Sarah, Ezra, and Matt debate Mike Pence's puzzling performance at the vice presidential debate and highlight new research on the surprising link between college football and prison sentences.
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
This we support, is also sponsored by Nature box, good nature, backstop com, slash weeds for fifty percent off your first order. The following podcast contains explicit language. When somebody tells my pants, he is Donald Trump. Vice president, like he's getting shocked, low, welcome to another episode of the weeds boxes, policy, Pakistan, Panoply Network and Matthew Glaziers out with me, as my colleague said, cliff and a journey
from New York is is the daily shows as recline
the daily showers doses,
wise everything in New York so far from everything else in New York Cunning today, as it is a big gap,
large happy always things were close together would be small.
Shows good. It is very very funny so last night's was on the Danish after BP debate. You can find it on the entire web and right before,
I came on. They did one of their man on the street skits and the point of others
it's getting literally basically lasting the corresponding said ways.
disguised all these experts as people on the street, because it nobody quote, wanted to listen a boring, nerds talk. Then, as I break now
a boring nerd, don't like you showed has now. I think this shows sequenced unusually. So
Yet we are you are you are on that the comedy central to discuss the vice presidential debate that by was and by the way and are no longer in any presidential campaign
I know the subway are trying to do here, but if you aren't, they also show this
Trevor Noah Interview on my other podcast is good screeches
natural to babies? Although therefore of aid it was, I thought
a strange debate to watch me.
Has TIM Kane. Clearly what
and with a game plan of trying to make my pants, defend, specific,
things Donald Trump has said or done over the past eighteen months that were strange or offensive
MIKE Pence. Just didn't do it, he was, he was very well prepared. He was very disciplined. He was very you know like.
all the something like teach you in a media training to do just fine, just talk about what you want to talk about and like MIKE Pens does not want to talk about.
Elisa Machado or whether vote
Putin is amazing, or you know it
Germany, Mexicans, racists or Donald Trump tax returns, and so he just he just didn't write, and any was I mean I think you know.
well we'll have to see how that sort of plays out, but he was
a window into an interesting alternate reality in which
this did not separate himself from Donald trumps campaign themes entirely. You know he he sort of he hit. Democrats from you know being in.
Please see he hit on on law and order themes. He gave a sort of
thinking man's version of the deportation force concept, but it was complete,
divorced from the kind of wild antics that we have come to associate with with the Donald Trump Show, and it seemed to me,
was probably all things considered, not an evening. That would worry Hillary Clinton campaign, but that should make people. I don't know
take a little bit more more seriously and sort of the the idea
of an enduring
I hesitate to associate Donald Trump with policy exactly, but that, but did there. There is a wreck
nice, a core there that in the hands of a more disciplined, more professional politician, Brooks, looks pretty good and an effective and celebrate.
I think this picks up. One of the large ideas of the debate. I think we're talking before, for we ve known
an arid and physical weeds debate like there wasn't a lot of policy, but I think we
kind of draw out from it is clear what this means for the future of Europe
look and Party DORA Land. One of our partners wrote a really great peace
overnight about Trump ISM after Trump anything
the one hand, there's this expectation knew if you do have a Donald Trump laws that there's
Hand, wringing, there's a lot of what do we do or in such disarray
maybe there isn't like. Maybe what we saw last night is kind of you see a larger scale version of that, where you kind of Jones
acknowledge these things that have happened? You, like you, have the running mate for Trent, but not acknowledging the things you saying when TIM Kane brings them up here.
kind of moves on, like mad said that you do and media training, where they kind of teacher to say yes, but the important thing is acts, and then you just like
literally move under toy different subject. It makes me
Stan better? How you could see a version of it
happening on a larger scale after the election and, like mats said not moving away from some of the ideas.
Is generated because, obviously there's a large part of the population that is meal. May his message, appeals to that is entered
is by him in and they don't disappear after the election
it makes it easier to see how this becomes not this like moment of of pay,
and what do we do now in disarray budgets
and of moving on in a quiet way? If you have literally the guy
was running on its ticket already doing the same thing. Let me make a contrary argument here. I think I used to be
believer in post, Trump Trump ISM and I've become less and less have wanna. As Times gun. I think bike. Pens is actually a really good way to explore the different facets of this. So
There is no doubt that there is a message strategy. The could did succeed, Donald Trump, you can very much imagine a politician who took all trump
immigration is nationalism traditional Zahm racial
serve at his white resentment that their there are things you can put together with a more skilled, genteel politician and, as my prince did last night, you can,
sound a little bit more normal international stage, but is actually, I think worth looking at
Mike Pence is and why that wouldn't happen. Why MAC Punts wouldn't run that campaign if he ran in two thousand and twenty MIKE Pence is a candidate who is extremely clear,
to the cop brothers, which I dont mean any conspiratorial way. I think which which folks often talk about, but the cook by this do have policy positions
and their policy positions their original donors to that the kittens dude tend ever allowed
recurring theme to them, their reasonably
migration they're, pretty pro criminal justice or form, whereas what like
as having to do last night anomaly. Trumps ticket was
extremely restrictions on immigration was be extremely traditionalist on law and order issues. He went on what might have been an effective, but was it.
Three fallacious and affirm the carbon party very old school ref on law and order are suggesting impulses, bias wasn't a real thing, and- and this is what I think
boasting about trying to think about Trump ISM after Trump there. It is not the case had before
no trouble. We did not know that there might be a constituency in their public and party for
a policy platform. The committee
and a sort of can sort of anti trade economic,
populism with a sigh
conservatism and racial, traditional ism? I don't really know to say that kindly, but the recent p
I didn't do it the reason it never worked. The reason and- and I would really use him as a counter exam loosen MIKE huckabee- did not become the Republican, not many in two thousand and eight or two thousand and twelve or two thousand, and sixteen is because
really are things at the party does for you?
in terms of directing money,
or do you and him to sending signals to the media about who should get coverage, inertia,
making, sure your heart and what Donald
was able to do a short circuit, those things he was able by
and of his own money, which he ultimate relating to spend, but in meant he could. He was able by his
celebrity by his ship,
business and skill in securing media attention. He was able to evade the normal
is a party shut down an argument. It doesn't want to have an
what I think is sort of interesting when you think about this is yes, I think,
Pens showed why more skilled politician could do could run on a trumpet campaign.
Also, they might princes career who is close to how he's risen up and republican politics should sort of white wouldn't happen, because you,
but lose the sources of institutional support it created in
bring him in the first place the scene. I feel like the these sort of post,
nomination. Wrapping Donald Trump, though, has
shown that there is more possibility of doing that and you're giving credit for a right that at one point, Donald Trump was talking about raising
taxes on the rich right, which we know is an overwhelmingly popular idea- and we know that Donald Trump dropped immediately right
and I think, the reason Donald Trump drop, that is, that the Republican Party, but Dorothy
there is no way Paul Ryan would endorse someone who wanted to raise taxes on wealthy. But I think we ve
that, like Republicans, have all lined up behind Trump on trade trump on crime from buddy immigration, and I think that, like
of what my pen was showing. It was a proof of concept that
professionalized, NEO Trump ism looks good and
Tromp has shown us that you know it
True that the cope brothers and some Republicans who they work with wanted to field test. This idea of a more libertarian ash workable
and party, but I think we ve seen the Republicans are open to going in. That.
Frumpy or direction that, like the core commitments on taxes on environmental regulation on abortion on gun rights, you know are or what they really really care.
And that there is flexibility for people to take to be criminals,
this reformers, but also to be lawn order. Tides right, That'S-
in the zone of flexibility, and I think that we are seeing that you know there was
A stab read like a ran Paul, I might pence, was even part of this idea that you know small government should should incorporate criminal
this reform ideas, but I think I think,
ethically we're seeing that doesn't work. I mean it doesn't work with republican base. It maybe doesn't work with the voters and also the Democrats. You know, particularly as broken
I personally steps of the stage
is more and more pressure on White Democrats,
you acknowledge and embrace
concerns of non white Americans in a way that creates political vulnerabilities. I think it's true that
had MIKE Pence ran on this agenda in twenty six tee in that the
situational forces and the Republican Party. But if sidelined him proud that my pencil is so great, but if so
Republican, you have always we grant the same your mouth. Is
Now. I have never believed that my pencil
I have always believed that might pence is well network with the different can
did. You in season has a good pulse, unlike where republicans are and Ipods, and I think that you know, I think that
he won't? You know I actually go on. I have
for years that the smart thing for Republicans to do would be to nominate one of these politically successful bland, MID West
governors who they are constantly electing because plan.
Westerners are unimportant swing group in general elections, and they never seem to want to do that because they so boring, but they should. They should tried at some point but
all I'm saying is. I think I think that the the
ass is one thing right that, like it took a Donald Trump to put Trump, is on the agenda.
but now that we ve seen what worked from it and what didn't work from it, I feel, like Republicans, will be much more open to the
of you know what there was some some stuff here: the Goddess votes. There was some stuff here that people liked there were some software that people you know that was to these are, but that like, if we can incorporate this into, you, know our professional politics in a week
we could get some yeah and took the rationing. You were saying: Azra, USA, India, that kind of new these people are out there, and I I guess I disagree a little bet that
think. We knew the people who support these types of ideas
turn as big as numbers as we did in tell
came along and you're going back to like the Huckabee example, I think there
the case of someone who support some of these ideas, but that is in doing it
the way. The way the trump peasants
like you said that is not the entertainers. Not the celebrity is not
You can have well known person who can get those people out of the woodwork and kind of buck institutions
and it seems like almost like a flood gate open.
being in a way, is how I think about it,
yes like Mount was saying, I don't think this could have worked for Huckabee intrinsic
like you could not have shown up at the Trump message and delivered it, but now that it's
they're like now it's out there in the ether. Now that you have institute
in, seeing that it appeals
He boy anything we have learned about can believes that
We didn't know we're out there and as a strong away as large as away as we did with previous elections.
It makes me more more boy
then you are I'm kind of future of trumpets Trump ISM without Trump that it could convey
you- because you have this proof-
do you kind of needed that bombastic character wants to get it out there?
mobilise these people. And that puts it
the radar in a way that it hasn't been in previous elections and possibly makes it more more acceptable to these kind of
Stab wished elite types going forward. I think one reason is
we knew there were out, there is, if I think, of trump very much as a descendant of the Pat Buchanan Ross pro style of politics that began in
and instead of insurgency within their public and party, that was unexpectedly potent and then rasper, obviously being a third party candidate, but both of us
showing that there there really did seem to be a group of you know: White
Middle did down scale of voters who were
less economically conservative in the Republican Party, but a lot, but the very traditional, very sceptical immigration, very sceptical of foreign trade and foreign tangle mints. I actually
in some ways an important part of trumps appeal. That Healy says he was against Iraq war. Obviously he wasn't, but it is.
Useful line for him in signalling to this group of people and what we see as the furlong,
and in the European far right. So I don't know the.
I think it's hard to do right now in the heat of a campaign that- and I certainly shouldn't admit this about myself- is it's a very hard to project forward to how parties are going to feel after the hour,
so obviously maybe Donald Trump wines and then the whole job ISM is definitely a thing, but it might be that with Tina
turn out is overwhelming and it is like it
When does it went by four point? Two invite nine points, and
and by nine points on the backs of downstairs.
What is actually not coming out, but non white voters being terrified
I welcome the commitment of very large numbers and- and I think of how the Republican Party reads- those results wherever they may
assuming they lose, it will really drive the question of what struck go now. Obviously, they cannot do what they tried to do after twenty twelve and become much more cosmopolitan.
develop, bug a whole new immigration reform plan. By
I am, I am sceptical that they will go in a sort of trumpets direction if the you are
out of this is that it gave the country a third straight democratic term, actually bring.
something, though, that it is all but I've topic and, and obviously somebody else wants to to champion on the the neutral
and they should. But I thought from a weedy perspective at the beginning of it
It was kind of interesting and unusual. It was a very good debate for the committee for responsible federal budget.
which probably the most liberal tax. They ve ever got an yea President Zuma legal acts of eight, and it was just we're
It actually to hear it in this context and that it is also of framing point here that there are a lot of
strange structures on regional court and objective political journalism, and one of the strange things about it. Isn't there a bunch of positions and if you held them, you would be
is biased, like single payer is good or cut,
access umbrage. People is good either. One of those would be you know you taking aside, but the
session, elite journals are allowed to hold without it being read as any kind of favouritism towards anybody is it that is bad, that the bat that the budget should be balanced or blacklist bounce immediately.
And- and you saw that in this debate, were the first couple of questions is totally bizarrely were
about the moderator came out and said in reference to Sierra
analysis of the trauma clinic campaigns that tax plan to choose from bad
brilliants to the national debt and including its billions, but suggested
either one of themselves a national debt, but one which had quite openly weird thing to want to solve right now. She
didn't phrase it that way right. It was that both raise the debt when there is a huge issue magnitude, it wasn't huge, so I think I'm there see if our basis, if only for those who don't know too, I think I think tank here in DC. That is generally very aunt. I tat, I think, is a fair way
to dismiss suddenly long term measure, and they wanted to him. Did they bear their pro short term stimulus when you need it, but they are like their. Their reason to live is that we should lower long term entitlement debt from long term entitled right. I mean
responsible means less guess enter. Their report has found that the Clinton Clinton's proposals would raise the debt by two
two billion over the next decade, trumps proposals would raise it by five.
when three trillion Clayton organiser of men,
Do we have a great cartoon, explain or up on vocs by eleven chain? Ching? That explains all of this, but
with such an odd false equivalence too, like I think of us being like wonky budget nerds, were like what,
is this like they are so different and how they will change the budget. I think,
from your point about wisest
up. Did nor those also very odd,
the two as equivalent, because they are both in this bucket of raising the
that they all of a sudden became like the same time
is planned to make the same problems. The Danish is not a problem
but I mean what, however much I think. Madam president, it's just we're not
sing. High interest rates are not facing any problems associated with the dead and and and then the next question was about. So
security shortfalls decades in the future and have just given,
there are real economic problems the country faces. I mean just that the same Fucking Day Bill Clinton, result
King Obama care in a really weird way, and it just so bizarre to see the vice presidential debate focus on these things it that
the ages, I can't imagine who is the voter or who is
anybody out there who is I lit like these- are the issues at the front of their minor, and I think it is to clarify the point right I mean I think we understand, as media people right
that? Not only are there affirmative statements you can make that sort of in coal
would an ideological slant, but the questions that you ass can also do that right. If you had a debate which was focused
on the question of what are you going to do to ensure that women have access to safe contraceptives? What are you going to do
reduce carbon dioxide emissions. What are you going?
to do to reduce the incidence of poverty among people who already have full time. Jobs right now would be putting a very left tilt on the dialogue because part of what is like constitutive of liberal politics in the United
AIDS is to say that those things are problem right, whereas if
Ask questions about like what are you going
to do to make it easier for small businesses to file their taxes in a legal and efficient way? What are you gonna do to protect
The rights of american sportsmen to obtain firearms right now be putting a conservative slant on it, but the Bali
seems to be among the lot of reporters that simply
finding high levels of government borrowing as a problem is
non slant right in the way.
If you ask what are you gonna do to make the economy grow faster? I think both parties would claim would say like that is an important problem right there isn't you could
a political party that was like a limits to growth movement, but we don't have one right, and so it's
just like it's not obvious that that the dead each
He doesn't go without saying or argument that having the government borrow money
is bad. I don't think it's a bad there's a vow, Greece.
lay for Alexander Hamilton and, unlike one of his
Policy initiatives was that he wanted to create a national debt write. You
wasn't dead, he couldn't make the revenue and the spending line up right, or he made some kind of mistake that he wanted it to be the case
a savings vehicle existed. That was guaranteed by the full faith in credit of the United States government because he thought I think correctly, that it would be healthier to create a nest.
our economy that had this kind of safe savings, vehicle and investment vehicle that investing
The economic actors in the integrity of the federal government and, of course there were people who who thought he was wrong about that. But I mean it's like a real idea. Like should
government carry a large that load or or shouldn't debt, and to just do question
that assume it shouldn't is strange and then, if you're going to harp on it, a Sarah was saying it's weird to come, so poorly armed with actual information about the candidates budget proposals. If you're anything like me, you know, sometimes you want a snack end if what's allowed snack on his junk food, you gonna eat junk food, and it's it's not great. So if you want to live a healthier life, you could start snacking healthier with nature box. It makes knacks that actually take great and their better for you agreed with high quality ingredients that are free from artificial colors flavors of sweeteners. You can feel ok about snacking. I like some their dried fruit stuff. They got great apples are great pairs. They also have some in a slightly more indulgent, principally things and there that that I also article four and they recently made their service even better. You can order as much as you want, as often as you want with no minimum perched required anythin cancelling anytime I, so it's really simple you than a nature box, dot com. You check out their snap catalogue.
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slash me, there was something that struck me:
fascinating in the way that both neither care was actually prepared for this and
I think one reason their worn prepared for it, it's really interesting just how much this is changing twenty twelve and twenty twelve the dead.
and is only forty years ago, wasn't that long. But it was
the issue I mean the horses and Paul Ryan is on the ticket. Was that he's
good for now. I dont think his plan achieved this, but he stood for the republican idea that debt
was the looming problem.
the country that guy doing Massive
The government services to do anything about it and in woman does
reflecting on watching that we just how
far and how fast the Republican Party has travelled on that question and in four years Donald Trump has a plan.
That is the most irresponsible tax got plan. I think probably ever put to paper and the Republican Party. It is an extraordinary thing to read. I think, speaking of the Committee for Response
federal budget. I think my golden give me a call it sometimes some vague, it's not even lake in the universe of the realistic, but it isn't
Bees and half of all income tax revenue would disappear, but but
and even that they're, just not trying to define things they would caught. They don't talk even really vaguely about things. They would cut their just now
concerned with debt as a as a problem, Donald Trump, when asked about things, excesses, Gurney mad care, he will tend to save it.
who does make the economy grows so quickly that these cuts will not
necessary and, by the same token, the clinic campaign destructive pay for everything and and we'll talk about you know, do you know fiscally sponsible plan, but it's really not where their focused either an end. This does briefly objective reality of at least shorter,
at coming down a bit of last couple of years
It was just a little bit fastening. You watch questions question that felt like a rose from twenty twelve put into the twenties.
Election and adjust looked very strange, but I thought I think it was a real failing on TIM Keynes part here,
when, when he got that question insurer throughout the debate where, when it became clear that
was sort of pivoting away from from Donald Trump.
The two key- and it seemed to me did not do-
thing to like exploit Kate to a viewer. What the policy stakes in the election were,
You know at where's my pants, I mean I don't particularly agree with his framing, but that sort of part of the problem you know get tee. My pants put it
Lord of Standard, normal conservative gloss on things that you know, Clinton stands for big
axes and big government and we're gonna get the economy moving again and care
and did not do anything to highlight the idea that if Donald Trump becomes president, not just wacky trump tweets,
going to happen, but, like everyone is gonna, lose their health insurance lots of poor kid.
They're, not going to get food assistance. Yet you know
there's gonna, be enormous. Tax cuts for rich people,
It's that have been made to curb carbon dioxide pollution are going to go away right this this kind of stuff, that, to the extent that might pence like wants to talk
policy with a conservative frame. You would think Democrats would want it put back in and discuss policy. You know in in there
aggressive frame and summer that speaks to kind of overall campaign strategy of the of the Clinton King campaign, but part of it, I think, is that TIM Kay
is a guy? Who is clear that the Democrats really really like him he's been promoted very rapidly?
a whole series of jobs was d and see. Chair has been put on. The ticket is, as vice President
but he's. Never in that time been
like a hugely effective public communicator
when he was Dnc chair. He wasn't like on television
constantly crushing it, as I get top Barack Obama, surrogate and
Clinton is someone who has similar. I would say strengths as
as a politician is someone who the people she works with
really enthusiastic about whose very broadly knowledgeable, who is widely respected by people who are in the game? But who is not a great sort of vat?
or a narrator of of what it is she is about, and it it struck me that,
looking looking at a world as as Obama, you know steps off of the stage. If we have a clear, Kane administered,
and that we are going to have you know.
Credit. Ministration that is is led by people who are not very
strong at presenting a sort of cars
size coherent. This is what we are trying to do
like this is how we, how we think of the world kind of thing- and
you know I don't know how much that
matters exactly, although, as as a writer, I always find it a little of disturbing that Hillary Clinton doesn't seem to be able to like convey like this is. My point
when she's. What are you saying? Thank you? May I guess
going either way we're cruising with a future,
I would invite it's a little hard to predict what the future looks
peggotty, one version of a world where this kind reminds me of hazards profiles. Hilary about seems like
Cain assemblies impress people like that
like him: the people who work with them like him, like that, and you can see that
not a great skill for running for vice presidents,
no, I wasn't skill those on display last night, but could be a quite effective skill for governing, for when you
to talk to legislators when you have a lot of the work you are doing is with kind of a smaller group of people, the kind of legislators you
with the lobbyists. The White House staff that the ability to bid
could be a quite important skill in one.
You don't get to show off in a campaign setting that there's no good way to show off this scale.
building the small set relationships when what you're too in trying to do in a campaign as whew a very large
voters in the Midlands and then you could see
kind of the other side of it, where, if you have these kind of uninspiring speeches, where I think you Obama, with this,
the union's with ASEAN be large.
addresses, a really was bringing people along with
to real action. He was kind of creating this group of people of Kuwait
and about his presidency. I don't. I don't really know what. What
happens when that's missing and it feels very much like a traitor.
like everyone has their set of skills. Obama has been offend here.
The corridor. I I'm curious and interested to see
where this other services-
This goes one other thing. You know what out about Keynes performance last night, it did seem like he came and looked at a very clear idea like I have these lines, I'm way
deliver them and like. That is what I M going to do. Nothing about pencil change it and
these men, panda little bed for sticking to its strategy when clearly pants came in with a totally other game.
emails and see it from his side where they have all these clips. Now of pet saying you know, he didn't say that for things like Trump definitely said things pence definitely said that I think will be
and out in some kind of ad format,
Clearly so I think there was there was a method to what he was
ring that was not useless in the way that I think it's it's been framed in a lot of writing that I've seen being vice president often is it actually greatly becomes superpower
traditionally the vice president roles and attacked our role and that doesn't it being the attack dog it. It doesn't really make
well liked, and, and king came in it did the last night. You know you can, you can argue,
stylistic things, I think he, u, no other people could have maybe been a more effective.
Dog pincers had a very comfortable demeanor on tv, but
really was a case that you know him
went out. There ended with the local camping needed him to do, and migrants came
there and did something that actually created at this point a day of extremely bad headlines for the Donald Trump campaign he managed to win in a way that was a loss for his campaign, because all
anybody is talking about is the way his
form its showed how difficult Donald Trump actually is to defend. So you know it hid
how you score this debate depends on what perspective your scoring
from maybe looking which campaign one, I think it's by the Hillary Clinton campaign every looking which
petition wanted it. It's my pants, but a little bit too mats point
looking at how any of these folks will govern. I think there are two things that are interesting here
is it the hurricane in tempting
do seem to share a kind of personal characteristic set what there
bad? The way they have risen in politics who they ve impressed, how they ve impressive? I'm. Actually, I think it's very telling the TIM
it's actually on health contents ticket because in two thousand,
Kane was, I believe, the third step
wide non Illinois politician to endorse Barack Obama and
harassment of a popular suffer
governor when at that point,
that early in the campaign all day her contained in a really had a lock on the establishment of the Democratic Party. It was a big feathering Obama's cap
and a real blow to Clinton and somehow, over the ensuing eight years, Kane got so in the Clinton's good graces that initial, it's because two of article, two betrayal but
initial blow was forgotten,
forgive in such a level that that he actually ended up on the ticket, so there's something, but the two of them
They are really really really good at making piece of former enemies. They are really gotta. Do this kind of inside again and
and you can see how they would govern very much as a unit we.
Already begun. Hearing reports from John Harwood, as can be seen in your times from John King of CNN, that Donald Trump him
help us not happy if, like benzes performance, that might Donald Trump watch that and he felt my principles in defending him enough. He doesn't like hearing that might pence did better than him
he doesn't like hearing the MIKE Pence did better than him by throwing him under the bus. One
thing to see is a trump blows, his staff.
In the next coming days is a way to regain control the spotlight, but in
or direct way, it's very likely from
from the initial reporting on reading interest from what we seem to know about Donald Trump, that might pence actually hurt his influence in a chunk campaign. Be yesterday,
they had far from the truth is a guy who likes discern himself with real sycophants, sick oil lists, and while my pants Reno
went out there in an and did a good job. You know on a sort of like a
pencil level he shouldn't of two may not be as much
the sick of fun and the US as a Rudy, Giuliani or Chris Christie who defend or new king, would have it,
literally any bad ship thing. Donald Trump says
and so I think that if you are actually were pumpkin who likes my pants watching that in a way that it's a little
a bad night for you, because even if Donald Trump does
when we hope that my pencil be the guy really whispering in his ear and leading
to a more orthodox conservatism probably became that much
slightly last night, already Trump had not been leaning on pence very much, and this is like
only widen the divide between two men, who are already very, very different in their added.
Demeanor personalities and tendencies and are now going to be a little bit more separated by some mixture of jealousy
and in that kind of speaks like we are talking about. Like a king Clinton, Clinton, Kane White House, I got a Trump pence. One would look like I remember. There's a quote those their gating am from Kazakh a few months back about how the Trump campaign told them. You know you could have dominion,
in foreign policy and a kind of like gave rise.
the idea that a trumpet just be like this figure had he just wants to
in the White House? He doesn't want actually do the work of governing its.
I gotta get your saying as you are, that there isn't much space for someone there's a much space for inflows
There is not much space for the person who may
in charge of like domestic
foreign policy to actually be running. The show there
seems like a less plausible version of a tree,
Administration than I think when the court was circulated,
ago aid there is Canada's, I believe, float
around that you know you don't want
do the actual work of it, that it'll just me outsourced- and I think we talked about this and the weeds,
last week at some point we talked about this. The idea that the Roll Vernon
eyes on the road for some of their parents, who has some very clear and strong beliefs on particular social issues that he is very clearly but believes on abortion on on medication.
It is. These very strong beliefs ends
it seems less and less likely that those would get much of a voice within a potential
We really saw that Russia right, which might make my pants. I mean what was fast
there was, we saw. Might pens came out with me Romney's Russia policy and
do not he sort of like tragic gaslight us about what Donald Trump Russia Policy is my pants
would not say you can go through it and like find something like pen said about Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. That is an accurate but like
beyond some specific lie. He just painted this
alternate reality in which the Trump Pence ticket has MIKE pensive Russia policy, which is broadly the same.
his bit. Romney John Mccain Russia policy even like referenced back today, do that visit
chain of russian aggression that began with the incursion into Georgia in two thousand eight, that the problem of the Obama researches been too soft unit unit
this whole thing- and he just completely ignored
Russia Policy that Donald Trump has actually articulated, and that should, I think, really disabuse Republicans of the notion that MIKE Pence will have any influence in a Trump administration, because
backward pence didn't even feel the need till I get on board with trumps Russia policy in
shows that the two of them are not discussing
the agenda or anything. It seems like on any level
or discussing, but coming two totally different yeah I mean: do you not attempting to synthesize a coherent view of things
and you can even see it in the debate. Like might pens was really prepared for the debate, and I saw there were you know the pre debate leaks said that pens had been doing debate prep since July. Now I mean I don't know if that's true, but he certainly seem well prepared. He spent a lot of
we're cursing with with Scott Walker. They said who we know is
influential get a republican person. Not someone has been involved in Donald Trump circles at all, and you can see that you know my pants.
Love, em hate him. What whatever you want to think about him is existing like in a pencil land.
that has nothing to do with what Donald Trump he's not
urging his view is to bring them particularly
alignment with trumps and certainly Trump is not changes. We used to put them in alignment with
We have a long tradition in the United States of vice presidents being completely sidelined and ineffectual and office. That tradition,
changed over the past three or four vice presidencies, but
Additionally, it's not an office that has any kind of power so unless, unless trumped up the vice president to be an effective member of the ministries in,
The president needs stood like like them and want them to be influential.
it's it's like any other sort of staff. Job
It seems like Hillary Clinton, does liked him Kane. I mean there's enough
draw calculus always with with a VP bed, but, as you are saying, as reviewed this sort of a bad personal,
three there that she seems to have like changed her.
and about it seems natural mean I don't that we know exactly what he would do, but that she wouldn't put him on the ticket unless she thought he was like a smart good person who she was.
My team at worst tromp, I mean we know he picked pants to Sir a throw a bone to congressional Republicans and Anne. She doesn't
Do you know they ve just appears to be no meeting of the mines at all the time for a paper that we care about called for by sort of a favorite, a favorite we'd subject.
so we got here, of course, a national bureau. We cannot make research paper for you by asking Erin and Nazi more milk can tell issue headed pronounces, get so apologies, but
This is a paper that looks at sentencing, but by judges who have
A juvenile defendants and
uses as its independent variable college football game outcomes, and
It shows that, when the local college football team
loses a game, sentenced
get harsher in the subsequent weak. It shows that the harshness falls disproportionately
an african american defendants and as a good busness check. It shows that the harshness impact,
concentrated in judges who are alumni of the actual local school they do it
a few more math, ear, kind of kind of checks in there and it's it's a kind of thing. We're at first
read the top line, and I was like: oh, my God
This is shocking and then, if you couldn't get yourself out of shark,
you know, and don't think about, like young black kids of riding in jail, because the college football team lost anything like ok
have a job with a workplace and some colleagues, you
Oh, that people's job performance is impacted by their mood.
No, that their mood is impacted by things that are. You know each
it wouldn't be shocking. To hear that, like
somebody, said something a little crabby at a meeting. You know and light
escort see him the day. Love
to be game the night before, like it's normal,
it's normal human nature and the paper is showing that the justice system,
depending on human beings, who have the flaws that we expect human beings to have it just has like horrifying consequences. Right I mean like this paper we are telling about before about like a pretty horrifying pay,
think about when you do actually that you don't get out of this shocking, you think about the consequences of it. I think, what's ratchet up
The horror that you're saying that these are things that happen to all of us. I live with,
very serious baseball fan and like win, the World Series was going on last year, like
I am sure there is some sort of negative effect on its work, but he's an economist and is not an end
the jails like that was probably find
like you know, maybe use like slightly less productive. Add has at his job working on economic things, but here it's like. I read about medicine alight and you see the same,
in medicine. Right, where be, I think, there's a similar, there's other kind of higher still
it's where you have doctors, who had certain
the day, for example, are, are better at their jobs, their less
please have errors. Then you know
the beginning of a day than later in the day, and that you have all these consequences. That
on a lot of our institutions. A lot of our institutions at a very big effects on other people's lives at the end of the day are used.
At the end of the day or people making decisions people deciding to their jobs in a certain way. If he's do more,
like a robot, automated
system that does not have these these human whims that we may not think about energy,
day, but are probably quite present in the world,
thus are doing, but to be more now.
on this, why I can come up with various, but why was he a
actor of having a bad day for a judge, disproportionately
Is it it out upon Non White defend it turns out? My pants was probably wrong about implicit, pious
let me give Cosette yeah like it's true that we all bear days. I'm really tired today, and I think that if people came to with a lot of questions about
I would probably shorter than I normally em but yeah
I expect initiative is a good research on doctors, but
I think, as Unusualness paper is, that you're, seeing that a generalised crabbedness is leading to racially disproportionate results, and in that
very disturbing right and I in an industry in a different way, now
I mean, maybe implicit, buys it could be other things I mean do. Do the authorised speculate on that man I mean Ivy League, don't go.
you know deep into the into the psychology of what's going on. You know I think,
have some like jargon
word that means the judges are, may be kind of a racist says something worth worth noting. As that there's a sort
Broader literature along these themes- Eddie eads- it's all a little bit narrow, but there was a city of israeli judges about about five years ago that lead to em. Listen, a funny, discover, magazine
line, justice is served, but more so after lunch. Many
It shows like sentences,
as like a function of like how honey it's been since the judge has eaten most recently and light
Hungary judges deal out here
sentences, then than ones who are just back from their from there
break. You know, and then there's there's also research that I read about how presidential
approval ratings are linked to the outcomes of NFL Games, China, which is to say that there's, like
you can read this vague. Oh, my God College Football, but I mean I think what that, with the
jerry showing is that it
general people, including when they think
policy and when they think about exercising important public
and are very bad at, like emotionally segmenting different parts of their life off from each other and the things that are clearly of relevant to the task. Actually wind up
exerting a big Andy in this case with the but the racial angle. You know a non random sort of sort of impact on this is like I m excited
automation, right like we could take this I'll know exists
like how we end up with robot judges, but like this makes the case
what's stronger for me, but you do it for, like automation, of them look surgery where you see some of the same effects. If you were mentioning the study of his really
judges. You see some of the same effects and medicine where em there's one say they had to do with when doctors were close to the end of their shift and they made very different decisions about patient care than when they're at the beginning of their shift kind of no.
at home there to get out of their and our role
its don't leave their physic. They don't have to worry about if the launcher, when there
giving their job
It is these are not places, particularly judges are not places where we think a lot about.
automation and moving to like up to robot workforce, but this at least,
Lays the colonel of the idea, in my mind, of the positive case. For that I agree on. One thing I would say on that is simply a box have a good peace this week about. Why the next thirty years of technological disruption will be harder than the last thirty and end the ponies making? Is that area
like housing and real estate, and hospitals and health care and education have turned out to be pretty difficult because it people like dealing with humans,
We don't always want raw efficiency, but I disagree with
I've been going through a six month, dental nightmare, where just my dentist,
no idea. What's going, keep bouncing back to one another does trying
operations as far as into almost at random may keeps getting fixed in getting worse, and I would really like some computer to just input my symptoms and
read me out. Something that I am confident is a best guess based on.
an analysis of the most up to date, literature on what I am presenting an eye. I do think it
You know I don't know how we are going to frame famous in different ways, but their allotted
I do not think where I think we want to interact with humans, but human error.
is a much bigger part of the programme. Then people realize
I think there are a lot of of of places in the economy where the comfort we get from.
you, no good bedside manner is really
securing how many say medical areas there are, or
how totally contingent judicial decisions are, and that
more there are alternatives, are the more there's going to be.
Economic incentive to publicize that kind of research and to talk about those kinds,
thanks, I mean jobless, cars will be another place where there was a lot big out
I, when the first person dies.
I do a mistake from a jobless car recently, but like human
driving is a completely like loony.
I think that it is amazing that
because so many people die from it and
I do think that one thing that my change in culture is it as alternatives become more viable. There is more
incentive to have these kinds of conversations
and that might change opinions a little bit on what people are willing to do with the robot
This is what they they only want to human tat. To be, therefore, the wine issue with the judges is that its anxious that their humans, rather than robots, but it said we,
chosen to make this sentencing paradigm, like deliberately very, very squishy right, I mean there's a night
yeah. How dare con evidence based sense sentencing, which says that least theoretic.
The sentences that people get should be based on some kind of us too,
de Gaulle model about you, re offending
likely ness right, that there should be a clear objective which is like
minimize crime in a sort of cost effective way in terms of personnel
jail sentences handed out, and if you
framework like that in place. You could then imagine it becoming increasingly sophisticated and turning
over two computers or robots, or something like that, but we don't have a framework like that ride, so
The degree of sentence is right. Now is like supposed to be handed out,
done some emotion laden, fuzzy assessment of like how terrible the person is, and you could
a computer? That does that, but he would almost half do in bed
same irrational prejudices that are better leading to these outcomes. Like that's what it's it's
built for these every we had. There was all this idea, you and cry about that: that's Stanford, swimmer guy and his his his way charges where I think many people felt it
like vaguely outrageous to be giving somebody s soft sentence on the grounds that he's a promising young white male athlete.
The criminal justice system is what really set up to deliver those kind of outcomes ride like it. The judges are told to make these totally fucked.
Sort of pointless, and then you end as actions. One of my good friends
immigration lawyer and she knows, are like good judges and bad judges to go in front of like some judges that will grant or case in some that won't like. She hopes that she gets assigned one of the good judges
This is a more it's a more explicit version of what this experiment is doing
it's her learning like through being an
gratian attorney that she will that some people
very different views, and I use that discussion in very different.
Is to decide the exact same Kazan that has nothing to do with football games like out in the open, like everyone in the immigration lawyer community. Like knows that this person is good in this person's badge go in front of, we don't have to go if we have to jump to robot judges and if we want
that jump to robot judges. We would need some kind of evidence, some kind of the equation that we
currently emergency, and there was no moon writing in part of the tough on crime. Politics of the of the early Ninetys was to limit judges, discretion
but he was too limited in this site. One way ratchet that, like sentences had to be had to be
longer than they had been previously, and you know there are other ways you could reduce judicial discretion, short of full automation and, conversely,
if we want the judges to have a lot of discretion, it's not clear to me what automation will get you rat. You can have twenty different, a eyes up there.
All handed out arbitrary sentences
in their own weird computer
way, which doesn't seem like much progress future ahead,
Let's do it has been of the fund
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Transcript generated on 2021-09-14.