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Trump’s tariff triple option


Jane, Dara, and Matt discuss Trump's efforts to halt unauthorized immigration through Mexico by threatening tariffs, and a white paper on private prisons.

Related reading:

Dara’s “remain in Mexico” explainer

Trump’s plan, explained

Mexican president’s response to Trump

White paper

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Yeah. This is Marquez Brownie Acre and Cuba HD, and this is Andrew, Manga Nellie. We will introduce you to our podcast way form the nuisance. Into the box media back ass network, so I've spent for ten years, reviewing tech products and consumer electronics for millions of people on the income. Fifty Youtube Channel and now on the way forward Ass, Andrew and I use that experience to dig even deeper into latest tech for smartphones too. I max to electric cars so if you're gadget lover orator cat or, if you just want to figure out whether the latest gadget is worth your harder in cash. Give us a lesson say, can find waveform empty if they pass on your favorite Pakistan every Friday see over there. Do you anything from France, I mean I'm gonna, be returning to this lake avocado, less Carla's, wasteland yeah, it's gonna, be Jimmy, I'm a thing that I would cutters will still be cheaper and more widely available and the United States than in France I mean. Maybe we need to do a little reporting on this
hello welcome to another. So did the weeds, only bucks media, podcast network. I met glaziers, I'm here with Jane coasted and terror, and I want to let you guys know at the start, we want you record another asked the weeds anything episode in the near future. So in order for that to happen, you those first need to ask us things. If you want to send us an email at weeds at boxed outcome or to us, personal Our addresses are on the internet available, find it sent a few questions. We won't answer them live on the air for me or mad or Jane or for all three of us represent combination therein. And if you, if you have extremely specific college football questions for me, you should definitely ask those the more we are Definitely not getting those on the pact now cut college for both questions are therefore
God, fine than I need all of your questions about major league baseball, ok after the weeds anything sports to stick to sports, yet Finally, but before we get to the show, I want a director to tell you guys are about, but her life So those of you who follow me on social media or members of the weeds Facebook group are already aware of this just to let you guys know if as much as anything. cause, I'm about to go on vacation next week, and I don't want people to be confused about what that means I am leaving vocs dot com as a matter of employment. I am going to be a reporter for pro public, which is a nonprofit investigative newsroom, starting in July However, I am going to be continuing as opposed to the weeds, while working at Republika, so you're gonna still be hearing me in your ears on Tuesdays, ah that is going to mean I'm going to be offer a couple of weeks back it rocks for a week and then starting
bubblegum. But as far as you are concerned, the weeds listener. After I get back from vacates. In France in the last week of June. I should be here on Tuesdays, the immediate future cell, just saying fantastic, so one to talk today but tariffs, new tariffs on Mexico, but the tariffs on Mexico are about the boy and finally, and apparently with Mexico, is going to clinical fix the immigration situation by what, like July fifth or something by June tenth. Yet I do have some very greatly. You can set up a good brunch by June. Tenth, no, especially just like the president is in the UK and they re going to France. I am not going to overlap with the President in France, but, like I fully anticipate that by the time I get back, you know the last week of June. It's going to be this avocado list. Corliss wasteland so only will be stopped, for
hundreds of deaths are admitted a bit. So here's the here's. What has actually happened you recall a couple of months ago, when Donald Trump was threatening to close the. U S, Mexico border. I visit one of the things that he was kind of threatening in the mixed their way a year from now. If Mexico, it not quoting, could solve its current quote immigration problem, which, as we have discussed on the cast fairly regularly and therefore you are much more informed rather than the average bear. I've refers mostly to people coming Throughs, Mexico. from the northern triangle of Central America. Largely she apply for us Elam or otherwise you no kind of present themselves to border patrol agents in the? U s. So Trump said that if Mexico Haddan addressed that within a year, that he would consider border closures or tariffs. Donald Trump, surprising, very few people does not appear to be patient and to adhere to his own timelines and therefore, above the strenuous efforts
actions of many of his weight has, various, and most economic advisers, Trump announced on Thursday that because people are continue to come through Mexico to add to the United States, going to impose a five percent tax on all goods coming from Mexico, in the U S US sitting on June tents and that that would increase to a ten percent tariff in July, fifteen percent tariff in August, etc. Until the problem had been substantially fixed. What means is not entirely clear. It is generally were were innocent. I'd Clara that violate the punishments, are very clear, and the kind of way out of this is much less. Yet it's it's not that it's unclear it's that it is deliberately unspecified so I went on a conference call with secretary
insecurity, acting secretary of Homeland Security aghast and the acting chief of Staff Bank Mulvaney and this was the main question that were porters had for them. Thursday night was what does success? Look like free. What does Mexico have to do for you to take these tariffs off and they wouldn't set in, and I will, I will be frank- they weren't being a vase it in their ants, sweat like they were clearly articulating that their strategy was to not put out a public demarcation of what it is: Lee Mexico had to do. They said that they wanted immediate action rather than promises of future action, and they said that they were confident that it was within the capacity of Mexico to do a lot of things that they felt were good, but they would not say they had this very detailed timetable, rights alike July. First, it automatically goes up to ten
percent August first and automatically goes up to fifteen percent unless they cancel it, but then like what were you can What are they made? No effort to sort of this one the good thing about this bargaining right is you want to do a credible commitment strategy. You say: look unless Mexico can do X, Y and Z by September. First, the terrorist gonna go up to twenty percent, and then the pitch to Mexico is we're. Gonna look like huge idiots If we don't deliver on this threat right, we just made a really big deal about it. We were incredibly clear, so this is definitely going to happen unless you do what we want- and they really did not opt for that strategy where they opted for the opposite strategy in which this making a big deal about this? A lot of people in the business community are not happy alot of people, and so go or not. Happy, but conceivably Trump could call the whole thing off in exchange for something very, very much
right, and then there's still his hope that leg, despite the fact that Trump himself is travelling this week, Mexican officials, including the Foreign Minister of Mexico, are indeed see in an effort to you know what they were initially phrasing as an act of persuasion shortly were like this. Isn't negotiation. We're not we're just trying to remind the U S that our shared interests in this not happening now. saying. Yes, we think we can make a deal, so it's not totally. Clear. What exactly the status of these discussions is. The size of the mexican government at least publicly right now is very confident. They can avert this looming disaster, and that's because I mean I feel like a trump really likes option now. Eighty in these kinds of situations, right like this is like his strategy. Is you know
I don't know, J J likes College football right, but if it's like one of these, these, like weird gimmick play, is where I believe you're, that is, the option is not a weird gimmick too but anyway, I'm gonna go on with your explanation of a legitimate form of offensives might say galling, you're, just like Trump it is in and is much more gimmicky and pro football, which is mats for primary frame of reference, fair enough at any rate. One way this could end right is: it is twenty five percent income import tariff on goods coming in from Mexico, and then Trump could say. That's good, because there's a constituency they think Staffed is bad trump problem, to bring jobs back above and above all by another universe, is that Mexico makes him The smallest changes, but like send some extra guys to the board of the water oh makes more arrests. The volume of of people coming through sorted goes down.
In part for seasonal reasons, from takes the tariffs off the business community, Claps Trump Alex Tough right so that there's all kinds of different things that go on here and Trump is delayed Britain YE not making it clear whether he thinks pudding. Tariffs on Mexico is good, and therefore that he really wants to go through with it. Unless the Mexicans make huge concessions to em or if he agrees with the sort of business Commune, the conventional wisdom, they putting tariffs that Mexico is bad and it's a bargaining chip that he is just like eager to trade away in exchange for some concessions and he's also being pretty unclear as to like what sustainable victory on this is mid mulvaney at various times during the call seem to indicate that he's trying to increase pressure on congressional democrats to say that, like look like, if Democrats think this is so bad than they should make our concessions on on the border
Frankly, I mean politicians, don't normally do this, because bad way to achieve a specific goal right leg, if there is something you want to do in politics, It's usually in your interests too, like be clear as to what In spite, your allies can help you but Trump I don't know. Trump doesn't like that, like tramp tramp likes the win right and the easier way to come away from something with a win is to be very unclear as to what it is. You are trying to a complex. Because in whatever happens in the end like you can you can go, say it's a win, and so did too. at least like that's why these policies are so so hazy, but clearly at some level, he would like Central Americans to stop trying to come to the United States, and I don't see any universe in which this policy achieves that goal. So I am not sure that this is a deliberate vagueness into. As as much as it is and a genuine differences,
opinion among various players in the White House and possibly with Trump himself, not knowing what he wants like. I think we have substantial evidence that everybody in the Trump White House, but Trump and like certain, people a few other people who are not primarily economic advisers thinks the tariffs are very bad idea right, yes, but you gotta make chromium. Does english trade wars are good and easy to win, and so you know, I think that there are definitely it part of the reason we're not seeing really coherence- strong messaging strategy coming out of the White House is the. What Donald Trump might to say about this and why you now say Mc Mulvaney might like to say about. This are different things. I think the other thing is that Donald Trump is is very upset about the number of people coming. That was absolutely. That is what upsets him trouble ministrations theory of case has always been if we do a few things to crack down on people once they ve entered the? U S, if we, for example, make it so that
companies central american children can be sent back to their countries of Origin court hearings, which is current You can do from asking children by central american children are automatically entitled to a court hearing which means they'll say in the: U S released a few years. If we can detained ways for longer so that we can make sure that they don't. You know, abscond into the? U S so that we can get through their court cases more quickly, and if we can make it so that fewer of them are passing screening interviews to begin with, then, with those the combination of those three things we'll send back some families. The message we'll get around the northern triangle that it's not as easy to come to the? U S anymore and the numbers will decrease. That's a bank shot strategy and its not there's some evidence, The crackdowns over the last few years have led to immediate depths or in a pretty rapid depths, but it's one hundred percent a sure thing. It's mostly just like that's the the way to get most quickly to the number of people declining, because otherwise
stuck in these like long term strategies of developed and other things where you're not immediately gonna, see the numbers going down. The alternative strategy, of course, is you Mexico, to make sure that people don't get to the? U S in the first place, which is what was done in twenty fourteen. I has kind of being the preferred strategy. pre tromp from makes this a little bit harder because of course, he's not always in our his is tack on Mexico is, alternatively, that you're trying to undermine the U S and that they are the best partner that the Eu S has in this regard, but lake. You know that The situation has been saying that there are a few specific things that mexican officials can do to like contain people once they're right after they ve crossed into Mexico, because just geographically speaking like these, Guatemala, Mexico Border, is kind of its mess, whereas the Mexico West Borders, this very long and uncontrollable thing, and so
spatially at least they are saying that it would be easier from Ex go to do these things and it would be just at rely on the: U S to do once they get here. That explains the congressional Democrat angle in all of this right, mulvaney is saying, is the things that we think are rapidly going to fix. This. Aren't the severally things that aren't things that we can do on our own. There things that we need Congress to pass a law for so we're gonna make this happen, but the reason that this is happening. I think policy wise, not just in terms of this weird strategy, where they're trying to get congressional democrats to possibility by threatening trade war with Mexico policy wise. The other thing they want out of mexico- and this is kind of the holy GRAIL, something that Mexico has said they really don't want to do is a safe third country agreements which we have talked about on the palm cost for, but which based
He says to countries sign a deal saying: oh, we agree that either of us is a perfectly reasonable place for somebody to seek asylum if their persecuted. So if somebody sets foot in country a and then crosses into country B and six asylum country be they're, gonna get sent back to country I and vice versa. So this is what the? U S has with Canada? The? U S really thinks that Mexico is this, third country, Mexico, is not willing to accept the responsibility that comes with being a safe third country that a but a bunch of countries that, where, like one percent of the population- is leaving this year. and so is. It has said very clearly that that's the one right line that they have consistently drawn and all of their migration conversations with the? U S, but that the one thing that Mexico could give the: U S immediately. That would definitely make it easier for the: U S to start turning people back on mass, and
would be wouldn't be a kind of credible commitment thing. It would be a working to sign this deal right now, thinking about these tariffs, because I think that the way that tariffs are often described makes doesn't make it clear how much tariffs are impacting on the consumers of the country that puts the tariffs on the other country. We are not that this would not be a tax that be felt by mexican citizens is a well. I mean the thing to remember about Mexico. U S. Trade relations in particular is that a lot of this is car manufacturing, and that means that between like the raw product and the final product, you have several different border pass through. So it's it's hurting, be consumer markets. Both countries right cause anybody
a car in either country is gonna. Have this written documents we compounded tariff at the end of it right? So my question would be with these tariffs, be enough to make Mexico rethink becoming a safe third country because, as you said, Trot has not been clear about what the goal of this would be. He d d like has he yet it's not been exactly clear as to like you. I was a wedding over this weekend. Admittedly, I was not keeping my ear to the ground on the movements of this particular policy change. I regret that, but would this make the move. That Trump would then say. Ah I have one I got the strong impression that the professionals do not believe that this will induce Mexico to sign a safe third party agreement. That is something that they would like yeah, but did like they are not gonna hold out. For that. It's an I dont. Think vein. Its ultimately not their call like what trump will settle with
but it seemed likely professional opinion of pro immigration hawks was that it would not be reasonable to trial. Hold out for that third country agreements, even though it's what they would like By the same token, by which the Trumpet administration isn't dictating the conditions of a win, because it wants to be able to claim a when they know It is much harder for the mexican government to admit that they, Claude on the one thing they ve been promising. They won't do way now One thing that I think is we're talking about is that what is the the economics of this exactly it, because You get alot of loose talk about higher prices for american consumers and you, don't know exactly what can happen, but I would not expect to see a ton of that in the short term on this.
basis, because one thing that you seen happen is that the value of the mexican peso has fallen by about five percent says this announcement came at, which you know offsets it read so does attacks now and goods from Mexico, but goods from Mexico are cheaper their source right. So Would you then heard is actually Americans, none Americans by things from Mexico, but Americans who sell things to Mexico, because now mexican consumers don't have any money with which to buy this american exports. But then there's like the questions, get bigger and bigger right, which is that fundamentally, what NAFTA did Right was NAFTA's said too american manufacturing concerns Trade with Mexico will be seamless right. that Mexico, is conveniently located to the United States for doing some trade with, and it's not a coincidence that the factories
because the door as do all in Northern Mexico right I mean it's not just that, like their popping up at random and the goods are coming in tax free, it was like what can we do? That is as close to having a factory in Arizona as possible, but mexican wage sweating, like that trade has continued to grow even under tromp lake until this March v, like largest port like by import export volume in the. U S was the air terminal at Allay ACT right, it's now in River Laredo, which is like that that is almost Sclusively? U S Mexico traded like ninety seven percent going through the biggest port, and so the and the hermitage, so that the harm to the mexican economy of this would be a
since that, U S! Mexico, cross border trade is not reliable enough to build a supply chain around that. It's like. If you want something specifically mexican like some other cargoes, then like fine, you buy it, you pay what it cost of the price goes up because the tariffs you sell less, that that's like classical train right, but the like new hyper globalization trade is about the idea that you buy things from foreign countries, not be as you have some like special yearning for farm income oddities, but because it makes good business sense to construct an elaborate multinational supply chain
and so that's. Why, like a lot of the north american auto industry for a long time, has been censured, some of it in Detroit, but some of it in the parts of Antonio that are right by Detroit, and so we ve built up now a lot of supply chain in Northern Mexico, and that's not gonna like of the operator in June, because Donald Trump says there should be a tariff, but it could be blown up bright if people who make investments get the idea that, like this is unstable untrustworthy, that investment will dry up and ask me very harmful to to Mexico, so they are under the gun right At the same time, like american business owners, they they like this arrangement and ultimately the existence of that arrangement makes cars more afore. Right. So there's a difference between in the short term. Like is your car getting at five percent? More expensive items are skeptical in the long run, will we get it? You know maybe definite,
The short run going on vacation in Mexico will become cheaper, so I fear you know interested in some tourist activities. I would. I would definitely sitting that I know that this is not a vocs media pot. Punkahs network podcast worldly, but I do think we talk a little bit about this from the mexican side. So when we take a break- and indeed yes, let's do we live with a lot of noise between the pay the dings. The emails labelled urgent that aren't really that urgent, it's hard to cut through the static zero on the things that really matter just like. We can train our bodies to be better running faster, have you. We could train our minds to stay focused. Do all the noise we live with step. One download head space, hits bases and have loaded with guide. You meditations designed offer a daily doses Mindfulness concessions for every situation like a three minute s away, meditation when you're overwhelmed by the day and even meditations, you could do it. You, kids, when you're all of run by the day had space has been like a really cool.
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and follow up against the mob on Apple podcast Spotify or your favorite podcast app, so I think other thing to inner. Obviously like the? U S is not the only after that has some agency here right leg. Let's does have visuals here in DC, trying to negotiate their like the other thing, I would say a safe third country. The way Jane is that they did not bring any actual migration officials to these hawks, because they're they're trying to put up the stance that migration policy is on the table. In practice, we have certainly seen be foreign minister abroad has been willing to this kind of seeing migration is an annex of? U S, Mexico policy and there's the vibe that they will. commit to things that their migration, the angels, are then like how the hell are we supposed to implement this? That's what has happened with the Romanian Mexico policy, for example, but like they are
also dealing with the fact that the some see a trade deal just got sent to the Mexican Senate on Thursday, like literally the same day that Donald Trump then decide proceeded to do these things announcement, so the Senate has not yet ratified the trade deal. When the american President sent it to the mexican Senate? He said that he expected it to be ratified soon, but lake. There are obvious domestic mexican politics question about whether it's a very good look like. On the one hand, ok, you know you need a trade deal, because otherwise you're going to get a trade war? On the other hand, why are you making a trade deal with somebody who s? Just you know was putting tariffs on your steel aluminum industries last year and be now putting a tariff on all of your goods, so there's that concern there's also just kind of the general. What is the relationship that Mexico has with the United States, because
can president hundreds mental lupus over a door came into office, as in mostly not talking about tromp, like mostly the reason that he wasn't these ass, a gleam brace by the populace, was because of his kind of left populism, but definitely Lake rhetorically seeming, like the kind of guy who would stand up to Trump. Who would reject the NEO liberal consensus that lake whatever is good for the? U S is good for Mexico, because it's good for business. You know who would be, who would be a little bit unafraid to ruffle some feathers on behalf of the mexican people, and instead, what you ve seen is some of the votes and his cabinet, like a bird being very very very solicitous of maintaining good relationship with the Eu S, not necessarily bending over backwards, but like trying retain strong trade relations. In particular, you have folks in the who are actually like running my policy, for example, the interior secretary, who are very committed in theory to human rights and who are a little bit frustrated with having to
go under to the United States, even though their also dealing with domestic migration politics, because there lot of you know there are a lot of kind of local and state. souls were complaining about having to take care of all of these migrants and who are trying to even out make it the federal government's problem or make it somebody else's problem. And then you have a low Andrews men, always Oradour president, just like just kind of waffle. above at all. Like the letter, he sent a trump in like after Trump issued. The terror Was this fairly windy lake appealing to Lincoln Do your leg, It was not exactly a if you hit us, we will hit you back ten times harder kind of thing. It was a. I am sure that you understand to that, we in Mexico appreciate human rights and was just it was not it was not
their showing a lot of muscle, nor was it kind of appealing to economic, shared interest. It was the sort of lake fancy diplomatic letter you send before your dude comes into actually do that negotiations, which is the role that apprehensive currently plain but like theories of very good possibility that why I'll trade and migration have not been primary. Issues do mess. Equally in mexican politics for the first six months of the Imo Administration Cause like there is a lot of concern about infrastructure. There are a lot of concern about what's happening to the civil service vit. The fact that, from his now put this light massive thing in the middle of? U S, Mexico relations might increase the salient of the. U S Mexico relationship domestically american politics, and if that happens, the political pressure will be forever to stand up to Trump.
Right, it'll be too like not necessarily do the Eu S bidding and in approving? U S embassy a it'll, be to reduce the amount of cooperation that Mexico is currently giving to the? U S on migration stuff. So it's not at all clear event on the bell curve of how much cooperation Mexico could have with the? U S on issues of migration, in particular that the mexican government,
currently toward the light cooperative side of the Bell curve and bit adding an additional lake news event that could create political pressures won't blow it back toward the less cooperative side right. I think that there is the presumption of that kind of desire for neoliberal stasis that isn't really reflective of what opinion on the ground that helps get ammo into office really wise. Yet some it. It turns out that no one anywhere like stasis, but I'm interested to see if there isn't any action by, as you said June, tenth at the tariffs will increase, and it seems to me that the argument that this would bring Mexico to the table on specific issues. As you said, we don't know what the specific issues are and we don't know if it would bring Mexico to the table and it seems to me like you. I think terrorists are a complex economic issue and anyone who can argue either for or against their utility
in the United States, politically YO. I think that that's a bit of a fool's errand, but this does seem to be just the kind of like if you were using the stick without the carrot, but you didn't really know what the stick was for. It strikes me that if you are a world leader like a responsible, you know and patriotic global official, you sort of can't give in to this kind now tariff based extortion, because tromp has done. it in such a such a goofy way right. So what we mean when we talk about the legal aspects of this in India but very easy. There is an established framework of trade war right just sort of known, and it's a little bit like gum, You think about like duly in like an old time. He shall right where there's like,
code to it, it's serious and people get hurt, but is also understood to not be like a total blow up in your economic relationship right the department. Commerce does a legal finding that there is a dumping of korean washing machines. that is undermining the Korean, whatever an unfair way, and so therefore, retaliatory tariffs are coming and then the Koreans can take their complaint to the World Trade Organisation. This, like a horrible thing rituals asian of it, creates environmentalist asian, but exactly a thing that is going on in the background, while the two of you are talking about other things across them get any it's fine. What trump did here was. First, he declared a state of emergency and the? U S Mexico border as an effort to get so What are you forget? How worked, but it was like some work around for the Wall Funding right a couple of pots of money that he could tapping. your move around in case of national.
For this reason, a very controversial in the American Congress. He lost some republican boats in a sort of rebuke measure. He he carried the day. but this was not easy and unusual kind of national emergency when everybody in the opposition party says you're emergencies fake and Some of the people in your own party also agree that its fake, rightly emergency declarations, happen time, but their normally not controversial. It's like why these powers not exist to, let you make partisan politics power, looks like they re, usually there also lake. I am, in the emergency declaration as a necessary step for doing this particular targeted thing rat trump, on the other hand, was kind of like I am making the emergency declaration I'm doing X y uneasy things that I can do now, but
Kind of the important thing was also the emergency declaration, because then what happened here is that Stephen Miller seems to have been googling or hound or something, and he found out that there is something called the the national economic Emergency Powers ACT scheme from the seventy is. It was an effort to actually restrict the former incredibly broadly worded trading with the we act, but this law allows the president to impose reg. nations that relate to international commerce and declared national emergencies, and if you look at the list of times, has been invoked It is always always always always sanctions on foreign governments, an individual's tied to that government like all of the possible uses of it. No, it doesn't say in the statute,
the only thing you can do, but, like I e p, a is used to say we are going to freeze the assets of the government of wherever because they just It a coup, anything's tend to Lake on and on I mean I'm subscribed to the white, has pressed list and like every ninety, they eat obediently you'll you'll. Occasionally just get these as a continuation of the national emergency with respect to exactly and so like, there's been a lot with regard to IRAN and Venezuela. Lately the like bad guy countries right that that are out there, This is a totally wild invocation of that power into its doesn't even vaguely resemble innovative ones but there, said, because there is an emergency at the border.
can use. I e p a powers to regulate international commerce and therefore impose this broad across the board tariff on all mexican goods and ate. It sounds like a chamber of commerce is considering some some legal strategies to try to judge this down ends and Republicans are reportedly, yes, just sing having a vote. This is right. Well because I know, but you know, a trumps Wall Declaration was controversial on republics of their considering undoing it, but all. This is to say, wait if you're Mexico, if you give in to tramp on this point right, particularly if he comes away with a face saving compromise. Then Cinema Republicans definitely aren't gonna worldview, cam and then this guy and is. Can we pointed to your head like forever? Right and that's really chance, because Democrats who will oppose Trump on this particular top
are obviously not gonna. Take a principled, long term opposition to like goofy uses a presidential power all presidential powers like there will be a new president that President alike discretionary authority. All residents have- Some issues on the: U S, Mexico, bilateral agenda right, so we would be very, I think, dangerous to Mexico to give in on this, and the political prospects of just winning this fight in the United States are now zero right, like you, can send a foreign minister here to talk to the Trump administration, but the foreign minister can also talked a Senate. Republican sprite can also talk to American, auto industry figures and, like trio, trying to win this thing. So we It seems a good, a dangerous sort of game to me and is also interesting. I mean everything with tromp. I think always ones are coming back to this, but it's like there's some provocative notion.
Who's in Trump ISM. But then there is never a like building of an ambitious policy right. It's like from really feel strongly about this asylum such legally speaking with solution. He wants to. It is a safe third country agreement with Mexico. That is a big ask of Mexico, which does not want to shoulder these Responsibility is a very worthy noting that lake, because the Trump Administration It tends to go like aims. First means. Second, threats are like, lot of things going on. There is a regulation that is being like drafted and circulated that essentially it like unilaterally assess that Mexico is a safe third country. They have been doing this migrant protection protocols, Romania, Mexico thing that is not safe, third country, but has a similar outcome of like required.
Will you stay in Mexico so, like these? Are it is theoretically possible? They ve trumpet. Frazier is in the room saying to Mexico. Look we're gonna do this by hook or by crook back, but like a man This is the vague imagine if there was like a summit ride like the ammo Trump summit. and go to Morrow? I go and they announced this like visionary deal right in which, like big sums of american money. You're gonna head to Mexico. Mexico's can do the safe third country agreements. This can be like infrastructure projects to comprehensive. upgrade is a? U S makes it go at all, and everybody thought was gonna happen when I'm not into office, because what am I really needed from the? U? S was like lots and lots of investment. Southern Mexico grave- and it's just like- I don't know like they just don't- seem to be working on it. Well again that again, I think that there is there's a version of Trump
That happens you, and that is not the one we are working with its like. If we want to the hollow deck, we could go to the older version of crop and what did he has and in like manner we get the healthcare plan that takes care of every right exactly when use. I take it. You I've written about this before this is obviously a much larger and more rudely issue, but like they're, really eel trump, is the concept that there is a distinct lit lake ideology with it. A real framework to what Donald Trump does is a fallacy, because what Donald Trump does is that he said something, and then people try to look back fill in the infrastructure for it, while he? U, while their doing so he's already wandered off to something else. And so I think that on this particular issue, that's even more challenging, because we are aware that this is an important issue to him. We don't know how
or what the ideal result would be or what that were not yet what the policy, with the underlying shaping policies that got him to this point are, and so I think that that makes this complicated because and we are working around a version of Donald Trump. The one that exists. That is not the one who would have a big conference or has like an ideological road for how we would get from where we are now to where he wants us to be. I mean ideological roadmap but, like I know, I've I think, matters does changed my mind about what's going to happen next, they three times over the course of this episode like I do think I think one point that's worth you know you mention in passing that, but I want to pull it out. A little bed is that the problem is Vision is saying that they're asking Mexico for things that are totally within Mexico's capacity to do their vague on what those things are short of safe third country. That aid are not even saying safe, third country, it's just something that Lake Dino, because
talking about on a line on asylum, grandmothers re leg, we kind of you kind of understand what, where that's pointing, but the other things they're asking for like more interdiction, more crackdown on organised crime networks that are operating roots like wheedle halves, civics there, That's not necessarily because they don't have specifics. It could be because they play a lot of U S. Mexico cooperation on migration very close to the chest, and so it's totally possible that lake there is a very detailed set of asks that got sent to the Mexican Terry in the end. An army, the Mexican Migration Agency and like it's either. That kind of small face, saving compromise is going to happen because it's happening in a way that isn't going to look weeds e too. You know like from a public raising perspective, but I think that you ve lay sufficiently persuaded
me that that would not necessarily be a good idea for Mexico because of ie like under the head problem. So if your mexico- and you know that Donald Trump Lakes summits, because a There are lots of visual media. Opportunity must be there. Big dates in the calendar, like the thing about the June tenth day on the tariffs, is that it led like created a guaranteed week of news coverage for Donald Trump with like will hear won't he on the tariffs that might seem a good awaited kind of hash. This all out that this is you know you. going to be playing to the things that the President wants he's going to a lot of attention for like meeting with Mexico and Like Opera, We say some, you, no less than What country things about Mexico in some kind of violence? appearance and am level? I have a little bit of consternation about how to deal with it, but in terms of the policy asks you can get out of that. Maybe that's the thing that Mexico what's now. Is that what the? U? S? Wants?
It is the Eu S just want to be able to continue pressuring Mexico, as this, like, frankly, early rapidly evolving regional situation involving a migration crisis, continues to evolve. Unclear but, like you, maybe maybe the Anglo Trump Marilla. A border summit is the way is like the thing that Mexico could do to kind of get out of this. It turn all you know, border pressure, hell, that's what I would guess and that hypothetical trump is all over I would go on Fox NEWS: Thou art send somebody who who speaks Fire Fox and I cannot like have them? Haven't talk about the glorious deal, the death, the Trump the Trump doctrine? So I think we should take a break and their mission move onto our white paper to talk about private prisons. Yes, the cat is a podcast from New York magazine, but it's much more than that. Its thirty minutes a week we really wrestle with ourselves we're talking society.
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Dr Mass incarceration, but they do increase it that they look at sort of. You know, county pair, the Goal Cross state lines and look at when states make rural changes that allow for more private prisons. a man, and they show that prison scented saying goes up on the side of the state line they did it. This is the kind of study design people been using for minimum wage type studies for awhile they show that young people end up serving longer sentences. Nothing more people get sent to jail, but that the senses become harsher than you would expect. Based on the underlying data they go to a few different ways. You can look at this. They show no sort of racial skew or skewed or particular offences. The effect is in law large budget solidly. A doubling in private prison capacity leads to an increase of twenty three days in felony sentence. Yes, but it's like
across the board. It just sort of gets harsher and they say this is because private prisons do in fact save money as they promise, and so therefore, people use the savings they. They plowed the savings back into additional public services with lit, namely imprisoning people in those private prison, but like every was imprisons right. You just say this is a straightforward. It work story right like we privatized the bus company, and then we were able to make the buses where more frequently right. Here but this is like we're broke. Does the presidency, when we get there, are people in jail longer railing literally the way they put this in the paper is that prison privatisation does not decrease the average cost of incarceration, but it does Greece, the marginal cost, which is as a cost less to put a single person in prison, and but Look at the overall spending! It does not change. I think the Enow Matt, I think, you're correct to put this in the framework of the debate about like
What ways do private prisons increase it increase or exacerbate mass incarceration, but lake? I won specific about the mechanisms, because the authors make it very clear. This study is not intended to shed light on the primary mechanism. The gets cited for you I'll private prisons, increase mass incarceration just like General talking point is well: private prisons create You know, like are a lobby that can lobby state legislators to pass harsh state laws so that more people are put in prison for longer. The way that they do their data and this isn't a deliberate lake. They they were trying to avoid that question. It's just like the way. do their data to make sure that their not you know getting miss I'd by like changes in crime rates. example, makes it impossible to look at the facts. The changes in state laws have been so instead, what they're? Talking about his kind of this like marginal cost dislike? You know, cause constraints.
Which is not as commonly cited as a reason that private persons would increase mass incarceration, not least because, like the left case against private prisons, is that it is a perverse incentive, not that it's actually like, sir, It's not a it's an argument of oh, it's bad to incarcerate people more cheaply. It's an argument of its bad to create actors in the system who are trying to preserve the system, The lake, whether or not this is evidence for the effects of private prisons. On mass incarceration being lake, understated by the new kind of smart consensus depends on what you were saying that the private prisons did to begin with The other thing that's kind of worth noting here, is that the dew pale innovate in in identifying Hoskins strain as the mechanism, there also saying this isn't just a question of judges who are elected member states trying to get the crop trying
whenever the private prison industry. For years now- and I can learn about judicial capture because I think there's been a couple of specific cases in which judges wortley you working with boot, can't programmes and like basically sending kids to those programmes, because those programmes then sent the judges money. This is not what had is appearing to be happening here. This appears to be less about your a implicit quid pro quo and more about cost savings and efficiency. But a fish lay putting people, is not necessarily been a quid pro quo. It's like, we know that their there is a very, very extensive body of research on would like effects on judges sentences and it's kind of weird because, like oh, the extent to which
this is our even discretionary can be a little bit overstated by this literature, because there is a very important factor which is what crimes the judge is assessing a sentence for which is determined by prosecutors and usually the result of plea deals. But everything some like whether the judge has had lunch already you at whether the judges preferred baseball team lion or something like that, like There's a lot of evidence that the way that judges decide how harshly to someone is not totally actuarial thing. So a kind of makes sense that this might exist. in an amendment sort of way right, leg, judges,. That when they know that message that when they know that incarceration is cheaper, are more likely to be like yeah, whatever will tax and extra time under the sentence, whereas judges who are teens, who are aware that it's going to cost a lot of money to put this person in then maybe like. Do I really need to make this a seventy? Five dissidents and generous sixty days ends
I think this to me. You know I've always had some questions about the the kind of coalition politics with the right. I'm crime kind of foe and the sort of cost saving imperative that drive in some de incarceration interests in the conservative moving I mean I don't know I mean this. Is it showed that that's bad exactly, but it's it's just a reminder that the cost saving impulse. Can go in a lot of different directions. Right, like most states, I think, have a significant broom to engage in further privatisation of their prison operations and if you conducted those privatizations without increasing sentence length. It looks like you could save a fair amount of money right that, like you actually could privatized prisons keep sentences.
Molly Harsh plowed, the savings into tax cuts, rather than into longer prison sentences, and deliver exactly the right on crime win right. That is being promised he a right which is to generate extra fiscal capacity yet whereas, if you are like a bleeding heart liberal, who is sad about people being imprisoned in harsh conditions for very long periods like that looks like a really poor kind of deal to you right, and it's always just I mean I don't know Dixon hard, you gotta, make coalitions right, get a fine issues where you find them, but it's two measures is, among other things, a reminder that, like to the extent that your objection to this gale and severity of prison sensing, the United States, is not genuine fiscal in nature, like you might want to make sure that you're not exclusively for grounding fiscal arguments about
because there are a number of different wrecked their ways to cut costs. I would also argue that the right on crime strategy and kind of how Americans for prosperity has process that has also been part of why they focused a lot on recidivism and as a also a cost, saving mechanism there. I would note that you, when run and crime and a cup of other organisations talk about the successes they hadn't conserve, restates a lot of that has had to do with cost savings for the fact that public put your non private prisons are more expensive, and so a lot of those prisons have closed area. Go there saving money, but I think that that's a really worthwhile point, but I would also say that I think the complexities of
Well, justice reform cannot be reduced to anyone metric, namely an ethic that the argument. Yet we see this a lot when people talk about the war on drugs like the war on drugs is expensive and like will yes, lots of things are expensive, but the wheel of the problems with the war on drugs are the number one issue is not the expensive it. The number one issue that is at its ill blatantly a constitutional, but I think that this is another issue and another case in which new you see how private prisons they save money. The issue was: what are they working to do yet I mean I definitely I think there is that of employment is worth while, not least because there is indifferent at best research. That is some by the others of this paper, on the relationship between private prisons in recidivism, but also because, frankly, what that means is that the lowest hanging, fruit and criminal justice reform stuff can often be spending money like
first step act, for example, which is like the lowest of all possible low hanging, fruits no offense to Jared Kirshner. I, what a lot of what it did was like provide for programming in the hopes of reducing recidivism later on and lake. That is the kind thing where, if you're just thinking about fiscal responsibility in a narrow sense, it is unlikely that you would get Republicans to sign onto it, but One of the genius of the right on crime strategy has been to get people to think a little bit more broadly about ok, what's but even more expensive than putting somebody in a public prison rather than a private prison, putting somebody in and twice and getting them to be willing to spend a little bit money on some stuff, rather than a lot more money down their way. Where I wait, I mean like the object. if they makes everybody happy ultimately, is you have people not committee new crimes than not getting arrested, not being we incarcerated, and it's like win win win?
when you have this paper, just highlights that some of these areas pose different kinds of tradeoffs right that, like the prison privatisation, it works right like in a narrow sense, swayed in the sense that you would claim for privatisation in any other free reign of human activity, It saves you money and doesn't need to just be like a miserly thing like you can you can plowed the savings into more incarceration if you are and incarceration enthusiast right off Scales were great or you can cut the prison budget without letting any people out of jail right. It's like you, have all these kinds of options available to you by founded arising out of the imprisoned man so much fun, optimization
if any of you and if you ever need. If you shake your head at that, like Jane, is like that, the case needs to be made on some other grounds that it's just like it's back to have so many people in prison for so long. Fortunately, there is lots of ground. Make their case. I've never heard of it. actually like. I word, the dataset that they used, you're kind of is, is worth calling out because they ended up getting thirteen states to send them pretty detailed data sets of when and where prisons opened and closed and whether they were public and private and the years for which they have that data very pretty substantially by state to state, and so they didn't get into this in the paper but like I would definite, love to see a bunch of these are in all the states they worked with, are concentrated in the south in the Pacific Northwest A lot of those southern states are states that have passed criminal justice reform bills in the last decade, and I would love to see
either this data can be used to talk a little bit about the effects of state laws in wonder nor the other, and I think that in general we really should be seeing the point when not just kind of the year on year. Crime trends stuff but like more robust academic work is happening regarding first wave of criminal justice reform which, as you know, in a lot of states like over ten years old at this point, indeed, AIDS eyes out several questions, weeds, vocs outcome. We will aim to answer them or find this personally ask about. You know really anything ask us anything. That is the name of the game enjoyed vacation. Dora thanks to everybody for listening. Ethics is always for producer to forego the weeds. return on Friday, the cut is applied cast from New York magazine, but it's much more than that, its thirty minutes a week,
we really wrestle with ourselves we're talking society, expectations race sex career ambitions and our bodies. I just spend our time on Instagram. King at health at any size, nutritionist, take talks and You know the final I've, I'm a factor on the internet. They just come to me baby. The algorithm we're having conversations you'd only have with your most trusted friend, so Gabby. What were the most painful memories I'm just regular, listen to the cut on Spotify Apple or your favorite podcast app,
Transcript generated on 2021-09-10.