Good morning, everybody and welcome to not only the best place in the world at the best time, but also the safest. according to science. No one is died in World WAR three while watching this life streets, if you don't believe it do your own research you'll find out. Is and how to make sure that you're, safe as possible on the inside well as the outside world. my. Neither cover mugger, a glass of tiger tells us I'd accounting, jogger flask of vessel of any kind fairly with your favorite beverage. I like coffee,

and join me now of the unparalleled pleasure. The dope video David makes every damn thing better. It's called the simultaneous life from Switzerland could have year. Switzerland joined me now go so Switzerland, you feel a neutral now or you feeling Little more than neutral! Well, let's talk about all the things happening today see what is happening today. Checking oh world war, three broke out. What would be the definition of a worldwide. Wouldn't it be a war they involved? Basically, all the industrialized countries of the world in a substantial way,

Now, keep in mind that even in world war, two most of these is in population of the world did not get shot. Sixty million people die in World WAR two, so that's nothing, but most people had an impact fight actually or otherwise, and I think we're in World WAR three, because the the global financial markets, have decided to Hell with a global energy markets- and you can see the financial market start a closer than on Russia, which will probably impact energy which will impact all of us which all impact inflation, which will impact all kinds of stuff. I think we get a lot of fertilizer from Russia. There's a lot of grain that comes out of the Ukraine for the world, so.

Let those like there's on here, but would you agree with me? Would you agree with me that this could legitimately be called a world war? Three? Because I don't know how you define it other than a war that substantially affects everybody which is what's happening right now,. So yes, it out a matter of opinion We are, of course, in the fog of war, and I recommend you follow my concern. Whenever you were in the fog for one of the reasons is that you remind you over and over again, not to believe stuff there really. You should believe- and these do a good job that, especially during this Ukraine thing there. There are some things I think I've. I think I'm guilty of twinning.

Some things. There are probably not really accurate, and- and so he he's ok me keep my guard rules on this well, so follow as follows. Somebody who can remind you not to believe what you see for a while, I'm not sure you'll ever. He should never believe it. but for a while, it's real helpful to have people do that. So this quite services provided at the moment. So you're some things which maybe you should believe. But maybe you should. you remember. The video was Snake Ireland, the little island worthy the alleged ukrainian leaders said a few to the russian worship and russian worship kill them, I love that happened, but I can't believe it

when I first saw, but that after reading some sort of Crnkovich is tweets. I thought not necessarily I'm going to put that one in the maybe, but not not, I'm not confident enough in it to say that really happened, but it cut it. Maybe shouldn't change anything one way or the other, but Thus, the level of propaganda we're going to speaking of which is this propaganda orders, Marco Rubio, know something that you don't. So Rubio to either this yesterday. I wish. I could share more, but for now I can say it's pretty obvious to me that something is off with Boone He's always been a killer, but his problem now is different and significant. It would be a mistake to assume this burden would react the same way he would have five years ago now is mark

Ruby tied in to enough was the intelligence apparatus to know that he has good Intel from behind the scenes. That's it opening up with Putin, and he can't tell you how he knows it is that what's happening or. is marker Rubio engaged in propaganda, which would be quite product actually, because one would assume he had access to insider information. What committees is young workers will be a witch which committees is yes, there would give him access, and I'm not even sure I need to be other committee, because he could hear stuff without being other committee is the answer it until. Its foreign relations I well, I don't know- What our resolve these pressures on something that gives the nexus, however, use

not believe that he necessarily know something credible? What you should believe is that, even if he didn't know something credible, this is probably a good way to act. Because everybody saying anything in public, especially people are the big platform. Some kind of position like Rubio does, Are they neutral in this war? Is it? Is it Mark Rubio job, to tell you something accurate or surely Are you something that might be good for you grave, because as world WAR three? What is this obligation. In normal times, I would say, is obligation is to give it to us straight. does he have a bigger obligation to win the Alps, the good, the good guys over whoever the good guys are as good? those are not entirely sure what is the moral or ethical away to play this. If you,

Imagine that simply suggesting that was different? in whatever way you or to imagine which would be bad for food and whatever was maybe it doesn't need to be true? Am I right. because this is a very unique situation. This is one situation where, if Governments could lie to you Sometimes all you ask is that they had a good reason, now some of your absolute us about honesty, and I get that it's perfectly reasonable point of view. but in the real world. People also look at what the total impact of things is gonna, be in the total cost of things, and

it could be that our own government has decided that just bullshitting us totally on. What's going on, I be good for the world in somebody's legitimate opinions, so don't trust it automatically, and that brings brings me to me you're all watching this, and if you watch me for a while you I hope I have come to the conclusion that I will try to be objective, pretty much everything I'm not objective. On the question of Sentinel and China, but Why right fully transparent about that? However, I dont know if I could be completely unbiased in the context of literally being part of a world order

And so I'm gonna give you that warning that I feel, like is fair warning. Let me know if this goes too far, not far enough, I feel as if here. I can promise you that I will intentionally tried to be unbiased talking about Ukraine and Russia, and you can promise you that. But I want you to know that right. So, let's maybe there's no way to play this completely ethically, because those applicants thing to do would be whatever's. Neil helps the most people, but how do I know who knows? Maybe the truth is the only thing else we will. Maybe that would be a perfectly reasonable view. So just be cautious, just be cautious. When you listen to me on this topic the same way, we should be cautious about every other person.

Just bring the same scepticism do everything I say just now that you're doing it was my my full awareness and permission, This is one where you gotta watch me carefully again just so you know I did a pole on twitter. which again is my totally unbiased approach to this. Watch how unbiased I am. My pole, I gave people for choices, for what was the reason for Putin's apparent change. A lot of people say EAST is: we want to say that's true, but a lot of people are saying it marker, Rubio, being one. You see, Fox NEWS, pundits set and number peoples and I've sent as well. Just looks like it to me.

But eleven percent of people thought maybe drugs were involved. Eighteen percent said mental health. By the way this is another scientific pull. This is my twitter followers. Thirty six percent said it was just war. Propaganda, so would be people like me, people like Marco Rubio, maybe just trying to biased things with a suggestion, Liese he's insane And any respect that our intelligence agencies would be trying to do that as well. and then thirty six percent, I'm so proud of you I really am thirty. Six percent said confirmation by us is that a healthy side or what now? Of course, I primed to you by putting that choice there the first place, so it's not scientific,

and I probably for it, but still thirty six percent. I find that really encouraging, because it gives it means people are sort of hyper aware of that effect in a way that we were always aware, but there's really difference, there's a big difference between being aware that confirmation that exists and being hyper aware, which means you can even washes yourself, you can watch in real time. Oh that's confirmation by us, it's different, and I would say that something really really healthy is at least among the people are following me and that thirty six percent would just automatically go to that cuz. You know what, if you were going to bet. You know if you saw that the public release this limited.

different sample of the public. If you saw they answered and then I said to you are right now: no cash, your bet, if he has a magical, wait another truth later, which one do you bet on feel like I'd, better confirmation, buyers. Would you, but, even though that's not my opinion, my opinion, his drugs? My opinion is drugs because it looks like it, which is not a good enough reason. I saw a bidding. I guess my cumulative, Life's knowledge about why people change and how they change and what drugs due to people and walk out the people would be unworkable drugs. So I'm kind of bring together like a whole bunch of parts of my skill stack, if I can put it that way and in my opinion, is

my opinion sides with the smallest number of the public. That is drugs. That might also be mental health, but I'm sure drugs or love I would say the odds he's not on some kind of drug that is known to affect your cognitive or personality or something the answer that are really small, in my opinion, Doesn't mean it's whole story: there is less lotta variables and of all pretty sure drugs are involved. I think that's got to be one of the stories you on top of perhaps health issues. But if I had to bet on it, I would bet against myself that make sense if. But my actual money on it, I would bet against my own opinion that I hold quite firmly because I've also aware the confirmation biases.

it only right. I hate to say it Usually right. That's. Why is so important to know about it doesn't usually ride. So how about everybody is prediction. so far. Can I ask you in the comments. Was one other person in leave public domain, who told you that the russian Army might be surprised by the say, the effectiveness of the weapons that Ukraine would break

Ass? The invasion was or anybody else I told you. I think you might be surprised. I think it was just me. Oh six enamored it violence now in all caps being asked. Do you believe that in the end, Now now, when I read the stories say that Ukraine is is unexpectedly successful,. Is it too early to say that that's true? Yes, it's way too early because it took, I guess, a couple weeks for even the U S forces over what solution, Baghdad or whatever, so it actually could take a few weeks for a proper control of the city.

And the russian Army may have in some probes just to test the defence. And now there are assembling the resources they need, based on what I ve learned and it might take a week and the gnoles circle the cities and taken over that's boss. So do you believe the reports this seem to agree with your confirmation by us that Ukraine is is putting up a big fight and its working. What do you think? Ok solution was wrong wrong example. what do you think? I don't know it's a believe yet, but I would say is way too soon for me to say: yes, they were surprised by better weaponry than they imagined. However, how good do you think it anti tank missiles.

If, if somebody is hiding at a reasonable distance and the person hiding can see the tank, but the tank here see them right away. Does the type missile yet the tank most of the time. I mean is it pretty much one missile equals one tank give or take is: is the equals one one missile equals one, pretty much every time, because it seems to me If you could see a tag and This all knew how to find the tag. It would be hard to mistake attack with everything else. The thing that I have been speculating about is: is it possible to invade and hold a country that is a modern country?

That has access to unlimited modern weaponry because it's coming across the border and they have lots of friends. I feel as if she had to be done because I feel as if he would lead the advantage of the the troop transporters and leave the tanks and the heavy equipment to hold the country right and I think heavy equipment gets destroyed. If you have unlimited number of handheld anti tank stuff I saw a bunch of believe about how much got destroyed, haven't tanks and and transports stuff, and they look ridiculous. So I dont believe these numbers at all, coming from the Ukraine side, so I dont believe they killed forty eight hundred Russians that too high

don't believe they blew up. Seven hundred and six troop transport vehicles presumably withdrew settle I think the war would already be over, for us last seven hundred and six transport vehicles in the first four eight hours. So I don't believe those numbers. how many missiles do you think Ukraine has whatever they handheld anti tank? Things are called. How many do you think they have tens of thousands right. If they have tens of thousands of these shoulder mounted things and they They understand the landscape and they know exactly where Russia has to go to get where it goes. Does the letting Russia on the roads, we wonder why you claimed and try to stop at the border like? Why would you create leave a bridge where they can just cross into the country?

It looks an awful lot like they wanted Russia to bring their heavy equipment into the country. Why am I so bad at understandably military strategy that stupid it looks exactly like they soccer them into a killzone, meaning that there was no way this this heavy equipment. ever richer urban centre does We have to go through an unlimited number of of anti tank equipment. Now now also saying that maybe some turkish drones were used. I saw some footage, but you can't trust anyone don't trust, don't trust any military fully juicy coming others. So I don't know about that. But. How many of those where they have it. If Turkey have been providing drones than not positive, that's true how many

because assumes like they could have a lot Nobody ever talked about how much stuff you paid had defensively cuz. Maybe nobody knew ya. Turkey is NATO, but that doesn't mean that this is native involvement. Cuz anybody can sell weapons they may have just sold I assume the bridges over the diner poorer still there, so how many of you think it looks you crave soccer their heavy equipment in and they just turned it into a kill box and then at their just gonna. Take you. You know that looks like I'm saying lots of knows: that's a nose could be just there wasn't. A strategy is just the only thing we could do, because they couldn't stop at the border problem

Yeah I've been- maybe that's just a description of guerrilla warfare, so I suppose I am having nothing to. It is just a description of guerrilla warfare. Everybody knew that would be the strategy And Russia might have to run their supply line blindness right. So here's was interesting, really a lot of it's interesting in the tragic way if Ukraine can hold until Monday and markets open in Russia and that just all the russian financial assets tag which it looks like gonna happen that changes everything necessary, because I would show Russia that So the world wasn't gonna. Let it go.

Scott, Russia's holding capitulation talks with you crave right now. I don't think anything's going to happen with that. Do you, the russian stock market, is tiny. Somebody says well, Matters to Russia sure so I saw somebody here: tweeting realistic photos in discussions of all the russian billionaires yachts, the really expensive, multibillion mellow yachts at the Russian. I think the russian oligarchs are absolutely screwed at this point. Screwed, here's the thing you probably didn't see come in and I didn't see it coming.

But you know how we're talking about Russia is making a decapitation run that the whole boy was too decapitate the government. Am I wrong that Poland's Linsky are racing for pinks lips? At this point, the directive as an analogy landscape of voting are racing for pinks lips. What I mean by that is the lead. He is as close to owning Russia as Putin is the only Ukraine. You don't see that cabotage Let me ask you something else: hypothetically.

Isn't zaleski. Russian wasn't born in Russia. Can someone give me a fact Jacobin was the landscape born in Russia is in jewish background, but that's not as relevant at the moment. No south issue raised some places. All so actually doesn't matter. Remember Tal point- is the Russia Ukraine in the same country right? you where going with us. If he raised for pink slips and you lose and Europe your entire argument was that Ukraine and Russia in the same country, but you ve, got to leaders you guys landscape. You got Putin, but there's only one country, the race for paying slip.

I think the less he could, either literally or maybe by influence and of controlling Russia, is that insane You say: you're, not Saddam Hussein is likely likely to say this shifting percent likelihood. I'm saying you really care predict what happens with these things. If you, Nelson Mandela was gonna, be the president of South Africa. Suddenly doesn't look so crazy. Does it right that the person who is beaten, who pulp and survives ends up being a senator someday looking up here, the human, the Silver Rights movement needs, It's right if you get beaten to almost death, but survive good cheer.

You're gonna be in charge someday? just sort of the way it works. Now What are the odds? Russians would accept Zalewski as leader pretty low. What are the odds? If prudent failed? There wouldn't be just another oligarchy to take his place. Pray. I. Yeah, I think the odds are very small, but they exist. They actually exist. I think you re vanishingly small was Lansky would be actually literally, that of Russia, but Vanishingly small that his influence could decide who gets who gets the job? If Putin goes, I mean it could be that much influence at that point. Your ranting today, maybe not only, could be interesting On the question of, is, being a golden by this,

Taiwan and licking his jobs, which were weren't The smart people say just we can all this murky. People say, while this is gonna, be a double move. China's gonna see how easy this is, will make a move on Taiwan, but what why if it turns out the Russia, gets destroyed by those witches what's happening right now and March Niger pointed this out, either to eat that Ukraine shares a border with Russia, which makes invasion fairly practical but I want is an island, so you'd have to do a naval attack to control Taiwan. I mean you could, on the crap out of that, but to control that you need to do something on the ground to get to the ground. You ve got across water and, as Mark points out who used to

events submarines that Taiwan is an island. China would need to launch an amphibious assault and supplies will need to cross water and points out one piece: a hardware makes that difficult submarines. But in some areas are protesting Taiwan and how many would it take? And I asked mark this question: I would see the fears smiled again, but do we now if submarines beat Anti submarine or doesn't anti submarine, beat a summary in twenty two? They too is the best anti submarine better than the pretty good submarine or is the best submarine better than the best anti summary. Does anybody even now, because we have never had a war of the top submarines anyway? So I don't think we know so.

They be pretty hard for China to have any kind of a land assault, I'm starting to think that the importance of twitter and social media is way beyond. Even our greatest imagination, what I mean by that is I wonder: if social media s forms a sort of a self healing mechanism for exactly something like the Ukraine, Russia situation. Now, obviously things don't happen immediately like that takes while for them to kick in. What are you not watching social media move governments in real time? This was happening right. Is it a social media is not the news, as I don't think it's the people on the streets as many of them as there are because they haven't been their long enough making enough noise?

to really make a difference? But it seems to me that, because governments can immediately see social media, they can read the room you're fast, I think you're saying social media seeing a cancer which is prudent, attacking Ukraine. I think social media recognizes as a cancer on the body. you're watching social media actually, for a healing protective defensive shield right. because social media is what allows Germany to break its own rules and send you allow allow their deadly weapons to go into Ukraine, which this happened. Social media allowed banks and the swift thing to happen, or whatever is going to happen there, because

The world could tell the social media is going to support it. Am I wrong it didn't matter what everybody thought, because most people are paying it, In that it was social media thought, because they're, the ones really paying attention moving opinions are the ones who have the levers of society. So. We may be watching. they fairly miraculous, But also largely below our notice, which is that this is really a social media war with it the kinetic component, which starts only but I think, I think, the collective actions of the world,

as expressed through social media in real time, are having a huge effect on this, and I can't imagine this would have been true in any prior war of year. We will have anything, that's a good analogy to this relation so I guess the two big cities are pearly repelling attacks. a part is probably true, I think we'd know if any major city had fallen. So I feel like we do know that hasn't happened. Yet if it's gonna happen at all, So here is the most interesting story: evolving this vice president, the vice Prime Minister of Ukraine and the Minister of Digital transformation of Ukraine you tweet Elon Musk, be said what to colonise Mars. Try to occupy Ukraine while you're

successful levers, space, Russia, Rockets, attack ukrainian civil people. We ask, you know, he's talking directly to Elon Musk. He says we ask you to provide Ukraine with Starling stations. These are the satellites that mosques company has and to address the same Russians to stand. And within hours. I think your lung busk tweeted back Starling services is active in Ukraine, more terminals and route. You need the terminals to be able to access it, so they must be shipping lose him. That change things, or is that more imagination. I feel as if there is no way to hold conquer and hold a country under the following conditions, and I think he'll I must just provided the last of the conditions that are,

sorry number one- the entire world is on your side, yet not the entire world, but even China, doesn't seem to be on Russia's side there they're watching, but similarly nobody's on Russia's aside at this point really so this condition one that is satisfied, condition to You have borders which allow the rest of the world to ship an unlimited amount of of deadly lethal force, that is They have to have the willingness to do it in the ability, and they are that. Then you need communications because is the best weapons in the world are really that good. Even these great shoulder held tat things unless at least the military units can communicate with each other and say hey.

There's a unit coming this way. Put you put your defences here or there is possible that you, a mosque just provided the last thing that Ukraine needs to survive on top of incredible bravery, apparently in the leader whose pretty smart about this so far and is leading the way you would expect- or you don't believe it would leave now? Of course you also care believe anything about Zalewski Ever we hear about him, you should also put the same skeptical on. Don't don't believe is necessarily is awesome where we could find out anything later, but at the moment that's the narrative is holding once again, because my life is unusual, I became part of the story about you, learn Buskin, star link in the Ukraine.

It's the weirdest saying I'm just sitting here in my my office, where every day suddenly out tweets, And then I see a daily wire report. The talks about you learn Luskin STAR like in the Ukraine, said it mentions you half a dozen political commentators and it mentioned my tweet it which I said, push this button and changes the course of history. Of course, that's hyperbole takes more than pushing the button to get this. Yeah they gotta get the terminals. There's it's a pretty big operation. One one assumes, and I do think it will change the course of history, though, because once dictators can't control communications.

everything changes and if, if this is the way that the the resistance can communicate well enough to use the weapons that are being shipped him, it changes everything But you know it also changes. you learn mosque is in the fight now, so it gets better if you thought this was awesome. Just listen to this. So Russia's, Some space thing starts basically threatening

If Russia is sanctioned, etc, they might not have rockets to resupply the international space Station, because Russia had been supplying rockets on a commercial basis. Elon musk tweets back at him, Spacex. That's it just the brave like like a logo Spacex, because if you are paying attention you learn mosques. Space Ex company has found out. get stuff in space cheaper well at least safer than the russian option. Isla mask not only provided communications for the year of the ukrainian rebels. At about the same time, he took out the entire russian space programme because of Russia.

sell salad services, I'm not sure they can afford to do it anymore. So Musk takes away their ability to charge outrageous amounts, one assumes to put stuff in space because he can do a cheaper. you'll. I must just took Russia outer space. Maybe they mean yeah this hyperbole right, but maybe I mean follow the money. How did they compete if he has a better solution? It looks he does do you know who doesn't bluff Alot, Elon Musk. It doesn't bluff alot because its he seems to build a Baxter. up way know this isn't even the most important part of the story. Do you know what happens when you love? Musk goes all, and everybody else does,

Because it looks like he's usually right, this feels, like it's safer, knew he made a safer. We also is unambiguous about. It is very clear about is a pitiless right by his actions, he's very clear, so I think that women you must go in influences governments. What do you think? I don't think anybody miss this story. I think it influences governments. I heard that There is a pipe a gas pipeline that got blown now, and again are very sceptical about the story. For obvious reasons, apparently

Ukraine say that Russia blew up a gas pipeline in near I conceive largest psychological largest city. Now I've been asking why the Ukrainians don't threaten to block pipelines and people kept saying other too well protected, but the report is that the Russians did it. Now. I don't believe the report in part, because I don't know why they do it cuz. It seems like more something Ukraine would do. I do. I guess the question of whether a pipeline be. Blown up may have been answered, so at least this one was maybe again don't believe it

even Switzerland is starting to have protest. Twenty thousand people protest and burns whistle and because the government didn't put sanctions on Russia, yet their banks, even even Switzerland, is not neutral, at least the citizens. I think the country is still there The citizens are mad at their own country for not being neutral on this. by Years- something even more interesting. Let's call them money twitter that the people who know the most about finance and also a big social media followings have also the fight and what happens when you see these names may not be as familiar to you if you don't follow finance. How many of you know Bill accident the Lackman had of giant hedge fund

So when he talks the the financial press, almost always reports anything, he says So is important enough, though. Talks about anything financial. It's in the news. and why you treated today was I wouldn't want money, the banks? They can access the swift system once a bank can't trust. receive funds from other banks is solvency can be a risk. If I were russian, I would take Beaumont. Now bank runs good, big in Russia on Monday, and then he hashtag, stand with Ukraine now remember Everybody's in the fight, so I wouldn't say that this was bill, act and being completely objective in describing the situation, although maybe I mean objectively, I don't think he's wrong, but the reason for it

Is influence you see one of the top guys and finance directly try to take down the russian economy, does if he says, is going down and you should get your money other bank, you should frickin. Listen to that right. Let me put it this way. If Bill Lackman told me To get my money out of my bag, I'd be in my car now, of course you have to assume also use this as an influence operation. you're, something that novel said today: who's in the investing community in the United States, will recognize of all. he said that we did our ukrainian forces benefiting from higher moral superiority agents of NATO making positive social media cycle, and he goes on. Russia has already lost the media war and the economic war males, the physical or two.

Do you know what happens when Laval tells you? You just lost an economic war. Again, though, you might not familiar was Novalis, you might not be simply was bill Lackman, but the people who move large amounts of money sure know them there. And the people who large amounts of money if they here of all say that Russia already lost the economic war and they your bill ACT and say get your money back today in Russia, But there are not the only people saying this, I'm saying oh you're, saying social media. for me, propaganda. Propaganda offensive weapon that is in all likelihood, gonna take down the russian economy on Monday,

this is many of these. Are civilians people I just mentioned civilians by social media gives civilians gigantic influence if the topic fits low civilians now civilians, in this case The people who know the most about economics and finance in the you're the likely direction of business. Some of the smartest ones in the business just told you, Russia's in trouble on Monday did have I ever Do the economies are mostly psychological engines. Peers who comment Solon Louis, my point so economies or psychological engines, and so they can be taken down by psychology, so awaking bear says.

Scott you're, acting like all these things, you're describing we're not fully expected by Russia. Now, I'm not acting like it, I'm pretty sure that they didn't expect all of it. I believe that they expected a lot of it and I think that their expectations have now been exceeded. I believe that the financial impact will be almost certainly almost certainly more than It could have anticipated now we're in the fog of war. As as the comments reminding me remember, you have to keep me honest it right as many As I remind you not to believe anything about this situation, keep reminding meeting.

Right, everytime? I say somebody with some certainly feel free in the comments to say but Fargo or does that's always the right thing to say. However, it's not my imagination, the people who know what they are talking about in the financial world are persuading against Russia's economy. I'm not imaginary, lad, not imagine that the economy is built on psychology, that's not imagination, not imagining. the entire world, minus China sitting out, seems to be against Russia. At this point, I am not I'm looking at things you agree with this- is really really dangerous for russian really dangers, and I dont know that potent could have ever imagined it would go this far. I'm surprised. Are you

So now I think, is also fair to say the when the top financial experts seems fairly unified at this point in saying that the sanctions the way it was only twenty four hours ago that we said the sanctions were toothless right, Gimme, a fact check on this one day ago: common knowledge was the sanctions were toothless today. Again factually today. People are asking on social media. What happens, if Russia falls this week financially and may be politically and the and the nukes are now secured in one day we were. From saying the sanctions were toothless, just saying it could bring down. Russia in a week fact check me: they're really happened

Now I ve not just swift, because There was also what was it the who is at the head of the ECB, if the EU, whatever apparently even the retired banking system in Russia is just could be crashed by international action. Not just swift, but Swift is bad enough. Even even though swift carved out some of the energy things, it looks like the other financial and banking restrictions are just going to close down the country. Now. Why should you be saying to me right now. bullshit right. So what you should be saying is Scott. You dont know if these sanctions are really gonna, be those wrongs roses. There's always a work around and they got some.

some reserves and hey they had to Spain it it nobody in this respect. What happens when the first bullets why nobody can? The alive you you know of is the safest prediction. Anything involving a war? Is you don't know, what's going to happen, the safest protection? So fine? It's the financial markets, don't like uncertainly, so there definitely not been alike so here is what I would be looking for. I would be looking for other people who were financially astute and have a high profile to tell you that Russia's economy is in trouble on Monday. That your assignment for today is to see how much of the USA passing, media or even sociability. Let's see how many of them away and.

How many times will see you then have somebody on who says you know these financial sanctions really are going to take down Russia, because even our our news, business there in the war Do you know how often I criticise either for your bullshit propaganda, like basically every day. But now right now I will I'm gonna, put a total moratorium on criticising CNN nor MSNBC about you. Grave, so long as there are bullshit is in the right direction. Because I think you're gonna see see then pretty activated by whoever controls. Then these days, who knows whether that's our intelligence agencies or that the present, whoever but they're all the same side this

Which is CNN was Russia. Do not succeed in Ukraine when you read. Wouldn't it be shared is either that nobody is here, then, is unbiased about Ukraine. Note Nobody Fox news that may be more obviously right, but Fox NEWS and You then, are on the same side wishes on my side, and I think your side too, which is we don't want Russia to succeed in Ukraine, so. this might be the only way in which at least I may look at the other coverage that they do on other topics. But if CNN, tells you that Ukraine, Ukraine, is willing, I'm just go. Let them go. Let it go

just in your mind, you might want to play a little recording this as you do under normal times. He would tell us that was bullshit, and I would these are not normal times it we're at war. And if I see an end is making Russia's economy look shaky because in the way, their framing the news, for you or were on the same side on this, and if you don't think that public opinion is what will change the course of the war. I think Europe. Many people in this room that so here's here's. My assertion My assertion is that as long as the Ukrainians can hold off the Russian from a quick victory. as long as a tie it looks like it might be, can say that for sure,

like it might be a tie for awhile As long as a tie, the economy is the war. Would you agree with that? part of the reason, as long as the military is locked up, however long that takes the economies where the real wars Ed Ruscha can't win the economic or the Canton Walmart. So if you were going to predict where this goes, it all depends on probably Ukraine holding for another few days, at which point I don't know how many days it would take, but but there is a point at which the russian Oligarchs and Lee the other Putin are gonna, except the the path that we have given them, and when I say we I mean problem, the CIA and me

Marco Rubio. anybody else who sang in any public way something different about Putin way. This is really about Russia is it. This is about potent Eliza TAT, gives the russian people away out that an accident I think, is an accident. that the way out is rewrite So all this was never Russia against Ukraine, This was always something about Putin. He changed what we are working to accept your your explanation that something about him snapped. We're gonna get rid of them ourselves, because now we just have to now here's the question: how hard would it be for Russia under any amount of pressure to depose Putin. I assume you gotta, printing, a grip on things at this point. Well,

it probably depend so crazy looks to his own people. Don't you think, it may be seeing a version of him. The looks even crazier than what word old. It's also possible, he's perfectly safe and that everything were hearing is fake, perfectly possible and that's what you like servage should be reminded you once an hour today. So terrible comment on local spoon luck, so social media is weapon. I ensures another thing that I think make certain of it said to eat and boy does it look like this is something I have said before as well that were so we're so primed by move,

and fiction that we see real live events in three three part movies movie with reacts. Tell me that the with his sir, we don't. I dont need transportation. I need among and then you're going to lead his people tell me there has ever been a better third act, like it because imagine if you will, the things goes, Olenska is way say, he's survives very much and out at the moment will say does And Russia falls earliest Putin can't hold power because it's just went too far. This would be a perfect movie

The three act movie so is key, is right in the middle of the third act in which it looks impossible impossible that he could win. But imagine the move script where the other in the bunker and view the russian Army, as is is closing in communications are falling and it's all falling apart. and then he starts getting good news like a shipment of anti tank missiles just arrived, and then Elon Musk puts up starlike amid this is a perfect movie script. Oh I don't mean to make light of it, one in pointing out saving the sort of each pointed out. is that our brains are just primed to see things as us react movie and- and we're see this as the third act and here's the years why this matters this, isn't this isn't trivial.

This is why this matters, if you see it as a three act movie, your psychology will get into that pattern just automatically, and this react movie is telling us as Alinsky wins. That doesn't mean it makes sense. That's what the boom is telling us that the three act movie has already been activated in her mind. To tell us The landscape winds, and not only does we win, but it takes potent down because ass the best movie right. now. What happens when everybody expect something that not everybody boat but will sail a majority? People expect something happened. They end up may hear happened. It becomes self fulfilling, because this goes to the morale of the russian soldiers. It goes to the morale of the

Gray means it goes to the Ngos to does Elon Musk involved. It goes to do the Europeans get tough, it goes to do we ever let Russia blackmail Europe again. Those all that The cleverest thing I saw again, who knows if this is true So this is another report put your sceptic had on, but the report, was that the russian conscripts YO nineteen year old soldiers or just confused and surrendering in masse Now, that's exactly the kind of story that is unlikely to be true. It could be. But when you hear one side, especially the side, this has a smaller military force say that the one with the big military force are surrendering mass, probably not, maybe not yet, but maybe in some cases now. Here's the ears

The good story is that the Ukrainians, let the captured russian soldiers, the nineteen year olds, phoned their mothers just think about that, and then then, that report was in the news they let they give them. Phones And told them to phone their mothers. Now I don't know much about russian culture. Maybe somebody can help me out here there. Our cultures and which, if the If the grandmothers in the mothers get involved, that's just the way things are gonna go now I've been told by somebody in the black. Second culture, that we always forget how powerful the grandmothers are, the mothers and grandmothers that they're. Actually you the lever that moves everything if you let them.

And I wonder if this is this approach of giving them? others in Russia involved might be kind of brilliant. Imagine if every captured soldier is allowed to call, because you know the mothers reaction was when they got a call from their captured son. The mothers reaction was, they didn't know that there were there or why they just found out do you think word is gonna get around now again. This could be another sign up, and pro and maybe there were no russian soldiers that ever got captured and allowed to go home. But why not? I mean I'm sure, they're cash resolve

I would let them all call home when you, it seems pretty smart, psychologically cuz. I don't think the russian public is up for killing people who look like Russians and talk like Russians. I just I feel like the russian Army, is got the morale problem of all morale problems and we're probably a day away from Ukraine successfully cutting their supply lines by Wednesday. There's a good chance that the russian supply lines are toast and their economy is in the dust spiral that totally possible by Wednesday and again twenty four hours ago. Everything looks completely opposite.

What is it? What is the likelihood that I can predict what will happen on Wednesday? Anybody anybody, you wanna Jonah, maybe take me down the peg, because I deserve it right now They can predict this. Nobody if it sounded like. I was confident of what was going to happen on Wednesday in the Ukraine. There should have been a recording playing and you had. This has lice, I was confident, but nobody can predict this. Nobody can predict no, I don't know the only thing. I think I'm going to be right about that one. Wouldn't let me ask you it's too early to know, so I'm not I'm not going to claim being right, but I think I,

I'll. Be in that claim. Is that the russian Army didn't they didn't estimate properly? How effective the the weapons would be that the greens had access to. So I think that part I've gotta be right about, and I dont know anybody else who said that that that there would be surprised by the young, the modern weaponry that was put it. The. U S, Intel Community blew it again today. but will matter in the end we don't know. That's all. Maybe we'll know one Wednesday did you S. Intel causes depends, depends what you mean by causing.

There is a question: what percentage of all of Russia's complete military capability for the entire country is employed in Ukraine or or less aid bogged down?. Obviously that I have seen estimates of how much percentage of the arms he put in the theater two thirds, I think two thirds is how much has been deployed from near by the stuff. There was in the theater, but it is not so we say twenty five percent, thus once in those so maybe twenty five percent of his military force. What he's got a lot of military, I think, is closer to fifty. Don't you?

Do you think they both here's? What there's no way to know this unjust, totally talking through my ass right now, but simply to take us a purely from the perspective of somebody who's got experience in large organisations became so no it knowing nothing about the military and not trusting any information. Coming. I going say something that I think would be generally true. Generally true that Eighty twenty rule applies pretty much everywhere it everything. There are exceptions, of course, but I think this is one it here's where this applies. My bet is that if you look at all of the military equipment that Russia has that twenty percent of it is really good stuff and eighty percent of it, maybe not so good

How many would agree with me so far and that that wouldn't even be does silly a statement about Russia? It would be a statement about any large organization, twenty percent really good stuff. Eighty percent that now, given the importance of this battle, do you think Putin put his just a general average equipment in the field, or did he put his good stuff there like as much as he could gather? What are you I'm saying some people say average. Do you think that you do? because you save some good stuff for in case China, attacks on his other border. he had literally no other use for the good stuff. Am I wrong?

He's not defending any other place, he could put all of his good stuff in Ukraine. So here's what I think- and this is just basin knowledge of big organizations and how they lie in how they do things. if you think twenty percent of his military might is dedicated to Ukraine, that that's what it looks like on paper, but that is probably closer to seventy percent of his capability, because it's all of his good stuff did you send the bad general? Or do he send his bestial? Did you send is bad special forces or the best ones, Is using the dumbest miss or is it using all of his good ones,. because I even saw somebody suggested run out missiles, what is possible

Can Russia run out of missiles? I mean the good ones. Can they run out of missiles by like in a week, some experts said that that didn't sound possible to me, but maybe. So, knowing that everything about everything is a lie, knowing what you know about big organizations. How many are willing to side with me on the fact that, if it looks like Russia put twenty five percent of its military there, it's probably closer to seventy five percent or something, and then the neighbourhood of their abilities. I'm going to be asked is because I would be consistent with everything you know, but everything around like a less. I think it's true. Unless everything we know about everything is wrong because every

you know that everything suggests they put their good stuff there. I don't know I would worry about the fact that he's activated his nukes or at least his nuclear force, not the nukes itself, so that, ladies and gentlemen, is the best show you're going to see today on the topic of Ukraine. I don't think will be any disagreement. If there's anything we can all agree on. This is the best content you ve ever seen and unjust GSM. Let's just say that competition is pretty low. So I think there is a tremendous job and, as always,. I say this not to patronize you, but

The only reason I can do what I do ask us, the live viewers are doing with their due to the fact that this is interactive is what makes it work and that your fact Jackie me in real time that makes a big difference Scott would do well to watch wag. The dog I feel like us and in pc common now add that to soil in green and the matrix like anybody, you think said. First, all anybody thinks I'm not familiar with that movie. What kind of weird,

there be because this is a popular reference and even if you didn't watch the movie, you would know what it was about so CS somewhere that tell you crazy, negotiate. Peace was Russia. Well. I don't know a piece looks like her. What anybody would have two to to agree, but that's often today- and I will talk you tomorrow- thanks Youtube for joining me today-.