« Coffee With Scott Adams

Episode 217 Scott Adams: Our Last Human President, the PLO Momentum, Florence

2018-09-12 | 🔗

Topics: 

  • Whose economy is it, Obama’s or Trump’s?
  • Social media determines our opinions
  • The algorithms of social media are determine our opinions
  • Iran negotiating position is weakening, US/Israel’s strengthening
  • Australian cartoon of Serena Williams

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The post Episode 217 Scott Adams: Our Last Human President, the PLO Momentum, Florence appeared first on Dilbert Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom pom everybody come on in i hope you have your coffee or your beverage or your warm beverage very cold beverage and it should be a nice mug a cup a glass of vessel any one of those things is going to work this morning or very permissive when it comes to the simultaneous sip so much stuff happening somebody says well sort of your on one hub good more about that later and now it's time for the simultaneous set
if you mr i'll try to have another one you know i well so let's talk about a few things i saw here that the pope years bringing some church leaders together to talk about the abuse problems sexual abuse of minors the weird thing about this gathering of church officials is that nobody will be wearing pants that's just a fact there are going be wearing those robed things it's gonna be a meeting about sexual abuse in which no one is wearing bands what are the odds i've seen some questions about nor mcdonald and must be missing a story because i
seen any nor mcdonald stories but apparently had to apologize for something he said is the way the enormity of this as is deeply sorry for saying lou seek a rosy borrower treaty too harsh oh what sir well i think the problem was he lumped somebody who is accused of sexual miss connell with roseanne who is accused of racism and you're essentially hit every note that way
and then he backpedal well i'm a big fan of nor mcdonald and ethical issues could be great you should watch issue you back forty eight hour rule is in effect and therefore we must take him at his clarification that's what i say i said let people clarify if you now familiar with my forty eight hour rule it goes like this if a public figure or anybody really says something in public that you think is awful or offensive or terrible and you ask them did they mean that they are forty eight hours to clarify but the rule is this you have to accept the clarification because it's the only way society were if you suddenly you can read people's mind and that your misperception of what they said before is more
important than their clarification of what they are thinking and they said that's just no way to organize the world uses the imagine it would just be mad at each other all the time for the thing we're sure they're thinking but they're not saying they're saying that's no way to run the world you have two yet we will have to but is a much better world if you let people apologize clarify do whatever they need to forty eight hours their opinion should be their opinion another words our opinion of was someone else's thinking should not be how we judge them we sit we should give them time to clarify forty eight hours is plenty and one save clarified they have clarified that should be the end of the story no more guessing what people think if they ve told you clearly what they think
and if they change their mind if they apologize except the apology except that they change their mind if you wanted them to change their mind to what they danger to about giving them a round of applause for agreeing with you or at least agreeing with you in public because that's all you asked let's talk about let's talk about the hurricane say look at why don't i had going on here i take a picture of my screen so that after easter no forget what i wanted to talk about
so the hurricane is wiping politics off the front page and i don't think that you can i dont think you you can overstayed how important that is because were fed this continuous diet of anti trump stuff and what happens if it if it pulls back for a week what would happen just theoretically what would happen if we had something like a week of the president just being helpful leaden fema doing is thing and people caring about the hurricane victims etc would it would change the national feeling about things right before
the terms and it might hear the washington post said that trump is complicit in hurricane florence because he hasn't done enough for climate change now i'm trying to understand why that is that wherein obama's economy but we're not in obama's climate you really have to pick one or the other don't ya don't you if somebody said that both of them are a our obama's responsibility if they said ok trump hasn't done enough with the economy is just an extent from the obama years if you're saying that i feel like you have to say that the climate and her
in florence is also an extension of the obama years i dont know how you could say one or the other my view is very different from the average view i say that both the both obama in trump yet full credit for the uk to me the way it is right now my version is that obama did a great job of getting us from the from the the abyss he came to power when the economy was just garbage and when he left it was you just unambiguously strong it was the strong as it is now but was unambiguously stronger than when he took office tradition is you give the president's some credit for that and then this presidency took it i think to another level you saw recently that the
small business somebody's just yelling you're on the small business confidence index is the highest has ever been no i don't know that obama could have gotten us there but your two and a half years listen to the other a two years into the presidency i think you have to say that president tramp is a positive force on the economy and the other argument that you here that the other argument you here that i don't agree with is that obama added more jobs is august twenty fifteen and twenty sixteen the added more jobs than trump trumpeted in the more recent stats now that might be true but it's a little bit of apples the oranges because if your economy is in the is in a hole
all of the gains from the hole up should be big percentage gains and all of the gains once you're near the top and when your near full employment once you reach full employment and which is sort of where we are gains of extra jobs after that extra benefit after you're toward the top its tighter is harder though those are not the low hanging fruit at a more or less the hard stuff when you get to the top seas should see a flattening a little bit when you're toward the top and that's what we say now would it be better if there were more about i don't even know i mean i think we're at the risk of overheating the economy as much as we are at the risk of anything so i think the only the most adult opinion on who gets the credit for the economy is both obama did his role
trump is clearly doing his role and probably in my opinion he's doing it in a way that then obama couldn't and i am also a big fan of sea going back and forth between the liberal and conservative worldviews you know whether as every eight years or whatever it is because i think i think every once in a while you just need to break what every you're doing it just now in business there were collar canada rising so even if things were going well under one administration you still wanna try a different look for a little while new look is gonna bring new resources new tests try new things
everyone's while you just need to do a differently aside in favour of generally bobbing back and forth a little bit now at this point if we if we bought over to socialism would probably have higher taxes and stuff so so maybe it wouldn't be a good good idea this next i will say the same thing with the climate i don't think you can blame president trump for these small changes he's made in dropping regulations for the fact that the entire planet as is alleged problem i tweeted yesterday provocatively their president we'll be our last human leader our last human leader in the united states and what i mean by that is that for
this point on so media will determine our opinions because science has demonstrated the social media can determine our opinions we can move opinions i think twenty to forty percent just by the way they present information so it's been demonstrated beyond question that the way social media presents information what they prioritize what they hide what they put next to each other in what context they give to you time of day they give to you whether your hungry when you see it yet we now know all that stuff so social media has the power to determine our opinion the only reason it's not having happening now is because president trump is the new one in a thousand year personality so he's a personality that has as weird characteristic he he creates
social media content but he doesn't consume it think about it you and i and pretty much everybody else on the internet we consume a lot of social media content were were reading a lot more than were tweeting president trump tweets and walks away he doesn't see your response so he's not being influenced in the same way everybody else's being influenced now that wouldn't matter is the public were being influenced because the public can make the leader do whatever they want in normal but these are not normal times we a leader who is the most persuasive personality we ve ever seen in this job and his ability to persuade b the power of social media is probably unprecedented might be unparalleled in other words
we are already in a situation where the algorithms of social media are beyond the can laxity were there really any individuals or management in the company that even knows what the algorithms are exactly doing me they know the big picture i know that if they were to tweak this this variable they might get to you more movement in one direction or the other but when you have hundreds of variables which i believe is the case and their shifting and their humans making judgments you end up the situation where the algorithms of the social media companies are not understood by any human there is no human who the stones how they work in other words the algorithms i've already in control
even though we created it that would be the same as if we created some super i ve some some giant robot that then took over in maidens decisions after that so we ve created the algorithm but we don't control it anymore because we don't understand it nor are we capable of understanding it it's just complicated so as some level of complexity humans just are in control so once you have this situation you have one human president left who's who is unique situation pluses persuasive power is still little stronger than the algorithms that's why he's president the algorithm tried to keep president trump out of office it wasn't strong enough if presently if candidate let's say chris christy
any but any of the other republicans had been running against clinton who would be president i think it would be president clinton and i believe that would have been the algorithms choice essentially so i don't see a world in which the human will ever be stronger than the algorithm after this presidency the item slow moving disaster law this gives us to the interesting part didn't you automatically assume when i said this i'll bet you automatically assumed that i assume having the a i running things is a bad situation for humans we don't know that we don't that because the other social media version probably yo it's a little
is a little more obvious that it could lay left and if you think that's bad for you then that's a little more clear but once the eyes sort of everywhere and changing all of our feelings all the time i don't no will have none ensure will know if it's good or bad for us we can have situation where the ai is very bad for humans at the same time that they i has convinced humans that is very good for humans so we may never be in a situation where things are bad for humans and we know it just might never happen we just might be happy right until the last human that's how influential i will be some
they were set somebody said ay i will never come from my guns you i can't take my guns away now you're wrong ay i can definitely take your guns away i'm not saying you would want to i'm not saying you would try but if you just imagine some amount of advancement in i along with the normal advancement were seeing in how persuasion works were today our understanding of how persuasion and the human mind makes decisions is just way ahead of where it was fifty years ago when we were able to test things and he had two studies in dubai scans and imaging and really tell what's influencing people in a way we didn't know before we're sorted guessing do this marketing of this advertising i hope it works just do it
where the other people do it but now now we really can test things and change these and be persuasive just imagine that that capability just keeps getting a little bit you can have an eye the super powerful and and this is the part nobody sees coming and super persuasive the ay i doesn't need to force us to do everything the air i will convince us to do things and we'll do them or at least the majority will now be enough be enough to remove society
so the the big risk survey i is not that it gets a bunch of weapons and start shooting people not that it turns off the electricity in you know somehow kills the human so we can have more electricity here i think that the big risk is that the a i will be persuasive and that's the current situation so when i tweeted that president trump will be the last human president a number of sceptics waited and said you'll never convince me that that will happen to which i say i don't have to convince you that it will happen already happened our current situation is that the social media companies don't understand their own amber the algorithm already run social media social me
already makes our opinions for us and we tell the government what to do so very much the president is we thing between the algorithm and at you essentially in so fair fight we are all already cyborgs yes as elon musk says so well that if you have a phone you're already a cyborg you just don't have fast communication between phone in your brain apparently you learn musk has a company that's going to solve that so as some kind of neural net product there will read your brain thoughts and be able to actually interface with the computer in real time
now i want a little bit about my start up when hub you are you all know what it is by now it's it's an app it's available now in apple and google stores and lets you make a video call to any expert who sesar on prices and it could be on any topic or it could be just somebody wanna talk to i think later today probably be on the app is called interface by when hub you can download it is free free to download and then depending on what the experts are charging you can i'm a probably going to set my price for a low just so people can check it out and i'll let some of you call me and and ask him questions i'll tell tweet when i'm available and the tweet will tell you what keyword to put in to find me
but so this platform is just for one person talking to one person at the moment some day we might expand that for one talking too many but i wanted to know if i could i like to get ahead of a trend and i'd like to announce david were were banning alex jones from the interface app and an inn for worse there banned from the ep now for anything they did but i understand you can get a lot of publicity if you pay alex jones so alex jones if you listening i ban you from my app you are banned from the interface by one how about if anybody wants to write a big story about that well i can't stop you can stop you so your band but if you want to use a just go ahead
i want you to know i won't even know if you're using it alex so glad music but your band your band alex you are banned you are so band you're you're super band you're extra super band band that's it unless you want to use them i'm not even though using it anyway so go ahead feel better now what also talk about the middle east so you're saying a number things happening in the middle east they see a little disconnected and minor but let's put him altogether you see around you see them being isolated by a lot and you see them being isolated by lot of love to different countries
you don't want to do business with them because the united states cancel the iranian deal so around having a tough time they're moving backwards and we saw the the cap embassy the u s embassy move to jerusalem that one of the big negotiating points for the palestinian people about who gets jerusalem what's the capital etc but the president's sir took that off the table that is no longer a negotiating chip is still eight it's too late the ship already left there we see that the the palestine i don't know the official name of it but the palestinian mission and the united states which is
my understanding would be like a you whatever's less than an embassy sort of an unofficial group that would be there for the purpose of migos getting etc they were kicked out so other than the one group whose job it was to negotiate for peace and however have an entity in the united states just got kicked out now turns out that the deal the deal for having them in the united states was that they had to be actively working toward a peace plan and they worked so it was it was a clause in the agreement that allowed it to be easy to catch the now so that and then i'm not too up in the details but i think there was a bunch of funding for the palestinians that got cut i think i'm right about that right bunch of funding got cut
and when you put it all together this is the way to look at it in others there is also there's an interest in a peace deal i think jared is working on something we hear and and it's pretty hard to do a peace deal when other there's so much tension right is the atmosphere doesnt doesn't seem ideal for a peace deal or is it or is it let me ask you this are you more likely to do to make a peace deal unless i was a year of two sides let's say that in the history of any entity there
there are going up here they're getting stronger or they're going down the getting weaker or this would be a weird situation but their exactly the same over time they they don't give stronger than don't get weaker it's happening with the united states united states is getting stronger and stronger and stronger what's happening with israel israel schooling stronger and stronger and stronger dollar what's happening with the palestinians situation and their sponsors ran getting weaker and weaker and weaker weaker and weaker and weaker what is your ideal situation for negotiating is your ideal situation where all the entities are pretty strong sometimes if they want to make a deal but that's only if both sides want to make a deal and there's a deal to be made that could be a good situation you're both equally strong
no there's no point fighting might as well just make a deal and both the out you take a deal that is imperfect for either of you but especially in it but that wasn't working you know when the palestinians and the israelis seem to be closer in power we couldn't get ideal but now united states and israel or just getting stronger and stronger palestinian a are getting weaker and weaker and they're losing support even an area what would the piano do now because time is on israel side they're getting stronger everyday every day israel is getting stronger through there so strong that are actually offering to help a ram
with her water crisis and other problems if foreign eren leadership can just play nice which is a big ask so i've told you about the importance in negotiating of time to be a good negotiator you want time to be on your side what the other side to be in a hurry things are getting worse for them every day but you want your team to be no hurry at all because things are getting better every day so we may be approaching the situation there is the optimal time to make a deal because ran in the palace billions are only gonna get worse every single day if make a deal today it will be better then the deal they can make tomorrow and the deal they can make tomorrow the
they make tomorrow is going to be better than the day they can make the deal they can make if they wait another the longer they weighed the worse therein the deal will be and the psychology of that is just crushing just crushing oh i would think that even though never i've i've told you this before their when things look the worst you sometimes you can't tell between its lee allowance is it's a disaster and its almost solved those those two things look almost the same the biggest disaster areas starkist before the dawn right some educated tell the difference and what i see in the middle east situation is dead end
giving one end of the equation is getting better while everything on the other end is getting worse everything i don't think you can come up with one thing that doesn't set their pattern u s and israel going around in the palestinians amass going down and is going to stop it looks like it's accelerating like that less speed is just getting more so if you're on the palestinian side you're the palestinian people and you ll hear your leaders what are you going to say ride this thing all the way to the bottom let's wait another month i don't know i think you say let's get something done if you can but i don't think they can so i think they're gonna get a lot worse before they get better i think you're gonna see something akin to alcoholism and analogies rose dicey butler
you don't make too much in the analogy right the only way alcoholic ever recovers and becomes not an alcoholic is is by hitting bottom you have to your bottom and you have to realise that is either death or life its death or life's less what an alcoholic figures when they hear bottom they either have to just die or they gotta figure it out and so hitting bottom tends to be an important step in an oak recovery and the palestinians we have prevented from hitting bottom because we sought to deal could be made why would you why would you punish
why would you why would you punish somebody to the point of death if you think you can make a deal what now its clear and i think everyone it would agree right now it's clear that whatever that current situation was and i say current situation let's say the situation for the past twenty years whatever that was was not going to get anything done though there was no deals have made in the current situation because the sides were a little too even that's changing palestinians in iran are just about ready to hit bottom now when i say just about ready it could be three years from now but imagine if the current trend of losing on every dimension just continues for three more years
and during those three years let's say israel's gdps gdp is up thirty percent while not thirty percent was i will say the u s and israel are just new and better and everybody else in the world was doing better one if ever the body in the world one if even north korea is doing better because they made a deal and the last people in the world who are not doing better by the palestinians than i think there's probably a deal to be made now here not now offering my opinion if whose right or wrong i'm not offering an opinion of what's moral litter immoral i think you can all make up your own decisions and that we all have our own moral standards but just
terms of understanding that the negotiation element of it look for that work for the direction one side going up once i going down that can't happen forever somebody's gonna hit bottom and we might be close to that so what was the other thing we want to talk about talk about your stock forecast do i ever stop forecast somebody saying if around us something stupid with their military they will pay big time iran is the one thing i like about around noise like a lot of things
i like the iranian people i think the other nation itself has an incredible history so wonderful people friendly people smart people educated people is a great country there their leadership ass but one thing you really can't say about ran is that they're stupid you're even the leadership no matter how much you dislike what they do they seem like small people who were trying to survive and so somebody said you know what if they did something foolish militarily i just don't see it happening cuz they know what would happen and it would not go well what is my take on trump fists pumping going to the nine eleven event irrelevant dont care theirs
there's a questionnaire about the room and he is his some would say massage mystic books ban from where for a man with a ban from amazon you know the first thing i i keep going do and i said this with alex jones is well regardless of whether you like their content regardless of what you think about your where the line should be of censorship or even a should there should be any line
the people definitely nowhere the line is don't you think unless as moving so when people go up to the lion and then cross it they're doing it don't don't lump of the end with ruth please i don't know i'm pronouncing whose name right we ve never met and i don't have anything anything to do with him but tat he always wonder about the people whose business model depends on going right up to the line and then putting one foot over the line is becoming a little bit more clear so as much as we don't like the censorship and shouldn't
yo you they're probably should be some outlets for listening to what really has to say but i don't see that amazon necessarily needs to be that out he wrote most those books years ago i was looking at you answer the serene a cartoon here so an australian newspaper did a political cartoon showing serena williams and a lot of people including me said that the
cartoon looked racially offensive let's say because he drew her while her lips were gigantic and so it was a very flattering picture but it also looked like her her race was exaggerated a little bit now there's a fine line here because the whole point of a caricature does that you take some characteristics of person and the u exaggerate them and that sort of becomes who they are right and you see that with every everybody who is caricature but by choosing the the lips in this case and i'm not sure if i look at serena if i didn't we
i think of serene in my mind you i've seen her a billion times i really think she has been lips does she like does she i mean that doesnt stand out in my mind as any kind of a characteristic so the fact that they picked the thing that doesn't really stand down my mind as a thing to accentuate there's a disconnect between something i was already thinking and what the cartoons obama had big ears and lives in caricature well you know because obama had big ears then the caricatures that probably helped just make it all right and if you look at if you look at
obama character lips and the george bush lips there actually not that different other george bush junior his character what seems like he had sorted weird big lips in his caricatures as well anyway it is not my it does my i have a rule of not criticizing cartoonists because a cartoon is occurring right inside i'll say if somebody else's soon as funny say if it offends me but we can say objectively that the way it was drawn was offensive to a lot of people in my opinion the better play would have been for them too we didn't mean it that way forty hour rule
within forty eight hours of the newspaper in the cartoonist had said it maybe they did at inherent but if they said we certainly didn't mean it that way now that we see how offensive it is will walpole adele had they done that i will said that's all i ask all i ask is that people are offended if the cartoonist hear them down of the newspaper hears the publican says out ok we didn't realize it was gonna be seen this way we'll take it down to me that would have been a non story and we should just move on without trying to mind reading i was secretly the races in their heads because we don't know that right but by doubling down and saying we're gonna keep this here they they have to sort of stand by it
and it is unambiguously offensive even if it doesn't offend me right because offensive doesn't mean listen to every person that looks at it offencive means it up offended somebody and objectively speaking it did offend a lot of people so if you offend a lot of people with something that should have been funny or poignant or whatever it was trying to be and you accept that as your trade off your accepting the blow back so i guess i should have an opinion on it because everybody's getting what they want the critics are making their their opinions known the tunis than the newspaper are apparently stand their ground but they will be judged by all those people who dislike it so if that's what they want that's what they got
i suppose that means everything is offensive yeah so he's going to be a judgment call you are right it just about everything is offensive to someone you don't trust me i know that because i make a comment that offends all kinds of people all the time but never i should say never but rarely what i intended to actually offend somebody i can't think of any case i have intentionally tried to offend me she somebody talk about jake tapir in his cartoons you're so wrong jake tapir is a very talented artists so those of you don't know jake tapir did he was my guest artist to draw dilber for a week
in twenty sixteen i think and his artwork is just tremendous so i did the writing and andy did the art for that week but he's certainly better than i am and his caricatures her or excellent somebody mentioned an internet link tax i haven't heard that idea i don't know how that would work talk about trump's comments on puerto rico hurricane i'm not sure i saw those comments
i did not see tony blair this morning on cnn peter deal on the reuben report i saw approval for that is that our i guess that's already available see if peter teal somebody said the reuben report has peter deal on it that that's must walk you have to watch joe rogan interviewing elon musk why
ever you ve heard about that just assume is better you just have to watch is two hours and you probably won't be all the players of away it's two hours of also on this and i would expect to peter deal to be equally interesting under reuben report nicky iris i don't do that is how do we reduce the cost of living i've actually i'm gonna be set a lot about that the next month or two as part of talking about the blight authority for you to hear more about the blade authority we ve got some some stuff to share with you to try to move the ball forward a little bit and were prepping that now
did i ever watch majority report and national without is nick was wrongfully imprisoned for twenty one years i i think we ve seen it all we set at all how can i day younger anathema league get rich that's easy so they said how can i date younger younger women i assume you bend who are out of your league give famous give famous get rich as easy way are we talked about norma gowns
and already and we'll talk oh yes an excess of shall we say we shall simultaneous up everybody that some cold coffee but excellent nevertheless i'll talk to you later
Transcript generated on 2020-04-02.