Bump bump bump bom pom pom pom, pom, pom, pom, Joanne you're, always so quick Andrew. You too, your quick on the buttons come on in here, Tyler, Sir. I don't know if you follow on Twitter or the news, but if you're following twitter you I've learned some exciting things. If you're following CNN. You haven't learned anything it turns out that CNN has decided to just Stop covering news yeah well just stop covering news, will discover things that make the president look bad, whether it's news or not. If we need to make something up, will do it.

We're approaching one thousand viewers and oh I just I forgot to turn on my see, if I can re tweet this while we're while we're doing this I've got a setting that kept me from retweeting, or it kept my periscope from showing up. So I'm going to have to retweet it while we're doing this African, all retweet, after all, right. Here's what's going on. If you're not aware, I did not watch the the fight, so I don't have anything to say about that, but So here is one of the most impressive pieces of negotiating and persuasion

you will ever see in your life and I'll bet you I'll bet ya. That if I didn't talk about it right now, you would never even hear about this, so you know my. It has been to not talk about the politics. So much as to talk about the persuasion Which I'm going to do in the moment, but first, please join me. In a let's say, A celebratory, simultaneous sip but the Big NEWS about China and fentanyl will talk about in a minute, but before we do drink with Maine will you? Oh, because of the news, so the news is this that President Trump at the G20 meeting abroad- fentanyl with President she Doesn't she has agreed this? Is the news two

why didn't the the class vacation of fentanyl in China, so that it is the greatest offense to to try to sell it to the United States. So people are confused about this because they say wait a minute. Are you telling me you fentanyl was already legal in China. It was it legal to sell it to other countries, and the answer is China had a defective classification system, which allowed the bad guys to take something like fentanyl. Change a molecule and say hey, it's something new Fentanyl was a legal, but this new, this one molecule off it's on a dress. Doesn't address it. So in China you could use that loophole forever, just keep changing it It had a law which is what the bad guys were doing in the I did states and I'm speaking very generally 'cause. I don't know the details

In the United States, you can classify more broadly, so that these little tricks of changing the molecule or so it won't get you to illegal place. Simply had to do. All they had to do is imitate the same since we use here imitate the same process. I'm sure other countries do it. So it was a fair. Really simple administrative leave, Eagle change that in theory. Nobody, nobody in China would really even disagree with unless they were actively trying to support the bad guys. Now, here's the story that nobody told you- and if I did value- and nobody would tell you this and when you see it there a little lights going to go on and you're going go ping. The G20 is, as you know, the twenty biggest economies, pictures of the biggest economies leaders get together and they talk economics primarily

right. The primary reason that they get together to talk about economics. To talk about other things, just 'cause they're in the same place, but mostly it's economics. It and I had been uh, seeing and talking nonstop for the last month or two of about the need to not do a trade deal with China until fentanyl is addressed in China, in other words, they're not my take was that China is not a partner. We can make any agreement with until they do that. First, that is a negotiating technique. Do you see it? The technique is that you get a deal before you start negotiating the deal. And the deal that we wanted to get was, of course, the trade war was the big thing, but because the trade war was a sort of a

a mortal threat to China There's economy, instability, so the current situation as China as a big problem. If they don't get the trade deal done, and so our president, the best negotiate The the presidency has ever seen and I I would argue one of the most persuasive people in my lifetime goes to this dinner with president. She, in which so far nobody has even mentioned fentanyl friend, snow was not a headline. I don't remember seeing it on anybody's agenda 'cause. This was an economic meeting, so our president it's at the meeting. Cameras go on. President. She is sitting directly across from him think about this It's the most visible meeting on the planet, earth.

No meeting of two people was more important on the entire planet, then that dinner between President XI of China, and President Trump and their mutual advisors all eyes were on it all news was on it. It was Biggest thing going, and if your China, how important is it to command of this G20, looking good, top priority right now. Getting getting deals and stuff is, of course, always a top priority, but terms of managing your brand Managing your image, this GE thing really really important for all the players, and so when president, Trump is making his initial comments. What is he was he talk about? Well, he talks about the death of George Bush. In a very risky,

full way in a tone that maybe his critics did not expect. So he took the story of really one of his rivals. I think you could say at least or rival, family. Not you not George Herbert Walker but the family, and he was very respectful, very presidential. Another words make any kind of news with it. You just treated it respectfully.

And then the president said: we've got a lot to talk about we're going to start out with fentanyl boom. Do you see it? Do you see what President Trump did there? He put president CHI in front of a camera in front of every news outlet and the whole fucking world, and then he said. I'm going to talk to him about fentanyl at the G20. What's the biggest topic, everybody thought he was going to talk about trade, trade war and the President said we're going to talk about fentanyl. First. And specifically have a specific suggestion, which was for them to classify it differently:

which was an entirely practical thing to do now. You might ask yourself why did we even have to ask what what Why was it necessary to ask China to do something so obvious, so simple and so constructive well, the only answer I can come up with is that they didn't want to do it. It was I or something that maybe politically it was hard, maybe maybe it was leverage it might have actually been negotiating leverage? Maybe it was what I say it was. It was just another way to attack the United States. And our president put it right in his face president Trump put friend, no right in President she's face in front of every camera in the world. When he did that the

Yoshi work complete. Now, you're saying to yourself wait a minute! That's before they've negotiated Nope that was not before they negotiated. That was the negotiation ocean, of course, you know people are obviously had conversations ahead of time, etc. But it was clear at that point no decision had been made. The to the president made that the top story, the only clip that is the takeaway from that from that dinner. It made it largely impossible for president she to resist. This is sort of what the president has referred to as setting the table. That's negotiating term loosely speaking. It's a negotiating terms that he said the table so that when the negotiations start, they're already done.

The negotiation was done before he started now. I'm talking about just final conversation, Clearly, there have been behind the scenes, lower level conversations, but to get the deal our president guaranteed it by the way he now ask yourself is that is that something that anybody would have done? Do you think that, if you just plucked, This president, out there and put in another. One Would that president have done that which was exactly the right thing to do on the biggest problem? I think in the country at the moment and to get a good It is something he has a special skill for it, and it's really hard to ignore it at this point that this is a special skill,

he has a good personal working relationship with president chain built on respect and he, created a situation in which there could only be one outcome, and it happened to be the good one. Now. The other part of the news, of course, is that there appears to be something like progress. It's way too early to say that that everything solved but China is clearly bringing some flexibility to the talks. We've I guess, there's some kind of a moratorium on increasing the tariffs pending working out some of the some of the deal before then. So

the headline today should be something like this President Trump makes uh makes big progress in one of the biggest issues ever by negotiating it, President Trump was right all along that renegotiating trade with China could lead us to a better place after we took a little pain that was always Thomas? The promise was never well we'll. Just something to give us stuff and then they will give it to us. I don't believe he ever made us that promise, I'm pretty sure that the promise from the start was. If you'll, let me give you some pain, meaning the country, the economy? If you let me do this, it's going to hurt like going to the dentist

It's going to hurt, won't hurt everybody. Equally, it's going to some of you way more than other people, some of You are just going to get just kicked around. Some of you might even go out of business. It's going to hurt But when we're done, you can have a much better situation for the long term, that my friends is leadership. That's what it looks like leadership is not do you like cookies, here's some cookies, that's not leadership! That's making cookies leader, it looks like this. I'm going to do something. That's really going to hurt some of you. I don't want to do it. But it's better than not doing it, I'm going to make the adult decision and it's going to really cause some sacrifice on some Americans, like war

a lot of things we do, and so he took the leadership position. He said I'm going to introduce some pain on our side, but you haven't seen pain until you see what happens to the other side and I'm pretty sure We have the negotiating leverage. I yesterday one of the top economists who is good at. Predicting things who put it very clearly, he said when customer and the seller are negotiating if the. If the customer is the biggest The customer has the leverage. Show win in the long run, INDIGO negotiation because we can get our stuff in other places is, Vietnam was already scrambling to try to take over some of the production from China so we always had a dominant negotiating position what,

At the same time, we were unambiguously suffering from bad trade deals that made sense in the past, but no longer makes sense. We we were intentionally giving China good trade situation to help them develop at center. Now that the real world power I mean as big a world. Hours. They are, it didn't make sense anymore, So how is the news going to handle the fact that, at least from this G20 meeting, the president had some of the best results, the only president ever had now that doesn't mean the trade deal is all wrapped up. You should expect lots of fresh move between now, and and whenever we get a deal you should expect at least once or twice one or both Parties will walk away from the table and you know in principle, there should be a time or times

between now and the time we get a deal with China in which it looks like it's all going to fall apart. You're, always going to get that it was. It was the same with North Korea. If you don't get that you probably don't get to a good ending. A what a successful negotiation looks like. Somewhere around the middle or maybe two slash three in one. Both sides says there: in a way we can do this. We walk away the end of the world. We cannot negotiate this and there's no way we're going back. If you don't get that and then go back and make a deal you don't really have the deal that you need so yeah. So I'm seeing a lot of people asked me today. If, if I believe that my

my advocacy on the issue of fentanyl made any difference. So the question is: is there anything that I did that made any difference to what looks like very positive first step for something to happen. And the answer is, there's no way to know so um. So let me just say some things about it. So I'll stick with the things that we can now and I won't try to speculate much sure read any mines or or or go further than what we know what I've been saying for three years is that I have an advantage in predicting what will happen because persuade negotiators? along the same lines and if you know how to negotiate look at the negotiation, say: okay, I'm in negotiator, so I'm looking at

this negotiation that's happening with these other people and you can kind of tell how it's going to end a negotiator can do that, but someone who doesn't negotiate with say hi, I can't tell which way it's going to go that's what Peter Schiller said. The economists when he said the big customer there's always going to win the negotiation. Another word to someone who understood negotiating negotiating so he's telling you I know it looks, looks bad to you, but trust me on this. It only goes one direction, so, My point is that if the president does something that I would have done, it doesn't mean it's, because I would have done it. You can't make that connection. It is more reasonable to say that people who know how to negotiate people who understand persuasion are likely to. That in similar ways. So if see, the president do something, that's smart in

I was negotiating or smart in terms of leverage smart in terms of persuasion. It's because he's smart in terms of persuasion, it does we have to be more complicated than that. If you see me saying we should do x, Y and Z, and they, also smart in terms of persuasion, it's just because I know what persuasion list. It doesn't mean that the press, who also knows how to do this better than I do. It doesn't mean that he's looking at me for his guidance, it just means that this is the smart thing to do so. That's the only we can know for sure, but I will on top of that I don't know if anybody was saying before I did. The sentinel should be tied to trade. Now the way it was done it was negotiated before trade was negotiated and it was tide to it in a let's say, a political fashion. That is exactly how I.

Now. That doesn't mean the White House took an idea for me. It means that they also recognized that that was the smartest way to do it. The most leverage that the United states will ever have with China. Was yesterday that's the most leverage will ever have the Most leverage will ever have in general, and China was yesterday because they need this deal, and so Since they need a trade deal, they will Of course be flexible, these sort of related things that weren't the big deal to them like China, really cares about how much fentanyl their shipping out- it's probably not their biggest issue by tying it to their biggest issue. It was something it was. Had to check the box to get to there this issue and that's what the president help them do.

And in so doing you notice that President Trump in their state The White House statement they framed as a great humanitarian gesture, so the president responding in kind. Another words being a productive partner with China in set of saying yeah we negotiated hard and we convince China to do what we want. We win, they lose. It was nothing like that, That would have been done. The president explains. As a great humanitarian act, does that helps the president later yeah does absolutely 'cause. It shows that the president has cheese back. You see that you see how important that is The you it you're seen the president. Do this a number of time with other leaders The president will find away to demonstrate in public that he has somebody's back, which you just did by

classifying. This is a great humanitarian thing instead of instead of saying what took you so because you realize what took you so long would have been a perfectly valid thing to say he chose not to. He took the productive way so that's good stuff, you can watch and see I'll, be surprised if you see anybody in the mainstream press on and in any network say what I just told you beau beau. When I tell you this, you see it right, give give me a little feedback. Is anything, I'm saying crazy. I don't think it is yeah, you, see that how the play this It was kind of genius. It's kind of genius right so getting back to People ask me what you know: what might

My role had been in this. There's no way to know, but I will say this and it's what I like best about this presidency, if feels to me like this presidency, is this is audience participation more than any other presidency maybe more than any future presidency, but but you can see it can't. You can see that the president and his people they've got a finger on or let's say they are checking the pulse of social media? Very. You know watching it very closely. Watching what ideas bubble up there, watching which hashtags get popular they're watching how people talk about things. They're watching how other people are framing things and how they're setting priorities and there choosing among the things which

or have their own energi so that they can kind of move them forward so MIKE, contribution in terms of how I intended it to be- was to make it easier for the president to do his job. That's all I wanted to do. So my my only thing I wanted to do was to make it easier and if I can put pressure on China, if I can frame it in a way that you know suggest. Some frames suggest some things that the bubble up and become you know, part of the idea set that they can pick and choose from then I feel like I've added to the list say the diversity of the portfolio of choices. So those of us in the public who care about this stuff and follow it when you're doing your social media, stuff you're, creating things that they become viral, they might become hashtags. They might might be a new way of thinking of things.

You really have to see this as not just an observer. You are not just watching politics part of it and if you've got the right idea in the right platform, you your little bit of persuasion, becomes part of it. In a way that we've never seen before all so that's interesting. Let me talk about Neil Degrassi, Tyson, famous populous he column, a famous popularizer of science, which is good. So Neil Degrassi Tyson has been accused by? I guess three separate women of me to wish stuff and he's also vocal,

it alarmist etc, whose tweets, on climate or, frankly, dumb for a guy who's, promoting science, some of his Climate tweets are very une sciency. But that's not what I'm here to talk about. He published today, a defense. If you will You pretty long description of him. His version of what these events really were so that you could compare it to the accusations now, I'm I'm always going to be on the camp of you have to take all these accusations seriously and your first impression on any accusation should be: let's take this seriously. Let's, let's treat this as if this is completely sir. ITALY and find out where we can. You know ultimately the Jackson, the law have to rule, but take seriously so With Neil Degrassi Tyson, I

I follow that rule. I take it seriously, but then I also take seriously his defense. You can take one seriously and not the other, and I read I read his dissent, And keep in mind that I'm, the guy who talks about persuasion being separate from truth, the truth of these events- I will never know it's. Noble will only know what, if there's for any legal anything. We might know that, we were never really going to know what happened. It's not noble. All we can look at his defense in the accusations and I'm going to tell you that his defense was solid. You might not want to hear this 'cause, some of you. Who are you know, sort of oppose them for because he's pro climate change alarm or something, but if you had to look at it just objectively, he

This defense was pretty solid. That's the only thing we know. I don't take that as to say that his defense is the true version and the accusers of the false version, I'm just telling you that if you read his defense, it's really well crafted and it has detail. And it's very believable, which is completely for for being true right going to take his side, I'm not going to say it's true, because it's persuasive. It's just really well written. So if you get a chance to read that it's worth it um the somebody said, should we believe all women. Now I didn't say that I said you should take all accusations seriously. That's very

different from saying believe all women, it's very different from saying believe all people defend themselves. We can never really know, but you can take things seriously or not, so he says no. You should not take criminal Accu, Haitian seriously it kinda should all right. But we won't argue about that. Yeah. They had some kind of funny handshake in that story. I don't know what the heck that's all about next, It goes new president took office yesterday, anything about that yet the only thing about the new president is it seems that Mexico in the United States or becoming closer now we just saw that I guess Jared Kushner got

some big National award in Mexico for his part of negotiating, trade deal and you're saying that Mexico seems to be trying to be as productive as possible about the the caravan so it feels like we've got some people we can really work with. It looks to me, like this situation in Mexico, has improved what I don't quite understand. Is why the mexican government is helpless against the cartels. I'd love to know what what is happening there secretly, but I don't know, will ever know yeah the new present wants to work with Trump. As far as I know, the new president of Mexico, doesn't have any bad well when you say

He doesn't have a bad history with Trump. I believe he's trying to be productive, so there's a good chance we'll be able to work with them. I, like I like, where that's having so many sayings bribes and pay off yeah. Maybe so maybe so We'll never know what we do know that that's a big part of it, but we don't know We don't know how much the federal government is influenced by the cartels. We know the local governments are essentially owned by the cartel Kartel's I'm well. We got the border wall check, Alright, so here's here's something I ask you my understanding is that the so called coyotes the and the cartels can charge five thousand dollars, two in migrant family for crossing the border.

This is just brainstorm, be idea and you can take it or leave it suppose. We created a separate path for immigration, and that path was you pay us instead of the cartel same amount yeah, where do they get five thousand dollars is right. I've never understood that part. How do world to these poor immigrants come up with five thousand dollars to give the coyotes will well, I don't know how they do that, but Why can't we charge them money and just go into competition with the cartels? No we would also you are usual venting right. You don't just let anybody in his five thousand dollars, 'cause terrorists could come in and MS thirteen even if they had the money, you still have to do your vetting, but why not create a separate line for people who want to pay

five thousand dollars toward the wall, somebody says it's twenty five hundred to three thousand all right. Let's say it's two thousand: let's say we undercut the cartels. We compete with them. Let's say we say it's two thousand dollars a family. Uh, let's say how many families do we let in the year will say twenty thousand? No, or let's say there might be twenty thousand families. If we had a legal way to do this Alexa what Twenty thousand two thousand twenty thousand two thousand equals forty million, so forty million is not enough. I guess I could have done that math in my head, but it's more fun. If I let the robot do it, so forty billion a year would pay a little bit of wall, but apparently we need a few bills.

So I've been telling you there forever we already know where the wall is going to end up. Don't you or or is this? This is similar to my point So if you understand how negotiation works- and you understand how business Works- just a little bit how the world works. The wall, negotiation is only going to end up one way, it's going to end up a small. Mountain. Twenty five billion and we'll build some wall and we'll see how it goes there's no way it's going to go any other way. There's no way that there will be no all because there. Always at least funding to maintain the border, and some of that will go toward wall. So there's going to be some wall? It won't twenty five billion, because I wouldn't even make sense, but it does make sense for the president to ask for twenty five billion, so you can get the best offer so you don't even have to wonder how that's going to end up. You only have to ask when

or or how it will be reported, or you know how will be framed but the. But in terms of what's going to happen, you could have predicted that three years ago and you can still protect that. There's only one way it's going to go, there's going to be some. Smaller x, billions of dollars, to build a little wall and they're going to see how it goes see if it stops. Anybody see They just brought ladder over it and hop over it, and then you need to rethink your approach all right. I I think the difference with the border wall and damn analogy is first of all, analogies never really work because they're just different things but you can certainly tell if people have to go somewhere else. So if people

adjust their behavior to go where there's no wall that so it's not easy to go over the wall because think about it. It the all is sort of the normal closest this way to get through they're going they're going to go over it. If it's easy, it's not they're going to go somewhere else, so we'll just see how it goes. Uh. Tunnels I think the totals will be primarily used by the drug traffickers. I don't see that the wall will have much to do with drug trafficking. Actually, so I've never been. I've never been on on the team. This as a wall is gonna. Stop sentinel, I mean you know a central package, this big, can kill, like a million people, About the size of a baseball, So somebody on once I can just like throw a little baseball size

package over the wall, and that's like enough fentanyl cuticular million so I don't see the wall necessarily stopping fentanyl, but my help you know in the small it might help. Even Australia has drug smuggling problems exactly. You know what would happen in the future if. Immigration becomes just out of control. It is Australia in a weirdly advantage situation because of surrounded by ocean

even if it became like all right, everybody can just migrate wherever they want the. We can't stop it. There's too many of you, Australia is gonna, do pretty. Well, I wonder if anybody's investing in Australia, because in ten years, they're going to be advantaged by being able to control their borders, just open question, I'm yeah they're they're close the places, but those places need boats and it's easier to stop a boat that it is to stop. Somebody walking yeah Peter Thiel, went to New Zealand NEWS.

So in the same situation. Alright, I'm going to stop here and let's drink again, too good progress on fentanyl and China, and maybe trade too, ah good stuff I'll talk to you later.