« The Weeds

Make America 2015 Again

2019-05-14

Jane, Dara, and Matt discuss Joe Biden's claim that Trump is an aberration, plus some fresh research on the macroeconomics of bankruptcy.

Related reading:

Biden/aberration explainer

Biden/bankruptcy explainer

MOVE bombing

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Support for this episode, country Clicker lose an average of three hours every day, switching between all our work apps, but you can get them back with click on a flexible platform of the brain, All your central tools in one place, people prioritize tasks, collaborate on docks, chat with your team and track comes it's, why companies like Hoover and website used click up is that Mission Control Centre, placing every other aptly we're using before even guarantees to help you save one day a week and get more done. It's completely customizable and it's free forever to dry click up today. It click up that calm, slash, weeds, hey everybody. This is Jason buckling and let me welcome you back to our podcast in conversation with sharper five plus now season. One was all but the biggest names and business steed Laddie, Danny Reeves ship Wilson waiting here who are talking to now proceeding to Philip friend CEO aspect, wordsmith founder tv, a heart attack our counter have had their hats and chinese sphere
founder, Hosty, Rio, eggs, Chrysochlora Cofounder, lower carbon capital area K C, O Hara shape this. His in conversation with shop of my plus, I took one political science class chair customers in the class. I gotta see hello, welcome to them so of the waves on the Box, India, Pakistan at work. I met your place. He is here with Jane Coastline and terror. Lend and I've been I'm trying for weeks to get people talk about Joe Biden, but but is he's the front runner and he does really have policies to analyze as yet has not we are living in it. We have. Finally, finally found is efficiently weeds. The angle on Joe Biden, yes, the weeds, as, as I said
in the end, though I shall I feel the weeds was on the wrong side of history and Joe Biden. This is proving that, but so I have been very interested in the fact that Joe Biden he launched his campaign with a video A lot of the video is Psych Barack Obama saying that things were Joe Biden. Some of it is Joe Biden talking about America, but about a striking thing right at the beginning is Joe Biden says that we're gonna look back on these four years as an apparent time in american history. But that if Trump gets another four years, it could fundamentally change. The trajectory of the country and what was interesting to me about this is that there was a very widespread backlash to this claim, not like among voters. Obviously, binds launches can very well but, like I wrote to expand on this, and I was
straining to find a positive column from any quarter of you know the Pandit sphere on this, and the closest we got was MAX boot. Like Biden, is totally wrong but, like this is a good lie to win over swing. Voters with so, I think it's worth kind of putting this in the context of what Joe Biden thinks his advantage. the democratic field right like we're already beginning to see one of the Great Lake Jenner Egg, questions that electoral politics come up with Believe me, you, we ve already started. Seeing me, you're gonna see a lot more of over the next several months. Is that Democrats, like Joe Biden because Elect ability is, pre eminent concern. They want a candidate who can beat Donald Trump. You should be an intelligent news, consumer always sceptical when this causalities presented in this specific direction, because there, substantial evidence from prior cycles that people select the candidate,
like and then take whatever that candidate says their advantages or their key issue is, as the thing this most important to them, like in twenty four people, reelected W Bush a lot of people went out untold exit pollsters that their big concern was moral issues, was it that they genuinely we're, certain about moral issues and weighed pushing John carry no joy W Bush was running on moral issues, and so that's why they did it so, like you be a little bit short you. You should be a little bit sceptical, but that's wide Joe Biden is making this aberration argument. He saying if we re Elect Donald Trump, if you I grew up and you pick some one who isn't me Donald will win real action and then and will be set on a path that we can't control. But if you make the right choice and you pick me I will beat Donald Trump and then all of terrible things that you ve been feeling and except
we have seen over the last four years will feed into the background it something that only makes sense if you can treat Donald Trump as an apparent figure rather than yeah were caught a fundamental war over what the meaning of America is and whoever you will act it even if their elected president is going to have to continue to fight this generational war. I actually in buttons nonsense, video. He also middle of references to what happened at the unite the right rallying Charlottesville, in which our young woman, Heather higher, was murdered by eight all activists, and it's interesting, as I think the end higher understanding that look well, things like this didn't happen before Trump or that, yes, we could get back till the House Yon days of twenty fifteen when life was easy and the June bugs were
come on out all spraying, and there has been a lot of conversation recently about how Biden appeal to black voters, where he is by far the lead, where it's not so much about elect ability. It's about stability for a specific swathe of black voters who are leg. I want to hitch my wagon to a winner. I know who Joe Biden is. I recognise Joe Biden, I understand what he what he represents. What he represents is not is stability represent, something that, like a return to something that was akin to something I get into, maybe not the you, I think that there is a concept of politics and which you're going for the best thing we're ethics are. A lot of voters are thinking of the not the worst thing as the option. What so to me what was interesting, but this whole thing is not even so much like, but Biden said, lie, but the extent of the the backlash
against it right I tune in to the positive America episode that John February, Damn Pfeiffer recorded that was wet after buttons and answer because do an interesting quest gin hanging around binds presidential aspirations for three or four years now has been there it's kind of seem like CORE Obama team that, like put him on the ticket and clue like SAM, is also not push him exactly as ready. Either there is some kind of census of inner Ex Obama staffers. Surprisingly low number of them have signed on the back and potential fabulous viper. You know, big fish speak very highly of Joe Biden. They work for Joe Biden. They, like Joe Biden, they too extent defend him against numerous critics, but they were but Willie harsh about this aberration thing and in its telling, because so people on the left were very critical of this statement in part because it doesn't comport with left wing ideology, but also in part as terrorism.
the opposite right? Like left wing Democrats, don't like Joe Biden so whatever it is, Joe Biden says: they're gonna say they disagree with, but but like Deposit America guys are not the right like they are not like fighting for cod, all of the Democratic Party against the nefarious forces establishment. They are the nefarious forces, the establishment and from their perspective like this, is wrong that trump a symptom of the underlying disease of wrought inside the Republican Party, I got to mask. He wrote a version of this to where he was very explicitly was I someone's gotta Joe Bind by the lapels and tell him like this. Isn't the Republican Party of the seventies that that he grew up with
I agree with all of that and like I could go through it like chapter and verse like why it is that, like Trump has only been made possible because of Mitch Mcconnell Trump has only support from commissioner Republicans, but I feel like binds campaign has revealed seems between the kind of intellectual leaders of progressive politics in America, meaning broadly like, like everyone from positive America to Jacobin magazine and the reality of democratic voters this to me is one of them. It's like you have to think about politics really hard to not just immediately agree with the proposition that Donald Trump is an aberration and the history of methane biotechs like ask, can anybody they will tell you stride like the end. Its obvious rightly do there's a reason, like millions of people showed up to the women's March in twenty two nineteen who
did not necessarily show up at campaign rallies and twenty fourteen mid term rewriting likely to be here and Madame nothing. Yours aim is right. I think that its often kind of alighted we're not talking about swing voters right we're talking like for the most part, we're not talking about people who used to be Republicans and who now we're talking about people who, like Democrat, We voted for Democrats, but like liked, the republican neighbors were very on board with the kind of trends, partisan Obama, rhetoric and now we're going to wait for the people who are currently in power are actively bad for America and its important for me to get involved in policy
even the donors undertook turn out turn out in the twenty eighty men terms, for example, was much higher than in the twenty fourteen. We utter stride. Democrats do poorly and running fourteen well in twenty eight in some of that is swing voters, but a lot of it is like people who voted in two thousand, eight twenty twelve twenty sixteen, but not in twenty ten. Twenty fourteen did vote in twenty eighty and, unlike that's clearly about Trump like major Mcconnell, didn't change rationed really here. I think that this that it's important to kind of not treat the backlash Biden as a metallic thing or eight lake. The reason that Jacobin is mad at Joe Biden for saying this is not actually the recent deposit deeds are out of door button for Saint that's, the kind of Mitch Mcconnell gave us Trump argument is a a strategic and tactical argument right, it rightly dear Joe Biden, you were in DC same as everybody else in two thousand and nine and two thousand and ten. You watched very carefully what the Senate did to stymie the Obama agenda
Surely you are not actually saying that those Republicans were models of bi partisanship and comedy, but then there kind of ideological arguments that the de Jacobin AIDS are making that cut that the left US intellectuals are making which is not solely about raised, but I think raised the very easy lens to put on it right lake for a law long time there's been this argument put forward by elements of the left that know that the entire conservative agenda is more speedily its being placed in a non racial way. It's talking about small government, its talking about fiscal responsibility, but that it is a natural extension of the kind of Lee Atwater politics of fifty years ago and that Donald Trump is just making.
subtext text. I think it is a bad, not split, subtext and tax. That is the key difference here is because I think the thing was trumpets that he makes everything text that was once sub, and so there is a fascinating peace earlier this week from access that was talking about how trump There are very respond very well to Elizabeth warrants policies, but not to Elizabeth Warren because they know they like the ideas that she is coming up with, because there is aids, large swathes of the cup Trump voting electorate who are not conservatives, even if they think of themselves as being conservatives, because they vote for Republicans but Republican. A conservative art the same thing, but I I think that that you, that became text with Trump. This is something has been going on for a long time. This kind of divide between republican policies and the ideas of movement conservatism are even ideological conservatism, but it took trumps things. By how like the Iraq war was a bad idea and they'll be health care for everyone, and you saw night, conservative writers and twenty fifteen twenty six seemingly, but he's not a concern.
and then you saw a lot of trump voter saying we don't fucking care ran. So I think that that's the thing that I feel it Biden is responding to is, I think, for a lot of people. There is a sense that there was a time where you, yes, Democrats lost in the twenty fourteen midterms badly, but there was a sense that, like that didn't matter, it did matter obviously, but if for people who are not us who do not think about these things all the time, there was a time where they they didn't. Think of, these things all the time to, and I think that there is a sense of Biden is like this return to stasis. Then we recognise that for a lot of people on the left is kind of like Oh, that, like that's what we need to be finally agree, great, like level having gotten woke, should not go back to sleep, though the rejection of the middle and the rejection of stasis and like you, I think that there are a lot of people for whom I obviously that's
some are, but I can also imagine people who, like there was a time where I didn't think about Mitch. Mcconnell ever went out with What do I want to put a pain in the sort of like left policy critique of Make America twenty four, teen again, don't I think I think about re swayed, because I think this is important, because it but by MS exemplifying here in this, like aberration is like what people will mark as the hashtag resistance. right in and some of the critique of resistance politics is that it is policy. Why? Shallow that link a mirror but had large structural social problems in the years, twenty fifteen. Twenty. Sixteen that simply return to that time, will not fix climate change. Child poverty, whatever another aspect of the critique, though, is a sort of critique of the poetry of Mckenna rain. Didn't I was raised
kind of leftist household and I will not describe what that was like or what it meant in terms of any particular public policy ideas that my mom and dad had. I would describe it in terms of a lot of push back against conventional narratives of american history. You can select the point of Howard sins. Buck is just that, like tonnage, terrible shit has happened in american history. And you say there is nothing aberration- all about Donald Trump being a racist right. You talk about like the bombing of the move headquarters in Philadelphia, whose anniversary, whereas today right you talk about its move bombing anniversary today, where we need the scuttle, the entire planet
they just talk about you talk about early. You talk about how you know something jades written about how how California suddenly decided gun control was important after the black Panthers, what we're arming themselves? Don't like Andrew Jackson, Donald Trump favorite President, who is an absolute genesis, air. Exactly you talk about how on Mount Rushmore, we have slave owner ass. You talk about how Harry Truman, you know not only nuke to Russia, but then he knew not decide to for no reason you talk about how, even before there were formal restrictions on immigration from Latin America, we this, like the chase, excluded, simultaneous exclusionary, but like the like operation wet back, just like just totally extra legal round ups of of mexican people, and that, like this, this is a marrow. Rain in that language is also you, may you may recall this debate kind of in some way, constricted form when Hillary Clinton respond to make responded to make Amerika great again, with America's already great,
without going exert? Definitely, people who believe that Michelle Burma was right that there hasn't been a lot of reason to be proud of America through much of its past exactly exactly, and so too. That style were to end this But the thing is important issues like this is it totally marginal view in american politics, like every person who has ever won an election as far as Beware, winds and election by talking about how America has overcome its challenges and appealing to the better angels of our nature and the high aspirations of founding principles and Bob Papa, but like a big thing among leftwing intellectuals. Is that, like all of this is wrong and that, like actually american history is soaked in bloodshed and racism in binds invocation of that Charlottesville thing.
It's the purest form of this kind of like kitsch. Americana rack, like everything in american history, was wonderful until the bad, racist, Donald Trump came, and even the example of the bad racist, Donald Trump being bad is a white can be kept. So I think that that is that the matter has laid out a very kind of compelling well like historic, graphical argument, for why the aberration argument is wrong. I think There is a that that there's something I would love to see more explicit grappling with within this debate that I think, is the strongest argument for the aberration, which is that in the kind of short from history, the political history like it's very tempting to point to you know, the kind of illicit statements that lay Atwater made about like. Will you can't? a black and welfare, that kind of thing to talk about how the
it isn't debate. We were having four years ago where the fundamental question was the size of government and not for men against whom that government was being weapon eyes? Yes, that debate does have intellectual routes in racial politics, but it was not an explicitly racial debate. It was not a debate, who aren't steeped in a half century of political history would have necessarily recognizes racial debate. It could have been. It was invoked in vain, in ways that lake tapped into that, but even the people who were having that have to do it for them didn't necessarily understand like. Oh, I like this due to talks about small government because, and he says more government. He definitely means no help for black people. Fear does appear to be a difference between subtext and text. Here like there's a reason that p are more concerned about hate crime.
against Non White Americans now than they were four years ago. It's not that lake the threat was exactly equal and white people are just more work to it. Now it's because there is a feeling that talking about this have explicitly serves in both mean effect there reason that Lake Richard Spencer is out here saying: Charlottesville could not have happened if Donald Trump, weren't elected and part of that is that Richard Spencer wants to think once delay portray himself as being on the right side of history but lake. It's also true that that kind of return, go opening up of. We are going to make it ok to explicitly or two more explicitly talk about how there are real Americans and their non white people and has to never. The TWAIN shall meet like that. Does have impact society beyond policy and say, I think it's kind of important to distinguish what has America been in the past with what do we consider it? Ok to talk about in the present? What are they
tons of acceptable political debate, and in that regard, maybe it's not. Wrong to consider Donald Trump to be operational, compare damage, because I think that there has been a lot of conversation about, moving of the overture window. I did this idea that, like Morse, it's not necessarily acceptable, because you will notice that racist tend to catch their views with racial realism or just really wanting getting very pent up about how now? I'm uh listen to arguments and then, but then their arguments are about like race like you did, but I also think that there is something to be said for four: how something can be both factually true and politically false, because I, bite. It recognises as well as anyone, especially now going back as people kind of reexamined his own history with opposition to bussing and discussions are, it is factually correct,
that there is a long, long, bloody history of racism in this country and its also politically correct- and I mean it as the term as in correct for politicians who want to be elected, that you kind of have to argue that we ve moved pass, that new saw Obama doing that very effectively in two thousand to two thousand. Seventy thousand eight people remember during the election. There is kind of the Jeremiah Right, Brouhaha and Obama's response largely had be. The arc of history is long, but it bends towards justice and obviously a lot of terrible things have happened. What we're getting better and there's always improvement, but there is also ways to work and how Obama attempted to square that circle is so fascinating. Looking back now because its it was done in a way that was totally understandable. The time it made. No one happy fascinating. When you talk to conservatives, never let you is a race better and you're like then you taught the liberals and he didn't talk about risk. Nothing really
what to tell you, but I also think that there is something to be said. or how Trump is not an aberration, even with that going back to Pat, be cannons run in eighteen. Ninety, two to kind of how Paul ran in two thousand eight, and I may alone on this particular hobbyhorse. But I think we can learn a lot from about you how trump any kind of the view of trumpets them from run Paul's campaigns, but I also think that there is a sense that Biden is attempting to do something politically. That does not entirely work factually when those are two different things. So let us take a break, we'll talk about it if you like, basically anyone listening to this right now, I'm willing to bet that you are you're dealing with stress, maybe there's. Kind of it like an overwhelming amount- or maybe it's more like a low but steady, drumbeat background stress, no matter how you are experiencing stress, it's likely effect
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does Joe Biden fail to recognise the procedural radicalism of the modern Republican Party right and that's what I think, like the pod save guys yet really geared up about, and in that case I mean I don't know, I don't know Joe Biden, I have to say, like their criticism of binding is so obviously true and also Joe Biden was the fucking vice. President. It cannot be. The Joe Biden doesn't actually recognised the validity of that critique. Also, Joe Biden is a competent politician. You don't run for president by talking of How much Mcconnell has like abused Senate process right, like that's, just look better politics. As far as I'm concerned, then, there's like this like racial grand arc of history were. I think it is not clear like where Joe Biden stands on this, but again it is not surprising that a candidate for president is not running on the basis.
Of like revisionist accounts of american history. This is like Biden, is running for president. The way everybody else has ever run for president an interesting thing is that a handful of twenty twenty Democrats appear to have tried it in this I go to court african american voters by hang on, like leftist critique, of conventional narratives of american history and it doesn't. Figure. We seem to be working. Life pens on working upon whom, because I think that the o f we're talking about african american voters, there is a difference between. Me as an african american voter and my late grand, There has never been american voter because my late grant you win Biden. I think this is a couple weeks ago he was like you, Jim Crow is on its way back to get something to me. I like What the hell are you talking about and then to Miley? Dear the grandmother that something she's like yes, your user, but it everybody who I know
understands deepen their bones, that what white writers intellectual say is not reflective of the mass opinion of White America right, but they sometimes seem to be confused and think that what Africa Eric and writers and intellectual say, is representative of mass african american opinion when, like normal people are not as politicized and geared up as writers and intellectuals are like, regardless of of other stuff like that, but the third, the third critique of by the one where I think there is factors. City to write is just like complacency about the state of american public policy in Barack Obama, second term right and there is just a cause like adult human beings functioning eyes and brains. Who do care a lot about politics. Just disagree about this right.
like one view is that America in the second Obama term was society of knowledge historically, but like right, then, A society marked by hideous love economic inequality and massively unsustainable environmental degradation. That is desperately in need of and he centres put it a political revolution that would somehow sweep aside the structural barriers to whatever whatever, and you know, Dick. I would, but whatever the green Deal people want. You know, d, carbonized economy and a twelve year span, all that stuff and in another point, which, like Buzz Barack Obama's viewpoint, was Hillary Clinton viewpoint, I think, is Joe Biden viewpoint. Is that like not that, like Amerika, had no prob forms at that point in time, but like those pretty good, you have like a group alike, classy smart people run in the country and
was really needed, was her everyone to sort o clock for them and they have done a good job. They re and an American Seward professionally involved in politics. Could sleep at night not worried about the state of their country? Exactly you? I think I think that these are two like these are pretty well tied together. Actually because you know, I think, the the question of already writers and intellectuals, representative of the visa, the publicly there's a little bit of relative. And to the ideas of the kind of activists left in the context of a political pressure of a democratic primary that may not be true and we're talking about like other forms of political debate, because is- and this is something that I think I've been familiar with in terms of Tina as an that's different from black voters, for reasons I'm to get into a bit but I'm used to this effect in terms of thing, about yeah, ok, filipino activists who are going you be like way.
in on candidates during a democratic primary. Our problem to the left of the latino voters, who are gonna, trout and a general election in November. But the people are going to be knocking on doors, are closer the views of the lithuanian activists organ be way and therefore, if you want to build a ground operation, if you want to actually succeed in a primary, by mobilizing people to vote for you. You are going to need to appeal to the people who are to the left to the people you ultimately want to reach. Now the thing is heavily about is that it is not a traditionally high propensity voter bit right it is not true of african american vote has yet specifically ever Gunnar and women who are extreme. Good at turning themselves out to the poles without needing fifteen people knocking on their doors. So so I think that there is. There is a relevant difference there. In terms of you know the black women who are going to show up and vote in, you know the South Carolina primary there now
going to be pouring through pages and pages of web based publications trying to figure out who they should vote for them they have worn feelings for Joe Button. But lake that gets into the idea they are in favour of Joe Biden, because they remember fondly a time when they didn't necessarily have to care about politics like above and beyond what they were already going to do. They didn't have to go to bed every night worrying about the state of America, for real, lake above and beyond what their use to worry about. Also the concepts of politics writ large, because I think that if you talk to a lot of black women about specific issues, yo, if you talk about schools, if you talk about black maternal mortality, which is an abject scourge in this country, if you talk about health care, you can use to basically talk about the same issues that got suburban.
Women to the polls and twenty eighteen. Those are similar issues that african american women have been responded to in voting on for decades, but I think this I'd. I think that there is a sense that politics as a structure, not individual political issues, but politics is a structure, is something that I think there are some voters, black and white and non white together. Are you people care about individual political issues, but people do not want to have to care about? politics right, and I think that there is something to be said for we don't know. Obviously, yet what will come to pass with regard to this competition among democrats- and you are hearing from a lot of black women who are real into a coma Harris who have really responded to her and also all those with warrants campaign doing, the most specific outreach to African Americans talking about issues that are of key importance to african amount.
But I think what we saw we're going back to twenty sixteen or you saw Bernice Campaign kind of fall apart in the south, a largely because our eel reaching out to african american women, as african american women was something it was very difficult for. The Sanders campaigns do because there is, as I did like. Well, we all have problems and these problems. Can be solved by a political revolution where african american women, like that's generally, not how this works for us. But I think that that something that I'll be interested to see moving forward, where Biden campaigns ability to reach out on specific political issues, because without the only mentioned earlier that he doesn't really ever were. Basically, he is running early on I'm Joe Biden, I'm not trump You remember who I am, I'm fine and look. It's kind of I'm fine. Twenty twenty, three, the fascinating! about this is like we were talking earlier about the kind of hashtag resistance. The people who were necessarily at peak political engagement and
getting them to to deal with the question. Were. They overly asleep, rang pre twenty sixteen times the question with liable democratic voters, whether that's african american women or some other block, is people who have normally seeing the Democratic Party is the party that is fighting for their interests, do you or is it a good thing strategically speaking, to get them to acknowledge that those people weren't action? really doing a very good job of fighting for them that they were kind of weak, that they were kind of too far to the right that they were actually The reason that there are these big structural problems is because the p who you ve always thought of in politics, is the good guys were actually any good. At least I think, speaks to the the left haunting fear yes, not about Joe Biden but like about a mare with, which we just like people are very geared up about Donald Trump, but actually are not passionate about left
Now, article car, as they are hoping that Donald Trump will essentially by accident. oh wow geared up one thing, but I just sitting there. I think about all the time in part. Existing very telling is the incredible enduring popularity of lead, Hogan in Marriott, Maryland, Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, Phil Scott in Vermont, Christine you in New Hampshire, because these are all states that we know to be left her than average right. There's a lot of stuff that will fly in Maryland, that won't fly in Ohio or even necessarily Michigan. and Larry Hogan is ike- is a nice. Like he's out a monster, he doesn't do any crazy racist stuff. He doesn't have like flagrant corruption, like he's smart, competent public official, but
he's a republican right like this sense, in which these are my right and left open, and it's not even like he's. A Republican is particularly moderate on social issues that he's a Republican who is making a big deal out of a tough on crime. That way, but I mean just even regarding you. Don't need like a big, specific critique of right and just to say that here, the custodian of the status quo yet if you wanted some big progressive idea that you thought might fly in Michigan, but you weren't quite sure, but really I could find Maryland right. Guys like me, Oh and solid boat, like Larry, hoping to standing in your way. Larry Hogan is not going to raise taxes to make public services more general strike in the voters of Maryland of a bluer than average state seem quite happy with that state of affairs Scrite. If Larry Hogan started doing crazy, racist, corrupt stuff, he would become unpopular,
Democrats could beat him and that would unlock a progressive agenda. Then the voters of Maryland do not seem to particularly care for right, and so the possibility is that trump we'll be beaten by a Democrat. Who then doesn't have a democratic set at or is himself not that passions progressive and from the standpoint of the median voter. Everything will now be fine, but right that, like you, won't have crazy tweets in the White House. You won't be pushing a hideously unpopular republican tax bell, but you also won't be pushing a green new deal or anything they gets the tempts. The the backlash you won't re run two thousand nine, two thousand ten that you'll just like have some cordial media,
and it's not. The Joe Biden is deluded any thinks that by having whisky with much Mcconnell he's gonna get Mcconnell to agree to a huge progressive agenda is that by not trying to push a huge pressing with gender, he admits Mackay can have some nice drinks. They can agree that, like this is America, and we are proud of our flag and like say that racism, is wrong in the sense that Nazis marching is bad for not necessarily in the sense that school desegregation is important where I can get in the car, sir, all races or structural racism, but just kind of like book. They had a bipartisan criminal justice for bill, but right, but like the left's concern. Is that, like a mirror might be really happy with twenty twenty one by an administration and actually, where Joe Biden getting into the rays is like. to raise these issues to the fore in a way that it wasn't previously alike to finally- and I think that I personally deserve all the cookies for not turning this into an immigration episode,
But finally does the indirect way. Once we stop caging baby is the right exactly exactly like, there's been you know. I have certainly voice this on the pod cas. There has been a certain amount of frustration among, like the immigration nerds out there, that, with the admirable exceptional, Castro. Nobody is put out an immigration agenda and the twenty twenty field and like from the conversations that I've had with the people who would pushing Democrats to put out twenty twenty agenda you know it still early like we're not. We are not really going super hard on trying to get people to commit to specific policies and You know. Part of that is the fear that if they push people too far to the left, there will be some backlash. Part of it is also lake. In you know, they're talking about it, they? They gather that there is something that a democratic president can do. We can fill in the dots later that the risk of that is exactly that. You're going to have a president who is going to
It will now Donald Trump isn't didn't anymore, we're not caging babies and that the extent to which you know, even the people who have been put on court, woke to politics in they. Twenty seventeen twenty eighteen were horrified by things that were typical. Of immigration enforcement under russian Obama, like those things, could continue, because it's not something that has been super theorized among the democratic base but enter Joe Biden Joe Biden in making a point of saying the Democratic he has gone too far left on issues, including immigration. Some of his early statements about lake in trying to portray the link legalization for recipients is, as like, the centre, the the median position in the Democratic Party
whereas in which is kind of moving the debate on legalization substantially to the right. There is an a possibility that this debate of what does a post trump immigration agenda, look like will be met, fleshed out, because Joe Biden is in the rays kind of forcing it into a little more contrast. Then it would be if everybody in the race, we're just cruising along saying. This is not who we are, and then you know all the way up to the inauguration on January twenty first, twenty twenty one had never bothered to articulate who we should be instead right, and I think that there is a sense and I'm God I can remember which one of you geniuses brought this up earlier. But this idea that, like for the left there like ok, you can take your opposition of trap and turn that to pro left policy is kind of like examined my ride. Like hey, we heard you oppose Trump
Have you read in Brown, candies stare like that how this is going to work for the majority of Americans and you? I think that that's why you ve seen you too much the dismay of the on screen, walled and others of my kind of bill crystal showing up and cut of mainstream left, leaning media as being kind of you, I'm a conservative, but I oppose trump and not really you. I've had my I've had conversations with bill crystal about these issues, and he is basically been like? Oh no, I'm still a conservative, I'm really proud of the work that we did not to help get George W Bush into office. In that kind of these ideas, like no no conservative. This is the problem here. There's no issue with that. It's just that Trump isn't a conservative and that's why things are bad, but you we ve talked a lot and I thought a lot.
This idea of this idealized centre of Europe that you could bring together Yo Resistance, liberals and in Anti Trump Republicans and come up with kind of like. Well, we know what we oppose, and that means that we know what we stand for, which the boiler front yes, but which is not exactly true, but it sounds really good and I think that that something that you're starting to see a little bit from kind of bite it works not so much that he is appealing to centralism. I think it's he's appealing to the idea of centralism and the idea of centralism is very popular. Even while people hate centralism, I mean I, I think, there's things people hate missing, scruple, don't hate right. I think it a thing that activists on both sides tend to confuse is that american society, matters right now, but for a number of years his exhibited a high level of distrust of politicians and the political scene.
stop and win your politicians are out of power. It is easy for activists to mistake that distrust of the political system for a demand for radical policy change. Wait when oftentimes, it's exactly the opposite, that its precise because there is so little confidence in the political system, people are quite suspicious of? bored reform schemes, whether that's now the government is going to drastically overhaul the health care better or now. I promise you that this corporate tax cod is gonna to higher wages, all of- things. I am indebted to drag it back to immigration right, like the premises of like the twenty thirteen immigration compromise Bell right. It depends critically on you, believing that the politicians who have been elected to weapon
and you in some sense like know what they are to get everything and we they got in the room and hash this out that, like what's his name's extra, border security idea have end Corker Hove in that, like Corcoran Hove, in that, like the stuff they fought for, is really going to address, Border huckses concerns, but then also that, like the Democrats right and like the let you know, members that, like they're, really delivering like on their reform, promises and and and things like that and people- in a low trust environment or much friendlier to the kind of bi partisanship that is a bipartisan agreement to not do things than to a bipartisan agreement to like have a grand bargaining, and so I think, that's like the unpopular centralism is like we're. Gonna get enough room together, cut social security to the grand bargains on everything, but I do think like the popular
it is like masterpieces under Charlie Baker, bridges for not doing any re. I mean I, I would go so far as to say that the distrust of politicians in politics is a distrust of discord, Ray There is an extent to which, obviously, if you dislike discord and means that your cool at the start quote, which means you're, probably a winner under the status quo, but the the matter is that the electorate, especially some higher certain higher propensity segments of the electorate, are doing? Ok under the status quo, and you know the fundamental problem for Democrats. In general and Democrats to the left to the rest of the party in particular? Are if, because Listen you want to build a coalition of the Disan friend used in disempowered. How on earth do you turn that into a coalition that is going to show up on mass defeat. Doing you know concerns of gerrymandering in the house and of the
you know, in fact of the Senate, that, like Montana, voters simply have greater representation, the New York voters in the Senate and How do you deal with that in a way that leads to political success? Yes, no, I mean it's, it's a very. I think it's like. It's a tough is a tough time in general for progressive, who, I think, our feeling I don't want to I go to all in, unlike Joe Biden, is riding high in the polls right now, because a freezing early is is, there is a very ample chance that that that he will go down, but I do as Russia. Something that I do think is true is that in the winter, these sort of lame duck a winter after the twentieth team, I was really a beer. Is gonna, go all the way into in the winter of artists content. Ah, yes, in which there was a kind of a ball of leftist self confidence that was built on a mix of Democrats,
doing well in the twenty eight in mid terms. Lord, scale popular mobilization, a shower returned to the left in the intellectual discourse and then a very hide media profile for words, actually quite small number of left wing, Freshmen House democratic swayed, and what we are seeing at the current phase of the primary is a pull back to a pint of reality and like that's a reality in which democratic dont have very good odds of securing a majority in the Senate, in which the narrative of we're going to turn the clock back to how it was before Trump seems reason we resonant with people, even if it if binding wines of going down. I guess this is what I say it will be either because of concerns about his age concerns about his actual performance. As a politician under
mining the elect ability, narrative or some stuff from his record that differentiates him from Obama, but its clear that they, like basic Obama, Nostalgia pitch like goes pretty well and that the like we need. A revolution is not like something that is obviously true to people about happiness. I beseech you to many people it s not like most people and in politics you you're gonna need most people It feels like you, don't even of hours in the day to get everything done, might because you're missing out on three of them were those to me. I was up how he fell into a deep dark abyss that opens up amongst which between work out those three hours to all the productive time we miss out on thanks to at home, distractions, disorganization fatigue. It's no wonder the days future work should work with clear up, it does look up, is a flexible productivity platform, the wings or you work at one place. That's all you chats apps docks and ass. One centralized
like mission control companies like Goober and Google use click up to make their days more productive, managed projects, people and goals more effectively, four teams of all sizes industries cook up to pleasingly. features at one thousand plus integrations must have, or anyone wanting to track manage intact, They worked in one place, you're, always back with clear up trade free. Today, click up a dot com, slash weeds This episode is brought, you buy fender, football is back and the best bet you can make is downloading the fan, dual Sports Bookshop, it doesn't matter if new to gambling or an old pro fan. Dual has something for everyone and as an offence, you'll sports betting partner of the NFL. You know your bet, you're, safe, there's also four been a better time to use. Fan do because right now, you'll get up to one thousand dollars back. If your first bet doesn't win, you can- turn a small wager into a big payday with the same game. Parlay that just sign up with the problem
Spotify place. Your first bet risk free on Fan dual sports book down, fend off today, twenty one plus and present in Pennsylvania, first online, real money wager only refund who does not withdrawal side, credit that expires in fourteen days, restrictions apply, see terms at sports booked out fan. Dual dotcom gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. Have for you today. Macro economic effects of debt relief, consumer bankruptcy. Protections of the great recession is by Adrian O clarity. Will Dhabi and Paul Goldsmith, Pink, come and visit paper. I came across well reporting out a different Joe Biden story about the two thousand five bankruptcy bill. Other one, No, this paper is not about the two thousand five bankruptcy now, nor is it about Joe Biden, but it is about bankruptcy in June
Ma Am, and so basically there looking at the fact that some states have more generous bankruptcy laws than others, which means you know to begin to financial trouble and a state with generous bankruptcy. You can sort of walk away from a lotta your debts, it's not like free and clear. The fact that you filed for bankruptcy is gonna, make it harder for you to get loans in the future, but in lacks bankruptcy. States like you, can really stick your creditors and just kind of like move on I'll, be it without getting a small business alone, two years and rode in tighter bankruptcy laws. You know your future. Wages will be garnished. You might have to like sell your house, it's it's. Creditors, get more money back right and the basic you know thesis of sort of creditor friendly bankruptcy laws. Is people be able to get credit more easily in states that will be
four grounds good for the economy in the long term. The case for lacks bankruptcy is it's a kind of social insurance right. If something bad happens to you, and particularly good news, bankruptcies virgin there cried this unemployment? Insurance is health? Insurance has a specific thanks for bankruptcy is like look near and financial trouble you away from your debts, so they trinity. MAC economically. How does this insurance work and they find it works quite well, I'm states with generous bankruptcy terms. I did a lot better in the great recession because people could get out from under their debts and like go back to spending their income on buying stuff? I was not familiar with the argument in which this paper is. Is nay itself, so I think it's worth spelling out a little, but basically the argument as part of the problem The great recession was, in the two thousand the housing market collapse is, which means the valley Everyone goes down and credit becomes less available. So people rational
responded to that by spending less money, which then had bad downstream effects for employment, because there is less of a market for people to Lake remain employed selling things that, like that's kind of the backstory that fills in what talking about right that lake. You can understand that action between bankruptcy and employment, as if people are less constrained in their spending ability there. Doing more to prop up the local economies where they are. Something that I think is interesting here is the way that this paper is structured, isn't just talking about kind of the formal value of I was able to keep more of my assets because more of them fit under the cap of my states, Ah then would have I been in Genoa neighbouring state like if been in Illinois instead of New York, that it also encompasses the idea that there is an informal benefit that stuff right that like your creditors are going to hound. You less in us.
where they know they can get less out of you, and so the vit. Looking at him, men as well, it might seem indirect, is a good way to get at ok. Does this bank See cap, not only you know like what not only what are the effects for Blue actually go into bankruptcy proceedings, but does it help people in negotiations with creditors, whether they actually go into battle you're not weigh Emily, exactly and- and you know that the basic logic of this so the they should have to differentiate effects on tradable and non tradable employees Sweden, tradable and uneasy living before me. I would say there is a growing economic emphasis on this. So if you work in aid in a tradable sector classically, that's like a factory right that makes durable goods and its tradable, because your cars could be shipped abroad. But it's also tradable in the sense that your cars
heat with imported cars from abroad, right people used to talk about manufacturing right, but they ve shifted to tradable, because, for example, if you work at Facebook, that's also tradable right. Facebook operates internationally. Big banks operating a tradable sector or financial services kind of flow across state lines than other things are not tradable. Add this sort of classics of this are like health, education, restaurants, right where you are providing services to the low population am, I never know exactly how this works in bank for micro detail in some boundary cases like what we do it VOX is like tradable in principle, but not really traded in practice. Right, like our digital media content,
Obviously you can download it in foreign markets, but, like really, if you look at the way the business works is entirely. U S focused and like People who sponsor this show are like not trying to target listeners in Ireland, even though irish people are. I please invite you to tell us yet. The Irish voted totally advertise on this. But yes, but like broadly speaking, like manufacturing software, fancy services are Fraid of all education, health care, food beverage service and, like you know, haircuts stuff like that are non tradable, it. Sometimes he eats good as a sort of got check on some of these economic trends right and so the basic logic of this bankruptcy thing is when
both are not being hounded by debt collectors. They have a little bit more money in their pockets to spend. I you know like at the local restaurant right, which creates employment in the restaurant sector, but then also the income like recycles. It means that the waiters at the restaurant are getting more tips and like they can get their hair, cod and and so on and so forth, but the tradable sector is not impacted by these kind of flows, rightly whither. The car fact. he shuts down or not has nothing to do with the local. I mean it's a is a cause of local economic outcomes, but not a consequence of them, so they find that generous bankruptcy helps with non traded. Employment does not help with traded employment, each I think, is like supposed to increase your confidence that this isn't just like goofy statistic, I think this has all fear the other important thing with that with confidence, that they show that there is no difference between states with generous bankruptcy laws in this with less generous bankruptcy laws, pre twenty seven.
That, like this is a matter of there is greater, or lesser moral hazard. As a general rule, it's a question of when something when, nothing happens. That makes it a lot more likely for people go into bankruptcy that what you know are there then differential impacts. Yet my question is also: what What does this mean for other types near? We ve done a lot of conversations about student loans, forgiveness and some of those arguments is like you could take the money that you were paying your student loans with and pay money for. Something else then isn't yellow awful and terrible and student loans. That related, but I'd, be fascinated to see how this data corresponds to kind of just general, that the concept of debt relief more generally right, I think
links to the themes you ve been tongue met about serve complacency way. If you ever read into the depths of this paper right you, you will see that, like the key elements of the model have to do with the fact The country was in a severe recession that the FED had set interest rates to zero, but was not interested in pursuing additional aggressive measures. Right Think that a lesson that we will come to learn once we read like all the white papers and whatever, is that the depths of the great session created an environment in which a lot of left wing economic policy ideas are good and true right and that, like broad debt relief, for example, boosted economic outcomes, if we had just written off student debt or if we hadn't made the two thousand five change, they made it hard
two to eliminate. The country would have been better off right. If we had let more underwater homeowners walk away from their debts, we would have been better off. If more states have lacks bankruptcy laws, we would have been better off and its a coincidence that, like a whole cohort of young people, for whom this was the formative Experience of their lives now have like got Laval, like leftist view of the economy right, but we are moving out of that work. Into a world in which bore convention, all types of considerations will pioneers we're saying they're right. They find that before two thousand seven like this effect was not present right and there was no benefit to just having generous bankruptcy terms, and we are going to be me whether were added this year and I'll take the next year, whatever it is a little hard to say, but like we're, gonna be in an economy soon, where it's like
boring annoying intro economics textbook is much more applicable and like there's, no like magic, free lunch where you can just let people off their debts and it creates extra jobs, we're not doing jubilee, two thousand and twenty, probably not having the time for it at the time for the poor have worse, it really was two thousand nine in my opinion, yeah. You know it's very easy to see revolutions in retrospect. The reason that twenty thirteen immigration bill is going to be so fascinating in retrospect, as the twenty thirteen up appears, now have been the high water mark for how settled the unauthorized immigrant population was like it's always easier, see what the right time for big change would have banned, and that is America. Ok, so
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Transcript generated on 2021-09-12.