Dara and Matt explain the situation at the border now that the caravan has finally arrived. References and further reading: Li Zhou explains the liberal blowback against Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer Vox’s piece on the shutdown negotiations The weird outlet mall at the border Dara’s article on the asylum bottleneck A New York Times piece on the current conditions in Tijuana The Washington Post breaks down the “Remain in Mexico” policy Dara outlines what we still don't know about “Remain in Mexico”
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
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with this hello. Welcome to another sort of the weeds on the box. Media puts US network. I met replace his here with their land at Jane is, I believe, on a train that damage Massachusetts. I'm looking forward to ask her if she went to Buenos Sano, you know it's not tough. Please keep email me your thoughts, lesser Massachusetts, burrito fans,
but there's a lot more news stuff happening, but were policy people flash?
This is one of those days where it we recorded upon cast about what is happening in the Miller investigation. It would probably be our data
at a time at eight year, who knows, might have seven crazy twice at any moment, so when
ass. We had cast it about the caravan. The cabin was quite distant from the: U S border and appeared to have been interjected into the discourse, primarily for electioneering purposes. Since that time, the election has happened, caribbean talk, quieted down quite substantially and now a sort of back at a lower ebb. The Cameroon is less present,
media today than it was six weeks ago, but it is a chapter v, much more relevant to like: U S, policy making
For that matter, like? U S, regional relations, yes, but now things are actually have rights that are worth paying attention due for non political reasons. I was seeing on television this morning, there's like appears to be a large tent city in Tijuana witches right by
U S, Mexico Border and we ve met uses. In fact, why why there is a tent city, the air, because it is of people who have arrived at the border and who are ral waiting to be so it and do so. So yes, oh, what what is happening? I mean I guess we have. We have
seeing the like promised in a vast military engagement as our brave troops battle the caravan but the
we'll have have gotten to the border, say are asking to be let in and they are not being let it. I gather right right, so so,
to do a kind of when last we left are the care and like the
estimates of how long it was going to take the caravan to get to the U S border before the election were based on the fact that they were going very very slowly through Southern Mexico because they were mostly walking there were efforts by mexican police defective, not physically, pull them off, as far as I know, at least, but to interdict any flatbed trucks that we're taking people through, they couldn't successfully get buses to take them through, so they were moving so relatively slowly ones
got to Mexico City. However, they waited Mexico City for several days and then dispersed in waves, but many
them were able to use flatbed trucks and buses. So the first wave of caravan members about hundred algae B, T caravan members who had kind of gotten, you know a certain amount of special protection because they were particularly concerned about their treatment on the road got into two on about
two weeks ago. So I guess the weekend after the election. No, I guess a little bit before that cause. The first serious wave of caravan folks got two Tijuana about two weeks ago at that point.
many caravan members do not appear to have understood that they were not going to immediately just be granted asylum
the. U S there are stored
he's coming out in the mexican press that the caravan organizers have not been super forthright with people about this, that they're kind of using them as political ponds. One mexican human rights lawyer says that he and his people offered transportation to caravan members, but were telling them like that. It's not a great!
I am to go to the: U S, Mexico border things are pretty tense. There, you're not gonna, get an immediately and were then frozen out by caravan organizers in private,
from talking to any of the other travellers bed upon.
Did you wanna? They realised that be we'd to get legally through. The port of entry at San Pietro was even before the thousands of caravan member started showing up about two months. There were already thousands of you
in saying this he drew a lot of the shelters were already close to fall by the time the caravan member started getting in. So they were waiting for a couple of weeks and converted sport
complex that was turned into a temporary shelter that got flooded a couple of days ago. It was
not a great seen. The government of Tijuana has now opened a nut,
facility. That's a further DR! It's about a twenty five minute drive from the? U S, Mexico Border, but it is apparently a more solid place to hold several thousand people than the sports Complex one.
is but there in a holding pattern, and so last Sunday some of the caravan members organised a march to go.
Physically right up to the? U S, Mexico Border and to demand asylum or to meet with a representative of the Trump administration, both of which were asks. The word just not going to get granted and what ended up coming out of that are the images that you ve, probably seen of
bill attempting to cross into the you ass of. U S, border patrol agents, responding with tear gas and projectiles, it is pretty well established at some rocks were thrown. It is not super well established what exactly the circumstances were in which anyone was firing, tear gas. Obviously, the tear gas ended up affecting a lot of people, including women and children, who were necessarily
Rushing the border that tension wasn't just the product of o the caravan is coming in the. U S is amassing to stop it. It was the product of a group of people who have been exhausted, who have been walking for ages who finally got to what they
was their destination, were then told that they were going to be in a holding pattern for several months and had no idea what was next for them and were reacting in frustration by holding this march
to set the stage. You know some of this in his people. Don't I beg the geography of the? U S, Mexico borders, often
that. Well explain your in these stories. You know so so
to honour, is a pretty big city and in North Western Mexico right up against.
against the border, any Tijuana, Santiago, our kind of a twin city, yet
essentially a Botz, the suburbs of Sandy Egg leg. You can take the San Diego light rail, basically to
I have done. I didn't ask NASH yeah, I'm an artist
I mean belatedly in terms of some of the broader politics in the United States. Right like this is California ride said this is the the liberal part of the borders on this is where you will have politicians who would never dream of giving a dime Donald Trump for his border wall and is also where you have a giant border,
oh yes, and have had one for a very, very, very, very long time is gonna reference to the famous lost episodes that yeah
So ok. I guess we actually have to explain this, because I dont think that we ve we mean
I've gotten into this in a pod cast that wasn't taped it the Texas Tribune Festival and then loss to the sense of time, but the very first kind of border wall. Ish things were built in San Diego to want to because
it's a lot harder in urban areas to catch some one after they ve crossed the border. It there it's much easier for them to like hiding houses or dashed downsize streets or that kind of thing, the places where it's basically wilderness. It's much
here too spot and apprehend somebody after they ve crossed so mean this. I got this big outlet more like right on the: U S, side of the border and there's a parking lot.
A binding them all and then a law.
like you because you are giving it see you can see like the billboards on the other side, Rapporteur, you cannot really see across because it's just this big built up
seeing. But it's because you have a lot to me,
can city on one side of the wall, and you have an American well developed suburb on the other side of the wall, and so have people came through there's no like desert
you can track them across like there's no bright excise duties, we would catch them in the narrow, your rights and lots of places where they could duck into or like basements where they could hide if they
and you'd have to be rifling through Americans home is a business is constantly to find them. So this
A long before, like the wall was a second graphic constructed american politics that it was the Clinton administration.
an error rate. Yeah, maybe even have been early enough, that it was each w, but definitely Clinton was kind of the bulk. Of that it was some of the very first border barriers were requisite
landing mats from Vietnam, anyone, but what they have now, at least what what I saw. I mean it adheres pretty closely to the champion concept of a big, beautiful, concrete yeah. It definitely looks like it's a big.
We can barrier that in the middle of that barrier is the kind of big beautiful door. These any see report of entry is by far the busiest port of entry in the. U s they just opened up,
fancy new facility. They were when I toward their last month. They were so pleased that, after all the construction, they finally had all their lanes of pedestrian in vehicle traffic open again, so that they could facilitate legal entries back and forth wedding and then a mortgage alone of legitimate tourism and commerce right comes here again, precisely because there's some it's so built up on both sides of the border. There are a lot of Americans live right by the border lot of Mexicans olive right by the border. There are lots of people who, like that you know the with all the disruptions. This week, the University of California Santiago had to put out a statement saying if you're, a binational student
goes here, but lives in Tijuana like we understand it's gonna be hard for you to get to class right now. Right so I mean so, though, the duel,
features of this closure like one like the borders, very fortified, he prayed.
there's a huge wall. There's a big point of entry. There's lots of people at the port of entry,
They are more than capable of like repelling this kind of assault. At the same time, its leg is an important part of the by national economy over their ride so like having it shut down. It's a different situation. I guess from they like big, open Sandy Texas Border Zone, where there is no war. Now, if there is talk of doing it, also like two point, eight billion troops to make sure nobody can cross. They are so doesn't change
thing I mean it does for four for the troops is up in this is like a big regular like functioning part by MRS eighty. Ninety eight warnings have to understand that, like Donald Trump tweets very frequently about oh,
might have to shut down the border. We will not hesitate to shut down the borders like Donald Trump is he's, probably not
only person in the administration who
a kind of want that to happen are certainly doesn't appear to see it as a worst case scenario, but pretty much every body on the
round around San Diego Tijuana does not believe that shutting down the port of entry to legitimate traffic on both sides is a good idea.
The amount of lost business you deal with when you shut down a port of entry that big or even you know, cause hours. Long wait times is massive. You end. That means you
business matter you. That means you get in the community.
Both sides mad at you. It's just not a great situation. That said, a lot of people in the Trump administration got very rattled by the footage of caravan members entering Mexico from Guatemala, and there was a concern that there was going to be kind of that, like mass push to just swarm v,
port of entry and try to us just get through by having masses of people there. So they are a little bit more willing to shut down means of traffic, and there were a lot of training exercises in both send you see Dro and El Paso.
In the run up to the caravan showing up and on Sunday when the March was happening, they did
based on the perception that there might be an attempt to rush aid that one of the vehicle weight
like there's this massive multi lay in a highway just going through into the port of entry or people in our process through they shut down the port entirely on both sides for several hours which
their pictures of just like this multi lean hiring it like a tumble we'd going across their because it's just
This massive infrastructure that isn't being used mexican federal police for extreme,
the involved in this the tear gas- these appear exasperated some takes about its ban for international use, which it is that's true.
And with this is an attack from the? U S on mexican soil, which it they do it.
We have launched your gas canisters that went pretty far into the Mets inside. Therefore, this is a! U
attack on Mexico.
it's certainly not something that the mexican government is going to be taken to an international court of law anytime soon will put it that way, because this really was both the
and Mexico as governments working together to prevent a group of people from crossing from one country into the other,
we have little time the mexican authorities are trying to keep the border open. They don't want
and the american authorities to feel that they are about to be overwhelmed by people rushing the border and therefore it only
go get shot down by trying to cooperate, unlike keeping the caravan people corralled waiting in the sort of metaphorical line. Yeah I mean the role of the mexican government here is a complicated one. It's one we're gonna get into a little bit more later in the episode that it is generally safe to say that the mexican government does not feel
particular responsibility for each of its not taking a human rights approach to that. Just write like they're, not going
It is our job to make sure that the rights of caravan members are protected. They are not mexican nationals. There are
lots of local government actors who are very freaked out about the prospect of having to take care of thousands of people, the mayor,
do you wanna, has kind of
You know use this as a platform to do
some engage in some frumpy in populism and
We complain that he
it's more money from the mexican national government. In order to take care of these thousands of female its
here to say right now. What we're dealing with is the efforts of governments to enforce a border between them.
the efforts of migrants to cross from one to the other,
it's kind of weird how we got to what happened on Sunday Sunday. Of course it does. What is less was several days ago we haven't had the same kind of tensions.
In the area that we had on Sunday, that's not to say that they won't erupt in the future, because again
still thousands of people waiting what we have
I've seen in the last few days, the
of this new, you know the law.
temporary facility. There have been concerns about shelters, just being totally tapped out of money. There are
these ongoing conditions, concerns that are going to continue to affect these people. As long as there are thousands of people waiting on that side of the border, let's take a break, and unless talk about the back story to asylum at the ports of interests
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What is evidently not happening here? I mean business
fixing a boy you are allowed to cross from Mexico into the United States. Rightly demand is a crime to do that. You don't we eat legitimate purpose and
like that, but one way this good girl is that she show up you caravan. You made your hallway to deal on. There's this. You know great big door in the big beautiful wall. You show up step across the border and the authorities say where's your visa and they, like, I don't, have a visa, but I need asylum in the United States and then they take you
to the asylum room, and you know sorted out there obviously view of thousands of people and at ten city and possibly the construction of a permanent encampment that is not what's going on.
And so one right I mean there's more than the caravan folks showed up lake. There has been a big increase in the number of asylum seekers coming through in from Central America through Mexico. In the U S, but lake.
this section of the podcast. If you have read my apiece from Wednesday on asylum at ports of entry, is probably gonna be moderately redundant. But if you had
Any girl. Can you haven't, there's that there's a chart and their that shows that lake, the asylum seeker flow, or at least the best proxy for it that we can that we have, which is families coming through between ports of entry. People like crossing the border illegally in getting apprehended by border patrol since spring of this year is just like risen dramatically. It's this big scoop. Iraq's the number of families coming in with papers of ports of entry has been flat and even gone down a little bit
That's not because fewer people are trying to come in its because the? U S, government is only allowing at major ports. At Tijuana at El Paso
in Nogales, in Arizona along some of the major ports in the Rio Grande Valley, has restricted the number of people who can enter in on any given day. Theyve they ve been at was called,
the limit line like physically on the Eu S Mexico border in preventing people from step from setting foot on EU soil, because that would trigger a statutory obligation by the? U S: government, to offer them asylum, and when someone has tried to come up to the border,
people at the border of said. We don't have room for you right now, try to come back later. That has been the case
consistently into water, often on frankly, since twenty sixteen, but extremely consistently and rigidly over the last six months. It's been the case in El Paso, pretty consistently overlap
six months and generally this policy of metering has gone.
Being, you know:
We do it under
unusual circumstances to something that's pretty consistently in effect across the
I mean this is important because I think, like the legality is matter to a lot of people, you know if you see like ok, this family, it's been arrested there being prosecuted with illegal entry there being separated from their children, and someone is like. Oh that's, sad like how could you do that symbols
is like, while you shouldn't break the law. Like you know, I mean criminals are separate from their children all the time when they are caught and prosecuted
This has been literally that live administrations argument has been varies, a legal way to seek asylum. You go to a port of entry and you ask them if people only did that we wouldn't have to do all these are in the same thing. If, if tear gas is shot into a crowd and it hits women and children and bubble and you're like this, so sad, its inhumane people can disable
like that. With these other guys like pushing possibly for rocks, you know like what he can do, rather, like the border patrol needs, defend itself against people breaking the law, which you know I mean all fair enough as far as it goes as far as I'm concerned. But then it's a good because you have a legal right to make a claim to asylum when you are on: U S, soil and there's no, like rule against coming to the legal ports of entry, people come to legal portrayal of time. That's what they're, therefore, so you now have the border patrol acting is just kind of physical
repellents because they don't want to deal with the asylum claim right. That's the their argument is that it's not that they do not want to deal with its that they do not have the kind of physical capacity or human resources depressing, but the political context here is not that they are putting this metering policy in place, while the trumpet Ministration desperately scrambles to get a supplemental appropriation. So they can address this. Where did it's like? The law says that people can set foot on you? I saw and apply for asylum, but
governing political authorities in the United States wish that that were not the case, and so they are shaping the logistical situate
shame to minimize the ability of people to actually do that, because I mean they keep using the word loophole
right, because their view, basically, is that this is maybe was fine to have this rule on the books for decades, when other many people were trying to use it in practice, but that, if you are going to have thousands of people care of adding up from Central America routinely that like, we cannot use the sort of on paper process where you show up shop with illegal point of entry, you get your hearing day go. He asserted do what you want for, while that is too much of a magnet for all kinds of people
to just show up rightly at policy level. The problem that the Trump Administration is trying to solve is that there is a large population of people who pass their preliminary screening in areas for asylum and who ultimately do not get there
Island claims approved. They want to minimize that population like ideally to drop it down to two zero and they certainly want to minimize the amount of that population who are being physically held, but in custody by the. U S: government, between the time that they pass their screening interview in the time that there also asylum claim is denied, because that creates a situation where the? U S government has to track somebody down in order to apprehend deport them because eight like after you have your asylum claimed a night. You don't have status,
U S bite, if the? U S, government doesn't have you physically in custody, you can have gone theoretically wherever, but not for my from you know,
from an even broader perspective than that right I mean people could come in this winter. You know passive plenary screenings be waiting for hearings. You know go do whatever for the next two years and then the common
administration gives them all temporary protected status. I we that is theoretically anything that
exert style! Look, I mean a thing. I think the Trump Administration has really done. Right was like take a hard look at these. Like long lingering portfolios
of Haitians Central Americans that both the Bush and a mom administrations as are routinely-
like a fair enough, fair enough, keep staying right,
so Jones, you, Lama, administration, so
This is a problem to end. As a matter of fact, if you look at the kind of people coming in from Central America, there is a big drop in early twenty. Sixteen, because the Obama administration did some
small scale by high profile raids to apprehend people who had come in from Central America in the last couple of years and then Mr Court hearing, and that sent the message that lake that there was gonna, be
crack down, and so there was a temporary different people coming but suit, because that's the problem that the Trump Administration is trying to solve
they are less amenable to a solution that is going to let people through more
efficiently and not necessarily distinguish between what they consider worthy and unworthy asylum seekers. The problem that that creates- and I think it's really important to understand this in the context of what happened Sunday, because at the same time,
I am in the reaction to Sunday on the left has been like be
these were asylum seekers. They were women and children. They weren't people throwing rocks. How dare you you know, try to characterize these threats and on the right has been
Well. If they were legitimate asylum seekers, why were they throwing rocks? Why are they storming the portable global? But the problem is that when you
hold a lot of people who are trying to prevent asylum claims in Tijuana,
and they are massing to March-
trying to cross on mass like some of those people
may, have more legitimate asylum claims than others. Some of those people may be more aggressive than others. It's not incompatible to say that there may have been people in that group who may
been willing to try to overwhelm and storm border agents and that many of the people in that group work
Elam seeking families, when you
how large groups of people its harder to distinguish between the two. So the problem of, what's called mixed flows, is a big big problem in current global migration patterns,
is being smuggled, doesn't mean you're, not a legitimate humanitarian asylum seeker. You don't necessarily you know. It's not like. The mexican government has been giving everybody a pass if they say they want to seek asylum in the U S, but when you're being smuggled or trafficked, it's not like
burglars are asking. Ok, do you have a legitimate asylum claim? So it's a hard question to deal with, but it certainly not something that is getting solved by we're. Gonna hold everybody on one side and to honour way,
So the result is an ongoing pressure cooker type situation where
I guess the term demonstrations hope is that people will stop coming
right. You can you various interpretations as to black. Why it is that people have come as it was
Some evidence of black misinformation, its-
exactly clear like where the misinformation has come from
that's. Some potentially large share of the
Caravan goers had a mistaken impression of the odds that they were going to be allowed to settle in the United States and put
ten, surely through various dynamics right but like having an ongoing saga about how people are being kept in frustrating dire conditions. Encampment outside you, wanna, occasionally tear gas when they make more aggressive efforts to cross the border.
could like get back to Honduras, and maybe people won't like give up on this
right right, it's worth distinctly. The kind of misinformation thing does make the caravan somewhat unusual. Generally, people are making decisions based on what they ve heard from people.
You who have gone and generally those assessments are pretty correct, Blake when
tromp administration came into office. There was this huge dip in families and children in particular, coming to the? U S, because there was concern that in this very
talking administration was going to crack down, and when it became clear that, despite the administrations rhetoric in the first few months of the administration, they weren't doing it,
thing. That was stopping asylum seekers from being able to enter and plead their cases, because it was fairly well enshrine statutorily in law. Those numbers started keeping back up again: it's not the trumpet mistress
started, saying: oh, it turns out we're ok with asylum seekers. You know it's not Donald Trump, stop saying that they shouldn't come, but people understood the actual situation on the ground rather than hearing what trumpet saying. So
an absolutely see the converse. If that would like there have been stories of people, you know giving
and going back turning themselves into the mexican government to get returned in theory that could result in fewer people coming. But it's also true that this has now become a politicized issue in
duress in particular, where its being used by both the governing party and the opposition party as a proxy for support for the current government, which
closely aligned with the: U S and very much Anti caravan, its
Guatemala, where there has been serious drought issues and a lot of people have just lost their livelihoods. It's not like there's a great alternative there, so yeah, it's possible
but generally as impossibly difficult as the journey through Mexico and dangerous that are neither Mexico has been. People have been making the decision that the chance of ultimate legal status in the? U S is worth taking that risk, and so what's really hard to assess is whether the people who are going to decide not to come are going to be the people who have but would be legitimate asylum claims are not like that's the fear of any
Current policy is that you're going to end up, deterring people who ought to legally by rights, get humanitarian protection in the? U S and there is going to be so desperate but unwilling to kind of risk what could be very dangerous for them on the way that there are not even going to try, and so with that. I think you know in terms of we're Trump is trying to take that. I think we should talk about this deal that may or may not exist,
with the government that may or may not be taking office at some point in Mexico. The government is definitely taking off how, unless you know something, I doubt we'll take a great thing. A long time. People
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So on Saturday, the new president of Mexico will be inaugurated, undress, mental well Lopez abroad or known as ammo, and with that in theory, you know the trumpet ministries
It has a challenge and an opportunity to deal with a relationship that a lot of people in the trunk administration think is very important and Donald Trump seems to run very hot and cold on. I think, is a fair way to put that. After from its inauguration, he has occasionally done the same kind,
macho we're gonna make Mexico pay for the wall, but he's also occasionally made it clear that he likes Mexico's efforts alone,
to stop central Americans from coming in right
they are getting a new thief. Had this incredibly long lame that period and Mexico
really yeah crazy is apparently outgrowth. So Mexico has
an answer for a single six year, fixed term and for the longest time was like a sham democracy in which all the president's were from the same party. So apparently, this extended lame duck period arose during that. Like perfect dictatorship era, when is it didn't matter now? They have partisan competition, so the incoming president is from a different political party than the outgoing president. They presumably have
policy disagreements on a variety of France and say you have these weird things like it's important: their signing the NAFTA to point no deal today Friday, because the president who negotiated that it will not be president were finally tomorrow and they need to get it done as imo is
Is it leftist sort of them the main leader of the contemporary Mexican laughed for fifteen years, at least, if not more than that, and so, when its face would sort of Herald a more confrontational stance with the United States, latin American left, often less friendly to american governments in general, but you're going to right wing american governments which themselves are very hostile to the latin American left? There is this huge pre election push from travel? Ministration too, I guess I would say, try to save some. How seats in South Florida but
you know they did this big speech about Cuba and Venezuela Grog one the whole deal, but the narratives that the trumpet ministration was pushing about the caravan when it first left handers was that it was funded via and as well, because this is what the right way to go.
Of. Honduras was saying right, yes and Asia. Association, things is important because in the U s you know, there's a kind of rationalization of Latin America as a whole and a sense that light while Trump is just kind of waging like a racist campaign against latin american immigration and then maybe an expectation of solidarity from south of the border. But Latin America has its own like deeply contested politics and the government. Honduras sees the existence of the caravan as a left wing plot in the context of latin american politics. Not not. U S, part
but anyway endless government leaked last week. Actually they had to deal with the Trump administration that sounded like great for Donald Trump like down from was achieving like big goals here without seemingly having made
your concessions right so that the chronology of this, which was its,
Emily is not something,
Anyone else was noticing, as all of you all we're having a nice four day week end, whereas I was spending my thanksgiving frantically texting people trying to figure out where there is going to not be able to cook thanks giving dinner for my family,
but on Wednesday night last week the Washington Post published a story saying that there were that, the? U S was looking to implement this thing whereby they would have people do their screening interviews at the port of entry and then forced them to go back to Mexico. To wait.
Their asylum applications were being processed so like the monster years that it takes instead of having them in the U S and either having to pay for them to be in detention.
releasing the men. You know
worrying about whether they were gonna show up herbs, Gander just fall off the map or whatever they would
essentially be getting held in presumably held in refugee camps or just try or just lie.
Kind of survival in their own devices in Mexico,
on Saturday, the Washington Post ran a peace in which the income
Interior Minister for the ammo government said, quote:
For now. We have agreed to this remain in Mexico, deal and confirmed that the? U S and the incoming mexican government had been negotiating at and that they had
a lot of details still had to be worked out, but that they had agreed to in principle. After that,
people came out the office of it
said incoming Interior Minister put out a statement, it was
loaded as kind of denying the post
or what it actually said is. There is no,
because we're not even coming into office until next week
and we have no intention of becoming a safe third country, which is a reference to a different kind of agreement where, in the? U S
been able to just reject any asylum application from anyone who travelled through Mexico. So the statement denied something that the post didn't say and also
well, there's no deal because we're not in office yet which
sense from a one government at a time standpoint right, like it's, not a good idea to make it obvious that you are negotiating an international agreement when you're not actually be official government of Mexico. You see
is that story. Last week, though, there have been lots of indications that this is something the. U S and the ammo administration are working pretty aggressively on my
Hence is gonna, go down and meet with the Imo government next weekend might Pompeo
has been in really high level talks. It does appear to be the case.
Meanwhile, within the trumpet menstruation I keep hearing stuff that indicates that they're trying to lay the groundwork down to get this in places.
It's possible sooner distinctions are so safe. Third country would be to say, look if you fleeing persecution in Guatemala are whatever. Then you went to Mexico
right. Then you went from Mexico to the United States. You are no longer fleeing Guatemala.
Right, you were already out of Guatemala, so
get out of here. You wasn't. Canada have rightly theirs for all
the kind of stories
In twenty seventeen about people like immigrants fleeing the EU
for Canada, because they were worried about the Trump Administration the
and Canada have agreed that
your literally fleeing the persecution of the? U S, government, there's not any particular
good reason why you wouldn't just seek asylum in the Eu S or seek asylum in Canada, if that's the first time
So it was so in particular, you can't get on a boat in Haiti, land in the United States and then try to traverse of drawing back, which in some ways might be a better place for it
speaking person to live right and then say to the core authorities. Oh, I need asylum because by the time you get to go back, you're already
the United States and its an american problem, the Canadians wash their hands of you and you can't get to Canada from anywhere cause. It's fucking
of everything right always to that. The idea of a safe third country agreement is that it is safe and lots of places in
ago, including many places along the U S, next go border- are not safe. That be the fact that the caravan went all the way out to Sandy Sidra when it would have been several hundred miles.
shorter for them to go to the Rio Grande Valley is low
leader, result of tunnel leap, ass, being a state that is basically control
the Gulf Cartel along large parts of it and the risks that you carry for beef
being an asylum seeker, who's not willing to find of pay or can't pay the relevant bribes
or who inner just disrupting their efforts to come.
Roll various roads.
It's not a great risk. It's not a risk.
necessarily want to tell you that an international political terms. The reason Mexico doesn't want to make an agreement like this is that they don't want this hot potato to be their problem. Right, I mean it's not fundamentally
An inter governmental. I don't like about is really not sure about the laser gay is denied. That said like they are kind of this, is you know that this is what you are saying that this deal looking really good for Donald Trump right later, but so that having the stay in Mexico deal is different from safe? Third countries is theoretically. The idea here is that your asylum claim your petitioning the american government for asylum and the american government is assessing that claim without prejudice right. But while you wait for the resolution of the claim, instead of being either in an american jail, where activists will complain about you or loose in the American into
here were ice, has to track you somehow you are going to be in Mexico. Railway, in fact, is, though, that you
kind of its. Not any
legal governmental framework Mexico's problem, but it is in the kind of basic. How do you feed and care for these people a maxim
problem right, but it can also its. I was from the trend, administrations perspective
the needle very nicely here because, like claims it get approved list of it approve
I think, you're, not saying that you refusing to hear people's petitions you're, not saying that like Mexico is amazing and people should live there in safety. You were saying that, like look like people from Guatemala can a petition for asylum. If the claims are legitimate, they will be granted asylum and they will get it. But meanwhile, you are not going to have
thousand people in the kind of asylum limbo kicking around. It's gonna be chaldean around. They want to solve very elegant exotic they're gonna be kicking around in Mexico, and what
striking to me about this. Is that because it gives the pressure for came from the mexican side? If anything were, I would have expected them to be talking about the amazing thing they got from Trump in exchange for agreeing to this, because it is like a crazy thing to agree to like it really clearly does of something that they presently
It states has identified as like his personal number one grievance with America Guy Food has you think it's like, so so what especially because the ammo government, just like the current mexican government is, does not appear to be approaching this from the perspective of the human rights of the migrants are the most important thing it's very
easy to imagine that an low who has not been as consumers
or as vocal on issues of lake.
Civil or cultural issues, as he has on economic issues,
I could see this is a way to get some political capital
but still I was waiting for his like hears our trillion dollar. Suddenly asking they're asking for twenty billion dollars for Southern Mexico re that barely has any right. That's this! As you know, I do not have man if you are involved in. U S Mexico deliberations, it is very easy to contact me securely. You can see my ad secure male drop on my twitter bio, but we
having anybody who is in that room, the press reports sure make it
sound like they have tentatively agreed to the remaining Mexico side
are still asking for the twenty billion dollars or Southern Mexico which bear in mind. This isn't
twenty billion dollars to care for the mind
not really it's. We want you to help us develop view less,
economically developed part of our country, you know the emerald government, like talks about, like a Marshall plan, kind of
where the? U S is going to be giving large amounts of aid to Mexico in order
for Mexico to take in
temporarily the residents of these other law.
Developed countries to Mexico South Way and
its way, the leak struck me as yes right just because I've been asking people about their most tenure as Mere Mexico city
you know the thing that everybody seems to say is that, like he's really sincere mexican leftist politician, but also a very pragmatic person, a person who cuts deals like none in the Donald Trump sense, but in the like normal politics, and so he is his goal that he's always driving at, but he does not expect like the four ammo vision to.
like next week, so he's doing things, and so they talk about. You know how, when he was mayor, Mexico City killed this huge revitalization of the central city.
Basically the reason why Mexico City has become a big tourist destination in the way that can Kuhn and other places had long been now lots of people visit Mexico City and that a ton of the money for this was put up by Carlos Slim. Ultimately, you know not like a long term it illogical ally of his but a business man who could we benefit from this thing that he wanted to do and he needed money for and they work with the central government that was run by conservatives of the time that he brought in Rudy Giuliani to be like his security consultant. While this was happening not because they really wanted Rudy Julie on his advice to the Mexico City police, but because they like wanted to make american
I feel like something was happening that was making Mexico City safe, and we wanted to invest in building hotels and come visit, and that's why you know. I think it's like not a crazy idea right like what what do white people in America think we'll make a city safe, worry, Giuliani, right, and so, like that's what you do read, he wasn't like really hung up
the peculiarities of enjoying it wasn't. Even it wasn't any ideological thing for him either way right was something he was perfectly willing to do to get what he actually one answer. That very much suggests that if he can get some giant check to deliver development assistance to Southern Mexico,
dead. Like a like. You would do a lot to get a giant check of money right that, like every mexican politician like promises, they will do something with the systematic under development of sodium exit go and like they don't know that they don't have. Any idea is for how to do this, like shit ton of american money like that. That would help right, and so, if you can get that by you know instead
Mexico paying for a border wall like Mexico puts people in a tent city indefinitely in the United States, pays for an unrelated economic development project by great right, because the question-
are there are lots of questions about this on the? U S side, one of which is that Donald Trump has been extremely consistent in
hacking existing aid going to Mexico and Central America as way to address
root causes of migration in Trump world foreign aid is basically bribes to governments.
But what we want them to do, and if they don't do what we want them to deal, we didn't give them any of the money which actually kind of
dovetails with the left wing critique of the? U S, approach to trying to solve the root causes of migration. By helping,
give money to the governments that in many cases, people are fleeing, but
we would not only be seeing a flip from Mexico's gonna pay from milk for the wall to we're gonna pay, Mexico, twenty billion dollars we'd be seeing a flip from we're gonna cut off.
were in aid to northern triangle countries for not stopping people from leaving it
We are going to engage in a massive massive, bigger aid package to Mexico, for the poor
of Mexico temporarily holding people right, even stopping them from coming into the Eu S. Ultimately, if they do get their asylum claims approved. So it's not clear that Donald Trump
Somalia is going to be a huge fan of this. It's not clear.
twenty billion dollars as much flexibility
as the state Department often has with foreign aid stuff, twenty billion dollars is probably not something they can find between couch cushions. So what a democratic house?
going do with that, isn't open question and its also not clear that this policy,
will pass legal muster once its. Inevitably
alleged in the ninth circuit because the legal problem
and in the immigration and Nationality ACT that the Trump administration is probably going to be using for this is
really clear whether it applies to asylum seekers. There's like it's. This weird three part legal problem that I've talked to several lawyers about and people.
Reading the grammar of it in different ways,
there are really big questions about ok, if Europe doing this kind of quick profits,
seeing for screening interviews and then send people back to Mexico. How
are they supposed to get access to legal services? They are supposed to be able to have access to them. They are not guaranteed right to representation, but, like you can create a situation where they don't have an attorney and are just getting set for the process and don't have the ability to get one. There are, of course, human rights concerns about the conditions in Mexico and whether that's actually going to be a safe place for people. It's not super clear that this is not going to go. The exact
in a way that every other Trump asylum attempt has gone and get put on hold via a ninth circuit judge and then beyond this very slowly litigation time line, as it goes up to the Supreme Court. So what that would create is
world where the? U S,
giving a lot of money to Mexico and can't even get what it wants out of sight of the deal. Yeah
on the other hand, to be like a little bit more optimistic about has
do you find that a lot of people approach politics in a somewhat irrational, like clean hands framework, and so while pictures of asylum seekers being detained in inhumane conditions in the United States by the american government would really agitate them the leg,
if they being detained in Mexico, people are really going to care and yours. I've got some real precedent from you're right. I mean that they would not put it this way, because european leaders are not nearly as crass as Donald Trump, but they are essentially paying governments in northern Africa turn Turkey to turn up.
asylum seekers, and they are again because there are many crashes Donald Trump like. Would they or pretend
Is going on is that they are providing financial assistance to countries that are coping with migrant flows and that this is like and development aid
Fears, but like willing what's going on? Is that, like they know, the governments in question are very corrupt? Have terrible human rights records have very weak whirl of law systems like that, and they are not saying here. Take this money as a bribe, but they're not really interested in like what is the money? Being used for its just it's a deal right like they do not want an infinite quantity of refugees, washing up on the shores of Spain and ITALY and creating a domestic european problem. They don't want to form a we shut Europe's doors to asylum seekers, but they dont want asylum seekers showing up in Europe, so they are gonna get Molly or whoever else
to shut the doors and Trump in some ways, because he's less invested in pretending that this isn't. What he's asking for? I think you know you you can imagine a world in which is much more successful,
you can generally imagine a world in which tunnels have as much for things etiquette
Nobody mean just like this. This particular thing right. It seems to me
like this is something that western governments are often trying to do, but that they are a little bit held back by their own bad conscience about it, and that, like because Trump is like so willing to say that, like gas, like just like what he wants, is further to not be central american asylum seekers physically present in the United States
that, like he, doesn't care about. Any other aspect of this that, like now, the other governments can just like you, don't ammo or whoever else, but I mean he's that the responsible person can just like name their price and see what they can get. Yes, I mean I do
that the pattern of Donald Trump does a thing, the courts,
say it's. Ok or say it's not, ok and Congress makes some noises is not
is sensitive to domestic politics is not totally on sensitive, but lake
legal challenges in the asylum ban that they
in early November, didn't get a ton of outrage and still got struck down and brought in short order by the nine Circuit Lake? That's
you're gonna be a risk. Even if it's not getting a lot of domestic out writings have bigger political question. Right is like it would be at this point clearly challenging for Senate Democrats to give in on the five billion dollar wall appropriation request even of the sums
wanted to write the like they are now feeling increasing pressure from the base that, like they have given way too much on their sweat and you'll. Be question is like look,
if Turkey, not for five billion dollars for a wall of twenty
billion dollars to who knows what right but like to get our money to build. The wall like
Does that become a source of outraging grievance right that this is like Wall Squared or does it become,
look Donald Trump. Finally, like did something right am I
we should give development aid to Latin America and, like this is a pragmatic resolution of the asylum problem, and you know we are now not can have children separated from their parents in the american prison system
Unlike this is good right right and like I just I don't know whether, because because this whole thing happened over Thanksgiving, like
people, and then they, nobody now kind of, like the micro timing of the next couple of weeks, matters a lot because we're now about a week from us,
down deadline and that's also the first
week of the Embryo administration, so the timing of whether they manage to like you know, Inca, Deal Tuesday verses next Tuesday.
We really import right, and so I just don't have you know
It struck me as like not on the radar of people, s Capitol Hill Democrats right now right they have been consumed with the House leadership elections and with various people yelling at church humor about various things. Liza has again good article about
but it's like I mean I don't know you know like I was I was. I was reading this this posed report over and I was like ok like this kind of seems like
is like getting money once but like can he's been, is a victory really a more normal president who had more political capital. I think like definitely could write like sell. This is like an elegant resolution to what's bothering like most Americans about what's going on here and like human rights activists can go complain.
As they tend to many. Anyone be big deal but like Trump has a way of making a very contentious,
and in a scenario where your party doesn't control Congress like this on a great way to get anything done. That sounds
that sounds grant. It's really. You know who knows how this is going to shake out over the next week, plus
Obviously, there are also lots of other considerations when it comes to Wall Funding versus Security funding, and the question of whether Democrats try to ask for something
in return on immigration and in especially in terms of legalization of doktor recipients
as usual? In our current moment, we are very close to a shot down deadline with very little appearing to happen in terms of negotiation
We can't really shuttle out of light on that, because there is not a lot of late to be shared by this
kind of the dark horse in oak
The duration as we hurdle toward a shot down people try to make a deal.
So what that I think we should wrap this up. We will revisit probably some of these topics. As we know more about the state of the appropriations, battles and capital help you will have to see if I'm on
It really makes not, but it's a big issue, and I think, has not people who really focused on the most significant aspects of it as opposed to the most telegenic ones. So, thanks to our thanks to genes empty chair and the good people in Vienna, we sano things, of course, to our producer.
given Tanner back on Tuesday.
Transcript generated on 2021-09-11.