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- Human organs 3D printed in outer space
- Mail in ballot fraud and Twitter fact-checking
- Unintended potential consequence of Twitter fact-checking
- George Floyd’s death is a unifying event
- 100,000 US deaths from coronavirus
- eBikes are great!
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The post Episode 1001 Scott Adams: Twitter Fact-Checking, Ballot Harvesting Malarkey, The Poorly Educated, The Future of Space appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Bump bump bump on twelve October pay a very good start for the evening. Addition that I like go. No coffee was got atoms because it's much relate yeah and today we have won the best evenings ever of all time. Things are starting to look great everywhere in the world. Let me tell you about it all the Good NEWS that stuff yeah. Well, we had a sort of launch Interruptus today, where you're watching the with excitement as we're gonna watch. The Elon Musk rocket take off course NASA's involved that they're. Not, though does library so called Elon Musk Rocket,
I was so excited to that, were you I was worried, I gotta say not totally feeling safe but
I was really excited about now, apparently, is postponed until were till salary, but years.
I don't think I ever realise this before, because now it seems much more real. I'm in the fact that there are actually people in the capital and they're gonna time to send them up there now
is more real and I don't know if you realize this, but the alarm mask is gonna, be the riches person in the universe, because I don't know what space access worth now learn sheriff.
But there's a few things that I didn't know about space and one of them is, can be really profitable.
Like a really really really profitable, like nothing on earth, has ever been profitable. Apparently all you have to do is land on one. Asteroids are mining the rare materials and you ve got like a trillion dollars per asteroids. So there there's a lot of money just floating around at their feet. Get to it then. The other thing I heard today, I don't know the details, but sounds really exciting. I think it was might have been Dana, pre no show, but I saw somewhere. There was an expert but about another show saying that one of the benefits
of being able to get into space. Is that apparently three d, printers work really well in space, so well that you can even three deeper in human organs as long as you're in space today
No, that way that came out of nowhere like world. Are you telling me that all you needed was to be away from gravity and you solve the problems of printing human organs? Now I gotta think there's more to it, but there was at least somebody willing to say that on television I thought, while there is a lot of money up there and space so kind, it makes sense that the basis is trying to do something. You must try to do something because whoever guess this space first with an actual business model and the ability to do multiple, trips and stuff we're talking multi trillions of dollars and network
kind of money that you never ever see on earth. So that's fine and I have to tell you that I tweeted before before I knew his gloomy scrubbed. I tweeted that the stock market will probably follow the direction of the rocket. In other words, if the rocket successfully launched everything goes well,
the stock market, just gonna feel the animal spirits. If you will know that, that's a phrase used for economies,
because the companies operate on how you feel about stuff? Literally, the animal will not literally figure urgently the animal spirits and I don't think it could be anything better for the these psyche of the american public than the launch some people into space and get a right. That would
they really really exciting? So if we get this right over the weekend, I would want to own stock. On Monday I dont give financial advice that was now financial advice. More like a protection can act as a good enough to stay at all, because I think you can predict where the stock markets going as long as you don't advise people to do anything about it. I dont advise you to do anything about it because nobody's gonna predicting the stock market ensues. You think somebody is
that's when you lose all your money. I continue to be impressed at what I see as a creative explosion. You see you to write their the the amount of creativity that people are generating because they had time to rethink everything from scratch is really amazing.
Most of you know, I started a community on the locals platform brand. Putting a lot of my stuff that you don't see here.
So everything that I I do this non Dover and maybe some Dover stuff will be over there, but I wouldn't have done that. I just I was thinking about it. I prodigies wonder of executed if life and just goin on, but once I could recent everything- and I was faced with the the end of my career as well and I gotta say, is very motivating in a creative way. You know you're not choose the path it just. It just opens up all your creative energy. I probably have more more creative output in the last two months.
Than any time in my life, so it's been tremendous for me. I think other people having the same experience so you can find by their stuff at locals, locals dot com, and you can find linked to that right at the top of my twitter profile.
So there are a number of businesses there doing great. I just read there,
Ray sales are doing great. What so
whereby nerve is presumably poor thing
less about flying, I'm guessing. So
I are doing great everybody in the delivery businesses doing great zoo,
the online cover saying MR engraved there's a whole bunch of tell a health businesses that are doing great. Alot of people do great. So I have a really good feeling about the recovery of the stock about the twitter effect checking the big story. Today you are following their right. The twitter effect checking so the present president, we tweeted,
to the effect that mail in voting would would invite a lot of fraud. Twitters fact checkers in a new programme decided to label that as something new to effect checked when they affect checked it as not true. Now there are few problems with that. You might see them right away. One of them is that it is true, so if you're very first fact check on the president, you didn't even get a right, because it is true is obviously true. Now you can argue the extent of it. You could say,
is not enough to make a difference. Thou be larger, you could say, is no worse than the current system, which has its own problems. That would be an argument you could say is not perfect, but we have ways to fix it. I think we'll be all right. That would be a good argument, but you know it's not a good argument,
The mail in both the male imbalances are now subject to fraud, really really because
no evil super genius criminal, but even I can think of a few ways like a game that system, if you can think of six ways the game, theirs
you're, not even dry, and so I asked this provocative and perhaps a philosophical question goes like this. If you give your mail enveloped to someone else, Lucy give it your friend to mail it for you and you don't watch the mail. It did you vote now. Your first impression is whack, as my friend would obviously mail it. So I voted you stop being so clever angels,
soon available there near just you just try to find something nothing I am. I am I because here's the way I see it. Your friend has both his own ballot and your ballot and is working.
Mailbox, your friend knows who you voted for its your friend here for
and those who voted for sure, there's some people
I don't know whether friend voted for, but mostly your friend
those who voted for, even if it's not with able,
before they know you voted for, certainly for present.
So your friend has its own ballot.
Your ballot in his hand and nobody's watching and there's the mailbox to mail them? Your friend guess the vote twice once when your friend puts his own,
Into the mail and the second time wanting to size yes or no, to put your vote in the mail, because your friend gets a second vote, you think you voted, but you didn't unless your friend decides that your vote is the way your friend wants to go for, whatever reason, maybe they just like fairness
and they don't ruin the system. But the point is in a very real practical way. You didn't vote your friend voted twice on the wrong issues, whether things you have to think about for a little while.
So, as you might imagine, twitters getting quainter beneficial
back, the president is saying that he is given
Subject of an executive order about the social media companies, I can imagine what that would be. Facebook already said that they don't want to be in the business.
Backtracking anything so now I don't want it
Second order is, there will be much jabbering about what is legal and what is not. The president will be called the dictator dictator because he's ignoring the constitution.
That's what his critics already saying and then other people say exactly how're. You monitor,
a regulate them. Don't you need Congress? Can you can you just make the FCC do something? Currently, that's not set ups
easy thing to do so. We don't know what this year will be unless I'm sorry to come out while I'm talking but here's, what I think could be an dungeon to unintended consequence of the twitter fact checking.
Are you ready for this? Here's some unintended potential consequences. Number one I'd out of the system will stay the same. So the first part of this prediction is that Twitter's, the other first attempt at effect, sort of the fact checking banner. I'm sure it's not going to stay the same.
In other words, that sort of a navy attesting testing situation. They tried something. They got a lot to push back.
Surely there will try something else and probably pretty quickly,
here's. What I would assume will be the way the shakeout I think they're going to have to somehow in the interface make it possible to see the other side, so I think they can get away with doing a fact. Jack. The says suspect is not true. If they're all so prominently and prominently, is the part that's important right, it's got to be equally prominent to say it hears the counter argument. If they show
arguments? Are you happier or are you less happy? I know you can say you to say,
Doesn't work cuz, that's a lot like when the fake news will run a story for a weakens. The biggest headline million
we'll see it and then they when they recanted later, and they say we got a wrong. Nobody sees retraction soothsaying
Let's go into one of those situations where year on paper they showed.
Sides, but really is them the fact check banner the people are gonna notice. That's the part, though, remember not some other little thing this as you to look at the other argument, but here here's the unintended consequence.
Let me ask you this conservatives: do they usually see both sides of the argument? They do
Conservatives and Republicans usually see what the mainstream media saying does ubiquitous chemisette.
Then they also see what Fox news and bright barred and anybody that they think is on the right to say so
conservatives are not gonna, be seeing new information
and I'm generalizing right. Every person is different, but I didn't make a generalization
that conservatives want to see anything new because they already saw both sides. But do you know why be happening somewhere accident
someone accidentally we're gonna end
in a place where the laugh is gonna be exposed to the entire argument for the first time now it it hasn't happened yet and in fact, you're saying the opposite, which is just one side. The fact checking, but I dont think that their situation,
last, so I think you're gonna have to see something that ultimately give some appreciation that there's another argument. Even if even if it's not the one, the twitter thinks is correct, and once those
Both arguments are in the same place. It will be the first time
now there is an app the doesn't. I think, its ground news, there's an app issues, both sides and ribbons tells you were where everybody is on the spectrums you can tell if so left, source or resources.
And between so it exists, but it doesn't exist and the scale of twitter. So if twitter started showing both sides of arguing
What would that, due to the entire half of the country, who I call the poorly educated beyond, regardless of whether they want to college or college who went to or anything else,
there are poorly educated because they only half the news. They don't see the conservative half, which explains what their missing.
So one of the unintended completely unpredictable outcomes of this twitter thing is that after the year, the tension in the fighting in the back and forth is done might have way better information for the people and left, which would be very good for the people and right.
Because it's the first time that their arguments will be seen. So don't assume known assume this is heading for a bad place. He could it could easily have.
About place right is there the hundred ways you can think of? There were all go off. The trail, yelled go off the tracks and we wouldn't have anything like free speech and just get worse and worse. You can imagine that, but I think far more likely that there will be a natural incoming inclination just a correct, and I think you do this. You see something good commandment, but wait was
of course the country is all worked up as they should be about this horrible
video of the police, killing
the african american gentlemen, by putting the knee on his neck canoes complaining yonder story, but here's the thing. Can anybody tell me the statistics of how many police killed white people and in
I've stopped because I can I need to know that they have an opinion that is worth anything because if you don't know that fact do you know anything because to me
that is the difference between the other. A police training pro problem
or the other races problem, that's kind of the big dividing line right through the there has to be a statistic says: the police killed x, number away people.
And this money stops here. You'd, probably one another number, but also the percentage who got killed when they got to stop for some other reason. Now
if that number is zero. While I got some real questions about the police know, you got a lot of questions if they don't kill any
body else. Now you have a lot of questions about the boys you oughta. That would be worst case scenario, but suppose- and I don't know what this does is exhausted and that's my point.
Somebody says a sixty one year old White man shot dead by state troopers four miles from my house yesterday. After me,
careful with all the anecdote I'll stop because he was the armed was coming at the police. You just don't know, but the point is the point is: if you don't know that, I don't think you should have an opinion
Do you think you should? Obviously you can have an opinion on this specific situation? You could certainly have an opinion on that. You know what there's nobody who thinks of that?
well, but can you have an opinion about the policemen
racist or not whether there
the problem or a more just a police problem? Can you have an opinion?
That means anything without knowing how many of the other ethnicities or are having the same problem and is this bad? Is it the same? Just don't know just don't know, I'd like to know that
But I would note that, while we're looking for all the bad news, because that's what we do,
you know we're arose looking for the bad news, the bad news and so were watching this tragedy, and we were, we think there were divided and there's this gigantic illusion happening in which there is no division whatsoever, there's no division whatsoever,
I don't think the country has ever been more unified on one story. Then.
Frazier. Every way, person, brown, bosom black person.
Who says I value has exactly the same for an opinion about every police officer who looks at that has a pretty similar opinion, although actually they may, they may seem a little bit crazy. They know more about processes and stuff, so I'll. Take that back,
the police, would have their own different opinion, but I don't think, there's a white or black different sellers. Do you see it? He what
Let me speak as a representative, very white person, meaning mean look as wide as you possibly look.
No way person has come to me privately publicly or in any way and said anything.
Other than what I just said, which is this is horrible. Those police need to. They need to answer this,
I must say only on the other side. So why
Are we not treating this like a
unifying event it's a tragedy. We all get there.
But it is a unifying event. It's a unifying event.
There's nobody on the other side. How do we not see that
I was as invisible to us all is the most unifying.
This happened a long time that wasn't called the ground of ours. So.
We can find bad news everywhere. I mean obviously the tragedy itself. Self is horrible news,
but the way were responding to it as a society. I think you should be proud of. I think you should be proud of. It is my opinion,
so a hundred thousand people were dead from the current virus or the United States alone. Fifty nine hundred and thirty five of them died today on average, since, since it started getting bad last month, nine hundred a day had been.
Less rounded off two thousand per day if we ve got a hundred thousand now
What would it look like,
today's will say at the end of August, if his days in a thousand a day
Well I'll be a hundred and ninety thousand dead, and that's just August we're not even talking about the potential second way. Is that May or may not happen. Doctors have cheese him and says it's not guaranteed,
but something to worry about our we usually get across to under two thousand or or does it obviously, ninety thousand? If it's ninety days at a thousand a day, somebody says, and you believe, flew deaths. The districts know if you're new. I do
I believe lewd death statistics, meaning I dont believe the irregular flew statistics, because I know
Anybody died of the regular flu. I just don't believe I don't believe fifty thousand people a year are dying of the regular flu and there was a doctor who looked into it. I talked about this in a different periscope and apparently they don't count.
They're not counted so with actual, don't know how many people have died of the regular flew they do. They do like a statistical things. A looks like the extra people dying this during the sluices. Insolence Muslim flew death, but we don't know so he says, checked the curve. Scott you're misinformed check the curve.
What I don't know it's topic you're talking about. Are you saying that it won't be a thousand a day, because my understanding is that were managing the curved flatness, because it's unlikely that opening up everything is also going to make the curve go down much, but we're
trying to make it not no opera. So if we're managing evidence they flat out about
thousand a day. I do we not get two two hundred thousand des sometime into September, nursing home crisis. Somebody says yeah. It could be that the nursing homes are not part of the daily death toll anymore, because now we have the nursing homes kind of under control. Now somebody says three million dead and you S by November think so justly and we still have seen the net heavily now. This is a good time for everybody who made predictions about the corona virus to Canada check their work. So so, let's do that the the thing I think I got the most wrong on the current of our situation is
we on when we did the initial shut down to the economy, and I told you to go to be no big deal because you could easily shut down the economy for a month and we get right back to work and I thought well, maybe it's gonna be six weeks, but still get back to work.
But I didn't see how long it would be. So I didn't. I did not anticipate that they would that they would keep extending them. So I would say that my predictions on a quick recovery from a shutdown we're completely wrong because I extended
extending the time. So I was wrong about that. My my estimate of the death toll was based on the fact that we would human ingenuity would come up with some solutions fairly quickly and that the net, the people who didn't I,
Accidents and other things would end up somewhat compensating for the people who died of the corona virus and that we wouldn't lose that many people met and I actually said five thousand net. Now we don't northern areas, but if it's on
thousand promoter virus, it's probably fifty thousand net, at least so.
My number would be way off by a factor of ten, and I might still be the closest estimate weirdly enough, even even that far off and I'd also predicted that the suicide rate would actually drop under the assumption that we're locked down for only a month or so, but of course the longer we go. That would reverse so my prediction was based on a shorter locked
all right. There's somebody saying that these central park dog stories are coming in kids to boy now there there's something completely different about that. We don't know. I wouldn't be surprised.
Yeah Minnesota's get fires and looting, so there's not going well. So the the five thousand net ass was based on the assumption that there were a whole bunch of other deaths. There will be avoiding so that the gross I said would be fifty thousand
So, but but even as bad as Myerson was it's gonna be closer than most exports. I think when it comes out, I read your book behind. You fell.
That happened on camera did happen, while you were looking terrorism, Biden, jobs and have any good Biden jokes, but I will tell you about the future. Would you like here about the future.
Two things. There's a place called the Faroe Islands. I never heard of M F R, o ye, I guess as a tourist destination. I have no idea where
but I just so website where they're giving remote tours with a local. So though
I don't know exactly how to do it. I think they put a camera on some local persons head and then you can control Regos
so you can actually send the local
Working on the island and looking round and looking at the sides and you just sort of control or the local goes like a human robot or something,
I don't know the details, but I thought was funny and creative, so my prediction is always been that you'll be able to take a vacation by operating a drone in a place. You want to see some other words. If you say I'd like to see the great wall of China someday you'll be able to go into website and just log onto a drone.
And you'll just feel the control, your own drown. You just take it up and look around on your screen and take a look at the great wall of China. I know, maybe maybe China's the last place that would allow that
But the point is, I think people will be taking remote. Virtual vacations were really just sizing out of occasion by a drone that they operate from where there are things of late and see problems, and if that doesn't work, here's the other part of the future that I guarantee you is common. So, during the lock down, I want to buy myself a new bicycle and I thought
look at those new electronic bicycles, they ve got a battery this built in to the bike, and you start to paddle. But the battery gives you a little boost on hills,
and I'd read a little bit about a man. They sounded interesting. I thought I will look into this electronic bicycles situation, so I M
getting one. Here's how long it took me to make the decision the biased
go shop guy and of course it was all grown virus rules, and this couple weeks ago, it's all good.
so I'm the only one in the shop, a bigger figure one and you let me take you for a test drive in the parking lot. So I take this back into the parking lot. I do a circle and I come back and I say I got to ask you one question: is anybody ever taken a test drive on an EU bike and not purchased it and he laughed he laughed and he said, there's something called the e bike. Smile which she said he couldn't see with,
excited my mask for the time he goes. The people who do the test drive on the bike when they come back. Their smile is wrapped around their head. Now I gotta tell you you don't quite understand how far this is. If you ve never read one, if you ve never written one hold you
Can I ask you that, can I ask you if you haven't written one justice,
as I did at the? U dont, understand it. Please assume that closer something really cool common there's, something really cool
so here's here's the deal Simon rightness around the fur like has a couple weeks.
And the one thing that happens every single time. My attitude just completely transformed my attitude just goes into positivity and I feel great, I feel free just everything. It's amazing. The feel you get is not the feeling of a motorcycle. It's not the feeling of a bicycle.
Those are both good right. People like bicycles, their great people like motorcycles, their terrific. This is better. This is better
I've I've had a motorcycle. I know a motorcycle feels years. Why spend a motors
is a little bit boring and scary at the same time
You're going down the freeway on your motorcycle, you should they allege here, not normal print
you're afraid of something out of your control, killing you at any moment. Never
really goes away when you're on motorcycle, unless maybe does for some people, but never did for me at the same time is also fun
there's not much, you can do you don't have a lot of freedom or you can you get a bay, the laws cetera and the others big help, and on this we are coming
all had soon. I really even outdoors basically.
And then a bicycle of course is wonderful, but if he had loved
Hills of I live where there are lava hills, since it limits where you can and cannot do with the with the electric bike. I've only charged it charge it. Maybe once a week once,
lake and you can go up any hill easily. You start to peddle, so you always have a feeling of control, but here's the fun part
these sensation you have is that your super strong and yes, the price was just about what you're getting at me in the comments and so is very expensive. Now the the batteries, here's the other, is the part that tells you
The future looks like you can go for ever on this. You actually will just sort of never get tired. You just rider forever pills down hills, so distance just goes way. The other thing is that the quality of the batteries is improving all the time, so the prices going down the powers going up. I guarantee you that the future is small personal vehicles. Now I dont know that this egg way is quite the form that people are gonna want causes
sort of bulky and he can't ride on the sidewalk carried out on the street too easily. Just doesn't belong anywhere, but bicycles belong everywhere. I can take my bicycle everywhere. I can take it in my house. If I don't want to be stolen,
there's no place, I can go with my bicycle. So.
Less by my prediction to you is that these electronic assist vehicles will be they bikes or trikes. Who knows what they will be? The really gonna be big caused great they're just great,
And also, as I was saying before, it makes you question the subjective nature of reality, because because if every time I mama I'm happy began, it tells me that is not my life that
made me unhappy in the first place as s how heavy it is. First of all,
the battery is easy to remove just comes right off, but you one person can lift it and put it in the back of it as you ve, its is heavier than irregular by.
You, wouldn't want to do a lot of baking without the lecture, the cistern down, it's a track to our UK,
Does it feel unreal yeah does it does it feels like here in a dream and is a good one, because your super strong,
And not everybody knows this and a bike because it doesn't. If you look at it, you wouldn't know it. Just now.
A little bit fatter bar one of the main superboss, a little fat or because the battery and set so there are tons of bikes people walk around where I live?
So I like to peddle fast up, really steep hills and make people think I'm strong. It never gets old, good breaks here, the brake survive.
It's actually is actually really Wellman piece of machinery.
Can you write it and rain? Yes, apparently you can write it in the pouring rain without any risk whatsoever poured into the cells person and the battery is enclosed and doesn't get. Where do I go biking with Christina now, yet chatter talker into?
Biking is one of those things that it's a lie.
A bit better alone. Don't you think, because part of what makes a bicycle so much fun is the freedom of it.
Literally when I'm writing round my neighborhood, I just say to myself:
this way just go left and look at the new neighbourhood.
If you're writing with somebody here, you started trying to communicate with them at least a little bit and riot and it's sort of doesnt doesn't mix as well, yet biking Persian moon. Every time somebody says sky should go opera on us tonight I mean like there's a electric bike, and here you and your seat
what model is it? I forget the model: that's over now
So here s the Good NEWS is,
social media is gonna get better, your economy is getting better. Electronic spikes are gonna, be
everywhere and you're gonna love them. That's the Good NEWS
Oh good news from here on out can be a great summer gray summer and yes, we did set a new heading date, but we're not telling you wanted it.
But they get married resume bread pretty soon, very small. We will not be violating any any any regulations, and I will talk to you in the morning.
Transcript generated on 2020-06-26.