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- Special Guest Bjorn Lomborg on his new book False Alarm
- Why the Green New Deal is racist
- Safety suggestions for reopening schools
- Ivanka Trump’s alternative career paths
- Professional non-fiction writers with limited talent stacks
- The data analysis mistake that caused all the protests
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The post Episode 1058 Scott Adams PART2: Talking With Bjorn Lomborg About His Book False Alarm, Plus Ridiculous News appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
You ve signed up for it, but teachers did not sign up for that risk. It is completely unreasonable, completely unfair for the rest of the public to try to force them back to work into a situation that at least half of them think it's too dangerous. Given the costs and benefits, here's what I would suggest as a
worker out ready the benefit of a teacher in the room as opposed to remote teaching, is that it is just a first ass, a way to get the kids out of the house so that
a risk and go to work so others certainly a child you watching process. They you, you need a physical school for. Secondly, you need to handle things and discipline, people and say stop
doing that etc. Here is my hybrid solution that the that the teacher only appears remotely if they prefer, let's say the older teachers, don't wanna take the risk they can prefer. They can appear other television remotely to their class,
but you would have a much younger person. Let's say a college age tat, a person who is the.
In class manager. If you will.
So. I put my name on it because they're not teaching the
young person, who is the physical presence and the authority in the room would simply be a manager of the situation, but the teaching was still comes.
The teacher, who would be a big old tv screen right in front of the class they could still.
The teacher, the teacher can still see the class anything physical that needed to be done can be,
done by the younger, less risky personal sillier now or how about. Let me give you another suggestion. Let's say you build a separate entrances and x,
it's, an bathrooms for teachers, so they have a situation where the teacher is just behind Plexiglas doll type, just behind plexiglas,
And you never actually are physically could touch a teacher. You couldn't even get close to them. If you to do, does the teachers in the front of the class others just a big plexiglas thing here.
Can get there if they wanted to date, only black sea glass, if you have enough space from the first row of desks to the teacher I mean it could be just offence so that nobody gets close, but you can probably figure
ways around their one of the things I heard is that it's impossible to open up the schools with social distancing, in other words, that the desks being six feet apart. There's this done a physical space. I would share
that assumption, because I think that in an emergency situation you would use all of the space you might later. You not use the Jim for Jim Class because maybe stood
He just avid inside Jim Class, anyway,
say my use of the the gym florry my use some of the cavity of floor and Wallace Warm you make people eat outdoors. You probably want to do that anyway. So probably, you could get pretty close now. Some students, by what is still stay home and they could just tune in digital age, is like anybody else has. So I think that the president's instinct to push towards reopening is
the only correct if you take all the pluses and minuses of the economy etc into consideration, but you have to protect the teachers. You have to protect the dangers that is completely unreasonable to send them back into this virus at peace,
I did not support that. So if we don't ever solution that the teacher
you're, ok with I say: don't do it keeps a guess I'll be
you can try harder. If, if your district doesn't figured out a way to keep the teachers safe, they should boycott or
strikers at them and I would be on their side because we do have enough ways to keep them safe.
If we're not use it, then they should go to work closely opinion
we do want of solvent so bad that, though, so a vodka trump is not getting enough attention. In my opinion, for her alter,
they career path, effort, so she's work in a deal on all the details by think she's working with big corporations to tried it
even higher people who do have college degrees. So there you go
say well like I want to learn the specialty. I don't need an english degree to do this job, but it's this corporation will teach me that's a good solution. I think that's one of the best things happen
country right now in terms of it makes sense on every level. It is just so obviously good for you,
minority people is obviously good for low income. People is obviously goes ready.
He doesn't want a college that this just one of the best things are happening in the country if it gets a little bit of courage and then people market, because it's a vulgar right.
I mean it's it's a crazy world when the best things are ignored. Joe Biden had one of the most classic gas I've ever heard, and this one are, you didn't even start,
the correct it he said in a sentence, we have to get our kids back to school and then he sat in the same sentence. We have to get our kids to market swiftly. We have to get our kids to market swiftly and he didn't even stopped corrected. Just went out what what are you kidding? Are you kidding so just add that the list now again I remind you that the hilariously to me is watching Democrat.
ACT like there's nothing wrong with, but I was in the earlier. Miss speaks louder than but another. Of course. The larger context is the wayfare. Rumours are you.
Where are those are the most ridiculous, fake news or fate? I guess it's a rumours that news
the actual newest people are not covering this, because it's not true, which is strange for the news. Does this: usually they cover things, whether their true that
But in this case I would agree with them not cover get elite tea room,
we're on the internet. Does that the big company wayfare the cells furniture is a gigantic entity? Is Ben secretly using their the pages other website to sell children instead of products. A cat could stop. There
and you say: ok that doesn't sound true you'd- be right because wayfare
not really selling children. But people have these fake pages live gather argument
says, uses children's names on the products and has a price that doesn't make sense uttered off their photoshopped mistakes or what? But what I can tell you with complete confidence.
Wayfare is not selling children. There not sell your children, but in the context of these wayfare rumours which were all over the internet,
as I said, wayfare isn't doing anything. That is another. That's true is ridiculous,
If I were over this, you should never listened to me again.
If I'm wrong about this wayfare thing being ridiculously stupid that true, if the terms
Rob never listened to the again. That's your deal, you have provision
two never listened to me again, but I'm pretty confident about that. One. I've decided that nonfiction writers of the most dangerous people in the world, because they don't know what they don't know, but they think they know a lot and so the more ice
writers writing stuff, that they don't know what you're talking about their seriously leading the world in the wrong place. If you saw
I'd, be earned. Larboard conversation just tell you know that the
probation that you and I receive about climate change is from writers. Mostly. Does I don't talk to scientists too much? I just
read what is written so really, I'm reading the opinion and the framing from a writer, and it's so dangerously bad and unable to look
because it benefits and incapable analyzing anything? I want to give you an example that well yeah. Ok, I gotta get example that coming up in a Bloomberg opinion, peace, there's a thread on it today that I tweeted, but let us listen to this one, this one sentence:
by an actual professional writer who gets paid by Bloomberg or actually Olaf's opinion peace. Did they get paid out another business while buzz.
Any peace and bluebird said this, and it was that this is one comment in a larger piece about all the the rich people complaining about
careful culture? So this is a peace in favour of council culture, so we can stop right there
you know, you don't even need to know what the writer said
in writing in favour of cancel culture, but maybe you should listen to them. But let me let me read this ridiculous sentence quote: could it be that increasingly diverse voices and rich conversations are a threat to their free speech? Any she talking
the rich people who wrote the there is some thirty some people who signed the document against cancel culture. So that's the context.
Could it be that increasingly diverse voices and rich conversations are a threat to their free speech or, more accurately, the prerogative of the prerogative? I hate thy word the prerogative of famous and powerful people to speak at length and all sorts of things without interruption or disagreement. So this writer
is asking the question if there is really a problem with careful culture? Is there really is Israel
A bad thing: are you rich famous writers, or are you just complaining about it to get
for a space for your own ridiculous comments. Without any counter cupboards now
I'm not even going to tell you what's wrong with this opinion, because it so stupid energy to write.
I'm pretty sure that the people really against Kizil culture do not
play secret agenda of silencing the rich and diverse voices and conversations
I'm pretty sure that zero people have ever had that fallen in their zero zero people on the whole planet, seven billion plus people, not one person- has ever had the thought, because
stupid on that this writer has assigned to them. Could it be that they don't like
whose voices and rich conversations- ah no it could not be. There
and this is somebody's paid Bloomberg actually princess? The amazing
amazing, speaking of writers, writer, very wise buried, be a are a woman's name in this case very was until recently she just quit staff writer editor for the New York Times, and she was it. She describes himself as a centrist and in the world of deer times a centrist beans. Far right, that's that's my own framing, not everything that it.
They'll set and although she does color self a centrist, but that means that she has some, I would say, as a centrist would be somebody who has a little bit of appreciation or empathy for the opinions on the right may not share them all, but would have a little bit more pre.
Patient for them, but also for the left, without necessarily agree with them. So that's my understanding with
somebody's a little bit open to both sides but doesn't necessarily agree with I decided or thinks she she quit
because she said that it was just an unfriendly place to work and that because she was not as left as the other people, I'm paraphrasing. This is not real words that she was. Basically, it was just such a
toxic environment that you just have to get out of there. But here's whatever one of her comments in a lengthy reservation letter which is worth reading is that she said twitter is not on the mast head of the deer tight. But twitter has become its ultimate editor voice said
and she said she goes out of. The stories are chosen and told it away to satisfy the narrowest of audiences rather than to allow a curious public to read about the world and then draw the.
The conclusions and she says I was always thought that journalists were charged with right. The first rough draft of history. Now, history itself is one more ephemeral thing moulded to fit. The needs of a predetermined narrative
well bury the. Firstly, you got wrong is to assume that history was ever objectively written by anybody
his tree is love objective history
threatened by the winners and Yahoo.
I guess you're right about it, so you just raw that, but I love this framing of the in this case the New York Times the most, let's say: prestigious- of all news organs
nations, we might say that even they, according to this insider, who just quit, are basically just parenting twitter. Now,
Who is the first person who told you that influential people on social media are actually the new government? I did
right, so social media has effectively become the new government, because
the media has the parrot social media they have to, but their business small sort of influences of the direction and at once the social media and the media have formed an opinion
The politicians fallen lied. So the politicians debate, as suggested
do idea, but
this sort of up the social media and the public and then Lee and then the
regular media to supported or not, and then the politicians know what freedom they have either go with it or not. And of course, when I say the public supports it or not, I mean there's
so there are only things in our world that are supported by the left. The only thing supported by the right and the future
in the middle, the widow you're much about, because it's not funny
here is more cancellations. Viacom CBS decided to canned what's his name, the cannon because they allege he made anti semitic comments, spot guest and here's a
do you think about it? When I read the comments that he made, I at least based. I didn't hear the details, maybe it's worse, if you here that the whole thing
but just the surface reporting of the things he said. I don't know it just sounds like an opinion to be, it did, does sound like he was.
Intentionally doing anything at thy, and indeed he considers himself back
the words, and even he said this. How can I be?
it s a medic when the whole thing I was saying was that I'm semantic, so you can be.
Tell yourself, and I thought well
You could argue whether he is America, but she can't argue the point that if he includes himself early in the group that use criticising
that is more like criticising your own group is.
Beard hybrid, because who is it the guests to say that again, it is or is not semantic
Yeah he's got some story about black people being the real symmetric people uttered off its true or false, but whether its true or false, or has any historical backing, and I have noted in I don't care
doesn't matter? Doesn't sound right? Doesn't sound right, right,
made, it doesn't sound right, but that doesn't mean it's not right. I just don't have any knowledge or information to argue in one way or the other
because he did not apologise. He get kid and I ask you: should
For insulting your own group, as you see it,
Somebody says it was a white this. What it was could be. I didn't see the details did not see the details and there was something about the Rothschild there that the mixture
I'll go up, what do you say about the Ross because it might be a little kids
Percy Syrian there. So I don't know what he said, but I just note that happened at he didn't apologize and I'm not sure that you should apologise if it's, you actual
Can it do you apologize if it's your opinion and he's still hold it cause that doesn't seem like an apology situation seems like I just seven opinion in somebody didn't like it. So they fired me
I'm not supporting his opinion, not attack it. It's just a weird hybrid that he did not have bad intentions whatsoever. I think I think, can tell what people are thinking really, but it looked like that. I hear something I did, that hasn't got be cancelled and I think that that is hilarious. I,
I tweeted this yesterday. When will you see how much attention they got? I tweeted ass, I said: have you ever seen an engineer, scientist or statistician argue: the police are killing black citizens an alarming rate. Ask yourself: why
how do you see what I did there? Let me explain it cuz. I think you see the general idea, but there's a little bit more to it than natural frame for our conversations about big stuff and the black lives matter.
Of his big stuff are natural afraid is either the left versus the right, or maybe black, verses, white or black versus the black, but are our natural inclination is to just put things in the
this group versus Zachary, which is terribly unproductive and also makes you stupid,
cuz, you're, not really using reason, you just say: well what team am I on? So I guess I support the team for what I did was reframe that, instead of thinking of as black versus non black or left vs right, how about people who know how to look at data vs people without
how about that? That's my frame.
People who are trained to understand data to analyze it versus people who doubt,
As I put this idea at, you would think that I was cancelled immediately from us, but, unlike neck cannon, I think people are afraid of me being afraid to give attention to this point of view, because you know, if you gave attention to the point of view that the black lives matter protests the the primary trigger, not the only topic they have. They have general topics about systemic racism, etc, but the trigger the primary thing the they protests have been about. The George Floyd situation is completely bullshit. It's completely bullshit and I gave myself enough.
Freedom by setting the groundwork in the things that have done up to this point- that I might be the only person in the world, you could say that allowed. Do you know anybody else who signs that the black lives matter the trigger of it amazing racism doesn't exist. I'm not talk about that. The larger questions us another topic, but just the question of police killing black people at it at an oversized alarming about.
Susan True now, when I changed the frame to, why is it that you know early engineers, scientists or statisticians?
being on the same side? Is the black lives better protest? The reason
as these are all the groups and know how to look a data
there's a very simple data analysis mistake which caused all these protests and assess they looked at the percentage of black people killed versus supply such of white people killed
by police. That's just a data analysis error, because when you look at the percentage of black people killed by police
You're not really looking at police violence against black people. What you ve done is you ve accidently studied how many black people commit crimes or haven't you? Black people live in the neighborhood. This a high crime neighborhood you ve accidently, looked at the wrong thing, because police are stopping black citizens at a higher
Why, while most of it because it's the neighborhood, they live in his hire crime,
certainly the theirs
separate issue of whether to many black people are being stopped and pressed the stubborn frisk part is it, I think its own topic, but the correct way look at it is in the total number of stops police encounters. What percentage
them either black people were stopped were killed versus the percentage of white people killed when they were stopped by place. Now that would be the
racked with look at the data and when you do, there's not much difference in fact why people are killed a little bit more often, but does the distantly so so the entire protest
are built on this weird little lie. There can only be supported so low
you'd. You never have the news and engineer a statistician, an economist or what
The third thing, a scientist, somebody who actually knows how to look at data you
I'll never see some.
But he who knows how to look at data talk about this data.
Because it would ruin all day,
as it is. You talked about now what that means, and if you take us to the larger thing,
Compare the issue of black people being killed by police, which
we all agree, we want less of it right, saucers. Anything we can do to beg less of that, above all on board
completely aboard with looking at new ways to do police.
Saying without place. I think that's actually really good path to x
But the only way I would do it is by testing is small, make sure it does it blows up right. So if, if you wanted to replace police
and the way that you wanted to do. It is with some alternate methods- let's Tessa, totally less Tessa, since you happens, but to a small, see a final vote if it works, but here's my issue with the black lives matter- protests over police killing, please killing might be- that might be probably is not probably, as absolutely is, gonna go for full. Certainly, does this mean
All this problem in the black community is the smallest problem. Why are they protesting over their smallest problem? The total number of people killed by police and general Monsieur smallest problem. Do not a big problem about health care for black people in general. About that that's away bigger
health care for black people in general on a scale of one to ten? That's like a tab, if you were to say on a scale of one to ten, where is number of people killed by the place black people killed by the police during? Please stops that's a to one or two other scale of one to ten, just because there are so few people involved how about good
education for black people. You know better education, especially in the inner cities area. Where is that on a scale of one to ten tenth temp? That is ten and if the scale was higher,
It would be higher this not anywhere close to the problem of police killing black people. Do you stopped not even close that once a to education is a temp? What are the Democrats trying to do reduce the ability of black
to get a good education by removing school choice, which is literally the only way to fix it. Nobody
as another idea really deal anyway, so the black population has by- and I think that the illegitimate-
press is largely to blame for this, a a world in which there were concerns, the protests were happening
the weather happening now. But if, u turn
on CNN their say? You know this is actually your smallest problem, statistically, if you're just to look at the numbers. This is by far your smallest problem, because all of the crime etc is coming from the same one thing: you're bad education, others there are questions about family structure etc, which I do not fully understand. What's behind all that I've got a real questions there about you, what is actually exactly behind the number of single parents etc. I'd like to know more about that, but anyway, if the
whose accurately reported things in the size that they should be reported. The protests wouldn't be happening because every every time they turned on the news they be watching their own new source and there
a new source would say: ok, they're working on the smallest problem and ignoring the big once again, and then all the protesters was a while less
any fun. Why are we are working on the smallest problems again,
This was our smallest problem. You didn't know either ok, but that we now consists of both the left and the right new sources, which is usually more dependable. If its report, it both ways,
So, in my opinion, the protests and all that come with it, including the extra kroner virus, if its accuracy that comes out of it, is entirely the illegitimate presses problem. When I told you that not fiction writers are the biggest risk into the
country I need this. This is all nonfiction writers, writing section. I radically the the news. Business is just not fiction writers, that's what they do. They write about faction and if they wrote correctly and if they were good at their job, in other words, if their talent stack included the built the ability to look at data, they would
be putting us in this position, do not they be doing supporting things. It would give black people a better education right does.
Be the top priority, not even close, not even close to any of this other stuff? I am we found out recently that mark live in. You know him from Fox dues and he's got a radio show, I believe and other things and apparently a former Wikipedia Wikipedia editor, and if you know that the model of Wikipedia you have all these volunteer editors. So for every topic you could have multiple editors who had been sort of approved. I guess to build a change legs, but the editors can give him battles, so somebody could Jake change something that
other editor committed change about, but they do have rules about what is right to change and what is not right to change one,
rules is, if you point to a source, then you can keep it like you
reboot something that has a legitimate source. But if you put something in there, this claim without source that another editor can six
get rid of that. But apparently there was this huge battle over Mark Levine's page, which somebody can filling it with
truth and the other editors would try as far as I can describe it out. But again
It was just like a raging multiyear battle in which somebody continued
was smears on there and other people continue to try to get rid of them.
After the word ended up under sure. If it's back to the smear back to God, I accidently talked about that before I there's a tweet. This says that from Doktor Carr vendor cower.
So doktor cower. I think I'm pronouncing right K, a U r, tweeted, that there are fifty three plus published I drugs, the clerk Queen studies, fur covered by ten showing strong efficacy as a prophylaxis as treatment in early covered. So that's the claim. The claim that there are fifty three plus polish studies showing that I dragged clerk clean works and that the government is sort of your blocky from being used and then a topic that doctors Linsky, who most of you know he was the doktor who is using. I drastically clerk queen
with all of his patience in the Ark and claimed much better, much better rate of recovery that other people like much much them so he's one of the leading proponents attire, jocks clerk. We now hear the first thing the firstly he needs now is
I understanding there is no gold standard test of this drug yet so you can fact check me on that, but I don't believe there is any controlled clinical.
Gold standard study using it as a prophylaxis, but their do seem to be. Studies show that if you give it to people,
When there are almost ready to die, it doesn't help much. So we ve seen those
As someone suggested- and I think I have to agree
It has the look of intentional failure.
The studies on Hydroxyl clerk, we look to the untrained. I just
observer, looking like they were designed to fail,
because from day one, the the the potential of the drug was always about giving.
To you early? That was always the claim, but what got tested first, what got tested first is giving people toxic doses.
Then you would ever give somebody when they were at the end of their life and their wishes too late. Now, if you are a good, does design a study to test the cat
than a drug given early as as a preventive prophylactic, or at least
catch things early, if you will get a test, I claim, would you do it by a toxic those given to people who were near death,
You want, but suppose you were a big drug company in order to make sure that people did not think I drugs clerk queen woodwork. What would what kind of study would you fund if you wanted the public to think I do
The clerk wind, which is cheap and widely available, is not the way to go.
Well, if I were a drug company, I would immediately fund a trial that I knew wouldn't work and it would look exactly like the trials that we saw now. This is not I'm not claiming that's what happened.
I don't have any information that was just happened, but I'm saying that if you're looking at it from the outside and you're, even a little bit objective, it looks like doesn't mean it happened, looks like it was designed to get you the roan result. I know it. I know what a trial would look like if somebody's try to get an accurate, good, useful result,
It is the opposite of that right. You see in the comments that you say it sounds like that's exactly what happened we can,
that's what happened, but we can say it looks exactly like so, but I want to make a comment on the landscape as well. He tweeted out recently some data showing the different l comes the death rates for various countries, any had them sorted by weather.
They use, I jocks queen early or they didn't now at the bottom of the list, was the United States where it is not commonly used early ITALY used too late and the death
It was very high and then the one at the top of the list there were using an early and the death rate was very, very low compared to the United States, not in close and be way way difference. And then, as you go down the line
asked you get down to countries that also use hydroxyl color, Queen early
They also have way lower death rate than the United States, so was so far less consisted right to all the people with drugs, clerk wiener having good results. According to the
one chart and the United States isn't is getting bad result, but here's the problem. If you look at the best people using drugs o clock,
Queen compared to the ones who were getting the worst result, but our
also using it in the same way, early there's a gigantic difference. Like a ten times. Difference so even look even the countries that reported Lear using
Molly, there's something like a ten times. Difference in their l Cubs. What does that tell you,
It tells me it's not Hydroxyl clerk wave, but that charge was supposed to tell you that currently, which one of us is right, so doctors, Linsky, obviously knows more about all of this than I do, but the chart that he presented to make his case to me because I spend more time looking at data are used to do for a living, gotta, economics, background etc. But when I look at the data that he presented, it says to me is not thy drugs
it says that if you could ever a ten times difference using it there's something else going up, there is poor.
Probably something that some of these countries having covered beyond that
So that doesn't mean it doesn't work. I just say that I am not convinced you stick with my thirty percent chance. It's a game changer which is
tranches, your thirty percent spray solid chance, but it's
so they have said.
I'm still on the side that if we were to do a controlled clinical style, a gold standard, scientific test that there's two to one chance, you all find it works, but a thirty percent chance you well now. If it turns out,
that it works, will you say that I was wrong? You should not, because you should remember that I just put ads on it and if something goes, the thirty percent waivers
sixty something percent way doesn't mean I'm right or wrong. Does the only thing I could be right or wrong about was assigning the percentages and I've given room for it to go the way. I've talked too much. I've gone to love, so I think already here somebody says you must not bro Bauer
yeah, I see in your cupboards you're asking about weathers ink is included, were not included. I've seen lots of contradictory studies. I see
Studies to say is not the zinc. I ceased
is the say it is like I've seen
the studies the sailor now is not the same as the Azores formations
other studies that both zinc, as is through my son, and I address the clerk Wayne.
Then you say well that worked, but was it the as if my son,
some people say as the active ingredients,
nor was it the zinc or was it? The combination of the two were the combination of the three.
Those are the things we don't know, there's a lot and I will talk to you tomorrow.
Transcript generated on 2020-07-25.