« Coffee With Scott Adams

Episode 117: Reducing Bias, Eating at the Red Hen and Midterm Turnout

2018-06-25 | 🔗


  • Red Hen restaurant and President Trump’s tweet
  • Maxine Waters call for harassment of conservatives
  • Hawk Newsome’s recommendation for pardon consideration
  • Scott’s conversation yesterday, with an…
    • informed, educated, highly intelligent liberal media person


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The post Episode 117: Reducing Bias, Eating at the Red Hen and Midterm Turnout appeared first on Dilbert Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
bob bob bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum he knows anybody notice that the farmers insurance uses my theme song except i think they came up with the first they've got those little theme song where they go we are farmers bump bump bump bump sounds a lot like my music doesn't speak speaker music i'm not a music guy but i had to check out kanye's album b a and all my god it's so good i just had to tell you that so if you if you care here's like more than i do you're going have to check that out i'll tell you what was amazing about it my big complaint with music
is that when you're listening to band or artist song they might have one big hit and then all the rest is just either boring or is sounds the same but you let you can listen to kanye's music and it's just as never say it doesn't sound like anybody else it doesn't even sound like a genre you know it seems to rose from john rose and it's the most creative thing i've ever heard from music i don't know if it's the most i've ever heard the the level of sheer artistic genius and that thing is just off the hook anyway enough with that so if you saw the president's tweet about the red hen restaurant if you didn't let me read it to you the red hen restaurant this is from president trump
as you know they refused service for sarah sanders the red hen restaurant should focus more on cleaning its filthy canopies doors and windows badly needs a paint job rather than refusing to serve a fine person like sarah huckabee sanders i always had a rule if arrest is dirty on the outside dirty on the inside you know he's definitely the funniest president all that one i think that would speaks for itself they might ask yourself as i to be good or bad for business or the red hen and my my guess is in the short run it might actually get more business because people will say happened to support or that restaurant that has my same politics
so the short run they probably picked up business in the long run in the long run this is sort of tweet this sort of settles in with people after a while it's like hey this building is dirty on the outside so here's a part of that i've told you before the president likes to um same things and brand things so you are continually reminded for example some of you just reminded me to take the simultaneous up because you know you missed it let's do that simultaneous with me right away so the president by branding this red hat restaurant as being filthy on the outside and by the way i don't know if it is but let's say it's imperfect on the other
he's caused everybody who sees the outside of it to reminded of the sweet so if there's any imperfection on the outside of this restaurant there's a maybe a bird business on the ordering little bit of paid two of everything is your brain going to go bing presidents tweet dirty on the outside well on the inside is sure like this automatic connection he made so in the long run i would expect business to go down in the short run they might get a bump from the publicity so anyway that was kind of like who you see more examples of trump supporters specifically in the administration being being run out of places and
insulted in ways that we have never seen before seems to be getting getting more personal than it ever has and one of the big questions of people ask is what is going to do in the mid term and i think i told you that i feel personally physically threatened for my security because of the situation and as a simply as a self defense i've decided to get involved at least persuasion one with increasing the the turn now the republican turnout for the mid terms because i think that if they take down the president i don't know where the sentence really and so there probably is an enormous mistakes are probably enormous
now i don't agree with republican policies on everything i'm not a republican but it's a dangerous situation and uh well i i'm going to change james tracks here for a moment let me just say i'm going to do some more persuasion on turn out it seems to be the best persuasion is that they might be coming for you next because they have decided to demonize trump supporters as less than human you know where that ends up don't you so the less than human demonization that's happening now it's one thing when politicians do it to each other because that's just sort of the game but when they start
press your explicitly turning you against each other if your politicians are turning the citizens against each other that's as bad as you can be as a politician maxine waters who has publicly now called for administration people to be harassed wherever they live work or eat actually she actually went public and said to harass him where they where they live in you can because they're so bad and i say to myself that is us politician i've ever seen you could even forget about for about her policies anybody turns americans against each other is
is automatically in the bottom one percent of all politicians it's certainly the worst thing you could possibly do now i know people will say but the president has done that too no i would argue the president has tried to turn not turn but his tried to america the team in friendly competition with other countries and his preferred people on his team and just as which kerr prefers people on the warriors but the media of course has turned that into something or now the question you might ask yourself and this is the part of our coffee with scott adams i want to talk about how to get rid of bias in politics let's talk about that and to talk about that we need to go to the white board so as you know human beings are horrible by s robots we're just full of bias for everything
we think we have knowledge and reason and opinion and stuff but we don't we're mostly biased and then we rationalize things after the fact so in many realms humans have finally figured out how to do is how to create a system the decrease is there a bias it's imperfect but at least it you closer so for example if your in this science you might is the scientific method understanding that all the scientists might be individually biased and biased by who's paying study and biased a lots of different ways but the scientific process over will drive out that bias with everything from controlled studies to peer review to that sort of thing so science has a process for using by not to zero but it's a good process the legal system has thousands of rules about how you
then came out to prosecute somebody want a lawyer kevin cannot do jury trials etc cool the lady the legal system and all of its rules is designed to drive bias and of the system it doesn't do it perfectly would you know it's a continuous work in progress but it's a good system and compared to the countries it does drive by us out of it engineers buy a set of their decision making using stuff like math and a testing so they just make sure that the math works in they've tested they can they can be sure it works that pretty good job the old way sorry in politics politics doesn't have a process anymore but are used to so politics used to have a process for getting rid of bias not getting rid of it but reducing it and that this was the press
read write stories about the government and that would shine the light on things that were going wrong or there was say there was money influencing it or there was some kind of something was on a that process of the press you know focusing things that are wrong help us improve it and drive out the bias overtime bucks the business model of the press changed and now the only way the press can stand in business is by getting lots of attention and lots of clicks and the only way to do that at this point is to be outrageous and more biased so the very the very mechanism that was for many decades taking bias out of politics this model changed and now the the that was supposed to take by a is injecting bias so i would say
the big difference in the bias you're seeing you know the extreme polarization is business model of the media changed and now it's their job to create bias that's how they get more clicks keep an audience instead of driving them so of all these domains there's only one of them and i'll talk about these idea in a moment but only one of these domains lit but it doesn't have a mechanism they used to but it doesn't now social media and and the press just make by worse because they like to or is their job or the business model support set so let me suggest some those that might get us to less bias i recommend that for the big complicated stuff and that could be healthcare could be immigration it could be in prison reform it could be climate change you know the big stuff the congress can't get
done by the way have you noticed this correlation that whenever there's a big political topic that the president is primarily in charge of it's going really well north korea president's mostly in charge going well of the war against isis in the other territories of isis going well the economy now of course the you know that calm help with the tax cut but that was sort of still the president and that was a that was sort of a lay up tax cuts for republican anyway but the economy is largely driven by psychology and the president's nailing it on the psychology because couldn't consumer manufacturing confidence right although hi is unemployment slow so and then picking judges so wherever the president has most of the power himself he's killing it is just killing it
but where are the president has to rely on congress you know that would be things like healthcare and immigration totaly unsuccessful that's not a quince this because we don't have any mechanism for driving bias and politics and it would help if we did because that's probably the only way you could get to a point where congress could agree on something because right now the polarization in the media and social media makes it almost impossible for one side to agree with the other and still get elected so you need something changes that so i recommend for those big issues a public debate with real time fact checking with the judges so in other words let me compare that to news coverage news coverage it goes this and by the way the president strangled maybe now the news let's move on to talk about something else that's a bad example but
as the nobody stops and says hold it hold on you just made a claim effect uh what are the judges say okay the independent judges that fact check so you can't say that anymore so that was the table so say again what you're gonna say but take that fact out because we've we've never show that one to be not very good yeah and then importantly you don't want to time limits on your debate so i'm talking about a debate that could take three months and maybe you only error you know fifteen minutes of it a week on a so weekly format or something so you give people time to go back to deal with the deal with whatever objections were raised during their debate reschedule summarize where you are so far okay and our last debate we decided this this and this today there was some about this so the
it's coming back in the early going to address that and then you move on as long as it takes until the public has been informed created some videos that live forever so that people can catch up easily and you drive out the bias now this doesn't have to reach a decision this is shelly but it would be part of a process to drive down to bias all right effects no matter what the usage is the reason the facts don't matter and by the way when i say xo matter i mean no matter to decisions cristata
christine is on the road and will be staying at a trump property in new york soon judge just for fun to check it out see what the vibe there is like no i lost my train of thought suit christina does to me what was i talking about mike my brain just got scrambled there for a moment you do that to me kristin i'm is my girlfriend who's traveling right now do you about being affected by politics let me let me get back to fact checking so somebody asked if facts matter why do a debate which would be all about reason facts when i say facts don't matter i mean the facts don't matter to our decision making
obviously facts matter to results because if you walk in truck in the truck kills you that's a fact and you're not happy but in our decision we tend to ignore that and use bias we would use fax more often if they were the to us in some way we could actually understand and agree so the reason that we don't use facts and the facts no matter is that they're not presented to us in any way that would ever be persuasive this would be a way that at least people in the middle not the on the far right not the people on the far left there going to be stuck in their worlds no matter wat but there are that people in the middle change something that's you're log well log jam you can move the log so there are some people who will be persuaded by the persuasiveness facts and reason there just aren't many of them
and they don't have any chance of being persuaded by facts and reasoned unless is presented in a persuasive form sending faxes unpersuasive forms such as the way climate science is presented is not persuasive now when i say the climate is science uses facts in a unpersuasive way i mean they're almost universally you're going to see fax from one side in isolation and those are not useful whatsoever fax show hidden contacts they have to be compared to other peoples fax you need fact checkers you need time you need some back and forth you need some
see you need to judge you need a lot of things to activate the persuasiveness of facts and we're not anywhere near being able to do that um i see that most of you have been sidetracked by my personal life the comments it happens to be too so i understand that um alright let me let me see what else we got going here going to turn away from the board back to main more about maine smoking early today so we said no and i am not high in case you're wondering so let's talk about wow happened with the kids and the cages
now do you understand exactly what happened when the president the side his directive to to end this separation of children kids does everybody know what happened why what happens because of that specifically the other people who are simplistic for understanding of things said to themselves problem solved the presidents all signed a piece of paper no the critics of the president had themselves in a corner by claim that the only thing you needed to do was sign a piece of paper sign that paper problem solved what's the problem children and families separated what's the solution sign a piece of paper that that was the the complete death of their political analysis now the president had from the beginning and the administration said that the real problem is that
you can sign anything you want but it doesn't make facilities instantly appear it doesn't make extra judges instantly appear it doesn't change any of the physical things and the reason that children were separated from parents was because there was a risk of you know sexual violence and other violence so in in no case do you ever keep aaron's ever dolls especially if you don't know the the actual relates ship they might not actually be their kids you know keep them together until you know the situation right so common sense says but the public as required the president to depart from this equation the equation was will do something that's very unpleasant for a lot of kids at a lot of parents this separation temper very unpleasant experts say could have some psychological damage perhaps nobody likes that
but it was compared to some kids being raped and killed and beaten so that was his that was the the trump formula was well to avoid some kids having awful problems i a situation where unfortunately temporarily some adults and some kids are in some stressful situations that might have some lasting problems those were the only choices on the table in the short run in the long run of course you can do anything you want in the short run those were the only choices because the number of people coming in through as a family had grown quickly and our ability to adjust just wasn't as fast so what the republicans did was they forced the government to endanger children so that they could be right so how bad how bad or politics
to do the political situation in united states is so bad that the haters of the president were willing to endanger children in the worst ways you know death and rape everything else they were willing to endanger children just to make sure that he looked even worse now i know that to some of the critics will say wait a minute there's no risk he signed a piece of paper everything should be fine but they're not they're not the adults in this conversation so for another sip that's what i hear you must be right type for a sip and now of course because facts don't matter we're seeing that the people on
who were opposed to the president have decided that they're the holy ones so the ones who have forced the president's hand into endangering children in the worst possible way our adding their virtue having certainly doomed a number of children to death and destruction children that action it happened and we all watched and we didn't really have much choice about it because the sentiment was so strong on one side there wasn't really anything you can do about it but the public got what they wanted now i've said this before but the time i say this i feel like it just needs to be said again which is the very thing that people were worried about with this president was that he would do dictator stuff meaning that he would ignore the will of the people and something just for him you know or just
to enhance his own whatever his ego that he just be a middle dictator and if you watch this situation what happened what happened was the system worked actually the way you'd want to work which is the public wanted something that wasn't happen they wanted something that the president didn't want they wanted something very very different from the president's preference and here's the key part it was the president's highest priority to be tough on the border his highest priority he wanna let you know largely that was one of his big issues right his biggest issue the
public and the media said no we don't like this kids and parents being separated that's not gonna fly change it what do you do he signed a paper you doesn't doesn't make anything change quickly really in danger them but the public got what they wanted so the the odd thing about the complaints are that the public demonstrated to itself where should that this president can be can be in unfairly immediately by public opinion and if they believe they are on the right side of this public opinion of course they do they think that they went from a bad situation to a better one that's debatable but we went to a one that they prefer and the president just came to the system the system kind of worked for do you know what was missing
one thing missing let me tell you what was missing that that's what was missing so we get we did get an outcome that probably is irrational in other words in that document just cause lots of confusion and yeah i'm sure it caused a whole other set of problems people being released that you know if the danger at is because we didn't have any way to drive the bias out of the system there just wasn't any mechanism the press makes it worse they don't make it better um all right uhm now will you get a fact checker me personally
no now it seems to me that you could probably it seems to me that the private industry ah this model of these online debates and i or would stop them except that there's no business model that supports it so maybe it's something i can try at some point let me take a run at it one of these days all right scott you should go on jesse lee peterson show i have been on the show jessie is amazing is one of my favorite people is is got a kind of a buddha energy yeah you when you just around yet just the changes people in the room is kind of amazing just to just to see him work
you may have noticed that hawk newsome suggested a someone for pardon someone who had a life sentence for a first offense for drugs it has served on a few decades several decades is sixty two now and what has been the ideal citizen so i thought it was a really strong strong recommendation you know of course you need to you need people to dig in and make sure all the facts that are presented are correct but let me let me present to you a a proposition here's a proposition i make about trump supporters if you're bad to trump supporters are there often going to be bad to you true right
people who are bad to trump supporters are going to get a bad reaction back that's pretty safe to say not every person right but in jet you know you're going to get as good as you you gave the other thing about trump supporters that might be different than the other way there and activating mechanism for trump supporters and for conservatives i would say and watching the comments to see if this is true or not true i mean it'll look for your i'll look for your agreement or disagreement if you do a favor for a trump supporter or conservative what's the outcome so that's my question to you if you do something good unasked you're just doing something good for a trump supporter or
you compliment them when it was up wasn't expected do them a favor wasn't expected yeah look at look at all probably one hundred percent of the comments are going to say the same thing appreciation reciprocity you know thank you gratitude good reciprocity reciprocity reciprocity all right have i told you is the smartest person in the game in terms of black lives matter hot what did hawk newsome do i retweeted it wasn't long ago few weeks ago what did hog newsome tweet without being asked nobody asked him to do this heat we did that that black people don't need vote democrat and that he would that they should vote
with the side that does the best job for them how did you feel when one of the probably i would say the most effective voice for black lives matter sad i'm going give you guys a shot did you expect that did you expect the the you know with the leading voice of black lives matter in my opinion anyway to say i'll give i'll give trump a shot if he performs did you expect that you did not so he's given you a gift yeah and it very big gift it's reasonable it's you know it's it's love based it's christian base it's everything you want and you didn't expect it now works as here's this idea for african american i don't know
sixty two year old who's been in prison for probably a little way too long for the wrong reason well it's right reason but way too long and he suggests that this would be a good pardon how do you respond well you take it seriously right you take it seriously because you're trigger do offer some reciprocity now in all of this their self interest involved right so walk as the best you can for the people he's he's sort of championing which is not strictly black people by the way okay as a bigger view of the world he's not he's not trying to do was only good for black people is doing things that are good for prison reform poor people etcetera but they happen to be a little disproportionately good for the black community and that's great
and of course trump supporters would like to have more votes and support and you know the there's lots of things that they would like as well and sometimes they might just like make the world better so everybody wins but i think the active part is the reciprocity so so hawk delivered something you were expecting which is a possibility of outrage and a little bit better relationships with the republicans and black community he is the kind of person who could deliver it at least on the small you know it doesn't change the world overnight but gotta move in right direction and he's made a suggestion for someone who seems very portable as far as i can tell i could be wrong on the facts but it looks like so i would say that this would be the ideal person depardon not because just because of the person being
part in the bowl and would be the right message etc but because of where it came from time to repay the favor all i had a fascinating experience yesterday then i'll tell but i have to leave down some of the details so i spent the day you know several hours with um somebody in the let's say the the writing business i'm gonna be as vague as possible and it was somebody who was physically ill on election night when he learned that president trump got he was actually physically sick so so he has a terrible case of trump derangement syndrome as we like to say but he also spent several hours with me talking about all kinds of things but a lot of it was about our differing opinions on the president's performance
here's the first thing that i learned that was really fast so imagine someone who's part of the media and very very well informed inject highly educated and has a strong opinion the number of things i mentioned as x asians or background or context that never heard of was staggering and i'm not saying that he's under informed this is a comment on the two channels of of life you know there's there's one side that's only hearing things coming from a certain set of media and then there's another side only their own stuff but for his him to experience for the first time the bubbles connecting 'cause apparently where he lives you just don't see trump supporters or or they don't talk or or it was like he had never had a conversation with a trump supporter
even though i know he had but the number of ordinary facts that every on the right nose they had never heard even once is really interesting and i don't know how much of that is explained by you know i don't know how much of the difference in the size that explains man we're not looking at the same stuff you know just the base the base information is completely different for example i uh some about success in north korea and his opinion is that there there isn't any now is that mind to you that as of today someone could be watching the news and say now it doesn't look like there's any progress with north korea because you know they didn't really give us anything they can't just take back
does is make your head go bottom rim of the little the little how could you possibly will be watching this situation with the with all of its moving parts about north korea not see any progress and while he would say is all that happened was kim jong moon got something he wanted which was you know credibility which will help kim jong moon maybe with china and maybe in other ways but what do we get nothing he could just take it all back to my and then i said you i've seen the greatest diplomatic move of all time from president trump regarding n korea and i explained it this way they said can you think of any other time in history where two countries were at the brink of war and one of the leaders took where the reason just psychologically
not in any physical way he took away the reason he took it away from our side and then he helped kim taken away from his side have you ever seen that no it it's visible apparently to half of the country half of the country i didn't see that happen in say things like it so the whole idea with reunification is that if you're if you have dual intentions to somehow get to a unified country forget about the details who's in charge 'cause it's going to take decades to get there but if your goal is to be the same country you're not really thinking in terms of you know i better keep my nukes so i can nuke myself 'cause that's what it would become reunification took the idea of nukes just off the table uhm and then the president's framing of things from
being our enemies the worst thing but we could really help you have a switzerland singapore kind of a country where will have much of a military or a reason for a military we can give you some security guarantees we can help you rebuild you could have condos on the beach and and i think to myself that's how he took the reason way the reason that all the other good stuff is happening you and it wasn't the point so the person i was talking to still still was until now i don't know that that's real and then i said you've heard of course the kim has argued has ordered that the anti us graffiti and let's be removed in north korea and i looked at his face when i told him that and i could i could see him escaping from the bubble because he didn't know that
so this is again another piece of news that let me ask you how many of you knew that piece of news how many of you knew that kim has ordered the anti us graffiti and all the anti us stuff to be scrubbed from north korea yeah look at all the essence how many people on the left no that yeah if you did not but you can see the far and away the people watching this periscope know that that happened but but an anti trumper didn't know what happened and when he heard it i swear i've talked to you about this before there's there's a thing that's sort of a brain lock and it happens when cognitive dissonance is triggered and it looks it looks like this you know a normal person you say hey what's your fave
color the persons i have read you know green so that's the person who's got a normal they're in their normal mode but a person who gets triggered into cognitive dissonance in other words they just realized that their entire worldview was wrong you say that what's your favorite color and they go you know there's there's a brain lock of the end so i'm not sure i saw that in him but the moment he realized the kim jong moon would never remove anti american graffiti unless you serious about this whole piece thing it was sort of like his brain sort of i think had a moment
so i doubt that i changed his mind in any serious way because people tend to you know you know retrieved back to their base after after a conversation but the the take away from it was the extraordinary difference in just base information that the two sides are looking at now i assume that this works both ways but i assume that some of you had a conversation with someone and left that was well informed they would say you know did you know x y z and probably you'd say what we never heard of that so i assume it works both ways so don't get too cocky
now here's another thing i said that because the strong reactions so listen listen now provocative this following statement is and it'll take you a moment as you might have the same reaction your brain is going to skip skipping here here for a moment now most of you will skip a year and then get right to the right place but a man and if you're in the other movie and what i make you skip a year you know what's gonna happen in the and here's the statement my statement is that if president trump voluntarily resign from office today he would already be the greatest president we've ever had based on what he's done so far we know what did that just to the brain
now let me let me put a little more detail on this think about all the all the complaints about the president and then think all the things that even his critics would say are going well there's an interesting difference a a general pattern between the things that even even the critics would say are going well economy is under and the things that they are most worried about do not that differences about about nobody said this before here's the difference all of their criticisms are about their imagined future i'll just but hang there for a moment all the things he's accomplished have already happened
he already has you know great judges and lots more of them he's already cut regulations he's already done tax stuff the economy is already good isis is already defeated north korea's already you know going in the right direction trade wars probably result in something good our economy so strong we can take some hits even if it and so all the things he's accomplished are real they actually exist what other things that people are worried about some damn thing he'll do later right even the russia collusion thing has now dissipated to the point that i don't think anybody is counting on that now that would have been something in the past if it existed but now we know it didn't
so all of the things we thought were going to be real send it didn't happen but you've got this there's christine again hi christina but you've got these worry stuff in the future so if you were to resign today and resigning is sort of the key to this question because he let's say the the day you resign all the invest asians everything just stop right 'cause there's no point people people stop caring so all of the big future things people are afraid of just go away if you were to resign today this is just a mental experiment but all the things he's done such as judges economics trade deals north korea they kinda last forever and if you can show me another president who stopped a potential nuclear war
by removing the reason good luck with that it was the single greatest diplomatic move may of all time somebody saying reagan i think reagan had a little bit a lock on his side of timing and i thought you think reagan really just pressed until they fail which is a little bit of a different situation for saying this however you are wrong i don't know what that means so it's a service court sort of a brain explosion i think may be overstating and but the moment you realize that the person you thought was the worst person in the world if he resign today would be the best president we've ever had i think historians could make a pretty good argument for that
all of the problems were presumed problems are things we imagine will happen in the future here's another key part they're very similar thing to the things you imagined should have already happened right 'cause if all those things you're worried about in the future were real they probably would have already happened now hold on a second i'll be back come back now the only thing that the anti trumpers had to hang on to because this situation is kind of it's tough to keep your sanity when the monster that you think is the baddest of the world as it keeps and then they had this children and families thing which of course nobody really understood and people pushed for the worse outcome instead of the better outcome even though both
terrible of so is a messy ugly situation but it was it was like a a cool drink of water for the people who have mental distress because they couldn't figure out why this guy keeps getting lucky why is this guy keep get lucky what's up with that so at least they had that children things what will the history books tell us about trump my name it my guess is that the history books the written by people who are alive during trump's administration will be negative because they won't get out of their their bubble but the historians that come in a hundred years we'll look back and say you know
i can see why they were you know why it was polarizing but i am sure got some stuff done i think that's what's going to happen depends who is writing and it depends who's writing same with lincoln is that true the link in it is it true that lincoln's reputation was better a hundred years after lincoln than it was during his time i think that's true right is used i think it was pretty unpopular in this time it was just a very the weight of history that rehabilitated trump was in home alone two you say yeah i saw that that photo difference between motivation and
persuasion i'm going to have a motivation expert on in the next week or so we just have to schedule dre baldwin and we'll talk about that that's a good question what's the difference between motivation and persuasion all right for have you ever read that winning the devil by napoleon hill i've not i've read napoleon hill his work before the way napoleon hill if i have this right let's see if i have this right you in fact so i believe the andrew carnegie the just man in maybe the world at the time andrew carnegie he wanted we figure out why rich people are rich and why other people aren't you know is there some kind of a trick to it
and i believe the story is that he hired a writer what was his name hill and hill wrote about you know the techniques that rich people yeah i grow rich wrote about how rich people do their thing and i think that the power of positive thinking which which grew out of the power of positive thinking which was right it was napoleon hill rd thinking grow rich and he influenced trump's pastor who wrote the power of positive thinking norman vincent peale and that influenced trumpet influence main influence lots of people so if you trace it back andrew carnegie was actually sort of the thought let's say the thought
our i don't even know if there's a word for what he did but he was sort of the a lot not even leader because he was asking other people to put the thoughts together but also a thought entrepreneur who got this whole string of events into the future that are literally affecting the presidency today patron is a good word yes thank you all right north korea skips annual gathering of anti us nations i assume that's a headline today and the the stock market is down i understand some people are saying it's seterus let me give you a little a primer on understanding finance and the stock market
when you see an expert on television say the stock market is down or the stock market is up because of acts that's all nobody really knows why the stock market goes up or down on any given day now some of the day traders and stuff maybe trading on the news and then maybe blips but there are always such bigger forces and bigger variables that when you're looking into this thing has a hundred big variables but the only one that changed day is the little one here's how this works if there's something that looks like a little bit of bad news like some trade dispute and by coincidence here's the key part and by coincidence the stock market also goes down what do the experts report
they say because of the small problem in the news the stock market went down what happens when the stock market goes a little bit in the other direction opposite the bad news what are the expert say go one of the experts say when the market moves in the opposite direction from what the news is they say they say it moved in spite of the bad news right yes or they say it's already been discounted in all right or people knew it was coming it's already discounted into the or they say there's some other big variable that we don't know what it is it doesn't matter so when you see people say the market moves because of x in your mind you should translate it into the following sentence
ball ball ball i don't know what the hell i'm talking about blah blah blah do you get that i just translated finance talking into actual human being talk i'll give it to you again it was a little complicated but it goes like this financial analyst tell me what do you think about the market today well i'll tell you president trump with his own why is terra force has scared the market and it is down one percent the market is down one percent because of our present scaring people about terms now if you're that the translation is translator i'll only a translator i'd like to translate that from
dale talk into human talk in human talk that means blah blah blah blah blah blah nothing nothing nothing blah blah blah alright hope you got that and i hope that doesn't become a screenshot meme dear god uh will political outrage getting better or well i think political outrage will be pretty high going into the mid term because the create sort of this safety valve that everybody's going to i think people to feel safe ramping up their hatred before the midterm because they're going to think about when the mid term comes it's all released all of our hang our anger that we're building up we're going to
actively use this to get out the vote and vote against these republicans and then and then we can feel good finally after a long trip in the desert we too who will be able to have water simultaneous steps simultaneously and then they're going to get to the mid term mike you know my guess is that the mid terms will be some kind of a mixed bag thing that doesn't change much but it could go either way it's hard so handicap or or guess about the midterms because so much of it is the individual matchups and i don't know enough about the individual matchups but if you have tearable candidates on one side it doesn't matter what else is going on uh do you think republicans will win the midterm i'm not going to make a prediction on that so
well i have one prediction about the mid term i made back in january ish and that prediction was that the republicans would do substantial better than whatever we expected them to do in january of twenty eighteen now didn't go so far as to say who would win or lose i just said republicans would do better than people expected back then that looks like that's going to happen because back then the numbers were like this right now they're closer to this so so far my prediction is right but i'm going to make a new prediction and you're going to hear it here are you ready i knew prediction about the mid term my prediction about the mid term is republican turn out for the mid term will be a record or at least the recent record you probably have probably have to
just that for whatever is the last twenty years or so 'cause you can't really compare anything to thirty years ago but let's say for the last twenty years or so i believe that the republican turn out will be a record and i plan to persuade in that direction now if there's wreck turn out i think that's just a healthy situation no matter how things go everybody everybody got to have their chance to have their there will be known but i think it's going to be a record turn out now predicting your own success i'm not sure what that means i do plan to oh yes i am predicting my own success because i already told you i plan to persuade tord high turn out and
the most persuasive thing i can think of is look at what's happening and they're going to come for you next you better make sure that your side stays in power because the only way you're going to protect yourself it's the only way you're going to keep the gains that you've gotten it's the only way the economy is going to stay strong and it's probably the only way that n korea keeps going in the right direction keep in mind that almost everything the president did that turned out well the other team would have done differently true story now how could the
that's totally run the table on this or i'm sorry how could the republicans on the table well i gave you a little tutorial about how politics should be more debate they should have some kind of a debate model if the republicans come up with that and present it and say look congress is broken you've all seen it we can't do these big complicated things like health care and immigration we're just is it is hard for us to get past the the log jam so we're gonna bump this up to the public and here's how we're gonna do it we'll have some debates there won't be a and then time will make sure that there's lots of fact checking by independent people as we go we will inform the american public to the point where they can help us push this debate one direction of the other if republicans did something like that they would have a commanding majority and i think that i think that they would
i think that they would dominate maxine waters just helped republicans somebody says yes so maxine waters by encouraging democrats to go after trump supporters of the in the in the administration probably the dumbest thing a politician over to and you know that's a pretty big that's a a b category you know dumb things politicians of done name one thing dumber then what maxine waters told supporters to do because if there's anything that's going to get people to the that's going to get republicans to the polls it's maxine waters telling people to harass republicans if you want to get them to the polls that's the way to do it now by the way compare maxine waters we're going to punish them how do trump supporters respond
they push back they don't like being pushed they push back compare that to my earlier story about the hawk newsome who is trying visibly to meet halfway to get productive real world solutions how did you know how to how do you respond to that probably by paying it back all right so let's let's go do something good today to keep positive thoughts and i'll talk to you all tomorrow
Transcript generated on 2019-11-13.