« The Weeds

Midwest Republicans lost in 2018 — but they’re not giving up power

2018-12-04

Jane, Ezra, and Matt talk about state-level GOP power grabs and the curious case of Trump’s disappearing populism. References and further reading: Tara Golshan’s piece on the recent legislation proposed by GOP lawmakers David Frum’s book and Yascha Mounk’s book on populism and the threat to democracy Ezra’s conversation with Nate Silver Matt’s explainer on the Indiana Carrier factory Michael Brendan Dougherty’s essay on the support Trump needs after the 2018 elections A research paper on Americans’ misconceptions of the major political parties 

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Yo Bismarck has brought me a mph d, and this is Andrew Manga Nellie. We will introduce you to our pod cast way form the new sedition to the Vocs media Paca Network, so I've spent over ten years, reviewing tech products and consumer electronics for millions of people on the income fifty Youtube Channel and now on the way forward. Ass Andrew and I use that experience to dig even deeper into latest tech for smartphones too. I max to electric cars, so Have you gadget your lover or attack head or if you just want to figure out whether the latest gadget is worth your harder in cash? Give us a lesson sacred, fine, formed the empty beefy pike ass on your favorite Pakistan. Every Friday see over. There are, let's do the has passed,
Discourse, hello. Welcomes another episode of the means on the clocks, media network, Matthew Glaziers here today with Jane coasted recline, and we are going to talk about the fate of democracy in America and in particular, there's a couple of them but it should act against that are going on in lame duck sessions is not against feels like yeah, I elation of our sacred order by miscreants. Can we use this areas, what's a huge what's happening in Wisconsin and Michigan back in twenty ten. Not only in those days
but those are two states that in twenty ten Republicans swept into power, they swept statewide offices, they swept state legislative offices and then they because the twenty two senses- gutter, redraw their electoral districts and they held on twenty four teen when were publicans did very well. But here in twenty eighty in the payment is come due and Democrats swept statewide offices in both Michigan and was concerned, I don't know that's american political system operating as it's supposed to await the pen. Other cookie crumbles. Its was also like these are swing states. Rights of the angel M swings. It was a bad atmosphere for Democrats and twenty ten was a good in two thousand, a teen excel. America also allows for these lame duck legislative sessions, so Scott worker has lost his alot reelection bid as governor of Wisconsin, but he is still governor and the legislature is still in place and they can
today, a whole suite of bills that would both reduce the powers, the governors office and of the attorney general's office, and also put into place a number of voting restrictions and sort of lock them in so that went on he ever takes office. He will be taking charge of aid diminished office. Very similar to this happened in North Carolina two years ago, where a Democrat One, the governors ways kicking out republican trifecta, so they use the Lamed accession to reduce it officers. Power in Michigan Summit broadly similar as in the works, are, though, but of the less express track, and they are also their pay a move to basically nullify about initiative that had been in place to raise the minimum, wage and its flown a little bit below the national radar, because these are these are state politic stories. You know about that but the national implications seem quite wheeled to me.
This is a time we ve had sort of two years of steady takes about Donald Trump and democracy and institutions but would you seeing in these states, and especially in Wisconsin North Carolina? I think, is that the threat to the you know, the legitimacy and democratic legitimacy of the american political system does not have like that much to do with Donald trumps Goofball per reality right and yo. I brought up this example little bit earlier chatting up yesterday in Utah the vote. Is fifty three percent of voters past proposition to which is the Utah Medical, Cannabis ACT and the voters We would like the Utah cannabis acts, and then makers voted on Monday and a special legislative session to place, what the law that voters had approved, and so they had announced in October, they were going to rewrite the legislation prior to its passage after meeting with the church of latter day. Saints
bunch of other groups that oppose the legislation that again voters supported. So again, this is very separate from Trump. Our conversations about trump- and this is something taking place in a lot of states where the voters have spoken, and yet the voters are apparently not being heard so a mud, he's so sure that it is separate from Donald Trump in the national for four reasons I'll get into, but actually want to go a little bit deeper into what was consular publicans have proposed because its tell Our colleague targets Sean has great peace on this on the site will put it in show notes, but what they have proposed,
and what they're gonna be voting on, as we want to cut down the number of early voting days, limiting it down to two weeks. They there's a proposal at the republican legislature, intervene in legal cases and higher their own lawyers. I specifically this is about their bunch of cases where a publican states are challenging Obama era. Laws like Obamacare and the democratic governor could take the state out of that challenge, and republican legislature is trying to be able to take that challenge on on behalf of the state. Even if the Democrat does that they want to change. The date was conscious. Twenty twenty presidential, primarily from April a march with a trying to do there, is separate but they're calling a partisan primary from non partisan ones that deal with say, states Supreme Court judges because they want to keep the majority on the Supreme Court. Am, I believe, it's a president of the Senate. There, though it could be, miss remembering which leading republican legislator said this, but he said that the Republicans would have a better chance if these were separated. They wanna give legislature more power over bunch of boards and commissions books, content, economic Development Corporation.
Limit ever its ability to change state work requirement, laws run food stamps and healthcare. The given legislature, oversight or any of those waivers estate has received so their bunch of things at Republicans, of either done when they were in power or want to do to keep power that they are trying to that they're trying to take control of even though they ve lost the election, and one reason I don't think this is completely different from some of the trends happening at the national level is. I do think this is a big undercurrent of the National Supreme Court fights if you look at what the Roberts cord- and I think we can expect the court than ours
have an eye on it has been doing in and will be doing. You saw the case around union dues rank that really weaken public sector unions. You ve seen them refused rule on gerrymandering, which allowed for quite a bit of containing republican shenanigans, run that, although, of course, some democratic ones too, you ve seen the efforts on onto got the voting rights actin and had largely successful efforts and their bunch of other things like that citizens, United policy. This is a pretty interesting numbered. There's a study other that says it. Citizens, United, has given Republicans a five point advantage and state legislature says, which then gives them gerrymandering powers which then, which then, which then the big point here is power begets power where bit, I'm not saying that this is different from national political trends I'm saying- is that this is separate from Donald Trump yea. I guess I ain't that suffer from Donald Trump. Specific, like tendencies towards authoritarianism. Mildly point is at its lottery
this. Yes, but I think it's important, because there is a thing about Donald Trump. That often goes by the word popular so bright, and there is a sense in- and you see this in David from his book, you see them Yarmouk Spock, you see it and not in a lot of certain national discord. There is a view that connects Donald Trump VS, his immigration and trade policies, which are somewhat distinctive from our republic that been too european, far right and to a notion of because I'm right, Victor Orban and the threat to democracy right, which is a classic notion of a kind of publicity dictatorship bright the demo. Who whips people up, undermines institutions and the rule of law and entrenches himself as a personal west, ruler, from does have some of those qualities like people are not miss reading them. But there is this
their story weight that seems bigger to meet you like Chrome, is not a publicity dictator he's a guy who lost the popular vote and he's entrenched, mostly through appointing very conventional conservative Republicans to the Supreme Court and these kind of moves to ways. I know of Election. Results are coming from the the heart of establishment report, can as right. Wait like this is not the, burying at the gate. This is the were of commerce right and the coconut work, and this is what they're doing, because it advances import but banal policy goals like they want the minimum wage to be low rain. One make it harder for people to get on food stamps. There's no populism. Really to any of this. It's not like the masses overriding our fussy liberal order is actually people playing
fussy, liberal order to overturn election results so it's interesting and looking at the Michelin case, if the Michigan House passes the ascended approved changes that the GEO P controlled Senate has the approved, and this is going against what obviously voters support with regard to the hourly minimum wage and mandated paid sick leave. That would mean workers ridden see arrays to twelve dollars per hour until twenty thirty and tipped workers who now earn three dollars, and fifty two cents per hour will have their wages. Capped at four dollars per hour will capped aside from tips. We should say: well, yes, nobody, but so people were out. Activists were gathering signatures to put a minimum wage and sickly of issues on the ballot right is this- is a been in a jury. Mandarin era away progressives have found an end around through Germander districts, as you can't gerrymander ballot nation, but the Michigan constitution allows the legislature to sort of pre empt about
An initiative by passing it into law, and so they did, they passed minimum wage and sick leave legislation before the election to take it off the balance or diffuse it as an issue but they delayed the implementation until mid way through next year, so that created the opportunity to during this Lamed accession modify the ass. They passed earlier this year that kept these issues from going on the ballot, this is completely illegal, but it's the opposite of populism is is what's going on here. You think so it is interesting about it and we really solve as in North Carolina. But we're seeing taken, Michigan were seeing it in Wisconsin. You might expect that the natural check on this kind of behaviour in small de democratic society would be that legislators would feel that if they did this there, you voted out of office right that people look at them and say you are breaking the rules.
You are directly contravening what we wanted to happen and we are going to turn you out and they're doing this quite fearlessly. And my understanding in North Carolina is it did not lead to large backlash against. Republicans does not look like the Michigan legislature practically fears what might happen in the aftermath of this, and there are many possible reasons for this. It may be that the way the boats are distributed in the way the districts or are built that you know the voters who voted for these laws do not have as much power. You know Zuma, as you might expect their sheer numbers might just be that people forget, or it might be the people who care, but I do think one a things of it that has to be looked at hears it there. There is a remedy for this right. This is not, as you say, They are using the fussy, liberal order, and there is a common, not so fussy, democratic response, but the fact that so many legislatures able to do this- and this goes also for gerrymandering in a bunch of other things. There really does
to be a belief in politics- and it may well be a correct belief that voters do not vote on process. They do not vote because what they feel it was unfair and drag. Your voters prefer that you take as much power as you can. Whenever you can, and so you may be dissolved the game now right like maybe maybe these are the rules of politics, not the other rules of politics. I got given that the responses of the electorate you have to ask: that's, actually the world were living well. The problem, though, is that in turn eighteen and the voters in Wisconsin voted for a democratic state legislators and most voters in Michigan voted for a democratic state legislature right, but in both cases, Republicans ended up with a large majority of the seats because of how the district lines have been drawn to its, not that they don't fear that the voters will turn on them. Is that they have Proof in hand that the voters turning on them won't caused them to lose. Their majority is
and especially in a state like Michigan. You know when track governor excited. He didn't endorse the Republican who is related to follow him who lost his election. You propose Party in Michigan and Wisconsin and in a bunch of other states accident in Pennsylvania, ebbing in popularity, and so I think that this is an understanding that you gotta get. You get the getten while the gettin is good, so to speak. Right I mean. Maybe does all intersect in a fairly fundamental way with gerrymandering, because, ultimately, given gerrymandered lines to lose the races you would be alienates not the median voter in your state, but a voter whose considerably to the right of the median vote and that voter you know, as you are saying, is like once his local elected officials to grab as much power as as they can read because like because he's much too
right of the state media and does not think that a sort of a majority in process is going to represent the interests that he has, that doesn't an interesting dynamic here, though, which is that MRS two way so a society where you have a party political coalition in power, but that it knows we'll lose power. It knows that the numbers are turning against it. This is enough take us out of the american context we like to get rid of like our miss about ourselves and our beliefs about ourselves like this is often what political science has will happen, that you will see a widespread effort on the part of the has power to change the rules so that they will be able to keep power like we used to. Have these articles on the side, and then they came out of great articles that were were written it at slated to its great format like how we put on this ever happening in another country right and edges egg. Its is much cold or come like all in this banana republic over here
On the one hand, This isn't that unusual, on the other, a kind of is because in the way we capable theorize about politics we again small democratic politics. If you, a party that is losing bid is beginning to lose power. What you, what they want to do is expanding, appeal, so they don't lose power right. This is the sort of the idea of their public, an autopsy and twenty twelve. We remains this day there are public, has now lost six of the last seven presidential popular vote margins. That's really bad record for a party you'd you'd, want to be beginning to kind of think up a bigger abroad or ten strategy. But instead they ve been doing the opposite and in these different states, which, in our view, cancer by no means out of power forever in Wisconsin in Michigan, but as Jane said, there are some real bad currents for the parties in the states and in Michigan were excited and even endorse the next governor. You know, you might imagine a mission Republican Party deciding ok
We ve made some wrong turns here for going to be competitive internally, we're gonna be dominant in the next couple of years, like we need to get back to a broader, based appeal, academic and it again that that doesn't seem to be happening with Republican Party. I did this interview need silver right before the election, and we are talking about you're, saying that in his models. When you run the numbers, the average state is six points more public end in the nation is a So the way the Senate is apportioned given that awaits states equally, not people. Equally, the Senate gives Republicans a six point: at age than they would otherwise have, but Republicans don't of the kind of dominance over the. U S, Senate that you would expect from that advantage, and- and the reason is that instead of spent, that advantage on more seats. They spend that advantage on more unpopular policies. They use. The advantage of themselves a buffer to do things at their set of either A republican elites or more narrow parts of their base want done, and it seems to be some That is happening all over the Republican Party right Now- and I don't particularly
a clear explanation of why I'm curious, if either of you do let's take a break and then come back to that. If you like. Basically anyone listening to this right now, I'm willing to bet that you are you're dealing with stress, maybe there's a ton of it like an overwhelming amount, or maybe it's more like a low but steady, drumbeat background stress, no matter how you. Experiencing stress. It's likely, fucking moods, you, energy and so many other areas of your life. You feel like this is starting to take over strain your relationships and shorten your temper partly tend to unload and better help is perfect for that better help is customized online therapy that offers videophone and even live chat sessions. Whittier therapists, She wrote to see anyone on camera. If you don't want you it's much more affordable than in person therapy, and you could start communicating with a therapist in forty eight hours.
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Twenty one plus and present in Pennsylvania, first online, real money wager only refund, who does not withdrawal side, credit that expires in fourteen days, restrictions apply, see terms at sports booked out, fan dual dotcom. Gambling problem call one. Hundred gambler. So it's interesting because I think about this question a lot about the idea Euro. Whenever there is some conservative or far right commentator. Who is Very concerned that there will never be a republican president ever again, because there are too many brown people voting, six myself, you could attempt to pitch republican ideas to non white people. You could who that it's a thing that has been done before you during the twenty eighteen midterms, a republican candid, namely TED crews, did better was lucky no voters than trumpeted and twenty sixteen. We have. Frustration about California, conservatives. We talk a little bit about that set at something
I would love to get into at some. Other time is that young George, W Bush and Rick Perry ran very different campaigns that did in fact aim non white voters who they thought might have conservative leanings. But I You see this idea obvious is, is I've written about this? I deeply believe this this kind of California. Conservative, like we have two lake get all this done right now, because we will never win an election again, because there's no way that we could pick our ideas to these people and it's over strange argument to basically sea like if we don't attempt to usurp the of the voters or take away decisions of voters have made. We cannot fight with the crowds on an equal playing field where history would easily dictate that clearly conservatives can this also reminds me when we are talking about the California Conservatives, because this kind of behavior the Beaver state level, republican parties, its to me that, for all this kind of hype,
in the media world of of this idea that politics is downstream of culture or that what conservatives really want is a victory in the culture wars. Their behaviour in this kind of like brass tacks, stuff says otherwise sweetly dearest, some element of the institutional conservative movement, really really craves political power, and now just the showy symbolism of political power right, like scum or losing to Tony ever is is a big kind of statement. Right in in the culture like was said: is it turning into a red state? No now we have this liberal governor again but, like the its nature is acting here in procedurally and substantively abusive ways, because there is a problem found concern about That little nibbling details of public policy. And the same in Michigan right like
The minimum wage is really popular. Right, it's really popular. If you wanted to own the lives, you would just take one for the team and embracing frolic, they don't. They are willing to bend the rules to break norms, to risk losing elections, to make sure that companies do not need to increase the salaries that they pay too low. You can keep, and it just seems to me that when you look nodded the sort of rhetoric of conservatism, but the practice of conservative politics that the fingerprints of PLUTO, creasy are all over. I mean not just in the EU. Pain contributions that go but in what is the substantive agenda in the willingness to lose elections in pursuit of unpaid Our policy is an awesome, the question of what's in it, for you rightly how come nobody from the back benches of the Wisconsin Legislature wants to be reformer hero who
stands up to the party machine and to these kind of abuses right, It's like somebody is doing this work and it's not like Dedicated readers of the bright Bart comments, section right who are obsessed with cultural war. Atmospheric sprite, like these are people who really really really care about whether or not it is easier or harder to sign up for medicated food stamps in Wisconsin and they are taking big risks to their reputations careers to the underlying stability of the american political system and to think that's, because, like really rich donors think this is important, I think something more illogical at at heart of this, because Dickens we'll different directions. I mean, I think, a lot about the thing, Paul Ryan said which he said. I believe too, which Lowry of the national review. When right, about got medicated. The building and passing the king stamps, yet accent comet, where he said
You- and I have been dreaming about this, since we were doing kegs in college or since we were a keg parties in college or whatever was and You know what he was saying there if you took it out of its kind of like I'm extremely Friday. Phrasing was it. You have been dreaming about cutting Medicaid since college. I thought to myself like who is incredibly college dreaming about getting medicate like taking medicate away from more people but Conservative activists are right. If you're of your young republic of Paul Ryan's ilk, you know that that's what you're a cultured and I by on some love all that this is all coming from the donors and I don't buy it because I just don't think the donors long enough, like my red of most money in politics, things isn't it do a lot with money in politics, but you can't it is very hard to by people away from the positions actually hold when it's very easy to do is reinforced suppositions. A they are hold ran. It seems to me that, like them, though, the role the money is playing is like. The fortress
allows them to hold the positions or push the positions. They actually have your money is complicated. Right, there's like going into convincing people. These positions is a lot going into like giving them the reasoning structure army, this all kinds of things at money actually does in practice, but he's live, reinforcing the positions of the already have like. Isn't that what's happening here like I'm, not set what I'm sick of that's what I'm set here. I think not abusing its just the donors, it's not like it. He took out the donors Mitch Mcconnell and Paul Ryan would be in a different place, there's. The other point on this was that it really looked campaign, like Donald Trump, was gonna break. This Donald Trump was going to come in and he was going to say. No, the core of the Republican Party is like white resentment and borders, and I don't really care about the donors, because Donald Trump did in primarily fund his campaign. He is not. Reliant on donors is a lot of other players. He gets a lot of free media rakkeed such close, your eyes when he wasn't right its programme to be different next time, but he did
He came in and it turned out that, like everybody, he hired and everybody whose voice he relied on in Congress like the old, the way he was gonna, in payment support was by buying into this, and I think some levels, because this is like the authentic belief of the republican Party. You ve had these good. Whereas in the past mad about like this being a group of people, They really believe what they believe like they re like their fears, we committed to this vision of the country and I think it was called, can you see it like? It's just bizarre? It is bizarre that the thing you would to do is make sure that the incoming Denmark, Governor cannot change the waivers on Medicaid and on food stamps like that. That is the hell you wanna die on, but like they believe at right. Like that, they believe enough in these waivers that are just that are adding. Or requirements making it harder for people to access needed social safety NET programmes bill They are willing to take all these all these heads, and I don't think it's because there is such a huge donor industry in Wisconsin back in them up on this. I think it's because they believe this is the kind of thing that they are in politics
done. So this makes me wonder how far this kind of trend is going to go. Wait, because I think that there is both an asymmetry between the blues, aids and end the Republicans. In this regard, and also you know, some disturbing kind of implications, like the basic issue in both Wisconsin and Michigan, is that you gerrymander elections for statewide races, but you can gerrymander state legislative, Ray is so Democrats gotta, a modest but real majority sort of all up and down the ballot in those states, but that create- wins and statewide offices, but losses of legislative majorities conceivably, you could see a push. You know it. Next time, there's a republican governor and one of those states. The pendulum swings back and forth to really we order the state constitution and all fifty states copy the presidential system, where you have an independent executive and legislature, but it's no requirement for that right.
If you really committed to the idea that gerrymandering is good and that a big problem with governors having power is that you can't gerrymander your way to winning governors races, you could just like do away with the of governor bright and have a kind of parliamentary system based on gerrymander districts and world forever, and that would go against norms of various kinds, but at the same time passing large constitutional changes after you win an election would in some ways be less norm, violating the doing it after you lose one and you have the opposite trend in. I feel like blue states, where Democrat leaders in the state legislature in Maryland were really enthusiastic about Ben Jealousies campaign against Larry Hogan that for a lot, of moderate Democrats in Maryland, it was good
to have a modern republican governor, because that took pressure off of them. Disorder deliver big left wing pledges seven and there's just absolutely none, and then in New York. You at the opposite thing. We're Andrew Como for years can help for public and stay in charge of the state Senate. France to choose its like. Almost never has a democratic governor away, because state party officials are kind of like tanking the races and grants have in most of these instances. It's not that they don't fight to win their own seats and get like their own political power. But this kind of spirit of like team play, unlike what we really want is to advance a maximum agenda. Just like does not really exist in instead politics for Democrats at an hasn't anywhere, and it s really so profoundly shapes how policy goes over the long term
we like in some ways. The divergences is only intensify, write, something I want to go back to something as I was talking about, and we ve been talking about this idea of populism and something that I think me couple other folks on your twitter, so said. Is that YO, if Trump were an actual populist and had basically kept up kind of what he was talking about and twenty fifteen between sixteen. And kind of subsumed himself to Mitch, Mcconnell ISM if you would be a much more popular and much more. Concerning for Democrats president, because you know think often of former Louisiana, governor and United States? Senator Huey long probably the most recognizable example of what a populist looks like in America until his Station in eighteen, thirty, five years, a very controversial figure, but he's also yeah. He set up the share our wealth programme, which was would have established a net assets tax and basically his plan was,
so that everyone will have a car, a radio and homework five thousand dollars. And you talking, but this nineteen, thirty, two and winning I'd interesting, because if were like that. If Duke knew, all the talk about infrastructure weeks actually meant something Michael Brendan Dougherty has a piece in national review. This we are talking about the populace steps that Trump could take and they Klute, the establishment of private worker collapse and workers councils of the kind that are in Europe and you're a act a far reaching infrastructure plan so that the America has the best roads and transportation hubs event actually populist trump were to do those things and if the judge o were not so obsessed with this idea that, in order to an order when they have to make it so that its not them winning its Democrats cannot win. That would be very concerning for Democrats, Zimmer there's a moment, early entry,
seventeen which Nancy close interaction were met with tromp cha talk about infrastructure. We could people like all this could actually happen, and then reality happened and it's just interesting to think of new that populism for trial was a vehicle rather than a belief system and its interesting to think of what would have been like. If it wasn't, you know, that's the thing we think about on that is right after the election were right after he one. There was this: Event, Renault and then there is this thing that happened with what was called. It the carrier. Airconditioning manufacture. Yes, I remember this yeah so TAT, had been he. It was all but unclear what role he played or didn't play a mess bodies base. They doing was going on twitter and he was cajoling and in congratulating companies for keeping jobs. In the? U s- and this is creating a very weird incentive structure, where companies that we're not going to take jobs, how did the? U S were saying? Oh yeah, welcome Donald Trump. If you give us a good Tweedle say we kept copies in here, for you
and that you are a great explain on at all of the time, but you really could soothe the beginnings of very dangerous and very crony capitalistic approach to governance, where, like Donald Trump issues like per Emily, cajoling companies about what to do and companies are pretending to do things in order to win favor from the government, but it would have been very if Donald Trump it really held to that communication strategy. If that had been like his big thing that that's what he was using Twitter for we single day, I, the com, this good like he be extremely? you are right, does a very deadly communication strategy. For for Democrats, let me just didn't I think he didn't, because I one he's up at interested to republic. Is data really like it, because I guess damn it went against over their ideas and unpopular republican elites in Congress and just come. I got off on his normal, trompe bullshit, but either these kind of like alternative trumps. The thing They gave out a common right of peace on this. Is that its very normal after he was a mid term for the president to
we position himself in between his party in Congress other party, I'm u size with books. In an ideal before he saw with Brok Obama in two thousand and ten, there is no other at all. The Donald Trump is going to try to do this. In doing that, is actually breaking from recent accepted and quite successful political practice right after the election. Instead of you know of dogma of it worked he fired off sessions and hired Whittaker and there's something into, about the way. Donald Trump can We be the lowest common denominator of himself and the existing Republican Party There is a much more potent political synthesis of those two operations they couldn't urge and adjust hasn't. You know, I think it is with his own dynamics, whatever it is, it's a real boomed democrats. It they're getting consistently the worst version of Donald Trump and not like the the politically savvy us. AIDS is a blunt Democrats, but but in the waterways I think a disaster for the car,
free rein. I mean because where we started this red is this: this kind of remorseless conservative machine rolling out across state legislatures in the country throughout the EU so branch unleashing this like profound. Anti populist anti democratic agenda, whose basic point is to curtail democratic input over economic policy make way, but then the the flaw, the bug in that kind of system, is that the President c is such an enormous prize in politics. White like the presidency, is something people really want. They really fight for in a way that it the state legislative seat isn't and it's not a cooperative game. Like you get a supreme. Court seat by make Everybody in the party be comfortable with you. You got to be
president by like beating other party leaders in a contested primary, and it's always the opportunity to like shit things up and and Donald Trump if you didn't like the persona he put forward during the twenty sixteen campaign, it was a persona that would have kicked, this system, out of its state of stasis, stupor right. You worry I'll, just stupor relic. It would have been a disruptive presence if he tried to govern the way Jane like you were, you were classing. He He would in some ways be a much more popular figure because he would have been pushing good ideas. It would have been Democrats, allow more uncomfortable terrain themselves, agreeing with him about some stuff. Even while fighting their friends, also would have had him fighting with the Republican Party and with the movers and shakers in the GNP, and you would have had
downstream consequences of that right, like state parties, would fragment into pro and anti trump factions, not based on persona, and you know how you talk but I'm like real issue ran, but instead from by a sort of making his peace with the conservative Borg. Left us in this situation. Where you know you can dream, I mean I hear Democrats like fantasize all the time, there's like you see like this threat to democracy is so much wider, so much deeper than Donald Trump we need to. Gwen every raced forever and destroy the conservative movement and insult the ground, and I don't know I mean I. I love you listen to this progress. You know I M not not soft, on the institutional conservative movement, but This is not going to happen. That's not like us on how politics rang works how politics works is that movements can have internal fights right and like Trump. As the opportunity to like
a meaningful dialogue about what they are trying to do, except the like Trump right. It wasn't like some delighted version of Trump phrase. Gonna lose this like actual guy, whose very seems re lazy, doesn't really know or care much about anything and is really into maintaining his golf courses, revenue stream and so I feel that we may have a backlash to the current moment, and then inevitably a backlash to that end. It just gonna wind. Is like would no change it all right, because I think that I have argued multiple times that during the twenty four to twenty six June campaign, Trump operated in a sense as a Tabula Raza, upon which various factions within the conservative movement, including very strong number of populist conservatives, the populace conservatives, who think that a war
curse, council and encouraging more Americans, do not go to college but get involved in the work for early in kind of you? How the german system separates between gymnasium and reassure us that this stronger worker they do better and more support. There is an idea of trump and which you could see that, and then the this issue for Trump, is that he be. Came president, and then none of this actually happened There is always every year for six years, there's a light. Can Democrats ever come back from this? Come Republicans ever come back from this? The answer is, of course, they can unite a party is like the whigs or something, but I do think it's interesting two postulate on what a conservative movement that is influenced by populism at its base would look like and not one that is worth willing, a wheeled populism, but generally against non white people. So what
one upon this book before I move on in its mortar to lay a delay, flag and ground for future conversation, but Matthew made point earlier that in some ways makes more sense for parties who dresses when the wind power than than when they lucid and the problem. There is at parties wind power and they won do their policy agenda. They want to do the process agenda, but I do it's beginning to change a bit and a democratic party. I think the democratic parties beginning to recognize it for its long term health and also for what it cares about it needs to have a democracy under the Democratic Party needs to be a party to begin to defend in and build out american democracy, so the first build that the Democratic House is planning to take up and pass is a pretty sweeping Belov pro democratic. Arms and anti corruption, reforms in and out of one a glass it here, but will go into it in a future weeds and beginning to see talk among the twenty. Twenty contenders devolve Patrick Jessica Profile than he was talking about democracy agenda. But I do think so. Keep an eye on it is these republican moves are beginning to credit counter
action on Democrats him and what that reaction is going to be is take things. Maybe they ve always supported like national automatic voter registration, or you know We'Ll- were formed. Curb gerrymandering and make it the first thing. They do if they get enough power to do things and not the thing that would have been nice if they had done it when they had enough power to do things, and I think the big I sure about whether or not this stuff and sticking on four Republicans or ends backfire on them, is whether or not they increased salience among Democrats enough to do to really change that. But that's a good topic for a few weeds. Now, let's take a break as do research paper and where things up, but often ask me of prosecuting the mob, is like the movies well there is violence. He cracks this guy over their head and pop. Just like a melancholy. There are heads so wasn't just permission to take a map and permission to take out his own nephew when, after taking down
over one hundred mobsters. I can tell you this the thing is much more interesting. Barely holding former mob prosecutor and host of the new podcast up against a mom the mob lift the veil on the world's most secretive criminal organization, La Cosa Nostra we'll talk to profit Peters former mobsters, an undercover agents and Ike Hollywood. All these stories are true new up loads drop every Wednesday starting September. Eighth list and follow up against the mob on Apple podcast Spotify or your favorite podcast app the cat, is a podcast from New York magazine, but it's It's more than that its thirty minutes. Week where we really wrestle with ourselves we're talking recital expectations, race, sex.
Career ambitions and our bodies, I just said Emma Instagram looking at health any size nutritionist take talks. And you know what I've got I'm a factor on the internet. They just come to me baby, the algorithm we're having conversations you'd only have with your most trusted friend, so Gabby. What were the most painful memories, I'm gonna go era, listen to the cut on Spotify Apple or your favorite podcast up. What are we going, Sesar. I we will find many interesting paper today. It's called the parties in our heads, misperceptions about party composition and their consequences. Its by galler and garage sued and what they do ABC, put a survey out into the field and they ask people who is in the Democratic Party who is in the Republican Party and specific
they were asking about. You know what they can avoid. Termed stereotypical members of the parties were percentage democratic party. We gay. What percentage of it was african American? What percentage belong to a union represented the Republican Party earns more than two hundred. Thousand dollars a year. What percentage is made up of senior for percentages, evangelical Christians and what they found Is it head on in general, misperceptions party composition, are really high and among the opposite party there incredibly high, but such a remarkable step in general? People think the thirty two sent of Democrats or algae BT. The action of six percent and thirty eight Pinta verbal begins, earned over two hundred and fifty thousand dollars per year? The action of this two percent, that I find really striking about this paper is he did a secondary analysis in which they looked at. How do we numbers change and very as political interests and which is to say, the information like how much political media you actually consume rise, because I think it
idealize concept of of how politics works. The or information you have the clear picture you have. That was true here in seven of the eight conditions, the only exception being the number Republicans make up more than two hundred fifty thousand easier, but in seven of the conditions, having more Information about politics lead, you believe the other side was or Does any side was more stereotypical than it actually was Democrats for more gave and actually worthy the Republicans for more evangelical than they actually are and thought. I is in some ways it's a really interesting statement about media dynamics and what picture the parties are? giving themselves in and are giving to each other about about who is in them right. I was kind of a standard responders thought that thirty nine point three percent of Democrats belong to a Labour union. Only ten point, five percent, do, and it is interesting how this paper really goes into a kind of can
explanations of how the groups that are within these parties and that you are, when you hear terms like Democrat or Republican, you, a picture emerges, and that picture is often apparently not true. That's interesting of just like overestimating! The share of party stereotypical groups ill, what does say about these parties, and how does that influence? the dynamic and how does the media dynamic influence those parties themselves like if the my credit party, if it thinks of itself as being highly elder BT, does that make the Democratic party more interested in pursuing in favour of algae, BT, equality and if they you, if they were more aware of the fact that this isn't a large group, the party? Would that change anything? What I also wonder about this- and I hope the academics are the world- well- will actually do it, but I want you
is how much this changes over time cried because this the study we're talking about it now and it was published, a few months ago, but this always were connected twenty fourteen fifteen twenty eight feel agreed. Media stereotyping of the parties can often change a lot right, and so like post trump? There's this? Like over emphasis, I would say in the opposite direction, on the idea that, like Publicans. Are these like incredibly down fraud in you know like all like the dusky, unemployed call, minors are something which is so at odds with this. Like view Democrats. Have that, like all Republicans, are super duper, rich from this array, so I would love to see like how much is that changed. And, by the same token, right Oji between Quality issues have diminished, somewhat in terms of how silly
they are in national politics, white like there was a time right around the big Obama flipped flop on merit quality the Supreme Court decision right when this was like something you are hearing about all the time right, and so the idea that Democrat were the Party of Gay rights. Here, as an important constituent element was like that, was accurate and see you then move to the misleading. In France. There is a large proportion of them are themselves gay right, whereas today I mean you could read political stories for a modern way, yet might not really get the sense that Nancy Policy and Donald Trump are arguing about, attribute equality, breast they most our trading and to continue to be important to pause, if you play- but this is like not white official political arguments are out, and so you might see her a real, what we're receding kind of air. On the other hand, it seems like days, you might get the impression that, like something
Finally, large share of Democrats are immigrants right. So many things I think- is an interesting elected to look at one. It was really in the news when this happened, look an atheist what's so into me, so reality? Eight point: seven percent of Democrats are atheist for agnostic, among Republicans, they think thirty, six percent, I'm aggressor or atheist or agnostic. Democrats. Twenty four point: five percent are one of the things it was real, Fascinated me about the study on one when I dug into in Tibet was how close the misperceptions Parties are within the parties to what the other party beliefs about it. So you know that, over two hundred and fifty thousand dollars a year mark for the Republican Party. Yes, it's true that forty foot, that Democrats think forty four percent of Republicans earned over two hundred fifty thousand dollars, but Republicans think thirty. Four percent. Do in terms of what percentage Democratic Party are union members, yet true that Republicans think its forty three percent, but Democrats think its thirty seven,
and so my hypothesized mechanism for what was going on here, if you learn about the other party through media affiliated to your radiological tendency. If you're learning about the Democratic Party from Fox NEWS, when Fox NEWS talks about the Democratic Party, it's like San Francisco, liberal Nancy PLO see angry black woman vaccine water is right, like they ve got all these stereotypes and stereotypes are very heavily built on top of these on demographic composition, issues so they are looking for Democrats to go after who demographics, are going to activate the base and- and the same is true with did with say, MSNBC the Republican Party. It's like a real focus on the Coke brothers in and folks of that nature, but that can be happening or that can at least be the main mechanism. Because of seeing this Inter party to write that that's not Democrats? Not learning about the Democratic Party from Fox NEWS, Republicans are not learning about the Republican Party from MSNBC says something what's going on here,
I did wonder a little bit. I think a bit your point, Matt if people are making reasonably valid, inferences downward, what they're trying to say sometimes in pulling people- saying what the pole is measuring, Amr with the pulse, trying to and you know terms of how much of their public and party seems to be like oriented, turns help. People who earn over two hundred fifty thousand dollars a year. I think forty five percent of its efforts- is a reasonable estimate. You know and similar like you- need to have an outside share power, the Democratic Party, so they could get into something we're what people are trying to reflect as what they think the parties are actually do. And there they re framing that in question. They ve been given here, but something interesting here, there's really complicated by how close the perceptions are between the two parties. I think it's interesting, because there is kind of the parties themselves and the perceptions of those parties and their choose.
But things, and yet I really think that this is based on your point that this is about what use based on the priorities of the It is you know like that headache national convention and twenty. Sixteen was very proud of the fact that it had no trans people speaking on stage and that that is a statement that you are making this a priority for your party, but it- does not necessarily mean tat. This makes a large piece of your parties pie so to speak, but I think that that so interesting about the idea priorities risk becoming none necessarily being a reflection of whose in your protein, who isn't but somehow be coming back, and I do think it is, it helps you think, about the contested zone of american policy. Swear like the real sort of swing. People in recent american politics have been white p ball in the north, who are not evangelical questions, but who are
also, probably not gay, not union. Members. Right like this is the group that Obama one twice, but that gave a lot of midwestern states tore Publican control in mid terms that costs one towards Trump that, if swung back away from Trump group of people that is not represented in parties. Stereotypes well I'd like to think of us stereotypical Republican he's, rich or in church. All the time and a Democrat is like part of a minority identity group of some kind or another and there's a kind of generic modal American who is now strongly reflected in either of these stereotypical coalitions, and to do the extent of people are thinking less of issues and more like what
the party that people like me are in right right, that's a group of people who don't think that either party is the party for people who work for people like me right. I would be curious to see what this looks like in ten years. I would use one of the most fascinating transitions last ten years and Ultra BT rights, is this idea that your sexual orientation or gender identity could in fact be separate from how your political perceptions work? And I see that every time the New York Times runs a piece about and gay conservatives and you a gay couple that supports Ben hangs out with Donald Trump Junior they, which there was a couple just profiled last week, and unlike this, really is a marker for progress, that gay people and straight people can all make decisions that I find mildly questionable. Equality,
ok and one that we should bring this absurd to an end, thanks Jane for joining us in our little schedule shake up at thanks, as always to our producers. Griffin, tenor of you listeners out there and the weeds will be back on Friday is a applied cast from New York magazine, but it's it's more than that, its thirty minutes week, where we really wrestle with ourselves. We're talking societal expectations, race, sex career ambitions and our bodies. I just said Taiwan Instagram, looking at health, Any size nutritionist take talks, and you know I've I'm a factor on the internet. They just come to me baby, the algorithm.
We're having conversations you'd only have with your most trusted friend, so Gabby. What were the most painful memories? I'm gonna go era, listen to the cut on Spotify Apple or your favorite podcast, app
Transcript generated on 2021-09-11.