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What’s really going on with child detention?


Dara, Jane, and Matt on the breakdown of trust that’s driving the latest crisis at the border.

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The horrifying conditions facing kids in border detention, explained

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Yo Bismarck has brought me a mph d, and this is Andrew Manga Nellie. We will introduce you to our pod cast way form the new sedition to the Vocs media Paca network. So I've spent over ten years, reviewing tech products and consumer electronics for millions of people. On the incubation to channel and now on the way forward? ass Andrew and I use that experience to dig even deeper into latest tech for smartphones too. I max to electric cars. So if you're gadget lover or attack head or if you just want to figure out whether the latest gadget is worth your harder in cash, give us a lesson say can find way form the empty beefy podcast on your favorite Pakistan. every Friday, see over their parental leave. As a great time till I agree, watch your random started. There are a couple of challenges to that plan. But we can. We can go through that at the centre of the way. It's I'm just I'm saying parental leave. That's your! Does your deep space? Nine we watch opportunity perfect. We should pod gas, let's make about guest
Hello welcomes. You know them so that the weeds on the box and media Pike has network. I met replaces here which, in coastal Kundera, lend dare, and I were on vacation last week and apparently some stuff have bag and I was. I am genuinely confuse so their children in detention in what appear to be very poor conditions and a lot of stories about at yes. And that's what right, so? What what had. So. This is not the child separation, not right right. This is the going general phenomenon of families and child groups arrive at the border? We podcast it about Many times raised recently in the tariff context. But then why would I do
How does this island and where did this story, come for white? What right so as ready consumers of policy news might be aware of their is a special legal agreement. I it's basically like think of. It is kind of analogous to a consent decree in which the judicial branches seeking an active role in overseeing the actions of the executive branch, and it's it's called the flu. this agreement and it deals specifically with the treatment of children in immigration, detention and like it, back to the nineties. In theory, it was supposed to be just placeholder for like this is something that the government should. have either a lower regulation about, and then the government didn't put together either a regulation because it had the clubs that was this agreement merrily we'll just continue to comply with Flores. That's fine. You know the Trump Administration is now trying to write that regulation, but, like that's kind of aside bar for the story as part of that, a group of kind of legal investigators,
Some lawyers from human rights advocates were doing. Some monitoring of the conditions at centres that are run by border patrol now quickly through for those who have forgotten? Nor who, like me, were in Europe for two weeks, and we think about any of this when you come into the? U s. If your crossing between ports of entry you get apprehended by border patrol, if you're a child who isn't with your parent or illegal guardian separated fer. You know there are still some parent child separations going on, but it's like seven hundred over the course of a year, as opposed to like three thousand over the course of six weeks alike. It's it's not it's not most of the kids were in custody and your then only supposed to be in border patrol custody for seventy two hours boring
extreme emergency circumstances, you're supposed to be sent to health and human services, like the logic of this, is the kids shouldn't, be an immigration detention for any longer than absolutely necessary that they need to be in the care of my child welfare professionals. So, as part of the general, like overwhelming ness of the border intake system, with the current number of families and children coming in that amount of time in custody, has just been expanding, like it's not totally clear how many kids are actually getting out of their and seventy two hours, but it's probably very few, and at any given time about two thousand kids are in the custody of border control, like in context border patrol said last month that in general they consider four thousand people in custody at any. Given time to be high- and they now have like sixteen thousand people, two thousand of whom are children, who are there without the player in separate vessel
these without parents often have come, would like ants or older, even older, siblings, and are deemed to be unaccompanied, because the law says has to be apparent illegal guardian, but that's not a great situation like that is now thing border patrol is supposed to be doing absolutely crucial. When you hear about like a two year old, like a baby yen immigration, detention guess this is now someone who has been a typical. Is it not someone who has been separated from their parents four under the previously now abandoned separation exact, but there also, I mean common sense. Is it unaccompanied to Europe are not materializing at the? U S Mexico border ass. I know nobody has really like this this as a company was more like, yet somebody has accompanied them whether that somebody has just like you, have a group of teenagers with a smuggler where or whether it's like. Actually someone who knows the child is kind of
you know. I think it is a key difference between now and what is happening in twenty four anymore. He always had a lot of what thing, though I mean just reports about really little use Do, I think its general elude the average age of kids is decreasing some but like it is important to remember that it's not like the overwhelming majority of these are and votes for. Others are pretty good spread, but leg begets. It is often the case that it's either you know an answer and uncle and they're coming, because the parents sent the kid with them they're coming, because the parents already live in the United States in there. the kid they're coming, because they are in practice the child's guardian, and they just don't have the people to prove it or and lake. This is one of the many areas where is the is the trumpet minister?
Jeanne simply not able to do the best job at can or deliberate punitive decisions being made. This is one of the things which comes into play like I have definitely heard. Lawyers expressed scepticism that in cases where people do have papers saying that they should be the legal guardian of this kid, the lake, are being treated as ok. My board of truly gents, like that is kind of one of the many small lake. What's really going on here, questions that we still have resolved silly, that's others, kids are getting into custody and ill I wouldn't say, languishing they're they're, not very indefinitely, and I think that's important to note it's just that their their longer than the floors agreements has they're supposed to be, and that raises questions about lake is Border patrol equipped to take care of these kids. So that's what this fact finding mission was about their of lake being questions about conditions of kids in border patrol and ice custody, so this timid investigators went and like under normal circumstances, over the course of litigation you'd like you'd. Do this you'd like file a report to the judge if it was particularly
reach us you'd file, some kind of motion to get the judge like stop the government from holding his in this facility. This team was so alarmed by what they saw, especially in one facility in taxes called the Clint facility that they went to the press about it. They went to the AP first and then did a bunch of mediators about essentially what they saw and Some of the story is that they have are there not at all how Any one would expect children to ITALY to be treated right. There's one sir that one of the monitors told about like at one point, there was a life outbreak and all the kids who didn't have lace were told their hair would like. There were two lace combs for the three hundred kids and the facility, and they lost one one of the last homes and, like all of the kids, were punished by the guards as collective punishment for losing alike. Lace come like it's just except the inner there weren't toothbrush is. There aren't a food people are unable to shower routinely veers it's the kind thing that is as
terrible is american prison conditions can be it's not something we associate with American prisons it certainly not something that, like any one, would associate with like treatment of children, and so the alarm around that is kind of its general it at the last few days of news coverage. Now it's important to note here that, like the government's response has been to close that particular facility down, essentially most of the kids, have been sent actually to Asia just custody. Finally, others have been sent to other border patrol facilities, but late. None of the problems that were identified worse specific to that one Still do you like it's not clear to me how you get more toothbrushes by shutting down the the facility where they noticed the lack of toothbrushes and like, in fact I've actually talked to one of the people who was on the investigating trip?
who visited one of the places where they are now sending kids out of Clinton. She's like it's not better. There are two precious there: either they still not have blankets lake. This is a systemic problem. It's just that the Trump Administration has and will you know, will see whether this is successful or not taken the obvious narrative arc of oh, if deprived people are focusing on about this facility, is we're gonna shut down this facility and sea of attention goes away, so I want to get too kind of what the political Balance has been because I think that that's been a lot of what you guys missed over a year. You may caissons, but I think that there are a lot of actual questions here, because the response that you see from conservatives organ of troops, supportive conservatives on this particular issue is ok. These facilities are bad. These facilities have one been bad since twenty fourteen, under the abandonment of
agent, which is one of the arguments DORA just might have made as a base year I mean I just like as long as I'm on my layer, these facilities didn't existent when fourteen. Is the thing right like the it's really hard to overstate the extent to which what we're seeing right now is an improvised responds to a phenomenon that is like a year or less old so, yes, there definitely work questions about facilities and twenty fourteen, but like the kind of archive ago of universe, know we're springing up. His soft cited facilities and like kids, are therefore you know days and days and days like it was the case during the very very peak of the twenty fourteen crisis, but like it was. That was a few weeks we're talking about now months. So I think the second part of question. Is that your? If the Thomas cotton and Dance Crenshaw of the world have responded by saying hey, we have this legislation that would increase funding for the
sites. Why are Democrats not or not? Does not Democrats writ large, but Lake, Alexandria, Cassio, Cortez and others of the kind of more left leaning Democrats wire? They opposed to sending funding to make these facilities presumably have more and one last come here. I one would hope rightly visit. This is happening in the context of like the administration asked for a supplemental funding package. Back in, I guess at the beginning of may be raised like we are going to run out of money at the border before the end of the fiscal year. You need to give us more money, or else like disastrous things will happen and for a while, it kind of seem like they're. Just wasn't a lot of interest in it. And, finally, I think both chambers of Congress got the message that, like the under the fiscal year is coming, like D just did get fino there,
funding. Bill came in February, but Hs hasn't been funded since September. Like that's a problem for the shelters for immigrant kids, there definitely has, momentum on this. Of course, it then I scrambled with the whole lake trump tweeting output, and for a raid and then taking them back and that's definitely complicated the politics of this but lake? You definitely do see. On the one hand, the- and I think it is a legitimate, partisan split right, like Republicans, are pushing a bill that does what the administration wants, not only on funding, but also on policy changes and fear going well. Why dont, if democratic, so worried when they come to the table and pass the spill it? We know the president sign. Meanwhile, there is an entire democratic split between the appropriate authors in leadership who are saying this is a problem that we need to solve by putting more money to improve conditions.
and a group of progressives that are saying any money we give is endorsing the idea the kids should be and attention. There is no moral way that we can collaborate with this broke it bizarre those. So it's it's a threefold Spock rides rain. When it you have Republican, saying, hey Democrats, if you want money to improve these conditions, you should also sign on for this whole raft of other policy change sprite right and then you have democratic leadership, which is saying: let's appropriate money to improve these facility is, and then you have air sea and her Mary band, who are trying to push the idea that there should be no Andy right for trial, detention, morbid discourse split the no vote, Spilett lit, we did see something similar in February Ray we're like there was a letter signed by like the vocal house progressives saying. We can't believe that we're about to pass a bill that is going to give more money to ice, to, detain people and like it did not
have trouble, passing well, ok, but so here's this is. This is like boring Congress to a friend, but ok, so there's one universe in which the Elsie objections, the stuff, like doesn't matter right, because for a bill to become law. It needs to pass the hat. House and the Senate and be signed by the Trump, so anything that is capable of passing the Senate and being and by Donald Trump, will receive plenty of republican votes, and it just for Democrats in the house right so in a happy if Nancy Policy gets her way, it would be because republicans agree to do when I suppose he wants to do and put more money into this system. In that case, it becomes a free vote. for back bench, Democrats and if they want to take a stand on principle and vote. No, that's fine that's really as he will do, but and if they don't, it's also find guiding. There's this, I got a message saying
we're like we're congressional leaders like to do in these divided control. Things is pass a bill out of the house that they control yeah and then sort of like say where we ve done our job right now. It's Mitch Mcconnell problem, and in that case, why it does matter because house Republicans aren't going to vote for a clean appropriation like like a clean humanitarian appropriation, but Democrats could pass one party line, vow right and then say we have a solution to this horrific humanitarian crisis. Now we need much Mcconnell to act on it right, but they have trouble getting that done. If left wing Democrats are saying like not one dime for child
pension. So that's like this Congress. There also is even with if there weren't any people with actual votes in Congress who are saying this is unacceptable. The distrust of the administration among the democratic base runs so deep at this point that it is very, very, very hard to argue anything, but they are deliberately do miss because very evil terrible people like if you're going to be giving more money to the system. It is. You are saying that, some of that money is going to be spent in good faith that there are like some people there who are trying to do their best by these kids. like that is really not something that people are willing to endorse. It appears to be difficult to argue. Oh, it's ok were putting legal restrictions on how this money will be spent. The distrust of the administration is going to follow the lies so deep, democratically
Should these in a legit messaging dined here, where they firmly I believe that they are doing the right thing that not giving money would be like participate, the humanitarian crisis, but in order to argue that they have to say the administration that we're saying, is putting his in these terrible conditions. We're gonna, give them more money and hope that they spend it the right way: I want to see the Brigham and dynamism the evidence we have on this. We live with a lot of noise between the pings dings the emails labelled urgent. That aren't really that urgent, it's hard to cut through the static zero on the things that really matter just like. We can train our bodies to be better running faster, lifting her we can train our minds to stay focused to all the noise. We live with step, one download head space its basis and have loaded with guiding meditations designed offer a daily dose mindfulness concessions for every situation like a three minute s away,
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Andrew Football is back and the best bet you can make is downloading the fan dual sports book app. It doesn't matter if new to gambling or an old pro fan. Dual has something for everyone and as an official sports betting partner of the NFL. You know you're, better, safe, there's also never been a better time to use. Fan do because right now, you'll get up to one thousand dollars back. If your first bet doesn't, when you can even too, the small wager into a big payday with the same game, parlay that just sign up with a promo code Spotify Place, your first bat risk free on fan. Dual sports book download fan dual today. Twenty one and present in Pennsylvania, first online real money wager only refund who does not withdrawal side credit that expires in fourteen days, restrictions apply see terms at sports booked out fan, dual dotcom gambling problem call one eight hundred gambler. Some toothbrushes are not the most important thing,
world, but did seem to me to be a telling sign post about this situation because This no national shortage of toothbrushes in America weight and go to the store the shells are full of toothbrush is, and I think it's really clear that, if Donald Trump or a secretary Mclean in or anyone else was like. Hey. We need somebody to male us, like a box of toothbrushes to this facility that, like p We do, in fact, Texas Tribune is reporting that people are by like trying to show up at facilities with like diapers and things like that and getting turned away for since that. I'm sure, like I'm sure that there are a lot of by laws that regulate right. It goes into the ITALY. So it is that this is a really really good example of this right. Like I don't know- and you know I,
kind of how to ride around it, and, if he's that's, how you gonna get published between when this tapes and when this is when this progress is released, I genuinely dont know if the problem here is the guy at the border patrols station was a dick and said we don't need your stinkin diapers and toothbrush or if it is, lake, look visit, facility in which set under which vulnerable children are held, we can't just take anything from anybody who comes a good. I want to point fingers a little bit more clearly here, right, leg, there is a reason why the government has. I got hierarchical structure with leaders at the top right and like if it is the case that President Trump and Chief of Staff Mulvaney and Secretary Magdalena in and whoever the fuck is running customs and border patrol right leg if they would like these children to have truth.
his and soap and diapers, but they are facing some kind of practical logistical impediment to that. It is their worst. Instability to communicate clearly with the public as to what the problem is simply because we know innocent, not conceivable right, that an objective deficit of toothbrushes in the United States of America is problem. Right, like I will give money people are trying to do. I've cars followed like it would be a trivial problem to get the Box of toothbrushes Admittedly, you can see all kinds of reasons why, if you just show up at a pickup truck full of what you propose to do, pressures and diapers and want to drop, offered as a cure facility? Maybe we're going to TAT may be turn you away rapid. We now would deep into this story right, We're not like ninety minutes into this confusion about it where's leg. I don't know. I also think
The converse argument is: if you were in that kind of vision. You should be doing that, like you, should be fixing the problem of having their not be toothbrushes. Not tell him not, not much use to the poverty level meaning. But if, if the problem is a funding drove read like cause there's one universe in which they are Swinton. It they're like this is bad guys like we don't have any toothbrushes. We gotta find a way to get toothbrushes. Congresses gridlock because it policy dispute, but the Good NEWS is like american civil society with like to deliver toothbrushes. So we need to figure out. there's another which this appears to me to be the world that we are right, which is that They want to use the humanitarian crisis, which is we all as leverage to get congressional. It's for policy changes, so they are not in the most cartoonish leave villainous version of this like eager to see human suffering or something like that,
as often happens in politics. They, like you, have a group that doesn't want to solve the problem. That almost everyone agrees is problematic, because it's it's a pressure points, trade and like that's why Tom Continent and Crenshaw are out there saying you should pass our bill right and if you have, add a mass mobilization. Did liver, so Ben and diapers, and you know bottles of water and and do whatever that would alleviate the pressure point. An it seems like they don't want to do the like. That's why the president who'd like speaks his mind. All the time is not saying anything about. What's going on. I think that there is a reason that their public statements are generally focused on. We can't just throw money at the problem. We need to stop the flow rate in it that is I think that in this particular case like it logically cannot be true that they were using the glint facility that they want to use the cliff facilities oppressor point because, like they were the ones, this isn't like the eye, the people being held
original Paso earlier this year. Really it was there like border before all which usually tries to stop journalists from like any input from talking to migrants were being held from any like photos. Anything like yes, please take what was like. That was something where they clearly wanted public attention to be honest about the crunch was this: wasn't that this was people like essentially going whistle blower from having this fact finding trip so like it's not you know, I. I want to make sure that people aren't lake. I think that that simple when we assess what their reaction to this lake, would be expected to be that, like they weren't trying to put it out there, I think- I really want to commit some boring bureaucratic, logistic stuff here, because I think that that's really what we're talking about right like it would be very easy for, like I think that you focused on two thrushes other people focus on. You know the like the shower stuff. Other people focus on the stories of light guards being aggressive other. We will focus on
the fact that kids are being held in detention at all, and so, if you, we're in a room with, like Carl approaches that a border patrol and Kevin Macklewain In- and you said, okay, about three precious thing maybe would get an answer to that but like that is not actually what the public discourse is about. It's about a lot of different things at once, but in so far as were kind of talking about the tooth brush the lake, the big problem that they are trying to solve at the level of care of children right now is preventing another get from diagnostic they like. They really did change intake policies after the death of Jacqueline CALL, Mccain and Philippe
Mozart, bed, Alonzo in December, and that is kind of like it is kind of widely known that that is what keeps leadership they're up at night, and so in order to do that. Yes, there is definitely a concern about like infectious diseases and lake, giving his good sanitation in that kind of thing. Billy. You can't necessarily build showers very quickly. What you can do is make sure people are on calling kids have to go to the hospital and, like I dont, have numbers on hand, but order agent, people speaking to press during various calls over the last six months. land like just how many of their agents at any given time are lake, either transiting kids to and from the hospital, or you know eating there, while kids are checked up on, unlike its very difficult, because you can't,
say. Oh I'm, sorry, you have to wait until we have three more kids, because it's not useful for us to spend one agent on one kid. We don't have a one to one agent to get ratio like you can't do that. What if it's urgent, what if the unit so on one level it is. It does itself speak to the conditions of facilities on the conditions that people are coming with, that they have to spend so much energy on this, but, like I think that there are real manpower questions of lake. I was hearing years ago from somebody who, at an adult border control facility that late, you know you have to take some one statutorily or specific someone every twenty four hours to a shower. They didn't have any showers at that facility. So, like that's one of the: u no hands, Do you have on shift who has to go drive the person to the neck society, which is an hour away. Have them take a shower and come back like the funding, nl situation here, is that border patrol is not staff furthest. Both of these, they don't have the money
power. Andy, they are trained to be law. Enforcement agencies are trained in a punitive hostile like I don't. This is pure pure pure speculation, but lake. The thing about the toothbrushes is also interesting. To make his teeth. Precious can be a controlled right item in presence here, because you can theoretically sharpen the ends of the right, and while I have literally no evidence for this, it would not surprise me if, at some point, a border patrol agent said we need to find a way to get kids teeth cleaned without giving a seventeen year olds, things that could be used as weapons against us, because that's the mentality the law in force, major right, you're, not trained as like humanitarian, social service workers and like this is kind of gravity labour management relations question of lake. We know them The border patrol union has trumps ear. If the border patrol Union thinks that they're doing spending too much time taken care of kids enough time getting bad guys Lake yet create some problems. So
Genuinely don't know. I don't think I would not be comfortable saying that they are doing everything that can be done. I simply dont know the answer that I think there are really big questions in particular about the weather, about what's happening to adults, because obviously the more resources being spent to detain adults, less resources- you haven't kids and they do appear to have made the decision that we know for kind of top. border security reasons they do not want it to be possible for a single adult to get released into the? U S pending pending deportation or single adults are often yet removed. Without hearings began it they don't that's and therefore they want to be detaining people. So you know, I think, that there really are questions about lay What is being prioritizing, what decisions are being made by if wanted to have a boring logistical conversation about? How do you get too precious to facilities? I am confident that that could happen. It's just that lake. That's not really what a lot of people who artlessness this podcast are worried about. Right. I think there,
Something to be said for that leg. I dont want to really get into the Bee terminal logical debate of lake concentration camps, but I think that that speaks to the kind of what is going on here isn't really reaction to the existing laws about how unaccompanied kids are treated like. If that were the case, we would we see a much bigger push for, for example, changing the law, so that right, be aunt was coming with the knees than like the many could stay together that kind of thing. What seeing as eight an element horror at the idea that children particular should be in government custody. When the government in question is something that is trusted so little and like right, I don't know like it is. Generally the overlap several years. The panic is a kind of oscillated multiple times from a panic that people are, the kids are getting let go to like shape. people too easily, with not enough vetting and a panic that the government is holding kids
from their families in the. U S and lake right now we're very much the right side of that where people are like there are families in the: U S: why are they just being released to them? this, is generally a hard question, it seems a much easier question. If the level of trust and government is so low that Think, basically, anybody else would be a better caretaker for these children, who, I think, a lot
the inner, I think, a lot of the free, the children rhetoric comes from the fundamental lack of trust that the administration candied is to be believed when it says it wants to take care of right, which I think is one of those moments in which were having yet we ve talked on this podcast before about how the Trump Administration and Donald Trump are often yo. Logistically two separate things and you in court there's been kind of a lot of conversation about how things trumped says should be considered when it comes to the administration, but on this particular issue there I think for most people observing it there is no separation. You know, if you have the same president who referred to YO undocumented people for Mexico come across, the border is being like rapists and murderers and then the same administration with his name on it is holding children in detention facilities. I think the benefit of the doubt is not going to.
I think I mean it's pretty easy to understand why, and I think that that that's been something that's been kind of interesting, observe a kind of have. Conservatives have been reacting to this with this level of just like your. How could you say this about our proud YO border patrol officers went for most people, its border patrol in administration, that is run by Donald troubling its difficult to make the rhetorical leap that people are making. I ain't yo. I understand that for actually fixing the problem is not helpful, but it's the one that makes sense. I'm sure thing you know if you dedicated weeds completion. What we have heard my interview with the agenda about IRAN and Dedicated reads: inflation. Is there anyone who listened to the last episode yeah it was. It was released.
Writing to me the situation she was describing in Guatemala, where, the Trump administration essentially traded away, international anti corruption effort, in exchange for Guatemala, moving its embassy from TEL Aviv to Jerusalem, which it which in turn, is a political favoured to be Netanyahu who, in turn repays political favours to Donald. as just a sign of the level of seriousness with which the the situation is being taken right. That, if I wished to characterize like what is the substantive policy issue? The Donald Trump cares most about right. it's- some balance between this migration, from Central America and bilateral trade deficit yeah right. Those seem like the two things that he cares about, but even on one of the two things that he cares about here. Traded away, something that had pretty broad consensus in the United States
as I go reasonable helpful effort in exchange for like nothing likely really like nonsense politics stuff in that is not just a stray remarks that from makes road, but the actual policy making makes it hard to credit. like the leadership of the United States of America, is sweating as they deal with a tough problem and like I will admit right there is. There is a level of double standards this, but when conservatives tell me like, oh, There were like reports of inhumane conditions when Obama was present, and and and Bob I like that. That is all true, and it is true that liberals were not as fired up back then in its true that, like I personally, was not as fired up back then, and the reason is that I thought the Obama administration was trying to wrestle with a difficult problem, and I
don't think the Trump Administration is, you know, like the devil loves. You have had this conversation and twenty fourteen, because what surprised me in twenty fourteen was just how aggressively the Obama administration in court was fighting oversight. The floor as settlement, but they lost that battle right leg they it he stands coming out of that battle, was the executive branch should not be trusted to have the best interests early or like it, whether or not it has the best interests at heart. It should not be trusted to make decisions that are going to lead to these children. Getting minimal care, and like that's kind of where we start from here, is the fact that there is an active role that the EU shall branch has taken and so like tat being the Obama and trumpet ministrations in kind of snow globes where, like you know you, they, like somebody, shape
the snow globe, and then it falls and like ok, depending on who shaking the snow but love it's gonna fall, which way. This may only makes sense. Reboots shook snow, gloves upside down to watch the snowfall up, but anyway, food like all five of us out there. It's not like there are other be not only are the can circumstances different, but like they're, already easy, more active role for other branches and so forth are arguing for that. Rule should be lessened because other administrations were also bad. Just logically is not right. Anyway, we should. We should quit and talk about how the workers lost the class war, which is how mad explained this white paper to me. The Erika I break people, often ask me of prosecuting the mob, is like the movies. Well, There is violence he cracks disguised over their head and pop. Just like a melancholy. There are heads, so wasn't just permission to take em apple permission to take out his own Natalie.
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so, the question that they're asking right is, if you look at the stock market, is gone up. A lot You know that not just like over the past two years or something, but over decades right. The value of the stock market has gone up a lot, and one reason the side market has gone up is that the economy has grown since the late nineteenth forties. But then, if you look at the time is right: it doesnt, quite atta by growth, has been slower since nineteen eighty, then it was pre. Nineteen, seventy, but the stock It has been really really well since ninety eighty and there's always men just kind of questions about label why that is right, is a lot of kind of possible reasons by the stock market could do better than the overall real economy. What they do with their complicated math and their sort of smart use of new data sources. Is they show that most of those complicated reasons are not that big of a deal that choice
There's an interest rates have played a factor that changes in search of the risk environment have played a factor, but that the majority of it has just been that. How do they tell us is a reallocation of rents to shareholders and decelerating economy, which is to say that as the I has grown more slowly? Shareholders have managed to grab a larger and larger share of the pie and they have been so successful at grabbing a larger share of by that, even though growth has slowed down, shareholders have done better in the slow growth era than they did in the fast growth era, I'm so they show that in the fast growth era, almost all of stock market appreciation. Ninety four percent was due to growth. The economy, but that the stock market overall has done better since the big slowdown because of this reallocation of rent, which is like basically like the bosses that more money and the workers
less turns out. Residents machine was just really pressure the whole time, yet they were just like for five years into this trend. Editorial unease about Afghanistan. I know that lake literally, I have asked this question on the Punkahs New. Explain it to me before, but lake can you clarify I'll bet. The relationship between lake like who owns the wealth in the stock market, because it's kind of it's one of those things that, like the financial press, will tell you that it is like it. You know that the middle class broadly speaking, which everyone literally thinks therein is in. India, has a stock portfolio and then like this appears, you are. You are strongly implying that that is not the case. I mean so to make room model work, which is very complicated as it is already you ve got like little triangle, subscript see tee, plus one well squiggly e thing in a visitors. Events are gonna say to simplify it. They posit that, like the workers and the owners are two entirely separate groups of people
obviously not true right, especially in an era where lake the correct me? If I'm wrong, but isn't that aren't stock options like one of the ways that employers have tried to lake make compensation and look like its improving, while not improve, increasing wages or put so here's the thing when it turns out that. Well, it's not literally true that workers and owners are completely distinct groups of people that ten percent The population owns eighty percent of the stock market and fifty percent of the population owns zero percent, downward it. So there is a little bit of immediate illusion in which the the fiftieth to ninetieth percent I, is a very eating. Clue, like almost every one who like rights and at its content, Roger earlier. You know so we'd like people who were affluent enough to own non zero quantity of stock, but who
When you set your household budget, you are primarily thinking about yourself, free re ready rat you not anticipating like. That David S minutes. Dividends are going to make you buy a car or something way that site It seems like normal people, because we inhabit a social sphere in which most people are like that, and but it's it's not typical. Well, like the typical person owns no or almost no stock, frank, typical shareholder is like a very wealthy person in the top I've, even as the top point o one percent
the top point, one percent, that the majority of income becomes investment income and then Haters Jemmy cause. I know this is well known paper capitalists in the twenty first century that quibbles a little bit with us, but at a set that aside so they're saying it's it's at least approximately true that a group of owners who are like you can think of it is five to ten percent of the population are getting this money and then a group of workers are are losing out, and this is especially relevant when, at the firm level, companies are making decisions based on like our making decisions about, Inter Alia, compensation based on what they think is. Gonna haven't stock price right here one. I think what really I mean these two things are really interesting about this right one. Is it water sort of textbook emodels models if the value of start goes up, that should drive a lot of extra,
The assessment and the new investment should increase employment and wages when so the long ride you shouldn't have this detachment, even though in the EU, in the short, run you bite but an along when it's all supposed to start a comeback round, but he evidently has not, background Ellie, unlike since nineteen eighty nine is like a pretty long run the is that you just really common to look at the stock market as a kind of daily referendum on economic affairs whose people always say like bar. You know lots of things can impact on prices is not exactly the same as the real economy, but this is always Question of, like you, know, nothings perfect in life, but it seems like at least a useful proxy. and what they're saying here is that over
you're a medium term durations five years ten years? It really is a useful proxy that it has been much better time for the stock market in a period of declining growth, because these sort of other factors that you could brush aside his details are actually really big deal, and I think that that something I talked it conservatives, my job in that's, been something that's been an interesting point of conflict among conservatives is that you have. The populist wing is starting to make this point of lake kind of sat sounding vaguely Elizabeth Ryan in and saying that, like, yes, the stock markets doing great. That means markedly nothing for the majority of Americans, which is a point that people have been making for a long time and its it's interesting, also because it's something you kind of heard from not from Trump and cut of the truck mill you in twenty. Sixteen, where the idea of using the stock market, as kind of
part and parcel. This is how the economy is doing was knocked down and now you're saying Trump tweeting about how like stock markets doing great era go. Everything is fine, which is, I think, it's an easy position to have, though one no one knows what makes a stock market do anything. It is very panicky, it is like a pigeon that I dont want to be near or understand, but to it, doesn't it doesnt necessary? It doesn't, as you said, impact what most people and I include the view, my parents, my family, the vast majority of people with a high school with it does not impact their lives were, and even when Lake, the stock market and even the the relationship between politics and the stock market also goes the other way right. We're like v. I think we ve seen over the last few years. Some cases where lake it looks like Trump is about to do something protectionist on trade and like the threat rise,
and the threat rises and different rises, and some market doesn't react and then all of a sudden, some incremental thing happens and a lot of people on Wall Street appear to collectively decide that this time the threat is real and there's this big sell off right. it's not exactly like the people who are making Univee the stock market, like everything else is made of people and the people making those decisions. Don't not not don't share the interests, lake of kind of Americans as a whole right, but are often making their decisions based on inputs that are just how do
I think things are going to go, not necessarily like drawing on a broader array of inputs, and so it's this weird lake. It can be hermetically sealed, yeah away. That is great if you're trying to conserve wealth in the power of the inner shareholding class and not so good if you're, seeing it as a referendum, unlike our things actually going, ok- and I think it is important to the union- you, U, revenues, the sort of like conservative, populist right discourse, because you know a question that I think is like rigour, aid through political political economy. Commentary of of all strives for years is like how real is class conflict right because there's an extent to which, obviously, if you took somebody else's money, you would have more money and there's also extend to which, like the societies, a cooperative enterprise- and we can all be better on rail freight
an trump you know who means very heavily and zero type rhetoric and as a kid He had a variety of different zero sum. Posture is right. I mean the working class versus the elite, but also Americans versus foreigners. You know Bob yet as president, he has really narrowed that focus too, like Americans versus foreigner right, and he talks about He he cheer leads for the stock market and he complained raised about the FED when it goes down in this paper. Is you know it's in case for a more classic all class politics and raise seeing the tensions between like at Tucker Karlsson style approach to this and the reality of trumps governance right chums tweets about the stock market are not like the most important things about the trumpet
duration, but I think it's a really good sign post for like how has trump in practice differed. I mean, I think it s also is interesting. Is that you, if you remember in the hat yell fat, of years ago. Early twenty seventeen when every time truck treated about a company like when Nord Stream, tat old of vodka trumps, something or another like stocks would be impacted because the people who run the stock market would see that trumps it. Something me but a company enabling, oh now, oh, and then they do and whether they ve oscillate between under sensitivity and oversensitive. Now you the Caprice of Donald Trump, a right, which I think that that if the stock market can be impacted by people reading tweets, I think that that that's that's us. It's a strange world over there I mean that's an interesting one like the impact on individual stocks way, but I mean, I think, the big the biggest come message here. I just interesting couple of stories. I saw Viet SAM Bells Twitter feed.
Where he's been sort of collecting, like full employment cheer stories. you know when they were like a couple about how, with the unemployment rate being so low like there's, a guy I who need a new manager for a sandwich shop and the guy who wanted to hire was, like you know, I'd, take care, my kids on like five days. can't work, then, and owner was like ok I'll take the Friday shift, swayed did You are now in a situation for the first time Willie in the twenty first century, where people who own businesses like successful businesses, just still have to sweat obtaining adequate worker, swayed and that's me, as we have? Finally, finally, finally, finally, let the unemployment rate get low rate.
And that's not necessarily abolish sign for the stock market going far right, that it's good for that gives good for people and is not bad for the economies of the unemployment rate below obviously like getting will be crazy today, it's bad, but it's like probably not great news for profits right that if they could use it off, back to for four and a half percent that would more comfortable situation for shareholders than the one now where, if you have growth opportunities, if you think you could sell more stuff but more stuff you're gonna need higher. Two hundred more people like that's now at a difficult proposition in a good way, that's another episode of the weeds thanks to everybody out there for listening thanks as always to our producers, Jeff gown and the weeds. Return on Friday,
the cut is applied cast from New York magazine. But it's much more than that, its thirty minutes a week where we really Wrestle with ourselves we're talking societal expectations, race, sex career ambitions and our bodies. I just spend our time on Instagram, looking at health at any size nutritionist talks and unified I've. I'm a factor on the internet. They just come to me baby. The algorithm we're here conversations? You'd only have with your most trusted friend, so Gabby? What were the most painful memories? I'm just regular, listen to the cut on Spotify Apple or your favorite podcast, app
Transcript generated on 2021-09-10.