Button. I guess me and it's not the morning hello, Jonathan hello, coupe deville- come on in here, yes. I know it's late for some of you, but it's never too late to periscope with me. So come on in here- we've got one thousand people already. So let's jump right into it most You probably saw the president's press conference- As with all presidential press conferences, what did people think of it? Well,. People like the President said it was terrific best job ever who don't, like the president, said my God: what a train wreck it was like a garbage fire so so. We can't really make any determination about whether he did well or poorly, because people just lined up on their team and took their team side. What I watched, look really good

so the parts I saw. I didn't see every minute of the press conference, but I saw the good parts I think, And I thought his answers were measured and reasonable and they give us some clues about. What's coming so here's the first thing: the question of whether the FBI should investigate They should delay things until the FBI investigates is Completely unnecessary, why it's, because of Do cats have decided how they're going to vote? What would be the point of investigating if it doesn't have any chance of changing anybody's mind so if the investigation could develop a solid physical evidence, you know if somehow possible to go back thirty five years and find the semen the

fingerprint, the the camera that was running at the time. Well, then, maybe you'd have something to then you'd have physical evidence but I don't believe there's anyone here or anywhere in the world who believes that physical evidence exists. And the physical evidence doesn't exist what are all the possible outcomes of an FBI investigation? You talk to people some people say it might happen, happened or did happen, some people will say, I definitely didn't what, but that change it's exactly our current situation, the worst case scenario and the best, K scenario or identical: there's no difference So why would you do something that takes time and money that doesn't have any chance of changing the vote? None no chance of changing the vote.

Because the only thing you're going to find is more eyewitness or human account. This is something that happened in thirty five years ago. Let's say that, let's say the FBI investigated and found three more women who suspiciously, who are Hillary Clinton supporters who said yes, I think something happened. Would that change your mind? It would not. It totally would not, because at this point you expect the other side, to come up with stories that are either imagined or convenient, or something now here's what might make a difference suppose they went back and found a solid trump supporter as an adult. Who makes a claim from those days if you have a current trump supporter, say I I know I love the president, but I can't live with this. This bad thing happened

I'm I find that a little bit more persuasive, it's not prove is not. Evidence is nothing like that, but it would be persuasive but it's kind of a coincidence that somehow young Kevin are new, to only molest people who grew up to become Hillary supporters. How do you do that? You know I mean I'm over here, that's not exactly true, but we haven't seen anybody who's the Republican who's, making any kind of claim about him now. Do we imagine that hardcore Republican would just bite the bullet and say well, you know This happened to me, but still rather have the Supreme Court go the way I want? Well, I don't think so. I doubt it. You know if they were different potential Republican had the same experience as the people making the claims, I think they, but

and at this point so remember, to look for the blank part of the can look for the dog that isn't barking and the dogs doesn't barking, is a republican claim that he did something wrong they're all on the same side, so it's a red flag. Now we will never know the facts. It can't be known. It cannot be known. There's no FBI investigation, no kind of investigation that will ever give us. The facts will only have humans talking about it and therefore nobody's going to change their mind as we just decide. Do you believe the humans that we choose to believe? So? The best answer to why do you not want the FBI to investigate? Is that it can't can't it can't change the outcome, There's nothing that anything. Anybody could say that would change the outcome and the Democrats have proved that.

Beyond any doubt so had. Have the Democrats spend a little more mixed. You know Had there been some Democrats who are leading four Kavanaugh, some leaning against, then I would say, now when I have a little more investigating- because you know it's only a few weeks, and maybe the people were leaning in one direction- will get a feel to lean lean in a different direction, but when or making decisions based on party. What's the point, there's no point: there's no point investigation, so I thought president He said some version of what I just said lets you set a differently, but it was the same point. Here's the best part of what trumps, master persuader parts,

so Trump said in his press conference that it's a con job. So that's the first good part because he's been called a con artists beginning. So he has a really good opportunity here to quite legitimately, persuasively call the other the other side of con artist, which will make it less effective when they say it about him. So loves to do this, whatever, whatever they're calling him, you know, face news, fake news, no you're, the fake news, so he's really good and grabbing the gun out of your hand and turning it around he's doing that with this con artist thing he's, hitting it really hard so that's good. The other thing he said was he painted you a mental visual picture. He said, imagine Chuck Schumer and the Democrats when they close the door, they go in a room, they close the door and you're all out there outside the door, and he said there laughing at you there.

Nothing at the con job they pulled off. That is so good. Mockery is very effective. Persuasion if you think you're being mocked, it just it just throws you into an emotional state where you just need to make that go away. 'cause, we're sort of- organically designed to try to avoid mocking you, That's why we have embarrassment, it's his realization holds together. We are ' Very primed to do whatever we can to avoid being marked and he's or painted a visual movie he brought you into the movie. He brought you into the room and said: there's Chuck Schumer there, the other Democrats who made this stuff up, they're all laughing at you. There laugh you. Oh my god, that's good persuasion, since the picture makes a visual gives. You fear goes right to the right to the

Base of your head, where you're afraid of being mocked, he's raised his raised the possibility that you're a sucker- and that is obvious now he there's a thing independent! Ok, independent of whether anything's happened. Thirty five years ago independent of that. Here's what you know you know Schumer's laughing about it behind closed doors right that part of it. You know your all right- we're not reading minds here, but in the real world we live in and any team gets a good play. That they're having a good time about it? so you know that Schumer and the people who are involved in you know the resistance they do actually laugh about it. There's almost a certainty that that's happening all right

now. Let's give me you, I'm going to give you my prediction of what has to happen now and You have to understand the ark of the persuade of the accusations, so on day, one when you heard the first accusation that he had touched Doctor Ford when they were teenagers against her will and had the threateningly act like you was going to or she believed that when you first heard that that was highest level of credibility, moment. One was the highest credibility and reason. Has the highest credibility is different from whether it's true or false because when you hear something like that, it's so hard to do it's hard to go public. It was. It was a little bit specific. You know we up. Nobody remembers what day something happened thirty five years ago, but it was supposed,

about what happened. So I said to myself true or false, that is a credible sounding accusation, but then time goes by so we give it our highest accusation right out of the gate and that's Probably we always should we probably always should give it maximum credibility at moment, one but then information comes out the things we learned about her, the timing of things. Why did this happen? What about this coincidence etc and overtime, the the circumstantial evidence around. It starts to chip away at her credibility, then you needed what you needed, and everybody was saying is: where are they other people. Where is the pattern of this happening? If we don't, have a pattern, it doesn't look readable and that was

really taking a bite out of that. First accusation where's the pattern: where is the pattern and of course the entire jumpers had to produce a pattern so here's what we can say for sure if they were you know people who had real stories. Fake stories would have been produced, the stakes are high enough there, not people in the world somebody's going to take a chance like that, so There was a certainty that there would be more and sure enough right on schedule. There is the woman who says I don't really remember if it was him, but somebody exposed themselves, and I searched my memory until I convinced myself, Essentia Lee, I'm paraphrasing convinced myself that is true. Now, when you compare that accusation. To the original one which was started on gold plated. It was high highest level of credibility, but it decreased a little bit over time. The second,

accusation sort of started where the first one had already reduced in credibility. It was a sort of comparable at that point. 'cause. You probably said to yourself: and she didn't remember it until she searched her memory That sounds like a manufactured memory, so now the second one, had the advantage of creating a quantity. So Still persuasive in it's weird way, 'cause, it was a second thing, even though it was far less credible than the first one was even after the first one had degraded in credibility. And remember I'll, keep saying this every time I say credibility that does it is true or false that We don't know, and we never will, but is the story credible now have an id enters the arena, What does AVA Notty's presence do

the credibility of the claim, well, he the sort of He is such a biased player and he's such a a trigger that, at least for people on the right? His very presence? makes whatever happens that he's involved with less credible. Again doesn't mean it's not true. It's just that he's not a credible player to the people on the right, I think he's credible on the left. Probably so, let's say he's a sort of half credible but then we hear the actual accusations about the ten episodes or so of gang rapes in a party situation, in which nobody else has reported these gang rapes. Nobody really

ordered them at the time and the accuser kept going back to these parties until she was actually the subject of a gang rape. Now that claim started with no credibility. You know it's starting place was close to zero. This is my opinion. This is not anybody elses opinion, but I think most of you had a similar opinion that the third one was even less credible than the first two. So it started here, when down to hear overtime as we found out more, the second one started here, and You know hasn't changed much, but it was never good to begin with and then the Third one is way down here now. Two ways to look at that. One way is that now we have developed something that looks like quantity so the the anti Trump or the Anti Kavanaugh people can say well even if you don't believe one of them, the other two well, and, if you don't believe, two of 'em there's still one left. What about all this?

what it's a pattern of behavior. So they've got that going for him, but here's my take on it. The third accusation makes it impossible for him not to be approved. Here's why If the government allows this level- credibility. To derail their nominee. We don't have a government, we don't have a government, so it's a big deal very destabilizing consider these two outcomes, one outcome, this a gets nominated. There are some marching in the streets. People are unhappy. They complain they registered to vote. They do all the things that people do, but don't you think the left is kind of expecting him to get kind of expecting that he's going to make it through right and, if they're not expecting it today,

They have been expecting it for most of the time so Something happens that you don't like, but you expected it and it's well within the system. Nobody cheat it's all well within the system. Sort of a natural limit on how worked up you're going to get about it right. So the worst case scenario for the the Acavano folks is that just really unhappy for awhile but we'll get past it. What is the downside to the repo looking party, if they let these these Acan given the level of credibility to them as a collective. What is the risk to them over? withdrawing the nomination if you have children around. I would like you to cover their years, There sometimes when I just have to curse- and this is one of those times so I'm giving you fair, fair notice,

if you have anybody young or if you don't want to hear some cursing, to cover your ears or turn down the sound, because I'm going to curse. If the recall look let this level of credibility derail this nomination they're dead. They are dead as a party. Because at the very least, the people who voted who also have an r next to their name, don't have a chance of winning reelection, because it's going to be absolute fucking disaster Right, so, if republicans don't get this through, You could say: well, they nominate somebody else, but you have to stop. Have to stop this from happening again, there's a precedent here right This thing is that you can throw anything up against the wall and you can stop the gears of government.

If the Republicans allow the gears of government to stop over this there's, no forgiving, it there's no forgiving now I think we might forgive the Republicans who voted for non or for confirmation, but the people who vote against that they can never play in politics again they got to be removed. You know legally right, I'm not not talking about anything but a legal election process. If, if the people who are on the fence, who are not planning to retire anyway, if anybody is in that category, any Democrat votes against this. Given at her nod he brought to the party. They can no longer be credible politicians, and you should expect that the full weight of the Republican Party would be on them and

they would get primary it and, and they would be almost unlimited money to defeat them and they would just never be taken seriously again so that those of the the two and- So if you're a Republican, what are you going to do? Well, there might be There might be some senators who are Republicans who vote against it could happen, but it's a death wish political death wish not a physical death wish uh and what happens if they vote against it. Let's say you're republican and you vote against Kevin because of these claims. What happens then and uh. Republican is nominated and you still end up with basically the same kind of person. Maybe female might be mail, but the outcome is going to be the same for the country but what will be the outcome for that senator gone right, gone

no senator, who is a Republican can survive this if they vote against them. So tell me, I'm wrong right anybody think anything. I said there is not accurate, so given Trump's personality you know what he wants. He wants it to go through, given that the Republicans want to win. They can have a win, it's possible an they have complete maximum mutually assured destruction going on for their own party? It would get very ugly for those senators so but it can, nobody can threaten especially the female senators who are having second thoughts, you know 'cause, there's a gender issue, that's on top of all this,

but in terms of what would happen, there's no question about it. Hum. So this is this is one of those are great tests of the system which I kind of I appreciate every now and then that Our whole republic get stress, test, stressed tested, and this is one of those times so the whole the whole system developed by the founders hundreds of years ago. These people who are pooping in holes in the ground- and you know managing the internet or anything that was coming they built this system, the still frickin working, it's pretty impressive, and this is just a good test to me. It seems that the system is so strong. And we are so. I would say you know brain,

store, socialized into buying into the system the constitution, I'm talking about that that allowing this candidate for the Supreme Court to be derailed. For these reasons that are impossible to verify. If if we let that happen, we will have basically prove the founders wrong. They thought they had a system with the write, checks and balances, but it's possible that they didn't. You know, maybe it's incomplete, maybe maybe it's not quite right, but we're going to find out. I feel very confident there's only one way this can go unless we learn something new now we could learn something new. But if the only thing we learn this new comes in the form of somebody talking all I remember this is that then I think Cavanagh has to get confirmed. Let me

Let me ask you this: would you rather have a Supreme Court justice who is tainted by these accusations, use qualified but he's tainted by as accusations or would you rather live in the system that stopped him? For these reasons, it's not even close I'll. Take the tainted Supreme Court justice every time right, tainted Supreme Court justice doesn't sound even close to his back. As the alternative, let me tell you something else this doesn't get confirmed and, let's say Democrats come back to power with some minor. Come back to power was some minor majority Do you think there ever going to not have this happen to them? Because,

This is sort of a rule that, once somebody does something you kinda gotta pay him back. You know it's sort of a mutually assured destruction situation. So. Democrats have totaly illuminated their ability to ever get somebody approved in the future. If they stick with this and if it works, we just won't have anymore Supreme Court justices, I think- or at least none that aren't tainted every Supreme Court justice after this will be tainted. So it's going to be lots. Paint everywhere, somebody saying red wave. I don't think it translates that way. I don't think red wave is going to grow out of whatever happens with the Supreme Court. I just don't know that. That's that's! The eight calls me.

I'm just looking at your comments now, so that's all I had to say I just wanted to get on and talk about. What's up I think the president's doing a good job of keeping things in perspective I laughed when he said that he's also been the subject of fake he's, been the subject of fake claims. So I can't remember if I said this this morning, or I thought of it this afternoon,. But I'm going to say it again anyway, if you were going to ask yourself for any given person, there's a claim of a crime, whether it's a crime or some of the crime, if somebody claims somebody did a crime What are the odds that it's true? Just from the claim you haven't looked any evidence, yet there's a claim will probably would say, is probably true people, don't really blame people of crimes.

Two willy nilly they usually take that pretty seriously. So usually, where there's an accusation, there is a crime, usually not always, but what about in the case There's an accusation against a famous person: do the stats still hold for famous people. How many times do you think I've been falsely accused? I mean I told you about my my stalker and that wasn't the the only issue I've had in my famous life by famous people and you know I'm not nearly as famous as cabin or the president. I think it is routine. Have accusations from stalkers people. Remember that people who thought it was you? Let me give you another another problem when, when I was younger and Dilbert was just getting famous it was not unusual for someone to claim they were Maine to take a bed to take a woman to bed

so there were guys who are who are claiming they were made because most people don't know what I look like you know it was sort of early internet days, so people have little bar and say hey you ever hear that Dilbert Comic and if they got Somebody say: yeah, that's a that's a big deal, they said yeah. Well, I'm I'm Scott Adams, I'm rich and I'm an artist, and can I buy you a drink it turns out. I hated I hated to hear this, but it turns out you can close the deal pretty well by claiming your main. Now Are there people in this country who believe they had sex with me? remember having sex with me who I've never met? Yes, yes, there are how many I don't know, but there or some number of people who a very specific memory of having sex with Maine that I have never met. How

uncommon, is that for a famous person, not it's very common for famous people do have other people. Imagine they had sex with them. It actually is a thing it happens. So if you're saying what are the odds and somebody would make a a fake accusation- well, if it, if you were a US, a normal citizen, wasn't famous the odds, are it probably would be True, but those odds, I believe- and I don't know if there's any way to I don't know if there's any way to measure this. But probably the odds, my reverse for famous people, you know Please have your Cosby is in such or the we're going to. You know they're going to ruin the whole curve, but famous men are all accused of sex crimes. It's just the thing. If you didn't know that- and you were looking at the situation and thinking well, nobody is going to accused somebody unless they probably did it then you're in a completely different.

Universal probability. The probability of somebody in that position being accused is very, very high. All right. It was easier in my case because people didn't know what I look like. By the way, the Jim Davis who's the creator of Garfield, had a big problem. This. So there was somebody who learned how to draw Garfield and was somebody who looked enough like Jim Davis or people didn't check that he was actually early. He was, he was doing a great job of getting women to bed in Florida. I think it was, I think, was Florida and so there's two cartoonists, two cartoonists I know of

They have some population of women who believe they've had sex with those cartoonists and the cartoonist have never met those women. It's a weird world, so blockchain can solve that problem. Somebody said somebody said I had that pulled on me years ago. Now I get it yes I wonder how many other women haven't ordered a man who claimed to be something else, something more famous or more rich. Are there any other women had that situation. Uh.

While friend lost everything on a false accusation, tried to kill himself. That is awful. It's happened at least twice to me Genesis. While I never thought to ask the question before, but it's a good one, isn't all right! I'm just looking at your comments, and I think I've said enough and I'm gonna go do something else, and I will catch up with you in the morning, but and I

As for the cursing, I hope you know it was necessary. This was this was mandatory cursing today, so it does seem like a lot of women are saying. I am Spartacus this week did I say somebody asked me about my estimate of Cosby being guilty and I said forty percent. I don't remember ever saying that, but let's say I didn't the the moment. The first accusations come in.

If you're a normal citizen there- probably credible, but if you're a star again, the the odds are reversed now because be clearly is guilty, because the evidence was overwhelming accusers exes stations grazing Lyle. The time I would need to fact check on that. I haven't seen the sources say that how does it work for the real Scott Adams, confidential information? All right I'll talk to you all later tomorrow, probably