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The Time Traveling Emanuel Brothers


Sarah, Ezra, and Matt talk about anti-Trump protests, cabinet confirmations, and health insurance age rating (exciting!) 

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
This we support is also sponsored by Nature Box, gotta Nature, Baxter, Comstock weeds for fifty percent off your first order. The following podcast contains explicit language. Is there and headstrong? No, it's it's the opposite. It's about how much Republicans Donald Trump and I love her. Unless trunk gave undersigned careful. hello. In other words, over the weeds boxes, policy, Pakistan, Panoply Network, Matthew, Iglesias, In the studio by my colleagues as recline and Sarah Cliff, we got one, April morning, were enjoying here in DC. Yes, there you're, the chinese hucksters. Have they ve hurt him? Whose purpose is what it's it's? It's nice and we gotta we gotta lotta gets up to talk about. We ve gotta thrilling, it's a white paper, but it's about the affordable care act.
it rings and it's about a Trump executive or gas brings. It brings everything together. Math and rounding. It's wonderful. I don't think we need to be this concealing of it. It's about a trading It's big, I didn't hear you, we can talk about some of the cabinet. Ongoing in the news about, but first one into to take a step back. Sir, and I have both been writing about sort of progressive counter mobilization in that Trump era, and why don't you Yes, there has been to an extent. I was not expecting a really big counter mobilization that, in a lot of ways, has reminded me of thousand nine beginning of Tea party, the where there is a lot of focus, I'm going to tell All right now, there's this list of about a hundred town halls that this new AM group town. How project twenty Atinas circulating, saying like you should show up should go and people are really going
There were some town halls this past weekend that had over a third and people showing up protesting rallying, and so I think, there's kind of interesting, surprising things here to talk through. One is just that it's it's happen there's this hall. I think the Washington Post was the first one to make the Joker say that protest has become the new brunch like through is a protest. There's always on the weekend has been he's really wide scale. Mobilizing and then particularly with the protest around the travel ban. They felt very again anklet, not especially organised women's March, or something those announced weeks in advance that people got ready for the protests, ports are really really quite. Rising like not something that anyone could have prepared for. Given that we didn't know Executive order is coming to using a lot of this, and it seems like it's only picking up, I think you're going to see in the last week of February this all kind of hit and even higher
That is why legislators will be on recess. You'll have a lot of town hall meanings and you'll. Have these liberal group circulating the lists of Town Hall meetings? That's one thing that has surprised because it really. It seems very similar to how the tea party started two thousand nine, how these developed this distinct ideology and then there's been a sight of it. That mats been writing about that. It seems that this is actually working that I think very easy, to write these off as a lot of angry people who are showing up and then they go home and they watch tv or do something else. But it seems like these are type of things that the Trump Administration watching and responding to end You mad you're, really good list of some of the things they ve scaled back. Maybe I'll turn it over to you about what this mobilization risking like what is meaning, and she I mean it's- it's gonna little swamp, because judges have now stayed the entire immigration executive order. But what was noticeable is that between the pride of evening when protesters started showing up the airports and when the sun
came down. Trump already said that they were gonna exempt green cardholders, that's people with with permanent residency permits. They said they were good. exempt dual nationals. First of rest, select handful of countries, then of basically all country is- started, saying that the military was can be allowed to the list of special exemptions for people who worked with the? U S: Army in Iraq and Syria, I'm so those are gonna very significant kinds of judges. Are they also lady in some handful of of refugees is who had were scheduled for medical treatment. So basically it was like they started rolling back all of the most sort of heavily criticised parts of this. You are still left with an order that as real significance, particularly for refugees heading forward, but the day they really,
walked a lot of it back, and I think you also saw that an executive order had been circulating that was going to revoke deportation protections from dreamers. You know somebody had written that up. It was something many Republicans I mean if report linked to box, so easily locks barely more than more than just the league. Some is worth saying that contracts. Rightly there was a dream act. If Republicans in Congress had wanted to protect the has people from deportation, they would have voted yes on the dream, act, but instead they voted no because they voted. No, it didn't pass because it didn't pass. Obama came up with the dark up programme, deferred action for childhood rivals, which was met again with overwhelming criticism from Republicans, because again, if they had wanted to protect his people from deportation, they would have voted
the law. Then there was a campaign, the most anti immigration republican candidate, one the nomination won the election he came into office. I think it would be, would have been very reasonable to assume the duck or would be revoked. Its toll might be revoked in the future, but it's the order has got lost in the mail or something from what I hear. People on I'm Capitol Hill are not expecting, soon because there is a fear that that would actually be a much more potent range of broke additives. Many many more sort of tentacles into the community and and more people who would show up and similarly on on health care, it sort of seemed. I think we set on the show that you know in mid late November was like, while Republicans all like said they wanted to reveal affordable care ag. They have the vote stay, probably will, and now they are looking very hesitant,
A cautionary notes that, as were raised, for remembering that seem to be way nonlinear on one, this value heavily, and I won't say it's not going to happen. What I had thought was that they were going to just like thrush that aside and not worry about it, and they clearly are worried about it and they're worried because they're here from people and its making them their sorrows upon the hill last night, and I was talking to a senator, I actually Democrat, but he's one of the Democrats is extremely well liked by Republican. Somehow works. A lot with them has a lot of relationships and as a lot of corresponding legislation, and I was asking him just how things felt- and I said to him, you know: does it feel to you take your republican colleagues have spread. The step right now are the excited by all the things there they're gonna get done anything. They said. No, the terrified like everybody is terrified and I was asking him about twenty eighteen
just how he saw that that playing out, and he said that he is happy done. The job won the election, but it is the case that it is a lot easier for Democrats running and twenty eighteen than carrying here, Clinton on their backs, and that is a thing that a lot of these members of Congress are feeling, as I want to draw a point that is implicit. What Sarah matter both saying and relates. Now I'm like my to peace? I wrote about had had a stop autocracy in America this week, which is what the key party did extremely effectively in two thousand and nine. Was they focused on Congress famously during the August recess they went to a million town halls, they overwhelm the town halls. They scared the hell out of democratic legislative, but they also get the hell out of here black and legislators. They destroyed the capacity of someone Like Olympia, snow or cha, crossly or any of this number of folks who might have cooperated on the affordable, correct to lend any kind of bipartisan support to the bill. That was very, very effective congress.
a much more open institution, a protest and the presidency members of Congress. Their produce or up more often they have fewer constituency, there more afraid the constituents they do have. So Congress is often very vulnerable to protest, and that is wrong. Really what you're, seeing in the kind of mobilization Sarah spoke about. There's a quote: the came out, not Longo from Dave Brow who is the congressmen who beat our camp or primary, and he said to the Richmond Dispatch Was it a bank in areas that, at an event with conservative groups, you can do it all is, while he was talking to some allies about the situation is, and he said, he's talk, but the little character, these women are up in my grill, wherever I go and it's not to offer positive feedback, and it's really upsetting him and its upsetting a lot of these reports Hence because that kind of mobilization it it does scare them scalesome about their next election, and there is a
real feeling that between what is happening, the chopper demonstration, which is to the from the prospective Republicans in Congress very chaotic, there's, not a lot of forward guidance coming out. They don't have a good legislative affairs team and so were published in commerce, are frightening completely unable to plan, which is a really big and I think, under notice, dynamic happening when other not effectively planning their own legislative calendar of nominations which will talk about later are taking a lot longer than they usually do. So this scheduling capital hills completely fucked up right now, but in addition to not being able plan and up carbon in the Trump administrations ability to messages stuff. And and sequence it. There are also a few aid of what you're, seeing both in the polls in their home districts, which is a highly mobilized, liberal and even to some degree, may be independent Bay, and an increasing kind of demoralized and apathetic concern,
they swayed? I mean I and I think that the DE mobilization side of this it is also important. I mean I think something that every the day after the election, when you win people are always hoping. The winners that, like their team, is gonna, keep up the momentum and it's gonna like carry them forward into the new year, and would you often see. Is that doesn't happen right that, like you, have a number of democratic senators representing states the download from one quite over mainly an though senators are going to like go with Trump on a certain number the is they're, not like, at least as I understand it, Heidi had Camp and John tester we're not see judged by angry pro trump calls urging them to confirm Betsy device right, like the
conservatives, are complacent on the grass roots people who really wanted Donald Trump to win. The election are happy that Donald Trump has won the election and they may continue to be happy with him in and vote for him and whatever, but people feel that they have like done their part when their side wins ways when their side loses, they become much more inclined to like get up and go. Do things It's the suddenness of the switch you can tell has taken members of Congress a back even though on another level like it's very predictable right leg. You don't say The people who are out of the two thousand nine town halls like campaigning against the Asia like showing up on Basle like. Yes, you have to get rid of the easier either see as much. You know very well from the legislators. I've spoken with. I think they do here from constituents were fostered parts of Asia, the deductibles, the premiums, but it seems like way more told them to the other side.
I make. This is like a pretty common dynamic. I know I've heard from abortion rights groups like plan parenthood, they're near all day. They really struggled to fund is in the Obama era, like it's hard to get people to donate your protest screw point. You have appropriate president, even though all the stuff with member states where they had their best wonder using during the George W Bush era- and you see the same thing with Asia you now where? Were you solid? I think eighteen million dollars and donations when they typically get three million a year. What a I The moment were in now I think we're just at the beginning, thing, and I think, click ossing earlier, like it's going to get much bigger as we get into the hall. Legislating some big issues, one other thing I am curious to see how this develops is, whether you do who end up with a tea party of the left of people who you knew When I think of the temporary process in two thousand nine, they weren't as much about primary and people there most
about. You know making sure people didn't support. The healthcare law need achieved tat. They made sure no republican voted for it. And it really you know- grew Intellect primary ENG dear to the conservative Democrats and really going at people who already to the right from the further right and careers language. Let us think about whether that could possibly develop from this on the left I've seen some more liberal friends on Facebook? Talking about you know you not better, not support cabin, Amber x or why are like, usually primary, like from I'm crazy. If that happens, if you see this increasing the polarization we ve seen on the right like that happens on the left is an offshoot of that. Also, this is, I think, can be a very difficult strategic choice for democratic legislators. I think something really important happening here and I've talked to some of them about this, and I think they are. They are not sure what they're going to do. Let's take the NEO Gorse Accommodation for a minute as an example
Let's be your democratic senator, I'm not the most vulnerable, not a Joe mansion, bright who's up in West Virginia, which is super trump country, but just a democratic senator. You know, and not from a completely safe state. One question that you have to face just as it as such The point is whether or not letting you are deciding knock it. You're gonna vote no on the sky right. You would produce a primary if you voted. Yes, you're gonna vote! No on your gore such not because he's a bad guy, not because he's a bad jurists, but just because you don't agree with him, you think Ropey Wade was correctly decided case. So you're gonna go vote. No. Now the question is: does the fellow buster so now that this game theory becomes a little bit different. There's a view and Democrats do hold this view and I think they're probably right about it, that if they use of filibustering yogurt such is considered a qualified domini in an open sea that is replacing Antonyms Scalia. They, the filibuster, will be taken apart by Republicans. Republicans will finish the job done. that's began and twenty thirteen and eliminate the filibuster notches from all confer
The nominees up to the Supreme Court, but now, including the Supreme Court Use affair, Esther any gets eliminated, what's the point of doing that? Well, one version is that there is no point in doing that and see should hold the filibuster and wait until maybe there's a time when you can use it and Republicans motto. Republicans will be more. Into it like say a pivot justice at sea with better Ginsburg. Besides retiring go windsurfing, all the time you use it, then, as forcing a more compromise now many and you might be able to get Lindsey Graham and a couple. People like that too, to back you up on that you're not gonna, get a ape Romany, but maybe you'll be able to get somebody who's, not supervise the right. On the other hand, if you don't filibuster Gore, such the liberal base is going to lose their shit, you they are going to be furious. They are going to feel correctly, like you didn't, do everything you can to fight for them, and this mobilization that is currently allied with the Democratic Party will do what happened with the tea party, begin to see the Democratic Party as also another obstacle
and meanwhile emits that you will have the democratic politicians who really do have a social media base year Elizabeth when's your Bernie Sanders too familiar Corey, Booker's and they'll, probably because our more liberal petitions on the filibuster sighed she can get screamed by by the civil activists group, and so that I think, is gonna, be the Ceta strategic decisions that decides what you're talking about. If Democrats, side to play this a little more traditionally and not filibuster everything to work with the Trump administration on places where they think there's a space to work together and to do this because they think it will protect vulnerable nominees and twenty eighteen. I think either they're gonna see de mobilization of this progressive eruption or the progressive corruption. going to turn on them. On the other hand, there is a worry among Democrats that if they go sort of full out opposition, they are going to imperil folks, like Heidi Height Camp and twenty eighteen and potentially weaken the strategic position going forward and also to continue this.
making of the norms that they themselves are does very personally upset about, but I think that that sells a little bit short like eggs. They have ninety. The tea party insurgency became they like Talk to me like high tea party is right. It was when you got to the point where, in Delaware right there was an open Senate seed in a clearly or blue state that it looked like Republicans work going to win with a well qualified, moderate nominee who had run and one state wide in Delaware previously, and instead of they nominated a crazy lady, like that's, that's a poor, strategic choice right and Republicans like the reason it took them until twenty fourteen to capture the Senate was like that kind of like stream primary, and they also on policy. You don't not just things like. Maybe they took our harsh. Line, and so you sort of my or than was tat.
the wise, but the would take proposals from Obama and in order to avoid cooperating, they would generate worse policy up you know I mean like beat the Obama administration really did come in and, like really did want to do a grand bargain on the federal budget that would have substantially reduce the long term, trajectory of federal spending and Tea party enthused Republicans, sir, Why did that opportunity aside and now own president has like a position that is to the left of Obama's because they decided to throw away a chance at like a genuine compromise,
I don't think we ve seen a lot of indication from the Trump administration, yet that they are interested in that kind of thing. But but to me, like that's the big question, we discussed it a little bit hypothetically Mckibben infrastructure bill to me, like that's. The tax rightly give Trump regroup so little bed and his like. Ok, I'm giving the wheel. Begins their Supreme Court justice that they want. Maybe another justice will retire some day and and they'll get another one like their excited, we're gonna letting Congress, work out its own tax and Obamacare issues. Who knows I want to get my pull numbers up? Let's go back to that infrastructure, bill idea that seem to really work well for me on the campaign trail. And the checks humor says he embraces and so like if Trump makes that pivot to the centre, like do Democrats
the pressure to slap his hand away because its incipient Nazi ISM, or do they respond in like normal politics fashion, which is like if the other guy wants to compromise you come in, you see if you can compromise- and I dont think we ve like had that put to the test right, like scribbling out an executive order overnight, without clearing it within the relevant nominate, secretaries is not like a good faith effort to get anyone
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You know about the the women's March be really large the protests in airports, these town hall protests they have taken by surprise by how free they are how much they are happening, how much legislators seem to care about them and what things wonder about is whether whether that's it anabolic how? I think these victories that have happened, make it more sustainable that When I talk to Asia, the Catholic wanted things there really buoyed buyers that data, administration announced that it was going to stop advertising for Obamacare, open enrollment in twenty four hours later reverse that decision, it's alive clear to me how much of that is because of the outcry. How much is because the logistics of just taking down Anzio already paid for it turns out to be a little bit challenging, but both things will be true with the larger, affordable care act, both outcry and logistics are going to be a challenge. So you have those pushing people long
I guess I don't know how long the energy holds up and like it. I think that two thousand nine, if I'm remembering correctly, you really had liquor because you two finite set of setting ex over the summer, where your protest followed by that, I think a big protest, Do you see when the law was passing? Maybe Africa? but there is one big margin. Washington I do how long it has to hold up to be effective and how long it will hold. That's where I think it's important to create a distinction between protesting is an act and like movements as a social organism, so and this is where I think the idea of protests being the new branches are really is a really important and interesting concept. Actually, so what you can seeing Recently- and I think you had on it well- is it at the bar for people to decide what they gonna do with our Friday night or their Saturday morning is go out with a bunch of like minded people and hold signs or do something you some kind of act. That is political. Almost any got and really low voice
Obama administration- to mobilise those very same people around those very same issues to actually go out and spend their time on them. It was incredibly incredibly difficult. Basically, they couldn't do it and now it's all. nothing! These things are happening. You know, day by day week by week, with very spontaneous organizing. Now I saw David from piece about what makes for an effective protest and David is a guide. The Atlantic, you sort of George W Bush is a very smart guy and he's been protest hid himself before and he was giving this kind of advice, which is a sort of I think respectability Paul expansion of protesting about how you know it needs to be something that has motto Republicans in it, that it needs to be something that would get trump voters on your side, and I think that, in terms of how this stuff works, even if that would be sort of conceptually, if you could do it more effective, I think it's wrong. and the way in which its wrongs at this will live or die. It's persistence, as you put it. Sarah will will live or die
on whether or not it is a socially capable movement. Whether or not people enjoy being part of it. I got Facebook invited to and I dont go to these protests, but I got Facebook amateur protests, reason that was a dance protest ethics, outside the Supreme Court and it had likes very funny lines in the invitation. You know we don't need alternative facts, because our hips don't lie, and things like that, and I thought that's actually really smart- that that looks like fun something people might enjoy going to do this, an old line that I think is attributed to Abbe Hoffman, that I don't want to be part of your evolution. It there's no dancing and the degree with Tee party did really well. Was it turn and what were originally very large protests into local social groups. There were all these different party patriots and tea party expressing people became friends and a date in those groups and people got married in those groups and that's how things persist. They become part of your life they become.
Social community that you have responsibilities towards and that you enjoy sing the people from and so one real in that I just don't know the answer to his, how effective the folks were organizing. These protests are when they are using these facebook invites and so forth, in building a list and then having people up like a weekly, meet up a friend. Sometimes it's a protest, maybe sometimes your cleanup trash at the river, and I think that that stuff, though, has a lot to do with it. The degree of resiliency in these kinds of groups. I also think up challenge for like left to protest groups. Is that the progressive mission is more demographically, diverse, swayed and so like. As you were saying, some of it is like they seem like something that somebody like me would do like. I know my father and his girlfriend when California and they like, they went to a protest because they saw how big the protests were.
EAST coast. You know any was like a signal I need in any was correctly people like them were the people who were going to the protests at the same time. I dont think not that none of these were all white protests by any means, but like these were not black lives matter protest they were not the immigration protests from two thousand seven right. There was a discreet demographic, social community. Is that also democratic party politicians like count on for their votes and that are capable of mounting large scale, protests when they want to, but they seem to be existing in somewhat parallel type universes. The republican parties. Electoral coalition, is much more margin. yes, and so it's easier for like one,
kind of movement for one kind of people to sort of gain, a ton of power, interaction, and things like that, and I think you know it'll be interesting to see because there were be things that come up that mobilise more african american latino communities that than we have seen so far and it'll be, sing to see you know how leaders in these different groups are able to sort of build ties and bridge those kinds of gaps because, like I do think that you will see like activism, is a little bit habit forming and that you know people will keep doing it and I'll keep doing no keep doing it. But it is also true that you know you know. Bigger numbers than that to like when elections enter and really do things and you know we saw in the twenty in the twenty sixteen election right, which obviously went generally poorly for Democrats, like the big exe
since that was in the vat and to extend and extended that that sheriff Sway said America. County were jar, pile was finally defeated and in both those cases it was like painstaking organizing in the latino community in south western states, looked like the sort of great hope that there was getting some place, and that is now like disconnected from the Anti trust protests that we ve been seeing so far. There is war, like the big women's March cities- and you know, I think, to be really effective. People going to have to sort of go beyond people were just like them. one thing that this movement does have on its side as a lot of unemployed former employees of the Hillary Clinton campaign, who are very unexpectedly without you jobs and I think that might actually end up mattering significant amount like this project I mentioned earlier the town Hall Project, which is basically this Google Doc of town halls across the country. That's been curated by about
during last last weekend's about a hundred volunteers calling Congress getting information on what meetings are having adding to the spreadsheet its. it's all being run by a former Clinton organizer from Ohio, who was looking for something like this could find at undecided like Maybe I'll posted it and it's basically become as of last week, has full time where he was spending two or three hours a day, and then can it blew up a little bit been playing these sixteen our days to keep it updated. So there is that group of people who, I think, we're we're not making plans fur post election who very much expected to have jobs and sort of level or related to a democratic administration, and I think that and mattering a decent amount that people who really wanted Clinton to win, who not in her, when our people, who are also looking for jobs right now, other back to something we're talking metal a bit earlier, that that is a bit off the question of how the protests evolve, which is the threat such strategic decision of
Democrats negotiating and working with the Trump administration and something that is striking about that is it. It also is very dependent on the decisions trump himself makes if he had after the election tried to strike a more unifying. own and reach out to more people in and Willie sought to get his approval rating to that fifty five, fifty seven sixty one percent territory that is very possible for him just with the different sequencing and a different political messaging operation. I think there'd be a tremendous amount of pressure. Or even altering, even all else, being equal, what's happening right now, chumps both are getting so bad. I think in the latest gala poise at fifty four percent disapproval and it took George W Bush years and years they had fifty percent disapproval trumpeted it in days after being elected and just Stein, one of our Colleagues had an interview with a member of the house, Jim Heinz, who is one of think
the head of the new democratic coalition. If I'm not miss remembering this, but but one or another, he's one of the sort of key new Democrat, modern democratic kind of players and that the exact kind of legislator, the trump would be looking for to work with him on infrastructure and in this interview, Haim Spacex, has to Jeff. Look, I wanted to be working with Donald Trump. We were very excited about this. We wanted to do infrastructure. We were not part of the faction of the Democratic Party. That said, you can work with the sky, but Trump is making himself to toxic for us to work with him than if you, if you do all the things on on muslim bands and refugee bands and have this kind of political education and are threatening to take away. You know that the legality or the sort of space it has been offered to dreamers there it doesn't matter how modern infrastructure bill is. It becomes just impossible for us to work with you at all, and I do think it worth, noting that Donald Trump
he realize it or not- is making a very strategic choice here where he is operating in a Steve Ban in bright bird s way that is making it just completely out of political boundaries. For Democrats too work with them and in some cases, may even for public in store for them, because his approval ratings are getting very, very low. The stuff he's doing is very polarizing, and also- and this is not to be underplayed- he's continuously picking on needed fights with we're Craddock legislators who are sort of interpersonal, influential with our colleagues Jean Louis, was a big part of US fighting which, on Louis makes a lot of other Democrats not want to work with you, but you know there is a theory that Donald Trump would be on the phone Chuck Schuman, everyday they're, both both new Yorkers, both deal makers. You know Donald Trump had committed to a bunch of chambers campaigns. Instead, he's really not talking to humor at all and is going out of his way to make fun of him for unity,
up on television and so in every sort of space. It's not just that Democrats may not want to work with Trump, but chop is not acting like somebody who wants to have them credit working with him and whether or not even realize, is doing this is making it politically impossible to get support he's. Probably later gonna need yeah, I mean you know some of this for tromp bright, a is that In a sense, trumps biggest vulnerability is from inside the Republican Party. I mean your piece and on how to how to fight and autocracy going to read. It makes the point that congressional Republicans sickly, covering four tromp on a whole range of sort of corruption and conflict of interest issues, and I'm not doing it for any. Like good reason, you can't you know you dig through the Federalist Pay, Burgess telling you you can't find anything in there. That's like well when Anne
qualified and transparent person with no fixed ideological principles, takes office, discards, tradition and sets up a bunch of corrupt, see me situations really congregation should pay any attention to that right, so they're trying to get something and it's it's it's a weird We're dynamic where you know. On the one hand, you can say what trompe super popular with the republican base ideas are in some ways more popular than the republican establishments ideas, but then, on the other hand, it's like, though, we can establishment, could do these hearings and could forced down from two to clean up its act.
and could expose deals that are going on and from couldn't do anything to stop them. I feel like a practical day today sends to the extent that Trump is focused on anything in terms of managing his relations with capital. Hell it's like keeping that on track, cried he. He had Jason shape its in four along meeting we had reported, whose ahead of that the House Oversight Committee. You know he did not have like the top Democrats on their transportation committee in for a meeting to talk about aim for short Bell, because he had to talk to the republican Army Oversight Committee, about like not doing oversight right so in a narrow sense like I do think that this makes sense and being besieged by liberal protesters. While I don't agree exactly what David from take that, like the protest, movement has to become more
toast. It is true that having left wing activists constantly assail trump helps Trump convince Republicans that their job is to defend Donald Trump Rather like take a look around at this sort of abuse this situation and where there is real responsibilities are so I think that one reason: I think this dynamic that we ve seen this is gonna walk it that we're gonna keep seeing part does work. I keep seeing Trump, not do anything mobilise people that trust is more worried about losing Republicans on the hill than he is about. Anything else is having a public opinion and protests leaders. Guenaud would like to keep up this fighting with trumpet and everyone's gonna get what they want. In effect, I want to just make one Public opinion note, because I just saw this number yesterday and I thought is really striking and just wanted to add. In the conversation this comes from Sir
monkey, which is a very good online pollster and its remark with all he struck Huffington Post pollster site, which is a great site. So here's a number that really struck me trumps. Approval rating is low. It is bad, it's historically bad for a new didn't, but only nine percent of Republicans disapprove of the job he's doing only nine percent. It is honey too fast. here it is ninety one percent who approve of the job he's doing. I guess that mouth and after the hard come to think It is, but I did it there. It is so don't I just something really really striking it is a case of the trunk is extremely unfair you're, not just among democratic but among independence. Fifty four, fifty five percent- I'm sorry independence disapprove of the job Trump is doing, but its both important and in the end
standing, the incentives of republican legislators, who are always worried about primary challenges and of Trump himself that its very early to be sacrificing democratic and independent support in presidency, but excellent have already made that decision. They are looking at on base and their own bases pro trump and probably does not want an internal fight. So there you know tip your point that there is a kind of defensive strategic logic to this, but it is a logic that speaks to them being in a very bad position. Do not want to be having to believe that defensive of a game this early and obviously some of this. I do think it's worth saying hanging over everything Republicans do in terms of their political strategy. Is that, if trust had had an early to point led in the polls ever Hillary Clinton, the native bounced up and down from like sometimes tied to sometimes is up for, and then a lot of people had said like mental say. You would expect the Republican to win by about two and then on the data
election day pulls out. He was up by two and then he won by two. I won't be like. Ok, that's that's what it was and then, if his numbers were falling, they would be worried. I think but instead what happened was rather like a budgetary and smart takes about how hopelessly terrible Donald Trump was doing. and then he won the election anyway and it, as everyone knows, is still being done by to re very mean. I think it through has everybody throne for a and so like suddenly things that you would say will be bad? Are not producing the level of worry that they would ride. Like tromp was out on Twitter the other day saying Ike, any bad poles for me or fake poles are fake news. I dont know if Trump believes that I'm sure Republicans on the hill don't believe that, but it captures a certain spirit right, like fuck the poles like we're going to do this, that I do think you
people believe in because, like you just one, even though everyone thought he was going to lose and that's the kind of experience that you know breeds recklessness. Ok, so lesson the United States Senate, was pulling on an all night session to debate the nomination of Jeff sessions to serve his attorney general, I dont exactly what the Canon of Senate procedure are that leads to this are being old outside there. Are you going Libya, but this is. I'm going to delay and Democrats can't filibuster but take and make everyone sit around for a day and a half talking about this, which I think is what people sometimes think filibustering is, but it's different. So in the courts this Elizabeth Warren says she want
to read a letter that Coretta Scott King submitted to the Senate way back in nineteen. Eighty six: when sessions was nominated for a federal judge ship, which you didn't get because at the time it was felt that he was too races to be it a federal judge, so she starts reading it and Ms Mckenna invokes rule nineteen of the Senate, which bans senator from impugning the motives of another senator. And so sessions, while he wasn't senator and nineteen. Eighty six is US There are now so things that are over. The in the congressional record from thirty years ago are now considered impugning. So there was like a frog us about this. They had hold a vote on the floor, Republicans and mean everybody, but our party lines, except for Bernie Sanders and TED crews, who were separately hosting healthcare debate on CNN and she was. She was made to stop talking, which was which was odd
Mitch. Mcconnell said you know she was warned, but still she persisted, which then came like a viral tweet in in her favour aspect. you pass. The tags years has to actually persisted old man deals in a viral tweet, whatever There's a phenomenon called the strike sand, a fact which I don't actually know what its origins are, but I assume in assigned to it Barbara stress- and I can explain this unitary origin- yes, so barbarous sand sued over? As I understand I read about this recently, she saw over a I think of somebody taking pictures of her house, but as some kind of like story in a newspaper, and she tried so who over the story which in turn nobody knew this had happened. Nobody it read this paper like read the story or seen the pictures or whatever it is, but it then became a huge national news stories of the very thing she's trying to suppress became
Common knowledge, everybody side and she made the thing she didn't want to have high. While I am much more poignant, Wikipedia is over two thousand three am photographs of her house and now go California re. So this is that this morning, a hug Wikipedia but less clear. This morning, on CNN, like I saw they were doing a segment about like one of those with warm, was saying and how violated rule nineteen and how Coretta Scott King had written this letter and how, in eighteen, eighty six Jeff sessions, we consider two races to be a federal judge, and this is no way that that story would have gotten done. Said he would have been a much he's year like Democrats and Republicans disagree about a thing That is one thing that layered on this was then Senator Jeff murkily was allowed to read. Parts of the letter that I didn't directly criticized sessions, which was also like another bad look amplifying this that you at this man was about to speak this woman, who wasn't that was all technically.
In the bounds of this rule. Nineteen of understand it, but like again when just like amplifying that's ok, but I want. I want to not pretend that any of us on the level for a minute. This is stupid. Six turkey! Will you stupid so number one, and this is a point that Senator Chris Murphy be made, but he's correct. One of tricky things about nodded, hating senators to cabinet positions is then, when their nominations are being considered, you have to actually be able to criticise them, because that is the job of assessing a cabinet nomination. If you disagree with the person you think they're about FED. You have to say so and explain why nobody gets him and try to persuade your fellow senators. So, typically you don't see this rule invoked in these. And also this rule is basically never invoked and almost never in this way, like TED crews. On point which Mcconnell lying on the floor of the Senate. There's like a whole thing right, I read a cancer yeah there's this Sunday is actually not
there's a place a lot of the time period. What is going on imputing of mode right about that? But what is going here, and I'm not sure this credit got king thing had a lot of impugning about. I mean you, it's depends on how you'd do thinking. This stuff right like constantly constantly be idiot legal arguments. The two sides throat each other are deeply impugning. Others like me, you ever hear Bernie Sanders explained. Why are public and wants to do? Anything Is it planning of motive and we ever has an billion? Have you ever hear? Ted crews explain why Democrat wants to do anything? It isn't imputing of motive like I have heard these guys speak. What is happen, yeah, but I do think is interesting and I dont know that I want to take his full instruction, but Republicans in the Senate really hate Alyssa foreign specifically like she. She is not there to make friends. As the saying goes and is also very self conscious e rising up as a sort of leader of in its Trump opposition, both having broadly in the country and in the Senate, and
so they are like she has managed very effectively and she's. I think good at this has managed to provoke them into a very unwise over reaction, which has made her, moreover, ass of hero and and and her probably the Jeff sessions cause, even though he did he did get confirmed, but but rule. Nineteen thing I just want people to go away. Thinking like oh yeah, well, I guess you get. You can totally do that. This is not how the Senate works, and I know when I put this kind of context of the overall cabinet fight we ve been having, which I think we also want to discuss it further like a lot of these winning moments for Democrats, even though they do not seem to be successful and stopping people. Betsy device was confirmed on a with the Thai breaking vote from price per se my pens yesterday they were unable to stop that, but they even got two legislators to flip. They really got people like engaged in learning how to call their legislators office end. It again and again, these strike me as a kid
examples like Azra, saying, of just kind of unforced errors that air a really good for liberals in terms of like riding up their members of getting them. Engage that didn't have to happen. You can found someone more qualified than device you could have just Senator weren't read the letter back. But, unlike both, these this is their ears that they don't seem like they have to happen, but they seem to do it. decent amount. It is really relates. Our last segmented do decent amount to keep people interested in raged at what is happening here, and it is worth, I think, drawing the contrast between, like when Trump PIG, John Kelly's general former head of? U S southern command, which is responsible for Latin America to run the Department of Homeland Security.
Some Democrats voted against him for one reason or another to make a point, and you know I keep their scorecard out, but he was just confirm the right way you don't even somebody like GUM Bank Carson who came into them meetings with senators and like did the little offers of assurances that you normally do in these things. He got confirm to and got it with warns vote. Yet I'm in here you gotta was with mourns road. He got shared Browns vote and get over. There were some complaints, particularly, but Carson One, because he doesn't seem that that well qualified politics has changed a lot. There is a lot more polarization than they used to be. People are completely right about that. It's not the old days. It is also true that it's not like the old rule book is like completely out of the galaxy right, like Trump has on occasion, decided to pick
people who are either highly conformable like Kelly or else who, like Carson, want to do the work to get themselves confirmed and like it works right. Jeff sessions did not in the course of any of this say like you know what it was wrong of me to say that immigrants from the Dominican Republic have no skills to contribute to America? I was trying to make a point about the skill mix of fuel forward. Looking immigration but like that was offensive. I know that there are hundreds of thousands of domestic and Americans in the United States who find that offensive. I understand why that's offensive like I've. Read it back to me and, like I get it, you know like. I am sorry that I said that we, Gonna keep having a disagreement about how visas should work, but I shouldn't have said he didn't do it like you didn't apologized for anything and instead, I think part of how you got this is if you saw his hearing a bunch of other old, why republican
eyes from the south asked him questions like. Doesn't it make you sad that people here are kind of drawl and they think oh you're, a racist, and he was again does make me sad and they had like at nice, like old, rich white, southern guy, petty party for themselves, which is great like he's, got the votes he's getting in, but if you're sitting there and like your wife is demand again, and people like this I just said no dominican people have any skills to proper. I heard that current Scott King said we can't make this guy adjudge cause he's a racist, his you know his name for confederate generals he said he disliked the KKK only when he found out that they smoke marijuana. You know like it's that there's like us stuff on there and they did not try to make this go down easy and that's why it's not going to any is the biggest gift the Democrats could have given the
but ministration would have been to somehow be able to defeat divorce and sessions. It would have made the Trump administration much better off. Both of them are lightning rod. Divorce appears to me to be extremely extremely unqualified, for her job does not really know. What's going on could potentially create some real disasters. sessions, is an incredibly controversial figure and, back to meeting at humble rice in this for come. What has he been confer? It is now. I think you well this week, but it s a clone under radar with, like is massive complex about. Don't, let's see, let's see what happens later this week, re like who fuckin hooves, spirits data- things will change but yeah. So what will see were price goes, but I do just wanna. This goes for point. Matt had me Well, we're talking about Democrats getting rid of the filibuster on cabinet armies and twenty thirteen, and you argued this- was actually sort of good for them, because
and I remember remember this- is what you put it, but but one thing it's happening is it I dont think Republicans really wish these were the nominees I have heard stories about publicans, feel about device and and actually also about sessions, and did that these are not super popular figures in their public and party. These. These are not who were publicans. Thought president marker Rubio- was going to nominate these agencies, and these are not folks, Republicans one. I've hang on their heads and twenty. Team when they, when they run for reelection or when they try to pick up democratic seats. If the filibusters still around John Kelly would have gone through, Jim Madame would have gotten it through and that chop administrations: initial bad ideas to pay back Jeff sessions for his support for the presidential campaign and to give to foster the seed because nobody else appear to want it. They would have had to stop. Unlike fine,
some folks were more qualified reply. Had very similar ideas to take over these positions, folks, who d been much harder for Democrats to organise against, but it didn't work like that democratic, don't have the filibuster. They were unable to stop these now patients, so what they instead did was severely wounded people going into the positions, and now they have an organizing issue, whereas republicans hoop Also wanted. These nominations stopped just didn't want their fingerprints on. It are now here defending Jeff sessions, a guy who many do not really like many them really disagree with immigration and and on a resurgence of rights issues and sitting here watching with Warren go vile reading a credit card king letter against their new attorney general. It's a total faster and it, and it is a way in which I think the absence of a filibustered, a muddy debility here is at least at this moment. Working in that cuts favor. If none of the country's favor I mean the devising, I think, is the clearest example of that because, like the biggest thing with her she's
pretty normal republican education views but buttocks three issues, all the way to one side of them But she was also is revealed in her hearings: she's, not good at talking about education policy in a somewhat contentious forum, and that just like something, you want your educate It's like America needs and education. Socrates, good it like Donald Trump, specifically needs an occasion secretary who can like do events around the country where is like Donald Trump. Education policy is good and then someone asks are hostile question and she answers it. Well, that's like that's just like you bread and to say I've seen some discussion of this is like our trumps run in the table and his cabinet nominees. But it's it's a win for trot to force through in education secretary, whose bad at verbally parian questions from L, Frank and because she's gonna have to testified I'll, Frank and still gonna
there you know and just to be like well. Ok, we're just gonna, never have a spokesperson like that's, not good! You see it with the White House staff, rightly when transpired as a bad job. People aren't like what this shows. How effective trump is, like he's got a press secretary. There. Even, though, is bad. It is job like no. That gets back right that you want people who are good and Tom price. The same thing like I guess his impressive, that they're gonna get this guy confirm, even though he might end up going to jail, but he might a code Dear sir, would you would you just lay out the temporary situation gets a tunnel. The situation is essentially since his nomination. There are a number of news outlets and innocent, really respected ones, officer, eternal pro publicly that have shown a number of incidents that really strongly suggest that you he was using his position of power in Congress to profit offer of different healthcare decision. So I think you see a few examples where there is some kind of rule where there's
rule coming out that either would have hurt you no particular kind of device maker, and he was one, who would lobbying that and then receive a campaign don't to write a letter saying like we should not have this regulation, though it would not say that adversely affects company acts, and so there is a lot of separate ones. At this point it doesn't seem to be like one instance: prices repeatedly defended themselves. He had no special dealings that these companies, I think it's a pretty weak defence, but It does not seem to have delayed his nomination in any but there is also a trading issue Treating issue seems to me the other one, corruption. I think that people's rethink is always happening in Washington. The trading issue seems really bad. Yes, Man has more than of these two different things like one is he's been like buying selling healthcare stocks, while doing things that influence you say what they really quickly boxes:
Allow people like leg, just a literal, individual writers to own individual stocks, accompanies they cover like that is normal thing, internal and other than normal ethics roles. How was it the Washington Post? It happens a lot, this guy's a legislator, that's just excellent work on healthcare working on the low prices on healthcare issues. I would also say: wait if you ask any academic bob, I should you buy sell individual stocks. Is that good? For you? Is that a good way to make money? They will say? No? No, it isn't the one reason it might be. A good idea to buy and sell individual stocks is because you are illegally profiting from insider and for me, right so for members of Congress to just obscure the opportunity to do this is no sacrificed. Right there. There are real things which like to avoid the appearance of impropriety. You might need to make a sacrifice but like
only way, you can reliably make money. Picking stocks like this is, if you are using your political power and unethical way, there is considerable evidence of members of Congress. Do that there's a couple good papers on eight members of Congress get super normal returns, but there was recently, a few years ago a law passed the stock act that was supposed to tighten the screws on legislators. Doing this praise I can't say that he violated it. You would need to do more of an investigation, but like things they should do and investigation and like they might. What does it look like happened? Emulate looks like he would buy stock in a company. And then go to a dear colleague letter to advance the companies interests than theirs. So the in some ways even more shocking thing of this, but like his buddy Chris. Poland's, whose another house member his family were you're, like early investors in some Austria,
again like biotech start up and they like cut price in on some Earl invest our offer, so he could by a bunch of discounted shares in it, and then shepherd through legislation that was good for this cause of company. So price cut asked about this investment in his hearing, and he said that, like there was no special deal, that it was just open to any body, and you know there was nothing. And then the Wall Street Journal came out with a story a couple weeks. I believe, as I know, it is only available to five people. So Democrat the committee said: ok, like he's gotta come back and testify again, because lying to Congress is a cry and you can't say based on that, that he lied to Congress or not I mean who knows you know people can be confused about these things, but I say as a courtesy to hum price. They offered him the opportunity to come back and clarify what was going on here
Republicans and Finance Committee refused to do a new hearing. Democrats did a little walk out to protest id, so they changed the rules. Wars get advances nomination without any Democrat, and this is the kind of question words like. I really think we're going not a step back and for what purpose are they doing this? I get they like Tom Price. They agree with him on healthcare policy. There are hundreds of wicked members of Congress It's not like hard to find. Nobody think somebody who, I saw I disagree here. I think, like Tom Prices, someone who, like really understands how to repeal Obamacare, he is the only guy who is actually written out and legislative language what he wants to do. So I think they're, like is- and why one? be so committed to this particular person grit like. I think this is like real sketches stuff like we want to someone else. I do see the reason why,
they are, particularly in its energy links, like oh I've, seen people doing like a score card mentalities like a high above my head to withdraw Tom dash. Oliver attacks thing, but Trump with his like prowess, is like a price. They were like a car like of where we must start building. Why are you here? Like that's confuse, like Obama, wanted Tom Dash ought to be his age s secretary, but then, when it turned out, did it. Was these like bad store is about Tom National lobbying. They didn't want it to be a jet secretary anymore. It wasn't like there was nothing that could have been done to try to forces under its own, but because the bed, the job of the administration, is to support the president and the party and to make them all look better like this is a situation where a guess they're gonna get away with it, but like Tom Price, is this close to, like Republicans, lose the house in twenty eighty, and this can be a big Gillian hearings
that's right, who knows some day, maybe he's gonna, be in New York, maybe attorney General Schneider meant, is gonna, get cute and have arrested like you, don't like it, don't want people you may be doubled from wants people who will facilitate Donald Trump being corrupt, but someone in Europe and I would go further like I think I think this is bad on two levels and Ngos to both what mad and Sarah saying so one everything you do and healthcare art, it is hard. Most of it is unpopular. The trade offs are always very refreshing to talk about. One of them come enough as a long episode, weeds return, what She is you just whenever you make those trade us. Whenever you do a bill, it is going to look. Some industries are benefiting and even some companies have benefited cause. They are I mean day when you restructure big things. Some people are winners and some people losers. What you want be able to say how does he outcome of a fair process? You dont want somebody who's coming in already damaged by view that the people who are winning actually you look. It connects to the kind of biotech firm. The Tom price had an investment in that's bad.
The other thing- and this goes a little bit. I sort of disagree with your point here. Sarah just in this one way you're, I totally agree temporary. No, Stuff much better than most Republicans, it he's done more work on it and I think that's bad for them in the sense that Tom Price the record and it's the wrong kind of record. It is like a very unfair popular bill that, in the interim period between whenever they actually figure out an Obamacare replacement, if they ever do and now like the Democrats, just be like the Tom Price Bill gates, Bill Gates and Paris Hilton as much of a tax cut is like the poorest mother in you know Whirl Arkansas, and this is so lot in that in what he's done, it's it's a long record to attack, cease we'll tendency of a guy who's, got a corruption record to attack and the unpopular bills to attack, and we cannot, they could have, is gonna governor. Just got in somebody who had run who ran Medicaid for my pants. Somebody, like my pants likes his magic.
Reforms that personal data gives main person and made her right under our top priority, Burma, where did you could have you could have made her known worldwide? Like nobody said anything she's, perfect, she's, better qualified frankly than been price or any elected politician, and it just it would have been five. I just. I do not think there thinking about this strategically and I don't think it's going well. So we talk about one of Em Tom prices, ideas on how to ensure that he shares many of his public and colleagues. Yet let my nose smart healthcare idea, poor math, I understand a mediocre healthcare idea of where mouth nailed it. This is the really interesting his interest. Creative, it's very creed service right. This mouth is creative. Ok, do so a couple weeks ago, weeks months years at a headlong Donald Trump as president for Forever Vietnam mountains. So
There was an executive board if one, the very first thing he did- was it extremely vague executive order about kind of loosening regulations and urging agencies to take a very lacks view of how to comply with it with a bomb care was unclear what that would mean or what it would resolve into, but up in Post, Jonathan Cone friend, a friend of the pot gust report, the things are thinking of doing is so Obamacare has a provision, a regulation that is quite a popular both mama kids and among ensures an and it's called a trading, and when it basically says is that you can only charge sixty four year old three times. What would charge a twenty one year old there, it they're limiting how much you can charge older people, verses, younger people, and this has the effect of making health insurance more exciting. For young people and much less expensive for older people and different a publican plans tried to changes in different ways. What trumps administration is apparently cons?
during doing is releasing regulation, saying that, because of the number, he point. Four nine rounds the three way, instead of the regulation being have to do a three two one. Eight raining: you can actually do a three point, four nine to one rating because of rounding. So This is like instantly global, clearly thinking insane interpretation of the law, battlefield round. Do you think we're trying to get the right? That's how I agree that this is how around I wonder whether I could run to three point: five break as it would round anyways we used to go out on the table. We need to get bread plumber, who normally words about environmental issues, but was a math major after the o b, has declared that the government believes rounding is to the nearest significant digit, but it's a psychic, crazy interpretation of the law. Baggily was written for as law. Professor Michigan has said the girl
Do the price tag of something with three dollars and you went to the checkout. They said. Actually it's three hundred and forty nine they're the same numbers. You said no, it's three dollars to get his. It seems very hard see how his like actually stands up as a legal interpretation of the law, but it also seems completely plausible that you, push this through and the legal challenges and take long enough that you can do this This is a way of getting into our white paper or white papers of the week, which are about the underlying issue here, which is a serious issue and is a very tough trade offset around a run. A trading I've been reading a bunch articles about this in their pretty good analyses of this done by ran down by the Urban Institute and and that they come to different views. But what I like the actuarial Society of America, but over them the trade group is called. There was a piece it should have had their numbers in here and then said basin actuarial models. The three one
being increased premiums by between five and ten percent for people between the ages of twenty five and forty, so between five and ten percent between twenty five and forty, but promise reduced fifteen to twenty five percent for people aged fifty five to sixty four now I want to be a little clear here, because at age, twenty five and twenty six, this prior little bit larger than five to ten percent. Twenty five to forty is large range. But that is, broadly speaking, what you see you see a moderate but but significant rise in premiums for younger people and a very sharp drop in income names for older people. What a lot of republicans want to do is switch to a five to one eight rating band and ran has looked at this and again this would mean that you could charge an older person five times. We could charge younger person and saran looked at this and said for-
a sixty four you're. All the annual premium for a typical silver plan, which is sort of the average planet under Obamacare, would grow from eighty five hundred to ten thousand six hundred to be an increase of two thousand one hundred dollars. A twenty four year old would see their previous fall from twenty. Eight hundred to twenty one hundred sewed be a cut of so hundred dollars now there's a little bit of offsetting work here, because you are able to get more young healthy people into the pool. You could potentially bring down premiums at least a little bit for everyone, but but most people have talked you don't think that affected be very big sear, basically asking the core of of who is for and who are you trying to benefit? You can make your system look better and have lower premiums if you basically make health insurance too expensive for lot of older people to buy it or just make them pay more of their own freight, whereas you can make health insurance much more accessible to older, sick or people. If you are willing to have the healthier younger people bear or of the cost. This is something where it in a very strange way: cuts in the opposite way of everybody's
political demographics. Democrats are extremely strong among young voters, but they favour a policy that makes healthier more expensive, reimburse Republicans arcs really dependent on these older voters for their support, but they got first. we want to do on. Obama cares, make health insurance more expensive for older people, so the politics of this are very strange and and and the trade offs are very difficult, Baby Kirsty her sir you're you're thinking on this So I think you know when things you could have a knee jerk reaction, that Lake Democrats did this and Republicans want to do that in their public. You would they will this one must be good in this. One must be bad, I think that you know what I've talked to folks who worked on the lie: There is some sounds like they have question like whether they set the right age. Man like I think you run into that Albania reporting as well, that this is an issue. I think that if we had Clinton ministration, they would be considering similar things, and maybe they would go to like four thousand two hundred and fourteen sample. They might not go all the way to four I'd say, very importantly, they don't three point, seven five, who knows you know where they would land, but this is
issue that I think has challenged the law. because you know that you're law has not got in the amount of young people that the White House initially set out to get our member. We talk to the White House right when the healthcare law was launching and I think they said they wanted about like one third of enroll to be between twenty six and I'm thirty four and right now there, like a quarter between that amount, so they have not hit their targets. Would be. You know I don't think the Democrats Phillip they got it fully right, but I think there's also concern going all the way to five to one What am I believe most x rays, I've talked to think as a more natural disaster you shouldn't, where you're centrally, like paying to cover your health care costs, not like subs, Ah subsidizing in the way you do at three, two one totally clear what how that market change would would pay who would be scared away? Who had come in as voice saying that and some level this gets back to the original sin of this exchange system, which is that
as the architects would explain to you, it only works. If you include a hideously unpopular, individual mandate to purchase health insurance, or else be penalized, the government, but then because it was unpopular, they didn't want him. Make that stick that much. So then you wind up with all these subsidiary conversations demeanor. I remember when, when they launched healthcare that govern I was brought in a thing with with David, SAM S, son and tar, and they were talking about. You know going to sell this, and there was this whole controversy about these trump can cancel the tell them. adds and now we're talking about the age rating weight and like when we thought about this, like just cite gossip, sheet of Paper and Somerset sketching out how it's gonna work right. It's a three legged stool and the leg of the stool that does all this work is the individual mandy right. If enemies, subsidies, yes, innocent wet with
what we have three let her, but even if the three legs were work, everybody would be buying health insurance because they had two and then People might be paying more than they wanted to in some abstract sense, but it would be affordable for everyone because they would be subsidies and then because everybody was in there would be a risk spreading and eat it would all work and like it doesn't work I mean I think this, like the Paul Ryan rhetoric like this is lying. So we should throw everyone on the street like is kind of crazy, but it is also true that we have now had years worth of different sort of patchwork efforts, and it's like me you, can do better tv campaigns, and maybe we can make up the idea that three point four nine is the same as three, but it's like it. Their trust, being to make people want to buy health insurance that it was supposed to be. People would want to buy because you had to, but as serious written right against,
Sir Land, which is allegedly the model of how this can work. They they put you in jail yeah, I read through they definitely miss your wages. If you don't sign up for insurance in Switzerland, like they are going to make sure you sign up for insurance, they will put you in an automatic plan that was garnishing, your wages, if you're somehow to get out of the wage garnish men like too ill time as a possibility to really serious manner. I will say, though I don't think it's totally fair to make the sweeping assessment that people don't want to do this. I look at I think, it's very state based at this point and like the post he's in the ACA work. When you have a community that is receptive to, amending them if you ll get California's marketplace, for example, they just put out data this year that thirty seven percent of their enroll. These are young adults, which is a great risk of excellence. Like a fantastic pulled that you want. I generally agree like the palace, That exist are not working well in the current political climate, but I would not take that to say that's because they are like bad policies that that can,
work- and I think they do have to be the responsive to the fact- a lot of people, don't like Obama CARE and are not going to work to implement it, but I take it as an indictment that, like the thing was not that outbreak women amusingly. It's like the three two one banned. The thought that the three one band would be a regulatory tweak in the country of like a universal enrollment scenario. Would you know, one moment was- can be driven by mandate plus subsidies right to have you were that world you'd be having one conversation which is about how much cross subsidization between young to old. Do we want we're now having a kind of different conversation which is how much cross subsidization from young to old. Can we get a? Can we like a forward without breaking the system right? And that's because, like this wall that was supposed to make people say, ok, I'm gonna get in is
fully effective and there is way more like carrots and fewer sticks than the like abstract notion of how this was supposed to work. I think it's brother and I think, is actually worth brought anywhere conversation on so different ways. You could fix us. One is the age reading an end! One thing I do that you cannot take away from these actuarial pieces on this. Is it it in Obviously the Adrian will do as much as people hope it well that they did it? Sometimes a move prices a lot, but particularly in markets, Reno lotta competition. It may not do as much as you hope there. It might. Dr healthy people out of the older, healthier people out of the poor, in which case it will have there'll, be a backlash effect on prices. So that's! That's bad, You could to turn up the individual men and obviously nobody's gonna. Do that, but you could do that that would be affects you could increase subsidies, Portugal, you could even do targeted increases in subsidies for young but would be another option of that sort of what President Obama I suggested.
interview with him. Vavasor publisher. Can you do that? A prey in sting idea. I heard on this recently I was interviewing. Is he going on you all of who was one of the architects of the bills working out Peter Orszag on that? And he said that he thought A really bad idea in the bill was actually its most popular policy, which is keeping kids up to age twenty cents on plans, because that is a lot of young kids like eighteen to twenty six, the he said the kids who are doing that are the kids, whose parents care about whether or not they have health insurance or to make sure they signed up, and that is all very young people you ve taken out of the annex Lenny, like thereby body parents of employers, months or insurance noticing they could afford to buy them, are so everybody loves that policy like democratic the first. Democrats say when a robbed me it's. How can our place like? What are you gonna do about the kids at age, twenty sex and the first thing I hope we can say is like nothing we're getting. that forever, but that is a policy completely working again, But everybody wants to have happened here so
There are a lot of ways to tweak it. That's the problem really is that you have very little support for any the individual policies, because they all have really bad trade offs and so just like to go through them one by one. If you change age raiding. The trade off is your screwing over older people right you are making health insurance more expensive for older, her people and you're probably going to drive some healthier old people out of the market. I don't want to keep saying old, because sixty two is and I'll be. You know what I mean older. So that's your trade off there there's no free lunch, you're driving out the healthier older people and making life very hard for older sicker people who need health insurance. So ugly, tradeoff subsidies, the train of his. U have to spend more money, the gipsy under the world, but I think Republicans, relearn not are not happy about doing that. The individual it is just in every respect and extremely unpopular policies up. So that's that keeping kids on on insurance page twenty six also doubt be taken out the most popular policy in the bill. So that's not apply
their change and all this goes to show. I think the fundamental problem republicans keep running into here and everybody is kept running into, which is there are no free lunches on this. There is oh easy answers. There are no easy fixes. Healthcare is hard. Anything you do creates win and losers, I think that even more difficult your extremely ideologically opposed to government action and in the system and the reason Republicans keep not really coming up with plans on this is because there are not really good ideas here this through. Four nine thing. They could do it and it will, I predict, have virtually no effect on the markets. It is just not enough to have a serious effect on the back for evil of good ideas and easy answers. You know poach some some chap trappers market share here, but that like what what people like is when the government taxes
people and they use the money to give other people free healthcare. I mean it's not like. You know, there's no political obstacles to that, but, like the medicate expansion, part of the affordable care ACT is proving to be, I would say much more robust durable and like a less plagued by like constant second guessing. Unlike have we created weirded minister vulnerability is then, then this exchange system and I was a believer. You know I like there for that run widen amendment two like let company start doing the dumping into the exchanges sooner and like maybe we can have a gun. bar again will Republicans stop repealing the affordable care act, but we raise them
care age limit, because cause Obamacare like gonna, be so great and like this- is going to be the healthcare system and weaken transition federal employees into an end like nobody is talking about that stuff. Now, like I'm, not hung about that stuff run, widens not talking about stuff, nobody, you certainly nobody is like exogamy annual enjoys being perverse, and so was talking about throwing twenty five year olds out her parents other concerns. But that's like you should talk to his brother about like a ridiculous, rather nobody's ever going to do that, and I think you saying you could do it now. I think you saying that that was not re afraid I mean I I get it. I get your bill. It's like Republicans problem is that, like this, health insurance is- a way better than being uninsured, unlike their basic ideas, is pull the rug out from everybody and then your screwed, but like what has been created, good compared to other way is that people are getting health insurance in America and I think, we're fine, The people are interested in our most
about expanding those other kinds of systems that seem hardier and not really about this. ain't. You yeah, no doubt that when I was in Kentucky one of the things that surprised me was a lot of people on the private market place we're like screw those I want Medicaid like It's much more robust. It very little cost sharing by the actual thing using as there are the three point, four nine thing we'll have a small effect Gabriel's, and when I give the trumpet menstruation well credit here in the context of where their proposing this is a regulation to kind of shift in some small way is how the marketplace his work and twenty eighteen- and I was actually surprised at how much these regulations and come out yet allowed. The details have been reported by John Conan Huffington posed India and diamond and politico, but it's really is Deregulation like that's, making a plead insurance bananas to stay in the marketplace and twenty eighteen and I'm think like if it does have the things that it is pointed to have it might be successful.
On that level, because some of the other things it's doing its shortening the open enrollment period to fewer days, it's really tightening theirs special and roman periods like if you have a baby or if you move states its making it harder to qualify for those in a way that I actually think Satin SAM up until now, which required very little documentation you to set a checkup ox. It said I move states which is great. If you get sick, you just check that I'm states Box and then all of a sudden you have health insurance. This would requires and documentation before could get coverage. So these are really the sweet of changes that like when I've talked ensures over the past few years they ve been lobbying. They were lobbying, thereby administration for these particular changes. So do you know, I think, of the three point, four nine thing as as part of this peace offering to health insurers- and I could seen before I read about it, it going to ways where you could see Republican sang the marketplaces
plodding and then the marketplace implode makes it look Obamacare imploded. This suggests the less interest in that path that they think it's in their best interests to keep them are he's a stable and twenty eighteen and the way they think they're going to do that is by making the exact changes insurance companies about four and making it like a more palatable environment to sell on There is one point on the piece about Medicaid. I do think it's worth just. You could fix this could fix it in medicate and you can fix it in the exchanges and I think because we do get off on all these discussions about regulations and we often them because The main obvious thing you would do is just not on the table, which is about says it is popular to tax rich people to give poor people healthy.
Florence- by don't actually they get a Medicaid versus exchanges problem. If you doubled subsidies at the exchanges tomorrow, a lot of these problems would disappear immediately. This which I like the insurance, would be cheaper people beginning better insurance premiums, aid would be paying would be like ever. Everybody would be extremely happy with that of the problem is that they're just hasn't been political will to do anything like that, and so I think that both sort of the Medicaid up an end. The exchange option have the same problem now. This is a different question. Aunt Kate is cheaper, that's the metal, cakes vengeance obey its cheaper, but, on the other hand, Republicans are more puts too it. That's like the thing that you keep running into here: yeah, listen, I think like if you could go back in time. What you would do is just given You know like put everything in turn, medicate up to three hundred percent Medicare down to fifty five and you know some extra time to having a manual brother, hunch, health, but but the you know when it. When I talk to you about that for peace There- and I do- and I ve been talking to Fox about this alike
like when we were talking to bend Nelson and these folks, like that, with that kind of thing was a non starter. Yes, because they anything that looked like you are destroying single pair by attrition would have massive insurance industry lobby against it. Massive pharmaceutical lobby medicated cheaper in part because it forces providers to pay all right. So I don't think I agree with you on some level, but I think that's another thing words like you. Look it and then you start walking down the path and it turns out it's actually harder. It's it's another thing that has allowed a difficult tradeoffs attached to it. Everything is terrible, Zephyr recommend excellent podcast to your friends Rachel about omens, there's no trade offs there. That's all it's it's a win win for everybody! It's it's! It's for us for you for your friends for sponsors, for producer, Fume Shapiro for everybody without and we also good to listen to the airline podcast, where this week I care swish or on I'm, not I'm sceptical that, but the
because then you can't listen to that. We have this much lupin out, one weeds. We listen to a classic epicycles. Some we put out last week. We will see an extra
Transcript generated on 2021-09-14.