« Coffee With Scott Adams

Episode 172 Scott Adams: How to Know the Truth About Q

2018-08-09 | 🔗

Topics: 

  • A framework for deciding what you think about Q
  • Certainty and confirmation bias…look the same
  • The cult defense strategy
  • Whiteboard discussion – The Q Argument (see below)

 

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The post Episode 172 Scott Adams: How to Know the Truth About Q appeared first on Dilbert Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
but i'm bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum well well well the summer of love has not been as much love as i'd hoped still a lot of it out there i'm giving you some now comes with coffee you know what the best kind of love taste like taste like coffee and you can have a little simultaneous step right now if you were smart enough clever enough if you plan far enough in advance if you love your coffee and you've got it with you what time it is it's time for coffee with scott adams take a big breath
excel now i know what you're thinking you saw the title to this paroquet periscope and you said yourself whole man he stepping in it now oh no don't talk about q the world is going to fall apart let me frame this conversation before i get into it number one the people who follow q and believe that it is dispensed to wisdom are in my opinion smarter than the average person so let's just start there and i think that's true 'cause it ends people like to solve puzzles people smart enough to be on the internet people are smart enough to you know what who is talking about smart enough to try to put clues together and
now i'm not saying all the smart people are on one side i'm just saying that in my opinion it would be very true that if you were to measure the iqs of the people following q they will probably be very high compared to the average so that's the first the second thing is you can't prove a negative meaning that there's nothing i could tell you that you would say oh ok that's proof there is proof that there is nothing to queue i could never do that so what i'm going to teach you to do instead is how to look situations like this so i'm going to give you a general framework which you could apply it the q analysis or you could apply to any other situation that might seem so it'll be the same way of thinking there
that was certainly in this world but i will give you a framework for trying to decide what you think about q let us go to the whiteboard yeah you didn't know there was going to be a white board surprise toy board time all right here are the following factors which you should consider i'll go over them roughly in some kind of order and let's start with us i would a religion has a lot in common with people who follow too and i don't mean this it is a religion i mean there's something to learn from the comparison for each religion you'll find lots of smart people
say the evidence for my religion is unambiguous here's my holy book here are the things that predicts here the things that's happening there you go proof anne how could a billion people be wrong right the problem is that there is not one religion the well lots of religions and each of the in those religions is quite convinced convinced to the point that they would die for their religion they're different religions and they blew for different things so even if one of those religions got it right best case scenario ratify five people in the world i've no idea what reality is because there they have the wrong religion i don't even know the big questions about god or something
the best case scenario very smart people and up to a billion of them can be part of an organization that is absolutely convinced the evidence is incontrovertible and still be right if somebody's right it means that all the other people have different religions are wrong so just keep that in mind does that tell you anything about que no i'm not claiming that that by itself tells you anything about q is just a can work to keep in your mind about how wrong smart people be an lots of 'em i mean we're talking up to a billion could be just wrong and also pretty smart unnamed sources whenever you see a source that is a secret source
what are the odds that israel if you watch fake news and i'm sure you do you know that the unnamed source list easy unreliable one now not true every time for example watergate at a unnamed source for a long time we eventually that person was named but for a long time it was an unnamed source and was right but the odds are if you've been paying attention to the world the unnamed source most of the time is now true now does that mean the queue is not true because it's an unnamed source now it doesn't mean that it just means that most of the time when you see a situation like that it's not one of the things that i've been asked is to prove a negative to prove that q
is not valid or not with they say they are or just in some way illegitimate you can't really do that nobody can prove something doesn't exist for example i could prove that a was real if i had it in my yard and i took samples and took pictures and the news who gave you could prove that something does exist 'cause there it is but you can prove that there is an alien and you just haven't seen it nobody can prove that or nobody can prove that they don't exist i mean right so we have a situation where the people who are not so sure about qr asked to prove it doesn't exist well that's not a thing that's not a thing nobody could do that what are things you see with
that are not true is what i'll call the colt defense and the cold defense goes like this for it if you're in a cult the cult leader will say people are going to tell you this is a cult they don't have your best interests in mind don't believe them when they come and tell you you should leave the cult all cults have that in common what are people telling you about jack to it to sell and me and schlichter and some other people i'm saying humans might not be real people are saying q told us q told us that you'd be saying this what is that
the colts defense where do you see that other than cult maybe you see the somewhere maybe but i can't think of any place other than a cold so this doesn't tell you that he was not true but it does tell you that they're using the defense that occult uses an occult is based on something that's not real but that's not proof that's just we're looking for patterns here let's see what we can learn have you heard of the bible code years ago and it was quite a few years ago there was a book called the bible code and the idea was that the words as they're organized in the bible did did more than just tell you what the words were saying but they were organized in a special way that god had intended so that there were codes embedded in the
mobile and there were many codes given as examples and it would be stuff like this this is roughly what it was they'd say if you go to this page in the bible and you look at the first letter of each word on the sometimes there were algorithms like you at first you take the first letter to this word but the second letter of this word and they would come up with ways to look at the words that would actually come up with messages and sure enough they would be like full sentence frag and i don't remember any of them specifically but it might be something like bridge falls down one thousand nine hundred and eighty seven and then somebody would look in the news and say oh my god there was a bridge that collapsed in nineteen eighty seven i'm making up the examples but the point is that people later
and there you could run these algorithms against any big book like war and peace and you get other sentence fragments that look like they came from god so the bible code taught us that you can find amazing coincidences in things that are just order things that really are not inspired by god they're not the not the truth of the world so when people say hey look at all the things like you got right keep in mind that's the same thing that people said about the bible code they said it can't possibly be wrong because look at all the once i got right okay last night i was with my love lee beautiful girlfriend christina and we were watching a comedian on television it was a
stand up act and in the stand up act the committee did a thing where she would use a made up name as if she were talking to a real person she looks at the screen and she goes blah the law scott she's looking right at me in my television and she uses my name and of course christina night laugh we go out it's funny i'm watching the tv and the personal tv is looking at me and she goes scott it was just kind of funny a few moments later the comedian on the game show look at the screen again and said a different first name for a different male who happen to be christina sex who we would just talk to so what are the odds that this comedian we look at tv and say my name when i'm sitting next to christina
and then say her ex's name that we had just talked what are the odds of that and didn't use any other names those were the two names now the odds of it or in some cases you know you'd say that all the odds are very low of that very thing happening but the odds of some who incidents happening somewhere in my experience was close to one hundred percent because you live in a world where coincidences are happening all the time you just can't pick the exact one if you see a lot of things happening that look like amazing coincidence is that evidence that something is true well it wasn't evidence that this stand up comedian was a psychic and was talking to
personally but it sure looks like it i just know that it wasn't let's talk about the invisible elephant rule this is something i invented on my own but i think you'll see the truth of it if you have two people in a little room let's say so little room with no doors and no windows smallish room there's only two people in it one of the people says there's an elephant in here with us look it's right there in the little room there is just us two and this giant elephant and the other person in the room says i don't see an elephant and the first one says don't right here right here touch it look elephant the other person goes there i don't see an elephant which of those two is the crazy one
the person who positively sees the elephant for the person who's looking at exactly the same place at exactly the same time and doesn't see it well pretty much every time it's going to be the person who thinks they see the elephant the person who's a loosening doesn't nazi stuff so example you've never heard of a hallucination of someone who could see all the richer in the room except chairs have you ever heard of that kind of illness where you can everything in the room but for some reason you have chair blindness you just can't see chairs that's not a thing if you have two people one is seeing something and the other is looking at the same stuff and doesn't see it person who sees it as the crazy one this is a really good rule you'll see this a lot okay q
is a bunch of evidence that a lot of people looked at a lot of people see it and say israel i mean how could i not be real but a lot of people look at it and they say i'm looking right at this and that's what that was my experience i'm looking right at it i'm looking at the same thing you're looking at and there's nothing there i'm not saying that why you're looking at is wrong i'm saying nothing there it's an empty room i don't see anything so you have the elephant in the room situation with q some people we're looking at the same evidence and see the elephant so people who are also saying are looking at the encino elephant at all who is usually the one who's wrong in that situation i don't want to say crazy because that's not what we're talking about we're not not talking about actual
this here but the one who doesn't see it if they're especially if there are lots of 'em is usually going to be the one that's right ok and there's a reason for that i'll get to in moment now there's a crowd effect whenever you see other people agreeing with you are you more likely to double down or are you more likely to question your opinion obviously if more people for agreeing with you and you're part of a group you convince yourself because the people close to and and doing what you're doing or coming to similar opinions also the the call you separate people from others that's very important to form a cult if you ever want to form a cult i'm telling you exactly how you want to make sure that they lose contact with the rest of the world and that they just communicate with their people who agree with them and it hardens their conviction so people who have been following queue or
more time with other q people they're doing their own queue research and hardening their opinion so even contra let's say evidence that would disprove their point of view or it would work against it there are a little bit more resistant because they are part of the group right that's just a general statement that when you're part of a group whether it's trump supporters or democrats it doesn't what group you're talking about as soon as you identify with the group you're very resistant to any new information that would disprove your opinion um what's the difference between reality and confirmation bias well they are different one is reality and the other one is you think something is true but isn't because of confirmation can you tell the difference you as an individual
never know if or seeing reality clearly or if you personally are experiencing confirmation bias in which you think you're seeing reality clearly by your not can you tell the difference no that's what it is confirmation bias is the inability to tell the difference between things you think are true in what is true who among us are subject to confirmation bias one hundred percent of us a hundred percent of the world all people were all wired that way we can't change it you can't think past it you can't be smart enough to see past that were all stuck in this world where confirmation bias
effectively is our personal realities because that's what we think is true the people in q who are believers say it must be true because i could certainly tell the difference between stuff that's true this stuff it's yes versus confirmation bias i would never be so fooled that i would think something is true and and wrong that that opinion is a failure to understand the basic wiring of human beings your level of certainty about your reality is not any kind of evidence of anything it has no evidence anything because certainly in confirmation bias to us look exactly the same all right um if you have an opinion and there are no smart people who disagree well that's pretty good
i didn't see you may be on the right track that's not proof that you're right but it would be good to have some smart people on your side let's take a smart people and experts lump them together there are people in this world who is jobs or to sort out truth from bs is their actual professional job they would be such as you fbi police orders investigative reporters and to a lesser extent people like me so what one of my hobbies as you know and also i do a professionally now is talking about asian and people being sold so i'm even expert you could argue my credentials i suppose but
you know i've done a lot of writing and it's my main topic of professional work an i'm an expert as sorting out scams and bs from your reality now does that make me right all the time no it does not it doesn't mean i'm right all the time it doesn't mean i'm even write about anything i say about you but it is true that i'm an expert at it telling b s from reality and there are lots of other people have different level what the different types of a parties but they're also good at sorting out the real from the unreal law enforcement investigative reporters at are there any of those people who believe in q there might be but i'm not aware of any any invest is ready at the new york times who's looked into and such yeah i think this is true is
anybody on any news channel fox news drudge report breitbart is there anybody who is an expert as sorting out bs for reality who is willing to say that q israel maybe because i can't prove a negative so if there is one i just don't know about it that would be surprising and interesting my guess is but there is somebody like that but it's probably like in five year old retired service person who used to be an intel but maybe is losing their mind or something you know if you have that kind of expert you know you put your own filter on that alright let's move on economics i a an economics major i majored in economic
and one of the reasons i like economics is that it's a predictive kind of a field it doesn't predict long term it's not good at that but you can understand the world better if you understand money and if you could imagine that there's somebody like aq who knows things before happen what would they do with that knowledge well the first thing they do is that sell it because whatever it is the q nose is insanely valuable in somebody would buy that and if they or did they wouldn't want you to be giving it away for free at the same time so somebody could make trades based on it they could they could sell the information to opponents political opponents this the value of what cube purports to know
should be in the many millions of dollars so the fact that's being given away for free doesn't if it's not real doesn't prove that but is very unusual in this world for someone to have something that valuable that they give away for free very unusual could happen possible very unusual uh we talked about no experts agreeing but look for things that are mapped to the past very well but not predicted somebody mentioned earlier that q said something like five colon five and that that some kind of a i don't know there's a military back for what that means q used and then later the president tweeted five for the election and so q says
haha i see there's no way that could be a coincidence i said fifty five colon five presidents had five and five there we go that's proof that i'm real buy here the problem real would have looked like this on this day if the president is going to tweet these numbers had queued on that i would say due q knows what he's talking about a lot and somebody's talking about also the plus plus plus tweet there was a time when q put three pluses plus plus plus and then there was a a tweet where the president had plus plus plus now that's the bible code good folks if q says enough things in the president says nothing's and the world doesn't know things you're always to find something that says look that's what i said it's just like the so the point is
if you see specific an real predictions in which when you read the prediction you know exactly what's going to happen that's kredible so when i told you that candidate trump who nobody thought i had a chance was going to get elected i told you why because of his persuasion talents and then you watched it happen that was the case the prediction ahead of the event when i told you a year ago that n korea was probably closer to then more and that things probably could turn turn good there very quickly and i described exactly what that would look like that was a prediction and that it happened and you could say ok prediction occurrence i can i can put some credibility on that yes k who says a lot of things and then later one of them were more of them you see in the reality that doesn't tell you anything because the things that
q says are not predictions per se they're just lots of things they say and then sometimes reality serves up those things that set it feels predictive but it's not it's it's actually matching to the past if you study magicians and fake psychics they knew something the cold read have you heard of a cold read it's it's where somebody pretending to be a psychic says general things that are old good gas in a good gas would be something like did you have you have a relative i see her she's wearing a long white dress down to the ankles her hair is up in a bun i think her name starts with a m is it mary magdalene and then the person they're talking to go
meredith meredith i have a grandmother name meredith and i have an old photo of her and she had brown hair her hair was up in a bun all all these things are guessable and if and if none of them had hit a hit any kind of a note with the person listening the fake psychic i said no it's not a white dress that would have just gone on to something else to try to get a hit q is a lot like a cold read that doesn't mean it's a magic trick but it's suspiciously like one and again you have to look at all the all of the free together don't look at one thing then there's the magician's trick and the fake psychics could use this as well and it goes like this
if you can get a few things right people will think the other things you say are also right this is very important if you can get a few things legitimately right people will think the other things are also right so in order q two absolutely totale cell itself it only needed to know a few things and then you would think the other things were true as well now is it possible that q could have found out a few things that they knew before the public knew them absolutely totally true does that mean that everything that he says is true now there's those are different things soak you might actually have some some this of information that you don't have
that doesn't mean that they are what they say they are or that all the things they say are true is it might have a few things that are true which would totally we sell you on the rest of it being true even if it wasn't now if you were real if you were what is presented as unreal would the government number one not know who they were you was did you think that's even slightly possible that the governor doesn't already know who they are of course they do there's one hundred percent chance just based on the way the world works that but somebody in the government fbi or whoever does this stuff looked into it exactly who they are and but it wasn't important 'cause
the was they would either shut them down or they would or they'd make an announcement to say don't listen to them or they put them in jail or something but the fact that the government is completely ignoring this should tell you that they've also almost certainly looked into it and don't think it's real all right that should tell you a lot now some of you remember i left you a little puzzled and i thought it would be fun to put the answer to q in a puzzle because the people who follow queue then they like breeze xing solving puzzles and some people accuse me of having a fake puzzle in which there was no actual answer an i said that i might not even tell you the answer to the puzzle and so you
you may never know but i decided to tell you the answer to the puzzle and i'll remind you what it was i gave you three sets of initials j b k s essay and i said find the pattern and if you find the pattern you would know something about the nature of q and some people quite cleverly said hey these are a nationals of three people who have recently come out and said that q is not what it presents itself to big you saw but jack so back groups like schlichter i don't know if i'm pronouncing anybody's names right except my own and scott adams but just the fact that three people came out and had a similar opinion
is that enough to give you any confidence and anything not by itself but what is there about the three of us g jack is on here it is telling me i got to write a soda what is there about the three of us that's different from the the common person now i'm not talking about oh we're all white males blah blah nothing nothing our physicality nothing about our dna nothing about our educations etc there's something that the three of us have in common the ordinary people don't have do you know what it is yet i'm going to give you a moment to see if anybody got it because if you did it would be more fun if one of you got it before i say it just looking at your fact gathers
blow famous we lucked we write fiction the qs note note nothing experts no information mark alright we have a winner mark you got it the three of us have sources that you don't have and what is the other thing about those sources that we all have in common we can't tell you what they are so the three people who say the queue is real we all have sources that you don't have and it's because the nature of our work so people
always sending me insider information about things usually doesn't have any any used to the outside world often is just my god that's true i can't so the three of us are in a situation where we're continually getting insider information from all kinds of different people most of the time it doesn't make any difference is just fast but my view of the world and yours are pretty different because i've heard things seen things i know things that you'll ever know this is undoubtedly true of anybody who does what any of the three of us do were all receiving insider information all the time so end the nature of that information is i can i tell you that i know it in many cases i even tell you what i know but but if i did i certainly couldn't tell you who told me
lots of times telling you what i know would also tell you who told me so consider that none of three of us thank you israel and what did we have in common none of the three of us presented information now it might be that none of the three of us have any inside information but you wouldn't know but what are the chances that none of us no who q is if you said one of us has insider information and doesn't think he was real i'd say well that person could be wrong but now there are three of us all three of us i have really good sources
i'm just saying you know you you will never know what we know or who is talk to us or what we can't tell you but you should take something from that all right let's wrap wrap this up point all of so my point has been that summarize the people who follow q are they've above average intelligence they're also have the right intentions they have good intentions they're smart they're good treats they mean well i have very high opinion of them they said they also and human beings are subject to all the same biases and forces no matter how mark there are no matter how well intentioned if you look at all of these things together you'll see the framework i put on it on top of the fact that
you have to wonder why people have really good sources about things are all on the same page so think about this framework it does not mean that i have proved a negative because i can't in this case a means i can't prove the queue doesn't have secret information that's predicting the future i can't prove aliens don't exist i can't prove bigfoot isn't real i can't prove the latent loch ness monster isn't real i can't really prove santa claus isn't real now it might be a little easier 'cause of the physics but the point is nobody can be certain of anything but if you believe in q once you have this context i would say you're believing in something that has a very low chance of being real but it might be you never know so if you
if you want to retain your belief in q if it's entertaining if it helped you go down a path of research that you found productive if it cause you to learn more about your government or have a new appreciation for something if it helped you bond with other people who are like minded i see no harm in any of that the point that i did make is that when you put on your queue hats and shirts and attend a trump rally you're giving the people you would consider the enemy the press which doesn't like trump supporters you're giving an easy target that's not what you intend if the reason that you follow queue is because your pro trump anti deep state then you should live that they're living it would mean doing what's good for your brands and making
that's separate from whether you spend your time young consuming q stuff been researching it and talking with other people i see now i see no harm from that i've never heard of any q supporter showing up with a gun to kill somebody i've never heard of anything dangerous that came out of it and maybe you'll learn something along the way so i already gave you the answer to the puzzle so you may be joining us late so with all due respect to the q followers again i think you're well intentioned above average and intellij but you are human beings right
are exempt from all the forces that affect all of us just know that that's going to be my topic for today i've gotta join bill mitchell later on his show so make sure you join us on that i'm not sure exactly when it's airing but i'll be talking with bill pulta and bill mitchell and will give you some updates in some of the ideas that are already coming out for the blight authority and helping the urban areas i hope you all join us for that and i'll talk to you later
Transcript generated on 2019-11-13.