My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a
- Two President Trump untruths…that became truth
- Three coronavirus treatments that seem promising
- UK strategy of herd immunity at 60% infected level
- BLOCK those saying “it’s just the flu”
- Tips for coronavirus anxiety
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The post Episode 851 Scott Adams: #WuFlu and Coffee appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Bump bump bump bump bump everybody come on in here. It's time for coffee was got Arabs, and although the world is a stringent confusing place at the moment, we can still enjoy the best part of the day. It's called the simultaneous up and you dont need much to participate. No, you dont new corona virus completely optional, but if you have it, your coffees guarantees extra good. All you need is a gift from each other. Again,
All you need is a couple of Margaret Glass attacker channels or sign a contingent of lesser vessel that guy fill it with your favorite liquid. I like coffee and join me now for the unparalleled pleasure. The dopamine into the dancing makes everything better. It's a simultaneous up. Go that's crisis quality there! Everything tastes better when you knew worried about stuff was stuck about this
there's nothing else going on right. Is it my imagination worded all of the other news, either completely stop or or we don't care about it, so others there's a lot of stuff, that's happening than couldn't girl
Let's talk about what s interesting about this flu stuff. Here is the Good NEWS. There are three different treatment as opposed to a vaccine vaccine. Apparently vaccines already gone into rapid testing. Maybe we'll see that maybe we'll see that soon away or switch topics, the switch
is it just occurred to me at the moment. Tromp has now said two things that are unambiguously Andrew. There seem to be coming true, so the first thing that jump said was that we develop this vaccine and it would be
record time, and then the experts doktor out. She said: well, you probably eighteen months, so not really right away,
and then the president would get up and say: yeah we're gonna have in record time and then found you
get up again well a months and then the president would say we're gonna get that vaccine in record time.
And then he read the news and I think it was Gilad, put the vaccine into rapid testing and they said hey. We ve got an idea and I think I have this right.
I might have this wrong, but and Juliet was saying why don't we do something we never did before, which is start developing it, because we're optimistic developing meaning you're, making it manufacturing it,
in time or testing it, because in the unlikely event that we hid it, and then I guess you're pretty confident that are at least in the neighbourhood of the right vaccine, they're saying we could be done with it and distributed the same day and I said to myself was included in the eighteen months. Some use has not really, but Europe does the eighteen months assume that we do this the way we normally do it, because we're not doing things in a normal way at all. So here's where I think I think we're gonna be surprise.
I used in the in the good direction about how quickly the vaccine is developed, so that so let me give you that production will be surprised in the past that way it will be done before we think it should be done. I dont think if I were to bet Yahoo is closer. The Trump saying it's aids near any minute now or she who sang is good eighteen months, probably somewhere in the middle. Maybe because what happens if the here's, the here's, the wildcard, why.
Happens if the problem starts getting him ten times worse and only three months have gone by and they vaccinated people and it's apparently works, but they can't tell if there's a side effect yet cuz you. You need to wait longer to to figure that out, but they could kind of tell it works. Just don't know if it's safe,
We're gonna have we're gonna have a decision like we ve, never seen before witches. Will you take this extra risk of semi tested vaccine that similar enough to things we ve done before
but that we think it save the other computer models, the other simulations thereon, I'm sure they do that they say it safe, but she can ever really know until you do the long long studies will we reach a point where the president will have the following decision. Mr President, we can get you a vaccine in five months. The risk will be very high, but the risk of not using it could be higher. We need a decision. I think we're going to see that.
Second story is that president quite famously went out and said the Google was building some kind of a nationally available website to, I think figure out if they should get krona virus, medical care, and then Google said now we're not we're doing that nope
and then it came out that it was a subsidiary of alphabet that really had been called Google tool at twenty fifteen or something so is sort of aid,
Google like company and then people said. Ok, ok, so wasn't like a hundred percent wrong.
It was a google like company within the Google Universe, and you could call that a Google company, but technically it's as another name, even though a Google company, and then it came out that but but then people said yeah, but it's not could be done soon.
And then the companies as well yeah, we're gonna tested pretty soon and obviously, if it worked out, we can make a big pretty quickly this a website. How hard is it to take a website from
All the big, that's something we know how to do so, but here's, the funny part by by the end of I think the end of yesterday Google announced that they, Google we're going to build a national website that the President said they were building. So I think in two occasions,
you just watch the the President Ben reality in a way the only you can. I swear to God there's nobody else who could have done this?
I'm not even saying ESA is a bugger a feature,
I'm just saying it is. You can decide whether you like it whether it's an accident where there is lock weather
Randomness, you don't even know what to call this mean seriously. What do you call this? The guy who reads Yoo, hoo, hoo hoo, tells us I mean he's told this is many times that uses the power of positive thinking to bend reality any here that sort of thing your yea air, new age crap, can bend reality.
Have you can't you can't bend reality? That's not a thing! So go read your power of positive thinking, books, cuz reality isn't something you just banned by your positive thinking and then the president gets up there and says to ridiculously false the things about this about this crisis. I think both
We're gonna happen, weirdly them in one of them already happened, so I'm fifty percent right already has somebody says, alas, Steve Jobs right the reality distortion field. I think this present makes things happening happen by warning them, obviously that the country is primed to respond and in every citizen is doing their thing to make things better, scatter remarkable. I don't want to make that, but early years, mother producer three treatments for people who have already gotten Gruner viruses, not a vaccine that seem promising, and I'm hearing lots of chatter about them being promising.
Meaning that there are using them in their working, so some number of this is just anecdote. All they haven't controlled studies, but anecdotally we're getting a lot of reports that this drug called REM Desert here helps people recover faster and here's the better that, I think, there's some complication with RAM desert here.
Being widely available. I don't know that the details of that there's that there's some red tape or something else about that that may limit the availability, but the other one is a cheap malaria, drug. So drug that already exists.
It is widely available called clerk clerk Queen Cor again,
age: L, o r, o you! U, I any chloric wine clerk wine sunlight
and also a steroids called methyl bread Methyl Breton ozone sounds good. Think, that's when I was on, I was present.
So through trial and error, and massive a b testing. The medical community is getting the faster smarter. So I hate to watch this like it's a spectator sport, but consider this. The the presumed path of this virus is that it will be exponential. So it's going to be like bad, bad, bad, bad, bad and then, if it, if it's allowed to that, we're doing everything to prevent this. But if it's allowed,
That curve is just gonna, go we'll sharply up, and then we will be overwhelmed and our healthcare, but
not. The only thing is that is exponential. There's something else happening right now that we take for granted. That is also exponential, which is our ability to learn
So we have literally thousands, if not millions, of a bee tests going on their doctors all over the world. Saying well, try this try this try that try this and then reporter,
Jordan to come back now. Once enough, those stuff has been tried and then probably retried, because one one experience would be enough. The the rate at which the humanity is going to get smarter is going to be exponential. We're gonna get smarter, really fast and we're not quite at the inflection point, but if the best case scenario is now that we have the smartest most cable will people in the world the whole nor planet? This has never been the case because we're so well connected by the internet that the entire
our world can be involved and at least there's something some that they can all have the same information or eventually habit. I would the best case scenario is that human
ingenuity is cranking along like a mole foe- and you know that's happening right- you could be confident that the smartest people are born.
All this margin to this, there is a lot of smarter do go on.
And as they learn and they experiment. There's gonna be an inflection point where we suddenly seem really smart.
So I wouldn't straight line human
billowy, any more than I was straight line the virus, because we have a way of being dumb until we need to be smart and then we get smart really fast and we're not there yet. But read that way, I'm here in Europe reports today that are completely not credible. So there are things that people are saying on the internet, anecdotal reports coming in from their various places, I'm going to say that this is not credible at this point, but the reports are that there are lots of younger people who are having serious problems and dying from the
From the virus, that's different, then everything we ve heard up to this point, which is that the younger you are the better in there's just no exception to that, but anecdotally were hearing the stories of younger people we're having a real tough time with it may be some dying.
And I dont know what to make of that sum. That could be
They have underlined conditions, they didn't know about as possible and if, if you hundreds
Thousands of people are involved, somebody's gotta have a weak immune system at any given time and maybe not know about it,
So I understand mutation. Question were watching that, but yeah.
Mutated to be more deadly cuz, that's usually the opposite direction. My understanding is a viruses, typically, if not always become weaker over time, partly because humans get used to them. Maybe that's the only reason I don't know
British government has a strategy of letting
the virus spread to sixty percent of bread, so they can reach some kind of heard immunity.
On the internet. People keep telling me Scott some.
Export or another says that you can get it more than once. So there's no such thing as hard immunity, as you can get a more than once
to which I say those are not necessarily incompatible facts. It could be that getting that gives you a at at the same time that some people can get it again. So those good both be true and still could be good enough to eventually slow down the virus. If enough
People have been exposed. What I dont think is true, and I haven't seen any experts say- is that in general people get it twice as in other words, if the same virus popped up in three years, work would be just as bad as as every other as the first that
I don't think anybody thinks that I feel as though the experts are cautiously cautiously certain that it would be sufficient immunity built up by exposure that, even if some people did get a twice you'd salaam enough immunity. But if you do the math, the British,
plan of letting people get it. That would lead to two hundred and seventy seven thousand deaths from the virus, but it should be noted that or two hundred and seventy seven thousand of those people who,
potentially die there. We're gonna die anyway and if its, if it affects mostly,
People over eighty, it probably wasn't gonna, be along so well, there's nothing! There's, no good news in saying that somebody, you might have lived. Eighty five might only lived eighty to its context and as part of the story, so you can make your own judgments about how much of a holocaust that is or is not that's wrong. Word, I'm just using figures.
So? But but there's the problem? The british model guarantees that the rest of the world gets infected right because the Brits I'll get a good dose of
there's not really any chance that you don't know Britt's taken somewhere else later, I'm in NBA. If you can let sixty percent of your population get, this thing is going to travel, there's no way
so it seems like the Brits are going to get a lot of pressure from other countries to do what they're doing- and I don't even,
We understand what they're doing their acting like they're trying to stop it verses, build up some heard immunity, but now ass little uncertain at this point,
I would recommend for your mental health that you blocked the people on the internet who were screaming it's just the flu and any variant on that now. Could they be right? Is there anything
an area in which the people are saying who are saying we're, overreacting, and I would be in that category of an over reactor according to other people. Is there anything to it?
and what what's the best argument you can make on the stop worrying about his side? No part of what this stop worrying about it. People are trying to do is not crash the economy and that's that's a worthy goal.
What they need to answer, which is why other hospitals are being overrun.
If you could answer that, maybe you have a point,
because the regular flew does not overrun hospitals. The hospitals are built,
They handle annual, flew they do it every year.
Every hereabout. Apparently they do well, but the italian hospitals are overrun. That's the huge tragedy going on there, I'm pretty sure the chinese hospitals were over on. They had to build temporary hospitals into.
Why would it be different here? What would be the argument that our health care system would not be similarly overrun? I don't think there's argument flair
there we have better resources. We have more time to prepare. So we have some advantages that the maybe ITALY didn't have,
but maybe China, because they get caught off guard their maybe they'll have to we have them
there is a non zero chance. We can get through this without crashing our hospitals, but I think it's a low chance. The most likely scenario is that at least some hospitals are going to be turning away. People were dying. I would say that
likely, though I dont, think all hospitals are returning away. People were dying, but you know
you're not going to be able to get them moved to the the empty bad and three states away too easily. So I think in some hospitals they're going to get over on maybe in metropolitan areas,
but what will certainly do, I think, a heroic job of doing what we can in a makeshift way, because we ve had enough time. Fortunately, we bought enough time with you airport clothings that we might be able to scramble and minimize the problem, but it's gonna get ugly, and so I recommend just
blocking and just not listening to the people were arguing. Just like the flu few people die. What do you care like like normal? Just take the matter your life, giving them president Trump took, took a test
to see if he had grown a virus that these negative. He says now, of course, all the sceptics any Woody tell us if we work and the answer is he'd have to feed after. I don't think, there's any question that if the president had been had been infected, the you, I don't think, there's any chance. You lie about it because it will be obvious, because the medical community would not allow him to interact with the rest of the government. If you see, if you see Trump and pence standing together as in yesterday, is because neither them think they have it, I think pencils getting tested and president was tested. So if you don't see the president being removed from other officials,
the government he doesn't have it does now, there's no way the medical community would let this precedent get away with that and by the way it is the in the unlikely event that the White House Doktor got. Co opted to give just a reckless.
Stupid lie and sail
doesn't have it. When he does do we,
do we appoint why our doctors that week? Our thanks, though, do we begin to imagine a white house? Doktor, presumably, should be a pretty serious qualified person. I can imagine that persons or just Lion said the president doesn't have it. Let him in fact the entire
government should going discount any just that no way a test, and it was anything completely discount any chance that is took a test and it was anything but what he said which is respond,
And who were watching here a president who is responding to the public? It was the public led by the media, of course, but it was the public who needed him to get tested unite. I tweeted that the other day- and I said the essentially valley, said Mister
President of the public, need you to get tested cuz. I wanted to put it in that terms. I didn't want to say it usually get tested. You know who am I.
I didn't want to say doctors that you should get tested, cuz again this stuff to the doctors, to tell him not me, but
It was unambiguously true that the country needed it. We needed to check that box and save,
There's one thing we dont worry about is we got plenty to worry about, there's plenty, so the country needed
and I tweeted that now and man did. I get push back the these sort of automatic trump supporters who just back and nobody what he said a port in and said
it will get a test of needs. Do is doctor said he didn't needed. What are you trying to start years? Scott and, of course he he decided to get the test. So I think is good news. When the public cries out for something and then the president does it and it makes sense, there's nothin broken. There was good news. I hear some tips.
For managing your corona virus anxiety? In my opinion, the eyes of the United States losing its basic services such as water and electricity in food transportation. I don't think we'll lose our basics. I think it is funny there will probably will have shortages of proper stuff. The emergency sized canisters itself will probably have some shortages, those, but only because people are stocking up it's not as if the factories stopped making that stuff. So the one thing I think that is the safest
resume and say you'll have regular food, even if the stock market is in the toilet, farmers are starting to grow food, even if some of the people making it the virus is pretty low chance that it gets into your food. I mean it's possible, but it could its.
What chance. I think that the food agricultural system and delivery are gonna work well enough.
So I wouldn't worry about that. If your company, you know it is at risk,
there's a financial problem. I wouldn't worry about that, but you probably more stuff
I would recommend also taken some serious
Hours off of social media, I've been trying to do that both really hard soil, recommending it without being able to do it and
work harder on it because the more you focus on it more worked up. You're gonna get the more anxiety to you really just need to remove yourself from every now and then don't don't ignore it.
Because this important, but remove yourself from it a little bit everyday I've been trying to.
Occupying myself with other entertainments is on locker mouse and
My other recommendation is: do not watch stressful media. Do not watch movies or tv shows where people are dying and there's tension and stress
Just don't do it gives you a real. Your real life has all that all that you need watch, comedies, watch Youtube or content that just doesn't have any scary, stressful stuff, so and watching me, of course,
Why should we use, is excellent and I would say again that I've never felt healthier than I do right now, like literally just everything. Everything about me is working very well at the moment and it feels really good. I gotta say that I got. I got my health as point where I can just sit in a chair quietly and just feel good, mentally I'd feel good, because my body feel so its operating as such, inefficient level right now so
As others have said, it is good to do something. So, even though I feel confident we won't run in a food, you can't be confident that there would be true in every town everywhere.
So do I do little LE reasonable planning pull your stuff together. You had ever have a few weeks of extra bow, I think the odds of it being a super big problem or a really really really really really small. How many of you have had this
problem. You say to you the teenager, living in your house. Haiti nature. I don't know if you ve been following news, but schools are closed.
You're just gonna have to stay in the house for a month, maybe three months and not not your friends.
Do you know any better or child who is going to accept the following proposition Kevin? I would like you to have a horrible time for the next three months. I'm just socially it's going to be a desert. You just you just not going to see your friends, you have any fun your your brain is going to
explode, but you will save lives, potentially not sell you particularly. But if everybody does this, you will save the lives of eighty year old strangers. Good luck.
Good luck- you gonna have a lot of fights, so
here's. What I advise. I would advise make sure that the kids in your house know that this one is a conversation.
If an if you, like most families, the other there's some parents who move really got their parental thing down and kill one question them because they know that the problem, but for most of you, your negotiating with, gets well, I can't do that.
Can I do this, but suppose I only did it for a little while what if we went outside and played, but we were together so the kids are due to start negotiating with.
And I would recommend the following persuasion and- and I ve already done this- and it goes like this in the context of a crisis which were in kids, opinions, don't matter, they will be ignored or listen to him. If you have some information that be great on corporate it by your opinions will be one hundred percent ignored until this crisis is over. This is adults, only there's no negotiate adults, only kids don't get to participate in any decision making during a crisis period.
Very now, of course, that's away should always be right, but in the real world, the others negotiation, and I would say that you should shut down anything that looks like negotiation, say adults only now
fake because we'll work in almost every situation. That is give a reason. Even if it's a bad and the reason could be the government said gotta do this. You could argue against anything but sounds like a reason and say: adults are capable of making these decisions. Children or not
you're, not part of it. Do what I tell you, that's it and that's. That sounds like a reason to, because adults are smarter than kids so say that directly, the other, the the adults are in charge during the crisis. At the end of the story
How do you tell a five year old? Well with a five year old you just on? Let's wait is and they cry and make the scream, and then they just crime screen, but yeah you may after it is likely that kid is gonna. Go
failure, car keys and take your car or something. If you tell him no, I mean
You drive home someplace they're gonna, get too far,
Let em cry: that's! That's all yet.
About the senile. Well, that's every case will be its own case. I guess.
My understanding is that this weekend the bars were full
with the young people who believe that they are not personally at great risk and apparently don't care if they kill a million old people by going to a bar- and I think it's because its there's there, too many levels of abstraction between a young person who goes to a bar and young, your grandmother on the other side, the country who might not dying because it and yes to testicles leap. It look as well. But it's not because I went to the bar.
It's because people went to the bar and I'm not people, I'm just me. I didn't kill your grandmother. I just went to drink and
why I didn't even get infected. Don't blame me
so I think the millennials found a mental dodge to say. Well, you know somebody else's problem and by the way they didn't rape, the planet and leave nothing for us and the cost of living is way higher than when when these old people were young and well maybe it's our turn, we could use a few. The few
you're all people. So the weird thing about this one is, I was thinking
we're all in this together. You know all the country is all the governments, be they Democrats, be they Republicans. This will be the one time that we can all join together because its common problem- and I thought- and that even said this- there was kind of beautiful things. You don't see everybody on the same day,
ever really. I've never seen it so first time and then I realized that doesn't apply to the young.
We're very must not. In the same page, people over forty just picking random number here- people over forty or trying to stay alive people under forty or try to have fun and based on this weekend, they don't care if you live or die if you're over.
Moreover, some age, so we have unintentionally caused a war between the old and the young.
In order for the old to survive. At the rate, they would like to survive percentage wise, we're going to have to crush the young.
I don't see a way around it. The young- and I mean twenties and thirties- are going to have to get crushed by crushed. I being will probably have to send the police to send them all probably have closed the bars pro
they have to Europe. The mace anybody you gathers was more than for people living in public, so
what I say crush on a meme hurt them, I mean they're. There are some serious pain coming that the people who went to a bar this weekend,
don't know is coming or maybe they do, and I figured well one one more. We candle goes the bar.
Yeah. I did hear about the hashtag boomer remover. That's what they're calling the virus, the young people, who would just be delighted if the old people died by liberal sister blames Trump, no matter what, of course.
Sounds like you some your comments here I would normally. I would just end this, but I'm thinking about adding any second periscope in the afternoon early evening or something
What would you think of if I were to add a second periscope just for the period of the crisis, because one of the benefits of of what I do is it doesnt have commercials? If you watch the replay here on periscope and or if you watch life.
And when the world be a little bit better was more content to consume because you to run through your netflix whispered. Equally also, somebody saying in the comments that the no La Louisiana please cleared Bourbon street. That's interesting! You hope I don't lose too much credibility, so MRS Y know see pack outbreak that was sixteen days ago as urban none. I don't know the details there, but you're right now. It can be that though, the one known infected,
Just wasn't sharing that much it's possible that it could be that the EU one known infected person as he back washed his or her hands lot, because what I think we're still pretending we don't know it is right. How many of you know it is I'm just curious in the comments how many of you have seen the name and photo of the person who is accused of being the accused is wrong word, but the person we believe was the infected person there
Ok, I'm seeing less people the the comments were long delayed, but almost like people are willing to seal the second periscope now approach,
wouldn't be like the first one, so I don't know exactly what that content would be, but I'm sure I can find some take some questions or something.
So here the things I'm doing lots of exercise lots of fresh air take a walk. You would be amazed how much better you feel if you take a walk for an hour. Just then just a nice walk outdoors and you have the weather's bad, bundled up if it's raining bringing umbrella but get you walkin, don't tell yourself tomorrow, because you need to do something and it makes a difference. You can build up your immunity. I would guess the my immunity is really humming long re now, because I didn't get to sleep in the food. Do not write. Stuff is very difficult to know
There was a spanish back. That's true! Why do we have the freedom of assembly again to hear some? He says they liked to hear me and Doktor drew on the air will prove
please do that. Doctor drew a fear, fear watching us. We should really do that. Your place, your mind is less important, but we should not do that.
We all yeah in there's. A really interesting thing happening is happening on social media you're, seeing
you're seeing a lot of people will very quickly entered the breach and you say
people were trying very hard to be positive influences on chinese hours. I can add to do something productive during this involves another one, one, maybe the most productive thinker.
Our time so having him fully engaged makes me feel better if you're not watching
following a obliges renovation, you should by far he has the most insightful comments about this whole missiles.
Play from the from the social, the economic, the medical, so,
Biology is one of these four stack people who
There's a category of knowledge he doesn't know about this. Is that no every category of knowledge? So if you was new stuff, you'll get smarter
You're referring to this situation, but I don't know what he says and why I disagree.
I assume you are asking about the Euro four into this situation, but I don't know what he says why I disagree. I'll get. Somebody says they started walking after reading. One of my books had a fail to get rid of that noxious comment.
Doktor drew will tell you to stop spreading panic. Well, it's it's a fine balance, and let me say this: I think reasonable people can disagree about the exact
right amount of preparation.
Worry concerns, slash panic that is productive and how much is unproductive
and I would say that
you're in the situation where a ten percent of the public is panicking, but you had to do that together. Sixty percent of the public to do what they need to do, in other words,
few. If you get, the middle of the country was either the most typical people in the country deeply concerned, which is what you want some little act differently and they have to
get through this. If sixty percent of them are deeply concerned, there's gonna be
just go for our number at ten percent were over concerned and panicking. I don't think you can avoid that. I don't think there's any such thing as getting older people to respond the same to the same message, because we all respond differently. The same message so there's plenty of room for doktor drew and I to be off via off by a degree on what's the ultimate most productive level of panic. But we would both agree that you could go too far and we both agree that the pan,
could be worse than the worse than the disease, so I think we're on the same page. If there's a difference is maybe a little bit a language one degree of difference, but both of us would be guessing frankly, because nobody knows the exact amount of ideally a productive worry, but
Need some worry, you don't want to get rid of it, because it's the worry this causing anybody to do the right thing. Looking at your comments, Doktor Shiva says we're over reacting
Well, are you measure such a thing? You
I still see people saying that people are panicking, but I've not detected
anything that I would call panic. Even the people buying toilet paper. I dont know thither panicking are they have just feels like here? You see the people with a sword. Pictures of people was carts piled high with you.
Of toilet paper. I thought to myself: well, you don't know what the story is. There are those people panicking.
Or they buying for the nursing home right, because, if you're the, if you're the NEO, if you work at the nursing home.
Maybe in your love, toilet paper and you're stuck up, so you might be sucking up for the whole nursing home. So if I can, I just look,
somebody and say: well, you get a lot of toilet paper there. Therefore, your panicking you, you saw the story of somebody. You bought up all the hand sanitizing in his area, then try to sell the matter at the horribly high prices and both Ebay and Amazon. Shutting down said yeah we're getting beyond our platform.
Very much, but about a business even that I wasn't panicking, he was buying up all the uncertainties are just to make money. You usually doing the opposite panicking. So.
I have not seen anything in the public was a
I've seen any of our professionals.
Do anything even remotely like panic of you. Is there any?
he would say. Oh, I watched the view and saw somebody panicking not really not really I'd. I'd have to say that I'd be pretty proud of the United States for the way its handling attitude wise. I think we're we're doing a good job.
Really now. I think some people using the word panic to describe the set of decisions that the government and maybe individuals, are making that what businesses to stay open and how far away we should stay from each other and YO selling your stocks and stuff like that. But I know that that's panic either. It feels like people doing the best job they can of trying to anticipate the odds are what are the odds and what kind of a country do we want to be? How protective should we be of our seniors? I think people are just making decisions. I just don't see panic but correct me if I'm wrong,
All will take as one example- and I say this there's a panic but am scene it take. The stock markets read an article that five trillion dollars or whatever was was removed from the stock market, maybe was bigger. It was a big number and I said to myself and.
There is actually not even any point to that: yeah five trillion of imaginary money, disappeared,
do you know what happens when we get on the other side of this. This thing we're all primed
Every asset is already in place. No decisions, no risks. We just go back to work and the stock markets as thank you and adds five trillion dollars back magic. So should you panic that we lost five trillion dollars now now, because the nature of the market as it goes up and down, is not really a loss unless you're done enough to sell your stocks and when they had allow now, probably was a bad idea, but don't I don't give up?
nice. I am. I got rid of two assets before this happened. So right around the time that China would say hey. We got something going on over here with a flu well before,
I thought I do to care about it
early days. That's interesting worry about that. If they told me to later
there are only two assets I sold one was my oil stocks got rid of all those luckiest like Ireland and and and by the way I didn't even sell it, because our smart, I actually sold
to free up some cash from something else I was doing it wasn't even cause. I was smart, it was just the one they didn't look like. It was new and much lately, so girl get rid of my oil stocks.
That word, though, and the only other thing I got rid of was my bitcoin, so I got rid of all of my Bitcoin holdings. Now, I'm not recognise that you do it. There are plenty of reasons have been Goin play reasons to think it'll be around for a while, but I did not by the argument that the coins would be a gold like store. They would go up when everything else
down, I didn't think it was impossible. In other words, I didn't I didn't rule it out. I thought well could happen. Everything goes bad, maybe maybe Bitcoin goes up would be good to have some, but it wasn't violent. I wasn't bite it, and so I sold all my big when it dropped by fifty percent. I think since and now I'm not braggin both of those were total luck. Total luck! You should try to time the market you shouldn't be buying individual stocks. You shouldn't be listening to me for any advice, but I got lucky as hell on those
you have to balance out against all the times. I've been unlucky plenty of those, so I think because it will be around while I'm sure to recover eventually, but I got out.
I haven't checked the when recently, but it's it's in tiny territory like most of the non decline stuff is.
Do you get to financial advice or act on my own question, when I was first making some serious money with his old dilber thing, I do I I was offered by bankers that well Spargo their special rich person. Division
the GSM investing for which people they said, we could put you in r r, especial rich person department and will do investing for you in the stock market,
and I felt that was reasonably qualified. To do that I mean I have an mba that degree in economics and you know I pay attention, but I was busy and I thought you know I need somebody is really paying attention. Cuz, I'm not going to be walked.
I just thought I was working eighteen hours a day than knocker we'll watch my investments better. Just have someone else do, and hopefully they'll do so well little paper itself,
They bought on my behalf Stockin Enron, I've heard of Enron as right
the smartest people like a higher to invest more money for me, but my money and Enron, not all that a portion of other money they put in world come. We have heard a world cup that used to be a company,
Well, if you tried really hard to invest in someone else's money in individual stocks and your by big companies.
Do you think you would even be able to find too big companies that wouldn't exist in a year?
you weren't a weird economic time right now, but an ordinary times if you use a
I'll buy or by twenty different stocks for your portfolio and then you'll have some diversification. Do you think if you pick twenty fortune five one,
stocks, do you think you could find two of them? There will be out of business and a year Scott, rare! Well, might professionals did it and what they sold to me was that they had extra insight because they talk the management.
Do you know what would happen if you talk to the management red wrong to guess of insight? Well, here's what the management of Enron would not tell my professional investors investing
professionals. They would not say. Oh you know, I have to be honest
www and runs just a whole pyramid scheme, scam and none of us realise all gonna fall apart. Do you think? Do you think that's the insight that my professionals got when they talk the management, because I was less what they told me they sold me. We know them personally were actually get to be in the room with them talking to him. So we have much better vision than you do as well.
The room, what the hell did their help them didn't help them at all. Now the Good NEWS is. I was just smart enough to only give them half of my money that was available for investing at the time, because they were also charge
if he I forget what it was. But what was I to see was one percent and I didn't want to go.
You have away one and a half percent, so I gave them.
Half of my money that was available and I took the other half and I suggest stuck in a fortune five hundred index, and how do you think I did with my half that I didn't manage through index fund of bunch of american companies and they were picking stocks and talk in the management? Who do you think one wasn't even clothes? They lost a third
of the money that I gave them to invest. After several years. There were down a third and mine. I think you fluttered around a little bit but and then took off and were were fine yet so effectively I cut their. She had half, but also a diversified, because the risk I knew at the time that I had to diversify. Also against dwells Fargo. So you don't diversified just among stocks. You should also diversify whose whose in the mix, if we ve only got one person who is responsible for all of your investments,
problem because that one person goes bad. You know your whole portfolios is at risk, so I spread the risk of human beings that they have any influence over my money and make sure that none of them have too much influence. That's my that's my advice.
Just look at your comments here. Did I invest in fairness? I did not.
The index ones will be. Ninety percent of financial managers that is correct, always have always well in my opinion,
What year this was a long time ago, Scissahs nineties, say Scott actively got an oil which is in
Index decision, so I still have oil stocks within my larger index fund, because you can, you can pick and choose you just take all bowl box, but separately twenty years ago or something I had bought.
Index fond of oil stocks, so the only exception to having a broad index that makes sense is, if you have a sub index of some industry, you think he's gonna do extra well, so at the time
I thought okay to industries that I think will always do well as energy wrong and biotech. So I ever index of Biotech the stocks and headed index of oil stocks oil stocks. Basically I got out and about the same place I put it in, but it was after years, so is effectively loss, but the
the bioethics stock is up for unrepresented. In same time now I only put smaller amounts in the sub indexes, so I still have a per cent in the broad index, but I had a few kicker is a few kicker.
Refunds, the yellow, just in case oil or or bio stocks did well. I can get the upside.
Twitter is gonna stay at the price. It is, if I had not already put all my you cash, those on the sidelines into the market and fully invested in financial assets. So I only have real estate and stocks, but that's all
is gonna stay at the price. It is. If I had not already put all my you, cash, that was on the sidelines into the more
I am fully invested in financial.
So I will have real estate and stocks. That's all I only alone little bit of some else, but some investments in companies
But I was looking at the at these stocks. We got whacked artist and I thought you some of these are just a new brighter.
Who is going to use less twitter during the? U any economic, don't downturn, they're not going to use more to her twitter was one of the few stocks that I was also looking at two to make a major shift into those. Yes mother things, but don't take any financial advice for me, but if you see Mark Cuban making it
move on a company like that. Maybe you take his advice. I already on some twitter, stop what if tromp loses. Why think? That's no one option, I think Trump losing the election when from unfathomable before grown a virus,
To closer to a fifty fifty, so I'm going to readjust the slaughter meter down to more, like a fifty fifty proposition right now, now the the biggest thing who gets lame, how bad bad is it? It takes away trumps ability to break
the economy, even if it's only temporarily in the lull, it's just the wrong timing,
so he's biggest assets have been taken from him and even even trumps biggest supporters would say that he said Miss steps with his crony viruses that did not getting tested the other.
Information, etc, but is harder to argue that the United States is making the wrong decisions that the communication part was really shaky, and I criticized it like crazy, but the decisions when to close these airports, what to do look pretty solid. So I don't know if you get credit for the solid decisions as much as you'll be criticized for that. Some of the words
Communication were were faulty a best, but he does seem to be learning on the job if you well, in other words, trumps capability to do this stuff. If you look at it today versus even two weeks ago, I don't think it's the same
he's not he's. Not brain dead, he's figuring out what works and adjusting
You see a majestic in real time as long as he can, and just as long as the feedback is getting to him- and I know it is now he is listening to social media is listening to the public, is listening to the media, and probably one of his greatest assets I would say, is that it does respond to the public in real time. Let me each ages
so I don't think you'll, see him perform as poorly as he didn't. I would expect big improvements actually
But it is fair to say that you need a different personality for different challenges and that all think is perfectly fit. This didn't perfectly fair in the way of perfectly fence. Other things like running for president scattered perfect. For that.
That's why he's doing messrs dimness stimulus know all of these stimulus, stuff, tax cuts, etc. I think those are mostly psychological, but that's good, because the economies
psychology engine, so the president might be the very Bert, well Le Loup assessment, as
as ill suited, as I think the president's personnel visas for the specific kind of disaster, but not as decision making, I think is this- is making this but good, but his personalities doesn't fit this at all
when we get over it and it's time to to crack the knob and get back to work. That's the personality has once it's time to wants is go time, it's time to crank,
the economy again and get pastness show the world
show the world who America's? Basically that's, why he's good at so you can see the fastest. I think that I think this disaster, if you can call it that the crisis is plenty bad, probably will get worse before it gets better, but the recovery whenever that starts, is going to be amazing. I think it's gonna be amazing and that's what tromp is just perfect for somebody says or giving themselves
the massive stimulus right now good for you, I hears good for your immune system. Andrew Yang, you be, I meant, under bindings influence. I don't know that he actually said that
so I got for now. I wore maybe talk to you again. This afternoon will see life now.
Transcript generated on 2020-03-31.