Republicans Will Win Midterms, Polls Are Wrong at least in my opinion. Many people asked why the Democrats lost the 2016 election when polls shows them heavily favored to win. One reason is that people polled did not reflect the new republican base voting for Donald Trump.I don't think the polls were able to solve the problem of not reaching Trump's base and because of that I think the Republicans will maintain a majority over Democrats in tomorrow's election.
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This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
In twenty. Sixteen, the poles were wrong and the predictions were wrong. Hillary Clinton was heavily favoured when but she lost. Since then, people are asking.
Why were the pole so off and some have said, maybe it's because the people being Paul the do not represent those who voted for Donald Trump, that you had independence. Yet former Democrats and you had new voters so
morning. The president right now they're saying the Democrats of an eighty five percent chance of taking the house. Why should I believe them now? Look I'm not an expert pollster. I dont.
I usually track congressional races, but I believe that the Republicans will probably keep everything, and
I have no fear of being wrong, because my career isn't predicated on whether or not I can make accurate predictions like the pollsters and the people making these predictions right now we're hearing from poet
that poles are showing the Democrats are losing. Their lead were also hearing that republic
are still maintaining a lead when it comes to early voting. When I look at this and I look
the reasons as to why the polling was wrong and twenty sixteen. It leads me to believe the Republicans will likely win in both the house.
And send it there's some other reasons to online and gay
in my opinion, favours the right way more.
It was going viral. Supporting rightwing ideas means supporting rightwing ideas- things I just don't see on the left so today, one day before the midterms, let's take
look at the latest data and see just why
poles were wrong and twenty sixteen and, if maybe they're, wrong
But before we get started, please that order patriarch comports lashed him cast doubt support my work.
Patrons are the backbone of the content. I creates, if you like these videos, when you want to see more than pleased gotta patria dot com for its lifetime cast and become a patron today. I'm gonna lay my case as to why think poles are wrong, but first, let's actually look at the polling data. This is from politico generic ballot narrows uneven
the final political morning, consult pole prior to the mid term. Elections shows Republicans cutting into Democrats lead on the generic congressional ballot. According to the pole, forty three percent of registered voters would vote for the democratic congressional candidate in their disk
only slightly more than forty percent, who would vote for the republican Kennedys. Eight percent of registered voters are under
Among those who say they are very likely to vote or have already voted. Democrats led by four percentage points. Forty seven percent to forty three percent-
that's a slightly smaller edge for Democrats than other public poles conducted in the immediate run up to the election, but it fits
an overall trend of modest tightening on the general ballot. Now this is interesting asked to predict the results of the mid term. Voters are split, thirty five percent say to think Democrats will,
house and the same percentage picked Republicans to keep the majority but more voters. Forty six percent expect Republicans to keep control of the Senate to reiterate most people,
Dont know who is going to win the house, but most people think Republicans will keep control of the Senate. This is not good for Democrats, but now, let's talk about why, I think the poles are wrong. Even Nate Silver famous predictor says the dams could retake the house, or not both extremely possible he's been walking back
predictions a little bit for the past couple weeks. Five thirty eight election, forecaster Nate Silver, said Sunday that the house could end up in democratic or a publican hands into his days election, though pulling predicts that Democrats will flip the chamber. So in the house we have Democrats with about four and five chance of winning Silver told ABC this week. However, he noted that poles
aren't always right. The range of outcomes in the house is really why he explained our range, which covers. Eighty percent of outcomes goes from on the low and about fifteen democratic pick. Ups, all the way to the low to mid fifty. Fifty two, fifty three most
that was our under twenty three, which is how many seeds they would need to win to take the house, but no one should be surprised if they only when nineteenth
and no one should be surprised if they went fifty one seats, silver added. Those are both extremely possible based on how accurate poles are in the real world. How act
Let the poles are in the real world and interesting statement when you consider that there is a margin of error. In many poles, some as high as five percent and if the races our
Dreamily close within five percent. That's a coin toss as far as I'm concerned, and you also to think about the pulling methodology since
sixteen people and scratching their heads as to how they got it so wrong. It's not just about the poles. Some poll showed Donald Trump was ahead, but the predictions were just so off giving Hillary Clinton ninety percent chance of winning. Whether given the Democrats an eighty five percent chance of taking the house, I just don't believe it and that's looked pew internet research from the time of year.
To ask why, after Donald Trump won, the election pew ran this article asking why the predictions were off, and I think this paragraph is the right answer. They say one likely culprit is what
Austria's refer to as non response bias. This occurs when certain kinds of people systematically do not respond to surveys, despite equal opportunity, outreach to all
parts of the electorate, we know that some groups, including the less educated voters who are a key demographic for tromp on election day, are consistently hard for pollsters to reach. It is possible at the frustration and anti into
feelings that drove the Trump campaign? It may also have aligned with an unwillingness to respond to poles. The result would be a strongly pro trump segment of the population that simply did not show up in the polls in proportion to their actual share of the population.
Keep in mind. People who systematically do not respond
surveys I want you remember this word and they also say consistent.
Hard for pollsters to reach. If that is true, why
I should we assume that these people became easier to reach in the past two years. Five thirty eight ran this article two days ago
Republicans need a systematic pulling error to win the house, and I found it in
Staying at this language is reflected by Nate Silver, who has been continually trying to hedge has, but because it is his job to make the correct prediction, but he was wrong and twenty sixteen
and that's bad for his credibility. In its article says, if there's a typical pulling air of two to three percentage points and it works and Republicans favour, the house would be a toss up, we might not,
no, the winner for several days as everyone waits for additional male balance to be returned from California. My career is not made, or
Lookin by being wrong in my predictions, it's just my opinion and my opinion now is that even if they're not wrong, there is still a decent chance. Republicans keep control of the House and the Senate, and I think they are wrong because again, looking at pew, they say the
People are hard to reach. We know less educated, Highschool, educated, Non college, educated people voted for Donald Trump and in a large amount, and that means
You can't pull these people and you only need a tube to three percent shift for the Republicans to actually when I think it's fair to say that we are looking at toss up territory,
and, if that's true, why should I believe you are going to win when twenty sixteen showed Donald Trump actually won, but made silver,
does bring up some good points as to why the Democrats do have a good chance to when he says. Why is it so hard for
since two, when the house, without a systematic paulinus, the show.
The answer is because their defending too much territory, the House playing field is exceptionally broad this year because of republican retirements, an influx of democratic cash. Another fact,
the decisive race won't necessarily be in a toss up district. It could very easily be in a likely republican district where a GEO paean comment is caught, sleeping at the wheel, perhaps a district where there hasn't been much Poland, but I'd like to counter that with the obvious what if it goes another direction, what if the Democrats are caught sleeping at the wheel? In that case, I think, is
argument is kind of mood and we can look to the failures of pulling and twenty sixteen to say why they're probably not correct again now look, I could be wrong for sure,
and as it is, as I said earlier to me, it doesn't matter if I'm wrong, you know people don't come to my ear.
Channel because they think I'm gonna predict the future and help them with their lottery tickets or help them when it comes to where they should hedge their bets. They come for the most part to hear me
pregnant and hear about news issues, but I do think the Republicans are probably gonna control everything because
appalling was wrong in twenty sixteen and I think the reason it was wrong is because the people I met at these trump rallies were not your typical voter. I asked many many people at dozens of Trump rallies. Why did you vote for the president? Who did you vote for before? Most people told me they never voted before and to me that was interesting and many people said they were independence.
Many people told me they used to be Democrats. Let us no surprise that truck carried Ohio in Michigan because he got the white Working Class and he got people riled up who didn't vote before, and this is a huge talking point, twenty, sixteen that certain areas, the country
we're not considered left or right, red or blue started lighting up in support of trump. Why would that change now with the economy doing better than ever with a huge jobs report with unemployment at an all time low? Why would trumped support? Go down
now? It's true Republicans are defending more territory, and this could be why the Democrats sweep and don't forget with Trump winning there was.
On the face of many people on the left and there certainly more riled up now than ever? Early voting is record high, and it's not just that people have been struggling to get the youth vote out forever and their support these redeem.
Was stupid, ads and have celebrity say things like a rock the vote. None of it matters to young people. Young people want a mission. They want to do something that will be part of something
and so what is happening now is you have the resistance movement? You have a trump movement and people are coming out. Young people are coming out in huge record numbers, and people are shocked to see. Now. Young people tend to vote Democrat, and this could be a defining factor in why the Republicans actually lose them.
But we have to go on so far. Is the poles and early voting data. We can look at primary data to right now. The republic
have a lead when it comes to early voting. They do and Democrats in the polls have a smaller. But who knows, what's going to happen? Come tomorrow,
Nobody does and that's what makes it so damn exciting. Now look my predictions worth squat, I'm just looking at online engage
I'm looking at. How on Facebook conservatives
something like five to ten times more likely to engage with continent share content? Why don't we
same engagement from the left among the GEO, P attack ass, these videos of left wing violence and the slogans? Jobs? Not mobs
these are things I do not see among the left. Where is left wing democratic leadership rising up people across the country? We ve seen Obama and pay
days, but tromp has been doing this non. Stop the means have been pouring out nonstop, and if this really is a referendum on Donald Trump, then I think we should look at trumps favour ability as reflection of what might happen when Trump was elected,
around November nineteen. Sixteen his favour ability was thirty, seven point: five. He won the presidency and its favour. Ability was, at thirty seven point: five percent. Today, it's at forty one point: eight percent, his favour ability is higher today,
Then, when he got elected, why, then, should I assume your pulling data has fixed itself. You are suddenly
able to reach those who were unreachable in the past and whose systematically avoid pollsters. Why did that change? I don't see a good reason to believe it
and then, when you see that tromp is actually doing is more favourable now I only say
is gained support so again, a presidential election, very, very different from
he's ground level, smaller districts, but we're talking about a culture war. We're talking about the Democrats versus the Republicans, and this could be a huge factor in what rallies people to vote. Many people are posting straight red ticket vote straight red vote straight Blue. It's not necessarily about the individual
Nowadays it's about left versus right, it's about red versus blue and I'm sure many people are going to vote simply based on their tribe. I think tribalism is playing a bigger role than any policy position. That's why I think we ve seen such powerful attack adds especially from the GNP pointing out antiphon leftwing violence, jobs, not mobs. These slogans, in my opinion, will work, but again
I could be wrong. So let me note, you think the commons below keep the conversation going. The mid term is tomorrow. Yes, I'm going to vote. No, I'm not gonna. Tell you who I am voting for. I think most people can make it an assumption, based on some of the tweets I've made, and the fact that I live in New Jersey thinks fairly obvious who can be voting for, but I'd look. You have to go on vote if you're a Democrat, don't trust the poles. You need to go and vote if you're, a Republican, do not trust the poles. You need to go vote. Poles have failed us. We have no idea. What's gonna happen, my bet, I would make a big, but I wouldn't put more than a hundred bucks down and it's kind of a lot of money. Maybe I'll put twenty bucks down bent and I'm speaking metaphorically obviously, but I'm saying like I wouldn't make a huge bet on the Republicans. Take the house, but it made a small one- will call the gentleman's but no real money exchange. Our people to yell at me give me a strike on much and I think I think
There are public, insecure and take it, but I'm completely open to being wrong as well. So can you come at below? Let me note you think tomorrow's the big day and will see what happens so you can follow me on Twitter. Tim cast stay tuned new videos every day at four p m on this channel and I've got more. Videos
up on my second channel Youtube outcomes, lashed him CAS news at six p m, but wait also on this channel, I'm going to be doing a live stream with a left wing journalists to talk about who I should be voting for it because I'm still pretty undecided, don't get me wrong and we'll have a conversation, and I think this is a much needed conversation, because many people on the left, in my opinion, dont, engage in the discussion and dont present their argument.
In a calm, reasonable manner. So, anyway, stick around for that and I'll see you tonight at seven and also my second channel Youtube com slashed him cast news at six. P M
Transcript generated on 2020-05-09.