Good morning. Everybody congratulations for making here whether you're alive or potentially time delayed still it's quite in the camp and the rest, your diagnosis, swimmingly as listed goes you now that you know that and if you like, to take up a level probably do you seem like that kind to people. here. The kind of people were not satisfied with a normal life. Now you need the simultaneous. and all you need for that was a couple of under glass at angered elsewhere, the canteen your closet, vessel of any fellow with your favorite beverage I like coffee enjoyed. We now for the unparalleled pleasure is called the dopamine here today,

everybody's college, and something is happening now go Ashland. Oregon says I well hello, Ashland them so good of you. Well, today, I lost all respect for myself and. I know I know you are already there. I'm just catch. With the rest of you, but I have to say, as recently as last week, I still maintain a shred of respect for myself. May not have been warranted, but it was there, as of today, I can confess that I've lost all respect for myself I welcome you to join me. If you're not already there here's a reason. I feel.

like we're all monetizing the misery of the ukrainian people, as well as the the russian people at this point, and It starts out you're just talking about it, This is the important thing to talk about right, like the beginning come makes. Complete sense is morally and ethically appropriate. People want to be informed, but then that, quickly morphs into just merging with your business model. Yoke is my part of what I do yours monetize by ads on on Youtube. I'm thinking you now I got here innocently, but I think I drifted into this situation where I like billions of people around the earth already are sorted dehumanizing. The Ukrainian.

almost looking at it like it is a movie yours and entertainment, or something and I'm I'm not joking, I feel actually disgusted with myself and la joking. If you want to feel the same way about me, I can't talk you out of it. because here we are, but what do we do about it? Do I just stop talking about it? I'm not sure, that's really a solution, so we press on and I guess I'll try to be helpful. If I can find some way to be hopeful that somebody, I guess all flail around- for that but I just want you to know I'm terribly uncomfortable tour.

About something so horrible, like in the form of entertainment. I don't want to do that it cuz, I don't. I don't think you want me to stop or you wouldn't be here and I don't feel like stopping. But is terribly wrong so if, if somebody comes up with a better way to handle this, please let me know. There's a little news bubble test. I gave people on Twitter. I think many of you passed it, but I was wondering what people outside of your bubble What say? Here's what I said now because I don't want to get banned from Youtube. I don't have to worry about locals, of course, but I don't want to be bad. Youtube, so says his way. This week we heard reports unless a history, but we heard reports that there

election irregularities in Wisconsin and if the, if those turn out to be true, then tromp was we write about the twenty twenty election? Now we also about these eichelberger money that went into a battleground states. We are about recently that so that looks like it was illegal, which actually would look like a rigged elections in some people's. Your definition of what that would mean so in the last week Trump has been, we can say for sure, but Certainly, the reporting has turned to more, like he's right than these wrong, the biggest thing in the country for less

oh you're in half, and the entire narrative turn directions that also most people about it. Do the Avonlea Democrats. Do you think no? No, there was concern is got a lot of questions to answer and that Sucker Burg is being accused release them. Whatever happened utterly individuals, but at least the how the money was used, looks like a crime at this point hasn't been proven in court. But the reporting is just sort of I was gonna where it is now We also say that there was more reporting in the past. We, the Trump, was right about climate change being a hoax.

No, not in the sense that the science is necessarily wrong. Cuz, I think the science, a probably guess at least the part about humans warming- the planet. I think they probably get that right just so. You know where I'm at in this conversation right. I think they get that right. I don't think they get right how bad it will be because they can't predict Technological changes, all kinds of stuff like that, so I think they'll be terribly wrong about the outcome of it, but I think the word world is getting warmer just seen. The others just background for this conversation. What we learned that a lot of the the opinion about nuclear power was driven by russian propaganda. So a lot of the fear of nuclear power. literally was funded by the Russians, so that

Can sell more energy and we would become energy independence with nuclear energy, so indeed you I'm not gonna, say tromp was right when he said it was a chinese hoax guess who knows what using, on that, but I think the reporting should at least acknowledge that the way the way the country is responding to climate change is literally based on a hoax, a russian hoax, about the dangers of of nuclear and that the Russians were pushing weapon, Everybody the go green because if you went greenly still needed a lot of oil and gas, so the greater they could make you, the more dependent knew would be on in the wild, which is so cynical and so right at the same time anyway. I didn't see much of that in the General NEWS.

And certainly Trump was completely right about energy policy. We do see that in the news of the right, but I don't think the people in the laughter here area do you think Democrats are hearing. You know if Tromp I've got what you wanted, which was energy independence from the russian oil We at least be moving in that direction. Love faster, but it also getting credit for that. So the number of things that tromp was completely right about, or so rightly you need to at least update the story right. Are you not completely right about some of this stuff? Yet who knows? but he's right enough. They do need to update. I think, if you being honest man but the news bubbles would,

from happening and, of course, we all like to play W W teach do, which is what would trump have done? What would trump have done with this Ukraine situation? Well, we don't now, but definitely Putin and trumpet indifferent relation And tromp was definitely a deal maker and a practical person and an anti war person. I feel like we would have been in a different place. Maybe worse right here. You can really predict these things, but I feel like Tromp would have said something like. If the only issue as you dont want NATO in Ukraine, If that's the only issue, I'm gonna call your bluff I'll call you

as the yalu. We won't board NATO in Ukraine and then see if Boolooroo withdraws its forces Because that was the obvious play, the obvious play was to just call his bluff and say now there were surrounded by your entire military. Ok, we're We all sign. The document says that Ukraine will never be a NATO and I wouldn't be that anything goes. You can always just turned up. If you change your by later, we could do you think the trump would not have thought of the idea of giving a potent nothing the a piece of paper just to see if it causes bluff and that he was Ross's is, is military? Might Let me know what the obvious play so obvious, and you know I think Trump would have done, but of course we you know when you're playing. What would trump have done? You is just guessing

nobody knows that now the other possibility is a trump would use this, I am track that Putin is using, which is fear, persuasion. you know I've got some Luke's, maybe maybe you better not be helping. Ukraine goes. I've got these Russia nukes. I mentioned that. I have nukes. So right, so burden is doing a really good job of persuading and So far. Our response to that has been what is being called the adult response. Where were. Confirming that we're not escalating any of our nuclear alerts. So, instead of meeting him yell nuclear tit for tat, We're like? Oh, I don't know you have to worry about that, we're not even playing lagging, thereby be. That might be

actually the right way to play this. Maybe I don't know the trump what to play this way. I think because Trump always dozen, whatever you think he's gonna, do ends of doing something different, which is part of part of why it was that a lot of stuff, I thing Trump would have offered to annihilate the entire russian army. And he would have solved the threat. I think you would have said and he was sold it because you never quite sure what Trump would do. I feel safe, that he wouldn't do crazy. You were like things cuz. I was so opposite. His personality is very anti war, but I definitely think he could have convinced Russia that he would have done it and I

still plenty of u dot SA plenty of runway to back off from the nuclear war. You know it's, the threat didn't work still had wasn't like it was going to launch. So I know I think a deal maker could have made this work Better persuade our economies something work. somebody who had shown more respect to Putin and past might have come in handy. This might have been exactly The time the somebody had more of a less so it lets say the ego free relationship with Putin might about exactly the right person right time. You never know you never know, I'm not going to claim that Trump would have done better job. We don't know that, but it wouldn't look deaf,

I think we could say that for sure and since what we're doing now doesn't seem to be working, I dont know that doing it differently. What about words? Maybe it would just would have been another thing that didn't work in Europe. so. There's listen, fake news Bell, Lindsey Gram today, Lindsey, Graham, I guess called for the russian people to take out their own leader, presumably through assassination. Some in the social media sphere are framing lead, as the grim calling for outside powers to maybe assassinate which would be a big problem. but you didn't say that which would be crazy. He did. You did say that the russian people might have to take care of it and see only wound, which is actually just a statement of fact,

persuasion, because you can tell the he's trying to put that idea in their heads. So I think, anybody who, I didn't have the same bad reaction to this little lotta people did. Did you. how many of you think the Lindsey? Graham, if you, if you judge this, only from a persuasion perspective that he just wants to put their seat of a thought in the russian public mistake or not a mistake when you think steak or not a mistake most people is a mistake right, I'm going to say unclear I'm gonna give this one fog of WAR Agraria Mark, because for us all I know you don't like everything the lives in ever done, but

we agree is reasonably smart. He understands persuasion. For example, I think he does. But I dont think that this cost anything and it might have produced something so I think that if he says hey, we should do this little idea in the russian public's mind, it does at least make. The strategy of the United States make a little bit more sense, keeping the pressure on the russian people until the russian people take care of it. So at least that would be an integrated, coherent strategy. If you take out the part where the russian people have to change their own government to get out of their own pain, then what we're doing doesn't make a lot of sense. Does it you almost have to complete the whole picture. To be honest about it, so in one sense I think Lindsey Ground was just being honest this,

machines, are not about changing pollutants, mind the sanctions or about changing the public's mind and the public will change Putin's mind one way or another. I don't think there likely to happen frankly. Do work Dammit you derailed me. I just saw a question on Youtube: what I've, Trump and and Trumpet Putin agreed to meet best idea. I've ever heard not a chance as long as by president. That's not going to happen, but it would be. I think it could work and my crazy well here. I am crazy and uninformed. But the thing that Trump brings to every situation is shaking the box. No matter where he goes, you started thinking about

all situation differently. Assume is as soon as you have it that variable the truck variable so If our situation is that were stuck everybody's trapped. and the only logical outcome of everybody being trapped in their position. Is the loss of ukrainian citizens get killed. A sort of where we are. What is best strategy, when everybody is locked in their positions of doom shake the box shaped the box, you don't know your GAD, so less dangerous, but it might be better than doing nothing if you know that you're locked into a position of doom. we alone shake it so hard, but I would say that Linsey Grams call for the russian people to take care of their own government

really just a statement of the obvious that that's really the point of the sanctions, because nobody thinks that Putin himself is going to change. Things does the thing. Prudence can say: oh look at my suffering country. I think I'll help them out. I mean, I do say, keep Allianz empathy for his own country like I'm. Not so I'm not so brainwash, they think Putin doesn't love his own country or the people, and I think he does. so I'm gonna give Lindsey Grammy a passing randomness. I know this is gonna, be in part, but I think you didn't say anything that is an obvious. He did complete the strategy from why the sanctions could work. I don't think

well, but at least gives you a path that they they it might make things worse. I'm not even saying it's a good strategy to change change. Leadership get somebody worse. Maybe the nuclear weapons become unstable. Amelia could be really really bad. but at least at school system, so the law of unintentional consequences play again mosque the warning on Twitter that Starling these system there he is provided to the Ukrainian so that they can have some We in the commission is now the only non russian communication system, the still working and you could in some parts of Ukraine, not all of it and some parts. And he warns that if that's the only community issue system. They used, it can be identified, digitally and targeted.

And here is literally saying: don't stand near one did here. Did you hear that you are who provided these starling the ground based components he says: don't let people stand near them because are probably going to attract missiles. As I see that common did you. So then the other things I worry about is, I don't know how hack a bullet is but even even must seem to see think that now everything's act well, I guess So what happens if all of the vital communication that the ukrainian military is doing what if it's over one network. We're all of actors can concentrate all other hacking and do you. Russia already can hear every communication of the ukrainian resistance.

Yes, the only thing they have to use the starling. Doesn't Russia know exactly what they're saying by now or is it not hackable in in that fashion? Maybe is hackable if you want to take it down, but I don't know if it's hackable in the encryption sense So that's love, unintentional consequences. It could be these starling I'm not saying this weapon, but the startling could be the thing that finishes. The resistance could be the thing, the saves them. But even Moscow saying watch out, the others could work the other way. I take that very seriously alright Rasmussen did Paul asking american adults if they think that Russian evasion of Ukraine is likely to earth the american economy and three quarters of american adults. Think it would. What do you think.

let's do short term and long term short term Zizi short term. It hurts the american economy. Everybody agrees with us, right. Basically, everybody's economies got her they'll, be individual companies that may be made money, but everybody's academy schoolwork. Now you can't be a good economist. If you only look it's shorter. What about the long term? What if the outcome of this is that Russia is bled dry economically by trying to hold and control Ukraine, which looks almost impossible at this point I mean they can conquer it, but to really keep it pacified is gonna, be so expensive. I don't know we'll do it now. At the same time, they ve got the sanctions, but they ve got the workarounds. We don't after work grounds will beat the sanctions or if new sanctions will be the work around the sort of the case of good pitching beats good beheading advice,

so probably there's gonna, be a back and forth for while, But in the long run, what if what happens in the long run is it makes Russia less competitive? That could happen. what, if it makes Russia just a smaller country, smaller economy, because they just can't break out of the the sanctions enough to grow, they may survive, Maybe they can grow well. That would defend their military eventually and they would become less of a threat over time right so Could it be that our our people in say the CIA, I'm sure they ve done every kind of prediction estimate about this. Do you think our CIA is whoever does or economic predictions, because they must have simply doing that?

Do you think the CIA is economists believe that this is a good long term. Investment to do basically make sure that Russia is bled dry and the war instead of just I didn't win easily because we could have gotten out of the way NATO could have not let weapons could have not supported, and it would have probably been the quicker job, and I don't know worse, for the ukrainian people, maybe maybe not worse. I don't know can't tell. but I'm not so sure. If I had to guess- and I would remind any new people here- I do have a degree of economics. I've got an mba from top school, but you, your qualifications, Hungary, really to helpful, is doing this kind of analysis.

Cuz, there's no day that you can rely on and not at all. So you really just guessing based on general kinds of you know the truth. General truth: if you're at war, you're, probably not gonna prosperous, much servant, general truth I feel in general that this good cripple Russia for decades economically. And maybe the? U S get some advantage from that. Maybe your energy company is problem. But I dont think you would have been a good idea as a purely economic investment, but is unknown others gonna go for us.

To give you an update on Ukraine, ears was new and I'm gonna prime you for my predictions to come, because I think we have. We know enough that we can make a reasonable protection about the end game. What do you think before I give him before he gets my predictions? Do you think we know enough now where we can kind of reasonably assume what the endgame looks like Vesuvius say now. Ok that I want to change might so uncle. Whilst others are essentially that's a mix. I was here we do, but yours and get a prime you first. So I guess Putin is securing land bridges and ocean access, which is a sort of war, talk way of saying that, Putin's military is sort of surrounding and enveloping everything that matters.

So, while he's not crushing everything in Ukraine right away, he is based please almost already surrounded everything that matters so. That's good there was attacked and nuclear plant is the fire was not part of the year was a related building, but it wasn't. Sounded worse than it was, but the Russians have control of that now. Apparently there a war crime attacking nuclear facility is literally a war crime and put it in could have been really really bad. Depending on what happened there, but it wasn't so far to see what else do we ve got to

here's the persuasion, war update. Would you say the Olenska still winning the persuasion, war, I'd say so means doing a great job. I dont think anything. We're seeing and of Ukraine is real, like it's all of the anecdote or are just now real and everything you think about the landscape is starting to look like hero angel kind of a creature. You got that's making me think. I'm starting to suspect the opposite: isn't Ukraine supposed to be the most corrupt government was or one of them is one of the most corrupt gum? now a bizarre Lansky was probably in anticorruption guy right, but are there any reports? This alleged himself is dirty

ever seen. What have you I've never seen any any suggestion that he personally was corrupt, but they're always is, I guess, every lyric assent. Ok, I'm seeing some people say asked why what are the odds then is just to corrupt regimes fighting each other, and we should just get in the way I mean that's one way to look. That's not my opinions, but one we look at our right, so Zalewski, I don't know they use the angel hero. That he's made out to be it's. Definitely winning the persuasion or just on the basis of persuasion, he's totally selling the story. He seems to be rallying, the country has to put up a fight, so I guess he's completely succeeding. There.

interestingly, the biggest pushed against release the? U S provoking any escalation of war, especially with? U S, assets where people are. The end and then some social media. Are you following that? There are you in all the names you follow. The same people There are some big voices on social media were, pushing very hard to not be dragged into war by stupid, narratives and fake news and every other provocation and I feel like that is such a valuable service, Green Walled, pacific talker, girls, and so that those who was using the most somebody says Jesse Kelly Jimmy Door.

Barnes, yeah, Colonel Macgregor as easy lots of people pushing for no more. I think that's desperately healthy. but here is one way to look at it. If Putin is right, the historically speaking Ukraine and Russia are the same country. Did we just provoke or trick Putin into attacking zone country because he thinks Ukraine is his own country. is actually at war with his own country, and I think I mean does obviously not with the Ukrainians believe or the United Nations. So a lot of people on the other side that conversation, like almost everybody but. it is an absurd situation that he actually is at war with his own country, and I believe,

The west provoked him to do that, which is you have to wonder how much of that was intentional. So we are the NATO rejected air cover. One way to look at that is a NATO definitely doesn't want any part of this war with Russia. That's not how I interpret it. Here's how I interpret NATO rejects providing recover. I do think that real and that they will continue to reject air cover, but I think there are public pronouncement of it is air cover for the fact that there are already way too involved. Feel item iv. For some reason, Russia and the United States have evolved this idea that You can do anything to each other if you can lie about it successfully fool early, somebody will you does

Now to be a good lie, like cyber attacks I don't know you talk about what was cyber attacks like to see that roof Right so then, the cyber attacks are going full strength, probably both directions: how about spies, spies. What do you think? The? U s: s, spies and our embassy in Russia? What do you think the Russians of spies, one. So we just the stupid thing were you can lie about it successfully. It doesn't. this war. Somehow I haven't, we drifted into that stupid situation, but so here's something that nobody gets cell, which is if NATO prove

an error cover for Ukraine. You couldn't sell that as anything else and my right, it can't be sold as something else. It would. One hundred percent be reported by all all observers that NATO and provide Erika or if it happened, so that's one they can sell so that there is this That, when publicly less our position is sorted draws attention away from the fact that somebody, providing all this material, sport and intelligence and weapons logistics, transport sales? I dont think those I haven't heard anybody say this, but I don't think you can

Indians or operating all those drones, I'm sorry, I just don't believe it. I believe that, however many ukrainian drone pilots, there ever have been that the number of drones has now increased beyond the number of trained ukrainian drone pilots. What are they do? Wait until their train, I don't think so. I think that on paper they just say: ok, we're your resigning from NATO. And now you're ukrainian for a week. The same guy who is sitting in the chair workin for NATO is just to ukrainian Volunteer for a week, and they should do the same job now have no no evidence of that. No evidence It was, however, but it falls into the category of things which you could succeed

really lie about so as fair We think NATO is secretly running those drones. You talk about. show me the evidence sure there are drones. But I did it all: Ukraine's Ukrainians. Its Ukrainians all the way down, evidence. Otherwise, so if you can sell the lie? I think you do it. So there's really two wars going on. One is all the stuff we're doing and mutually lying about, and then there's the stuff on the surface that you can't lie about. So you don't lie as much. Although Putin did a pretty good job of I'm not going to invade. You know what you know what I wonder about in terms of how to treat Russia after this is done.

is almost as if the real punishment should be the line. If you ever had the standard for anything is like okay, I don't mind that you broke something in my house. I really hate that you lied about it. You know what I mean, like countries, go to war and is of course, the biggest human tragedy, but if you're gonna hold somebody responsible for something forever, you should hold Putin responsible for, say you. going to attack, and you should use that justification and that only to ban Russia from all business and commerce. because business and commerce requires that you do what the fuck you say, you're gonna do. and the first time you don't do it. You get a bad Yelp reveal United and I think they're ended. In addition to the way we talk about it

They were sanctioning Russia for their military aggression, which is literally what we're doing a more productive persuasive. Do it is to say that Russia is no longer suitable for business? you just say? Look at these separate issues, issues as war. We have to deal with that. We ve gotta, get people safe, etc, but separately You have you: have people in place, who will say the exact opposite of what we are going to do and you can do business with anybody and under those conditions, So Russia were not at war with you, but if you can find a way to become credible in the future, which my require regime change but we'll wait. Nora You know you don't have to go out, Lindsey Grandma about it. If you liked away

Thirty years and just wait till food gone and try again and get a trustworthy, your government were waiting for. You will be happy to work with you. We would like to work with you, Russia, so remember how Trump treated North Korea we want to do business with you. We would love to help, you rebuild will invest, If we can get people to invest in your country, just stop pointing rockets at us. There's a way more productive way too. To negotiate just say: look you ve got it. You ve got a business problem. Your business problems that you can't be trusted for anything will help the effects it We can help you fix that will give you a series of steps. There would rebuild your credibility. Dont think you gonna do him, but you could at least will give you a path around.

So I always look for ways to d to take the emotions of these things. If you'd, if you think you'll ever need to negotiate If I can just say look, you got a bad yelp review and that separate from the fact that we get a war going on so here is my Ukraine prediction Nature, rejecting air cover. a very clear signal that NATO is not goin to play to win. Am I right if NATO ever meant to play to win? They would be considering NATO air cover. So Nato has said we do not plan to win whose that the ukrainian resistance can just flat out. When I don't think

right. There definitely lets people who think they can hang on indefinitely in Afghanistan potential way. I don't think so, actually, Afghanistan. We said the others is spreading. Territory in those hard to know where anybody wasn, who was with all that I feel like. in a modern society Russia has control over all the communications. I think they can control the country. Let us hear a lot of people saying no there's no way they can ever control them, because the resistance will just be well armed and fight the last person until the only way to communicate its russian technology, at which point, I think, Russia connection you know who is doing what everywhere and crush the resistance overtime, but it will take time. So I think that.

at this point, the money. If you follow the money, and you follow will say the psychology of it we ve put put in a position where he can't lose in Ukraine In other words, we ve guarantee that there will be nothing to stop and militarily and we decide we decided he's a war criminal. That's a trap, the trappers He has no other no other option but to conquer Ukraine and somehow trying to make it work. That's it. Because he can't be a war criminal, follow along. He gabby a criminal And lose in Ukraine can do both. That I mean that would guarantee is, and you weren't, we feel like a guarantee it which would be banned,

He could probably survive being called a war criminal by everybody except China and is good friends and everybody in Russia who wants to say that loud anyway, because, of that. But I don't know if you can survive starting a war in Ukraine losing a war in your brain also being a war criminal his entire economy destroyed in the process. I mean, I think he could survive that basically as one path, which is to destroy as much of Ukraine as a takes whatever it takes as long as it takes, and it looks like that's exactly what he plans to do Now. Here's your second economic production question sure run is terrible for russian economically no debate there In the long run, could this work out for a potent, maybe not Putin,

but the same, maybe the leader after that, could it be an actual rational investment as evil ass? It is tragic because years of things things, I'm learning about Ukraine that I didn't know until today, in some kids Apparently they have vast natural resources, including rare minerals, and their vast natural resources have not been exploited as much as they can. So if Russia took over Ukraine with its superior energy production facilities, it was secures pipelines. It works have way more resources. it would have, he demonstrated its resolve, which probably helps it in other future things, because people will be like. Ok, we do want to mess with Russia, then they pulled out all the stops and always do.

Yeah that'll get rid of the launch base in Ukraine. They would feel safer. If you add a ton of people to Russia which also have a population problem, It would be one way for Russia to grow its population, which is actually really healthy in the more people you have lost their jobs. The more power your countries does bigger tax base, so Scott pivoting to a russian win. Let me get to that's. That's the right course. So let's say win in the context of economics in the context of.

economics, because that would allow two possibilities. One is there's a forever resistance, but it doesn't stop Ukraine from you, know, being a country that or being on a region of Russia that produces good economies. So here's list- give me your prediction is, is taking you pain at any human cost. Cuz, that's part of the economics, is what there's what the public thinks about it forever. You know cuz, you don't want to destroy a part of your own country and then have to live with that. That's gonna be pretty dangerous, but in the long run what Russia come out ahead economically if they got a full control of Ukraine.

Your answers are, I'm seeing yeses knows yeses yeses, I'm seeing yeses now. Do you think that the United States in the West could make that not the case in some way? Could we make it so expensive that it would never be economical, meaning that Ukraine just would always have armed resistance? And every time you try to build anything, Ukraine, somebody in West funded somebody to blow up my guess. is that all of the bad feelings about Russia can last no more than to put a number. Whither without putting in power

now. If you leave power sooner than I think Russia's reputation could improve, depending on who sir, but let's say, let's say points these love lives a long life. I feel like it. fifteen year at the most could be could be. Ten years could be five before people who need to buy their stuff just say you now we just need to buy your stuff. We just needed And the Ukraine thing is over, there wasn't anything we can do then there's nothing. We can do now. We're just gonna buy your energy because the cheapest most available, we know have options. So I think, is very likely.

That, in ten years, Russia will look like it made a good investment. What do you think in ten years will look like? It was a good investment from Russia's perspective. Seeing yes, his nose but lobby us more and more yeses, I'm see mostly well. Ok MAX on Youtube! Yes, is now Now, let's take let's take uncertainty is one of our variables. Would you make this? investment? Let's say you didn't care about human tragedy. Does your monster, would you may as an economic investment? Will you make this investment given the uncertainty, here's what I I feel like in the long run

however, long that long run is having control of Ukraine has to be economically positive- russian, maybe not in ten years, maybe not in twenty, maybe that in fifty, but in a hundred years yeah I mean if they can all the four hundred years there s a good investment Unfortunately, so if we assume that burden doesn't seem to care, the human loss. We see examples make their case. He's just make a good investment, and he has also trapped into complete these investment at this point. So while I did that Russia would have way more trouble than they thought, and I think that's been the case, because the the quality of the weapons Ukrainians would have access Now I don't know if there were any secret weapons, but I'll bet there were. What do you think?

Secret in the sense that the Russians didn't see a common, what do you think, I think maybe or maybe elements of existing weapons unknown weapons systems were? you're better than we thought we had more features, and we thought or some like that. So I think I think Russia got some surprises by the weapons themselves. Just guessing. But I would say at this point: Ukraine doesn't really have a chance of staying, independent and. yeah? I don't even want to say about that. I mean it's so awful I guess, was literally beyond words, because I don't Who is the ability to talk about things very often but they came out of my mouth. I didn't want to say about it. It's just so awful and

but all of the outcomes. Look awful at this point were choosing among awful outcomes, So I don't even know if I should wish for a speedy or a slow victory by Russia is a kind of looks inevitable at this point. and the inevitability is based entirely on the fact that Putin wants once more. He wants was more than NATO wants to stop it, and only NATO can stop it is ever could. Could you break it down to just that Putin once more, the NATO and this it may NATO's, we put up a proper fight? So if one size fighting like is the most important thing ever, which Putin is at this point, we force them to do that. You were wearing

At this point I mean is fight his own actions, plus our actions, but the combination of his actions, plus our actions, forced him to win he's forced to win. I don't know if he has a choice now. I do think that the russian Army is going to have insane losses. I do, that that that column? Well, let me give you another variable this possible. Do you think that ukrainians needs over ass for some kind of war on drugs or whatever the airport, the aircraft, are that strife and destroy entire columns of enemy stuffs ETA is the eighth and do you think that Ukraine's have Cuesta. Those because you'd only need five of them. To take out the entire russian column. Am I wrong. I think you'd only need five alone.

because, let's say lose three. The other two can just finish the job, my after reload a few times so. So here's my question: if NATO said the rejecting air cover, but at some point I think there was discussion of extra aircraft being provided, but I dont know by whom so here's my question- could somebody, I guess I'll be the United States, were somebody had useful. I suppose some other country can sell the ones that they bought from the United States, but could somebody provide in the next few days, aircraft that would take our entire russian columns. I feel, like NATO saying that they wouldn't provide era. Cover is kind of saying that they're not gonna fight like

Another words are not going to fight when so what would be the point of taking other russian column, the wouldn't be Melick military or economic benefit with her? I don't see one so I think nature's already tapped out frankly and that's the other that predicts the end now and the best bet that the United States has and Europe, I suppose, is to make sure there is a pyrrhic victory. How many you are so well educated there. When I say it will be a pyrrhic victory. You say to yourself: I know exactly what that means. You cartoons, you typically, I like to speak at six grade level possess actually just good communication,

while as soon as you get above six six grade, a third of your audience at least is gonna, miss a word and not noise and a pyrrhic victory. Me and you won the battle, but you were so degraded in the fight that you you're worse off than if you hadn't won the battle. If you hadn't have the battle, I guess So it's possible that Russia will take Ukraine, but the United States in the West will keep the sanctions on so so Premier League hard that they lose in the long run, but I don't think they can lose out in the two thousand two hundred and fifty arranged. If they're thinking that long, probably not. And the most here This is what the people on Twitter, who I pulled. So this is unscientific. Twitter ball. I asked what are the odds of Russia's move into Ukraine being economical.

Now here's why I think this pole I'd be the only useful one ever on twitter, because eight non scientific Paul probably misleads as much as it informs. That's why you have good pulls, so you don't do that. But if you're asking the question, what word the average person think about a situation, a pocket, we actually can a handy gives you you might, I should solve so I asked what are the odds that Russia will find the economical in the long run, to going to Ukraine and or or what are, the odds are being economic and your answers were: if you answer it, Only twenty nine percent thought it was a high chance of being economical, twenty three percent medium, both fifty four of our poorest, fifty four percent.

Thought has a low odds of being economical. Fifty four percent is roughly the number of people, don't understand economics at any level whatsoever. Cuz, I'm pretty sure it's economical, you just have to wait for it in the short run it could be like horrible. I mean the russian economy could really be taking a crap for ten years as possible, but in the long run, unfortunately, I think it's just guaranteed to be profitable. So and then the most important thing I heard is adventure Piero watched the new bad mood, Batman Movie and set its bad. That is the least surprising tweet of the year, because, if you noticed all movies are bad now all movies or bag? There's just no such thing as a good movie anymore document is still good

like some of the the ones based on real life, things like the Elton John Movie, the one about queen those are But as soon as a movie has to be fiction, they're, not an office egos or conduct country Dracula Yahoo has the added the edit right, I don't know what's wrong, but two, movies, are nothing but two or three hours of discomfort and boredom. I can barely remember when movies we're good another. A number of factors making this true one is that other things cater to short attention spans, so we ve been trained actual Tension spends less one, the other things that people of gravity and away from big screen stored little ones, which changes all nature of moving watching and we also watch movies individually. I used to like

watching movie. Even if I didn't like the movie cuz, I did watch it with other people and I'd like the popcorn in the experience, and then you would talk about it afterwards about how bad the movie was. Indeed have some drinks is often, but if everybody is just watching it on their own Walter, you doing something else. I have any kind of a shared experiences. You don't get the popcorn give allows. So a lot about the movie. Business is bad, but one of the worst things. said the sea gee, I so good. I have to tell you Some of you are not old enough to know what this felt like bill. That most of you are. Do you remember how you felt when you saw the first STAR wars movie it in the comments, tell me how that felt like when you saw the first one.

It just blew your head off tune it. Now, if you were to watch that first, one by today's standards, it would be lame and you can see strings on the ships and I mean just looks pretty lame. By today's standards. But now, let's say you watch the most excellently done. see gee, I say five or look like one of the Marvel movies, Are you still blown away by the special effects? Nope The special effects are so good that they eliminated. The oh well factor. Because any any well funded movie going to have the same perfect looking effects so. One of the biggest reasons to be amazed by the movies was

see something on the screen that you say that had to be hard to do like. While why can't everybody do that? But if you take even gone with the wind gone with the wind for its time was systematically beautiful, big screen and the other whatever booby technology there are using to make. The color was all great was a black and white original And then got colorized I forget, but so a lot of what made movies good is gone. Our attention span are shorter and the movies, I think our failure. I don't think I'm wrong about that. I think that the moves are too long. Maybe there's a reason for that. Maybe you can sell more advertisements or maybe it fits into.

Streaming better or something, but the way to long compared to older movies are poorly written, are predictable, there's always a chasing there's. Always somebody tied to a chair and tortured, assists the same movie over an area. Is it's, I think, is a dead art. What do you think Did they movies are dead? I literally think they just don't have a future in their current form. I mean if they changed quite a bit, then yes,. You know maybe maybe virtual reality is the next, because You should get to the point where you can be in the movie I have described this before, but imagine taking in history. Were you actually on the battlefield, like the soldiers who just running past you in Or you actually want you want to replace January sex so in american history, what

You can actually be in the capital rotunda. When the guy with the the horns walks through, because we have enough video that you can actually create an entire virtual ray. De the you would feel you're there. Now, of course, you have too much subjectivity about who was being violent where, but you can recreate the entire event and in UK Learn about it in school by walking around the rotunda and fast forward again and seen people go by seeing the battles with the police, maybe at the same time seeing news reports or the president's speech about this. Imagine a visa environment, in which you can simultaneously fast forward and reverse the actual events, why you're gonna like there actually walking we're walking round you you're following the crowd, and so the capital.

And at the same time you can call up a tv screen. Little float in front of you. This shows the present president Ciampi speech in real time like matched match to the actual goings on in for the capital. So you can see when the fence, when down you, can see when the security seems to seem to lapse. You see when people got more violent. If that and out of it and then time into the outside events. Only thus will learning will be in just a few years. I told you that a few years ago I already I did a tour inside the hindenburg here that the airship that court on

earn. Was a disaster there's a virtual reality programme where you can go inside the crew quarters and walk round at a smoking room s cigarette smoking room last rays, even Walker, you can walk into the control room to see how they flew it. Looked down at the controls you can, you can go into the infrastructure within the balloon and see like the framing and everything. That's what that's? What education, Looks like in a few years imagine learning to be a imagined learning to be a car mechanic and ten years you can walk into the virtual reality You'll see the car engine in front of you floating, and then why you're watching it will dissemble into each of its component, parts will be described and then each one will be young boy. Back. You can see how it acts you'll, see each

Our rotated and why it does what it does you would learn, everything about an engine about seven minutes and you can be. You could be like a train mechanic. Governments and the because, if you saw a problem, you can just put their problem into your computer, and be a virtual reality and say that problem is this component usually, but sometimes this component and stick your stick, your your monitor into this whole. Just easy. I mean you can learn and entire skill in the few minutes. Yet with the with the ongoing boost, I so much for that.

My prediction, unfortunately, is not. The Abbe is one, but I think anyway, Amity Emily agreed with my general protection that, at this point, potent has to take all of Ukraine's leaders. There's no there's no backing out. At this point, I see us as a nose was I got from today. I've gotta go to some other stuff, and I will talk to you tomorrow.