« The Weeds

Obama's Legacy, debating single payer, and Obamacare's jobs impact


Matt, Sarah, and Ezra reflect on Obama's successes and failures, take a look at Hillary Clinton's new attack on Bernie Sanders, and consider some research on the new health law's surprising lack of impact on the labor market.This episode is brought to you by Squarespace. Start building your website today atSquarespace.com. Enter offer code WEEDS at checkout to get 10% off. Squarespace—Build it Beautiful.

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
This week's episode of the weeds has brought you buy square space start building a website today it square space, dot com and your offer code weeds, attacker, get ten percent off swear space build a beautiful. The following podcast contains explicit. language. I'm outlasts, why not even green level low welcome to another episode of the weeds foxes policy focused on the panoply network method. Glazier sat with Miss always, as my colleagues are cliff in Israel America's not as always, but as regards pounds wounded, hasn't happened yet as it enters back. I enjoy the last weeks, as will the Swedes, because then I could listen to it and not know what happened. Yeah yeah, sorry,
spans, and I learned a lot about immigration. You're right I mean it was, you know, Dar was excellent and you know with you. You like to have a sort of a no spoilers by causing the twists and turns are really. I think what makes this show how we basically like cereals, regret the cop hangers. It's like you want to know what will happen at the end right. Will Congress Toby gridlock, speaking of which we had a state of the union address this week? We did it was the in the White House is parlance, thematic, you so this Obama's final state of the union, and It is by the way, amazing, if you go online, any search pictures of his first state of the union and has been, and the one that happened this week, because his age, but seven hundred and nine years he really really really looks older, but this final stage of the union and twenty cause. I saw a lot of journalists snarking about this, but I thought they actually do. The White House had previewed part of state of the union
Can you do less of a policy laundry list and more of a thematic look at where vain and where we're going, and I think we are on a survey that they pay. A pretty well? It was a lot less of policy laundry list and it wasn't, I think, even really speech riding decision. They have accepted They are not going to get anything through Congress, there's not a ton they're trying to do things kind of action by another. Big executive actions like an immigration, are largely stalled. Vienna. They were kind trying to sum up this era in american life that they ve been part of any did that in a couple of pieces aid, they they split the speech into what was functional realistically form. And peace. One was about the economy and where it's going, peace to Who was I'm so? Peace was peace to peace. Three with foreign policy peace force, broken politics. What was peace to ask? Request? but it was a kind of broader view about how Obama sees sees what's coming down the pike, and I thought it, useful to focus at least for a moment on the fourth that, if it cause, I thought,
That was where Obama seemed in some ways was. passionate and in other ways most frustrated Obama has a common whether you like these accomplishments or not a really tremendous amount in american life. He will stack up Just in terms of the sheer amount of legislation he passed through Congress. I was genuinely important in transformative. You know, among that the really consequential presidents of the 20th century, but He did so in a way that betrayed his, can is initial rationale for being an American deferred for being politics. If we go back to two thousand and four, when it comes on the scene at the Dnc or to designate in his campaign his Harry over and over and over again the divisions in american political life that are grid, locking research. Keeping things from getting gun are energy illusory or their being peddled by conflict merchants. You know in America
takes or on the tree or special enshrined by special interests, which I think is actually really important to the sort of failure of this. The hijacked is that he put a lot of emphasis, particularly as a candidate, on the idea that is very popular with the mass public, that special interest groups and lobbyists are like the pop up right, that is preventing problems from being solved, and he had a list of specific reforms on those points Some of them were were done by congressional democrats. Two thousand seven. He was gonna refused, higher people for executive re, except when he didn't where you haven't, you won't have now, but we re not an aspect which is only to save it. He had this very clear theory: the american politics. He was gonna prejudice, devise that was going to allow him to get things done, an ultimate The irony of the Obama presidency is: he got more of what he said. He would get done done than I think anybody really could have expected. Obamacare Dodd Frank, with stimulus of financial risk,
you, I mean it am opening our relations with Cuba negotiating a nuclear with IRAN, killing Some of them are, then, there's been a longer list of achievement and again you you can think these are bad are good, but they they happened. Then ice really would have predicted in two thousand and seven, but he did it not by bridging the divides in american politics by widening them. Obama is most polarizing president, we ve had since the advent of polling, although before him the most pausing restored, Stubby Bush before George W Bush is Bill Clinton. So there is clearly a structural trend there, and in many cases he made decisions to prize getting the policy through like passing. the care on a partisan vote to or doing an executive action to try to move his immigration policies forward in way Did he knew would exacerbate these partisan tensions and last night at the end of his speech here
in any actually said that the most important thing he was going to say that night was that the american people needed that that is, if they're gonna get the future, that is over things. We can continue to get better. They would need to find a way to fix their broken. Politics said that bit there was not going to be as bright a future for the countries who should be unless someone figured out how to fix politics in and what's interesting things in Obama, really I died and it didn't work it and I think, if anything, actually discredited a very popular approach to how you would fix american politics anything he or really anyone else has planned. At this point, I think is a great question that is opened by the Obama era. As a question of like what does it mean to be broken if you look at Obama's record, you could look at the policy accomplishments and say like he did not have a broken presidency. He was there. president out of our own. Dozens of tribes, there's not the many presidents, but of many every president of the twelve countries try to best healthcare and no one else has done it. Acceptance,
I understand you know his arguments and you kind of get this common sense idea that either we should have more civility and like more agreement and more of this common ground, but also seems like the Obama administration is an example of how antithetical getting things John Today, too, if you look at the Obama CARE, for example, if common ground has been praised over policy that we would not have health or foreign law. We would just be where we were pre. twenty tat right, we saw last year and twenty fifteen I fully substantial amount, get done on a bipartisan basis as well. And so I am a little- maybe like less down than you guys are on the prospects for bipartisan legislating, as as a thing that you can do if the product Forces are configured right which to me is interesting about it. Is that even doing that does not actually lower the temperature right and they like when George W Bush was present. You reference that at the time he was in office
He was also the most polarizing president, never in terms of public opinion, but his legislative record was much more bipartisan than Obama's was well democratic senators voted for his terrible attacks got bill. You got like two or three for his Medicare bill, actually more telling the that they voluntarily didn't filibuster. It went have so you know everything it was their child left behind is very bad. News has only hundreds, it cried Kennedy my Partisan and matches Democratic Kennedy, but I think you got ninety seven votes in the Senate, something like that and so with Obama, you had some very partisan legislating the first two years and you it's very partisan. Hostility to Obama begins took over and then eventually you had them sitting down at the table and doing allotted deal making and getting a lot of things done across the aisle. But none of that has changed the fact with Bush was. President Obama was president that the structure of american opinion is just incredibly polarized and in a way that opinion piece of it just seems,
really really natural. You look back at these old Paul's words, like fifty nine percent of Democrats think Eisenhower's a great president, but only seventy percent Publicans think he's a great president in local. Why? What was he doing Why why? Why didn't? He do more stuff that Republicans liked knowing that it would alienate some Democrats, because you would think of republican present- would want to do for people type stuff. No, we read about Eisenhower right turns out. He didn't really why orbit and but also the answer. I mean you, U Britain about this, but I think it's worth drawing out here that isn't it it is a rare. then phenomena in american politics that party poles in ideological polarization have mapped onto rather that you used to have liberals in the republic parties to have conservatives in the Democratic party. So the idea of what a Democrat liked really change if your tongue, but a Democrat from Massachusetts or Democrat from Alabama, and so that kept the parties from acting in really unified,
Is it exacerbated, and especially on the presidential level. The parties have gotten better, pose ninety seventies at making sure that they nominate presidents who stand for whatever it is that they stand for books, Republicans are being a little of a bit odd this year, but you used to have things were like as a hail, Mary Pass, Republicans having lost a million elections in a row. We're like. Let's get this popular general. You know There is one with them, and then Democrats in eighteen. Seventy six appointed Jimmy Carter who, like nobody, knew and, about and had almost no recorded in public life So you don't see that anymore, and it just seems to me it's easy to sort of caste aspersions on, though ugliness of political discourse, but if you're going to have two parties, it makes sense for them to stand for distinctive things it makes sense for them to nominate presidential candidates who espouse their parties agenda, and it makes sense for them to disagree rather vehemently about it
of things which strikes me as dangerous is the dynamic we had in twenty eleven twenty twelve and to an extent in twenty thirteen we sometimes seem like Republicans in Congress, would prefer to disagree more than they would prefer to advance some aspect of a conservative agenda there, was a kind of a principled unwillingness to do a deal got over that Obama got over that and they ve been doing things. Where were they disagree? They dont like each other. They don't agree with each other's agendas, but, like most groups of people they have sort of Jeff ranked orders of priorities and can usually swap things work things out. We haven't had these kind of weird debt ceiling blow up sent and things like that in any It actually strikes me as a situation that is more ok, even Obama meted out to be. Let me actually make the case not for pessimism years, having there's a lot that I agree with what you say, but that
A closer read of the Obama error I can reveal something, though less rosy, so on the one hand assesses he gets a tremendous amount on, but really Obama's legislative achievements happen in the first two years at the presidency. They happen very, very, very fast and they happen, because a massive financial crisis, combined with a totally catastrophically unpopular and mismanaged war, create a democratic Senate majority that attains for a kind of brief moment. five months, a super majority in the U S Senate and that basically never happens in market politics. Last time any party had sixty or more in the sand. Had been in the seventies a really really really long time and not occur, stimulation of events. You actually work to have happening very often in american politics re. Do that with things it get you that kind of majority in a political system like this one are not are not good things to have so absent that, You see the major accomplishments of the Obama, arrogant, wiped out, then
You got a sort of what mats talking about more recently, which is we have had a very you know released reasonably productive, congressional twenty fifteen, and what I think has been interesting about that my fourteen in and we ve, talked about the sun on previous episodes of the show which you should download us into an view on Itunes. Is that those issues were done. No way that left his little time in room is possible for the public to be part of that process, that the kind of innovation insofar so far as there was one was that it was possible to passengers nation, but only if Obama stayed out of it, only fit state off of cable news. Only people basically didn't know is happening, and only if the two parties weren't polarized on it to begin with, and so the idea that you can bills, her nobody's top priority or anywhere near their top priority. It's true,
when I think it's a good kind of pressure on the system, but I dont think it helps us out much in terms of some that, generally, the big reason and because her big parties in american life there commercial. I mean immigration here being up a pretty good examples, something that at something really felt both parties wanted to get done and and and very much couldn't, but I think of care is gonna normally be in this category. Two, I think a lot of things that really matter be here and so I think I'm the one hand if you need a the sort of majorities. We saw no nine and ten to get anything done, you're, just not going to see that very often so the bar to getting big things done is going to be too high to virtually ever be. other push back on that a little bit like one thing. I look out from the last year that I thought was a big deal lavishly, because my healthcare nerd is this big Medicare reform package, those past that actually was able to fund. Medicare, which is something they ve been trying to do for decades with toxic any read any listeners, there's podcast castle be familiar or you can go back and archive as he suggests
is an issue I kind of go back and forth and how to think about it. On the one hand, it was a bit more in the weeds, then the care than handing out insurance cards. three engineer it could Nepal rising issue. There is space, it's a big healthcare. She with lots of money. It's how we structure. healthcare system is so deems it. You do at least seven one example of a health care issue that affects a really big part of our health care system. Being able to move through the system and nice bipartisan way. So I agree with you on its him portents, but I don't agree with you that it kind of countless import into most people suffering is actually goes back to something Matt said a low, but early on, which is it Obama had viewed in his own campaign that a real big obstructive progress were special interests. But we're seeing right now is that the kind of thing that can occasionally get done are issues
special interests are the only ones who care some level adding and our get a dry this through, so that the Medicare Don Fix is a very big deal to the men. Go to the hospital industry, to the doktor lobbies to tell them, but but most people never fucking heard of it the life and they never missing, and then I think to like the big tax build. It gets pass a couple not not longer out all, maybe a couple weeks or months that seven hundred billion Scots into it- marries a lot of corporate lobbying with groups it of focus on poverty reduction. I think that if either of these, This had been done away where they were out in the public debate for a couple months. One they would have died, which is a problem, but to I just think that they do not have dynamics it of generalised to something like an old all of our education or tax reform or the things it Some of that sum, the bigger picture topics it you're gonna need to have a process. It involves a publican on some other like I'm.
little bit uncomfortable with the idea that the way the only way to legislate in a country, this polarized is to basically make the on Thursday passive on Friday. I have done on Saturday. I agree with you, except I'm more comfortable with that, and I am to me I feel like that was Obama's problem here. He says in the speech- and he also says in private and if you talk to his team, that they all profess to not know the answer to this, but the fact is that they do not know the answer, and you see that they know the answer, because I ve been doing it for the past year, the past eighteen months. The answer is you try to keep the public disengaged you try to make a deal with the stakeholders. You try to seal it all up in secret. you try to get it done fast. It works fine, it's just not something that they are comfortable with, so they dont want to say like and state of the union, No, I wanted to transcend the
says that divide us, and it turns out this way to do that- is to encourage you guys did not pay that close attention. I mean he's giving a lot of speeches about control which is like, if you look in a textbook for an example of an issue that like has a lot of sound and fury relative to the actual policies significance. There look at my gun proposals, so we'll just keep talking about that. Keep talking about that, keep talking about that and in the media I'm legislate on and all these other friends think it like. As I was saying, these aren't like big ticket issues, we could say that go violet really want to make like. I met a Kara forms speech. Okay I dont know that it's either you by the way that we are talking about as much. Much also link is the public even instead their legislating on issues that are going to be of less interest to the pub David. You know that's great the public
de as about what's this area and how they? How does your relative optimism here fit with the sort of America's doomed kissing his front? For those who don't know, and you should you should go- go to Google Machine Search Box, American as he is doing. It you'll find a great, a really great peace format about sort of fun mental tensions in the american political system that, in his view, organ led to a constitutional crisis, one reason why I am relatively upbeat about twenty fifteen, I think about other people s you have to do that. That level setting erected. My my prior coming into this was that it was not possible to bring back the kind of transactional politics that could make highly polarized parties work. I think that may still be correct, that particular circle chances of twenty fifteen were a little unusual in terms of jobs. Being sort of looking to get out the door, Barack Obama being a lame duck
Reed looking to retire, I mean we may not be able to bring back the glorious spirit of a backroom deals that that made that work. But I do think that relative to the alternative, which is ultimately guns in the streets and stuff, like that, it looks pretty good, but I think we sort of want to discuss at another time. I wanted to try to talk about another aspect of of Obama's legacy, which is that he he proclaims that sport stuff to be his big, would about his time in office, and I always find that to be a little bit self indulgent
when me was new in office and the economy was collapsing, his team is comes. We cannot make advisers put out a report making the case for their stimulus spell, and it warned that without the stimulus, unemployment would go its highest ten percent and it might linger as high as ten percent for like a year and then it would eventually come back down. You know within a three for your time span the actual outcomes we got wit. The stimulus were significantly worse than the no stimulus scenario in that report and the cheap shot you can take. A demonstration is like laws. feels failed. If you know the story, you know that what happened was is that the data that they had there been revised downwards report, as you were saying, came out during this was done during the transition period. The transition is done. You know right when things began. The bottom began to Father the economy exactly so it turns out the actual situation in the fourth quarter of of twenty two dozen aid, it was
was much much worse right it. I remember the numbers here: they thought the GDP was shrinking and negative three and whose action the neighbourhood of negative nine year was fence ballpark, so just fucked why so it was a terrible, so procedural. I don't want to ass this as like. Like her like they screwed up. You know like you get it, but the point is that as a matter of political rhetoric right where they were putting out. There was a ten percent unemployment and then lingering above eight percent, for you was an obviously unacceptable outcome. That was meant to be a knock down argument in favour of taking further action, but that's what they got and so you can let it gave this question with veterans of administration- and very ways, was there any way to get a better stimulus. Should they aware that there are systematically correlated over optimism from early GDP reports during recessions. I think maybe someone should look that up, even if you think they will blame
that they did, and I think this is a sort of like if you, if you talk to people who were involved I mean they will seriously insist you that they were Zero tactical or strategic error is that were made that it was literally nothing. They could have done differently to get Three dollars more of stimulus in their budgets seems inherently implausible, like I'm having talked a lot about a lot of them about this, I don't think that's a totally fair, characterised sharing position. At any rate, I think new. I think they would argue that they were is pretty close to the edge of the possible that there word decisions you could make, it would have been different and those decisions might have paid off a little bit. They might have backfired on you, but that they really feel they got to a first approximation. What you can get out of the political system right, but even if that's true, Bronco Mama's, big gray,
about. His presidency ought to be that millions of Americans spent years on em laid pressed and the impact on people's well being for that kind of thing is awful. not just in material terms but in psychological terms, and it has had an obvious carrying impact on the public mood, not because pundits on television are like saying bad shit, but because really bad stuff happen in the treaty in their rhetoric- and I understand why this is their mentality as a good example of awesome. They are because they, as a group of policy, monks and political leaders, were dealt. This really terrible hand
true right at me, like relative to other newly elected President Obama, has dealt a really should hand, but relative to the average American Obama's hand, was fine. He was present to the United States in a lot of people lost their homes. I like or of arm a lot, and I think that the average journalists sort of like underwrites Obama and his presidency, but I do really feel that, like a bomber himself and the members of his team kind of overweight, his presidency by candlelight yadda gadding, pass this and comforting themselves with the thought that the Europeans it is even more screwed up which doesn't make any sense to I've, got to things worth saying and then I'd everything this. What do you know something to it, but the dupe things I'd say that that are worth thinking about from there as understanding their worldview.
Is one- and this goes to the issue of level setting at this point. They look back at the data and they they look both at the European Union and sort of other developed countries during the financial crisis, but they also look a lot back to the great depression which the collapse in magnitude was on the order of workers. the great depression, and they they compare it. To that and the really hard thing about having discussions about about my record is it. It is continuously a question of. What do you think is the true counterfactual, what think would have been possible. If we had done more already think would be possible if we done different policies, they make the counterfactual the great depression which take a really good about another. Russia's make Counterfactual Europe, which I Moselle Sceptical, because Europe had this of Euro Zone currency issue, the we didn't have actually done worse than us, I think has of factors that would that we don't get credit for, but I do think that the financial rescue played out better than most analogous efforts
story have, but I do think that when one Obama says when the folks administration talk about american politics, this way I think two degree rating. That's what they're actually talking about the reason that they have developed a deeper kind of political pessimism is that they feel all that under an they worry that that, under any kind of reasonable working political system, they should have been able, as the data worsen to do more than they should able to work with Republicans that that, when a bomb came in Republican should have been eager to work with him on a stimulus. Alot of them had stimulus plans of selves and, in the end, not a single House republican vote of the stimulus, an end to them. The problem and american politics it that that they ve of uncovered. Is it even in a emergency scenario like that, when even in a place where the bottom is out of the economy. You have a new and popular president is pretty untouched by the fight of the last couple of years, a poet,
being Obama, was in many ways more salient political incentive thing kind of joining in on the recovery effort You know end and to be further problems here. They believe heaved and in many cases due to longstanding LISA, held in some cases due to brand doubly so they found that what oh I was doing was was bad was problematic their wise. Since a lot of deficit concerned, then that there is the sudden. Not now you ve not made more sense to run a deficit then, and so I do think that there is a real connection in the Obama administrations? Thinking between them? issue of? They were not able to break through the politics and the policy failures, because I think that this is a group of people who have a lot of technocratic confidence, that they have the right answers and their view of what went wrong insofar as things went wrong, is that they were not able to find the right answers for how to unlock a political consensus necessary, but those answers into play,
once a lot of data came in. I think the EU in them have not exactly but broadly somebody's what should have been furthered and help recovery, but they felt that there was nothing they could have, there's something you are able to do in the political system that more stimulus and so on became at a certain point. Your basically impossible, and so I That is something they don't explained very well because of this kind. Tension between celebrating the policy achievements and bemoaning their political failures. They should keep these two things separate system, not money. The message, but I think the real version of the political could take is not just that. It's sad that Who are arguing, but did it's dangerous, that we can come to agreement even in crisis? situations where, where action is it actually is really Paramount the aims you could see similar things and Obama care where you have. We haven't done many health insurance expansions. We don't know how many people exposed to cover. They are really excited and the state of union last night there's covered eighty million people kind of brush aside the
Scipios that it should be covering more like twenty eight million we role at this point, you have like there's yawning gap that kind of gets brushed aside. You have governors who are not standing. Medicaid, who you know democratization would say anything that's. Also of these are people who, like literally, are not able to pay their health insurance bills right now. Because of this, regions that are being made- and the above administration, with the view that we know how to fix it, as we always have ideas, this gridlock around it. I wonder what scares I'll bet again, though, to think about, in terms of the Obama like a sea what it leaves behind for them, here comes next, any whether things I feel like, I see you, Obama says in his state of the union that one of his big regret is that this lack of political unity doesn't seem to be any great. The candidates care too much about. I think you know of they look at the Obama legacy. You don't see much about reaching across the aisle you don't see, and obviously primary seas, and maybe I will changes we shift in that the general, but I think it's pretty,
there is a candidate to see. If I want to get policy, John to do that is not through these deals that are key to see like in the nineties that its through, I guess getting us if a majority through these backroom deals of twenty fifteen. But it's the lesson there taking away of like what can I learned from the Obama presidency is drill down on my side. and talk less about these big collaboration, and so I think this is actually a really interesting theme or that or sub theme of of the twenty sixteen presidential campaign. I think you're right to pull it out. On the one hand, I think you're republicans, who believe correctly that if any of them, elected. It will only happen in a context where they hold the house in the Senate. Now they won't probably- Super majority in the Senate will be subject to the filibuster, but the filibuster has been weakened by Democrats and in twenty thirteen republic College is get rid of it entirely if they so choose there is this incredible reconciliation process which keeps getting expanded in which a lot of republican policies on taxes on reforming Medicare
social security medicate all that could go through much a reconciliation and not only its fifty one votes something too to the republican candidate, It is not at the moment a particular salient concern because of a plan to govern as Obama did no nine and ten based party lie aggressive party line votes. I think the Democrats really do have a problem here, because they know they're, not gonna, get a democratic house and so what you In an Andrew broke up, our colleague just come back from. I won right, a really great peace or put it in show notes. about why he why Bernie Sanders really looks like he might when Iowa and a really smart point Andrew makes an heiress of it. Bernie Sanders has picked up a particular strain of critique of Obama. That a lot of Democrats have been produced, forgotten a little bit and send us keeps talking about political revolution and the basic thing he is arguing as it were. happened to Obama's presidency,
and the reason many liberal show that he betrayed the promise of that presidency is that he would and, as you know, the greatest political organizer in recent american history right. No other presidential candidate had that been able to create bound to sustain such a phenomenal organization that involves so many new entrance into the budget process and then he got into office and he became the legislator and chief, as opposed to the organizer and chief, he went into an entirely inside game. He was negotiating with Congress, making backroom deals not trying to creep public. pressure using this kind of mass organizing for America Group that he had Santos, saying that real change only comes and people are involved and that you know he's going to the political revolution. By now seizing to organise, he will not go like Obama did and become the inside game player. I That is a here is an unlikely scenario,
that I think are reasons I probably wouldn't work going down to the fact that a lot of support for Democrats is not in places where Republicans get their votes right. Gerrymandering made this pretty asymmetric. In terms of who you can. as and where, but its working in Clinton. Couldn't, doesn't have an answer on this at all this sort of implicit answers, killer Clinton knows The system works and is sort of more bad hardened and cynical and jaded, and aware of these issues than Obama was when he came into office, but saying you can asked or broken system is not a is and your argues not a very compelling thing to say to Democrats who don't want eight years of the last four years who want early Obama, not late Obama in terms of what is happening, Washington and included, has not been able to come up with an answer on that lets us up properly in and talk about the campaign. That's that's emerging because I
if you're not following this, I think a lot of people have been mostly reading about, though the republican campaign cause it's sort of awesome, but Bernie Sanders has been slowly but surely rising in national Paul's he's fine. remind so he's always pulled really well in New Hampshire, now he's is in some in samples in Iowa, is as well and people are thinking willing when Iowa and while I still think everyone I mean, I I think the cinders campaign would agree that they are underdogs in this race. You know If you, when I awoke and then you when New Hampshire who's to say right, I mean it's it's worth thinking about, and the Clinton campaign is taking. The Sanders islands in a notably more serious way over the past couple weeks. They is to have a campaign that was very focused on Hilary and on talking, at Hilary and on speaking through the groups that they thought we're gonna be enthusiastic about him
but now they ve started talking about burning. They are hitting him from the left, I'm guns they are doing a. I think, clever and policy sophisticated left right, combo jab on him on bank regulation arguing, essentially that his break up the bank's plan. Is he sounds tough, but that is a little bit simplistic and it actually leaves out huge sectors of of the financial system, which is a good way of making the argument that they want to make, which is that she is a more experienced, more sort of savvy, more knowledgeable operator who, even though her position and so- schematic way is more moderate than Sanders is actually does more and covers more and reflects a better understand the situation. They ve also attempted a similar move on health care. In a way I would call less. persuasive so soon
Is it advocates of a single pair healthcare system he characterizes Medicare for every one system. We have talked about this idea before it show the reasons to think this may not work in the United States or art or could be could be unworkable. It certainly politically unlikely that the argument Chelsea Clinton, made this argument. Directly is that this means that Sanders wants to repeal Obama, care and repeal Medicaid and get rid of s chip, and then a cold health insurance and that it can get rid of matter rather Tellson S, rugged right eye and give it and making it more apparent, so sometimes give Republican, and she said- and this is important right- Srebrenica southern rival begins permission to get rid of all that right exactly so here we're going from theirs elements of that that are technically true, like that state children's health insurance. I am really would be eliminated and really all Medicare so, like that's true getting rid of Medicare like that's just false, but the big idea here is this
set of Sanders coming in proposing this l and then it just sort of dying in Congress, because why would report confirms that bill? is, that centres is gonna collaborate with congressional republicans to scrap all these programmes because Sanders and Republicans both agree that those programmes or are not optimal. Cinders has like a of long record in Congress. He voted for Obama care. He voted for S. Chip he's in four Medicaid many times you can get into sort of arguments with them about the logic of this and in a kind of like debaters, trick kind of way. I think this course and points, but in a like who are you kidding way? I get it doesn't make any sense right that I spent this morning. There'll be a story and boxed outcome by time. This pot cast a highly who worked, so it's a great will have decided. You could read the story very soon by removing the Clinton campaign about this this morning and you the thing, though, refer to as standards at a twin thirteen single payer bell? That kind of it looks really similar. Canadian single payer system, where each state run
on plans. You'd have like Massachusetts Plan in Rhode, island plan just like it has. I am sure why do I think that everyone knows is beginning? Has it gonna, Terrio platinum of Quebec planning? It is so funny you think everybody knows. Court has not terrio plan and a call back. What like he'd economic got. If that's the most natural peace legs, whatever could have come out of your mouth after, like everybody knows, is not expecting. Canada has about Terry Overland. The federal government provides funding for health, as everyone has rights, any sort of marine mom minimum standards right suicide Your plan has to accomplish certainly gloves they like a schedule and wants to cover dental care, and I'm just gonna name. Finally, can eighty hadn't haven't says are not avert the great territory to the north is really into vision, like Likud stack that on top that in my country, my said a little? the argument that the Clinton campaign is making to me today over email was equal.
Keener with these state based plans? Republicans of refuse to expand Medicaid, unlike its kind of bizarre theory is mad mentioned, but I get the theory. They seem too about, is one where Sanders and Republicans would collaborate to pass this bill and Republicans day a hive got you and not participate. However, no one kind of fun all this is there's a fallback if the state so do this, the federal government much like they do with Healthcare Gov steps it action is useful to look at this moment? It is a you. Do get a lot of political attacks of this kind of. trying to trick the robes form, which is fundamental think what basis which is An issue here is that if you look at that plan, there are minimum standards. Much like there are in Canada, as everyone knows as everyone, and so you have to do something about my care. Has this quality already? I dont think most people do notice, but starting, I believe, twenty seventy, but might be twenty eighteen. There is a state waiver system within Obama care where you know that part
held in human services and say I can get Obama carers goals dine in a different way for this money and if you know, you're able to persuade them, you don't have to have an individual mandate. You dont have to have the yoga their structure can be doing something told this is our mind whatever might want to do in this area. There is a one sided built into Obamacare to this This plan comes out. This is one of many can a single parish ideas. He support, over the years it comes out in an in a pre obamacare era, and its power actually rather quiet out, came out in TWAIN. Thirteen. About their Laroche different serve, and he is still, I would say, it's fair to say he supported this post Soviet MC hair right, yea Arab solely of this is a plan to expand the bomb care waivers. No, no. This is is out. No. This is his single pair plan from twitter chain is. it's not you. It's scraps, the exchanges get really exchanges. Every state moves to their own state, basing obey our plan right. The right to do in that case is just a single pair plus one bus,
Yes, but you wouldn't be wavering. Everyone cling campaign is witnessing by this. Is that in their hypothetical Bernie Sanders would be president right rights. True president Sanders after creating a state based single payer program that includes waivers courting quote, could This is the hose waivers to Duke something crazy, but why would he like what? What? What is the actual level of concerted this conduct? This point one may come out with if there's a history of single payer plans and support as part of the little mid two thousands unrest, Feingold is one of these people, and others were who thought may be. The way to get single pair that's because so many people mistrust the federal government involves down to the states right until I have these standards, and put it in, and this was a political tactic for creating a more government driven healthcare system. and this kind of thing where you argue that plans as people support our inconsistent. With the status quo in various ways is true, but Hillary Clinton,
also supported many plans and if you go back her ninety ninety four healthcare plan, she supported that and also that plane as income with Obamacare, and it would require the destruction balmy care and other things, and I think it speaks to a place with deep couldn't campaigners in which is kind of dangerous for them. And they really don't have a great answer for it at the moment, which is that they want to Vince liberal voters they are more in line with their priorities than Santos is, but the fact is sound just more liberal than Hillary Clinton is, and so now the clinic campaigners having to rely on on arguments to begin to break down right and that I think prior member gonna end up back firing and its because a thing I think they haven't, they figured out how to do like. Like math says I didn't actually released a lot of really strong policy monsieur and last year. He s pretty young, but the
A lot of ideas at our are sound are interesting. I met you practically interested in the efforts made to release ideas to fight different diseases. Alzheimer's. I've got, I think, that's an interesting direction for the campaign to be going in there, but they have not found in Ways Sanders has is ideas that in some kind of large scale, symbolic way signal a sympathy with the liberal borders are trying to track, but they dont have things like breaking up the banks for single pair that act as a kind of simple heuristic that Clinton is on liberal voter side in a way that other, even normally democratic politicians are not primarily that gets sandy. accused, literally the only sponsor of this point thirteen. You got no sponsors which again suggest Republicans like not up for this conspiracy, but you know you got no democratic. Co sponsors no report co sponsors put liberals really like single parents looking up some polling data today that found that mines at a recent problem, twentieth teen, founded about eighty percent of Democrats, like the idea
of a single pair system and even to Sanders campaign, has been needling the Clinton campaign about this low, but lately they had an amazing troll, I'd say of the Clinton campaign where they dug up a tweet from John. Dost thou, who chaired the galleries campaign from twenty Jeanne when he's gotta Gov was melting down where he said. Some what you have just signed up for Medicare in five minutes: how about single pay? I'm paraphrasing rubbed off the tweet, ensure notes and Sanders campaign found that treatment, thirteen and share it with the note like if you want to work for a campaign that shares your value, doing Bernie twenty. Sixteen I think the hard part is Sanders, doesnt, really care about the political feasibility of them. the key is going to support it. No matter, What has been pushing these bills that session after session, and that, It gives them the flexibility to support these ideas. It really resonate with the liberal base, whereas Then? Who is not supporting single pairs hasn't endorse those bills when they were introduced into the Senate, and
kind of stuck in this place. You know these bizarre bizarre. Instead of having the straightforwardly about Hillary Clinton, the people don't lie but which I think is actually admirable in many ways. is it. She is a politician who is very, very, very, very focused on the art of the possible and the literal and the sort of the short and this is in fact, interview she does with with Kevin Sack and into doesn't eight of the near times about health care. Where he's asking her about single payer and what he's trying to get her to do is to either say Yes, I think so here is a good idea in principle or no, I dont think single there is a good idea in principle, and she-
insisting that she doesn't want to talk about single pair in principle, because single pair in practice is not going to happen and has not constructive, as a matter of concrete political logic to be talking about hypothetical single pair healthcare systems that she wants to talk about her healthcare plan, which she believes is compatible with the interests of key stakeholders. That will provide health insurance to people. Dont have health insurance and I think there is an might actually best way and she has like things that jarred, like must haves and two halves and Bob Bob Obama, and I think there is something truly something admirable about this, which is that she would rather because she cares about the uninsured and she cares about casket system. She wants to have this conversation that she thinks maximizes. The probability of obtaining those concrete, objective,
Kevin Sack because he's a journalist and is interesting ideas with linked to have a conversation about ideas and health policy, and I appreciate that quality I really like those conversations as well. I like a lot of things, though I like professional basketball and I like twitter likes professional basketball, but it's like the most important thing in a political There is actually to have eyes on the prize and get things done. A Bernie Sanders, I think, is a kind of a character. The Senate has a hundred different people in it, and it's good for them to have different characteristics and its in some ways very helpful. To have someone who, like insists on like hey, guys, shouldn't we talk about totally redoing away. Pharmaceutical research is financed because you know we kind of shared, maybe, but it is important. I think, particularly in a president to be thinking about what can you really do, and particularly to be thinking about what things that you can do we'll have the effects that you
want them to have, as opposed to the effects that your core supporters would like them to have, and what's weird about this couldn't attack and Sanders. Is that the real problem is that going around talking about your sort of dream proposal of autonomous government take over the healthcare system is in a concrete way, just going to imperil poor peoples. Medic, it's gonna make it likely that you lose the election will, maybe it I mean on some level, maybe does maybe it does. I think, will one day in same thing about the Santos from this perspective, is that his whole campaign acts as a kind of rolling proof for itself, I think that one year ago, if we have a conversation about, can the sky in the Senate he's from four mind he identifies the socialists. Can he mount a serious challenge to Hillary Clinton in the democratic primary? The answer that is no rightly ask that is liberals, but a hopeful,
with Warren runs. They better hope. Something happens. It gives Joe Biden runs, maybe, but that even with a democratic. Many politics. Bernie Sanders was considered and after thought, he was considered someone to extreme even for for the democratic path Sanders is arguing on? Some of the key would ever make it this way, but is that a world which Bernie Sanders gets elected the world in which american politics does not actually operate by the rules by which we thought it is now. The question is: is a world in which Bernie Sanders Windsor Democratic Primary, that right and that I think, is a much more on much. I will rise to really encourage people to look at the situation prevailing in the UK, right exactly what happened in the UK as they they tweaked their primary system, to make it more open to two party members, and it turned out that with the party base really wanted to do was rally behind
name: Jeremy Carbon, who was a marginal member of the labor cock as who was known as a kind of at a character who stood up for for all time, labour party values and also for relentless farm policy, values and an eye I happen to think, but you get him on the foreign policy. Stuff is much more correct and on the merits than his bleriot opponents. I have strong feelings by UK economic policy You know people first, just totally dismissed him as this isn't gonna fly, but then he was doing well, and so then they started warning of labour mainstream. My people increasingly hysterical terms like he's going to sink the party like will never win another election again, but having been, even so wrong about the Labour Party candidate selection process. There sort of election prognosticated that discredited in the minds of a lot of people. and they were like, cannot. Why would we believe you now? I do you thought this guy can never get anywhere so who's to say. We sent alike,
so he won the Labour Party leadership and all the things fair things and unfair things that you would think would happen if a marginal person from the fringe of your caucus takes over have happened. Read like he just. He gets very negative hostile press because conservative media really doesn't like em, but also because he's really controversial inside his own party. So its super easy to get the Labour Party sources talking shit about the Labour Party leader and just like the way journalism works. That's a really bad luck and you don't have eyes your achieve on your side and he keeps provoking Inter party fights because he's not from the middle of his already he's from one side of it, and also, I think, is important in this kind of player he has the person
reality that allows you to persist in politics for a long time being. That way, which is a confrontational personality, which is something Sanders, has as well rack exactly exactly and in its at those are the kind of people who are likeable as fringe player, is because it's nice to have someone who isn't a team player and will say cool stuff in the media and will stand up for weird ideas, and sometimes weird ideas are right, but it's hard to lead a political movement without being the kind of person who is good at leading Nicole movements, which is a little bit necessarily someone who thinks a lot about crass politics and not that much about kind of like we are dreams, Again, I do want to say I do think it's bad when writers, just sort of like pound the table with pure election analysis, maybe I'm totally wrong about this. Maybe Bernie Sanders will be a huge electoral triumph, but I met skeptical. Shall we say
and I think it similar and a lot of ways to that TED crews problem. You know I don't like you will now agenda. You can only add one thing you're, though, because I do think it's worth saying something about this is not actually but pretty sanders rate, which is its actually about a view of the elect read out to you that I am sceptical of because people are always bringing it up there always trying decimate. I think it really for works, but this view you know it basically runs off with the argument that roughly half of the population doesn't vote it mid term. Elections is a hell of a lot more than that and that- You know. There are a lot of disaffected motors out there and then the question you get whose why are these people, not my heart of the political process, and I think one answer is that they feel about american politics way. I feel about professional basketball, which is unlike the way Matt feel mounted and Obama feels about it and another how you feel, I'm in your team on professional soak up ass. I
really don't want anything to do with professional basketball? I don't want to see it on my television. I'm in no way to my friends are always going to wizards games as it can hang out with me. All kinds of things about profession basketball. I just I just don't have any. Interesting Eddie. I'm busy I've too much on my schemes already. I do not have time to be in invest in professional basketball. Another version of the Neither the one Santos makes one then to be fair Obama made to some degree, and I actually think the version of the argument for Trump till. Isn't it a lot? these voters feel that politics doesn't work for them, but they are disaffected not because they are bored by it, not because it's not their interests not because their busy not be they decide to leave it up to other people. Will they focus on raising children but that they feel dead in a system dominated by special interest by lobbyists by elite institutions, etc, etc. They don't have a voice and it isn't worth trying They have one and that, in the democratic version of this kind of
rumbold cannot be bought sort of every man candidate, like Bernie Sanders who really comes ounces nope? I am I am here, and you can believe me, Anne S. I think people do Billy I am willing to fight for you that I'm I'm not going to listen to these billionaires, I'm not going to take money from Super Pacs. I'm going to do I'm not going to work with Super Pacs and raised for them. I'm not going to do any of these things that have led to you being locked out of american politics and I'm going to have a policy platform filled with single payer and breaking up the big banks in this kind of hardcore populism. The right wing version of this issue and its very, very different, but its trumpets, em right. It's it's doing a bunch of different things that have been locked out from the conservative also consensus like building a wall and starting a a muslim travel ban and and and doing these different things that a different sort of category electorate feels help them but are not being heard because her special interests, but have you look at it in I don't want to equate trumpet sentence, for they are very different kinds of players. I just think that there is a sin
idea, with both it action analyses based off over a view of the electorate, as it currently exists, are missing the possibility front electorate as it could potentially exist. Now again, I am sceptical of these arguments. I think that problem with them is at what every candidate always wants to believe every time, and they pretty much ever happen, and I think the evidences it most people who are not voting does do not want to be part of politics and all they feel about politics. We, I feel that professional basketball, but that's, I think, definitely did this heard. A deeper thing here is not just about Santa. About what you believe is really happening in the american electorate and whether you believe there is a kind of theirs disaffected majority that could be activated by the right candidate Although I would you say that you look at Obama, no aid, I just. I really think the evidence on this stuff. Is it it's hard and pass candidates? Who had this kind of idea? I think Mcgovern would be one just made a really there. Not really good examples would ever happening while I'm
stand up for Donald Trump in this regard, the problem for Obama and from a govern and for sanders who all in one way or another have a similar group of early supporters. Is it the demographic that those candidates appeal to is actually most engaged, most informed people who are most likely to be participating in the sis? and who they would like politicians to align more closely with their views, which is great and that's what you would expect and engaged in form person to want to do, but they are already engaged in informed. I dont think that Donald Trump is, the republican nominee could
conjure up a huge block of non voting people and in when an election, but I more willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, because the demographics of the people who, like Donald Trump, are similar to the demographics of the people who are disengage from the political system. Less educated people who it's the people who are backing from our similar to the people who aren't voting, so you can sort of imagine a world in which, through social diffusion, they go and get them get them engaged. And God it's a big leap from the current sort of Sanders Constituency to the the
affected constituency to win elections for anyone to win elections. You have to be able to appeal to more than one kind of person, so you don't want it. What rule it out entirely, but there's just as very little evidence from appealing to very ideological, well educated, very knowledgeable, very high attention, liberals that you are going to get- and I see what their think is well informed. Liberals think is that what well informed liberals want to do is really double down on the government, helping poor people and are therefore poor. People who are disaffected disconnected from the political system should really like what they have to say that the problem with reaching disengaged and uninformed people is. It is hard to engage and informed. this question of like how would you get people who aren't paying attention to politics and who've, given up on the process to see you hear your message come to believe that you are sincere and that voting for you will be at the Casey's by the ton of leaps in that process
please stating that is a fact about the nature of illogical politics that where Bernie Sanders stands on, the idiot spectrum is highly pro poor people is not going to mean anything unless you're already engaged in the system, which is why Clinton has this kind of oddball fear uncertainty in doubt, attack going, not invite. It doesn't make sense to me, because I know a lot about this, but there are people who are engaged enough devoting primaries but are still open to like that. Uncle Bernie Sanders is its conceivable that some Democrat has some nutty healthcare plan. You haven't heard of that. Could collaborate with incidentally, doesn't nutty hop carefully and you ve felt even heard of its is different than the one. That Clinton is. The media is alive right, so it's been so to go. All the way down to people are paying attention at all. Like that's hard speaking of healthcare plans that you may have heard of some
trusting research about we got it. We gotta take a break now, there's a corrupt system of corporate meeting, and we want to tell you about a great great deal and then we're going to tell you about great new research into the healthcare system. This week's Epps.
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You can start your free trial side today. It square spaced out com, if you decide to sign up for square space, make sure to use Africa weeds to get ten percent off your first purchase square space build a beautiful, so we are now in our white paper of the week, and this comes from it's not even a white everywhere. It's actually just a real peer reviewed research paper from the Journal Health Affairs Paper of the weak paper that we revised to Stew and that we have a set of everyone theologians and on a white paper. Why Rivermouth as I waited for ok, our new segment paper, the weak begins now, in the general health affairs. So this is some research on the affordable care act and looking at how the affordable care ACT has affected employment in the United States, and there was a lot of talk just a few years ago. That Obamacare would reduce, employment, and there are thought to be a kind of two ways this would happen. The first is that there is this mandate to cover anyone who works more than thirty hours a week. So there are a lot of stories about companies from Walmart, twitter chose to target reducing
people have companies above a certain size, companies that have a hundred or more employees that if you had some on working thirty hours a week or more you'd have to offer them. Health insurance will take penalty or pay a penalty, and the idea was that you would see companies reduce people who were margin, maybe thirty, four thirty five hours a week, they produce them down to twenty nine twenty eight too that mandate and those The obvious really easy want understand, there's a second kind of more subtle theory about Obama CARE, and this is one that Democrats believe what kind of talk in a different way, Obamacare it's a lot easier to leave your job. If you're lying on your job for health insurance Democrats will talk about this idea of breaking block that right now, some people just stay in their jobs. They don't really like, because that's the only way they health insurance did. They would face pre existing conditions and the individual market. It be way more expensive ah monsieur combat that a bit. It says: there's no more pre existing conditions. Anyone who wants to convey
region, the individual market, there's caps and how much you can charge older people. So you know, Democrats will talk about this. in this great. That's people kind of pursue their passions and it can go beyond entrepreneur. Republicans Conservatives will say, while you're going to see people be less productive, that there is less costs associated or just retire or just retire, hired fifty nine photometer grandkids exactly so you're doing all these things. It makes it less easy to work and you could spend that either way, whether that's good or bad, depending on how you feel about the issue. So That's some research on a national level prior to this paper are going to talk about that doesn't show hours reduced. That generally you know, when you look at Labour data, you don't see part time work going up over past two years, but disarm researcher this economists closely Simon at Indiana University shit idea. What? Let's I dig into the margin subject: let's eat, or maybe this national averages are mask
change, that's happening in smaller places, so she render really interesting study where she looked at people and to kind of margins. One was looking at people- and you can do this through federal data sources who, right before a bomb care were working. Thirty two thirty five hours a week and didn't have health insurance. So these are the Sort of people you'd expects have their our slashed to get them under the threshold and there she doesn't see it happening. Where you know you don't see, really any clear trend in part time where's. Going up among this particular group that we really thought would be effected. The second group she looked at it people in states where medicate expanded who were working prior to the medicate expansion and said? Well, you know these are people who now that they have Medicaid. Maybe they don't need to work anymore, maybe they're going to take a few more hours and again, there is no decline in ours. this paper. It's the best evidence. I think I've seen that at least at this point two entities and early points. We haven't seen Obamacare
increasing part time work, and the question is really why- and I would say this isn't just a theory that you knew about the car Poland's had like the congressional Budget Office had projected that Obamacare would lead to two million less jobs, not to my. Unless people were anyway, they projected the people would work last because of the affordable care act, and here we are My sixteen we're not sing it There's these questions have well. Why are we not sing it and are we reject researching the day? correctly. Will we see it in the future and like is this going happen. Or is there actually like a lot more friction around using hours. Then a lot of these initial assumptions saw signal.
I wonder about this- have been fiddling with with my phone to get the get the chart right, but then I think a lot of these discussions are missed. Is that beer of labour statistics when a measure parttime work? They they ask people. Are you working part time because you want a part time job or you working part time, because you couldn't find a full time job and if you want a full time job, but you can't find one you're classified as part time for economic reasons and so put em for economic reasons, skyrockets. Whenever unemployment skyrockets for the same reason, but if you look at economic reasons as a share of all part time, workers it goes up during recessions, Buddy eat MAX is out of thirty five percent, which is to say that even in the depths of horrible recession, a large majority of
I'm workers dont want full time jobs and in a healthy economy, is more like twenty percent or fewer of the part time. Workers are part time for economic reasons, so I think one reason you don't see this kind of involuntary disappointment that's happening. There is that you actually have a shortage of part time: physicians, relative to people's desires, that there are a lot of people who either because they are parents of young children, because their students, or because their old and looking to sort of trade off leisure for income without going all the way into retirement, want part time jobs for part time. Work is not well suited to a lot of employers, business models,
and so it's it's hard to actually get a part time jobs, and so this idea that employers would involuntarily force people into part time ism. It missus, where the actual mean sticking point in the economic system is which is there, aren't enough ways for people only work, twenty five or thirty, two recent. It's funny say that my if it brings himself up war, which is something we don't keep track of to my knowledge, is full time for economic reasons, right, you're, you're in a full time job, any kind of wish that you weren't and something what you're saying reminds me of is Travis Kallenbach who's. The sea of Goober has talked about how bomber cares really good fruit or consumers. Creating this veto, as is left as is the card and whatever creamy is very large group of people who want to eat.
Some of them wanted part time jobs and they wanted gig labour that they could do. You know a little bit here a little bit there, but in a one problem that is, it can be really hard to get Healthcare and Obamacare has made much easier to participate in that economy, because if you ve got a kid in your kid, you know has had whatever bad asthma in the past. You don't get completely rejected when you, God, for how can the enemy your market, but to go back to something that Sarah was saying a moment ago. I am surprised, by the second half of that study. So I am a little less shocked about about part time. Work not skyrocketing, because I do think another piece it gets missed here is How much of the labour market dynamics are actually about a tracking retaining worker talent? think. This is something that policy walks end like writers, don't think about all that but I mean, even if you're an employer dealing with me in a reasonably low wage and place, there is a huge difference between really good wage employees and then, and not that good ones, and with
in this whole discussion you know we're talking about these companies and you would get these are whether or not these very mild kinds of employer mandates would end up changing per behaviour on health care and in the fact of employer behaviour and healthcare right now there is no mandate tea or of certain out right now, previous to Obamacare. They didn't have to offer health care at all. They were Doing that you know out of court on court, the goodness of the heart, but really they were doing that out of the need to compete for labour market talent right. There were constantly be these caution and debates about India. To add that this is like a very vast majority of companies. I remember the actual number. I think. If you look at companies about you, please you know who the man replied. You we're talking like eighty five some like very high profile. There are already has a high percentage of workers is a low percentage it away.
five percent of why company hanging over us many eyes over a hundred already have health insurance once you get into big companies that have asked me to a treaty contains. I don't know what the code I hesitate to security, but it's there, but it's only to say that. I do think that I think on the on the margin, I still can't believe it. You can see some of this kind of effects somewhere, but I dont think its can be big, because I think that you have to like look at this. First from the perspective of ok Most of these countries are ready to offer health insurance and nobody is making them. Do it at all. The idea that somebody adding a little wash in that direction. Particular now, if that is pushing the competitor, companies offer health insurance for those same employees. It's really hard to be. The odd went out in that play right. It's really hard to be the only company that is not offering help me assurance annually, get shitty people and few now, I'm sure, that's wrong when it, but you really are not going to get the best talent in your industry and if you don't get the best telling your industry- and this is true places writhing people and always think very hard about the competitiveness of the labour market
the retail and and and and food preparation, if you don't get, could tell there you're also gonna get killed, I think that after this that I hadn't really thought through until I started. Looking at this paper there is actually a lot of cost associated with cutting hours. I've got say, use them. working at the gap for, however long and they work thirty hours, and you want to move them to twenty eight hours but they're like someone who knows how to Well, the shirts look exactly right and then you have to like. We have to reduce them down, and then you have to find someone else to cover that five, where's your like piecing together all these schedule. So it's not like. I think hard times in the healthcare debate and like I was probably do this, you kind of talk about it like a cat. First decision like pages, reduce down and then people cannot involve jobs, not just but there's like recruiting training there's like a lot of and one thing. I wonder about an inch on that particular forces like whether disobeyed a longer term thing like we wait two or three years, and he may be there are producing hours now, but you see more higher
it's a lower. Above all, you know, as we go forward that a kind of like trickles out over years, maybe not given, maybe the friction apply. Areas is vitally, as we learned vocs daringly in a lot of what we have heard a lot as we're having a lot of boxing should approximated our common and look at our careers page if your interested, but we have for health insurance, we do upper health insurance, but it is the Jews I am involved in sorting Erasmus doing enemies of candidates, testing candidates, training, candidates up it's it's incredible incredibly time consuming and add to the idea that very small, changes on the margins would make you want to do that on a very, very big way and practically in a way we you're losing your best employees and and having to like replace them with people who are willing. a worse deal, which probably means they do not have. As much kind of value in the marketplace like it's, I think, is often pretty likely doesn't mean you can create a policy that would happen concrete, very aggressive cancer policies here, but it is. This hits the second half of that pay that interested me are surprised me more because you know, I do think that
stands to reason the practically among people who are in there. You know fifties early sixties, and maybe this wasn't by the medicating, because most people incomes tend to go up as people get older. Some more of the people who might which ops because of a bomb care would probably getting healthcare entrance from exchanges in instead of older categories, but more than I expect sort of young people to be retiring because of alarm care. I do expect it to be possible for older people who would have both more trouble in the marketplace, but also maybe more savings were family to rely on and some work a pass. He turned and more social acceptance for leaving the jobs to be returned I was really liked there is this Youtube video and its like this, why this tea party patriot might vote for hilly and this guy and he runs a Youtube channel. That is most see videos of him shooting guts like it just like, mostly, like a gun, ranches, shooting stuff and He goes through this whole had somebody he does. His video registers, like talking in the cameras, ok like to me again
In voting for Hilary, I'm like a tea party guy, I hate these people but Obamacare. It me So I could quit my job and how does I go to the gym everyday and its awesome? And what of Republicans ever done for me and then like he got this huge backlash. Publicans was, I god not voting for Hilary and his ex video. It was kind of arson, amazing thing of how powerful tribal loyalties art. Then, when it's in direct contradiction to people's people's self identified interest, but It was a guy offering testimony of exactly that kind of labour supply decline right that he was working. He didn't want to be working, he had health problem, so he couldn't get healthcare in the individual market. He was an old enough yet to qualify for medical, Obamacare came along, gave him the option to to drop out of the labour force and he took it and was really happy about the outcome, not at me and some of us That's actually a public policy when they were really rich country, and we know Europe My goal must not be making people work until they die, but
same time. I wouldn't be surprised over a longer period of time to see that becomes a little bit more common. So the thing about this that that complicates it is that we win C, B, o put out this original last met about its anticipated rise in early retirements. The past fifteen years had seen a growing labour force participation rate among people over the age of fifty five, so that was like momentum behind that and labour force participation among people over the age of fifty five Hasn't been continued to increase, to makes it a little bit hard to even assess exactly what it is that that forecasts from the civil means right. If I had written that forecasts down and was now ass to defend it, I would say well, look: reverse participation has grown more slowly among this demographic than it would have
had we not passed Obamacare and, like I don't know man either to maybe it isn't and like I asked leading labour market experts. Why his labour force. Participation among of fifty five years has been going up since the early ninetys and they said volts because people in better health but someone. Asked what why was it going down in the Sixtys and Seventys like was held? deteriorating then, and they said well, it's because Medicare was created in this well, ok, but they didn't get rid of me. You know it's. Some people have reasons, but I'm not sure these are actually that well understood. There is some real urge on it, but it is not an extensive yeah, I would say you know, and the severe report essentially sites to papers and both of them are Medicaid studies. One arm is correct: Garth waded, northwestern studying, Tennessee medicate expansion and I'm thinking on this can one, but it's basically body of research small and its developing anything it's going about more with the affordable, correct,
affording more research opportunities? But we actually just don't, have a good guy. sense of this relationship. It's kind of similarity know another is looked into how increases in premiums effect. Wages is this body of research where words pretty conflicted, you can find papers does port either side of the argument. One thing I push labelling as are unwilling and with early retirements INA this is also. This is generally like an end if anyone wants to email me with a well samples, icicles one, you can do that. I think of my who is my dad, whose you know he's in his armies, he's going to term sixty later this month is again close to retirement and you know he's looked. He relies on my he's. A contractors relies on my mom for health insurance and, actually, you know looked at the exchange and what's he's found as that, the insurance theirs, much less robust and what he can get through fire blazed insurance, where you know, when you look at the Obamacare markets, they deftly our coverage, but its autonomy coverage
six thousand dollar deductible with a limited network, but your players and offsetting you and your employer is not paying a big China you're premiums, especially if you're am the a rule as they allow the marketplace to charge older people three times as much as young people. So you could end up the pretty expensive premium, even though you know I definitely agree. There's more of a safety net like now at least you be allowed to buy something, but it probably is more expensive than what you'd right we're it's probably not as good coverage. So that's be another mediating factor. Pushing back against early retirement is that it's not just organ transplants are, I think- and I agree with that of the weeds. I I think we should spell out the age rating point little bit more so in an employer based health plan. the rule is that the The insurance pool has to take all comers equally in charge you more if your covering spouses and kids and things like that, but they can't delve into the demographics of who you are specifically
so, like a twenty three year old Guy get charged the exact same premium as like a much older person or or whatever else, even though we know from an insurance underwriting perspective that, like that's, not the right way to do it, that's a visit illegal rule, so in the individual market, didn't used to be like that. You could just do anything you can charge anyone anything or reject them or reject them, and so it didn't work cried and so on. do any formal carriages constraints in the insurance companies ability to do underwriting, and so one thing is they can't charge young women more they charge young man, even though young women have more healthcare and to have a baby Obama? Democrats tout debts say like being a woman is no longer preexisting condition and
designed to make people think that there was discrimination in the employer based pool that never existed. I think, but at any rate they ve got rid of that, but you can do premium rating based on age in the individual market, so you can charge an old person more than you charge a young person. Would you can't in the employer based Mark away up, but Obamacare limited how much you yes. Yes, you are limited to three to one where you could see the prudent one is locked up, but then you better in a three way market like tender. Why? An still you know it's still night, if you look at the action, each man like how much older people really caused damage. Young people really caustic its nine young old people less than their fair share in young people is services need help create more frequently when you actually look at a bunch of the republican plans. One thing we do is they will raise at up to five to one which I think is interesting, but still it was a political com question given who supports whom in politics, but you re
what is to the old individual market? The Obama care market is very friendly to old people right, but relative to the employer me tomorrow, you tell your Mama care Maria Hunter for censure, so if you were looking at who would take advantage of Obama care to drop out of employer based health care and go on to exchanges. It's not that favourable to an old person. But old people are the kind of people who might decide to retire early red I can retire early at twenty six just because you can get healthcare now, because you ve put right, you need money that is it six year old who might get about healthcare deal by doing so in had sense is like a pretty well designed policy if they had gone four zero age rating, which I think would have fit some of the political logic of what they're trying to do. The economics would have gotten think war lack right, and so it is having that age rating, which is like less
age rating when insurance companies would want to do so. It works for an older person who needs the exchange, but still more aid rating than they do in the employer market. So it's not a great idea for an old persons, hop into the exchanges I think that's like I don't know if it's deliberate or not, but it works what to pull out one. So the big theme of this conversation underling a lot of what we talked about here, is that there can be attained. See when talking about Obamacare, really any policy to talk about it as if it's the only and going on right to talk about look at its rules on part time work and got a cover, people more than three hours or its doing aid rating or whatever. And you look at that- and you say: ok but will that do in, like obviously push employers to make more workers, part time workers or push old people to drop out of the hour aging people did to drop out of the labour force in and take a bomb care. But the big point is it Obamacare is actually in terms of how the stuff works. One many many many many many forces driving decision making and its often not even a very big one, and so its effect
Can it be very much on the margin and oftentimes margin is going to be small and even is receiving in these studies? Imperceptible. I do think one why They now have always has just really wrong about the Obamacare conversation is that I think the we care conversation like Miss States, the magnitude of Obama care by a lot right. Like you, too, you know you talk about it. Being a government take over healthcare, six into account. Should. It really is, and either one of those upon care smaller than a lot of previous healthcare plans, like the Clinton plan and eighty four, the Nixon plan before that, much not to say nothing of single pair and a lot of this stuff it it matters, not saying not sing, it doesn't, but it just in it's not going to reshape the labour market to just isn't that kind of size. What an exciting had not to rush. I know rather carrots on the margins, Good final weeds point that I think are of absolutely feel free to ignore this issue.
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Transcript generated on 2021-09-15.