with Trump. By saying, but
judges and are now realising that John Roberts is less enthusiastic about,
turning Roby Wade than they hoped he would be, that they might be
haven't you know that they may not vote for Trump in, but a very few of them
like the kind of Ex Republic in Lincoln Project types. The bill crystal types are saying: I'm
owing to vote for Joe Biden, because its extremely
and we're going to get this man out of office and its link not entirely clear how many of them there
so we're talking about people who are a
not having as like they're they're, only having half the impact, because there are not vote
four trumpet they're not voting for by neither and also
you don't know how many of them there were to begin with. I do have real questions about like is this just professional conservative
showing again that they do not actually drive the bus that from his driving the bus- and I mean the for later-
point about that, is, I just feel like the kind of people who follow Supreme Court cases,
and know who appointed, which justices and like how
This all wins together. Those are exactly the kind of people were. You say, like an unenthusiastic vote, counts as much as an enthusiastic vote and that, like that's the margin
they are really on is the like. Oh my god, this is great, or is it alike
we got to do what we can, because that Rbg vacancy is coming up right, whereas the different margin is like the know, sporadic
voter straight and when people in their community are excited about something rightly clearly Donald Trump pride like the Trump movement of twenty six tee and felt to a certain
event of the population. I think primarily, rural whites
hadn't gone to college and who were in very religious right that they were bunch of people in that demographic. Who previous,
we had seen american politics as not engaging them right.
A kind of a war between woke me
Did he liberals and these, like churches southerners,
and they were like. I don't know man like they just don't get it, and then Donald Trump came on and a lot of people who fit that description were like. Yes, this is for me now. Republican party policy
like, like people, have hats hats going
build a wall rightward
a b by organist sticking to the feminists, but not real begin a church right, Retina Donald Trump, be kind of way,
and so they were like there were people who really like that got engaged in in american politics, something that was relevant to them.
But that's just doesn't strike me as like the kind of people who care
about John Roberts is right exactly that was something I in my piece on sulphur conservatives in the court. I talked about how there is even describing this debate seems strange, but there was an article in a concerted Valla called the american conservative that described the website, only fans which is widely used by adult film performers and DE author made. The argument of like this makes me wish that we had essentially a like islamic regime in this country to make the stop happening,
in response to an adult film at first wrote an opinion piece in the federal describing her own conservative conservatism as like Sexton Rock n Roll Republicans eyes you. We don't really care much about these specific ins and outs of social conservatism and all of these Christians trying to push us out of this kind
make us mad but yo. We love God and we love drinking and we love listening to rap music and complaining about Nancy policy. And this we all support Donald Trump and your when you're trying to you how dare use talk about them
millions of Republicans who enjoy we're not gonna, be poor and actresses for twelve. Yes, yes, yes,
but I made the point that essentially, if you have a tent that is supposed to include social conservatives,
to ban pornography at are asking the attorney general to get gear, backup obscenity prosecutions, and then you also have an
dont film actress named brandy, love who is talking about how, like you, cannot ignore my fans, you can't talk about it
I don't know how you get all these people together and clearly one of these groups of people cares a lot about the Supreme Court and thanks a lot about Amy call me bear it and takes a lot about like how Neil Gorse, which may have betrayed the conservative movement and the other group, absolutely
not, and somehow the Republican Party is supposed to make both of these groups happy, which they attempted to do so with culture.
Worrying that doesn't require any one to do anything. There's a great piece Matthew Walter wrote about the new social conservatism. That is essentially like you. If you have somebody just as I love the flag and the meat you move,
It has gone too far that isn't asking anyone to do anything, so the Republican Party responds with that and with tax cuts, and so I think that the
is a challenging line to walk in the Republican Party has just decided not to say that this gets back to the enthusiasm Billy the question of whether enthusiasm matters because you have just described a constituency that is all fired up.
In that light and has no where to go right, like that, nothing is being asked of them because they are fired up and like
Arguably, maybe that is the secret sauce here. Maybe it's much easier to express enthusiasm.
A pollster when you know that enthusiasm is just a matter of like being
angry on the internet and not like oh, let's see, am I committed enough to this.
That is to go. You know, too, to spend some hours phone banking. I'm not! Therefore, I am going to say I'm not that enthusiastic, but because of the fan issues of the kind of Trump Constituency, it is not surprising
that thereat Super high enthusiasm levels but lake, there was a lot of discussion in the first term of the Obama administration, of whether they
build the old, be political infrastructure that could turn the twenty await coalition into a durable democratic coalition and the conclusion both in terms of like India,
visual. I know, organizing for America kind of organisations that we're supposed to be that infrastructure and in terms of the broader political project, was that that did not work. That, like
As Matt was saying earlier in the episode there was some kind of alchemy in Obama as a candidate that you can't replicate with really good party organization or the Third Party organization. Just wasn't that good. There hasn't been a lot of discussion of
is the Donald from campaign campaign for twenty twenty trying to build something durable
or are they relying on or are they assuming that their candidate has the same kind of alchemy and like if they do assume that it's the same kind of alchemy? That's not just about the people who are
super all in for the president. Now that is about be, you know again that's about turning out every single person in Florida,
voted for your did last time.
Even the ones who are like
you're and concerned and telling pollsters they are concerned about the corona virus, even as they say that
likely going to vote for Donald Trump, like it's a very freaky thing to do with a very dirty needle to thread, and I'm not. I think that the Trump campaign you know could be doing it go at like I'm, not obviously like they have their theory of the case,
But it seems plausible that if you ask more of some of these big fans like if you ask them to encourage others to vote by mail, if you ask them to like to phone bank for
two to go out there on election day like drive. People to the polls in that kind of thing
probably be willing to do it, but the disinterested running away,
conventional campaign is appears to be so deep in Trump world just because they did it. Okay, ones that it's not
You know I'm kind of I'm wondering if there are centrally leaving enthusiasm on the table by not mobilizing at which we desperately need to take a break AMS, the let's. Let's do that and then I went up to his fannicot weird.
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back when somebody is running. Seventy eight point stronger than Hillary Clinton. He is generally running stronger with all kinds of people here,
being a stronger with with white people he's running
even with african Americans, because there's only so low, you can go there by reverse
sort of small gains that trumpet made with african american men binds join better with old people, he's doing better with women he's doing better men up is he's doing, maybe even with Latinos probably works, then Hillary Clinton did in twenty sixteen.
It is very controversial, subject in the appalling community as to specify exactly what the twenty sixteen election results are. But suffice it to say it.
That's what it hinges on there's one baseline according to which by is currently doing flat with Hillary, even if he does better with everyone else
there's another baseline opening when she's actually lost ground, and it's strange because you know em Trump has. Obviously
I expressed a lot of enthusiasm for latina country
to the american
cultural melange and also unlikely
african Americans. I hear he's been this somewhat hilarious, like Trump black Outreach at throughout the course of his presidency, which has been offset by a lot of sort of fairly over
racism, but it's clearly a thing that they have done here, is the
really been no like now. Donald Trump is good
to show like Mexican.
Again or porter weekends or any group of people other than at cuban emigres that he cares about.
You at all, even unwell and emigres sort gets ok
writing related related kind of kind of issue. They want you dil
to the appalling, though I mean it's, it's a bra
This phenomenon is not of Florida, specific sort of thing we there's been a little bit of out of a trump pomp, and some of it comes from the fact that, for at least as the at that
I'm the polling was done. There was less concern about the pandemic. Among his banks in the world,
white voters, I think more.
The people I spoke to just expected that that would change as the locusts of the outbreak move to Texas, Arizona in California,
You know, which is part of that kind of thing where you just have to follow up. Buddy was peered with affected
just very low levels of like awareness of Joe Biden, who is
not exactly an unknown figure on the national state or like a fresh face who we desperately need introduction to, but for people who is a very working class demographic, it's a demographic that has some people who are not.
Super fluent in English and has generally had lower levels of attention to american political news than white or black people, and the thing everybody said wishes
people do not have Latinos, did not have a strong impression of Joe by so it's
that and enthusiasm, but
so not alike, specific lack of enthusiasm,
me is like a genuine lack of enthusiasm. Like they heard, he was,
Guy who wasn't Donald Trump who's to say, wait. I need any left. A lot
posters concerned that bind is
going to be defined very much by negative advertising about here
Because we're not getting a like persists. It becomes
bite me is so well known, like notion,
well known people,
doing stories like cover story like
supper. Joe Biden right like it seems
a boring assignment, he's not being like introduced to the public,
in some exciting way. Up the something interesting about the like old white former vice president, become
the Democratic Party nominee, nobody
I'll. Give you a bit like Donald Trump, any given
Twenty four hour period, that is not about Donald Trump, is met with an effort to make the next twenty four hour period about Donald Trump like it it's
just that Joe Biden is like
with well known and kind of vanilla as a brand. It's that Donald Trump is doing a very successful.
Five year running effort to make everything about him
attention in a slightly odd way
it was interesting to me, because I am absolutely a hundred percent part of the like political media problem here. Where's like
like Joe Biden has been a Nashville political figure, literally my entire life
so the idea that people need more information about him, which does not have occurred to me. But of course, lots of people don't pay that much attention to politics
and, like yes, he's an important politician this whole time, but he's never been the focus of attention
including now what is likely to become presently met states dislike not that much talk about Joe Biden.
Like who he is and what he might do it isn't. What are they ve been odd situation, its challenging, because what this ultimately means for November, we don't know
And I am fascinated that yet all of this all this conversation about enthusiasm, this conversation about how people are defined its particularly challenging, because I think that we ve seen from Trump that his play is I'm going to go
you're just my voters, and not even my voters and twenty sixteen, the people who are enthusiastic about me right now in this present,
went and everyone else
deal with that, and I think that the buyer
campaign has a challenge because, as Matt put it, how do you define someone who is largely defined for many voters, but not for the
Do you want to go after, but you don't want to get into a entirely new conversation about through this person is, but you kind of have to so that Detroit campaign doesn't redefine him, and I don't know it just at such a challenge
question to ask ask like how do you reach out to new voters, keep your
voters and keep the opposition at bay all at the same time, especially
As I am familiar with the idea of you can't negative,
essential doesn't work, you can't get people to the poles solely based on, let's beat the other guy like. I am familiar with that being a truism of politics because of be looking o vote over the last like ten fifteen years. Rightly, there is so much evidence of posters and let you know, activists,
calling out the Democratic Party for trying to mobilize Latinos, not by promising
them them things by saying saying. Don't want
the other guy to it and then like Latinos, don't turn out like twenty fourteen Senate races.
Pretty good example of this there it it's just the? U dont
The other guy message is not got. We know for sure that it's not going to work with this particular group of voters, unlike its entry,
to me that a lot
the argument for by
kind of among people
within like democratic elite circles, was he's a known and familiar figure he's not gonna need reintroduction, you know he's, he can't let Trump won't be able to define him and, like there is evidence,
that, for whatever reason, gee, I wonder, Donald Trump- has not been as able to you know it
Label Biden, as he was Hilary, ah,
in the eyes of the public, even though Hillary Clinton was also, of course, it well established political figure so
There is a way in which that's working, but the fact
that there are now in countering this issue with Latino. Voters makes me wonder why that didn't come up
in the kind of informal vetting process that was like democratic discourse about the primary
Like why wasn't anyone thinking about this? A few steps in advance? I did, I just think it worth thinking about it. You know- and it's like
These Sanders really cleaned up in primary split with Latinos for for various,
reasons, but like one reason, is that he spent a lot of money on that project, which
out did not be that well optimized to the goal of becoming the nominee, which is like one reason: people don't necessarily do it all the time
why? I think the point about negative mobilization and that sort of barrier for Democrats with that demographic group is interesting, because it's probably not true that it doesn't work like at all
rightly did was clearly among the precincts
bourbon women caught him quote is used a lot to describe this demographic, but I bet, I think, that's imprecise right, but there is a cohort of
sort of college educated women for professionals up mostly
who were close away
mostly, why? Because of the educational and yet
his profile, Mercedes, but wait cool
very negatively mobilized by Donald Trump in the twenty. Eight even terms was really noticeable. Women candidates did way better in democratic Party primary use than they had done before. There was a huge amount of campaign countrymen
she's, coming from women right and then there was a clear negative mobilization sweetly
Story existed in people's minds
whereby the rejection of damp tromp was an affirmation for themselves
sprightly in a way that positive voting sometimes is for people and like
so you can form political identities around negativity? It's just that, like what Democrats have tried to do with Hispanics has not succeed
he did at that one thing that I was very struck by when I wrote a piece:
years ago, is looking at pulling on. Do you think
diversity makes America like better and among white people who identify. As liberals. That's like off the charts
right, like it really constitutive element of liberal identity for white people
just not that many wiping but like if you were white- and you I did if it's a liberal saying that diversity is an affirmative good- is like really really big for Hispanics. That's not at all.
The case right like that, the numbers on that are not super. High
the winning the white liberals think about
immigration and its interplay with the existence of
you know, people in the United States and that interplay with american politics is just like not the same as how working class hispanic people themselves see politics right. It's almost like, like white people, have this effective enthusiast,
for the idea of like importing a new demographic cohort that is supposed to help white liberals, sleigh conservatism, and I don't think that's that, like instrumentalized view, is
I think, with good seven, not how like actual native born american citizens with immigrant parents or grandparents see what's going on.
And it's often discussed in a weird way, like I sometimes feel like democratic campaign of
names don't realize that, like by definition only
citizens are allowed to vote. I mean I. I do think that this is something where we're gonna have to see how the next like decade plays out, because it is generally true the existence of hispanic or latino as an identity category. To begin with
as opposed to just like people. You know people mobilizing on behalf of their lake. National ancestry groups is as aid like synthetic construction, that's made in part by the kind of by it,
to racism, and so I'm I'm not. I think that there, the jury is still out on.
Either the kind of resurgence of white layer of eight white nationalism
is going to. No,
have borne and longer resident Latinos in a way that we have that we wouldn't have seen like ten years ago. I dont necessarily think,
That's going to show up in the twenty twenty election, because it's something you here
a lot in kind of lake inability, no
voter mobilization is like you, don't have be
if you dont, have a repeated practice of voting. It's just not something that occurs to you. If your parents didn't grow up
going to the poles every you know every furs
Tuesday in November, then you are less likely to think of. It is of course, that something I'm going to do and like that's obviously relevant, not only for people whose parents for non citizens, but for people who were in lake
relatively disenfranchised communities. So I am, I'm not sure,
just feeling like more latino, so to speak or feeling more commonality with recent arrivals, then they might have felt under the
in the Obama era is going to show up in the polls, but I am not sure that the kind of split your postulating between the lake
Mexican who's been here fer. You know his family has been here since before it was since it was Mexico and the person whose, like just you, know her
in twenty fourteen and settled in New York. I think that that divide is not as real as it used to be rank white paper
yeah. How to do it.
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So our white paper for today is from Giovanni Fettuccine Brian Night and Cecilia Testa, and it is called the franchise police
Henry S, evidence from arrests, data and the Voting Rights ACT, and this so fascinating paper, because it shows that black arrest rates fell in counties that were covered by legislation that was included in the Voting Rights ACT of NATO.
You five and also had a high rate of newly enfranchised black voters because of the Voting Rights ACT, and this was largely focuses on the issue of sheriffs and there's a quote in this- that from the president of the National Sheriff Association, were he says so, as opposed to a sheriff being applied
by Amari City Council and being beholden to that City Council, we are beholden to the people. We see our bosses, citizens that elect us and it's fascinating, because it talks about share all sheriffs in the south, and many municipal police chiefs are directly elected. So, for example, the sheriffs that you may know best, for instance, Sheriff Joe Arpaio elected and he defeated most recently and
Bon Foresman also helps to the impact that law enforcement has in the treatment of minorities and department. Culture with regard to minorities has been well established, but this paper shows that when more people are able to vote the black arrest rate drops and because he's arrests are carried out by sheriffs, who are elected by these newly elected newly enfranchise
our voters. That indicates a fascinating relationship between arrest rates and the people who are chosen to be shared by the people who have just gotten the voting rights yeah. So they just made me think of is
structural racism is very much a vulgar topic to discuss at the moment an offer,
is discussed in fairly complicated kinds of ways,
But but what did you say with Voting Rights ACT was that when African Americans could not bode, that was discriminatory,
but it also had downstream consequences due to a lack of political power and just an obvious glaring fact about the United States of America. Right is like we have fifty states and each state gets to senators, but there's no black majority states right, even though its thirteen percent of the population and
backed states with almost no effort. American population are greatly over represented in the Senate. You see
all this gerrymandering and state legislatures right, there's there's like a million different features of the geography of american politics that delude african american vote.
In power in ways that are not as explicitly discriminatory as the pre Voting Rights ACT. Southern disenfranchisement dynamic, but
pretty you, don't need to do a lot of self examination to see that the Senate Map is going to underweight african american voice in american policy
it's like it's right there in the contours of the lines and just kind of generally accepted as a feature of american society, but like, of course, like the political system, is responsive to people's voting power. Bright and I'll. Give you just gave left handed people like six times as many votes his right hand, and people like something would happen.
As a result of the red like it actually batter is quite a lie in like a really
In a way, this almost like to food and obvious to be worth like writing a book about or doing a lot of like really interesting discussions are, but it's such a sale
in feature of the american political system that like why boats count for more and it seems bad
that that is definitely through of aid. I think it's worth calling out. I mean I've really appreciated the structure
this paper, it is not common that the papers starts with. Here are all of the test
that we did, you usually have to like see that way down in the bottom and so promised to the paper. Others for that one. But it's it's worth inner leads it if your interested obvious little being shown at this where skimming, but you know it's worth, calling out that their finding routinely
Bit white arrests are not at all dependent on these factors that, like there is there a kind of both black and white arrests increase over the time period, but black arrests increase only a tiny bit, whereas Whiting arrest increase a bunch the time period there, comparing as the early sixties today,
seventy so like giving crime rates during that time. That makes a certain amount of sense there, also finding that that disparity reduction is concentrated in misdemeanor, so
on the very logical assumption that police have more discretion to arrest and misdemeanor cases than felony cases. Like its reason,
to understand tat kind of look at what there's showing in terms of pre
you're a black or straits and say ok alive.
That is per police harassment of black people. But the fact that white voters are kind of structure,
over counted and job, that their political preferences do not appear realm.
Too often white people are getting arrested, is fascinating. Strongly suggest the climb that crime policy is like not as much about immediately felt so
de as it is about plaintive, broader racial control and its also interesting to think about this as lake when you're talking about sheriff versus police chiefs, like yes, generally, their elected verses appointed but police chiefs are being appointed by democratically elected officials and the idea that just that extra.
Layer of insulation where, instead of electing a sheriff directly you're electing a mayor who's going to appoint a police chief that that creates so much
isolation from the community that you can just in
he knew too in a heavily black it out in in a heavily black jurisdiction is covered by the voting rights that continue to you know, arrest black people at work at lake, wildly
fortunate rates and that no one will punish. You is definitely something that I think we should be thinking about as we go into.
It's like an immediate round of local org
around policing where City council members are being pressured to tickets police budgets
mayors are being pressured to fire police chiefs. If that is going to have an impact, that's a very different fight,
Ding than what we are seeing in this white paper, in which you know just having
one layer of well, if you
not literally the person being elected it doesn't particularly matter. You know you you you can continue to do
you were doing police wise and not face a political repercussions from the black community
Eighty makes me wonder about about saintly and still write a bit that you know if you're having a race for sheriff, then obviously questions of what the police
department should be doing are going to be highly Sally hint in that election. Like all the time, maybe just nobody will vote in the sheriffs election
because I don't care about policing and crime control issues, but to the extent that you are going to vote in a sheriff selection. It sort of
to be because you care about the sheriff's department and its conduct
whereas there are lots of different things happening in municipal politics, and you know, issue sort of flow up and down the agenda, but right now this summer, like the conduct of
police departments has become a very high salience political issue.
You know in my lifetime has been the case
I miss, but mostly in the early nineties, when the framework was very, very high and people there was enough.
Sounds like ordinary normal people like wanted to put in mayors who,
We represent themselves as light. Can it be able to do something about that? But then you don't
most of the twenty first century is
hasn't been a big deal and municipal politics right, like the crime rate, was
floating downward from a relatively low level and people,
we're worried about. Schools are bike lanes or a million other things. If you-
police reform into a front rank political topic, its power
what did it starts to look more light, sheriffs elections,
and then a question is like what is that? What is the state power of that?
Zation as other things, you know, can come and go in life, and you know
There's a lot on a given mayors, doc, although
jestingly I mean the police depart,
is something that at least in formal terms,
The mayor has a lot of good
roll over in a way that they sometimes don't over other things that people are interested. I do think, though, that the issue of ill crimes salient seems largely untapped.
To what the crime rate is actually doing at any given moment, and especially in municipal sheriffs elections in which you are,
especially in areas in much of the south, where sheriffs are widely elected. Wear them
crime rate in the area that the municipality actually is, is extraordinary.
Really allowed ballot, largely because the population is low and yet the concept of crime remains ex, like a really useful cudgel. I think that that is
Coupling happened a long time ago in which you can run as a tough on crime sheriff in an area that has
little crime and at no point will anyone point that out as being a kind of a strange argument. So I
but that that remains a particular challenge and that even how we talk about crime or crime rates, or what what causes crime to go up or down as he did, that gets
tied into this, in a way that fascinating, because the salient Europe, whether or not police, perform, remain salient the concept of crime or what to do about. It is, in my view, always salient. I mean. I think that one of two things is true: either
any kind of overwhelming we of these. Like trends over the last,
half century where crime isn't consistently.
Salience issued a most people where it is easily hijacked by the politics of law and order. You know where the people who are most affected by policing practices are politically less
franchise and therefore more less able to do something about it and
People who are more enfranchised dont care as much and therefore likely to like make choices based on feed.
Or effect, rather than based on the consequences of those policies like either. All of that is going to continue to be true, and it's going to doom. The current
it's for policing, reform or re imagining or abolition or like whenever. Now you want to stick their or we are looking at a generational shift in way
a critical mass of white people and they left and centre left understand why
forcemeat, not as an issue of crime, but as an issue of racial justice and increase its
aliens accordingly to them, so that.
It's no longer an issue where the people who really care about it are the law and order. Folks, Weren t mobile
nation is primarily happening in the left centre left and then like a lot
things, can get done that were previously unimaginable, but also
a lot of these trends that we're talking about that have been true for a half
or sure you're more are going to have to get reversed or like will consequently be reversed, and
don't know how you know
don't know where things are going to settle, but the weight of the evidence is pretty
strong that generally in a bit that, like just a lot of
are going to have to change about how people make pull make electoral decisions in order for the kind of current
push to go anywhere in the long run. The long black dig up, we'll we'll just have to see her pleasure. There is always looking forward to the future. I am always uncertain about the future
That's quite the same thing, all right! Well, fair enough. Thanks to our sponsors, thanks to our producer, Jeffrey GEL and the weeks will be back on Friday.
Transcript generated on 2021-05-19.