« Coffee With Scott Adams

Episode 76: SPYGATE, Iran and MS-13

2018-05-23 | 🔗


  • 4 things we know about SPYGATE
  • “Word salad” is a sign of cognitive dissonance
  • People are naturally primed to believe their own side
  • Keep an open mind about things…cause they might be cognitive dissonance
  • Cognitive scientists are experts at “brainwashing”
  • Is it a legal defense to say brainwashed by cognitive scientists?
  • Iran considering law to prevent financing terrorism
  • President Trump ALWAYS “shakes the box” looking for solutions
  • What is the trigger for Middle East issues, lack of knowledge or cognitive dissonance?
  • Starbucks corporate decision regarding restrooms and their facilities

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The post Episode 76: SPYGATE, Iran and MS-13 appeared first on Dilbert Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
better to do bum bum bum bum bum bum bum hey everybody come on in here it's a fun day you know some of your days are more fun than other days i declare today a fun day and if you're in here early and if you're prepared and if you can see the future you know that the simultaneous step is almost ready to happen here it comes get ready oh that's good stuff so so we have a name for our scandal you probably notice by now president trump has dubbed the latest edge to scandal of brennan and clapper in kobe and struck and all those folks
allegedly trying to tank his campaign with allegedly a spy and we're calling it spygate now i don't know that spygate is now somebody else pointed out on twitter the president has a great sense for simplification so we've got this public that's trying to sort it all out we can't tell our russia scandals from our deep stays scandals why is it the same people and why people having meetings and think about lawyers lawyers lawyers so the public has this big complicated ball of accusations allegations and
are all tied up it's not even one scandal it's like it's like this weird you know hybrid cyborg scandal thing that were we can't follow so what is the symbol of fire in chief new for us boom spike gate there it is all that complexity taken down to one word spygate now independent of what true and what is not true we may never know but the the branding of it as spy spy is actually quite effective and will make a difference it's a sort of it's sort of branding that moves the needle anyway so as you know i talk about cognitive
distance all the time and one of the things there happens when people are in cognitive dissonance is they start spouting word salad and ridiculous explanations for things don't even make sense they don't even make sense as words you know they they have their sentences but you look at it you go i can't even agree or disagree with that that's i don't even know what's happening it looks like just babble coming out now so that's usually your sign that you've reached that someone you're talking to is in cognitive dissonance let me share with you my tweets from this morning one of them is put is there's almost seven hundred retweets in about five minutes twenty one minutes and i said the following and i think this sums up everything we know about spiking so my tweet this morning was spy gate
i have four things to understand about spygate number one there was no spy in the trump campaign two the spike that did not happen was totally justified three it would be bad for national security to identify the spy who doesn't exist number four his name is stephan i don't think i'm wrong on any of those things i'll read it again things we know about spygate most spy of the trump campaign the spying it did not happen was totally justified because of russia three would be very bad for national security to identify the spy who doesn't exist and for his name is steven now if that's not kog dissonance i don't know what is i don't
you got any that wrong except i knew people would say no it's not a spy you can't say that informant is a spy that's crazy stuff so i thought i would so that would help you understand the difference between a spy and whatever this was so so i treated also this morning people there's a big difference between spy and the person who is contracted by an intelligence agency to secretly he'll trade if trade organization provide information and manipulate outcomes why is this so hard to understand yeah so it's how spy it's just someone that a government budgens agency contractid to infiltrate
organization secretly provide information and manipulate outcomes but that's not a why for god sakes so i think we've got the other side has had to lean on now my other tweet that got a lot of attention got retweets well as you probably saw the writers is putting the generic tracking poll of gop verses dams waiting for the first time that the gop is six on the generic ballot meaning they do a poll of would you vote for a generic republican or a generic democrat it used to be the public would say i we want the democrat which was bad news for the twenty eighteen mid terms if you were a republican but let me just reverse according to reuters we'll have to see if that holds but at the moment reversed try to
did that pull out and i said on the plus side democrats still have one hundred percent support from ms thirteen anaran now four thousand four hundred people thought that was funny enough to retweet but it's more than funny oh it's more than funny is the answer to the question a trump supporter if if president trump is not a racist can you read to maine why he has much support from the kkk and you probably didn't know how to answer that question you would be like uhm well it's complicated and you know people to support people for different reasons and why why can't the kkk have their own reasons and be wrong about it while other people have these effort as hard
explain is it this is one of those it'll be your still be your spouse kind of questions where where there's nothing you could do after the questions been asked the answer is built into the question so why did the kkk support president trump so here's the real reason that i tweeted this it wasn't because it was funny although it was it was because it's the answer to the question let me do this for you so you can see the entire thing normal person says you know everybody is calling president trump a racist but not really seeing it and then the trump haters says whole you don't see it you don't see it is pretty obvious for example explain to be to me why the kkk
supports president trump go yeah let's see what you can do with that all might drop what do you got when he got the kkk support your president explain that away ms thirteen supports the democrats there is a spy somewhere i don't know what to do now alright so that's how it works so you're quick answer to why do the racists support president trump is say reason ms thirteen supports democrats for their own reasons now
thirteen doesn't vote or at least most of them don't i can't say they although vote but of them don't vote however it is free it is fair to say that the that the ms thirteen would prefer democrats in power because they might go softer on then the republicans so they have their own reason has nothing to do with healthcare the racist they have their own reasons and it turns out that when somebody votes for you you did not acquire their opinions because they voted for you doesn't work that way um now so anyway spygate is getting fun let me give you a little context on this thing we call spicate now we're still in the allegation stage which is to say there are
missions and allegations that there with this a loose federation of like minded people or possibly organized who did not want president trump to get elected and did not want him to stay in office if they could do anything about it but that's the allegation now we may never know the full truth of whatever is going on in the world here but let me give you two two ways to look at that allegation one is that these weasels in the deep state worker only for their own job in their own well being and they colluded to do something that was very selfish for them to keep power to keep their jobs and and that's what they were doing they were just it was just a selfish internal coup kind of thing just for their own benefit
possible here's another interpretation for the same set of facts this would be compatible with everything i've been saying it goes like this the manipulators on the democratic side primarily in the clinton campaign at least in twenty sixteen and before and their best influence especially whoever came up with the idea of calling everything trump did dark and racist and homophobic and xenophobic and every other phobic that they had whoever came up with the the campaign idea of branding trump as the monster of all monsters they didn't just convince themselves they convinced
after country half of the country was convinced that a president trump was a uh a risk to the survival of the species you know it was yeah yeah chill the i believe he has now admitted he was an advisor for the clinton campaign and so i think we have that as fact down in my book win bigly i speculated that he was based on what i thought was a fingerprint for his work and it has now been revealed that he did consult although we don't know at what level not as much as prior campaigns apparently and what happened was you have got all these people in the government
not only are afraid of losing their jobs but they're afraid for the whole country there were there the worried that this monster will will destroy the world and what do you do what do you do if you're a patriot you love your country and you see a gigantic jr let's say you're in the spy business you know you're the intelligence business what do you do when you see a what you believe is a mortal danger to your country yeah you might act so i'm not going to defend anybody who allegedly did anything to subvert the will of the people in there
legal election for donald trump but we should not think so simply as to say either just trying to keep their jobs and keep power they might have been trying to save the country they just were fooled by the media and by the influencers on clinton's team do you think that they were doing gods work it's entirely possible and by the way let me put odds on this what are the chances the half country was convinced of this reality the reality that the trump would destroy the economy lose every war started started nuclear war the chances that half of the country was convinced this was a true version of reality and yet all of the intelligence agencies somehow were immune they weren't immune
nobody is immune from persuasion sometimes people say well if you learn about persuasion then you're you know once you know how it works then your your immune from right it doesn't affect you nope doesn't way you know all the weirdness in the world doesn't protect you from good persuasion these were very smart qualified people who know what persuasion is they know how to do it they know what what they say they know it when it's happening and they are still not immune not even a but if you so if you lived your life over on the echo chamber of the left for the last several years you would not even know that there was a reasonable argument on the pro trump side you would not even be aware that there was anybody like me saying
i know you're reading this wrong this is just a style you have good things are going to happen that story didn't even exist on the left so here's an interesting question suppose some day the people who have been alleged to be in on this spike anything if it turned out to be true and i'm not completing it is by the way so where i'm at is that the russian in the russia collusion story and the spike new story are very similar meaning that they seem very convincing to the people who were inclined to believe it now i am inclined to believe it meeting that even though i don't join a team per se i am so associated with the pro trump side of things the i would not be able to tell
an illusion from reality if if favored the opinion i already held all right so you have to know this about yourself i'm saying it about myself right now you should learn to say this about yourself it's helpful i would not know if russia gay it was real or false and i would not know if spygate was real or false it doesn't matter how much information i guess which is the freaky park i am i am i am so prior to believe my side that i would not be able to recognize information disproved and somebody says and yet scott will continue with the spiky thing yes i'm kidding continuing with it with that frame which is that whether it's true or not you can't tell
but it is in the news and that makes it legitimate to talk about so don't don't get caught with your pants down if it turns out that this whole spygate thing is nothing don't don't act like you never heard that possibility likewise for the people who were probably not watching this people on the left if it turns out that there's no such thing as russia collusion which looks like the way it's going don't be surprised because this is the things that look like they're true just often or not all right so keep an open mind about all this stuff that said if we imagine that spike it was real and let's say people people got brought up on charges some day would it be a legitimate does
since to say that you had been brainwashed by top cognitive scientists who now had a brain in my very limited understanding of the law and legal history i don't know the two only been ever been a successful defense there says i was brainwashed the what happened with patty hearst i can't remember if she got convicted or did anybody i get off on a brain washing charge i don't know that's ever happened right but today we have even patty hearst went to jail so the problem is that you probably can't use that defense because everybody would use it
you know it once it worked you would just say well i'm going to use that one i'm going to say i was brainwashed by my cozen you know my there are brain washed maine the gang brain wash me i didn't mean to kill that person i was just brain washed so you can't really use that but what's interesting is this case you have any professional cognitive people who know how to brain wash it's their science it's their specialty and you can see but they are the experts in brain washing you can see the result of the work you can see the actual brain washing you know advertised the the way the campaign was campaign was organized in terms of their message etc and then you can see the result you can see that the people were in fact brainwashed
it probably will never be a legal defense because you can't allow that 'cause then everybody would say it but it's probably true might be true alright let's talk about iran quickly so i saw little article that iran is considering and internal law that would prevent them from funding terrorism meeting it's not that simple it's it would prevent them from doing things that would result in terrorism getting money i guess they don't want to do that because some of the groups that they support that they don't call terrorists might be pulled into that definition but the fact that they're even considering that is interesting because that's what the president
cause them to do member i told you it gives a better explanation of the presidents negotiating style he goes into a situation where there's north korea or the middle east and the first thing he does is he shakes the box and then the thing landon new places and that's either good for him or he shakes the box again and then he looks where everything lands he looks at again and if that's not good for him he shakes the box again once the box lands with everything that's good for him then he stopped shaking the box and there's nobody else who's a box shaker is the only box shaker in the argument he can shake the box other people can't quite do it the same way so he has this superpower simply shaking the box and moving the variables around until they favor him kind of works every time you just have to shake until you get the right you get the right outcome
now what he did was cancelled the iran deal i shook the box and now everybody thinking in a little more expensive way the variables in play then he increased it to let's talk about a treaty not just a deal and then let's talk about the whole area let's talk about the people you're funding let's make let's add lots of variables in this thing shaped box again right now only shakes the box there's all kinds of stuff in there they are if one of those shakes giving him a good situation a good if you shake long enough you know not going to get it on the first shake of the second shake but if you keep shaking things are going to line up your way now uh in my prior periscope i took you down the reasoning trail they said when you ask yourself what's the problem in the middle east like what's the problem you get all kinds of different
it's like well this group was humiliated these people thing god given land there's a fairness question there's a poverty question there's no maybe too many emails are a cultural problem and i've taught you then when you have that many different explanations for a thing none of them are true it's more like the others cognitive dissonance and that everybody is inventing their own explanation for it everybody's confused about something and they're building a movie to try to explain it and that's why you get all these different movies 'cause everybody is trying to solve for the same confusion and here's the confusion and by the way this is not how
who started in the middle east so there may have been legitimate not may have been there were legitimate complaints as some point for example if you got kicked off of your land when israel was formed well that's a pretty legitimate complaint but talking mostly about second generation people who have had to build their own movie about what the problem is because they were born not in israel they've heard things they're trying to explain the world and here's here's what i think is the trigger and this is all preliminary subject to better thinking in the future it seems to me that the trigger for cognitive dissidence over there is that people believe that their god will do the right thing help them win help them prevail and yet for seventy years since the founding of israel there god
has apparently let them down hard so how do you explain your primary belief of the world is that you've got the right god gods on your side if you pray and things you get a good result and then for seven two years in a row just the jews are getting a good result and you know
do you they have the wrong god how do you explain that well that's cognitive dissonance and that that causes all these different movies to appear now if everybody has a different idea of what the problem is some people are saying i q i don't think that's a problem but you know there are lots of variables going on there you need a solution the salsa for the cognitive dissonance you don't need a solution the souls each of these individual movies because that would be impossible right it is just too big a task everybody has a different movie in your head but if you can solve the unlimited dissonance in theory everybody's movie would disappear how do you do that i've suggested and this is more food for thought i don't know that this is a good
you are a bad idea i'm going to put it out as an example of this way of thinking right so don't take this too seriously this is all pretty limitary thinking my suggestion is that we redefine the battlefield um it does appear that the physical war for israel doesn't seem like you could win that it doesn't seem that there's you know in twenty eighteen in a non it doesn't seem like there's a way that you could you could defeat israel without without your own people being destroyed uh so instead he changed the battlefield to the to the realm of ideas and i think we could invite all
the people in the middle east to join the internet to enjoying the war of ideas and get off the get off of the physical play because they're the complaint tends to be in sort of this this god religious level and let's take that to wear those things should be fought which is the internet so i think we should the server just as a mental experiment let's let's say the say there was a middle east peace plan and look like this we're gonna give everybody in the middle east the internet we'll make sure everybody has access to the internet and we want to take the war to the war of ideas yeah if if your idea of god is a good one
let's give you all the tools that you need to spread your idea of your god will be doing the same everybody has their own ideas of how things should be and just fight it out on the internet and and solve the little minor border skirmishes you know what let's not fight it only in the battle field of people and bodies and you know and money and roads and water let's just all that stuff and take the take the battle of the level taking up to where it belongs take it up to you to where god would prefer it if you were god would you want the people to kill each other in your name would you want them to talk about it in your name which would you prefer so here would be here's how you reframe these things i'm not saying that anything like this will ever happen
but imagine if we just said look we need some big comprehensive solution for all this middle east stuff let's stop doing the tuesday things fight a war here fight a war there threaten this person let's see if we can get a comprehensive agreement and let's agree to take the battle from the field up to the battle of ideas to be more in keeping with god's preference because there's no one who believes the god wants bodies to be destroyed you know if god if god created our bodies he probably doesn't want some of those bodies to destroy the other if you don't need to you know there may be reasons that you need to but why would god want that i have somebody says that guess i'll let does want that i don't believe so and i believe i believe that there is there is released
number of muslims and idea that they want to spread their beliefs to as many places as possible the internet is how you do that the battlefield is no longer in a way that it works because it's too easy it's too easy to arm rebels or it's too easy to arm the resistance so you can't really conquer places physically anymore the way you used to be able to all right don't they have the internet yeah of course but probably not as extensively as they could have so making sure that everybody has the internet has more to do with how you frame the problem than it does to get more people on the internet
you need an islamic scholar on your periscope no so here let me tell you something that will make everybody angry it's it's generally consider a fact that the more you know about these situations the more likely you'll have something smart to say about how to fix it when you say that that's a a general true that the the more you know about the middle east the more you know about islam the more you know about israel
the more you know the better off you're going to be coming up with something smart not true it's not true unless the problem is knowledge knowledge is not the problem here the problem is there's a whole bunch of people who have a different opinion of the problem and when that happens you don't need to know the details of what their individual opinions are because the real problem is cognitive distance and if that's the real problem then you look next for the trigger and the trigger is obvious seventy years of the god that you know is powerful and on your side has been you for seventy years how can this possibly be right so you have to invent a reason you the the these are bad the americans are bad whatever their reason is and then you've got to fight against it 'cause you can't change your mind so
if you could read remove the cause of cognitive dissonance way to do that is to say look it is telling you as clearly as possible to move the battlefield god has proven to you that the battlefield of physical bodies standing on sand shooting at each other doesn't win and god does not have any prohibition against you improving your tools the way that you get to your godly end state he doesn't care which tool use whether it's a sword a gun over the internet if you believe in god and you believe god wants you to spread his word you should believe he wants you to do it in the best way that the best way it's possible and that's the internet we know that violence at this point has a limited use and it's certainly not going to get rid of
so that's what i would do i would redefine the problem as a problem of religion take it up to a higher level try to address people's physical needs in more of a generous way and just except that the but the battle is infinite but we'll take it up to the internet where the war of ideas belongs no college isn't the problem said person without knowledge well keep in mind for those of you who believe that superior knowledge will get you will get you to a solution if that were true are there not plenty of people with superior knowledge and have they gotten us to anything that looks like even
close to a solution so if you believe this superior knowledge can get you to a solution on the middle east you have to ask yourself why it hasn't worked yet if superior knowledge could tell you who is likely to be the president of the united states can you explain why i was right and all the people with superior knowledge were if superior knowledge tells you what's happening with n korea and what to do about it why was i the only one who is describing a year ago exactly white where we would be right now is it because of my vast experience with north korea now is it because of my vast experience in political matters now when i became a famous cartoonist as a because i had great knowledge of how to become a cartoonist no i didn't even know how cartoons maker
because when i started being the cartoonist when president trump wanted to be a reality tv star with no experience did it matter that he did not know as much as reality tv stars know when president trump became president did it matter that he didn't know as much about the economy as economists no academy is doing great when he started fighting isis did it matter that he did not know as much as the experts on isas no didn't matter at all well when we started dealing with it is a matter that president trump was an expert on all things north korea no didn't matter at all so check your assumptions it is true that you know you you have to have some mental in the nimble this it is true that you have to know
something but if you believe that the higher you go in the knowledge rankings more likely you'll come up with a solution you don't really understand anything about how the world is really wired right the person who comes up with a solution is probably going to be the one who just moves the right variable whether it was intentional or not remember i explained president trump's method of shaking the box until one of those shakes gives you something that lines up favorably how much expertise do you need to shake a box right the methods that president trump uses don't
choir deep understanding of a topic i know you hate that because you've got all your entire life you've been taught that the more you know the better you better off you're going to be and in general that's true in general the more you know the better off you are that's certainly
in general but i just gave you a six or so easy examples of really big important topics where the person who solves them doesn't have much knowledge when steve jobs decided to build a computer what did he know about building computers nothing when steve jobs said hey you know i think maybe it will move into smartphones or whatever they call them before they were invented do you think it was because steve jobs knew all about telecommunications nope nope he knew about persuasion so
steve wozniak yeah he knew about chips but he didn't know about marketing you didn't know about a lot of things i'm yeah what do the line must know about rockets well least at least he'll have musk is an engineer so in that specific case you know he you launched lawn musk's superior knowledge probably does help him but it's not enough um you know his his understanding of persuasion and how the world works is far more important than his engineering knowledge in my opinion way more experts get results so there's somebody still resisting my idea that in some cases have to have the superior knowledge to have the better solution and i will agree with you that there are many cases in the small world where if you
a legal problem it's better to listen to the lawyer there are cases where if you have a medical problem has probably better to listen to the the doctors i can tell you in my case that if i'd listen to the doctors i would not have recovered my ability to speak because the doctor said it was curable but i thought it probably wasn't who knew more about this problem you know some of you know i had a i couldn't speak i had a voice problem for about three and a half years
and it was considered incurable and when i would talk to doctor after doctor who had heard of it after finding people actually heard it they said there's nothing you can do about it this is just how it's going to be but i knowing far less than the doctors decided i didn't want that answer and so i went and got cured there are probably fifty thousand people in this country who have that same problem and they don't get it cured why they believe the expert there's some expert that told them there's nothing they can do because even now people don't necessarily know there's an operation that can fix it it's not well publicized
so there are many many situations in which the people who know the most are not the most useful for solving it i think the middle east would be the classic example of that in fact i would not expect the person who knew the most to be the best choice for fixing it might be you know i'm not going to say the expertise is bad but it tends to take you down a fact based trail whereas the solution in the middle east is not going to be a fact based solution if there's a solution in the middle east it will be a psychology solution
the recognizes what is the cause of the the cognitive dissonance and addresses the cost and that person will need to know she ate from a from a seventy it just will make african better difference in theory in theory i'm not saying it will be sold i'm not i'm not saying that expertise is bad i'm just saying it tends to not solve a lot of problems because of expertise could solve the middle east there's plenty of it around we wouldn't solve that pretty well by now i think the experts end up getting two factor focused when the problem is not fax how about these latest oppressors some of the
well that sounds like a slightly loaded question if you could ask that question in a different way i might be able to answer it uh my voice problem was solved by the best voice expert it was let me tell you how the best voice expert developed the surgery for solving my problem 'cause i got to talk to him about it when i could talk and i said how did you know that you could fix a brain problem which is what people thought everybody has and that's still the theory is that my inability to talk was a misfire in my brain he solved maine by rewiring some some nerve
in my neck that we're not the problem how did this expert no they could solve a brain problem and all the everybody agrees it's a great problem everybody who studies us how did he know he could fix that by working on something completely unrelated i asked him what is the logic connection between those two things do you know what the answer was doesn't know doesn't he he actually described it as inspired gas none of those are my words but it was basically you know he said you know it's just the
some of everything i knew and it was just sort of an intuition they get off her friends and but he got there not because the fax he didn't get to the answer biological path so nobody's dot com all right uhm i believe i had one other topic i was going to talk about i think i covered a mall uh that's how i write code somebody says you write code by instinct i guess you're saying intuition starbucks yeah let's talk about starbucks so big story where starbucks in trouble for one starbucks store as some african american folks who are not
purchasing anything i don't know there's something about them using the bathroom or something and so starbucks being an progressive condom company they huddled and they decided that they would allow anybody to use their bathrooms whether they were customers or not now it's a really interesting play from the perspective of starbucks here's what i would expect to happen would expect that in terms of reputation and brand that's pretty good your this very much on brand the other the not be nice to everybody kind of brand and i and i think that it may be a really smart corporate move is it it it really puts some in a different class from everybody else who just talks about most of the world whereas there actually taken a big hit to be nice to the world
so on a branding level i would say a plus so what what the corporate executives did yet and remember i'm the guy who makes fun of corporate decisions like i literally do that for a living i make fun of dumb corporate decisions this one looks very smart now what we imagine will happen what i imagine will happen is that in some number of starbucks those those stores will become unusable because the word will get around and the homeless and the mostly the almost will just camp out and use the bathrooms as much as they want in the old filter
vantage of that their kindness so what we should see is that the starbucks that are in those areas that might attract people who are homeless they should probably be close to worth less in a in a short amount of time in other words the the customers who are most likely to have the money and want to buy a starbucks of the people who least want to be hanging out with the homeless is probably not a lot a whole lot of cross over there so i respect store by the starbucks will lose yeah often a building at least and perhaps you know three percent other stores maybe less but the the benefits to their brand is breeze schedule now where that might lead let me just give you some speculation there might be some store asians where they know there are a lot of homeless people
in the long run they may build the store so it's got an internal i'm just speculating here imagine in the long run this starbucks builds a store in a place where they know homeless can get to it and they say ok we know this place will be filled with homeless unless right next to starbucks we build a public bathroom problem solved right you don't have to come in to starbucks to use the bathroom it's actually it's the second or starbucks is here and then they just put another door right next to it public bathroom and they you know just use our corporate resources to keep it clean them whatever they need to do so you have a bathroom in the store for customers yet you have a bathroom starbucks builds now if you if you already like starbucks how much more would you like them for building a separate bathroom for the homeless that wasn't there before
i mean you would go from like appreciating starbucks maybe as a corporate level maybe further further profitability oh there are lots of reasons to admire starbucks very successful company made a lot of good decisions over the years but if they go from we will even risk losing a store in a bad area to look if we can build a new store and just put a public bathroom right next to it it's expensive but we could do it then i don't know if that will happen
there's a direction ago so i'd expect some starbucks to be impacted and the man almost immortal away in some starbucks will be fine because there weren't many homeless people around there anyway all right the summer saying they'll build stores without bathrooms maybe but i don't see him going that way i see more bathrooms not fewer all right that's enough for today i'm gonna go back and do some work popular
Transcript generated on 2019-11-14.