« The Weeds

Why health premiums rise, and how partisans discriminate

2015-12-11

Ezra, Sarah, and Matt are reunited at last for a deep dive into why patients in and out of Obamacare are paying more for health insurance, the rising tide of Islamophobia in the presidential campaign, and a look at fascinating new research on the psychological depths of contemporary partisanship. Have you heard The Message? It’s an original science fiction podcast from Panoply and GE Podcast Theater. All of Season 1 is available now, so listen and find out why a 70-year-old alien recording seems to be killing people. Search for The Message on iTunes.

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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Have. You heard the message it's its original fiction podcast from Panoply and G podcast Theatre. Season. One is available now so check it out. Listen find out why a seventeen year old, alien recording seems to be killing people search for the message on Itunes. The following points asked contains explicit language.
And I got my dog little savage hello. I want them to another episode of the weeds boxes, policy potassium, enabling that work, Matthew, Ecclesiastes and I'm really excited to be joined today by both of our regular back baby as recline and Sarah clip. Two wonderful wonderful passages seem for a little while, like Sarah might be exiled to New Jersey, we actually they represent, and so we are. We are glad to have her gaped from the clutches of the garden. Stay I've been going through pod casting withdrawal, do What like lotta shakes
hundred minute, microphones and every time that provides a worrying alot about my vocal fry. Like I e mail myself about my vocal fry now, yet it's weird roughly gotta work on it at them. They will do. It will do a whole, vocal fry episode. You know right now it sorted. This is the end of the year. I think a lot of people suddenly it at our company, but I think that a round the country are looking at their benefit and well mention and stuff for for the new year- and this is a lot of stories in the press lately about a topic near endeared, Sarah's, heart health, insurance, pray in essence hired and my heart, quick eye preview are two other segments. Oh yeah. They are again deep into that. We're gonna talk about the sort of escalating Islamophobia in America, in particular, obviously as embodied by Donald Trump right now, but but in a broader sense, do and then we have a white paper in this case an academic way.
We then I'm really excited about, which is about he's, really fascinating. Laboratory experiments showing that when you give Republicans and Democrats a chance, they will discriminate against each other more often than people of other races. Well, so we will talk about that and it crazy, fucking, research, how I can't I can't even way I'm not I'm so excited about health premiums are now so a lot of us are in the middle of open in Rome and right now we ve been choosing our insurance plans. I just submitted my benefit enrollment, just this past Monday end whether you have Obamacare or you of employer sponsored care. You are near certainly facing premium increases and that's organ to talk about it, as you know why and goes up why it's going up right now, what's happening in health insurance heads and you really of two different stories, one about Obamacare, which will get you in a second and one about employer insurance, which is probably how most of you if you're like the typical
can get your ensuring good. I think a hundred fifty million pendril yeah about half of the countries getting their insurance from their employers. The affluent advertiser friend, had cast listening we have. We like. We have a lot of people getting insurance at work, and I get this question. I ve seen it in the weeds and box my inbox so many times as I read a lot of stories about health care costs or slowly when this period of historic low growth, and people. Email me saying you know, reader articles, you say, healthcare costs are growing slowly mind. and premiums are going up very quickly. They going up ten twenty thirty percent. Some people say You explain. What's going on some people say you're a giant liar, but these people want to understand this seeming description. between really slow healthcare costs, growth and really fast growth of premiums. And one of things I realize, there's been a lot of really good studies that have come out over the past year to that
ethically show that employers that our companies are sticking the increase costs to us that employees are expected to pick up larger and larger share of their premiums of their deductibles of their cost sharing and those who say when we talk about insurance premiums. There's two different premiums, wait, there's the premium that the insurance company is actually charging, and then your employer picks up some of that tab and then is the premium that you see on your pace. right right, and so, if you are a reasonable, normal person, what you care about is that premium that you are paying. But in this by global universe of what is the premium. That's a different issue right so like employers can just like stick you with that, have dear tab right, the one thing you see, there's a good study from his consulting for an on that came out earlier this year. That showed that
let's say you know you have a hundred dollar premium told all the menacing they try to be very low, but this is used that verb sick of example and In two thousand twelve workers were paying on average twenty point, nine percent of the premium thou be picking up about twenty one dollars. Slowly, that's crept up over the five years to twenty three percent of its, not giant, but it is stepping up so so means that even if the premium didn't open, you feel like it and you feel like a dead, because your company is asking you to spend more and then, when you factor and all the other ways you pay for insurance, your copious at the doktor, the deductible. You have to fill that you see that work as they used to and twelve as has just three years ago, a paid through percent of the overall health care costs now we're up to forty six percent. So there's this cautious going on to us as workers in a kind of explains. This discrepancy between the slow healthcare costs. what's happening nationwide and the big healthcare boss, growth
all of us are feeling with Orange will innocent. Another thing happening as were you know, interposed we're talking about the open enrollment period. People are looking out for their insurance for next year. The part of not all but part of the pretty slow healthcare costs, growth, the last whatever it is five years or so has been at least partially driven by weak economy, then, your costs, just girl out slower and weak economies and the real debate Economics World has been, is all of the slow growth because economies really bad or is just half or most or a third or Vienna. Whenever fraction you choose, because you he is bad, but one or another, the economy's getting better and one thing we will expect to happen as economy gets matter, is for health care costs, growth to pick up whatever fraction, and that was being driven by weak economy is going to come back and there might even be a little bit of catch up growth, because people might have been delaying certain kinds of treatments of surgeries, bad. They felt more, financially strapped it. It seems possible,
I think we're not gonna know this for a while, but I wouldn't be surpassed. to see healthcare costs, growth really pick up and twenty sixteen, and, if ensures, think that is going to happen, then is a set. Twenty. Sixteen insurance pray say, are trying to factor that any they're gonna be building in a kind of costs increase to to deal with it. I guess I dont totally understand about this- is that if your below the Cadillac tax threshold, as I think most employer plans, are. it seems like there's a strong tax benefits to compensating your employee is by giving them big premium discounts, rather than doing this, this cautious over too right and sailing. In fact, like up a policy goal of the Obama, administration has been to reduce the extent of the Tec, subsidy and yet employers to give people or money and less health insurance, but the actual steps, if they ve taken to do that, have been. It seems to me pretty sort of my
and so to me, and in some ways it's a little curious that this is happening I mean I know You know people who email me like. I don't like it, people very angry about this, but is actually up a policy objective, one that sort of quietly both parties can share is to get employers to spend less money on subsidizing employees, health insurance- and hopefully I when we talk about this before, but but like pay them more. To me, it seems, like there's, almost been a surprising level of success in making that happen in kind of wood saving money on healthcare feels like it feels actually spending and then we'll talk about this. In a previous episode of that, we even tried to name it retire, but he liked my name. I don't I'm really sorry, I don't the paradox: zennor adopts of cost and she s so this kind of circles back to that idea, where what cost control feels like
you- don't charging me that great now I've a broken foot. You can't see it on because its podcast, but it feels like charging me for much more of the cost of the MRI I'm getting. I really have to thank you know. Do I need this second mri and my broken fight or wait. It out a little bit longer cement. Its weapons of union? I wanna sick as they want to zoom out in this plenary sitting. We skipped over up a bit of theory here, the reason economists in Republic healthcare walks, democratic outgoing dont, like this situation, is it they feel when your employer compensates you through health care, spending right through through paying your healthcare premiums what happen isn't it you don't know how much I have carefully costs, and so you spend warrant healthcare than you. Otherwise would the big argument? in the health economics world, is it this kind of distance rate? This kind of third party pay world where, when you will get your MRI Box media one who pays a bill and you don't even know how much had MRI ever cost that
you don't have the incentive you have when you're shopping for a tv or an Iphone or whatever, to go and try and get a better deal and so the then there is a kind of big effort in american healthcare policy to break down the amount of compensate in the comes through sort of civilian people employer subsidy is because Vienna folks feel that one of the things driving cos up is that the employer is one sort of paying the tab but the way that we're trying to deal that is to increase deductibles, it's cool pays narrowed. At work so that you don't have as many choices which always of either making you feel the cost of health care more clearly or what have not letting you make some the choices you otherwise would have made, and those are meant to serve bring down national healthcare spending that brings down that sort of addresses the problem of people taking this kind of Claire Subsidy and using it to spend more than they do need to on health insurance. The problem is even if that works
bring down national healthcare spending. It works in a way where people feel like it is increasing their personal healthcare spending. Recent economist. Don't worry about this and you've heard about this in it with a couple. Greenpeace's era is if they think that that Money that is being saved will eventually come out in your wages, but one the evidence, at last. She happened is very weak and too even if it does, happen. Nobody knows it's happening. You don't connect the two things. It's it's not like you say. Thank you! Employer for my higher deductible can now I'm getting higher wages it it's a weird, uncertain process. You may not be the person getting that raise, so there is a real mom! It's trying to be solved here, but the way people are solving it, Making customers, employees, health care, shoppers angrier right and in a way that you too are things I've learned dealing with this for- and I am sure many of our audience numbers our new this and took this for granted- is we're doing it at a time when it very hard to shop for health care where work kind of pushing people spend more saying you of this
Actually you need to fill or you're going to pay co insurance, which is where you pay a certain percentage of your health care Bell and should, in theory, incentivize you to be smarter shy By that I should go see you know who charges four hundred dollars. Remember I who charges eight hundred and pick the wonders just four hundred because I'm paying latte ten percent of the bill, or something like that It turns out it's quite difficult and, like I said, No surprise do a lot of listeners. It's really difficult and something that the very sick like an mri to actually find out prices. now quality, because actually is quality differences and imaging and figure out which one is the best go to so we have these academic theory is about people could be better shoppers if they had the right incentives, now, there's a few start ups working on this, but we very much lack the tools that We even need to
Cochino. If I want to shop for a tv, for example, I can look at the prices I can go and I can read reviews I can do so. Many resources to top their car to shop for a tv to shop for shoes, economic, those things I can return, if I'm not happy with that, but I don't care, doesn't have any of cry. It also isn't even clear that when people do shop they always wanted cheaper option. I mean you, may I don't want to tell the story of your MRI for you, but I think you shop around- and I mean you ve written about this publicly and you choosing the cheaper option in your conclusion was never gonna. Fuckin do now to get. I think you know what we started. I mean what I've been hearing about from people right now is specifically premiums, because this is Tis the season for for health insurance premiums and his words saying: there's a few different ways that that you consider make an insurance policy stingier ride, pretty guy's an employer. You can increase the deductible, so it site you get more treatments before the insurance as paying for you, you can increase co pay is so you have to kick
more, every time you get a treatment, but what we're talking about specifically right now is the premiums and not just the money that you as the employer fork over to the insurance many and to an extent it just an accounting convention, because there's money that quarter your employer, gives to the insurance company and then there's money that your employer gives to you and then you give to the insurance. But it's really only one and usually automatically yeah. I mean, of course you can simply opt out and say: no, I'm not gonna pay the premium, I'm not gonna get insurance, but then lose the subsidy, which is still covering sixty to seventy percent of the cost of the plan. So if your prudent, you don't do that is really just one sort of pool of compensation, but it's a restructuring right it's. This is like a three way: negotiation between yourself, the insurance company, your benefits manager, that's both about what
is the benefits package going to be, and we mostly here been talking about making the benefits package a little, less awesome and then there's the split of you know. How are we going to structural, and so a typical company has the and of saying will no one's getting arrays this year and were ploughing that money into keeping your premiums but it seems like most employers are opting against that option and are saying want to show rising nominal salaries for staff and then one way that their containing overall compensation costs is by giving you that money on the front end and then taking it away in the form of higher insurance premiums, but that whole game of premiums at premiums down doesn't seem to me like you would impact any of this stuff about bargain shopping or healthcare utilization or whatever, because the
he's just it has gone one where the other means of our point. Although one thing I just want to add to the sort of model you laid out there is that I think I'm not saying you're, saying this, but I do think it's important to say that it is not the case that the actual insurance punish staying the same price lot of this sort of like stylized miles. We these here, like a hundred dollar insurance plan, we ve been talking about sort of an inch, has been staying, the same price and employer, changing the about changing the share of it that they pay but employ, are going to negotiate with insurance companies and insurance companies. Hang them your same insurance. Spain is going up by twenty percent this year or fifteen or thirty. Or maybe, in some cases, negative five, but a big driver what's nine is actually the change cost of the exact same insurance, but that can change for a lot of reasons. It can change, because the employee- exchanges can change it because your work, is growing older. It can change because overall healthcare costs are going up. It can change because a new job,
he's been released into the market that the insurer expects it's gonna need to cover lop at that drug is expensive there, a million things can go into the insurers calculation of what they need to charge you, but a lot of this is happening, cause insurers coming back to your employer and saying that exact same Europe's you have is gonna jump up this right, and so every every red, vocs dot com or you listen to the weeds and hear your deep in the public policy world You should understand that if your employer comes to you and says the premiums we are charged went up ten percent, so in order to afford keeping the premiums that you are charged, although we are implementing a one percent on the board, pay us! You should understand as a rational consumer, that that would be a smart decision by the benefits manager that that is much more tax sufficient for you, because you pay taxes on your salary and you dont pay taxes on the employers, premium now in the real world it benefits manager who attend
did you announce that policy would face a massive revolves around and nobody has ever done. So it's too avoided across the board. Cuts in pay, they half do increase them come on. You I mean I shouldn't have to, but that's what they choose to do. They say we're not gonna do an across the board pay cod and we can't just take out of the corporate Treasury a ten fifteen percent increase. So we have to increase what we sk. The employers to kick in, which is exactly the same as cutting your pay across the board. Accepted also makes you pay more taxes, and it really be better for them to take full advantage of this just don't argue that it's not the same as an across the board pit cut in one way. I very much take the point you are making about compensation, but I do you think it's worth saying, and- and this is one of the things it is about- cured, and one reason I think the employer based health care system is a bad idea. It is now
Obviously, people value a dollar and healthcare benefits away. They value dollar and wages, or even to to make the sort of tax calculation more more complete. A dollar, thirty and healthcare benefits way they value dollar in wages. I think it a lot of experiments. Are you actually get people to make these trade offs? It turns out that above a certain level of health insurance and actually just want the money and so one thing that will happen in one region. People are upset and they don't want to take the pay cut and so forth. Is it part- we in a world where most of the healthcare spending its happening on them is heard of this kind of iceberg. It does not he also to like something devalue and produce for younger, healthier employees. It does not feel them like something of value to keep a pretty generous insurance plan at the exact same level as opposed to getting a increased one of worldwide that it makes router, but also, but I There is just a lot of anchoring right,
people's Natalia his eyes were sent by the same token, benefits managers never say hey we're. Shifting everyone to a catastrophic only plan were not covering anything but everyone's, getting like three hundred dollars. Right em in the tendency is what ever you were doing last year, yes, try to maintain something that is similar to that of the consistent with people's pay going if it's up a tiny, tiny amount, but definitely not down right. Yet the only we voted on the reason I bring. I bring up that issue is just because I think one of the things it is happening in a very broad way, right, it's happening, and then we can talk about a bomb, a kind of second cause. It's partially what's been going on there too, but you are watching for a large variety of reasons, from rising healthcare costs of a long period of time to the coming Cadillac, tax, etc, etc, employers, trying to force employed to make something. more like that ideal short. Yet I like: how much do you really value a dollar and healthcare against the dollar and wages? There is a health care bill
that was our rounded the symptoms, Obamacare called widen, Bennet Ominous was CARE Bill beloved of wants. Myself included one of things I've done wise, it would have ended. The employer based system by cashing out all implore benefits in giving employees that money and then in place, would have taken that money and gone to these extreme. judges and ought whatever insurance they wanted, and the theory of Widen Bennet was it if you did that p would end up. In many many cases making much stingier health insurance choices, then what they're doing under the current sort of anchoring system One thing is happening in a slow and very painful way. Right now is people are trying to move a little bit closer to them world, but as a service had you know, moving from whatever was twenty. One percent goes to the twenty one percent of costs for the employed to twenty three percent, an employee screams about that. That is a very painful, painful change for a lot of people there, just not being able to set up that waste in a clear way of trying to get
nearer and nearer and nearer to it, but it s happening slowly and in ways that are really inefficient. We ve mentioned Obamacare a number of times here, but the prima setting process. There is completely separate from from that Yeah zoo, when exuberant seeing Obamacare this year is really big increase in premiums are different ways to measure it, but no matter how you measure at the increases way bigger in TWAIN steam than it was in twenty fifty So granted we're only working with two years of data right now, Obama years only been around since twenty fourteen This is the third up and around it open and roman period by it to just data the health, inhuman services. They found the premium increases in TWAIN. Sixteen are triple what they were in twenty fifteen and g. I doing more reporting on this, because I am genuinely interested on what exactly is happening here. We do have a few theory One is that the people who are on Obama care are thicker than we thought
be that- and this has been you know- a fear raised by Obamacare supporters occur raised by bombing our opponents thy? The people are NEWS, Obamacare going be older, going be sick, they're going to need a lot of healthcare. That's one thing you see in some of the insurers rate filings is an acknowledgement that both are sicker than they had thought. We also If something going on, where rates for twenty fourteen, the first year of Obamacare, they came in below what the Obama administration expected. I think it was a double checked. His number but in the show, not, I think, was twenty seven percent lower than Scipio projections and its possible that you know companies really under sat at the start and are now over setting its power the boy they understood as a strategy that they really wanted to get people on their insurance plans and now they're, starting to hike up right reed's end. The big question now is: how are you going to react to? What are they going to see this as a valuable product still going to unroll, are they going to find
Macao, valuable veto at these higher rates and one of the a questionnaire that is, I think, a really big unknown- is really big enough for the Obama administration really begun on for healthcare walks is dead. To your point. About potentially insurers pricing plans pretty cheap and then jacking up the prices, hoping that the people who are in those plans are just, pay the number you know nobody likes switching their insurance. You gotta find new doctors, you gotta figure out a new benefit package. It's a pain in the ass one thinks people always will individuals every year go back to the exchanges and search for better deal? Will they every year go back and look at what the offer is it is being made, by their or ensure and say oh no, that United Help offers and a good one. I wanna go with Blue Cross from two Goethe Etna this year. It is real unknown right now. The degree to which people will use that shopping mechanism to keep prices down. That is what the Obama administration hopes. It is what Healthcare walks hope in general. This is by way also your public in theory. If you look at how say Paul Ryan wants to rebuild medic,
it also realise on this kind of thing happening, but it is currently a very hypothetical thing that individuals and our major gonna be willing every single year to go back. And choose a new insurance plan in order to get the best deal. If they do that, then all insurance plans, organ have to become more efficient and be a very good thing for prices cross market, but if they don't, if they, I'm just getting locked into it, then we're just gonna be in a situation where often anywhere. insurers or are more willing to pass along price increases it than they are to sorted, make tough decisions to keep costs down. When I saw ready evidence on insurance switching is that there is evidence that a lot you want do this. I think, and again a double check this number and corrected in China wrong, but about a third of Obamacare rallies switch plans which I am sure that will tie. I would have thought, or maybe was a third should actually Shopton lucked out over which, but I think Doubling less than half are switching wheels of decent data from Medicare Part D, which is the prescription, drugs
and where we see that plans are very sticky. Once you pick a planner very unlikely to leave that plan, even if then there's another one, They cover your drugs at a better cost that you could do better with it underneath and about there's this massive market of plans. You know you have to think about some of the time you're going to spend on China. are you going to find the plan that has your doctors? I do understand they can an academic signs. We talk about. Oh, it's obvious, of course, use would switch to the cheaper plan of its cover, your Kara better at a lower price, but there is actually a lot of costs due to time costs associated with that one reason I would be optimistic about people switching and care is that either healthcare archive obviously gets up pretty bad rapid, a terrible launch, but the interface is becoming increasingly easy to use their directories or doctors are becoming better, so they are doing a lot of work to build an interface that makes shopping possible. That's one reason I would expect to see me
little more switching, but I think in general I would be shocked if more than even five years from now more than half of Obama, current rallies are switching plans. there's a little bit of a conceptual problem with this, which is that if you look at something more normal, like cellphone plans, those are you know their somewhat sticky, because I don't open only to change things, but one thing that tends to unstick them is of his London marketing right, eighteen, tee and Verizon and spreading T mobile their costly advertising. They'd send me stuff in the mail. They want you to swim
over their planned and if they come up with a new deal we advocated on. We is shorter than ever onwards way round him, and I use that word unless someone pays me. But the point is that marketing for that kind of stuff is is big. Those are some of the most prominent advertisers out there, precisely because it's a sticky market and then oh, it's hard to dislodge people, but the reason they spend so much like that is that having more customers is always good. If you are a cell phone company, you have in mind state in all of this fixed infrastructure, all these towers everywhere. I have no idea how the towers work, but it is expensive and I want more paying customers, Obama care by design is set
so that many many many customers of your insurance plan cause you to lose money, and so they don't necessarily want just any old person to come sign up because they ve been told the whole way. The policy works is if they can't charge you more just because you have pre existing medical conditions that are gonna, make you very very expensive to cover right. So it's not in your interests, to go out and find the people who are like most jazzed up about using health care and get the come over and get on your plan, so of course you do some marketing because you wouldn't be in the marketplace at all. Unless you wanted some kinds of costs but it's a very unusual kind of market where, if certain people like come knocking down your door, you can be in big trouble right. You don't want to be like this.
Plan? That's good! If you really need to see about here, if you want to advertising, oh Jim, you ever, do you have to advertise? This is, I think, it's outlawed in Medicare part de now, but advertising like a gym benefit, or am I heard anecdotes about putting like enrollment heartfelt, like multiples. Lord lorries of highs only like the healthy seniors can get there. I've- in some Obamacare insurance types of advertising and NBA game swearing, as it is a very, very male audience, and you can't gender, you don't to an extent. Obamacare is just a hard boiled political compromise, but there is also this theory right at sort of third way is theory about harnessing the powers of capitalism. Combined
education and public money to achieve sort of traditional social democratic ends, and you have a real problem, though, because the core function of capitalist stick insurance company is to take people who are bad insurance risks and get rid of it. But the core, like social democratic purpose of a universal health care system, is to get those people, medical care and there's like endless between those two ideas, and I think you see it when it comes to switching and you see it in a million different places were related to this plan. Yet to decide like what are you actually trying to write like? What are you hoping to happen and you see he knows you- attention coming up with United Healthcare saying like we might not sell around the exchanges and extra. That kind of we see what our aim as we see the aim of about my care and we just don't see a way to wreck inside the United Healthcare did too good a jar of designing, not people who required healthcare treatment and paying for them to get medical treatment
So Obamacare wants the insurance companies to do, but you how could they did it and they like we didn't actually it's like a great Jeddah mine trying to keep the people away so that we're sitting down and one dog that hasn't barked here in the democratic primary. When Democrats thought about this problem, two thousand and nine and two thousand and ten there answer for it, and I'm not sure this was a very good answer was a sufficient answer, but it, but it was an answer that was relevant, was a public option and our two versions public option, one which should be attached to Medicare and with these medical bargaining power, and that would be loud really be- will undercut private insurers and price and the Obama administration basically sat on very early on, but there is another idea which is basically that the federal government to be run a normal, ensure that it would run it by public ensuring it would just be like a private, ensure it just would have different incentives in a private, ensure right. It wouldn't have tremendous legal bargaining power, anything, but it s just would be trying to cover people on it, wouldn't be trying to make a peach profit, and it wouldn't have an incentive to do this. Gamesmanship
and whatever- and you know when you looked it- estimates of what that would do. It wouldn't have done all that much, but there was no particular reasonably who would be much cheaper and maybe will be more expensive because it would end up getting more sick people, but it would create a kind of benchmark and a bit of a safety valve? It was. Why wait, a sort of see what we're ensures really doing. This is what the public in was doing, and the public option is really important. People Democrat: two thousand and nine two thousand ten when I covered Obamacare it with such de flashpoint of caution. see that was most of what we ended up covering, even though it did and end up being in the bill, but once it was cut out, you do see Republicans who lahti different? You know sort of ideas right now for how to repeal or form Obamacare. You do not see Hilary in Burma Sanders and modern amali running around the country, really emphasising that they will get elected and put in public option into a bomb account to be. There was public option what I call the cops and light the collapse, which must be these non I've had plans and it has failed miserably LISA
option, support supporters were always like weirdly cool ups eyes with as political rationale, for why they're not running around supporting this public option, and it really speaks to one of the ideas. Bernie Sanders is to be clear, proposing the eye I'll. Take over tire. Healthcare appears as powerful is only he's like forgotten about others, thereby because that's what he's got a single pair planning you into it. It's made less relevant for him to argue for Obamacare Reform. I just mean for awhile across the broad swathes of the Democratic Party. aren't house members who are going down on the floor really talk about the public option. I've just been surprised to see given her poured in it was too Democrats during that time. How apps- and it has been from- Democratic politics, since I agree, although this particular weird through a democratic primary, is actually a perfect storm for not reviving the public option.
because you have sanders who so far left that he doesn't care about the public option, idea right and he's just completely transcending this with medical for all. Hillary Clinton is obviously like a standard bearer for like sell out NEO liberalism, and you know just like a bomb and never really cared about this stuff, inhabited rapid and then more normally. Who politically like should be the public option. I because he happens to have been governor of Maryland, has like this better idea, which is that you should do the regulatory stuff and do the all pay setting, and so it's been excluded from the wood layer. On top of that, we have tested this public option light and its proved incredibly difficult for these new insurers to come into the market. One of the theories of alarm and care was that these these marketplaces, what kind of open up the insurance market you'd, have companies come in and you to start these smaller insurers Obamacare funded at least two dozen of these cooperative insurance. Lands that we're gonna be non profit and they ve been like a disaster.
didn't New York when to shutting down its leaving. Thousands of people having this plans are learning it's very hard to build. An insurance company, even if it has got and backing and government loans is very hard to build and and come in this industry has dominated, is essentially three or four large players. So you know, I think, that what would you sort of coming down to hear in the end, is that unfortunately, like we don't really know why You see a really sharp partisan politics around, as that also makes it difficult to do any kind of small scale. Adjustments in theory, I think what you would say about a large complicated policy change as it there's a certain amount of inherent uncertainty around. What's gonna work and what's gonna go on, and so what we're going to have to do is after one year of informing
comes in and maybe change something a little bed. Then, after two three four year, like changed some more stuff and try to let me make that really concrete right. So, let's say that, as we have said that one of the issues insurers are fighting with the risk pool sicker than they thought it would be, Obamacare has died you could turn in that context right. You would turn up the individual mandate and where the individual, it actually is turning up a little bit right between twenty fourteen and then to Tony fifteen and out to twenty sixteen. It gets more expensive, but after that it doesn't so There were real fears when Obamacare us pass the individual mandate, which Do you remember the numbers up hand? It's like to point something percent of income in twenty sixteen, I don't remember I'm looking at you. You know that it was not. I mean it's a hell of a lot cheaper than buying insurance, that the bright yes and, in a word, where you had two parties
interesting to making a care work and they saw that not enough healthy people coming into the pool what they would do it. They would turn up the individual mandate. There is no chance and how that will happen, and so were kind of in it in a weird place. Right now, where employ is actually have a lot of ways to deal with these kinds of questions. They can change how people sign up. They can change one insurance they offer they can change deductibles. He can do all this different stuff. So there are dynamics in that more. but it's also kind of issues is what it is their right. The employer either offers you health care, or they don't you either We hope that the whole of Asia, nor able you sign up for care and they subsidized people who are all just used to that at our job, but then in a bomb occurs not says there are things we are learning as time goes on and we will continue to learn as time goes on, but There's a certain amount of regulatory discretion within the law, but in terms of actually changing the law like it changing how it works to adapt to new information, the political, equal, Lib
like will not allow you to do that at all, which is a huge in the long run on earth is a big problem in your three, but by your ten. If it continues, it will be a big fucking problem. Wait a minute is, in general things, don't design that way, don't work right. If you say we have big complicated this and no matter what happens in a changed at all, because the only option on the table is to completely scrap it. You can run the army that you couldn't run with recycling and run matter care that Medicare has constantly getting. That said, you know over fifty years old and is constantly getting little tweaks. We have changed Box Stockholm, a lot since we have launched, we ve changed the weeds. Now we ve changed leads so true, so I think we should. We should probably take out, take a break for a sponsor and then change the weeds to it. To a second topic Today's episode of the weeds is brought to you by the message and a ridge, well. Science fiction. Podcast from panoply and G podcast, theatre, Mickey Tomlin here and I'm the host of the message
take you and to an elite, cryptography, think tank and check it out. There tat, I shall try Now- is to decode a highly classified. Radio transmission from the nineteen forties listened not yet aware, having a discussion about that, but if I offer you the chance to listen to it right now, funds like a no vote,
To sum it up, extraterrestrials subscribed to the message on ideals of each of the big political controversy that is dominating headlines as weak and really profoundly dominating them like global eve, and is that Donald Trump came out and said that the United States should bar all immigration from Muslims and it has been treated in the press as completely outrageous thing to say, and people have really circling kind town on him and part of woods unleash. That is the Republican Party leaders. This
sort of Bin the trigger that has caused not only all the different candidates but Paul Ryan rents, previous, whose name I have no idea how to say what is the chair of the hour and see they ve all piled on to him and that's in part, because it sort of an outrageous thing to say. But it's also, I think, We all know that this should have been this Donald Trump problem out. Therefore, Republicans for awhile and they ve been a little bit waiting for a coordination moment to like all jump, on him and in stab here will have had a couple of him and they haven't worked the John Mccain more hero issue, and I thought it was actually a really sort of funny slightly telling thing about this, which was that Ben Smith, the editor in Chief Buzzfeed, Cynthia a memo out to people in and was about how its acceptable to talk about Donald Trump, and basically he was saying that the rules of view from nowhere journalism are temporarily suspended for the purposes of people calling Donald Trump erases. Any exact freeze he used was it there's nothing partisan about,
calling Donald Trump what he is, and I think that is very genuine legal literally true. There is nothing partisan about it, because the stakeholders in the Republican Party dont, like Donald Trump, so they don't mind if Msf reporters Ogre dump on Donald Trump. The way they would be really upset. If I said that JEB bushes plan to let christian refugees from Syria in button keep muslim refugees out. If I said that was racist The republican party would be really sort of mad at me, but they don't like Donald Trump Siegman, say what everyone about diagram and it's not quote, unquote, partisan, and so that sort of where we are with tromp. This idea, I am against it. I don't think we should have, blanket religious discrimination against Muslim. Her I'm a little unsure as to why this is considered more outlandish than when Donald Trump. Two weeks ago said we should have a national registry of all the Muslims living in the United States, and you want to close down
mosques yeah, shut down must, but also Marco Rubio said that shutting down mosques alone wasn't enough, and we also had to potentially shut down coffee shops where people we really can, though So I ve been, That is of shit. I did, and there I mean circles backed and Starbucks Radical Contra, her anyways. I think that was Rubio way of trying to sort of take. This mask shut down conversation out of the space narrow religious discrimination and into sort of generalised shredding of the constitution, I'm looking so it was a bit of an odd moment, be in general. I guess where I'm going with this is that, while I think that what Donald Trump is saying about this is pretty outrages it seems to me to lie much more smooth continuum with where other people in the political system are than its really being given soda.
Credit, there is an interesting ran Paul. I forget, I think we had it on vocs, but Grandpa basically saying why don't support that price support? Something very similar and its do have this coffee, things do you read, for I said on the Kelly file Lockerbie Assent on Fox NEWS as Kelly file. It is not about closing down mosques. It's about closing down any place, whether it is a cafe, a diner, an internet site, any place where radicals are being inspired. Re adds that that I mean, I mean how do things are happening on way? You could take that and be like. Ok, maybe means supernaturally? But thank you So he goes on to say whatever you say, being used. Any facilities being used to radicalized and inspire attacks against the United States should be a place we look out, so I think the general depredation here be like. If you have a coffee shop, not really a coffee shop? It's really a ISIS plodding headquarters. You
not that down. But that is not the common you make. If the point you want to make is Donald, I'm saying we should just shut down. Mosques is an incredibly terrible thing to say I mean. Obviously you know if you go back to your bag really. Basically, why do we have a constitution, three. If it, if you have a market Rubio Department of Coffee shops, you're supposed to sit air with like a board of seven people and their deciding what is excessively radicalized right. So you know what, if you have a coffee shop, I don't know why you it's a coffee there's that there's a venue of some kind of an internet website like say electronic intifada, that right right, which is gauging in rhetoric about the Israel, Palestine conflict. That to me is a little over the top, but within the bounds of reasonable stuff. But then I note to my aunt LISA certain outrageous incitement to violence against Israelis right
So because we have a first amendment. One thing we can all agree upon as Americans is that, though, we may disagree about these really palestinian conflict. There is a right to free speech and to have an internet forum in which ideas are discussed and sent to me, this will be a proposal that was really really weird sort of dangerous thing to say, but he he's like the mainstream establishment persons. You didn't have this kind of pylon, and then you had. The entire leadership of the Republican Party responded to the Paris shootings by joining up an issue about syrian refugees, but I don't think there's any way to understand the politics of that other than them saying that syrian refugees are too dangerous to be allowed into the country because they
Muslims. That's not! The literal text of what Paul Ryan and everyone else was saying about the syrian refugee issue, but there's no logic to it. Otherwise we would be just for pupils under the paradox. I well because the paradox were not done by sea and refugees. They were done the people. Syrian refugees are fleeing, and so did I say the response should be to keep us in refugees kind of say that as of religion because of ethnicity. Other things it's kind of too much all the same. right, and it's awaiting your wife, I so to give to be more generous to their view that you did have one of the attackers attempting to come in as a refugee that wasn't true wasn't at the donkey passport was irish, twenty use that forge passport to become in as a refugee through, but that we want to be feared. That was what I thought was offensive about this, because you can forge doctrine
to come into America. Many many different ways and like it's a hell of a lot easier to forge a document to come in as a european tourist and affords document to come as a refugee, the Refugee programme in America's very stringent. Actually that to me was a place where, like one looked really into it. That's why I think it. It was his kind of deeper, more and realized anxiety, I may be so bold vivacious document forging the place to start is not syrian refugees and then both TED Crews and George Bush said that we should make an exception for christian refugees from civil right right. Where again I mean We see what they are saying. Anything it's not to be clear is that of totally totally unreasonable notion right that if you had no people of muslim background in the United States of America, then probably you would reduce the odds that any of them
secretly, be you know, ISIS operate or something like that, but, as you saw when Donald Trump took that subtext and made it text, everyone is, I know, that's horrify, you can never blanket religious discrimination, but it clearly was the sub tax of not just like what some republicans, we're doing answer to me this world, in which Donald Trump peep more more people ice here like calling Donald, Trump, a fascist and yet the mainstream look in view is that we should have religious discrimination among which refugees we lead in and possibly shut down, all mosques and coffee shops, where we don't like what people paying and its I mean again. I don't want to say that where Trump is identical to where other people are because it clearly isn't, but it's not oh, my god. Where did this come from where the logical nation shared between the Trump agenda in the mainstream republican agenda is very clear to me. It's clear, too conservative talk. Radio house is good Republican Party Ben its clear and pulling one of things
is really important about tromp is it is political antennas? Very good there is pulling bed shows. Seventy six percent of Republicans, who think Islam is incompatible with American Valley I think, was a question and and by the way forty three percent of Democrats agree. So it's a majority of the country. The believes that by the gets smart, fifty six percent of all american, but seventy six percent of Americans as always, fundamentally fundamental american and thirty percent of republican voters in Iowa, which is a very important state for other fervour. Republican presidential ended, thirty per cent of GNP voters in Iowa think is, I'm should be illegal and if you get thirty percent Republicans- and I want you- might win Iowa and few in Iowa, you might win the election, so she's, not nothing with their responding to I mean. This is a place where they are. Responsive to a genuinely significant strain of sentiment and in their party and something I would also just connected
and this summer I think Donald Trump is kind of a genius in the way he campaigns. This argument from him was released on the same day, the first ever Paul showed him losing to TED crews in Iowa. So that morning a pull comes out. Just how the head of Donald Trump in Iowa, and that after noon, Donald Trump sense of oppressed, least, which is often not how he makes announcements. This way by the Lebanese has had a press release saying that we should bar muslim immigration into America when he does that the media explosion, everybody covers Donald Trump and others. Is it big fight about? What can you say and Donald Trump gets to be standing against the establishment media gets to be standing as he stopped from republic Party and gets to be showing that bit. He will uttered the words that other politicians will not utter that that he will not be cowed by political correctness and thing that I thought it was initially connection to is. Theirs is long running republican argument that one of the major problems in the war on terror is
Obama, will not say what it? What is it islamic radicalism, radical as eyeing terror, radical islamic terrorism, its it some some very some variant of that, but that is a serious point like it's a genuine setback for our efforts to keep the country safe into wine. Things like the fire on ISIS. That Obama is being too politically correct to mean this- what it is, which is a religiously motivated problem in the country- and this is a more stream version to some degree of of that argument. The Donald Trump is taking that, to its real extent, and saying that you all these other, politicians. They are too afraid to say what obviously true here, but the problem here is Muslims and it's a religious problem and I'm the only one who will do that when he does it. He gets all this coverage. He goes up in the polls, he's very smart he's playing too real audience here, but he is also, I think, as you say, Matt you know taking something that has been around in the water to its logical conclusion. After the mastery of like how the media worries
few wheelchair user. You knew too instead of talking about this Paul. Where he's behind is, I think we had a piece on vocs social cohesion. now that he's calling angelic, literally every network and having these interviews about as new statement and no one's asking oh you're falling behind in the polls, which would theme No you set it up to. That seems. I kind of an absurd question delayed by the questioner League with is how could you possibly the band Muslims from coming into the country ends. It speaks to put this in shown us because, as book from ninety days, then the art of the deal where he writes about you know how much better as you know, yes, he could take out afford thousand dollar. Thirty. Forty thousand our ad in the New York Times, but why not? Let's get like a media ok, New York Times story about his new business deal that so much better than any advertising. He could pay for and e he's it's this. oh, that's operating right now. that is getting all this coverage for free about the things
once again I wanna things. It is so interesting about the way he acts as it Donald Trump really is what would happen if you took the skills of quality television star and put them into a presidential campaign had when a reality television shut, while its fundamentally a fight for air time, the point of being on a reality television show, is to be famous when you come out the other side and the way to do that is meant to be there to make friends you have to be, there did not make friends you have to go and when you're in that confessional or when you're in in the living room or whatever you have to say the things that will get the producers to cover you. as the main character of the show, and it doesn't matter if your covered positive your negatively, really. You can always turn renown now and into some kind of celebrity later in UK shifty. No, it's valence when you need to but Donald Trump, someone who really understands the dynamics of reality television, he really understands that. The most important thing is how Europe bird its, whether your covered its, whether you are the person who is getting the scarce airtime and every time he
in danger of losing at right, like TED Crease, would have naturally started getting a lot more coverage. Now that there is some evidence who is becoming a front runner in Iowa, but now Donald Trump is gonna, get out coverage in a cupboard is gonna, keep Donald Trump ahead, and- and I really think understanding chump through the lens of a reality, television star, that's why he understand media so well. It turns out that the dynamics of reality, television at the dynamics of covering presidential campaign, aren't that different, which, by the way, is something kind of distort pics Fine novelists have known for a very long time, but we're just The kind of thing we would have written his hilarious parity of two thousand and fifteen America in ninety ninety five come true. This is what Donald Trump about his views on the press and nineteen. Eighty seven ways as it should when I was very young, I always chose to live in a certain style. The result is the press is always wondering about me. I'm not saying that they deserve, you like me, but for pure business point of view, the benefit being written about, have far outweighed the drawbacks so any the admitting alot of the coverage- is not positive but that he kind of seas from this relative star
ask point of view that the benefits of coverage you know far outweigh that. But I think another thing that makes us work, though, is the role of conservative talk, radio, which tends to file a little bit under the radar, because it's difficult, it's just literally difficult to consume and process and know what's going on but where's, he Gray had a good piece at Buzzfeed about you know: she's like listen to like two days of conserving talk, radio about trumpet nets and and and conservative tuck radio people were generally favourable to travel without explicitly endorsing his position and worse. Limbaugh actually puts his transcripts of So he has this long thing, where
ever says that he thinks Donald Trump is right about banning all Muslims from emigrating to the United States, but he says a Donald Trump is a political genius, the down from his playing the media correctly, that the republican establishment is teaming up with the liberal media, as they do time and time again, and it never works for them. They never get. The respect from the Amis M that they are craving
says that we know politically. That is a position that many people agree with, and Donald Trump is the only one who speaking up for its Russia's Walkin Align, arrived and rush could be on the other side of rush was a a better human being or if rush resist a better team player for the republican parties objectives. He would have joined in on the pile right which limbo could be saying. Look if you think that abortion is murder, if you think that taxes are too high. If you think that Obama's regulation is strangling the economy, it's time to get serious people, not waste. Our time would Donald Trump it's time to get a nominee who is going to win the election and of all of these very serious problems that I, as a conservative, talk. Radio host the great really big deal at America, but like Russia is not doing that most of his colleagues and that space are also not doing that. Now. The sort of high toned conservative journalists in the text, space largely are doing that like
articles in national view, like blaming liberals for the Trump phenomenon. People are very sad that cable news is pumping up, but conservative talk radio which, as you know, it's an ideological Spaceboats US or commercial space, is very commercial space. They clearly like Trump and they like being trumps standard bearers and he speaks for both to an extent their world view, but also to their desire to have bombastic conflict with the mainstream media. rather than something boring like tax cunning, legislative right or you know that the things that would flow from republican President being elected are really big deals in the policy realm, but they're, not necessarily the same kind of like big epic clash that this like Donald Trump versus the forces, human decency represent a naval they enjoy, keeping that going in its its keeping of afloat, excellent speaking of the forces of human decency, that's a good subway to our research of the week.
one of my obsessions in american politics, uncovering american politics. Events related to two lot avoid talking about here is the the nature of partisanship is changing over time, and I think this is very easy for people to mess, because we have, for a very long time, had arrived, we can party, we ve had a democratic party in some kind of look back twenty years Fortier. Sixteen, Eighty years, a hundred years and has always been a certain amount of conflict between the two parties- and so it's very easy for us to say always away. It's always been right like it. If this is just been a more of the same, we ve always been bickering and I think the it's really show is partisanship- is heartening in mutating into something much more profound and fundamental, and I found this fascinating paper by two side, a shadowy anger whose at Stanford and Sean Westward whose Dartmouth they noticed there. When you look at election surveys, which is the national election survey over time, it people's attitudes towards the other party,
robbing really sharply, and I under the numbers, run in front of you here, but as something like. You know when you went back a couple decades in, almost half of partisans, liked the other party, fine right when you had them sort of rid other party on on of a feelings thermometer in they just like their party better then over the last kind of like thirty forty fifty years. What's happened has been that our attitude towards our own party has remained, Zactly saint? We don't like we're not becoming more part and could be like our party better. What has happened is our estimation of the other party has as dropped through the floor, and that got them interested that this partisanship we're seeing with something about how he viewed the other here, They saw this really fascinating, said a poor results in nineteen. Sixty Americans were asked if they would care their son, our daughter, Mary, a member of the other party, and only four percent of Democrats and five percent of Republican cared. If asunder daughter married a member of the other party, he just didn't wait for them partisanship of their child spouse. not a relevant consideration, but that Sir
it was a redone in two thousand, eight, two thousand and ten, and it found numbers between the twenties and Fortys for Democrats and Republicans in whether they be upset if their child married a member of the other party and that that's a huge increase from forty five percent. I think that you know for the most recent one who is in the thirty percent area for Democrats and above forty percent for a publican when they looked at this. They thought that this implied that partisanship was beginning to affect non political facets of our lives. At parson. Ship is becoming an eye, entity as they did, these two experiments are really interesting. One was they gave people sample recipes of high school students and ask him to award of scholarship and Raspberries could vary in three ways. The GPA could be a little higher little lower right for point over three point: five there could be a partisan q right. It could save at the kid had been president of their high school democrats of our high score Publican club, and there could be a racial q, which is to say, could have
typically, african, american or european american name and save the person had been head of theirs. African American Student Union at their high school, a variation that affected, who got the scholarship most was partisan. When you gave a democrat a scholarship and one of the kids was a Democrat. when the king was republican, even if the democratic a lower GPA. They gave the democratic scholarship and the same thing for the Republican they gave the republican scholarship even the Republican had a large EPA. This is a comment We non political task, there's no reason politics should have entered into it at all, and this was a this is a more powerful effect than we saw GPA and a more powerful effect than we suffer race. Then they did it other study, which is it was really interesting. We ve. Actually we created the study on box. He can take this test on vocs dot com, but they did something called implicit association test, which is the sort of computer task for you, match pictures and words very, very fast, and you have to match pictures with positive words or with negative words, and these tests begin
and in the kind of re space and what they kind of found is that It's an interesting way of measuring racism because it happens at sort of speed faster than conscious thought and this kind of to do if it accords to what you already believe about the world. So you think white people are good and blackmail or bad or or of our you're gonna be able to complete the task much more easily than if you have a bite, against black people and your asked to match the faces of black people to positive adjectives at that speed they built one of these four partisanship and they found the partisans were more biased against each other than a mirror. there were two people of other races, so they founded on an implicit, biased, hast. When you we ve tried to get Democrats to match Republicans. You know Republika iconography to things like the were an excellent or Republicans too much democratic, iconography, two things were excellent. You saw huge amounts of bias on this very standard test and these things together. What they show, I think, is one that part
since ship. When people actually know about it, has become a venue for discrimination that it is something that we can actually expect to be causing things like workplace discrimination, Discrimination is her marital sorting out discrimination in values that are just not very political, but also that it's become such a core identity to us and we hate the other side. So much that is actually become a very port in cleavage in american life in and of itself, the sort of old view of but partisan polarization was it. It was a way of describing a disagreement. We belong to different parties, and the parties are because we disagreed, but with this kind of work shows, as the partisan identities themselves are becoming the cause of the disagreement, we dislike the other party because we dislike them and thus created all kinds of reasons for us to come up. With reasons too, like them even more implies. I think that this is not a meaningful to very denoted, to fact evidence to to rational discourse. This has become a kind of a hatred that we care very dear to our hearts and thickets
I think it's really interesting and profound research, but I think it's very scary and one that we carry somewhat unconsciously. So one of the things I want on back, that's Tesla that the implicit, biased tat these are ones you can find a racial when a mine- and the idea is in that Then you may be someone who considers yourself right, mortally hot operating that you really you know did feel it. You don't have areas biases, and then you take this task in reveals. The simplicity where you have these fast situations, more difficulty, association, associating good words with different sort of re says. The idea behind these tasks is to show these. implicit biases that you yourself may not be aware that you carry that. It's not just catching people who are outwardly bigoted are expressing racially biased views, taking it to the political role. They're, just that were carrying those around with us unconscious that. I might not even realize these biases going on that I'm going to come, recoil little bit from somebody different political party. That has become
so ingrained over the past twenty or thirty years, and it so it's right here how you know that the about marriage I grew up. My parents are both strong democrats. My dad had said from like a young age. Care. If you marry that drug user, you know anything about it. I dont merrier public in a really. This is like the house that Sarah Cliff was raised on us, you're. Really. I gigs haggling over. That's not prizes, like I thought, those just in America that parents say to their kids that it's become like us. Yet I was not surprised as a child, and that sort of upper is- and I think this is really interesting, but I sorted out by a high I for one.
Hang we know republican adults are having more kids that democratic adults and also that, among certain cohort of older people, there are many more republicans, but then we know that younger people are mostly Democrats, so you have just in the real world lots of inter familial, partisan, flipping right. It's like I'm an actual phenomenon and I think, in reality met my wife is pretty liberal. Her parents are Republicans. I guess we don't talk a lot about politics when we hang out, because it would be tedious to have like big family political arguments but like his fine, we get along like we have a good time is really not have not a big deal. You know people say lots of things of about their kids, but I would be fascinated to know how much walking the walk to people
about that bus. Because then how can I go would say. Another sort of big macro thing, and we can see, is that Washington DC is a city where almost every one is a Democrat, but it is very starkly divided along racial lie sway, and we know that the city is segregated in like real, meaningful ways, its there's residential segregation, as there is in most american cities. But if you ve ever had the experience of living in a racially mixed neighborhood in DC, which I certainly have at various times, it is segregated on an establishment by establishment basis. There was a good article, I think, was in washing Tonia about wise dinner time. Sir segregate Washington DC by people in white people attend different churches right ways. I think that if you go to like a predominantly why but politically mixed suburban area, you gotTa Latin County Virginia arm shortest places like this no high Owen and are there swing state
I don't see anything like that kind of segregation in terms of people's partisan mentalities. While again I can't go to pen era like that's, that's that's Publican sandwich right, so I mean it is interesting that the experiment results are wrong. We know that race and racism are a big deal in America. We just know that from my history, life reality and in their certain metrics that we used to measure that, and then you can say, oh ok might be fun as like an exercise to take those metrics and apply them to political partisanship and it's interesting to see what results from mad. But I think it's like a real mistake to then read that back in as if we have no information about how american society actually operates and conclude that partisan based discrimination predict.
And an implicit subconscious level is like as big a deal as race and racists, and so do I say I do want to say one more thing out on behalf of the the researchers here today will be very quick to point out an and we talk about this in the article they are. not saying it's as big of a deal they're, not saying it's as bad as a definite saying it's worse, and it works very, very differently. Rite aid, one thing of racial, gender and other concerts combination discrimination. Is there a lot of cues to do it in a way that people don't set of wandered on the street and the like tea party? Patriot costumes are like wearing an Obama's sticker on their forehead. I agree with what you're saying, but I do just want to be- I want to put in the December for them that NATO has some of what they were trying to do is take a benchmark for this kind of test that we already have because very hard to measure things. Discrimination and automatic biases, and we ve done a lot of it and race. So that's a bench we can do to say is this more than we expect a lesson. We expect and I mean one reason they wanted to do. The implicit association test was that you know this
something that I anger said to me. They should have looked scholarship past and said we don't buy it. And the reason they didn't bite was. I figured that racism he's very. It is something you're supposed to suppress, even if you haven't rights of your sitting over the research or even if your instinct is your white and you want to give the scholarship to the white kid with a large epa- and I ask you not to do that, whereas partisanship is not there, way may or not. Quite that way anyway. So one one hypothesis they had. You know what that test was that actually they weren't seeing what is really going on, because people were suppressing suppressing there. The men and in giving voice to their partisanship. You got this guideline weren't, you know partisanship one of the few things were allowed to hate, and so they went to be simplicity, association, test I agree with your right. I think that as much as that is really drifting. Finding I deftly when I like, walk out and be like all well. Partisanship is a bigger discriminatory deal in America than racism right you're, not having issues with who gets shot in America based on partisanship, but what
but I do think is really important, because you were just talking about residential segregation and marital segregation. this is new racism in America's very old it's been around since the dawn of the country, its poor, that is before there wasn't America, and even if Rachel, it is, they are better than they were. We have very powerful, sir. social groups that are worn into the way we live that speak to a tree men to see significant legacy of deep deep racism, the continues on into this day partisanship was not like this fifty years like when you looked at the way people married when you looked at where they lived. When you looked at how they organise their lives, they just didn't sort pay, some partisanship and now and we are seeing this in where people, to live. There is the other way or tat: I didn't go into it in his peace, but about who they choose Andy sites and how important political partisanship become when they choose a mate and when you kind of look
somebody's trend. If you assume that Parson polarization it's gonna either remain its steady state or frankly, as I do, criminal get works. I think that the forces driving it are going to continue any look forward. Fifty years a hundred years I mean People really do now move to places where they don't interact with people who have a different political position than them right. If you know kids graduate college in they might move to San Francisco, because it is a very liberal town, yet let us know why we have. This is one problem with doing the comparison to fifty years ago, though, because one reason people didn't take those kind of partisan q seriously fifty years ago is parties, including convey in from Anja percent fifty years ago. So it's which is the part B, as the parties were more ideological ways, so I mean it's a big change, but it's almost so big change is a little difficult to know how to interpret it or you know what exactly sort of that comparison is. I mean, obviously, in the sixties. People had some strong feelings about
hippies. You know you know or whatever, but it wasn't aligned with the crisis. In the same way worries. If you look at how partisanship worked before wine, he was very entrenched and it was very, it was an identity, the way it is now that we invest in, but it was also very strictly tied to certain kinds of identities right. So if you were a southerner and you were black, you were definitely republican and we were southern on your way. You were definitely a Democrat and that was a historic legacy that had nothing to do with like the bills and Congress today and then in the north, Catholics were Democrats, exe. Some cities, where catholic, Irish Democratic Party machines were so dominant, that Italians became Republicans and reminded the watchful Republicans and there's a whole thing. You know it's even see within protestant churches. Even that the DE more even jellicoe branches would be more of Republican where's, the more liturgical branches would be more democratic and you,
He was, on the one hand you could say: well, ok, so partisanship itself was the structuring, ident but you could us, I know it's like the parties were built out of these identity groups have had their own in group and our sort of biases, and I do think that import that's one of the things that you're seeing today, I read a book out recently called out called white backlash. Immigration race in american politics, its via Marisa, Apprehend Owen and SALT, on
I think, as heavy say his name. Their argument, basically, is that the influx of Letty Nose into the United States and into the Democratic Party is reshaping wife, what race sort of means in politics to be more about? Who is white and who isn't rather than about who is black and who isn't, and also that its giving just much more weight to the non white point of view in politics and is making white people identify much more strongly with the republican Party. As I get custodian of white interests in the way that were custom to non white groups and finally, with democratic Party, which is not just to say that they would say that partisanship is being sort of like remove dead, specifically along the lines of racial cleavage, is rather than as a separate cross, cutting sort of young that it just like partisanship, is increasingly about racial and ethnic affiliations, which is how it was when, when America was in its
in Haiti is one other thing we haven't touched on as much about your mentioning how you know we see a lot of racial and ethnic divide, and where people live, but there's all people of another way to live now, throw the media they consume the three different from when you are living your neighbor than as yet. If these sixty seventies, you consume the same five television I know that a realist consumed my parents living like one of the few republic in areas of the Seattle suburbs, which is shocking that exists, but there is one area where we are and by republican, and they are, as I mentioned earlier, quite liberal Democrats and they are pretty much living and like a totally different world from there. Birds where, like Fox NEWS, is very big and like their listening telegraph, limber and I'm here Are, you know in their house? Analysing them is NBC in getting their news from they're all websites, my dad's, a wandering around the neighborhood in his Obama T shirt. Theirs is eighty when you're in these areas are looking homogenous, where you do have partisan segregation, even in those spaces like reinforce that.
build that identity in a way that wasn't possible in unacquainted years. You're, almost sure yes right, didn't tonight, isn't just that. I have an opt in to only reading liberal articles, but it said unless I Bree work, my entire life, so that I didn't grow up in New York City and mostly went to high school with people who themselves are liberal if I consume media that what is currently the mainstream waited to it, which is lagging onto Facebook and seeing what my friends have shared, I am forced to write me sort of reinscribed in particular since economic and ideological contacts that that situate, and this is one reason I think, that the sorting of ideology, which is you say, was ideology and partisanship used to be different. You had conservatism, never got a party liberals in the Democratic Party in the same for their public and party, but now that their pets That was a very necessary condition to allow this to become a much more important personal identity, because
allowed in a very I think, important way for a sort of ecosystem, the self organise that helped people knowed hate, swarming, imagined being Fox news One thousand eight hundred and fifty and trying to like identify who the enemies were, and you can attack the Democrats. You can attack the Democratic Party get some of you know, best friends as a movement are Democrats, and so it was just much harder to certain liberal from conservative before kind of conveniently organized into parties then channel through american politics and how these tremendous consequence to which party got elected right now, now that there now they're so incredibly different, I mean one reason I said I think partisanship seeking to continue to get worse and polarization will can you get worse? Is it now that we've sorted into Republican and Democrat, and now that that corresponds to conservative and liberal and to some degree you know it? It has a racial. You know in Flex. well and then- and you know, and a number of other identities are beginning to map onto that. We,
seeing that it is possible to map that onto many many many more kinds of identities and issues I mean something I was always really fascinated by was watching how many people listening followed the sort of game or gave thing, which was his kind of like very convoluted strange war over video games and online harassment of feminist videogame critics and then in a ident backlash of mostly men who felt that their interests, video cameras, are being run over in the interest of political correctness and on and on and on and on. I want to try to do justice to explaining is very bizarre, but what happened amidst it is about grew bigger was a bit it. A bunch of organisations that could give a shit about video games got very invested, if you would just no one which organisations are on which side like bright part, was a big programmer gate thing Salaam is a big antigay. Margate thing is looked like a fight over government shutdown, but it had. It was not. As about whose have had it,
you, it ethics, the end, but he'll give an ethic and in how you respond, I guess a video game journalism and, and and how do you send death threats to the feminist bidding him critics either? going to see a lot of that in the coming years. I think that with this kind of research really speaks to that. As he's become identities, it are clearer and more According into us, there's gonna be more efforts to link those identities to other kinds of fights and american life, and that's gonna further reinforce. She said it and give you more sense of cleavage and distance from people on the other side and that identity just keeps getting more powerful, more powerful, more powerful is more things get attached to it. It's not just what you believe about taxes is also what you believed about Gamer Gate and its also. What you believed about you know certain kinds of justice: Generals cultural questions was a pole. I was running interesting couple years ago that showed a huge majority of Democrats wanted twelve use a slave to win an Oscar. Unlike most Republicans didn't, and the democratic and report
parties had no position on this issue. Nobody had ever taken a position on this issue. This wasn't even an issue. I would have considered a partisan cleavage public, hence historically, in fact, been strongly against slavery. Because for us, so that I think is where I had. Only this research is about whether this stuff is worse and racism but it is using it as a benchmark to say this is becoming, away, we sort that is very personal and is leading to a real kind of hatred and, as you say, I think it's much newer and facts of iter. Younger has not been as much time for people to build a patterns and so forth, but I do think that when you look at these trans in you try to extrapolate them forward. I think it's something worth at least thinking about an and worrying about
you know, I think, that's very another. Important way did we sort ourselves as by which I have listened to a sense of scribes? Yes, so I waited opportunity to bird to reinforce united by reviewing us well waiting. As I would like to tell your friends to listen to subscribe, we're structured around Evergreen topic, so people can check out the back catalogue. relevant all the time at it's really the weeds in the central part of my identity, and I think you should make it make it part of yours out there out there in an internet plan thanks for listening, to add to our sponsor as the message to our blue, sir, I see Valdez and we will thus well I'll, be back next week or more with the office we will
Transcript generated on 2021-09-15.