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Episode 784 Scott Adams: #Loserthink From Artists, Iranian Attitudes, North Korea, Lots More

2020-01-11 | 🔗

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a

Content:

  • Iran takes full responsibility for downing the civilian aircraft
    • The way the tragedy happened is interesting
  • Would you accept a doubling of your income…
    • IF it quadruples the income of billionaires?
  • The Theory of Infinite Variety framework
    • Reject the concept of pride in your group
  • NK Denuclearization is only one small policy change away
  • Fareed Zakaria’s TDS and belief President Trump is “impulsive”
  • Virginia Heffernan, LA Times…Trump followers are a cult?
  • White House working on list of additional banned countries
  • Why shouldn’t other countries pay for safety we provide?
    • Monetizing the safety and security we provide for countries

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The post Episode 784 Scott Adams: #Loserthink From Artists, Iranian Attitudes, North Korea, Lots More appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
On some fun fun. Companies sometime Vampa everybody go on in school, see it's time for coffee was got Adams. You can hear my printer busily printing out my notes, It will be done in a moment, but until then I must enjoy the railroad You came here, which is the simultaneous up yeah. That's why and you don't need much to enjoy the simultaneous, deploying the Mugger glance attack or tell us who style a Kantian, jogger flask. A vessel of any kind fill it with liquid. Have you heard I like coffee, and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure
the dopamine the day the thing that makes everything better the simultaneous up go. The skills make gonna grab. My notes, don't go anywhere, We can make dubiously I was just over by the printer. Don't panic, aright legalised have to talk about today. Today is a star star of the day is represent. Doug Collins, who yesterday I and pre Pereira lots of people mark for saying the Democrats are in love with terrorists and today actually seriously. Representative Collins, tweeted. Let me clear. I do not believe Democrats were in love with terrorists.
I apologise for what I said earlier: forty eight hour rule for apologies has been accepted. As I told you before you will. To love the following standard for joy. Judging your fellow humans The old ways to do it is judging them by their mistakes, bad way to judge me, because we all make mistakes good way to judge people. It is by other responding to their mistakes, represent made a mistake, responded to it quickly? Clearly, apologized ban? That's how you do it start of the week Collins, not because of the mistake, because of the way you handled it perfectly done. Nice play
there's something maybe interesting happening, that people can smell before they see it involving the uranium situation and, as has to do with the way there dealing with the news which no doubt They did not want to admit which is apparently they are not peril. They are responsible, for a firing. The missile that took down the Ukraine Airlines killing many of their own citizens and sun and some others as well so I ran has now taken full responsibility, and people are wondering if that suggests, that there are more flexible, meaning that it seems like the sword of
response she might give. If you're thinking you now, we need to rejoin the international community. Anybody else in this situation would admit that risk possibility unjust and and around and that now I think they also had no real choice because the evidence Was I mean it was just obvious to people even before the investigation right anyone who really thought that anything else was going another them around shouted down accidentally. I think we'll do that. So in building something that everybody knows. Maybe not the biggest step in joining The international community, but it's not nothing, I release releases.
Step in the right direction. But there is something very interesting about the way it happened. So it turns out that. It turns out that the others, the I guess asleep iranian Guard, What do they call themselves? Commander of IRAN's Islamic grew Revolutionary Guard Corps. So he said that he had requested all commercial flights and ran be grounded until tensions with the. U S cooled off now. Who used to be the boss of IRAN's Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Well, my understanding is that it was all a money right
He was the boss ass. He was the boss of all the military and and intelligence forces. So this commander of IRAN's Islamic Revolution, a guard talk to another branch of the armed forces who were Thrice the ground plan, so I guess he read. The the IRAN's Islamic Revolutionary Guard did not have the authority to ground the planes, but they asked for the place to be grounded by another form of the military and the other forces military didn't do it We don't know why, but they didn't do it. Let me ask you this if Solomon I had done alive, who was the boss of both groups? He was a boy of the military who is the boss of Ranch National, IRAN's Islam Islamic,
We regard. If solemnly what had been still alive, do you think those flights would abandon the air? I don't think so. I M, and by the way I think I'll be the first person to tell you but by later today, you my heard on the news. If you know the two members of the military who used to both reports, the same guy can't get their messages straight. And one of them is asking for something completely, visible in the other ones, not doing it This suggests that, missing Solomon aid might be a bigger problem than we thought there might be a bigger problem internally. You know we always. We always imagined the unintended consequences, It happened to our own side while there's a print
big unintended consequence that might be happening internally, which is jockeying for power and finger, pointing and probably a lot of scrambling to figure out who is in charge. Really in charge in others, whose who's in charge on paper and the nurse who is really in charge. So I got a feeling there. Some internal fusion within ran that may not be getting better. Getting better anytime got that. It has been a few days now and we have not seen so far a correct me if I'm wrong, Any of IRAN's proxies attacking any of our assets. Now the reporting is that IRAN actually told his proxies to step down to stand down, and I think, maybe that's true love to hear time will tell
But I would like to offer this new thought: there's something about tragedy, the focus as you like, other things. Don't. We sought. In our country we saw with nine eleven right nine eleven for good or for bad focused. This country, like few things, can focus your Pearl harbor focus this country, like few things, can focus so there's something about tragedy. The does Cause a country to come together and focus, and I would argue that IRAN's frame just changed. And what I, what I mean by frame, is the way we with the way we look at the situation framing, we put on the situation, changed. Here's a change, I think, to treat the the change went from ran versus the United States. That was the old
were fighting you you're fighting us were were we're at each other, but this tragedy accidentally changed the frame and I would describe this way around, is only hurting itself. If you're in IRAN does I feel, like whatever your government has been doing in terms of what's happening with the United States, etc. Doesn't feel like you're only hurrying yourself now does. The US lost exactly zero people. Iran shot down a flight full of that a lot of its own people on it and a lot of people from Canada and other countries and. It feels like what happened with the Iranian will say. Psychology changed from
we're we're having a competition with you, you bring the United States too. I think everything we do just hurt us Everything we do hurts our economy area we do hers our reputation. Everything We do causes lives, but the rainy lives why everything we do is just bad for us. So that's one of those subtle changes that you don't see in the news, but it might make a big difference over time Apparently the news is coming out that the Eu S unsuccessfully targeted another rainy and military official who had something to do with funding, which is probably a strong person to target, because if you take out the person who is in charge of all the financing for the bad activities they quite a blow, but apparently the that operation did not work that we did not take him out. But what message does s end
it's really a different message. If you took if you tried to go after two, maybe there were more they it will find their later. There were more than two, but you decapitation strike looks a little different if it's too people than ever does one, even if one of them didn't work. Sorry, my cat is ruining my video here. You are not allowed to be a camera I'll try to control, or so it does have its different set different message. If there were two in two targets, because that makes me feel like nobody safe if you target one person, you can imagine in your mind. Ok, there was something very special about that. One person. So they're down once I've got that one person, but as soon as you here was to people,
you say to yourself apparently, is not limited and that's a really different psychological message. Which has now is not really about that one person and by the way is still alive. So you know don't go to the airport. Here's what else we Geier. My catches really need some attention. Right now I've got I've gotta pull up on Twitter. They got a very interesting. The come sorry, she did. You see her tail. If you want What that very thing is that keeps surrounding my neck, that's my cat still. So I bought a survey up, and I asked this question. I political question and twitter and
Cole. I said if a wizard offered to double your income, you can all play along if a wizard offered to double your income and the only catch is that it would quadruple the income of the super rich. Would you accept put that question to you and you can answer it in the before I tell you before. I tell you the actual answer. This scandal just go crazy on me. I have to tell you that last night she got out of the house she's at she's, an indoor cat, but she got out last night, so she was missing in action on a cold night and when I, when she finally returned
hours later, she was very glad to be in a warm house so arranged. So what do you say? I'm sale of watching your answers? Yes, yes, yes! No! Yes! Yes! Yes! Yes of course. Yes, let me jump ahead. The answer the answer is yes. Yes, if somebody offers the double your income eve, slave quadruple, the income of strangers, who are the super rich? Remember I call them the I referred to them as the super rich now, supernaturalists called our billionaires Now there are people who thought when this is a trick. We say in the common solutions, one about inflation. What about inflation? now. What is it? I've told you when I talk about my book over here losers. Think I told you
It really helps understand the world if you know at least little bit about economics. Some, teach you a little bit about economics to help. You understand your world. If all of the billion errors in the world quadrupled their income what would happen if only the billionaires? What would happen to the rest of us if the billionaires or quadruple their income? Will you don't have to wonder because happens, I almost all of the billionaires has have quadrupled their income during your lifetime was different. Let me bring this down to down to the weeds for a moment, if you're worried about inflation. Consider this, how many potatoes does a billion air Eve for dinner? How many well, on average,
a billion error, my one potato for dinner, because that's all it needs is now so long red is too potatoes. So once you quadruple, the income of the billionaire, how many additional potatoes does he by no edition, potatoes, he was already eating one potato a night and that's all he needed you didn't need any extra potatoes. So when you go to the store, did your potato cost go up? It did not potato also the same because demand is exactly the same one billion there is one potato She was so you ve got the car dealership. You buy. You were totally Toyota press. Did the cost of your prayers go up because the billion quadrupled therein? no, because zero billionaires bought apprentice
Maybe some billionaire buys and it will well actually a billionaire is gonna by the same amount oppresses if that's the right. A plural for Pre US might be a pre. I they by many pre I, but then there would be exactly the same number of of low in cars as they bought me. Or which is zero. So when you got a shot for your low end Carl's, I say low end as opposed to listen luxury automobile. Low and being aircars that you and I drive. What about my ex wife? That's that's more of our high in car, how many extra high end ex fives are purchased because a billion years quadruple drinker, none, not not one extra car, even at the young.
Expensive level were purchased because they already had a car. Every billionaire have exactly the cars they wanted. No more! No less than all the cars So those of you worrying about inflation. You had not thought this through. If the only people who have more money other super rich, they not by anything extra because they already had all the money they needed for everything. It there's no point being super rich if you can't buy yourself a yacht, so, yes, The cost of luxury yachts might go up factors the chancellor, the car, of homes? They cost more than twenty five million dollars. My go up. Will that affect you? Where will you feel that in your inflation does your cause more because
a billion, what fifty million dollar house instead of twenty five million dollars? No so that's a little example and by the way, ten percent of the people who raised the question? Would they accept a doubling of their income in return for their super rich, getting a jubilant? Ten percent son. Now now if ten percent of the world will say no to doubling their income is maybe because either you suspected the track or baby you're, not not good at Yale. The economic analysis is Basel. Do you have a minute, unlike and racism and sexism If you have a minute, I was thinking the other day Scott. How can I end racism in this country as well as sexes?
solution, any call of infinite variety discrimination humans. How can I do this and I would like to offer you the following solution. I call the theory of infinite variety of humans and just named it hadn't, really call it anything until just a moment. So here's the theory is Frame for understanding are a reality. Our current frame says you got your men, you got you haven't. You got your gaze, you got here, you're transmitters, you got here. You got your black. She got you wait. You got here asian she got you're Hispanics does the current model, Is that the categories and you re in one or more of the categories? Why have
when you imagine a world in which there are categories, and you also imagine that you can sort people into the categories up your Europe woman you're. Also hispanic. Ok, you go into the hispanic category. That's who you are what happens when you see the world that way well weapons as you river. Teams because assumes you know what team your argued, but always on Monday, the older white Guy team in America. Ok, there must be mighty. What is the automatic biological reaction to being other team? You can turn this off. It makes you think that the other team needs Defeat it needs to be controlled, but you want your team to win because it your team. Of thinking involved, is just like. Well, I'm on a I wanted to win, So here is the new framework, the infinite. Variety of humans framework,
this by the way has been my my own until model of forever, which is one of the reasons that sort of classic discrimination, racism, prejudice, etc. Confuses me here's what confuses me. Have you ever seen in the same way, supremacist or racist say that way. People are awesome, because white people invented a lot and built a lot common thing. Right, hey, wait, wait people did a bunch of good stuff. We invented a lot of inventions and accomplished and stuff? Do you know what's wrong with that? The races didn't do shit. The racist are different people. You can't take credit for strangers. Just me, as they have something in common with your dna? That's not a thing, but yet we all do it
what one one of the outside one of the most positive sounding, but actually negative things. You say you have pride in your group. Are you proud to be whatever fill in black? you are proud to be an albanian. You are proud to be black. You are proud to be a woman. You are proud to be asian American. Whatever your that is the worst thing you could ever say. If you want to make the world a better place, do not take pride in the accomplishment of dangers strangers, don't know you when, when Edison invented the light bulb, I dont get credit because I'm white, it doesn't work that way where we are all infinitely different people with different capabilities. The fact that some people did some,
Some impressive things who are not me if they're not me: how do I take credit for that? Just because I saw a look like some of them somehow doesn't work that way here. The better frame. Everybody is infinitely different. What do I care about? Your sex life? You're, just like me and you're, just like everybody here, yours is Completely different and everybody else's now you wanted the things you think about it. Attorney learned things you care about is probably changed over time. You we're all infinitely different I am so different from people who were Also mail and all unless a white male is in my case. That's my category. I've been forced to be an I'm. Not like you, you, let's be honest, would you be listening to this paragraph?
If the things I said, where the same things, you were already thinking now, the entire the entire reason that any white male is watching me. Talk is because the things that I say not be the things you are already thinking. That's all point: once you leave the frame of people being in their little categories in society, a society for us, and you say what about we're all infinitely different you have Reject how similar you are your own category to get to the next level. Yet, if you imagine this is like a video game you trying to get to the next level. You have to reject pride in your group. Pride in your group,
just stupid. Pride in your group is counterproductive because it forces you to be a new group, and then you take credit for strangers right do do all black people get credit because Obama was president. Now do all white people get credit because you, George Washington, was a great general. Now I don't get a credit for that, I'm not George wash it. That is a stranger. Stop taking credit for strangers and stop thinking that enables us to be in your box? So one of the reasons that my regular listeners now that I've been quite defensive of everything, algae beauty. Q is not because I think that a gay people should have equal rights, but of course I do it's not because I think anybody use transgender, etc should have equal opportunities.
Right, but I do it the reason that I'm supportive is cause. I like the frame that we're just all different ya out. If you, any of the letters and algae beauty, Q just say I'll, take the owl all the people were lesbians, they're, all different Minette Simum, coincidentally, while things in common but they're, not the important things there just infinitely different, so that frame more powerful than you think it is it will sink in older. I was Sir read between the lines what the chairman Kim North Korea, how he responded, or at least the country responded. North Korea responded to. I guess President Trump sent Chairman King
A nice birthday card, and apparently german came, has has acknowledged that he feels he has a good feeling about President Trump, but used is quite angry about the lack of progress. So we think so these wasted eighteen months, but I want yeah there's always a translation problem, but look at the the wording that Kim used and see. If we can read between the lines Kim said his country will quote never de nuclear arise. If they'll never do something. If between the lights they are willing to do that thing. So
Can you clear eyes, you never say I'll. Never do it unless you do this, unless you you're open to the possibility, so Kim is actually signaled by his choice of language that he's open to the possibility, You know that because I dont know if anybody's ever said that before that is open to the possibility, I think all the smart people and said well, there's no way to get rid of his nukes. Boat, but why would he word it this way? He said his country will never do nuclear eyes if the? U S does not retreat. Ok, so is what's coming something impossible. What what follows the? If, if what follows the, if is something impossible, then ok, that's not real he's. Just putting an if there followed by something possible occurs
really just wants to keep his nukes Souci was the second part of the sentence. He'll never denuding arise. If the? U S, does what quote retreat from its quote: hostile policy toward Pyongyang, retreat from its high style policy? That's all that feels like the easiest thing we could ever do so. Instead of so instead of saying there is an impossible thing we have to accomplish in order phrasing to get done Kim said exactly the opposite of that it was the smallest problem that we have to solve. Do you not? The smallest problem to solve, for the United States is to not have a warlike position against somebody. We don't have one have a war with and they don't want to have a word with us. There is not
easier than not attacking somebody. You don't want to attack and doesn't want to attack you and doesn't want to be attacked. Kim has reduced this to the simplest possible formula that we have to show that our intentions are different, What he didn't say? We will not talk to you until you remove your military forces from South Korea. I mean criticised that. I think you said something in that range before about the military assets in South Korea, but he didn't say that he didn't say you didn't even say: remove your military assets. He said change your policy. What happens if President Trump said you know we're stalled. Others North Korea were stalled. So I think the first step will be
to have a congressional act in which we, the Congress, gets involved to say that the war is over. I think there's gotta be the next step now could be. There were waiting for something in return, but we have to. We probably need to do the magic trick, member the magic trick. The magic trick is when there's an impossible situation, North Korea's good example. They won't do need nuclear eyes until we do something, but we want that to lay didn't right, so you ve got this. Nobody wants to go first, Roma, so if we gave them nothing which would be a declaration that is the end of the korean WAR from our perspective, and we have no intention of hostile intend That would basically be nothing because we could just change our mind tomorrow. Right,
so it wouldn't have any real world practical effect, but it would look like something might it might look? like something very big in return, we would want them to give us something that might sound good, but maybe isn't there much, and I am sure that they can come up with something in that category. So I think we have to get off the dime by offering something that looks like we can argue it has value in return for them saying they got something of value, but just start to change the psychology of it. Because when chemist says, he wants us to change our hostile policy. I feel like that's exactly what it wants and remember. I too
do that. I learned hypnosis class that people say exactly what they want. If you do, if you analyze the actual choice of works and what he wants is, is a policy change he's asking for a policy change that feels doable at right? If you said you get rid of all of your nuclear weapons and we'll get rid of hours, while we're not gonna do that, but we certainly talk different sounds like us was ass before for next up, here's a fun thing for you to do. Let me give us will set up there to people that I would describe as artists, meaning that their professional writers,
one is for red scoria and one is verging on happening whose riding in the Alley Times list the article I saw now I'm a huge fan of four Red Zachary. I've been watching for years. You show on CNN and I was to turn it in leave. I'm going through the channels, the I stop immediately when I see him because my experience has been over years and years watching him, he has the most reasoned, complete smartest, take a lot of stuff, especially international stuff, but he seems to be in also
It seems to me because I'm not a doktor suffering from one of the worst cases of trumped arrangements and Romeo leprosy, and one thinks he says is a trump does not have. A policy has a series of impulses and he asked what is our strategy in IRAN and other things, but was our strategy he's gonna, stop using these impulses and even said that from supporters have a north korean style of enthusiasm? in other words, is looking kind of cruelty and their trump has broken our relationships with our allies in Europe. Here's? What I want to add to the conversation find me, someone who's a business, export. Let's say a ceo of a major company who
also says the Trump has no strategy and he operates on impulse because I googled less to see how many people are saying. Trump is impulsive and if you just Google, that Trump Impulsive, Yo Yo tons of heads- because it's the Democrat talking point, but I look what I was looking for this is he had many people with business. Experience say that now I'm going to subtract. The people are going to subtract the people who are professional critics of the president, so they mark Cubans more ease, sort of crosses the line into. I think he's on the team, so the team players are not to be quite as useful for this, but Sutlers USA. Somebody was on CNBC and they're just see now.
Where business expert my my take on this is that people were experiencing business, do not to say things such as somebody is operating on impulse and they don't have a strategy is not a thing people know, it's not a thing. This is an artist. Take. The artist stake is that you can read minds with strangers. You can see that there's, no thinking, there's just a bunch of pulses. How in the world does forensic area, in my opinion, one of the smartest people in the entire game, and I mean that less seriously smart guy and also knowledgeable so he's a smart and knowledgeable. That's pretty good and he's still saying stuff like you can read, the strangers minded doesn't silly thinking in there. This is jumping from one thing to another. Let me ask you this very
What would you say as the strategy of apple computer? Anybody anybody if strategies are good things, you'd expect our biggest corporations to have one? What is the strategy of Apple computer Now I know you can always the question you say stuff like well: Apple computer is a company that makes computers they make a desktop band, laptop computers and oh, wait. A minute wait, a minute that was the old strategy. Remember they used to be their strategy to be good at making computers, then Steve Jobs said: let's make a music device. What what was the strategy? What's the strategy I'm going to be for going from a computer company to a portable music company. Was our strategy explain that to me
and if I asked you what's apple strategy right now, now the days they become more of a multi product company, you say all: while their strategy is to build high end expensive, high margin equipment, the falls into these categories, but don't you think that is Apple found a new category such as self driving cars or whatever it is? Wouldn't they also do that. So, of course, they went apple does what they can do better than other people, which is apparently they can attract the best engineers. They have good such good engineering that they are capable of building the best high on product.
And the other guy kind of a monopoly, because if you start using any of their products, is just easier to have all of them because they work together seamlessly. So why? What is their strategy while their strategy, obviously, is that when some new opportunity comes up or they were events, change, they change the introduce a product they tried out, it doesn't work, they get rid of. It sounds impulsive. Doesn't because they introduce a product, they try it for a while. The public doesn't like it and then they get rid of it. Where is there strategy shouldn't their strategy, be that they keep selling the product? Nobody wants. Well. That would do good strategy right. No, there's no The has this magical thing called the strategy, every every see wakes up every day and says based on my variables today. What do I do today?
You change now in the world of Trump, things are changing all the time. Find me. A new information. You know the allies are are are unpredictable. They might respond. One way he's looking at social media. You don't know how social media is to respond. Until you see it, you don't know how the frame things until they frame it. Tromp is in a world where everything is changing all the time We wouldn't even makes sense that the strategy, because he would have to change it every ten minutes, because the variables change you don't have one strategy, no matter what the variables are. That's not even the thing It wouldn't make sense to have one strategy, no matter what happens in the world. As soon as something happens, you got to reassess your strategy. Maybe it works, maybe doesn't if it doesn't change it. So here's my large
only the people who do not have experience running as the same managers in a traditional selling. Some of this, I think, for it, has been a he's been added, before Bassorah sullenly writing world journalism world, I think P You have run big businesses, don't say things like where's the strategy. Does it doesn't make sense? It is a nonsense. Statement does mean aim in a world where things changed over time trot, approach of waking up today and saying what do I do today, based on today's variables, including any changes in the way of thinking about things and then here that he makes Lee? it makes the decision based on today's variables. Would you want that to change? Would you want that? To be different beyond that, there are certainly some things about the the examples of Regos.
Is that tramples say I want to get out of the Middle EAST, but then he'll be sending troops in So how does that make sense? He once they get out. Bodies is increasing engagement, to which I say for read. It makes sense because the variables changed It might make sense you want to get out and then something happens. You say dammit I still want to get out, but I gotta get back in to do this thing. To make sure that we don't have a specific danger, because a variable changed its? nonsense, talk from one of the smartest guys in the game, and that is what caused it right
think when you see somebody a smart as for AIDS, a courier say something that doesnt track and all with what anybody with business experience would be saying this because of a lack of exposure to the field, a kind of a kind of shows that there is this just sort of a cat, experience because he thinks saying things like you don't have a strategy actually makes any sense does make any sense for blue experienced people Virginia Halford in writing. In the eye times she's talking about the question whether from supporters are caught, and here is some some parts from Virginia rights. She said, as twenty nineteen drew to close my doubts about Trump ISM as a cult dissolved and I'm not alone,
other people are thinking this so now, she's gonna lists and other people who met you give her some confidence that our opinion that the Trump people are in a cult. So here the credit, all people which she names as being on the same side and therefore supporting her opinion that Trump followers in a cop she goes on. Republican Lord George Conway? What. Is she really gonna use George Conway S example of somebody with clear thinking? Let me can the New Republic lawyer, George Conway reportedly described his wife trumps present
counselor Kelly and Conway? As a member of a cult Jennifer Observer in Virginia Afridun, have you been watching George Conway and all do? Have you seen him tweet Double he tweets, you might want to check out some of his tweets because, if you're finding intellectual cover- because you are on the same side as George Conway- maybe The little stronger people on your team, but she goes up former GEO Be strategist. John Weaver has used the term I don't know who he is, but my guess is at least one guy in the GNP whose never chopper lenders, though so it's George Conway, the least credible person in the world, followed by a guy never heard about, but also at Anthony scared. Reaching
Now there is an objective person, Anthony Scary movie, there's no axe to grind with the guy who fired him. And then there's somebody named Trump's onetime, political scientist, Norman Ornstein, never heard of them. There's a science journalist killed Steve Silberman, never heard of them. There's a pastor, John published, never heard of, and academic journalists. Never hammer whenever what and then she goes anxious as what the cold diagnosis may lack in scholar, little rigour, so she confesses that they called the designation. It lacks some scholarly rigour. How much scholarly rigour does it lack? Oh,
hundred percent yeah. What let these scholarly rigour is sadly a little inadequate, but I may she says it makes up for an explanatory power. Now that's good unless it doesn't predict the future. Do you know what, when somebody says that their theory has explanatory power? What does that mean in this explains the past and in the current do you know what other hypotheses can explain the past almost all of them, and what do I teach you more often than you want to hear you can come up with lots of theories that explain the past. Have you seen climate science climb
Lance has a hundred different or lots of them yell at least a hundred different climate models, which start at the point of already explaining the past one hundred completely different models. They all explain the path that are all different variables. How hard is it to explain the past too easy? it's really easy just ask Hillary Clinton to explain why she lost its easy. It's Russia, sexism, its she didn't go to that everybody is gonna theory for explained. The past. You want impress me predict the future predicted, If you want to impress me with your worldview, tell me what's gonna happen next, because if you can't do that you don't have a worldview, you have cognitive dissonance and you have confirmation by us.
That's what it means when you can explain the past, everybody can do that and I love the the. This is also talking about Transporters so saying that they basically change their personalities from a commitment to liberty, Canary Lieber, libertarianism, family values or simple logic in favour of trump worship, so they have given up their personal opinions. The favor of Trump worship that explains exactly zero people. You probably spend time with Republicans Have you ever met a Republican who gave up their family values pictures of whatever the president it have? You ever met a republican I'll bet there isn't one Republican on the planet earth, whoever game
up their family values, because the president had sex with a porn star, what did did? If you leave your families, because because Trump is personal, life was different. The nearest? How many of you renounced your religion so that you could be more like a trumpet sleep with porn stars stop nobody. Nobody. There are simply people who said Well, we don't like that board, but is not affected me. We do like those other bar. We like the judges. We like the economy like the National the fence, we just don't like this other part, exactly zero Republicans in the whole world have changed their personal, feelings about anything they just Well, I'm looking at the costs and benefits he's got some cause, no doubt about it now he's a pricey president, but we think the benefits
Rather, it is a bigger investment is a risky investment, but we do for these great benefits for the people who can see that they believe that trumpets and called to which I say. I challenge you to name anything that the Democrats are doing. That is less called like then, whatever Republicans going and the answer is, you could make a story that both the either party is occult? I have personally made the case. My excellent book called losers, think available everywhere, the bull parties are drifting into something like a cot, but when I said I'm talking about something specific. When I say
Democrats and Republicans are drifting into something like a cult. What I'm talking about is the silos of information. So, if use, if you start preventing yourself from contact with the other side, that's sign of a cult. If I said you were talking about Democrats and Republicans, and you have to guess which group I'm talking about- why Are those groups is actively and aggressively decreasing contact with the other and making sure that Their members of his group also avoid contact with the other group. Who am I talking about that? Republicans are republicans asking other Republicans to spend less time. We Democrats never heard of it. Never do that not even once are Democrats telling other Democrats to interact less and shun republicans and therefore cut themselves,
off from whatever those words are yeah. This is mostly what they're doing is one the main things is happening in the country. So, if you were to say, I was one of the requirements of being called well, it starts with the unbelieving crazy things, but that applies to both sides right, there's, no one side as the monopoly. Believing crazy stuff, but there is one sided, definitely as a big difference in restricted its own members from having contact with the outside world. I think that's fair to say, and I think even Democrats would agree with that- innovation, obviously these generalizations dope young applied it, the person by definition, I talk about if the software predictions
How many of you predicted, probably most of you, that the the iranian military shut down your grand airline, probably most any right- and here I liked to say you- should make predictions and then see how you did. My prediction was based on incompetence. So if you make a prediction based on incompetence, watch your track record. It is if people are saying? Well, I think it was a clever plan to do acts but there's another explanation that also fits the facts, which is that its incompetence. You should always go with incompetence. Now you see me do it with the Epstein thing, and I said: ok, you can have that much incompetence inside actually not even. Usual, so the incompetence theory so far so far is bearing out.
I predicted that the airlines would that we find out that the Iranian shouted down, because the incompetence hypothesis is just always the likely one. This is always the likely one, so I just keep just stay with it, no matter how tempting it is to go with the confirmation by us to stick with it in its you'll. Be surprised that wasn't right around started out, calling it a big lie, and now they ve completely admitted that they did it and they feel terrible, etc. Here's a question I have to ask you: how much research did the Iranians need to do to learn that there,
fired a missile. Now, if you're another country, you might have to look at the wreckage and see if see. If the blast looks like it was coming from inside out, you know you you can out what's on the Black Box, if you're somebody else, if you're not a ran, you ve got to do the forensics on the plane to find out what happened, but a random have to do that. All around had do is say anybody missing a missile. How in the world did the military? Not? oh, they had fired a missile was there's somebody in the Heavens. The head of the the military that was in charge of that area, the fire the missile. I tell me the general didn't know he fired a missile seriously. The general in charge of that area didn't know in the first sixty seconds course. He knew, of course,
Oh some says it's automated. There might be some automation, but I imagine there's a human element of the final decision, but the point is around new from the first moment and they decided to try to lie about it until their friends we're just so obvious and was there was hers actual video of the misleading the plane. So then they admit it, but seriously did Duran have to wait for the forensics and that's a good question. Trump is trying to make things even more interesting in a provocative way. So the White House is apparently putting together a plan to increase the list of banned countries. The countries that can't come,
the United States, no matter what the of course this has a bad history, because it started out being called a muslim ban because most of the countries originally work. Majority countries. People are worried that the egg, the upcoming additions to the list, which no doubt will be challenged in court again, but the additions people resuming are mostly or all probably mostly muslim majority countries. So representative, Rashid Laban, has said that this straight up racism, to which I say representative,
To labour, do you know anything about is love because, as long as in a race, though one one of the strongest points about Islam Belief is that it doesn't matter what what ratio? That's. Actually one of the strongest points of the religion is that they don't care what race you are. I'm that's. That's like really important. So
if the United States bans Muslims that isn't that a variety of races by definition, as does the strongest part of that, in my opinion, one of the strongest parts is that they do have that their ethic that it doesn't matter what ratio worries after this, this type of thought, you know you unbelief and I ask you- can ever be races to ban people based on their common belief system, for example, and I dont want to make this is not a comparison. So the next thing I'm gonna say, is not comparing it to dislodge, I'm just taking you down a mental experiment, so nothing I say now has anything to do with Islam suppose there was an albanian country, an elbow.
As you know, is over there, and I remember Melbourne Braggin as worded lives, I suppose, the people there had a belief that they were superior people. And that they should kill all people in the United States. I will say that was a common belief in Albania. It has nothing to do with a race. Has nothing to do with religion is not even a religion is just a common preference that they should kill all people who are Americans Should we have a policy that lets the men, because doing otherwise would be discriminatory. Right now, somebody saying sameness of Islam. That's not true! It's not the same, as is low. Because, as long as a big tent with some people have extreme thoughts, just like Christianity, more in the past, for Christianity
but the vast majority don't have anything like that. But imagine if they did, could you so here's the basic question? Is it ever appropriate? to ban people by their common way of thinking in their common preferences for them. Futures I've ever ever allowable, and I would argue that if there were, if you had a thriving Nazi Party in Europe and somebody applied to come to the willow me ask you this. Oh here's a perfect example uneasily fact checking on this and get fact check me. Please you say Germans. Who had to say and affiliation will say a german citizen who belonged to know you couldn't be a german citizen, blocked or Nazi Party prior to be some other
so it will say, there's some other european country where they have an actual Nazi Party, modern Nazi Party and there's a member of the modern Nazi Party who says, I like to emigrate to the United States Would we let him in under current rules, would we allow an active member of a Nazi party to emigrate to the? U S, I don't know the S lap and again, let me let me say this clearly is again: I'm not saying that there is any comparison to that example to Islam. All I'm saying is that they both are about a way of thinking and a belief system. So far,
about the ethnicities of anybody. There, too belief systems. If you believe that the belief system likely had people in it that were dangerous word. Our current constitution allow us to ban them based on belief, independent of any race. Let me ask you this: if someone who is a devout Muslim, who is also born in great Britain was a citizen of Great Britain and they wanted. Who am I to him? the United States. Would the United States treat them was a unfairly because of their religion? Now. It it doesn't matter what ethnicity they are. If there is there, a british citizen. Especially borne in Britain would
would any of our immigration rules disadvantaged Emily answers now? So that's pretty clear that has to do with the system that are coming out of whether or not they can vat citizens, so this is one of those fake arguments in which the critics will try to make it about racism. I don't think there's. No, it's a It's a tough argument to make. That will be more of that. It's also been called xenophobic. So representative, J Appall said that the idea of banning some countries was xenophobic adds. Look it up.
So I thought I saw you know what a man like the xenophobic not liking, people from other places or whatever, but the actual definition is fear of strangers in fear of people from other countries and cultures and stuff, and I thought to myself less actually just what it is. That. Exactly where is the way you wouldn't you wouldn't be contemplating banning some some group unless you have a fear of them, so that exactly. What is I don't know I don't know. Why? That's why? Why would she can so that an attack does if we weren't afraid we wouldn't do it? that's all boy said seems I just a description of what it is
since August is saying different topic that we don't want to pull out of Iraq and less erect pays us back for all the investments we put there now. The first time I heard this I said to myself. Well, that doesn't sound like is slightly possible latin, and then I looked at it in context, which is he saying the same thing with South Korea you should pay us. You saying the same thing to the South EAST. You should pass Al Qaeda liking. The larger picture, the larger picture is that the enormous military that the? U has done keep all of our allies save? There's there's no two ways about it: the United States- state spends an enormous amount which keeps us save, whereas the dual effect of making other countries not have to have a big military.
Wouldn't it be great to be an ally of the United States. You're welcome Canada. It is Canada, safe from attack Canada is about as safe as you can get from attack, because the United States now, of course, either on military, very capable, I'm sure, but nothing in comparison to what the United states us. So the president is, I think, wisely and cleverly trying to monetize the protection services that we offer to other countries I think he is right about that. It's a change of frame, so the old frame was it's just about goodness. The feeding, evil or whatever the old frame was. But now the frame is that it's it's a good in the service that military protection is a product is basically product eyes, the stuff we were doing
Anyway. Now, if we weren't doing it in the first place, I might have some complaints about trying to commodity eyes were turned into a product, our military does. That sounds like the worst. But in the world. But what he's doing you say we're doing this anyway? We're not going to stop doing it and and we're doing something that monumentally beneficial to other people. I think that's exactly the right place to go, and I also doesn t think any other president would have done as it is the sort of radical departure from the way we You still think that he's the only one who could have done this and I think, by the end of his second term, the idea that other militaries or other countries should be directly pay. For the service that we provide in terms of protection. I think that's gonna become standard.
Because there's nothing wrong with it. In other words, it is hard to argue against it. It's just that nobody brought it up before, so Yeah, you certainly don't wanna become a mercenary army, but but we're doing it anyway, let's see if we can get paid. I, like his instinct honour. I like a lot like a lot Let's see what else we are going on here, so here's I think I didn't summarizes as well. The next time you see somebody calling the present impulsive, google them or check their profile at what you find does that they tend to be journalism. Artists, you'd, find me someone who's, not already upon it. You mark Cubans especially case as he's a successful businessperson bodies is also he's in the game. So somebody is not the game
just a business person and they're, not about whose when or lose their just running their business. Trying to stay out of trouble. Find me somebody like that who says that the present decision making is impulsive, and then he has no strategy. I don't think you'll find it. You do. It will be a special case, my cabbages crazy on it today Somebody says Isla Mosque. I'd have to google that, but I doubt well let Lenny. Lenny levied Google ran out. I doubt that you learn mosque, calls the president impulsive. He may have all kinds of other problems. Elon mosque Trump
poles of so my belief is that Elon Musk is way too smart away to experience So you definitely didn't say the present doesnt have a strategy. Nobody say my right, I'm sure it and say that the same doo doo doo doo doo. Impulsive tweets by Moscow, musk is being accused of being impulsive I had a backwards, so it is that musk himself is being accused of being impulsive. Maybe the way tweets us about it. I'll bet I'll bet. You could not find a less impulsive person than you are ask it. If you talking about the business and of it I'll bet, you could not. Even you can probably wherever you never find anybody less impulsive, less an engineer. Engineers are
you now have that impulsive? That's, for now.
Transcript generated on 2020-02-05.