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Episode 837 Scott Adams: Talking Turkey, Democrat’s “B” Team, Coronavirus Predictions, Twitter Takeover

2020-03-05 | 🔗

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a

Content:

  • Paul Singer trying to oust Jack Dorsey
  • One term Presidential candidates
  • Chasten Buttigieg’s speech, moved me
  • Confusing Turkey conflict news
  • What stops ANY flu from becoming pandemic?

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The post Episode 837 Scott Adams: Talking Turkey, Democrat’s “B” Team, Coronavirus Predictions, Twitter Takeover appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Bump bump bump bump bump bump bump bump bump on everybody come on in here, you're all still alive, corroded corona virus hasn't got you yet stay strong stay with me. We will get through this all right are we begin, shall we begin on a good note, a positive note, the best another there ever was? Yes, it's called the simultaneous epinal you need. All you need is a couple. You're, a glass, a dagger channels or Stein akin to inject a flask of vessel of any kind filled with your favorite liquid. I like coffee enjoy, We know from the umbrella pleasure that doping inhibited today the thing that makes absolutely everything better scald the simultaneous up, go ah prospects or
as in stock market is getting stronger. Corona viruses is getting handled. Yes, that was a good set. Turkey seems to be getting rid of bad people yet, but it is up. The talk about the news all the loose, so yesterday I tried by new equipment that you see behind me. It's called a wire casting gear. And it's meant to allow me to do split screen, live stream broadcasting, but it has so many options for doing that. That has taken me literally monster.
Which was to do it. There are several ways to do it and they all have one thing in common: they don't work every time, so I spent nine thousand dollars this year to solve one problem, which is that I could not reliably have two people up and hear them and see them into do it interview so nine thousand dollars in three months later I have determined. Through trial and error and documentation and were Hugh with tech support that none of the at least three different methods for doing that work. Every time So you can really set up an interview and schedule lit with anybody use notable. If you have a technology that doesn't work every time, we can't really say why. Maybe it's because the version changer Skype upgraded, used to be compatible. But now it's
So that was nine thousand dollars of wasted money. So we what we probably won't be doing any interviews with that technology away, but let's talk things there's little update on the Eddie Gallagher story is the seal who was convicted for taking a picture with a dead soldier and posing with it, which is a big, no, no in terms of military. Nationalism, but independent of the events in the story which are less interesting to me. I would like to make the following will say
philosophical line in the sand, and it goes like this. Every Gallagher took part in a photograph that the public should never have seen, but any Gallagher did not show the photographed the public. He showed it to a friend or something like that. You did that. I don't believe you posted on social media. I believe his intention. Was that somebody personal to him would see it now. Would the person who is set to be offended by the picture, probably not because he would have picked somebody you knew, would not be offended, presumably,
That was his total crime, in my opinion, at least in terms of the photograph part of the story, the total crime was it. He said to one person I think one person or a few privately. I think that's what he should be. I think that the only thing you should be accused of and would it have any impact on the world if one friend the sordid appropriate photograph of the answer is no. So what Eddie Gallagher intended to do? He didn't poorly because the phonograph got out. But what are you intended to do was harmless relatively so you don't want anybody. Taking that kind of picture Obviously you could have had an impact on the people who are local when it happened, the other, the other military etc. So it's not. It's not trouble free, but it's a small problem. One cent photo became public,
the small problem turned into really quite a serious one and one that somebody should go to jail for, and I think the person should be. The person released. The photograph, so I think, to pursue, should go to jail, is personally Without the public over me say this as a general statement about photographs and quotes and jokes, we should develop this entered it doesn't exist right now. We allow something really really stupid to happen and destroy lives every day and it just stoop entity, and it goes like this to people who are having a private conversation. One of them said something that doesn't fanned the person there talking to because they understand the concept, and maybe there's is not easy to offend, but then they tell us.
They represent the text, they post the mean they tell you, as somebody said, and suddenly the context has changed and now that innocent statement made by the original person in this and in the sense that it was never intended to hurt it was intended to be private, but one somebody makes our public. I feel super strong about this point. They have to take responsibility for what happens from that point on the person who broadcasts it should go to jail, not the person who said it to one person privately, that's just bad as bad. You don't want it Scourgeth depending on the message, but its nowhere near its not anywhere near the about of evil and badness of the person who produced the picture for the public. That's that's a level of evil that I can't I can't tolerate.
So they said I am honoured to present in favour of president trumps plus a generous, generous treatment of Anti Gallagher. Let's talk about Oprah. I swear. The simulation just keeps giving us little gifts, Probably have all seen the viral video over Oprah falling down on stage. I guess her shed. Some heels were poorly designed to Chechnya, trapped just overgrown feed or were slipped on himself down and fell, got a little bit injured. Chastiser leg doesn't look bad now, there's nothing funny about simply falling on stage. Does you ve seen a lot of people. Who had serious injuries falling and says, there's nothin funny about it. Unless the moment you fall the topic you're talking about his balance, Possessoire,
opened. Oprah was literally walkie, onstage alone, just onstage talking about how important it is to have balance, and then she lost her balance and fell interface. Onstage. Now again she was a little bit hurt, that's not funny Alas, alas, she was talking about balance at the time she fell. Well, I'm sorry opera, I love! Opera, no offense intended I'm sorry Oprah. Really. I was a little bit funny very low. Listless reverse! Let's do the! Let's do the thing where you say: ok, if that happened to me if I have been talking about balance and fell on my ass on stage and her myself, but not badly. Here just need little ice when I think that was funny of peace.
Who were laughing at me and the answers would totally think that was funny. I would I would reach we that myself, because I would be pretty hilarious actually, even if I were her lorries, it wasn't that bad, just just I would like to introduce a new law. I call the atoms law of Amazon Book Reviews, and it goes like this that, if there's a book now, this may not apply to other goods, but the supplies the books This is a book there has over a hundred reviews, which means there are enough reviews to assume its, not just trolls right, so over a hundred means is probably real people most. Many way and over half of the reviews or five stars meaning that a lot of those hundred people think it's a terrific book and I'm not talk about my box and just talking books in general. If ever a half of them things of five star terrific book, every one sorry view comes from
troll an idiot or somebody with an agenda which could be the same. They can overlap. But I've never seen what I consider a legitimate one. Star review for a book can be for other things goes, tools are different for different people, etc. The legitimate one star review I've never seen it and something that also add more than half of them. Five stories so just gives out right now. Is it true every single time, probably not, as close, if you look at one story, views books lots lot of times. It's obviously having read the book and sometimes even say that there are one story, views that I get all the time all the time from people. We say in review. They haven't, read the book and they say there's something about me that I had so they give me one story have, as always. Now they don't last, because people complain and get rid of. The lot of the reviews are just fake
You should know that and other news, big, rich guy, Hedge fund guy Paul singer is trying to oust Jack Dorsey from his ceo rule at Twitter to stop work. It seems like that pissed where's dockers, eight percent. Now I always wondered: how long would last the jacket had to see you jobs simultaneously sea of square, twitter, I guess as long as things are going. Well, that's fine, but people are complaining that Twitter is now making as much money as they think you should. So at this point, that becomes a target, and I guess Jack Dorsey is that these planning to spend six months year in africa- running to companies in the United States, I had to see a little trouble carbon right
I don't have any opinion about whether Jack could pull that off. In other words could successfully run to american companies while spending six months ear in Africa, and the answer is maybe he started up two of the most important countries companies in the country successfully. Would you bet against the Euro? If Jack had been part of one gigantic billion dollar recovery, you'd say well, maybe get lucky, maybe worked with good partners which is getting lucky, but if you're, of two that you were part of the start up and they're both billion dollar companies and doing pretty well well. Maybe there is something about you right, wouldn't rule out that Jack has some talons that may be Paul singer is, is blind to.
But I'm not sure the pole, singer is entirely about the money in this case, because if you don't know, Paul singer is and correct me. If I'm wrong, I believe he is, one of the wealthiest most active anti choppers, so I believe he's republican anti jumper type. Would you want somebody use anti trump, but conservative in this case to have more control over to utter better a worsen. Whatever the situation is now doesn't sound good. But I dont know necessarily is worse, so that little fights go alone will keep an eye. That year, twitter is not like any other product, in my opinion
And I dont use Facebook, so maybe I use it just to look at other people's photos, but our road like an apolitical stuff there. It seems to me that Twitter is like the brain of the planet, meaning that if twitter doesn't like something is probably that meaning the majority of twitter users and if the majority of twitter users do like something probably will happen. I think yes, the dog is weighing the tale at this point is not that I don't think twitter is any longer just people talking about things that are happening, that's how it started. But at this point I think twitter is was making things happen a big difference, so twitter isn't like any other american Company and Amazon. Point. We may have to recognise that, in terms of what, though, the public is comfortable with in terms of their board of directors and everything else,.
It wouldn't be bad to have some diversity on the board of the of the political type, and I don't know if that's I don't know, if that's the case, but it would be good to have it. Alright, Jack Welch died age. Eighty four who hears why that's more important than you would think, of course, is important when a business icon dies, it's always big news, but he died at eighty four here, the ages that these candidates for president would be if they finished his second term. And the second term- is really the only resolution elected president. In my opinion,. Why would you ever vote for a president, though you believed would be limited to one term when that beaches to terrible choice because, if you want your party to really make a difference, you can see with us.
That you do a lot and for years, but eight years is a big difference. Almost double some would say: oh yeah, that lame duck things was not quite double. More? Why would anybody nominate the candidate for president who couldn't reasonably be expected to finish to terms if that person did well. So here are the ages of bite him you Eighty five, if you finish the second term, Bloomberg eighty six Bernie eighty six Jacqueline died at eighty four now. Do you think that Jack well? She was a hundred percent mentally capable of illicit being the president and age. Eighty two, probably that Probably up so this is the sort of thing that adds context to what you are already thinking in this Jack Welsh death.
Might mean more than you think because of his yes very coincidental age, and he is let's say by not by association but was saved by importance and gravel gravitas and wait- There's something about Jack Welsh, which is similar to a president, who is a sea of one of the biggest company is most famous businessperson. So in our minds we sort of put him in this, Category is like a president of the United States, the indifferent job, but seem like high level kind of dude, in this case a dude, and I think it doesn't matter to our sense of context and kind asked because those are very influential there. You see somebody that reminds you of these other people there there sort of veto, old white guys run stuff, and that-
died at eighty four. I think it matters. I think the ages of the candidates are going to be a real big issue. I. There is a little bit of disagreement about whether Jack Welsh was the greatest business person in the world bastard I have a little mixed feelings about it, usually don't talk poorly of people on the same day that they die, but I'm going to make an exception for Jack Welsh and I'm going to make an exception for him, because part of his management genius was cruelty. Cruelty. The the g method was fired, the your ten percent, worse workers, no matter what every year he was probably the cruellest leader that we ve seen the also ship the lot of his jobs to China, with no upon
and I believe that a lot of his success this this part of you to say I don't know this Demetrius in fact check this out of one a label him on the day that he dies. Can you live will simply if they're dead already enough. That's the thing, but there's does at least some suggestions that destroyed the company, in other words, that he built our profits, the financial part of the company and they weren't as real as they needed to be so somebody these affect check me on that, but be very, very sceptical of anything you see today the says he was. You is great for this country. Just be sceptical about that, maybe was maybe wasn't again
Wouldn't say the spell somebody on the day that they died, except that the reason these famous for being the bastard. So you know I just know every sympathy for frankly, I saw a video Don Junior treated round, in which Joe Biden promised some people at some gathering. He was speaking to that you raise their taxes and here's the funny part I couldn't tell us, it was a gas he lifted the crowd, and he said he promised me was garee would raise their taxes was at a gas, because I can't tell because I'm pretty sure he wants to raise taxes, but I thought he was talking about the rich and here's the interesting part. If I had to guess, I would guess it's again. Unless Alessi saying I'm being honest with you, I'm raise your taxes a little bit, so we can have
reversal healthcare by years of What is it I can't tell of services, watch the whole clap and then it will be obvious to me so for years. The boy! The point is that you cannot tell that's the funny bark. The funny part, is you don't even know if it's a gas or Israel, if you can't tell. If somebody is gathering or tell you what they really intend to tell you, that's not a strong candidate, it's not so as Kyle Cavalry noted twitter, probably other people that this idea, but I like it that Binding in Bloomberg, who seem like the three most likely candidates there, literally the beating- Bernie Biden Bloomberg well over the bane, of course Sanders S, but we call him birdie.
So they're literally the beating again Oprah falls down what she's talking about balance and the last weekend. It is for the Democrats, who don't look. That's wrong are literally the beating. I love the simulation, how many times have I told you in different contexts that in hypnosis class we learned that people tell you exactly what they're really thinking by their choice, Words, so they can be telling you a is true. It is true as true, but sometimes the choice of words in which their telling you is true is really to tell you. They mean D is true, and you can see this. Lot. So you look for the words they choose. Not just the message that their communicating and you see this with Buddhism when he dropped the race. You all know that put adjudged dropped out.
And his argument is that he says it fairly directly. Those to consolidate support with a candidate who is not Bernie, basically so that they can. They can be Trump submerged. Talks about beating Trump Biden says be Trump Bloomberg, says beetle. If you ask them why the running for president, they say we want to be Trop. What does that's what they mean? What one, if you actually took their words and said? Ok, what if I were you if there were no context here and now looking at these words, what have I just looked at the words and said they mean exactly what they're saying this is they happen, hypnotists trick. And what they are saying is that that's their top priority is beating trump. What's missing from that anything is good for you.
What where's the part where they're going to help you or is it part of their going to make you richer where's the part where they're going to make you safer where's the part where they can make you happy. Whereas the part where their proves the military reduce crime. Give you more healthcare. Doubt least, burning Elizabeth, worn are are actually famous for their specific policies, and I give them that that's as let's do with whether wireless burning is doing well is that he's got very bold policies, even even people who absolutely don't want them to be president, the people a talker column, Karlsson,
I just saw him somewhere complimentary, say: Bernie Sanders is bold. Whatever else you want to say about his vision is bold as hell. I can't take that away from we like that we'd like gold, but it is clear that the that the more conservative side, the button Bloomberg Buddha, judge burning part without the Bernie part that they really do only have one goal, which is to be Trump do one vote for somebody who's philosophy is we know that Trump is a monster who will destroy the world, but here's the weird park. It doesn't happen in the first, four years for some reason: there's a timer first, four years, those are free But why ITALY has re elected?
told you ordered Orangemen dad and we meant it, but what we meant was not the first four years, because if, if the If the Democrats were running against trumps record, they would run against his record when there is that's. The purpose of trying to get elected is to help you run against his record and run a guess, the things he is broken and fix them. I believe they would say those things if they thought the public
was ready to accept them, but instead- and this is the hypnotist trick- they say over and over again as clearly as possible, their top priorities to beat Trump. Do you want a president who is top priority was simply to beat the other guy. I can't think were worse president. That would be among the worst reasons, for anybody to ever be a precedent complete waste. The time Bloomberg, this gonna spend a billion dollars or whatever just be to beat up that just feels personal doesn't doesn't just feel personal. It no longer and no longer even looks like other, though even trying to be political. Even it just looks personal. Bull judge quit gave his little speech,
I really enjoyed his husband chest and little introductory speech. I thought that chest and was very likeable and I would give him well baby. This is too bubbled, then I'll say it anyway. Chastity Buddha judge. For a Bell Peace Prize now think about think about it. Now, if you didn't see the speech, that does mean that's pretty confusing, but according to Jest, and I believe I believe it that part the reason he encouraged paid to run for president was because of what I would say What what what what it would show the world and so the two of them, and I think chest and was a pretty big part of this.
Was showing the world that Europe could be out proud. Mary came in he run for president and that the public would suffice. Freedom and then it would change the world did it. I think you did, I think, you're dead. I watched chest and grew up on stage and kiss b on the lips in front of the Polish National tv I actually clapped. I was home alone actually collapse, like literally clapped, because in losing, I think booty judge still one though you might come back, you might be a good presidency someday. I think you know is is closing speech anyway. I think, showed why he's not resident or be least this nine, because it was
lacking passion, but it sure had lots of smarts in it. It was lots of jargon. Sadly more, like a consultant peed, never really spoke me a very emotional level, but I would say that The end result of his campaign was exactly what chest and hoped it would be. Which is changing the way the world looks up the algae community. I think that was accomplished. And if you were to ask me what would hear what would be one of the greatest ways to make the world a more peaceful, we'll just look at all the countries that are literally murdering gaze Nobel Peace Prize Stock, crazy, it's not crazy So let us put that other. I was reminded when Buddha Judge quit The present had that one of the best killer, ever seen
Alfred Newman cannot become president of the United States. Now that's a kill, shouted sentence instead of the neck. Although the offer the Newman part is the strong part, but just that the construction of this sentence, is so wonderful. It's such a good construction. Just, already Newman cannot become. President of the United States is to understand how beautiful their sentences until You try to imagine how you would have said no I would have said something like he looks like Alfred Newman, which would have been kind of powerful. Does it make you think of him for a while. He could have got started, calling him Alfred, which you didn't. It likely. He never really gave a nickname to mayor piety, sometimes played with his last name, as it is hard to pray. But ever really gave him a nickname beyond that one's sentence, but try this
of a better sentence structure than this one, Alfred, Inhuman, cannot become president of the United States, its just kind of perfect right and I don't think the president ever gets credit for his simple, perfect statements, because all the concentration, as is on whatever he says wrong,. In summer black church Bloomberg appeared and I guess there was protestors who were standing up front or nine of them who turned their backs to him, because they're happy about his Probably about stopping frisk, I think, is what we concerned about, and I thought well, that's probably the into Bloom, because that's so visual and if you losing your black citizens of this country and you're thinking about voting
you just starting to get serious about figuring. It was left to vote for you don't, much about Bloomberg because you didn't grow up in New York City. So you find a get about him for the first time through the news and find the news that black church goers turned their backs, that sort of the and right, I would say that the odds of a Bloomberg presidency, just just one zero, now- I've said that before and it's never been more obvious than now. There's a slow realisation that the only thing that matters is the black vote. Now, of course, everything else has to happen roughly the way we expect it to happen, and it usually does most Democrats folk demographic, both begins. Vile Republican turn out will be something in that range that we can weaken. Kinder predict what the black vote. Congratulations guys.
You are in charge of this year. So if the next president doesn't do what you want him to do, Let me say this to my fellow black citizens and teammates sign you this time. It's kind of on you, because the black, the black vote, will determine who's next present. There is no doubt about it. They then there are. The interestedly is the most flexible part of the voting public Stop it for some reason: the topic of the presidency so you're in charge. I hope you choose well here's some fun. I jumped on this corona virus hoax thing early, so the hawks part was that the hawks was claiming that President Trump had called the virus itself hoax, which never happened.
He had talked about how the dam, the Democrats were politicizing it and the press and Sarah. So we said that part was not. That is not the virus itself. But politico and others. Tweeted round and restoring saying claiming that the President called it the Krona virus, a hoax, here's, the fun part Facebook, with his new policy of labeling, fake news, labelled a fake news. So on Facebook, politico story that the President called the virus. A hoax is actually just labelled, fragments, congratulations, everybody. I believe that Twitter did this, and I believe that, because
we are also primed and alerted for these hoaxes now, because we ve seen so many and now that we see exactly other done, it's always a misinterpretation. We hope they don't check the original. They can see the story, but they're not gonna, see the transcript that sort of thing and we all jumped out quickly and we just we just hammered that thing when it was still in its crib, and I think we can that. Maybe I mean my pop up again, but I think that one got killed by fairly aggressive counter action. And now Facebook is labelled a very good, so good work. I will get to the throne virus, of course, a cigar turkey first, I don't know what's going on in Turkey and trying to figure now I feel like the reporting is failing me. So when I can make out, is that there is
it lives is a city near the border of Turkey. Hits in Syria Turkey's pounding, the syrian forces, but here's the part. We don't understand Russia as decided it just get out of the way which allowed the Turks to just pound the peasant and Syrians. Now I guess the turkish military is far more capable because they really, It looks like they really slapped around the Syrians, but what's happening with Russia is Russia do leave? Are they just sort of stayed out of the way where's, NATO? It's it's a hot war.
With a NATO within NATO ally. Why are we in it and therefore, not in it? Why don't we take Turkey out of NATO or Somethin Shouldn something be happening now? It could be that the Russians know that if they attacked Turkey, that NATO is involved. So it could be that the Russians are saying Euro risk reward, we're just gonna anyway, all we want- is worn board. We don't really care about anything else. Let's just get out of the way. So I feel like that story. We are not being served well by the press. We need a little will extra talking about that North Korea launched some short range rockets, which feels like sort of a look They look at me now a lot of time.
Has gone by since Kim Jong. Il said his unhappy about where the conversations or where the negotiations are going. Where they're, not only, I guess, don't you think he would have done more. If we did not have a president Trump, who at least made some inroads in conversation in opening up the dialogue. I think so. It feels like North Korea has turned into a weird least stable situation, meaning that we ve got sanctions on obviously, North Korea. Figured out how to get around them and as long as they believe, we're, not prepping to attack them, and I think present trumpets convince them that we have zero interest in ever invading North Korea or or regime changes is now. Where were we do. I think you can jugglers just gonna binders on business for a while, but I think these short range rockets.
In this case, it may not even better message may have been just a test case, short range rockets, warmth and scary anyway, circumvents colonel virus. Here's my prediction for where things are gonna go, and that gives some context first. I asked the question on line because it's scary that we know all know the answer. Whatever stops flew from getting everybody Scooby, maybe a few more those days is gone, but what stops any flew? Just a seasonal flu was stops it from eventually affecting everyone now many of you are going to say y know the answer that it's the whether when the weather gets warm then doesn't go around as much, because that makes sense.
Let me ask you this: where do you spend most you type in the southern indoors right? I live in California. In the summer. You really can spend that much time. Outdoors most of us most human beings spend almost all of our time indoors. Very few of us are even outdoors except to gun in the car. Maybe a gopher run. One hour a day, maybe outdoors stops. That would be typical, So if you say, the only difference is that people are going out of doors, notably by the law. That doesn't seem like a reason like him, because the if you ask as the temperature I would ask you, what is the temperature endorse possess, where we all are the same year round now, I'm seeing in the cabinets and I'm getting to that
so some people say is humility, so I've I've heard the theory. I don't know how true this is. Somebody fact check me in this. The whole point of what I'm saying is that I dont understand: what's going on what says humility if it were humidity that makes a difference, wouldn't we be pumping humanity into our indoors spaces snuffed out, our humanity is easy water little heed humidity. So if this current virus is this gigantic, you know deadly thing. It is as if it's true that this
There is one when things are less of a problem and if it's true that it's because of indifference and humidity, and is also true that when it's not like we're getting corona virus from a tree, I dont think people get it just because they would have doors. I would guess that nearly all of it is transmitted indoors when you, if, if indoors, is the problem and its the difference of humidity indoors, that's the main factor between rampant spread in the winter versus not ribbon spread in summer. Wouldn't we be adding humidity, Doktor Jus, it's about time. You got your answer this question. If you know the answer, some just ass, this, the doktor driven open, you listening. Why don't all viruses eventually effect just about everybody?
Couldn't we add humidity to an indoor environment if it seem unity that makes a difference? Why wouldn't we be doing that anyway? So that's the point. Most of our time is spent indoors and exactly the same temperature, no matter where you are in the world, no matter what season it is so the cap in the temperature and an old thickest just because the kids are mountains, cool because we're still all socializing massively all the time, there's nothing about summer. That makes you socialized lass or even make you be indoors, less them unanimously. The difference between being indoors twenty four hours a day, except going to your car verses being indoors twenty three hours day, but maybe a gopher run for an hour. It's not that much difference and, as somebody sang in the comments and I sat on Twitter, it's always winter someplace. So
Here's what I would expect, based on based on what the media has informed us, which means that there is something missing something important. I don't know what it is, but a something important, because all those other flues do not seem to infect one hundred percent of the world, and I dont know why I can get why maybe ten percent would be have some weird immunity or ten percent? Coincidentally, though, interact with somebody, but how does it not get ninety percent of the public of vengefully, given all the travelling since we have so as an open question doctor do if you know the answer that I would love to see a tweet on that now. I've heard one speculation is that the virus mutates, and the idea would be this. If I get it from patient zero, I've, gotta version, that's pretty cool,
the one I got. I give it to you, and yours is one little bit different from the other one patient zero and if enough people give it to enough people, one theory is that it mutates enough. So is not quite the same thing anymore and maybe not as viral that true, if it is then this virus would be just like every other spheres, where I'm getting out from my prediction ass. This virus is Leslie men made and I don't think it is, or even if it is human made, but is made to mimic the natural once it's gonna have this quality, which is for whatever reason it goes away, just like every other. I don't know the reason that I am not entirely sure that science knows it. I think they're just something in the math
there's something them not understanding the doesnt smell right, but the boy being here's my prediction, growth a virus will come under control. That's based on the theory that is not so different from other flues that always come under control, hundred percent of every past bad flu has come under control. That was before we had good good medical treatment, etc. So, first bar the prediction is, there will be an end to this. The most likely scenario is that it happens within the year since the first good news but the bigger issue is end than this but I would say, is if nobody had ever told you. There was anything called Carogne virus and you just slaughtered everybody getting the flu were just getting regular flues
Would you ever notice that the krona virus had swept through the planet? Now, if it's like around, where people who seem to be dropping dropping in the streets, the yeah, you notice, the hospitals will be full, etc. If it's like the United States- and I don't know what the differences but so far, it seems that it's, it's not dropping people in the street. If it becomes like that, you can see that it is run this course, and you wouldn't have even noticed- if let me put it this way, if the number of eighty year old, plus people that you now dying in a year when from seven to nine, could you tell the difference, wants a big difference. The people died, obviously,
But would you know the difference? I don't think you it does you dont know if seven people, you know over eighty were supposed to die that year, because that's when people die or if it was a little extra, you actually wooden mill. So there's a good chance grown a virus will just run its course. I do think
Would I so far they all seem to be in their age where people are dying in any way, not that that makes it better and here's my prediction at the moment. The best thing that look the world can do for health is take a step back and close in factories which closes all these supply lines. If supply lines stayed closed, there would be a massive depression in the world and it would kill far more people than the virus. So here's the balance and here's the basis alone protection at the moment. In the short term, the highest risk is the virus in the medium term, which is I'm just talking about a few months in the media
the term the biggest risk of death will be the economy going bad there's across overcoming it's just a few weeks away the moment, the biggest risk to the world is that the economy is crumbled because the supply lines fell apart. At that point, people will consciously make the decision to risk the virus to save the economy, because that's how you save the most lives when the economy goes bad people die, they die a lot of people star of the massive dislocation and risk. So I think there is an inevitable cross over a point where China is gonna say up. If we open these factories to two percent plus of the people who go to work are gonna die.
But if we don't open the factories, ten percent of our population will die. This no contest, there's no contest. China will open the factories because it's the way to save the most people, even if two percent of them are guaranteed to die now, there's nothing to be happy about right, But, given that we ve seen that mostly compromised people are recovering, what I expect is that these factors will open, but not until not until the people who. Have been checked out to be older or may have some underlying illness. They might be relocated. In other words, there might be some special consideration for people were a certain age or have any kind of underlined condition that they probably wouldn't go back to work. You have to keep them safe,
but if you're thirty and you're in good shape and your Chinese and the worst case, forgetting the flu is Prob a few days off work a couple weeks off work? I think the factories good open When that happens, you're stock market will zoom, of course, It is true that I think we're I think we're only
eight weeks away from the supply lines being reopened- and we can probably we can probably get by three weeks- would probably have a month of supply for everything. There is probably a month where things will be rough, but will still figured out and that I think, will be back in action. So yeah there's this report that their sending the weders to work in the factories them. Unfortunately, that might be part of this part of the recovery, which is just the worst thing in the world. Somebody says if I can't work even a home. I can't pay my mortgage. That is correct and that's why
you will see people go into work and risking the virus because it will be a smaller risk, then risking the economy. So does I feel like good news, because there is really no chance that the economy will go to depression, because the risk as good a flip, its issues that obvious as well the gown- and I will talk to you tomorrow-.
Transcript generated on 2020-03-06.