Bump bump bump bump bump bump bump bump bump bump everybody come up here. It's time, Stiver Coffee was got Arabs best part of the day, every single time. What do you need to enjoy coffee was got Adams well, as the name implies coffee or a beverage of your choice, but you ve gotta, put it in something you don't wanna drink it with your hands that's bad form. Instead, you need a cupboard bugger of glass with sustained a contingent of less confessional of any kind, see them on my back shelf there. That's your visual q. Enjoy me now for the dopamine the end of the day, the the thing that makes everything better, just called the simultaneous sip, and it's going to happen.

Right now go. I dare say that was super was Are you a lot of fun stuff to talk about today? I'd like to start by telling you about my dream. No, no, don't turn it off. Yet I know there's nothing more boring the hearing about somebody's dream, but watch how cleverly I fall this into my story, When I was a kid I had a recurring dream in which I could fly. I can actually just floating levitate and fly and Have the stream maybe once a year and was my favorite dream, but there was one catch, even though the dream itself was spectacular because, as I said

I could fly. Imagine a vivid tree where you can have flowed round the house. You could be up at the ceiling and you can go outside and you could flowed over the town it was right There was only one problem with it, and it was this. For whatever reason, my dream always included the following element: other people were not impressed, It was always in the dream. I be Odin literally at the ceiling and I'd say People below me say: hey, do you see this I'm literally flying and people would look up, and then they just continue there. conversations. Let's say I don't think you understand. I am above the ground defying gravity, literally the first human beings. server flown and I'm doing it right in front of you and nobody cared, and they will just go about their business outcome

Are you serious flying I'm flying, look at me. Why can't you see me every year. once a year, and so I was reminded of that dream when I was reading peace by Andrew Mccarthy, in which he says this that, This is just one part of what he said. That is, that clear Clinton meaning Hilary actually did was she accused Trumbo doing she could who did with the Russians through three, that is another foreigners recruited to battle in the twenty. Sixteen presidential campaign, the ludicrous former British by Christopher Steel in order to damage trumps campaign and since the election for so now, I believe that that is so. well documented by the handwritten notes, Et Cetera, coming out of the air and the disclosures that this is just a fact

right and I feel, like injured Mccarthy, is having by flying dream. Right now, he's he's saying: ok, people, it's the biggest story of all time the whole Russia collusion thing literally opposite. It was actually example of Hillary Clinton colluding with Russians to overthrow the legally elected government of the United States. So how about that the people on earth say here, check my stocks, but also other today and then Andrew Mccarthy's has a cat. I don't think you heard me cause. Your reaction is not really matching what I just said. Slowly saving and more clearly, we have no proof, no doubt about it. Proof. they Hillary Clinton, colluded with Russians to overthrow the legally elected government of the United States. Anything does Eddie.

We care seriously. You're just can ignore this. I dont know what to say about it: so mine, bogglingly Mobile Bob. It's exactly like my flying dream! Why kill people pay attention to this? Why is this? like it's happening and not happening at the same time, why is the biggest story of all time. That's not being reported at least leave mainstream media, mind boggling anyway. Moving on I've told you about something I call the atoms loves, slow, moving disasters, and it goes like this. When do you Energy can see a huge problem coming from a lot. Ways away.

We have a hundred percent track record of handling it. For example, we could see far in advance that it would be hard to feed all the people if the population kept growing. But we figured out how to make more food. We we did a pretty good job of it we thought we run out of oil, but we figured out how to frack unhand, find more oil and build solar panels, etc. So looks like will get through it. Likewise, with climate change looks, like is the end of the world. If the scientists, the consensus of them, are right, but I'm pretty confident that we'll figure it out, Workarounds and we'll be fine, but as the time that you have to fix the problem gets compressed. The show a shorter you have well, then it gets a little more uncertain. The more time you have more likely you'll figure it out, but what about voting this year.

The question is whether the voting mechanisms will be secured Willoughby, the mail in voting give us a credit result or non credible result. Will there be so many problems that we can fix it, well we're seeing already a whole bunch of this printed ballots that were scrambling to to fix You see states moving. There are deadlines for when you could ever postmark on your mail and ballot, so you seeing people scrambling to adjust and they eat argue that they might have started a few months ago and they ve. a few more weeks and the work in the probably working around the clock, trying to fix problems and monitor for problems and everything, it's gonna be club It's gonna be close on one hand, I always bear on humans. If there's enough time

On the other hand, if there is not enough time, I bet against humans every time, because humans are not good at doing complicated things correctly. The first try it's almost, not a thing. In fact, when it happens, it becomes the Tougher legends, for example, the first time we actually launched a rocket with the attempt of pudding, somebody on the moon. It worked. that's one of the reasons is such a big deal because it was a really big chance. Buddy work, so that's the one we talk about more than anything else, so. If I had to guess, let me put this positive filter on it. I think the voting will be better than it should have been another words. Think that humanity is really gonna, try to rise to this challenge because the stakes are high And we do have some time? It's not like

hurricane? You know where maybe a few days we had weeks, they should have been enough time to print things. Reprint things check things, scrub databases, as much as possible. So we might be it a little better shape than we thought. So that's my positivity. They're. So yesterday I share with you my conspiracy theory that you shouldn't take too seriously. Kim Jong on show. up on video, not talking, and then several, Do you hear the audio and talking? But you don't see him talk, video, which at least opens up the possibility that you're here body double on video and somebody who can do a good impression on audio, so see then read another piece, Kim Germans, big celebration thing in which he showed up in public and it teased

then it was gonna, show Kim Jong on being emotional during his speech. So I said to myself: I guess that conspiracy theory part, because CNN then is gonna. Show me a clip, Kim Jong on giving your speech, it does look like it's something current and you'll be emotional while he's talking and I'll see him physically, the video here I am talking at the same time and then there's no doubt about right. If you see the emotion you see him talking is he's lying as well, and then they show the clip and they show Kim juggernaut in front of the microphone and he's he's got some tears. Emotional and then I'm waiting for him to talk and they cut away. they don't show I'm talking, I d now ass. That video exists probably exists Because I don't believe my own conspiracy theory, but

it's getting increasingly interesting, that the thing you most expect a video of him talking currently The only thing that I would find completely credible doesn't exist. So that's what's a conspiracy theory, don't take it too seriously. Andreas back else, who keeps be honest on all things, data when you, You're on twitter all day, we need what are you on twitter all day? You see a lot of bad data and address often comes into the comments and clears up my misconceptions so that a couple of times, I wanna times worse. He pointed out. There is a paper, the estimates, the trade war costs for China were far greater than for the United States, so they do that

they figure out their China probably cost them thirty, five billion, which would be that point three of their GDP whereas a? U S, probably cost us little under sixteen billion, happens but we also have a bigger economy, so it was only point. Eight percent of our gdp. Apparently, we have almost been beneficiary, their gdp went up so It's starting to look like trumps instinct. The trade war was correct in this sense. it would cost China more than it would cost us. So if somebody was going to blank it would probably be them all things being equal. Now, of course, it will put pressure on our farmers? So it's not exactly apples apples yoke as they could put a little.

political pressure on us in the way that we can put political pressure on them because of the differences in the systems. There's still suggests the trumps instincts were in the right direction, that China would more to lose, and if you go into a debate- or it will say into a trade war, With somebody who definitely has more lose than you do it's a strong position, your computer had doesn't mean you win, doesn't mean it comes out good in the end, but it certainly makes it look. Smart makes it look like a good play, our it. So, let's get to the meat of this, I have placed the trumps Laura meter at a hundred percent. It has been as low as fifty percent even last week when Trump with was still sick with growing

Virus and was doing some things that we're getting a lot of native attention like driving around and putting a risk his drivers is the critic, say and needed put them at risk. I just think you are such a small risk. It wasn't terribly important. but it's a hundred percent. Now I remind you for those who are not familiar with the slaughter meter, the slaughter meter is not a prediction is the slaughter meter just tells you how the day is going or how the week is going. It's a snapshot in time. The says artificially and remember. This is very artificial that if everything kept going the way things went this week. You would expect this outcome So if everything went the way things are going today, Trump would win easily.

Let me give you an idea of what is happening today, because the new cycle is just crazy. Is that how quickly you can be whiplash from from always devil you to lose two eyes that linking to win lose sight whiplash, so that the slaughter better could change again twenty times before election, but as of today, its pinned at a hundred percent. Here's. Why number one Well, let me give you some context: Trump doesn't need to convince you that he did a great job in all elements of the corona virus. He doesn't need to make their case. You think he would because that's the biggest.

laid against them is the one that seems to stick. So all of the experts seem to agree. Democrats and Republicans there where Trump is most vulnerable to criticism. Is the krona virus because the? U S numbers, don't look good compared to other countries. So that's gigantic gigantic weakness, because it's the thing in our minds is the thing that most scares us it affects the economy, it affects everything, he's gotta, get the corona virus right, or else he can't get reelected right. What do you say that would just be obvious: he's gotta get it right, it's the most important thing or does he? This is what I would like to add to these thinking on this. Not true he does.

We need to convince you that the most important thing happening right now. He got right. There is another way to do it. He asked to convince you that it isn't that scary, big if we are convinced that the current of ours, whether from ten Anna tab in scaring us, let's say in March and he's There are still two five, maybe tromp can get your fear level from ten undetermined out to a five, it's not gonna than ever that much how it was handled, because its importance will be less in your mind. So here's what happened this week, They will have the the irrational effect of making you less scared number one trump is seventy three or four got the corona virus. He's gotta go

or ability went into the hospital and, as of today, just what a week later, whenever looks great, he looks great now. Should anybody take from one anecdote about one person who had the best medical care in the world and was discovered early with the testing and that a good outcome you extend that one single person and of seven billion would be lab logical. Rational to say, oh well, I guess it's safe goes away. without one person at one time now that would be completely irrational and you're gonna do it anyway. You can help. We are story driven creatures, you forgive me. They didn't world big data over here and there story, about trumpet gets the krona virus at ease his under present a week later. Those are not equal that

a story about tromp recovering is bigger. then your whole mountain of data, because its visual, we see it, we feel it we talk about it, it come becomes number one in our heads. It just gives us it just takes us an irrational place which helps tromp Celeste number. Trumpet fully recovered becomes its own will story with power, and he knows that by the way he's playing it because he knows how powerful letters. Here's the other thing things coming is not quite here yet But I would say it's right on the border of being here and it's this. There were thirty or people who were allegedly infected, who had some White House connection? Thirty, four people, that's terrible.

That's really bad for tromp right, because it would show that he mismanaged the protection element of it and got thirty. Four people infected. So that's day, one story: what's this next week. Chris Christie is already out of the hospital. Looks like you'll, be fine. Are you worried about him? I mean honestly, if you're being honest, you know you heard that Chris Christie get caught the virus- and you said yourself- oh that's, not good because come more ability, city right he's got, I think, to current comber penalties. He's got asthma, he's gotta, wait issue he's not as young as it could be held. The SBA is not quite into the dangers.

But he's not a spring chicken, so he's out of the hospital looks like he'll be fine. Why happens what happens if and I think this is the most likely scenario? What happens if all thirty four people are fine in a week doesn't look as dangerous? Does it now? With that tell you anything what could you look at thirty four people who again were tested early foundered found their symptoms. Early got the best treatment in the world. probably can you make any logical inference from thirty four people? Now you can't they're all special cases but that's not your brain works, your brain, He's gonna, say: ok,

see this pattern feels like everybody, you guess it, including Chris Cresty, including President Trump, with his cover orbit. It is it feels like everybody's got better. Maybe this trump cure this regeneration and maybe with the room desert here, depending on where you are in the end, Ark is sounding a little bit more like a qr. Isn't it now? Is that logical, nope nope? There is no logic to what I just said, because the the the death rate of the virus is known to be less than one percent, and if you took thirty four people with great healthcare who gap detect Currently, there is a really really high chance will all be fine

and they would mean anything beyond what you already knew. It would just be more of the same, but because we're going to look at it because we're focused on it because they ll be famous people senators, the other way how Spock's all of these people are people. You know their familiar faces, the way of those thirty four people getting better and let's hope they do right. You know nobody's out of the woods completely yet, what's going to start looking like that, really soon,. starting to look like they're all out of the woods if any of them had turned bad, if anybody else had been hospitalized by now know it by now. You know by now saving butters, I'm saving the best one for last. So before I get the best one, The economy is improving right, so your economy is getting better.

and we have these anecdotal stories of people who seem to go through the corona virus. Fine and there's a story why it's better now than it used to be and President Trump has provided the story. The story is that these new therapeutics are the bomb they're, just really good. So you ve got a reason and you ve got a story way more our whole than data way more powerful, not even in the same universe data. Very, very unimportant. If you haven't noticed, it should be the most important. But it's not story very important, and the story is all trump right now,

back of him to do so, the economy is approving, which you would expect, because it's coming off a low Bates. It shouldn't be any big surprise that an economy coming offer a low point would have big percentage gains. So I think somebody said that tub October twenty knife, just a few days before election, we're going to see GDP results. They show that the gene You ve had a record increase, in other words a world record for the United States increase quarter or for quarter. I think I think he's gonna look like that they might not, but it will be a good increasing the way now. Why should you make from that? Oh, my god, Tromp is ingenious because we made a record for recovery. oh no, it would not be logical in any way to a tribute that leadership per se, because

we're coming off a low base, and anybody who had been present would have experienced probably a record game because, what's weird about this, this disaster is not like a war where you have to rebuild a factory before you You're GDP up, you just have to turn on the lights and say I back to work to run lights. Everybody who used. working here, you're, alright, you're all trained just come back and do what you do unless last spring. so the economy will of course look good. It won't mean what people think it means, but they will process it as though it's a trump success so irrationally it all works in his favour, still save the best powerful ass, a ready. This will make this whole. or periscope worthwhile. So, as of today, the World Health Organisation, who

announced that it does not favour locked downs as aid as a way of combating corona virus. Did you know that yet he had the World Health Organization. Experts, if he will indeed, probably the experts in this very thing, have come out of publicly said they do not favour lockdown the economy and the reason given reason giver. It's bad for poor people, bad for black people that brown people bad for anybody who is in a bad economic situation, and here's what's funny about that

You might say to yourself well, Scott, but the World Health Organisation has some credibility problems. That's why we pulled out. They were yells first said masks or bad, and they said there good. They said that the not to worry too much about the virus, but then it turns out. We should work, so it does seem as though the World Health Organisation is not that credible by wake. It gets better, it gets better, let's say, you're a Democrat. And here this news. The World Health Organization says that well, they don't use these words, but they

stay. In effect, that Trump was right when he contradicted the experts and said, let's open up the economy. That's right, one of the biggest expert groups and according to Democrats very credible, the World Worth Health organization has just sided with Trump who had opposed most of the air. or a lot of the experts on that there were, there was a very growing sizeable minority of experts who are so. The same thing. The World Health Organization said which, as you might be hurting people more than helping with these lockdown. So if you're a democrat- and you are big thing about trump- is that he doesn't follow the science What are you doing now. Now the those of us who, like President Trump One,

the things you like about him. The best is that he doesn't follow the science, because the science is often bullshit right. You do that. You knew that. You know the science is often not always, and certainly we should pay attention to signs. Certainly we should give it the greatest of winked, but it's often bullshit just the fat and you need a leader who is willing to say: ok, I hear what you're saying, but I still think it's bullshit and hears. Why that's? What trump did From the very beginning, when everyone- also saying hey Idiot Orange man locked down. It's the only way we can defeat this

You got a lock down. Why are you being such a moron? Why don't you listen to the experts? Why don't you listen to science sign, just a greater them, maybe not all of science but the world. Organization, not exactly. President Troms friend, right. anybody who dislikes president trump more than the world health organization- probably not this month, they might, they might be the winners. So some says I'm glad you. Finally, in about the experts, I don't think you know my history if you're saying that comment,

I have never been the one who back to the experts uncritically. I would be closer to the opposite. I am very much closer to the person who said there's a reason. The experts are wrong here. All the reasons I'm the Dilbert guy. You don't write the Dilbert cartoon and believe experts are right that you just automatically. I think that they, I think experts are moving Fast in the direction of being right, that's what science does science starts out, not knowing the answer takes a lot of cuz that sometimes don't work out, but it's moving towards youth is eliminating things that they used to think are true. If you narrow it down getting torch The problem with the experts and science in general is that you can't tell where you are in the path you dont know here,

twenty five percent of the way, the truth, fifty percent or a hundred percent, because it looks the same you just don't know when you're done, because you think you think you're done up, there's a new new discovery, another? So if you add these things together, tromp recur himself you self anecdotal, but it still is powerful. Thirty four people, recovering probably we hope, fingers crossed again just anecdotal- doesn't mean anything scientifically, but no matter matter too radio are, and then the World Health Organization completely Eve, rating the argument the trumpet doesn't follow science, it's the biggest argument coming out of the binding campaign. That's not the crazy racism! One.

And then just gotta here rated, because now the Democrats have two choices: they can either oppose science by opposing the World Health Organization, Diesel, how also loses the Democrats will have to oppose experts and oppose science to maintain their current view, the trumpets wrong they cannot have it both ways anymore. They can't say Travers wrong and science is good and inaccurate and you should follow it. It's gone, it's their biggest argument. It just a Bring now does that mean that the World Health Organization is right, I don't know

How the hell, what I know I have a preference. You know if you make me the leader I'll, give you a choice. I'll, give you a confident sounding choice of what I think we should do, but I dont know that's part of being a leader. You just got: take your best shot sometimes, so this is one of the strongest days that the president's had by Far Dont know if the rest of the media will recognizes because the sort of thing this is happening in people's impressions, so back to my original point, the president does not need to convince you that he got everything right in managing the corona virus. He needs to make you less afraid of it, so it just goes down in your priorities. The World Health organization just did that for

They they just completed it. He went, he couldn't have got there. I dont think you couldn't have got there without their help, because People were stuck inside, but the experts about the experts I hear what you say, but what about the experts are more, the experts are clearly different sides, and what do you do when the experts disagree? What is the right thing for a leader to do what experts disagree, leader makes choice and the leader, if it's a good leader, will make a choice based on the most basic concepts. In other words, he won't make them. We won't make a choice or she, the leader, will not make a choice

Based on the science as in well, I back the scientist and I believe this data and I dont believe that that would be bad leadership because of the scientists can agree. It would be absurd for the law. To say? I'm gonna look into the science myself I've read all the science, and I take this one. Bad leadership. a good leader says we can now that's what we, While we know is we don't know? So what do you do if you don't know How do you manage your risk? If you don't know- and I think that the president, as found exactly the right sweet spot here- he's the the thing that you can default too. His freedom, because the one thing we know is that. If we were to lose our freedom to anything screw, it were at a here right.

Wait, wait I'll, just close the planet starved to death. If we. It was our freedom. We don't even want to be here. If you say to me, I can give you your freedom back, but there's a one percent chance then you'll die. Then I'll. Take my friend I'll give you your freedom back, but there's a one percent chance. Your grandmother might die a few years early. I'm sorry grandma, I'm gonna talk to Grandma first, but you know what she agrees. Grandma doesn't disagree. Grandma wants me to be free, grandma wants to be free. Will she had the higher risk? The shall die? Yes, she well. If she doesn't do everything I can to keep grandma safe. But if you don't know, what's the right thing to do, you have to default to the primary

primary human needs and we have a primary human need for freedom, and that affects, of course, the economy which keeps poor people alive, which keeps us happy which keeps us from killing ourselves. All of these benefits, so Trump has done what Trump always does heel he p through this. This impenetrable data, science wrap them wasn't quite a solid as that ever needed today? We wanted it to be good, but it never was he

you're through it all, and he found the essential human part and the human part is this day one corona virus scares day to the krona virus attacks us attacks the United States Day three Corona viruses seems to be winning, even though our presence, and it wouldn't day for corona virus is kicking, are fucking asses day five day six week to week three week for corona virus is ripping our civilization. Apart month, three corona virus has us by the neck weak five month. Five corroded virus is just kicking, are fucking asses month. Six.

Fuck you grown a virus were done. We gotta some tools there. Not complete tools are not. There are not enough to completely destroy the virus yet, but we're going on offsets. we're not going to lose anymore. we're not going to lose to the virus or not to lose the China we're not going to lose any more, and your president has made it clear that the losing part is behind us. Will people die yes? Yes, they will. Will Americans died in large numbers? That should and will alarm us. Yes, are we going to back down because it's risky nope? Are we going to go forward? Yes, are we going to beat the coronavirus one way or another one way or another.

His word up. We're just done losing can't lose forever. We're done. Those and the president has called the term. The World Health Organization gave an assist, and I think I think it could be over. Over in terms of election so I didn't coughed twice in public yesterday, the costly the day was giving a talk now in likelihood, the coughing is nothing he might be on medication, for example, there's one blood pressure, medication that gives you a dry off. Maybe someone who knows that age but he is so probably is coughing- is not grown a virus, but it is twenty. Twenty one, twenty twenty one, twenty twenty, nothing! Nothing is off. The tape.

as she were, has said everything on the table so will twenty twenty deliver the most wanting you twenty, the thing that could ever happen, which is binding and getting the corona virus, now keep in mind that biogas the crowd of virus and either one of these two things happens either, who recovers fine, which would be the best news which would also make the virus look less scary again. Not in it. it away, but it would just make us feel that way or we has a bad outcome and then, of course, Trump has a better victory, but we don't want that outcome. That would be the worst of all cases, but he's. laughing. And if you see the guy you wanna. Let president one of them has recovered completely the

ones, older and you're, not so sure that by didn't could could recover and he's coughing there's no way that doesn't affect you now have said. I have said that the present term should ask debate, come on Harris? And I think that would be a good play, even though she say now it would they were there tell you to think passed by them, which I think would be good for the four job. Here is a really interesting fact said: effects coming in Switzerland You know I've been telling you that there's something deeply unexplained about the corona virus numbers in terms of. Why is the United States have such big numbers compared to other places? It doesn't seem to be completely explained by leadership. It doesnt seem

to be completely explained by in a we have higher obesity. We have a higher black population that they get hit harder. If you put all of that in the next, it doesn't seem to explain the extraordinary difference, but then I heard about Switzerland. This came from Janusz milk on Twitter, and if you look in Switzerland what's interesting about it is that it has three seconds as a german speaking section, french speaking and belgian, I guess flemish speaking, so you ve got three distinct cultures in Switzerland and here's what's interesting. The three cultures had tremendously different experiences in the same country as not even

big country, geography, Wise Switzerland's, not terribly large, and in that little country, Switzerland, the Germans degrade Germans had a pretty good outcome, is comparable to Germany itself. The French didn't do so well, they did bad, just like France,. now, how do you explain that the french people in Switzerland, at the same results as the french people in France and the german people in Switzerland, had the same experience as people in Germany, but in Switzerland itself in the same country, with the same with us, leadership wildly different results and same with the belgian group, so they they matched each of those three ethnicity. Matched very well to what the country that

associated with different country, how they did. How do you explain that, while one hypothesis is that it's a cultural difference, it could be that Germans don't touch as much. It could be that they have the same closeness handshaking just cheek. Just I don't know, maybe something like that. Less one one possibility- and that was what was suggested by the ashes tweet. But of course, Andres Bacchus came into the comments and ruined all my happiness, because I thought I last I understand. What's going on, there is a very big difference in terms of culture? All behaviour that might be important and address points out,

That there is also another big variable: they cannot be overlooked, witches commuting so in other words, the french speaking part, probably commutes to other french places, the german speaking part, probably canoe to work together. german speaking places. I assume some of this is over the border and it really might have to do with where the infection gets a hold. First. and then, where did they travel? In other words, do the french speaking people in Switzerland. Spend as much time travelling to the german and belgian parts of Switzerland, or do they stick Our own french speaking part, probably. A lot of sticking with a own neighborhood, so it could be that travel and transportation patterns end up, explain The whole thing that if you have a certain kind of transportation, batter your relative

We save, let's say New Zealand. What does the intern national travel pattern or even the domestic travel pattern with in New Zealand. And if you saw that visually and compared it to say the United States, would they look similar. Just me, and one is bigger, is that the only differ I don't think so. I think our travel patterns in the United States might have a lot to do with our experience. If not the culture So there is still an open question, but the fact that Switzerland had such different experiences with one leadership does that not tell you that leadership is not the overarching variable Because Switzerland should have had a fairly uniform experience, if the only thing that matters is how well you manage the manage the outbreak. But in fact they were so different that you

almost rule L leadership as even being a veritable because if, if it weren't, you get more similar results, and when you got something there was an outsize fact like an outbreak. It would be like New York City, where you could look out and say: well, it's New York City. We have more travel. There was a problem with the the old folks who are put in nursing homes, etc. So you identify it if it wasn't. If it was an exception, you could track down precisely more and more people talking about the similarities between the pulling this year and the polio twenty sixteen, and if you look at the swinging states, especially and you look at the differences,

See that the amount that Hilary was leading a trump in twenty sixteen only to lose those same states is very similar in fact effect bite. It doesn't even lead as much as hell it was so. Are we gonna run into the same situation, because it looks exactly like twenty? Sixteen, A lot of people are saying. Yes, this looks exactly like two thousand and sixteen so we're going to get the same result, but here's the counter argument the counter argument from night. Nay, silver, who I hold out as one of the best follows on twitter. So if you're not following him, you really should his tremendous at stake. The numbers now does that mean he's always right, of course, not it doesnt work like that. He is not is not the kind of job we're being right. All the time is right.

A thing, but he's really right a lot. So even though he slightly got the twenty sixteen race It was always lightly. He was pretty close, so I would- I am a very credible source and he says that the twenty sixteen experience won't tell us about twenty twenty, because the pollsters figured out what they did wrong and twenty society and they made adjustments. So you can compare him because one is before they knew they had a problem and one is after they corrected the problem. Now, twenty twenty good right, accurate. Now. Ok, that's a smart argument, but there's a counter to the counter which offer now.

some people say that there were few if any shy, Trump supporters in twenty sixteen. After all, there is a difference of opinion on that, but there is, I think, there's some unity of the fact that it was a gigantic. He may, it might have been small motivated the difference, but it wasn't gigantic the hidden shy trump supporters of don't show up and poles, but twenty twenty is not twenty. Sixteen we have for years been vilified for being trumps supporters, if you, if you tell me that there are more people hiding their trump support and twenty twenty even from pollsters.

If you tell me that's another thing, I ve lost all credibility, because let me tell you I dont have data, I don't have a way to show you data to prove it, but a hundred percent of experience and observation is compatible with the fact that We are not least of all I asked in Twitter Ball, which is unscientific of course, but I still got hundreds of people within a minute who said that they ve lied to pollsters this year this year they have liked. Bolsters. So, if hundreds of people who follow me on Twitter can in a minute, I will confess that they did that I think there is a lot of that out there lot of other I'm starting to

that the hour and then, if you look at some of the other indicators like there's one indicator, the says that if the the candidate who gets over seventy five percent in the primary is always Three elected so they're, a bunch of other weirdo kinds of trends and correlations, that's the favour, the president so all of the ones that can't be rigged favour, tromp, all of the ones, can be rigged, we're pretty sure they were twenty. Sixteen. All of those seem to be against Trump. So if it's something that can be rig, it's against tromp, if it can't be read such as looking at the how much anybody got in the primary is in the past. If it can't be rig, it favours drop

Current salutes a coincidence that they always things that no favour M are the things that are easily rig and were and twenty sixteen farmers like. here's, a annoying provocative thought. I feel as though the election could come down to be always be close. it could come down to have successfully the Harris Biden campaign. That's why I'm going to call them for now for now on the Harris Biden Campaign and their corporate lackey is it might come down to how how well they can keep black voters on informed? Is that awful.

The election of this in this country will almost certainly come down to how well Democrats can bamboozle and dupe black voters into thinking. Tromp is something is not, and the key to that. The most important thing is the fine people hoax. The reason that I keep hammering on that one hoax when in politics is full of things that are not true, but I keep hammering on that. One thing relentlessly is because that's the key I tenant, I tend to think of the world,

yeah in a physical analogy. Quite often, when I used to do computer programming years ago, I would have. I would imagine my program as a pinball machine, where the of the control of the program was the ball, and I was putting bumpers and levers and things to control. You know where the ball and it's up, so I would translate my my programs into physical things, so I can manipulate them physically, when I was not sitting in front of my computer, so I could do my programming and physical way is like there's gonna be a building over here that does this and attend to do the same thing with politics. I translated into these physical model, so I can manipulate them in my head, and what are the physical models. Is that

voters are literally in a misinformation jail. I suppose it set a racist. Visualization probably is so just assume that that way, but I imagine that because their uninformed and their their new sources, and specifically in this is one area not. General, but in this one area there under informed, which is, I believe, the fine people hoax, was real because their new source tells him Israel- and they don't see everything else, so if you believed that the president really called NEO Nazis and white supremacist fine people and that he said it in public that he said it with no remorse,

if you believe that was true, you would believe everything else bad said about him and race, because if that extra anything could be true, so the fight people hoax is not like the other. Things is the key to the jail, and is black people ever get that key? In other words, if if the black voters learn how badly duped intentionally completely intentionally now how badly they've been conned on that one hoax makes all the other hoaxes look real if they ever get that key there just gonna shoved in the lock and there never gonna

democratic now, what are the odds that that'll happen low? I think the odds, the odds of the black population getting the hands on that key and finding out how badly they've been duped by Democrats is low, because I have control of the new sources, but it could happen. It's not impossible. It's just. Here's the best funniest thing that I've heard in awhile, let's say all day Others, a sports commentator- maybe you see them, appears on Fox NEWS every every now and then Jason Whitlock he's he's black, which is important to the story and. I say this every time can we ever get to the place where you can tell us frickin story without mentioning the race or the gender of the person involved. Can we get to that point? Like alike

I just crave the time when I don't have to add that and he's black, because it does matter to the store And what he said was that, Lebron James as the black trump the first I've? I heard it. I thought not ways as was make sense. I was Lebron James, the the black Trot and then it goes on to explain that, and I go here is the black drop it goes like this Le Bron? This is the case. We lock LE fashions himself as a dig, dignified statesman. role, model political activists and champion of racial equality here. Every bit as crude undignified inarticulate as our sitting President James Rights, James, meaning LE brought, rights and speaks at a third grade level, the athletic prison,

she is a joy it that's right! You were not born with Lebron James physical abilities. I wasn't. I wasn't born with his physical capital at least he was born privileged Eddie that he's enjoyed since about aged ten spoiled and pampered him. The same way, wealth and privilege spoiled and pampered President Trump Jason Whitlocke argument made. You are correct now I would argue with some of his characterizations of our president, but because this, if it really the part about his vocabulary, because I think the presence for capillaries ideally suited for the way you communicate with the public. But the correlation and the analogy analogy accepted analogy, accepted.

And so I think I'll be calling Lebron James Black tromp from now. I guess it's wonderfully delicious. All that is my programme for today, and I hope you enjoyed it so the the slaughter meter several hundred,

You should act. You should expect that this coming week will be really newsy news. Gonna come out and could change everything, so the slaughter meter could be anything by tomorrow, but as of today, the hundred percent- that is my show for the day right, periscope people have been signed off and I'm still here with you, you tumors like to spend more time. Looking at your comments, thank you. It is the best part of the day. I agree totally with desperate aright. That's all for me today and I will talk to you tomorrow.