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Episode 665 Scott Adams: The Guy Who Saved the Planet, #TwitterPhilanthropy, Pancakes, Iran

2019-09-17 | 🔗

My new book LOSERTHINK goes on sale 11/5

Pre-order: https://bit.ly/2NRammu



  • Special Guest: Mr. Gomez, the selected winner of $1,000
    • a teacher who uses “Talent Stack” concepts
  • CNN article frames nuclear as USED TO BE dangerous
  • Mark Schneider, Mike Shellenberger deserve a LOT of credit
  • NYT Kavanaugh smear story, it was the NYT editor’s error?
    • A NYT top-tier editor accidentally did that?
  • Is Mollie Hemingway the most effective communicator on the right?
  • Pancakegate, funniest ridiculous anti-Trump story circulating
  • Shane Gillis, fired for being a comedian
  • Tim Xeriland’s well done video with audio overlay of me (ref. Nike)
  • Iran’s attack on Aramco was reportedly cruise missiles
    • What was the motivation for a seemingly really bad move?

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The post Episode 665 Scott Adams: The Guy Who Saved the Planet, #TwitterPhilanthropy, Pancakes, Iran appeared first on Scott Adam's Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Phantom antonym Do here, it's the is the best part of your day. It's a special part of the it's a day when you get to have a so I will too simultaneous Sept, not just with me, but with all the people around the world watching this at the same time feel connected to humanity. Fuel. The dopamine surging through your body, feel your day getting better just sitting there with your cup of beverage. You know it doesn't take much to join in it's easy. Everybody can do it. You don't need much. You know you need. All you need is a couple of mugger glasses, diner, cellist, Anchor, Thermostat Alaska, Cantina Grill, a vessel of any kind fill it with your favorite liquid. I'm partial to coffee join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the simultaneous sip.
Ah Well today I have a special guest, the special guest. It's a little update to something you know about. I was working with bill, pull to give away a little bit of his money. one thousand dollars- and I was experimenting so if you don't know Bill Paul Bill, Pulte and he's at at pull Tp Lte is doing a sort of a long term moving experimented which he is attempting to reach define philanthropy work, create a new model for philanthropy on the internet, hashtag intertitles philanthropy I'm and he asked to try an experiment. So the experiment was up to me, but he just said: how would you like to give away some my money? Do it the way you want to see what happens all so? The
the nature of this is experimentation. We're going to see what's happening here is what I did this different. I tried to create a system as opposed to a goal, and the system is, I wanted to see if the full, if we could do more than just give money to something or somebody who needs it. That would be great. That would be a call. What's your call give some money to somebody it, but what's a system this is it would be something where everybody involved something out of it, and so you would want to do more of it. So giving money once is great, creating a system where more people might give more money in the future. Well, that's better! I want to experiment with that and what I did was explicitly selfish and unselfish invisible at the same time. So that's system. I wanted to do something. It was selfish, meaning that I personally as the giver
in this case I'm giving away bill pulled money, but it is an experiment as the giver. I would guess at the of it so that I would be incentive and others would to word my situation to do the same thing The person who gets the money or entity get something out of it, so they like it soon so far. You have two winners and then the third, I was experimenting with is the audience so breaking the fourth Paul and getting the audience involved. So here the audience so now you watching the experiment you're going to help me evaluate it. Maybe somebody will someday decide to do something similar, but here's I did. I wanted to promote the yeah. That's in one of my books about talent, stacks and systems over goals would be great to two ideas powerful. There is so she ate with me. So that's the selfish part, if so like that idea. They might be more likely to buy my book
Putting that right out there right, there's nothing hidden. It would be great if people bought that book, that's good for Maine. What would I do if people bought my book have more money to try to more money away? You know sort of a virtuous circle, so I have selected among people who say that they had some involvement in the talent stack. In a school setting on Twitter. I said he's anybody using the idea of a talent stack out there and I Ok, I will give them the money, and that will be an excuse for me to show that the talent stack is catching on. Maybe other people will hear about it. Maybe other teachers will here, through this, so I'm going to I'm trying to get a secondary benefits. Third level benefits. Fourth level benefits. So it's a gift, it's philanthropy, but I'm I'm looking for a big play right by making a system that gives visibility spread. An idea, that's very powerful. and so I would like to introduce you to the winner. Mister Gomez,
in your say, hi and Mister Gomez. Should I call you junior okay? Well, I'm gonna call you Mister Gomez as his respect and to reinforce that you are a teacher. Where are you teaching California and tell us about where you first heard of the talent stack in and how you teach it to your kids. Stops by circling around twenty sixteen that's right about the it's something that just kind of want you to get to the next level commonalities different. It just takes that's right that that's how it started right away and they don't have the best and everything being work on
friend, abilities and you put them together to be unique as succeed that way and how do people respond to everything so the first time a kid here is that they don't have a cap on where they can go if they use a simple model of just stacking skills together, which is very approachable hello: does it blow kids minds? Do you think they get? It are the two young. What what's? What's you feedback you get for the kids arsenal stories. I tell your story the person in the room, so so they yeah others a low income area. So there's a lot of the log in go down. You know I might be biased, but you so like the smartest teacher of about my life and I'm not even joking about that by the way,
because uh, you know obviously I'm biased, because you've been influenced by some of the things I'm saying, but the fact that you've picked up on exactly all the right stuff and applied it in exactly the right place and play the right way. S is is pretty so. If I gotta say you would press Maine so so you've received your money now right. Thank you. So very much we're doing a project this week. It's with posters and those diesel pads are quite expensive, but thank you to pick him up and not have to be sticker, shocked that that that is terrific, and I thank you a lot for being part of understanding that getting the message out about what you're doing could be the most powerful thing that we do, because if more people get this ideas, it's just so motivating to know that there's a
real, easily approachable way out. I also love the the you said: you combined the concept with stories because teach you know it's the story that works. That's my favorite part in your fans are not often really went dead, Portland and it's hard for history podcast very much in the same vein. It really gets the kids that they remember it and there yeah, so you are my favorite teacher of all time. It's official, I think, you're brilliant love, what you're doing and I'm glad that you could join us and thanks so much for thanks even contacted me and telling me that you were using this stuff. I think it's just a great way to start the day. Just hearing this story, I'm going to I'm going to sign off with you and get on with stuff, but thanks so much, and we will talk to you later I for now. Alright, doesn't that make you feel good?
I so you don't have to answer me right now, but just as value eight is value. Eight hello. I've tried to system lines this process. Alright, I'm being overtly obvious as much as I can so there's nothing hidden is partly for me. That's what makes it a system 'cause. I would want to do this again if it works. If I get good feedback from I'm going say, huh give me a thousand dollars and it turned out good for me. Well, one that be great I'll. Do it again. Somebody else is a thousand dollars so and then the fourth wall. As I said, that's really the important part. If I can, if I use philanthropy just spread an idea. The idea is more more powerful than one thousand dollars and look at much look at attention. That idea is going to get for one thousand dollars and that's all pulled because yeah I wasn't going to do this. He bill came up
Z concept he's one who's testing it for the record. By the way we paid him with Paypal. because I know there's gonna be somebody here, some critics who says that you're collecting names- I think it's all a data data mining scare, you and it's you know it's some kind of scheme with Dorsey in the cash app, so just just to take that off the table, we just said I'll just pay with Paypal yeah. It would just take. Take that conversation also table alright, let's talk about something else, a list. What about the guy who saved the planet? Have you ever had a fantasy that you could save the planet? I have that one all the time
More when I was young, you know when you're thinking of your Superman or somethings, like all save the planet now wasn't Trump was a trump here's. My here's, my thinking now, of course, there's a little bit of five per billion this. But let me, let me tell you about let's say: climate change is a big problem. World is going to be destroyed, if somebody could fix climate change well, at least half of the world would say you fixed climate change. Well, you just save the World so little bit of hyperbole. But you know what I'm talking about now. Let's say you didn't believe in climate change being a problem. Obviously the climate changes but could be a problem. Well, even then, you still need nuclear. If you want to be a successful, they can feed all of its people and meet all of its obligations and do what a world needs to do still need to clear
We don't have a another path that can get us all the way there, and so yesterday was yesterday before recently CNN. Just did a big piece that was unabashedly pro nuclear. It was pro nuclear in a very specific way, which is what caught my attention. It would be one thing to see an article that says that somebody it was always said: Nuclear's good is still saying it, hey guess of nuclear one thing it would not have been impressive, but instead the way article was framed talked about how nuclear used to be scarier, but the public is not up to date, so check this framing the frame ' is that it used to be dangerous, but the click doesn't know
How well the industry has evolved and gotten to a point where those same dangers not so dangerous. It also explained that the only people have ever died from a nuclear energy accident were in noble and eh, thing about that is different: they didn't they even build it with that a containment, the containment dome or whatever it is. So, if you compare anything to Chernobyl, that's in an invalid. comparison, but if you look at the other, so called disasters from Fukushima to three mile island whatever, when died, nobody ever zero, zero zero deaths. So, but what what? What caught my attention? That the article is that it was CNN,
type of article. You would fully expect to see on Fox news. Conservatives and Republicans are are pretty much pro nuclear and add happened for ever, but getting CNN's grout getting the left. The Democrats to be on board is a big deal. I think it made a difference. The injury and and Cory Booker were false. Pro nuclear and I've the it's that's hard to work. You can't ignore that right, because once your side is saying it and here's the catch The two smartest people among the Democrats you're just going to measure your brain of the two smartest people running for president. Well, maybe Yang and Booker right. If you I don't know if you know bookers credentials, but he is a lot smarter than you and I are that's for sure academically.
So somebody saying war and I think you could throw or in the back she's, obviously very, very smart, but yeah they got a smart history. Saying put a check is really smart. Okay got a you, mommy booty judges, very smart too. They have some really smart people there you got. You can't take that away from him right, but uh. The way to save the earth was that the people on the left, the CNN, crowd to lose their minds to where the right already was yeah. In both cases they both. The you know more educated, but it looks like that's happening right now, meaning that it looks like CNN by the fact that they do even run this article and the nature of it and the spurs the way it was framed as things used to be bad, but you don't realize that we're going to educate you, things were actually much
safer with modern technology and I'm going to credit Mark Schneider as being probably the most influential voice on social media. Now, of course, Michael Shellenberger gets he has to get gigantic credit, I'm not going to rank them terms of who's, more effective, so they're doing their different types of. I would say: Shell Burger is a little more emphasis on current generation, the stuff things we can do right now and well. Mark Schneider is little more emphasis on generation four and was around the corner and we're not quite with the design everybody loves, but that's where we need to push too so they're, very productive as an pair one continue with what we can do right now. One taking your mind too,
the thinking past the sale, if you will from do you do nuclear to which type uh. So I feel I feel as if they've moved, move the dial. Those does you been watching this unfold over baby two years. Would you agree? Would you agree that first of all, Mark Nighter and Shellenberger are the two most effective advocates for sure and that the two of them are sort of a perfect pair, even if they may, they may have some differences in preferences? On the on the margins, but basically once telling you what you can do now once telling you, where your mind is going to go very, very good double punch and I, of course have been trying to be as helpful as possible.
Sting the signal, wherever I can, I try to help frame things so that the the message has the most power it possibly can well, I feel like I feel, like some kind of corn recently turned. Have you noticed that when I pushing on nuclear. I get very little pushback. You know I'm not the expert I, but even when I'm promoting nuclear. If you look at the comments very unusual for any topic to get those little push back as as as any of us are getting on nuclear think about it, think about how lack of push there is when anybody who's pro nuclear just lays out. There k you don't really see people even with much of a problem. Somebody says it's because I block people. Yes, one person I block every every two days is totally changing the situation all
so so it was something else. There are some stories that are horrible and entertaining at the same time, and I feel like I will be a terror person if I were to reveal how entertained I am at a story: deaths about death, so you've been warned, but there's a story today about apparently three teenagers with masks, we're approaching some rural home in George. I think it was Georgia, yeah and as the three I think they were armed as well as the three masked teenagers approach, the home, the the neighbor to neighbor opened up fire, which is totally legal. I guess because he was protecting his home, so the neighbor opens up with fire and then I don't know if we have all the facts, but it sounds like this is what happened
looks like there was a handgun involved with the first first series of shots, and then some witness was saying this soon after that they heard an a r go off. So apparently the neighbor I heard some gunshots and came out and and just they just blew away three kids, so the three I'm calling kids 'cause they were teens. I don't know how they were, but for teenagers, that they were coming to rob this guy's house and the guy laid down fire with his hand gun until his neighbor could come over with. They are and should be shot. So this job and and here's the part they kill
all three of and and the homeowner in the neighbor who were uninjured, their property was protected and they just murdered also not murder. It was self defense, but he they killed all three of them. No charges filed. That's the punch line. These two neighbors just riddled these three idiots with bullets, literally just just shot him to be is, is in their front yard no charges filed. Well, that's the sort of story. They can reduce Berkeley, burglary rates. So those of you who are people remind me everyday, it's like Scott Scott. When you talk about guns, you forget, I believe the burglars had some kind of firearm. It was a little unclear and sorry, but there was something about return fire, so I think they did so
people say Scott Scott you're, always forgetting the the murders that didn't happen because he had a gun, and I don't forget that, but you can still talk about the net. If the net death is high, you'd still like them, that number of people getting killed by guns to be lower. It doesn't matter that you know it doesn't matter that both the numbers are very high. You're talking about you'd, rather save more people than Killam still a goal to reduce gun deaths, even though I acknowledge that is certainly the existence of defensive weapons. course reduces the number of some kinds of crimes, in some cases all right. The New York Times story. Yes, getting it's just getting sadder, you know the stories New York Times ran story. I guess it was based on the book which talked about
somebody accusing Supreme Court as Kavanaugh exposing himself in some high school situation and what the Americans left out of the story is that the alleged victim, if you just is comment. So they don't have any comment from the victim and the witnesses say it didn't happen, not not what this it didn't happen, at the friends of the alleged victim says but the alleged victim say it didn't happen or they don't remember. She doesn't remember it, that's it not that it didn't happen, but she doesn't remember it now. That, of course, is completely exculpatory information. Had it been in the original story that there's no known victim, that would be pretty important right and the victim has no idea what you're talking about that's important. Now the new update Well, first of all, hat tip to Mollie Hemingway who was the one who caught that discrepancy?
I believe she saw the book and noticed that the article was not compatible with it left out to keep points, and I thought to myself: if Mollie Hemingway had not noticed that we Did anybody else have notice it? What if nobody noticed think about thinking about how close we were? How close we were to something truly awful if that, if that rumor had how to just sit out there, that was truly awful. Only thing like seven billion of us in the world right we're going about her all seven all seven billion. We were going to do anything about it, but thank God all you have a way did something about it right because it changes the whole nature of the thing put it put the New York Times and that I would say, almost a day spiral of lack of credibility. That's too much they're not going to go into business because of but
as a really big deal, yeah I've been saying for awhile that if you were to make a uh, let's say if you were to pull together an all star team, this, it all star team of let's say Trump supporters. If we can say that should probably be the captain of, I would say, Mollie Hemingway is the most effective communicator on the right. Would you agree. I do not not counting President trump himself, but for those who are, let's say supportive side with the president. I would say she would be the most effective communicator if you, if you combine both her ability to speak in public and communicate, so she has all the the top level skills. But on top of that she seems of the best knowledge and ideas.
Do you mean yeah? I mentioning a number of other names and they're strong in their own way taking nothing away from them, but I think she would have to be the captain of the team if you, if you are forming a team. I thank all the people that you just mentioned. Yeah Byron York is great, Kim Sproxil, amazing yeah, a lot of other people but yeah Candice's other, but I think if they were to sit in a room and had to pick their own captain, I think the bigger. I think they would take her anyway couple answer, but my point is that the the latest update on the story is that the writers are blaming the editors. So the writers are saying that information wasn't there, but the jurors took out a sentence that had the name of the alleged victim because,
as a policy, the New York Times would not show the name of the victim, and so when they took the sentence out that the victim's name, the speculation from the writers, is that they they cut too much, and it got the too much context and had that story going in the ways they Rick originally wrote. It would have been had all the right context. Now. Let me give you some a. Let me give you some context from my experience to get a sense of the odds of that explanation being correct. So the first thing you need to know is that the the the explanation. That somebody did something. Dumb is always the best explanation. If you have multiple competing Haitians one of them is a clever scheme to take the country, you is a conspiracy theory
and the other explanation that fits the facts as well. Somebody made a mistake, usually it's the simple one. Somebody made a mistake. Usually, that's all this, but let me give you a. Let me give you. So contacts so I've worked with the New York Times editors before I don't. I've worked with Wall Street Journal editors, I'm working with them right now, actually doing something that might appear in Wall Street Journal if I'm lucky. So I've worked with the top editors in publishing and in newspapers for most my career. Here's what I know that you don't know, there's a really big deal
between an editor who is working for a a top publication. Dear Times, Wall Street Journal Etcetera. Then there is from someone who just knows how to be an editor. There's a big difference between Bye, bye. He publishing editors, a penguin and yet the top level people. I'm say they are top level people to be clear. So the top publishers yeah my publisher dear to us Wall Street, journal those that it are the ones fixing the mistakes for the writers and the writers are very qualified right. So just so, I understand this. The writers for any of those publications of top levels are the best writers in the world. That's how they get to be in the best publications in the world. In terms of it all the way, suite measure test publication, not getting the fake news, question right, but otherwise does publication and the other jurors
are way better than them: 'cause the editors are the ones that fixing people who are already really really at what they do. In my experience, that would be very unusual or an editor operating at that level. To make that mistake, not impossible. So I'm not going to tell you, oh that didn't happen, but if you I had the odds yeah was it an honest mistake, verses did somebody say in our just kinda, like it better. Without that information, I both of those see my likely, which is interesting, the the odds of that they intentionally looked at that and said. I think, we'll put this in with the l
the context, the changes that completely she feels actually hard to believe. In other words, I don't believe it, but how likely is it that it was just a mistake possible. It's possible, but pretty darn are likely in my experience. It was, I say, it's unlikely, it would be like you know you. If you you handed Michael Jordan, I say: let's say you handed Shaquille O'Neal a basketball while you standing directly below the hoop and he can reach up and him and he can put it through the hoop, and you say to yourself: alright, Shaquille is your job. There's nobody playing defense, you just have to take the ball and just reach it up and just go like drop it through the hoop. What are the odds that you can do that successfully? Now it's not impossible. They should Gilles, drunk or crazy or playing.
He goes up there and the like history, eminent bounces out like it could happen, I'm not saying that that could never happen in any world, no matter what, but in terms of the difficulty level, that's very the analogy is work to make a point. Now, just don't work to make an argument. So the point is how simple it is it so that everything that the editing event of taking out the sentence is still making sure that the All the context was there was so simple to do right. It was like she killed. Just try to drop a ball into a basket with no defense might have been a mistake. You never know all right uh. Are you watching pancake gate the funniest story of the day, there's some relative of Trump's
who's, claiming that when he visited his, I guess ancestral home where his mother lived in Scotland? Well however, long ago was that he forgot somebody whose husband had died and then stole some pancakes by putting stole they use. still he stole pancakes and put them in his pocket. That's right! There's a story in Newsweek the President Trump when he visited relatives grabbed a pile of pancakes and put them in his pocket. Now I don't know his services was syrup. Why not? Why not? It doesn't make, story, any less ridiculous. So let's say I had syrup on up and you know there are strawberries on it. Let's say it was a big stack
and, let's say the only way it could fit in his pocket as if it's like squash it all up and just finished his pocket like that. Why not? because the story itself is so ridiculous. There isn't. There isn't I just yes, it's true: it's not the slightest chance. Well, if he quote stole some pancakes, let's define steals. Did he see that there was a big spread of food and more than anybody could be and did he move, for example, that I don't know baron or somebody was hungry and might like a pancake did he put them in a plastic bag yeah. take a little to go. Pancake,
Four, I don't know is get or whatever for someone else. I don't know maybe, but I've got a feeling that the way it's expressed as he's a pancakes dealer who puts pancakes in his pocket- that's probably not the most accurate story. You've ever read to all right. If any of you are losing connection, just sign, often sign back on it'll, be fine promise you shaving Gillis Comedian, who made the the offensive remarks about Asian Americans, so he lost his job because the tape surfaced. You remember the Andrew Yang had said, and he reinforced. I guess is another issue He said the comedian should be treated differently. I like that answer like that answer. I do agree that comedians should be treated
and then, if a comedian crosses a line, you shouldn't treat at the same if they're doing it in the in the service of thinking, they're funny and they just miss because missing a joke is not like being racist, they're very different right. So I was thinking about this Shane Gillis Guy, because I saw a little recording of the offensive thing you did and I was mentally comparing it to Dave Chappelle's so stand up, and I thought what's the difference between the types of things that Chappelle said and now play Diddy not lose his job. She fell, but he was critically acclaimed and you know a lot of people including me or calling it one of the greatest performances of com of all time I mean it's actually one for the ages. It was that good, so
I just shipped allocate away with it, and this poor guy Gillis gets fired before his first day of work on Saturday night live here. Is the difference shipped all those funny Chappelle is funnier. That's it. You can get away with all kinds of stuff if you're funny. Just people laugh, they say all I get it you're being offensive to make me laugh, it did make me laugh, If I get it, you know I'm laughing at myself for you treating seriously the topic when you were just trying make me laugh. So it's a left when you look when you looked at the old tape of kill, saying the comments he said. Couldn't even tell you was trying to be funny. Really I mean I
now if he was, but if you were, if he was, if he was, he felt so that's a comedy rule and it's one that I follow with my comics. I often draw comic in draft form and I look at it and say: oh that's going to that's going to make somebody mad. That's going to offend somebody, and then I asked the second question: how funny is it if it's funny enough all offend people, because only the truly humorless people are going to be bothered and you can't help them it's nothing. You can do to help them, but if it's funny I will defend it because it's humor and if people are laughing all safe, see that's what I was trying to do is see those people laughing this funny. That's why I did it. So it's not about the offense, but the offense was part of the Jew,
as part of the energy of it, so it's it's using something people would recognize as offensive, but re purposing it into a joke which is or does it should tell? Does that, like maybe nobody's ever done and. Gillis, just doesn't do it, so I got fired. Maybe he will learn letter rant. Now. Let's talk about the so a twitter user, a TIM and I may be pronouncing it wrong because it starts with an x his last name. is at X, c r. I l A and t, but I I tweeted this today, so you can see it any tweeted, a Nike ad, the capper Nick is, and it's a it would. She is one of the just do it adds and one of the main themes as a skateboarder whose trying to scape or down a long set of railing and he keeps falling off on the concrete and getting back up until he makes it work.
And the essence of the commercial is how amazing this guy is because he doesn't quit Yeah. He falls off the rails and he just gets back on does again, and somebody took my the took my audio from when I was talking about it on periscope, I'm Doug, my audio over the commercial. So you can the visual of the commercial, but you can hear me talking how dumb it is. It's actually pretty well done so take that you won't know that it's my voice over when you see the tweet, you actually have to play the tweets and now its main, and then somebody mocked me by saying in response so that tweet. Somebody on Twitter said to me sounds he had a fun childhood as opposed to the famous skateboarder, so
saying the skateboarders, you know living his life just doing it have a good good life. The people, like me, probably did not have a good child, to which I responded, which one of us had more concussions. Just let that lay there for a minute. I could say more about that book. I think I said it all. I would be willing to bet the very large amount of money that said. Skateboarder has brain damage, maybe not the kind that keeps them from going to work. Certainly the kind that will affect his life in a way that he will not like the entire ad, showed him skateboarding on top of a rail falling repeatedly arm concrete without wearing a helmet
without wearing a helmet without wearing a helmet. He had no helmet. This was Nike, they support sports. She should they should somebody playing an extreme sport with obvious risk of head injury with no helmet, totally despicable all right, and I have no concussions. So how about that struck better ran, so they were really a situation with the attacks on our Ramco oil facilities is, of course, we're just now pulling out of the fog of war. So in the fog of war it looked like the who sees in Yemen. Launch some kind of sophisticated drone attack that flew many miles into a neighboring country and did with Point accuracy take out much of fat and oil facility.
Now, when I heard that I said to myself, that sounds like something I didn't think could happen and the currency situation, the updates are you're, probably did not happen that in fact, the who's. These are probably taking credit for something they did not do, because they would not have that capability number one. It looks like it was not drones. Had it been drones, I would have said yeah. Maybe they could do that. You know I mean they would have to get the drone from somebody else meaning around, but maybe they could do that. Apparently they were cruise missiles. Now I don't think there with these have cruise missiles and it looks like preliminarily, they were launched from IRAN and that they were launched on a path that was intended to disguise where they came from. In other words, it
it in the wrong headed in the wrong direction before the right direction. Reportedly, some of them did not succeed and blow up at their destination, but rather have been captured intact, which some people are saying would give. Whoever found them enough information to know where they came from this other thing. If you find an unexploded cruise, my does it still have in its memory. I guess information about where it came from. Does it store that, because a sim city, if I were going to send a cruise missile, the first thing I do is a race or at least have a program and that it would erase any mention of where it came from? Is that that's not a thing yeah, it really they're making cruise missiles the sophisticated devices and when it lands? If it's unexploded, you could tell exactly where it came from.
Maybe I'm not to rule that out, but I'm surprised to hear that so here's what's developing, so there's still some uncertain about whether a rand was involved, but may maybe we'll nail that down. Maybe we won't and so question I ask myself is what exactly what IRAN be trying to accomplish by doing this and I'm a little bit confused on the motivation. Are you if you were, if you were the iranian Supreme leader. If you want to guarantee that your country got destroyed and bad things happen to you, wall making not much impact whatsoever on your end. Yes, this is the sort of thing you do, because what exactly did IRAN think would happen, but, let's say hypothetically weed
it was then, how do we explain the motivation 'cause? I don't get it do you I certainly understand if they thought they could not be detected if they thought they could not be detected. then. I suppose anything you do to a mortal enemy is fair game, but if they were not detected, were they trying to make it look like the who sees had more power than they do? What it in, exactly what way were they trying to influence Saudi Arabia, see that person missing right, because What would you reasonably expect to happen? There were two possibilities: if the who sees ended up- let's say incorrectly being blamed because they took, I think taking credit, for it is probably something that the Iranians ask them to do. Don't you think just speculating, but with the who sees take credit for it um just for no reason not for no reason, but would they do it for their?
reasons. Do they have an internal reason to take credit for it 'cause it feels like they don't 'cause it would just make. Saudi Arabia angry or would make them want to, there's, certainly not, let me put it this way If the point was for the who sees to convince Saudi Arabia to stop supporting the government in Yemen I would think that would work the office right, because how can Saudi Arabia a buy it by allowing the who sees to let's say, prevail in Yemen? If there's a once, we just took out their oil refinery and the right on their border. I don't see any situation in which the who sees that you know would be good is to attack a major infrastructure within the country that were right next to it. Here's some here's, some terrorist advice, don't attack a major installation of the country,
you're right next to if it's a much bigger country? This just feels like bad strategy right, so certainly anything to do with any and feels like it's good thing, but I don't get the strategy now could be I'm just not seeing it so there maybe in an hour or something go and see and say or Fox news here's why they did. It makes perfect sense and say: oh ok, I think that but I have a thirty yes, so I can see the who's. These thank you would be in their self interest, and yet they took credit for which suggests that the Iranians might have asked them to take credit to to conceal what they did. So then here's the thing: why would a ran want to cause this much damage with the high risk of being detected? You have to think if it's good, if they were cruise missiles, do they really think we're not going to detect cruise
missiles. I I I feel like we could do that. I don't know it looks like we will, so why would they do something that has such a high risk of being caught and really isn't going to change the balance except make it worse? for them. I don't see any situation in which IRAN could have plausibly considered that this action would have helped them. Can you get in the car? Am I missing something huge somebody says putting bombs on tankers? Is nuts too? No, because the bombs on the tankers were so minor that they could they could and were you know ignore it. We did a cyber attack, but you know there was nothing kinetic there, so it seems to be that when they did the threatening the shipping that felt like more negotiating did
because I didn't try to kill anybody that was trying to they're just trying to remind us that shipping is at risk right, so it's sort of like they reminded us, somebody say has to do with balloons and if Bolton's gone they feel like they can do anything they want really. Do you think the Iranians are so unsophisticated that they think that uh that Bolton? What is the difference between what's going to happen in IRAN? I don't think I doubt it and by the way, if Bolton Left- and I thought there was less chance of war, let me trying to negotiate instead, because it feels like negotiating without Bolton would be a better play than doing meeting with Bolton. So here's where I stand the a fish story is that IRAN is behind it an probably beyond it.
I don't understand: do you because short, of having some motivation. That can make any kind of sense and remember that whatever Think of the iranian leadership far they've done things which can quite directly be tied to their self interest yeah, you can see what do they want? What do they do Okay, doing that makes sense if this is what you want, but this latest thing show me says: an oil price increase so it would make their own oil could that be the play, but that would be a terrible play because, again, the odds of being detected or so high. so uh? How do we explain this lately? Even if I were to speculate like trying to get in the heads of the iranian leadership? Are they thinking that they will simply cause enough trouble that everybody will back down and just let them have their way in the Middle EAST? That's not a thing right
They couldn't possibly think that quickly they they would have to think the escalation is met with other escalation, especially since you know so many people, for that specific escalation. Were they trying to do it to get a result in Yemen and again the fact that the Iranians obviously would be the technical backing, for This is did something: how does that it will be obvious that came from IRAN, so I don't get that and and how does a partial attack on a sovereign country, Saudi Arabia? How does a partial attack ever since, because I know when we do, it were usually know bombing some country that doesn't have the the facility to fight back Saudi Arabia a lot of facility fight back it just doesn't make sense on any strategic military political
negotiating level that I can understand so yeah for that price increase in oil that such a temporary thing. I don't see that they would do something that would risk being eradicated, risks total war on IRAN. I don't think they would risk it for six months of higher oil price. Does that make sense? Somebody says they're doing it to bring on Armageddon. If you Bring on Armageddon you try harder right. I mean blowing up half of oil. I agree, how hard is that even trying. They will try harder than that. They have a lot more weapons if they were going to empty the empty. The magazine I'll try to use the right gun terminology, no, the pedantic zero get all over, so
they would have emptied the magazine if they wanted to just get killed in the process. The oil refinery does not guarantee that they get destroyed in a and and Armageddon situation. But if they've done more, they certainly could made it happen and they could have done more. So he says it's personal like a feud. Well, here's the thing that would suggest that IRAN has, for the first time, just suddenly started being rational and their international relations. That would be a change and it would not be explained by anything. Could it explained by the Ayatollah, actually losing his faculties. Let me Let me introduce, let me introduce a new idea, ok here's an idea that I believe is. The only idea is terms of x
in the situation that can fit all the available facts. You're ready. The ayatollah has been trying to skateboard board on a railing. That's got brain damage order. Some crazy stuff is the Supreme leader. They couldn't stop yeah, of course, that's a semi joke, but the the real point is he is of a certain age. Please tell us in the comments: I mean how old is open up another device and uh check that out how old is come any and notice how well I pronounce that? How many that's big! I just did my audio book and I had I had how many is name in there yeah. It took me twenty minutes working MIKE with my audio editor, to figure out how to pronounce it correctly. I see is Randy so how
the people at age eighty still have all of their faculties. Now, if you're in the United States, you've got the 25th amendment and we, have a process for a comfortable and elegant way to replace somebody, who's who's lost their mental, how does that work in IRAN if you're the iranian leader and you started to lose it some point at which anybody will be replaced? Yeah there there's some amount of craziness or even your friends and relatives will say: ok you're going in the closet now were you there Nothing left of you we're just going to put you in the closet, but what happens in the first twenty five percent of that? let's say you're, eighty years old and you're starting to lose. It. You you're, not all the way where even even your and allies are going say. Ok, it's too far. We have to do something now.
What is he still in complete power and he's lost twenty five percent of his brain processing power? How unusual would that be if you're, eighty years old, unfortunately not unusual? So if I had to pick one explanation, it goes like this supreme leader. How many is reaching a point of climbing mental capability, and this is the most visible signal of it. It could be telling us that, internally, the iranian leadership is having some tough decisions. They need to make is a this, even if you thought that how many was not, let's say, obviously mentally defective. let's say you had a meeting with them and you didn't detect anything that was different, But then you walk out of the meeting and you find out by reading the International news
The guy you just had a meeting with probably just ordered a massive drone attack on a neighboring country. which would almost guarantee that you personally are going to get killed. You personally the person who just left the meeting, because you're also a high level or official or you wouldn't be having meetings with the Supreme Leader and you're kind of dead. Now, if it, if it turns out that this sparks of war, Of course, the leadership would be in the most peril. You that soldiers would be bombed first, but that would be just to get to the leadership and they would be kind of so If you were one of the leaders around the Ayatollah, what would you think of, presumably the leaders decision to launch this attack? If that's, what happened. what would you think of that? Would you think that was mentally, capable.
Some might, but not all of them. So here's, my guess. My guess- is that internal to the iranian leadership, to the degree that they also believe that IRAN launched the attack. Maybe they don't believe it, but I would imagine they're starting to believe it. They should be having conversations about getting rid of the top. Guy And what that looks like, so I would almost guarantee that there are serious conversations in ran going not right now about a change in leadership and that's and that's why? So that's my best speculation is that this attack, if it were, It's proven it's rainy and- and we don't see any other clear motive- that it's actually just a mental problem that the iranian people we actually need just need some help right,
because remember I say this often. Iranian people are pretty awesome. I mean everybody says that right as a country, they produce great people highly educated. meeting many of them live in this country. I know tons of young rainy immigrants and yeah the second generation and they're just awesome people. So I would love a future in which the United States and IRAN could free. how we're getting along great and everything. So I feel we're solidly on the side of the iranian population and it turns out they're pretty pro pro western themselves and they're, not big fans of their own leadership, but
as long as their leadership was at least mentally capable yeah, they could apparently they could put up with it. At least you know, they're willing to put up with that little purses, whatever the alternative is which could get ugly real revolution. But now we, they still be willing to put up with this, because, if you're an iranian citizen- and we believe your leadership, just attacked a major oil facility in a neighboring country that is bristling with american military, technology and is and you're surrounded by enemies. Who would just love to take you out and are just looking for a good excuse? and you just gave it to him. And you're the iranian people, and you say who's going to pay for this? I who who's going to pay for this mistake. Mostly the iranian citizens, this
a mistake by the iranian leadership that puts at risk what half a million Would you say if there were a full out war with IRAN, would it kill half of Do you citizens who trying to mind their own business? Probably I mean it would be that. That range right at me, somewhere between fifty thousand and half a million when you guess would be the cost. List of war with IRAN, depending on how quickly we could get to their leadership, so it feels like the war is on. So let me say that again, It feels like the war is on, but here's the twist. The United States. Is on a side, not IRAN's leadership side, but on a rand site. the United States is actually siding with the population of IRAN, because I think KEN is speculation
That the citizens are just saying we did what how many times do you think the iranian citizens ones were paying attention to international affairs? How many times do you think they were? You know silently in their coffee shops or hookah bars or whatever they do their cafes and how many m just read that news and that they looked at each other and they said We just did what, because they realize what just happened. They realize that their leadership just took it too far, and how would they explain, you're sitting in the cafe. Are you saying ha ha, I'm so glad we, you know, gave a black guy to our enemies. Saudi Arabia. Do you think, maybe I'll. but I think a lot of them are sitting there saying Old Lee Cal there was Yeah, I it'll you had
job. You had one job, don't start a war with the United States. Let me explain this more carefully to you supremely how many this is every iranian citizen talking. We. We like that, you working on you, know keeping the country running and stuff like that. Those are all important jobs, but those are mostly delegated all right leader is not picking up the garbage, that's mostly delegated their local elections and stuff. On that stuff He basically had one job. Supreme leader. You had one job Start a war with the United States and sitting in your cafe or wherever you turn on your phone, and you see the news Supreme Leader, did the one and only thing he's not suppose to do one job, no
war with the United States looks like you might have just on that. We don't know how this will shake out all right. That's all I have to talk about to day. I hope that you of all pre ordered my book lose thank early early opinions are stellar, people are liking, it It's telling me it's going be a gigantic bestseller, I'm sure they're right, are you can pre order, it just go to my twitter, feed or just just Google loser think and go to your favorite book. You can see if they're available for immediate pre order, delivery November fifth there asking it: will there be an audio book? The answer is yes, I have already recorded the audio book and it will be of for pre order as well. Thank you for those who have already preordered
uh. I know you want me to talk about corn pop, but I just can't get interested in that story. Maybe tomorrow I'll take a look at it and I will talk to you later