« Coffee With Scott Adams

Episode 328 Scott Adams: The End of War, Kevin Hart, Mueller Porn Update and Facebook

2018-12-07 | 🔗

Topics: 

  • Social media has already replaced democracy
    • Top former spy agency guy says Facebook is dangerous
    • Says they should be regulated by the government
    • Odds that will happen are very high
  • Charisma = Power + Empathy
    • The “face” of power needs to appear empathetic
  • China can’t tolerate attention on Huawei spy-embedded products
    • A deal with China HAS to happen, that’s a given
  • War is obsolete
    • The economic incentives of war are gone now
    • War between nuclear countries has always been obsolete
    • No longer economically feasible to conquer another country
  • Altitude sickness above 8,000 feet is a real thing?

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The post Episode 328 Scott Adams: The End of War, Kevin Hart, Mueller Porn Update and Facebook appeared first on Dilbert Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
but i'm bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum joanne always here first quiet i am coming in second hey everybody it's time for coffee with scott adams this is the the travel version oh somebody got engaged last night congratulations cameron bruce bruce lot of people named bruce on here today it's time to raise your glass your copier mug your chill is your stein fill it with your favorite liquid before you lift it i like coffee for the simultaneous sip hum so i'm seeing that burma is in the house and myanmar
man everybody's here so the news is kind of um boring but see if you notice that yeah this is a terrible camera angle but about that same better slightly improved so it's too early to have an opinion on any of these staff changes were talking about kelly might leave and nick ayers might come in and we've got a new un representative representatives and maybe a new attorney general and it's all great fodder for the news chat about that stuff all day long but i'm sure these people are qualified and probably to be a lot of chatter without a lot of substance twitter this morning that a top guy from
british intel recently said in an interview that facebook is essentially dangerous because of its influence and this is like one of the top intel guys from great britain saying the facebook is a threat to democracy and should we should be regulated like a utility that's a pretty big statement and i believe uh huh think about the enormity that now i've argued that social media has already replaced democracy it's sort of a form of democracy but they at a and that facebook and social media in general are part of that and the way that model looks is that our government who we elect
he doesn't have the option of doing something their social media doesn't approve of would you agree now in the short run you can have ideas that social media doesn't like but in the long run you're really going to either lose your next elect and or you're going to have to conform one way or another so social media large he determines how the government is going to go because they they can't get on the wrong side of social media and at the big tech companies are the biggest determinants of what social media thinks and says and does because they can control which messages have the most play so their algorithms are essentially i would say have already replaced what you say what was the republic or what you thought was a democratic process so
way past the point where you have to ask yourself hey can social media distort democracy we're way past that it's already happened the report it has already been replaced with a new system now you can like that new system or you could not like it but i don't think you can legitimately argue that the old system still exists i think that i think that's settled settled deal there so it seems to me that the odds of facebook some day being regulated a pretty high and i think specifically that the form of the regulation will be some independent body maybe some kind of judges they have technical backgrounds there look at the algorithm and say the only thing we're going we're going to look at is any change to the algorithm
and then the judge will say okay this change is not in the best interest of the country because it's it's it's introducing some by so i think something like that's guaranteed eventually now what's interesting is that because social media companies control how we think there they can also control the public to be against any kind of public regulation of their entities so that will be kelly just quit somebody said i don't know if that's true but the reports were that that was imminent somebody saying they're going to depose a crude berg soon as facebook i think that's a strong possibility things are a might not last too much longer in his job and a lot of that
we'll have to do with the public's distrust of facebook's intentions and actions one of things zuckerberg has working against him is that he's not a sympathetic character meaning that his public persona just just let's say his charisma if you will doesn't come across also somebody who's on your side he comes across as a little bit robotic and that i think that's just scary to people yeah if you have somebody i've told you before this the definition of charisma is a power plus empathy so if you don't have empathy but you have power you look like a monster with somebody with a lot of power who doesn't care about me that's the scariest thing but if you have lots of power and you care about people then they say that's great
i've got this powerful person on my side i love this person so facebook is this big powerful entity who is the public face this is probably the least empathetic persona i've seen in the modern age it's very hard to watch zuckerberg in action and feel he feels my heart you know he's connected to my emotional reality like don't really feel that firms zuckerberg now by the way i'm not a zuckerberg basher because clearly yeah he's a genius clearly his i think people have said is the top top ceos maybe of all time so in terms of capability strategy intelligence
fading his staff and all those things he's probably one of the best i've ever seen so you can't you can't take that away from but in this very specific situation where he become so successful there facebook has so much power you have to make sure the face of that power is compatible with the other business model and the business model is that they need people to like them and he is the way he comes across is not as long it was a good day so i think for that reason alone probably will be a change somebody said the uncanny valley i was they're going to say that but it seemed too cruel i was thinking it i was thinking exactly that and i was thinking it for like analytical objective reasons
thinking it just sounds so cruel to actually apply it uh have you noticed that apparently did not have a big push back to the cfo of wow way i think it's pronounced getting picked up in canada and will we turned over to the united states for some kind of crime and again i don't understand how the united states can have criminal jurisdiction a chinese citizen who did things in china like that i just don't know how that all works so i'm a little confused about how we have any authority there but let's say we do did you notice that china did not back hard on that they asked for her to be released but they did not say they were going to derail the trade deals
and that's what i was predicting yeah i was saying these steaks are too high there and even know this person who was picked up is the daughter of the founder of this major company this company is being dreamed of such terrible things into being blamed of theft of intellect will property as well as the being a spy organization for the chinese government so that if you put their equipment in your in your country you've installed spy equipment from i don't know how true that is but that's that's what the believe is out there so so my my prediction was the china it could not tolerate having that being a bigger story than it already is so if they were to reverse the trade deal say i were walking away from trade that would be a jug then take worldwide story and the
last thing they want is for us to talk more about this chinese company that's apparently a bad bad actor so i think the trump administration played this perfectly meaning that they they had a a free punch because given the sensitivity of the trade negotiations china really can't die on that hill there not going to put all their bags all their eggs in the hey you grabbed cfo basket because that talking more about that company and the bad things that they done one that no american is going to be happy with so it just works against them to to push in that the dow is going down yeah so i had said apparently incorrectly not too long ago
that december is the worst month for stocks and so somebody doubted me on that and then sent me a chart that showed that the last quarter was actually pretty bad but it's not it's not the month of december specifically so the last quarter of the year traditionally and somebody needs to fact check me on this please because i'm not entirely often on this but the one chart i saw seemed to indicate that historically the fourth quarter was low now the thing you got to look at in deciding whether to be panicked or not about the stock is is seems to be reacting largely to headline news and the headline news is wait for it always exaggerated so for the the news the business model
all of the news industry is this can scare you that's better they make more money if they can scare you so all the press you're seeing about the risks in the financial risks etc are filtered through hyperbole their filtered through fear because that's the message that makes people the most money when you're so when you're watching the stock market drop based on the headlines a a lot of people who were let's say more just in the way they're looking at this are probably thinking it's a buying opportunity now that's not financial advice don't take any financial advice for maine but its statement the there's some people are going to say will definitely get a deal with china because we have to
the reason we will get a deal with china so we have to we have to they have to we have to we have to my take awhile that has to happen so those people who are willing to wait it out are going and yeah so the people willing to wait it out are probably going to be rewarded but that's not financial advice uh bitcoin is at its lowest right now well i hope appreciate what i've done for bitcoin i don't know if you know but bitcoin zooming zooming i said darn it people getting rich while adding nothing to the economy and they're going super rich while adding literally nothing to the economy so i said as a public service i'm going to stop this so i bought some bitcoin actually i bought a fun
the old speed and i said to myself this will stop it and that was the end of bitcoin now there's anything else you'd like me to stop by investing in it just let me know i'm sure i can i can kill it like i killed the corn and by the i'm not even joking a little bit about that why i bought it i literally bought it because if it kept on up well and have some but the odds of me not because actually that market were low alright can i stop how change a probably already have who makes opioids china without a trick question all right so i've got a question for you
in my new book i'm working on i am i'm writing on the idea that war may might be obsolete so that's my prediction war is obsolete and here's my argument so war between nuclear powers has been obsolete for some time because of mutually assured destruction if you if a nuclear power attacked another nuclear power there's a good odds that nobody wins so war usually happens when at least one boring party i have a good chance of winning and so nuclear powers they know that there's no such thing as winning in that environment so so we haven't any of those wars the smaller wars force say back in afghanistan and syria where big powers conquering small powers
it's not a nuclear risk because only one site has nuclear weapons and they're not going to use them non nuclear war but because it's so easy to get really good weapons to guerrilla resistance i i think the days of economically holding a conquered country are over meaning that if the united states conquered any smaller those citizens would have access to really good explosives really good drones really good weapons so that holding their country would never be economical it would always cost more to occupy country then you could gain by having it now that wasn't always the case war throughout history often had economic incentive even recently as world war two even hitler had a reasonable
he had a reasonable belief as crazy and evil as he was he had a reasonable rational reason to think that he could conquer neighboring countries and economically and here's the key economically hold them because the the resistance in those countries was likely to have just rifles and over time you could probably pacify that kind of a country but today they're going to have all kinds of weapons so i think it's not economical secondly because the economy is so interconnected if a big country conkers a small country and it's an unpopular conquest the big countries suffer economically because rest the world is going to say hey you stop doing that we're going to put some economic sanctions on you the happening with russia and its aggression against the ukraine
you see that happening with against saudi arabia and iran economic pressure because their proxy wars in yemen and of course iran because their proxy wars all over the place so the economic reason for war is now go on think about it i'm pretty sure that's that's a defensible statement that the economic incentive for war is completely gone now no conquering country even if they win the war can do it economically and if they can't do it economically just doesn't work so tell putin so i think that all that's left is will the specialty wars that there's a special situation and a special situation might be for example a room
country countering a neighboring russian speaking country that may be used to be part of their three and maybe the local population is the friendly towards the conquering country so if you specialty situations you'll crimea for example you'll still see that so i don't think that'll change but i think you're going to need the conquering country to at least neutral or positive about the conquest i think going to have to sort of be positive about it and speaking the same language will help as well um so so that's my my thesis my thesis is that because it's no longer economically feasible to conquer a
country no matter who you are except for those specialty cases so just won't see yeah i would argue that president trump is a big part of that new psychology as you see him putting economic pressure on north korea successfully n korea is responded in a rational way to the fact that they could never have never never ever have a functioning economy and that's the sort of pressure that trump is putting on iran iran in its current with its current stance on can never have a functioning economy ever it's just not an option because the intercom activity of the world and the fact the economic war so is so effective
likewise to see russia getting economically slapped around because of its your reasons pervert provocations so that's fine that's my optimistic feeling about the future is that it's no longer economical to conquer and hold a country except for special cases and in the special cases it's not even going to be clear the maybe they shouldn't have been conquered or didn't want to become occurred you that's what makes it a special case tell russia so russia is actually the phone the edge case you can russia and you can see the limits of what i'm talking about so russia taking over crimea is a perfect example of the special case but
if they try to extend that to ouray full conquest of ukraine and correct me if i'm wrong but if let's say theoretically russia just militarily or other ways concord ukraine just completely conquered would russia they better or worse economic situation after that i think worse and i think clearly worse because the international community would get pretty tough about it stoney's good example so estonia i think is safe because of russia moved against them there just would be
there would be no way to justify that and so i think the international community which is shut down russia as a as a trading partner with the world you know i think i think they're pipelines would be replaced with other sources so anyway so that's what i'm saying that war i think it will decline
how do you like to see a i don't have any thoughts on the candidates for ag or anything else right now because i just don't know those characters on any given yeah so that's my view can you tell where i am i'm in the deer valley utah so i'm in utah deer valley so one of the things they don't tell you when you travel to a place like this i got here and i that there's something called altitude sickness did you even know that was a thing somehow i got to my current age without knowing there was such a thing as altitude sickness where
of a thousand feet mostly when you get above a thousand feet it's hard harder to breathe until you get used to it and actually get flu like symptoms and i got up here and i thought i was dying or something 'cause i had like all these generic flu like symptoms and i couldn't breathe and you know i was head achy and all that stuff so i didn't know that there's a place you can go on vacation and that you can six simply you can be six simply by being there that doesn't seem fair it seems like you should have to get a bug or you know some specific illness but if you if you visit a nice town this is really a beautiful place if you just go to a nice place is
shouldn't make you sick just 'cause you're there he'll feel great when you get back maybe so so i'm feeling better today but yeah trying to stay hydrated as someone said you can die it felt like it yesterday yes i'm i'm sucking through the water like crazy but it's not enough all right work on your breath work yeah i've been trying to breathe deeply ok is there anything else is happening besides the staffing changes because i don't think uh 'cause i don't think those are interesting alright i'll talk to you all later
Transcript generated on 2019-11-11.