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hell you who is going to win, but we don't know should listen to my my acacia need silver yeah. I suggest you tell you whose can that's what's the idea, but the thing that will enable that you can predict things in the future with certainty and you don't need to worry about messy probabilities. Thank God. I have had enough probability: distributions I may I dont want. I don't. I should not speak for date, but I would say that as a long time reader listener of his, I feel like I can tell when Trying to tell you that the conventional wisdom about who will win is wrong and you really need to pivot in the other direction, and when he's trying to tell you that if you believe the numbers like one candidate looks like we had the other and I feel like twenty sixteen years, I really raising the alarm of Donald Trump can win.

This year. I does not. He does not have that same edge to his voice, which is not to say that he does not think does not think Donald Trump could any obviously thinks that is possible, but but we talk a lot about how twenty sixteen and twenty two you're different and it's pretty clear to be from that conversation that that he thinks and still show by them to be in a stronger twenty twenty position. Yes I got all I do it because I knew you had that a doctor I decided to not make this You and me bs, asking about this, because I think we are both need self. Readers and fans, and he's just there in person to tell you I'm so you know what we're gonna do instead is try to reflect back on some of what we want. Learned over the past four years. What we've experienced as we about three questions that we wanted to talk about? What changed our minds about over the past four years. What surprised about the campaign and what kind of policies

do we wish we had had the chance furthermore, and maybe think about more during the Trump years? So, let's just out, let us started out like number one. What what have you changed your mind? If so, this is not going to be shocking, tweets listeners, but it is still a big to make. I have changed my mind about what kind of behaviour the american public, or at least stay a substantial portion of it will accept, political leaders, what kind of behaviour were elected that politicians will choose to defend or look the other way on how weak our systems of automatic accountability or even reliable accountability really are, and thus, in some macro sense how undefended our put the system really is, I looked back to two thousand and sixteen- and I think about- why did I underestimate Donald Trump's strength, despite his lead in the polls for much of that primary that simplest

and is that he acted in ways that I believed would ultimately turn enough people off that he wouldn't, when that there is some, a bar in american politics and that he was beneath it in the way he comported himself. The way he treated other both the way he talked about politics. The way here, owed his own mind to work and exposed to that. Length of time like. I believed enough in my fellow residents of this country, that you would be rejected and their ways in which True he's been consistently unpopular leader is never won one election with a majority of the vote, but it was fundamentally untrue and Trump was lionize for it by substantial portion of the population What you really saw behind. That was away that partisan polarization then like locked, the Republican Party in place behind him- and I say this on the show many times but the degree to which that should make

afraid of a savier. More strategic version of Donald Trump, I think cannot be, cannot be overstated. So just my simple view. Who about there being a kind of bar decency and just functional to end, like obvious ability that you need to clear to be taken seriously in Barrack and politics is gone, and my belief that power These were acted. I become responsible fashion. If somebody manages to come in from the outside, who does it clear? Thus bars is gone. Oh liquor, I'm much more pessimistic about the long term future of the american political system, and I was a couple years back. You don't really struck me about that thinking. Backdrop had was four years ago was how the little difference it made that kinds of cycling. Subtle elite signals like were, in fact

Blaring during the twenty sixteen campaign, like the trump couldn't get like republican Ex presidents to speak on his half that his convention, that you know George well thought he was terrible that you know I mean I I it's not like. I ever thought that, like everybody, sits on the edge of their seat waiting to see what George well columns will say, but I used to feel like if you hey detention to elite sentiment that that way, either causally or just correlation Ali. Like tell you something important about what was going. On, and it, like you, we did write like to some mix of people. Now carrying the intermediate aiding institutions in the media, not really carrying or framing a correctly It is very important. I, like Fox NEWS, did not portray The question of like Donald Trump Fitness as something that conservatives disagreed about

seriously but yet I mean it was that it was a weird what there's some sub and that. Obviously this is a very big part of what my my book polarization is about, but I was struck over and over again that often times one republican elites would challenge, Donald Trump front directly or indirectly they would lose the challenge, and I always believe that these signal moment of the Mary and these signal moment for understanding the modern right came when Fox NEWS actually He tried to challenge Donald Trump. So if you think back to twenty six p m I believe it is the first republican primary debate and Fox NEWS puts up its like more respectable journalist group, so Chris Wallace, Megan, Kelly and Brett Bear.

Like whatever you think about them individually? That's a crew who they're conservative, I think in their personal politics, but they want to be taken seriously as journalists and it's clear at that moment that a decision had been made they like they were going to, the air out of this trap thing, and so he really gets pact. By that I mean really tough questions. Megan Kelly reading back Miss. Geodesic things, he said other Fox new other Once in the house, I think those Wallace like really ask about non conservative positions, Trump is taken and Trumpet Fox NEWS go to war for about a week and a half and just Trump wins Kelly's out at the network. A year later, tougher Carl was brought in after O. Reilly goes tone to be like a more trumpets figure there, I bet that living Roger S, sort of like makes peace with Donald Trump and factories becomes approach on propaganda network, but but

think so many people have a view and an understanding of Fox NEWS as a guy like a truly capable actor in Republican per politics- and I think it's no doubt important, but also they are also in HAWK. Conservative base and its anger and its resentments and its fears and its concerns and its desires and when big, when they create it's something that went beyond them and spoke more directly that base than they did Fox news. Did up ending the knee and became a more trumpets network. I mean the network today looks quite different than it did for five years ago, the things Tucker Paulsen talks about and focuses on. You know they cover as it is willing to make and not willing to make our different than what we used to think. Fox news was, and so like yeah, even further music ain't. You think the power of the base is much stronger than I would have given couple years ago, and I was pretty chapter to twenty twelve and it looked like you know I had to sort of he decides thing happened. They got me

me in over all these more base associated characters that has turned out to be true. For that election, not your for the next one, but even Fox NEWS right like they there. They do not have full range motion like they. There is some happening, the Republican Party that is a little bit independent, I think, of the of the actors and the institutions and keeps pulling them to the right of each This is more legible to see the way they they that go to the right. Speaking of of twenty twelve that that comes down. To my surprise, I, which was heart or change change of mind, which was about Republicans and Latino voters where you know I went and I looked at my official twenty twelve election- take effort for site. Whereas working at the time- and I was trying to like pump the brakes- a little bit like the moral of the story is that Republicans need to be easier.

Immigration to win latino voters, but even in that context I was still sag. Look you obviously candy with an increasingly diverse America by Say, the two, a huge population of people, that believe their presence in the country is a threat to the basic integrity of the country. You don't trump comes along and he wins, and we all have a reasons for four, why he wins, but the extent where? Can you really see this in the polling now that over them few years as trumps overall level of support, has gone down its level of latino support has gone up, and you know there's a bunch of different explanations for that people. People look out at night, you know delve into the sort of my core elements of of the demographic, but I just think is important too. To know what I mean for me personally, but I think for a lot of people

that the sort of like big picture view that most of us had about the relationship of the immigration, An issue too lets you know. Electorate wishes not really true at all. I mean it's like the opposite of the twenty twelve GOP autopsy report, not just in terms of like the direction Trump took, but ultimately in terms of what kinds of voters is able to gain there and I'm one love all its. Maybe not is deal in the world. It's not that many people, let's not inexplicable, or by any means. Everybody always knew this. First community, a lot of different issues batter, but I feel like there was some pretty farm and hard conventional wisdom that? I was bought into that has really sort of not panned out, and so we you you just read this a little bit, but I know you ve looked at all the data on this one

you think it is a it is leading to rising trump support among Hispanics, like what is. Is it policy, is it is it pepper man? Is it how the economy is doing? like how do you see, I don't think, what's working is specifically the anti immigration demagoguery like what is working. You know. I think that there's sort of three horns to it. One is a sort of a key, the specific phenomenon, which is that younger Cuban voters had been maybe trending core Democrats for why all and there, Why is the sort of backlash against the perception that trumpets, racist and anti latino and he has really just like mended fences with it with the cuban community, as it was interesting profile I think, was in the times, but there's like a very prominent young cuban American Youtube her who is very popular, a whit with, but the cuban it and then as well and community.

And Democrats. Younger Democrats, in particular, embrace of the labor of socialism has been damaging, I think without particular segment of the electorate, but when I hear from pollsters From politicians working in Texas in Arizona most fundamentally is just actually really similar to what you heard about working class white voters? I'm gettin that just like in twenty sixteen, but the kind of like long arc of that demographic slipping away for Democrats, which is just like there's a fair amount of conservative cultural views, particularly about gender norm, stuff and to some extent about guns and and other kinds of things there

and it's not exactly that you know immigration is not as important. I think to let you know. Citizens as Democrats who constructed you, know a group framework sort of wanted it to be right. It's not that like trumps position, immigration super popular with us, ass. If it was you'd, be doing you ve even better, but it's that the general sort of culturally conservative worldview which, if you just think about Latin America right, like lots of culturally conservative politicians, do well in Latin America and it's the same thing with people who you know our latin american immigrants or their children and grandchildren, particularly people who haven't gone to college and thus are not a culture rated in

to the kind of broader progressive worldview. Let let me ask you one other question that I think flows from that which is just an empty rhetoric like well like after Trump that European destroyed for generation among Ex right, like after tromp, like the dubious, never gonna rebuild among young voters cause I mean what do you really see as the GEO peace numbers him? Him of a young voters are wild these days. It's you know like that. They wish to first from Harrison. Nobody under thirty, but is something that is in. That kind of, I think, somewhat surprising, shifted in trouble to support since twenty. Sixteen is that in I'll be in the groups of people, often thought would be the most difficult for trumped makings with his actually made some gains and in the groups that you would have thought it most difficult for Democrats maintains with they ve made some gains. So is it s a case that you know Joe Biden, let's say about a Windsor

and in a couple of days, and then you know whatever either but ever happens at twenty. Twenty four happens that just if there are publicans and two cycles to nominate a good candidate that its ache, everything was trumpets forgiven and the site gets wiped clean. Like do you think, there's a lock in of brand that will affect the party going forward, or do you think that politics and put coalitions are much more fluid candidate to candidate and cycled cycle than the conventional wisdom would have you believe I mean it seems like there's a lot of fluidity write em, how do you remember after two thousand eight way, like I mean George W Bush really screwed up and like, the country without a good precedent that the country was in a sorry state. You know at that point in time and Democrats They want a much broader victory. It then, I think even looks like it's I'm on the table, just jobs that the geographical scope,

really did not take them long to bounce back and somebody was they brought in this incredibly intense racial polarization right that, I believe, is now saying Trump in a weird way took us away from, but like Obama was not a president too, Try to be a polarizing figure on racial topics have been very much the opposite, but but now. He was or or the conservative reaction to him was things just like things change very rapidly right. I think the biggest problem that were the concept is that if you look at where the sort of like millennia all like gee. Bulge is right since, like I'm, I'm like the oldest millennial about people like you, a few years younger than me are, are much more numerous bright dislike. Just like a ton of people who are oppressed your age and are aging into like peak.

Voting and stuff like that. So, like Republicans, have a lot of ground to make up, you know so even marginal gains. Don't don't help you if your voters I and other people start turning out at higher levels, but a eat. Just It's been amazing to me to see compassionate conservatism than tea party libertarianism, then, whatever trumps populism is with honestly, a lot of policy continuity between them, but like completely different branding and effect and everybody just sort of like buys into it. I don't I don't know I mean the future is hard to predict. I ll stick break and then go to what is surprised us. Have you having trouble media your goals, focusing work if you have feeling Strasser having trouble sleeping better help is here for you, it's not us help class inside a crisis line better help is secure,

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be of a global pandemic, but as I keep watching things unfold in like american politics of the Trump years, I'm just like, I keep being surprised by the stasis in the polling. You know by how, like it's such a clean shea, like it feel like the news has been so busy. But when you might try to look back on, the numbers is just like nothing happened at which is actually why different from the bushy right, where public evaluation of him was a roller coaster and even Obama who had more stable ratings. It felt in the Obama time that it was like well, he started popular because of hope and change. Then his numbers kind of cratered, because the economy didn't get that much better, and then you is kind of crept up, is as time went on and that felt right. It felt like yours

cracking events in the world. This trump stops man, it's like it's like. What's what's going on like like, why have we produce stop this journalism and everybody else like like what is this all for like? If nobody cares or has mine's open to being changed about anything, including him, not getting credit for the economy, gate being good when the economy with strong like it's just it makes me feel nihilistic. You know like enough in an comfortable way, now that I remember what yours was I'm glad, but yes first because this was also my first choice for this question, but you had taken it, so I couldn't have it too, but I do want to talk about it. So one I just cannot agree more. I wrote a whole book. I wrote a whole book about how polarization Locks, Americans in political place, and creates a politics devoid of like accountability, and I still would have predicted if you told me about the year to come, that there would have been a pretty sharply

the polls what I would not have predicted? I wrote this piece that I'm going to quote from now on September, two ND, but it's a pretty similar situation right now, but a year for Trump had a forty one point: three percent prevaricating, any fifty four percent disapproval rating and five thirty eight. So I was like at the beginning, in twenty nineteen and then during the three hundred and sixty five days that followed two hundred thousand people died. Unemployment went to ten point: two percent we banned travel like also Trump had a reached during this period. He like gas, voicemail, hirelings, ready gas protesters above a part. And at the end of all of that, at the end of all of that he was at forty two point: two percent approval and fifty four point: three percent disapproval: so's approval went up a point and is disapproval state functionally the same thing. That's crazy and then, on the other hand, when it it, just as I did like this big piece of

I'll put it in show notes, but the thing about Trump was that he had really really really gotten people to make up their minds about him and the part of it. That's scary to me is not like you know the people who, say they approve of trump? Even though, is doing an ok job, you could argue on the economy, because they're just knock and approve, as somebody who is a racist like I like, because I agree with our position- is very intuitive to me, but it's like how bout a few big thoughts trump is doing a good job in the economy and he totally flubbed chrono virus and like one of the answers appears to be that allow those folks live and informational universe where he didn't flood corona virus, but not everybody's watching Fox NEWS, and so then another possibility seems to simply be that if you want Trump to win the next election, because you just don't like the Democrats, you have a powerful, psychological reason to like discount evidence it here

doing a bad job. And then a third argument is actually that he really has paid for handling coronavirus badly. Because if you look at a number of other world leaders and a number of governors, their approval ratings have gone up dramatically. But he is not he's gone if anything a little bit down at this point and so he's not gotten the bump. Other people got, and so maybe in fact, that the intuitions of the public are to give leaders a lot of credit for what they're doing, even if they're not doing that kind of a job like Andrew. More than a big bouts despite hand on this badly at the beginning, but use you really see trumps mistakes here in the fact that I am he did it go up where so many other people. I have like a really really big rally around the leader effect, so maybe he paying more in the against counterfactual, like one minute gin like Job Bush, would have done. A good job would be crews into real action right now, but it is, it is unsettle I would say well plus just like all the scandals right like do you remember when liquid would be pushing

as president and he got reelected and then early in his second term, he like tried to get rid of a bunch of U S attorney use in order to replace them with, like people who we're gonna be more partisan, which is not within his constitutional powers of office. But, like was considered an inappropriate way to behave, and there was a big story. You know just like audits on its own, like that the U S attorney scan to like it was like a hawk, the whole thing, and there was also a big moment in the Bush years, where he was seen as having mishandled hurricane response so like both of those things happen beers and, like nobody, even thinks about them anymore right. It's like you know you look at any one thing and it could be like while it's odd does impeachment thing, didn't really hurt him. If anything, it helped him It's odd that even really go down in the pandemic, but it's like every day

You know what they're just like such incredibly powerful equilibrating forces that, like I guess, we chalk up to polarization, but it's weird. It's You know it's not like. We didn't have polarization in Obama's first term, but there is some there's actually something similar. That happened with Obama like if you look at Obama's approval ratings against what you would predict from the economy. He's much more stable than past presidents had been under similar conditions, just not a stable as Trump. I know I mean it's just it's just an incredible like step chain she now, but it is true right now. If you go back and look so five, thirty eight has a good like historical approval you look at evaluations of George Hw Bush, and it's like man. It's a wild ride, you know. It's all is an interesting argument on this. That one reason Bush could go so far down in his second term, which did not happen.

Start my meaning. Even though Iraq was a disaster, he still has a very, very strong public support and citizens. Somebody besides argue to me: why do this peace, but is that The signs are willing to give up on a president who is term limited out, because it's actually arguably helpful to do so light. Yet he was bad, but, like Elect John Mccain Stomach, it's great and it's actually becomes like some of the polarizing dynamics switched their valence. If Donald Trump won reelection and kept fucking everything up he might actually be able to go lower in a second term, because Republicans wouldn't need people like Donald Trump to keep power. They could actually Tredah switch people's allegiance to him. Scott Nicky, Hayley or somebody wanna get sick

gently right like if you I M, because right now, it's like some people are just highly committed to not voting for Democrats and it's hard to say to yourself longing to vote for a terrible president right to keep the Democrats at a power. But if from wasn't literally on the ballot, you could say yeah he's terrible, but I am voting for you know who ever to reside like him, and I want to keep Joe by now, whereas now it's like it's too much dissonance right still, it's like. I don't know about it. If it just one of these eggs and makes me wonder as what's yours was, it was your surprise. So mindset, young flip that by the same token, I expected the way Joe Biden campaign to go would be more subject to polarizing dynamics, and it actually has been so something that I anticipated was it Joe Biden relatively solid approval ratings would go down.

Once he became the general election nominee and there is a sort of unified attack on him like there was a if you think, back to democratic primary. There is actually a lot of semi positive coverage of Joe Biden on Fox NEWS and even in Donald Trump tweets, because what they are trying to do and say is it like oh Democratic Party has an opportunity tat like nominate a moderate normal guy in the tradition of its past nominees, but instead they're gonna go Easy Bernie or Elizabeth Warren, or something, and so there's like a lot of this, like three dimensional chess thing happening, but then, of course, Joe Biden wins the nomination, so they can't do that anymore. So all of the attacks on the right turn on Joe Biden and his approval rating goes up and he's actually going more popular during this period and then just a bunch of other things he's doing right job I needed, because run if you read say: oh, my god, what is the name of identity crisis the sides fabric book on twenty? Sixteen? They have all this data showing

One reason that Trump ends up winning is. It is dominates Habibi right here, sucks up all the oxygen, even one dead, the coverage is negative, he's the only guy get uncovered, and so one they take away. The law People have from that. Isn't it This is now the right strategy in american politics. Even you're gonna make people mad make sure. Resetting the terms of the debate and Joe Biden just doesn't. He runs a kind of quiet, more inoffensive campaign he's very focused as far as I can tell not on giving people reasons to vote for him, but are not giving them reasons to vote against him, like, I think Joe Biden campaign is best understood as an attempt to define negative partisanship, not as an attempt to harness positive partisanship. Like he's letting Donald Trump be the mobilizing forced, eternal Democrats, but he does not want to be an equal and opposite forced to turn out Republicans and look

action in a couple days. We don't have the results yet, but as best as I can tell, this has been successful and Joe Biden in running this campaign. That sort of like defies like all, post twenty. Sixteen democratic pundit tree except from may be the idea that, like a white guys safer nominees, which is a very unfortunate theory that came up twenty sixteen, like other than that, like Joe Biden does not creating equal and opposite, policy agenda he's not generate a kind of like left populist force. He is not an assault on the establishment. He does not, I did dominate the media, does not try to win twitter fights, he doesn't tredah like exhibit his level of anger about the Republican Party like just like nothing. He like he does not focus on like the things resistance, twitter or, resistance. Democratic party figures are into like he's a central figure in what becomes the impeachment issue

but he doesn't really run on that at all, but like to two weeks and even less so than other candidates in their whose sons are not at the centre of like that effort. Donald Trump is making to investigate and it all just kind of works, and so either this excessive violence campaign for me is surprising, be he licked? Doesn't I don't find him inspiring figure on the stump. It works for people and I think those like there's a lot worth rethinking. You know that baby distinct, runny and Donald Trump, but understanding directly what the dynamics of the person who run against are, unlike harnessing that is like correct strategic thinking, as he s soap, Zobeide and success, and the fact that so far he's mostly he's been more sex. But I would have anticipated in avoiding some of the polarizing dynamics and not running polarizing strategies is, is a surprise to me by relationship with that'll laughed, has gone a lot better than a reality instead

right so Hilary, I think, capped having moments when she wanted to. Gesture in a reassuring direction disorder Moderately minded people she wanted to tell endorsements from various republican party figures? You know who didn't like trump and then they would be kind of squeals from the left. Oh, my god, like you're mainstreaming, you rehabilitating all these NEO cons, Guenaud or I remember something. That's like Hillary's going to run as the candidate of both parties, establishment with the backing of Goldman Sachs and the CIA. You know somebody. And then her campaign would kind of look back around I'll drive like to secure the the base rate in would get itself into stuff. Like her big speech about the alt right, you know and, like you know, owing to take off farm

stance in the kind of most interesting. You know culture, war, kind of things happening and it didn't it didn't work and I think it didn't work in part. I mean, I think, there's a second element right where, by you know, cortical, looks the part and we don't people dont, have like what would Jennifer Palmy areas as in a bucket permanent, have like a script in their head of like a woman as chief executive, and it just makes a challenging everything. She does is simply to heighten scrutiny. People are also just more freaked out about Trump, so they give by a little bit more leeway, but I also think that he won the primary in a way that was in it in a interesting way, more respectful to his progressive rivals, like he just said that he didn't agree with them

about some other stuff, and then he got more votes than he won right. He didn't do any of the stuff where he was like. No I'm the real progressive in the race. I'm here do some of the south. It that hilarious people dead of trying to insinuate that it was like racists like Bernie Sanders and it left him with just like what the facts are which is that if Biden wins the election, some of the stuff that left wing people want to see happen will happen and like some of it, won't because he's not one like he's, not there guy, but he does agree with them about some things and they have just like a very You know Glenn Greenwald side. I think, like a pretty soon patio view of the world with the more or less, wing people and that has led him messy drat, like all of his ads, are like so hyper centrist rightly he wants to do

engage people to be like Joe Biden. I guess he believes in being a nice guy right, like they're, really like out there You know in in orange media he's like not out there that aggressively in paid media me binds run up a children ads they're like their interesting and its good creative, but he's like really trying to take the ideological edge off. But I think he can do that because he like feels is left flank, is secure Let me add two things on that's so one. We should note that just like a gender race, dynamic here, talkin to the political side, dishonor cryptic of- and she saw me about research, she's she's done- showing that people will give white male candidates. They did. I there are open to them being vague in a way that not to talk to women and and and non might candidates. So thick avaux, like White now candidate is like other be like Yeah we're gonna, listen. This is some scientists and fix a crowd of Irish you're like a cat sounds good, and then you know it's like with colored container court.

Elizabeth warned you gotta get super specific on your plan and that gives people things to attack, as others are things Bided was able to do that that you know I'm Hillary Clinton cut it. For instance. An incredibly incredibly telling content were bite and actually says during the meetings during the primary I'm paraphrasing this, but its functionally correct, says you know, Hillary Clinton got treated, really fairly, because she was a woman in the election. I'll tell you something that's going to happen with me and I think he's right, but it's really grim so that's one on the thing I want to know it is, I think, there's nobody more sceptical that me about Joe Biden View of politics. They, if you just have way better personal relationships with key actors, overcome a lot of ideological tensions and whether or not that work on the right I still remain very skeptical with, but there is no doubt that it actually was very important on the left,

so just Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders have a much much much much much much much much much better personal relationship. Then centres in how they hunted and so well Bernie Sanders? I did campaign, Four Hillary Clinton and twenty sixteen like he was much more positive and, like evidently warm towards Joe Biden like biting, reached out in a more distinct way. Am I created the Bernie Sanders by the task forces, but you know that Sanders has really like bear hug. Joe Biden ever since the primary? It has been clear, they like each other- and that has been like this foundation for like a more serious coal strategy between MIKE, though the Biden Wing of the party in the sand swing to the party in a way that I think, reflects job out its view of politics, which is that you can work more easily to compromise and bridge got ideological difference. If you have like a strong grounding of personal,

They should ship and again not my view of politics usually- and I think it like is not an organ which Mcconnell, but I gotta give bite in credit on this while like this is how he says it works and more or less like compared to some some of what we see in the past. It work yet am I never break and then our third? Our third topic If the last year's harvest anything it's that we don't what will happen next, but there's One thing we can all be sure of the only future. One we can all share and leading the charge. In building that future is mercy core with over forty. There's a humanitarian work under its belt building, together as a mercy course DNA and as the climate this increases their partnering with those on the front lines. Making resources more accessible to farmers across the globe Anthony communities against escalating natural disasters and ensuring people have. Who's, they mean to thrive mercy course doing orkut matters, but they can't do it alone. That's where you and I commend together. We all

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And small businesses across America get a ppp loan? Funds are limited, so apply now at Womply, dot, com, VOX and see? If you qualify for a hello. That's w! Oh, I m p l why dot com slash veo ex wobbly? not a lender terms and programme rules apply. So you know this is the weeds. We hope it should. We talk about the way the aspects of public policy from time to time been allotted ladder drama lately, but sisters are third question was like the real weeds like what's the what's the topic you wish you had gotten to be more in the weeds on during these trump years, so I would it's not just during the Trump years, also like predating jump into the Obama years, but I have just come in my own ranking of of issues by importance to think the? U S, China relationship and the way-

hey. We engage recipe, China across a host of issues right everything from from trade to climate. Her like GEO political influence, is one of the most existential important questions in just policy in politics. Oh stop it matters for a huge numbers of things about is tremendously for the economy of, I think, there's a case to be made that a better relationship on both sides would have made the krona virus response fast or maybe China would be more honest at the beginning. Maybe we would have cooperated better from the beginning, and though I have not done as much work on: U S in China and its much harder for me, like. Obviously, my understanding of the chinese political system is much weaker and so like I just don't have a strong views, is how like to have on the correct way to handle somebody incredibly difficult parts of that relationship from like the chinese treatment of the weaker. As to the two, every right like I just do not put everything together into a package, and this is a place where Trump has really changed, both american-

foreign policy, but also America's foreign policy orientation in a dramatic way in a way that is affected, how the democratic parties also responding their budget. Things were Donald Trump did something and democratic responded by doing the opposite or going further in the opposite direction. Right Democrats are more pro immigration, because, if Donald Trump than they were before Donald Trump, like they responded, Thermo Static, laid a trump in that way. On China, democratic foreign policy establishment has become more China hawkish, like David actually responded, had shrunk by Summit Co. Opting his views on that. In part because a lot of them kind of agree there was a latent, somewhat suppressed view that China is becoming worse and worse geopolitical actor and that what we were doing before wasn't working within you

brill view that they would become a more small, democratic and liberal society ass. He got richer. That was quite panting out, but also just something we are trying to do with him. Just weren't functioning Melick. There are threats visits in the Obama administration to like they believed in the transpacific partnership. Trade deal very heavily as a way of containing chinese influence in that region and I'd rather not you agreed without, like that, with some big they thought was true, but just in general, I think it's it's easier for me to cover domestic policy, but I do I just think the Us China relationship with you. Ask me: what's gonna drive a lot of how well the next, like hundred years, turn out whether or not we end up in a suspicious difficult for Competition with the other, rising superpower or whether we find some ways tat to be cooperation possible, is really decisive but I don't feel like. I know how to do it in the way I feel like. I know how to fix the healthcare system yeah. I die William with that, I mean I'm always interested in the young Disney

always a lot of continuity in american foreign policy relative to to policy policy across partisan transitions, and I think people saw Obama's second term this way, but now like looking back after from, I think we will say what pain, Obama. Second term. It turned out that the quorum quote pivot to Asia. Men to a reconfiguration of american foreign policy in an anti chinese direction that the transfer of trade partnership, which you know the content of teepee p, is like ninety five percent MIKE banal interest, politics, but the construction of that particular group of countries and the sales pitch, It was very much pitched as like the opening salvo in an anti China economic competition Trump there. Followed that in a different kind of way Biden just this week, you don't you find it

He started giving an answer about tariffs and China and he was he wouldn't use the words teepee p, but like he was saying that, like his critique of trumps approach to this, is that trumped in do enough like teaming up with allies, to sort of like gang up on on China in trade wise, which was that he be concept right. So we see a real through line there, and I always find it hard to report on these issues, because I find the realm of like. Sports in the foreign policy world to be very confusing, like the actually like the lack of polarization I'm a topic to me always Mason like harder to read. You know like people don't have.

They don't draw lines is starkly it's hard for me to get a sense of like like what's the bottom line like what what really drives this big picture. Disagreement. Where's, like I could tell you like this- is the conservative view of tax policy. This the progressive view. Here's, where sort of centrist e people like what they accept, what they don't like, why they sort the way they do farmhouse stuff, always seems kind opaque to me, speaking of opaque, what is your buddy? You wish summertime governed. Yes, I mean I don't like I understand. Why didn't do this is because the traffic would have been terrible, but I feel bad that I did not cover the honor. Winding of a lot of the regulation of Wall Street that was put in place after the financial crisis. I I feel better one level because, like I spent a lot of time covering that, it was being built up under

Obama Years- and it is just like feels like a waste to me personally, to have like bothered to learn what F sock is in what the supplemental leverage rule is, and then done any articles about ass kind of sliding back down the hill, but also because the nature of financial crises, as we know, is that no matter what you do like given are how bad you regulatory policy in any given year. There probably won't be a banking crisis, but if you raise the eye, from like. This is gonna happen once every thousand years to once, every fifteen years you ve created a real problem, and I think that the Trump Administration has in fact made the banking system much much risky error and the odds that that will be forcefully undone by a new administration seem a little

low to me just because it's like it's hard to its hard to regulate an industry with obscure rules unless the public is really geared up about unlike the room, was incredibly geared up in two thousand ninety doesn't hand like now. Nobody cares right. If I, if I tried to like you, know, tell people about Randy Court all sides, the innocent note. Nobody wants to read that had to somebody else, when I need so tedious, but I think we're gonna have a big problem, yes it. So. This is something that I followed a bit, but I dont have a global view on it. Why talk to people in this? I have often been assured that we still her pretty leverage requirements in that one reason: we're not think bigger problems. Is it like the capital cushions were strong, so how bad

you think the unwinding is because you saying this is making me think that that I have underestimated. I do some stuff is getting gutted, but on an I've talked to convict remarks. I was doing some reporting on the possible financial crises during krona virus, and I They got more reassuring view is that we are in better shape in large part because of these regulations, but but you're suggesting, maybe that's not true. Well, capital position of the banks is alot stronger right, so we we headed into this, and I think a lot of us were like a shit about it like that. Start, my own begging experts and check in with them, and they were, like you, don't know, no bad like it's fine right, like the banks, have more capital, which is true right and household balance sheets are healthier up, but the rules have become a lot. Less bind is like what happened heading into the crisis is that all of the major banks actually

holding, I should say, holding up that the banks were being less risky than they were allowed to be, which is fine right. Prudence sticks a certain number of years after after a crisis, we have let a number of big firms. So this was the so called em like non bank systemically significant company. A number of them have lost that designation. We have There was a legislation like crape owes Bell a bunch of the sort of bigger regional banks were left out of the highest level of regulatory scrutiny. A bunch of non banks were left out of the highest level of regulatory scrutiny. The vote calls on the toughest set of rules was made weaker. So I actually think it's pretty bad ended disk comfits me that so many of my

old friends from the Obama years who worked on these topics, have headed out into the private sector, usually working in the financial services. Industry. In some capacity, where I mean really not to be like mean about it, but I don't one hundred percent trust their reassurances, look, I remember when they were in government and they fought quite hard around these points that now that they ve been unwound they're kind of like how it's not a big deal, but date they really fought for this stuff, like they fought for the non bank systemically significant, they fought to keep the lower. They fought to raise that the capital rules, and now we have a lot more vulnerabilities. I think around the edges of the sis, no. If you assume, binds gonna come in and everybody he appoints is gonna, be like really good there can. We watch and everybody like hawks, think it's probably far:

de surveillance measures. From Dodd Frank said: the regulators can see more stuff like that, still all the air, but you remember what you heard about with bubbles. Is that somebody needs to like blow the whistle while things are going well and that's just challenging. You know like it's really challenging for any set of, the leaders, and I think making the basic rules lack. Sir, is like really quite bad. I mean I they. They knew what they were doing the first time all well next time. Let's do this! and you're gonna know a lot more than we do now. We will have to see what happens as so thanks Azra, thanks to our sponsors, thanks as always to our producer, Jeffrey EL, I should mention: there's going to be a special live weeds on Tuesday that vocs supporters are invited to There will also be an election on Tuesday, and then there will be

or weeds is after the election. When we hopefully have somebody what's going on, It will cease.