« Coffee With Scott Adams

Episode 865 Scott Adams PART2: Good Morning, Shut-Ins. Let’s Sip!

2020-03-22 | 🔗

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a


  • Coronavirus Loserthink examples
  • Suggestion: Better coronavirus graphics?
  • Suggestion: Debit cards? Representative Tlaib
  • Psychology of toilet paper panic
  • Stop pretending Joe Biden is capable
  • Temporary suspension of civil liberties

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The post Episode 865 Scott Adams PART2: Good Morning, Shut-Ins. Let’s Sip! appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
it's a good question i'm not an expert on review so take anything i say with a dream of salt the the scientists say this they say very clearly that the virus lives surfaces they also say very clearly that that means you can get it from surface and at last quite while of services but the scientists also say they haven't confirmed in a case where somebody just got it from a surface apparently the cases that they can track down there's always a person they find a person now that person may have given it to by putting it on the surface and then you touch the service but the person is always identified as being in the area for a while and other words i got it from my spouse you don't need to ask did you get it off a surface or did it come from their mouth or something you know
the source was the person and that's about as far as we can go we don't know of his cause that kiss we don't know if his cuz they shared a glass we don't know but what we don't have maybe we will see what we don't have is somebody who's them isolated for two weeks and the only thing they touched was the take our food in a bag and then they got the corona virus not saying it hasn't happened i'm saying we would now besides is not is now saying that's identified yet so here's my answer you can't take a risk down to zero that's not an option and you got to eat i'm taking the trade off that if i can keep my local restaurants and and food businesses in operation that's good for them i'm taking the risk that is better than going to the store myself i'm taking the rest that even if i hired somebody to shop for me which i literally did yesterday
y'all younger person with a good immune system and i and i gave i gave a list that was sort of in and out small basket young minimize the time of the store and all that so we're doing risk management were not eliminating risk so the first thing you should say to yours is you don't live in a world where risk could be zero on the krona virus re but you can certainly take the choices that are available to you that are the lower risk so they ask your question i pick up my bag from my front step i have no human contact i pick it up from the bottom because i presume they probably told they carried out from the top i get inside the exterior back off it carefully and then i wash my hands with soap now of course the interior stuff could also you problem to non zero risk but i find that unacceptable
given the science is just now finally with direct path from objects to people we just know it could be so stay away from it your minimize it if he could but i did i do what i can do and that i don't do what i can't do which is i i can't i can't know what's on the interior contents and so i take that risk because it's better than the other wrist so i hope that's it should the sheltered place be applied countrywide or only locally i locally at first and then watch it those are we saying thank you for the recommendation to watch the movie ford verse rory yeah a few people have got back to me with others in said the same thing if you're just looking for a good non stressful feel good about america america can do you know if if europe
again and the vibe that you want to feel that movie really delivers is one of the best movies i've wash long time because it never made me feel bad it's hard to watch a movie that doesn't intentionally make you feel bad and feel bad for the characters and stuff before they rescue the characters like to go through the part where you feel bad before you get to the good news i just watch that movie but this one because it is based on real stuff and even though i won't give anything away but it's not all good news all the way through let me just say that but it doesn't make you feel bad at any point it's a well made movie so if you need it you know a couple hours to get into a different mindset to relax that's a really good choice where can we find it on how the hospitals are holding up well apparently not from the task force
so that would be another thing that the data visualizes should be doing unfair on behalf of the taskforce there should be a one page or the says here some of our metro tells hotels here's some of our metro hospitals here's normal capacity here's the maximum theoretical flexing capacity maybe just for ventilators maybe just free icy usually you might need to break out of it but then change things as as you know what's happening so we don't know that i dont know if anybody knows that and i doubt if we saw the data it would be presented in way you could make much of it so how to persuade others that focuses on the solution side and the disease is far more serious than the flu
well that's what i'm working on and the people who still think it's only the flu have to explain why we already see hospitals being pushed ass capacity if it were the flu hospitals would not we pushed the past capacity if if you're does anybody who argue here just force them to think about that now now the escape path i've already identified is they'll say ah but italy different and they can say italy as old people italy italy is in fact i saw yesterday a smart person say that that italy was miss counting the number of people who are dying from krona virus and the way they counted it made it seem like there are too many so therefore
maybe we're panicking by looking at italy because the way their accounting things is making it look like it's worse than it is to which i say what the hell is wrong with you the other thing were clearly seeing of italy is that their hospitals can handle the load that doesn't happen with the flu the only thing you should talk about when somebody says it's just the flu they're going to try to take you to the numbers say that killed this kill dad didn't close for the whistle on the swine flu they're going to try to take you don't do it stand firm and never leave this point hospitals are already overloaded and we expect ten times as much traffic based on the best experts estimates of how this thing will evolve
some hospitals are already a capacity from this and it will be ten times bigger probably in a month that's what the experts say leave that point the moment you leave that point you vulnerable to losers thank and people can it be like were earlier is different if they say hey stop talking about italy that's there's just a weird thing or another say china had to build new house tell me one other time china try to build a new hospital in a week never and we also have american hospitals new york city is getting close to capacity already and were at the beginning folks were at the beginning and obstacles are nearing
ashley so the people it s just the flu don't leave that point hospital capacity hospital capacity hospital capacity already numerous data points from a ram new york city italy china south korea numerous data points don't leave their points that's how you kill kill the rumour there is just a flu was you what austria is this a new normal offer novel virus response well maybe but again there's a gigantic wildcard here to gigantic wild cars one is how quickly can we make
kids and labs reckon you evaluate the task is how quickly can we build an emergency system for testing that's both product and system forgetting it tested and getting back you how quickly can we build that but once was built where we were we always have that as our emergency plan because the next time we have a flu in theory what we have learned from this one will allow us to dispel the lever and say i write in three days we can have you know a billion test gets or whenever this is the right now so i think the new normal so we won't will be ready for this war they say you're you're always ready to fight the last war and that's what businesses about this time i think but if you're or will we not be ready for the next round of virus what
we're going to know a lot about these aids malaria and tb malaria drugs this in promising will know about the erythema erthrew moisten cocktail will know about the ten other things in the pipeline will know about the vaccines so my guess is if i had if i had spent money on it it's the last corona virus scan if i had about money now if opel odds i'd say eighty percent there's only eighty percent chance you'll never see this again with with this form of the virus or something something in his family
because i think we will learn how to get it with tests and with nets and with vaccinations a year from now will be in good shape but will be recovered financially least somewhat well before the next question of falling questionable skip that were realignments for my densely urban areas more rural i've gotta wondering about this the out the just the pure practicality of it let's say you said hey new york city the only way we're gonna get to the other under their sisters hypothetical unjust just brainstorm here maybe somebody will have a good idea that's different from mine that is so
suppose you said in your city ay ay people if you have the capability to get out of the city get out of the city you don't have to you but if you can if you can find a place to pitch attend you can find somebody in the basket and even tested i suppose i would spread maybe that would spread the disease when never mind it's probably too late to do social distancing in terms of the city you live in your temporarily going to the country for a few weeks because i probably would just spread it at this point i would need an expert to two way that those options i just in heart asked this question the death rate in disaster sold to us as a justification for the shut down
i quickly collapsing does that matter just an i gotta check your ok you're in marketing and sales i don't wanna be unkind because i know you're a follower because you're here you follow me on twitter so just him an ever tried not to be a jerk about this anything else you just on the issues that you chose the graph of i guess what isn't the deaths they tell us we re going down down down through sanctions reductions didn't paramount what we make it just in the predictions didn't pan out yet and its because we're fledgling the if we are treated this is business as usual things would be very much worse so here's my region
nation to anybody who does not have some kind of a background in the decision making sciences so if you don't have a background in science engineering economics perhaps you could think of several others look the people do so sir joseph find somebody who's you know just somebody personally who's going through one of those fields and then show me a graph and say what what does that tell me i think they're gonna tell you what i told you which is that's the way it goes if we do everything right and that's the reason we're panicking is to get everybody to do something right so the
as you know were we're getting some kind of control on this should tell you that we should have done it doesn't make any sense i am trying to be kind about that but the people who did not have experience and decision making you really need to rely on people who literally learn those skills the sea can bite a name his covert nineteen videos that he's not in as his vp if they had female workers joke and by the way i do love you saw the violent campaign video was an expert talking about the corona virus instead of joe biden he didn't even introduce it
that that tells you everything you know about where joe is what whatever's happening is not good for joe and i think they just need to make the adult decision and find a real can later how much over capacity in supplies and equipment is right amount for future pandemics well unfortunately but he knows that question but i think the smell approach is to have a pipeline that can be quickly converted so all these factories that quickly converted into making masks and stuff they they can have a template now so there must be some kind of public information about how to make these mask is so i think the one thing is to know how to turn the pipeline on quickly not just having some in the emergency supply somebody said every three months lessons were right
we slow down the spread by how much i can answer that israel's choose to this that the krona viruses and intentional move to destroy the american economy and a single government new world order and a digital currency is there any interest to this now now there's not there's not let me let me say with complete certainly there's no government there would have done this intentionally egg it could have escaped accidentally from some government facility china but there's no way that a rational person and i think all the leaders of the countries who could do this would be rational no i know anybody rationally to this strategy utility announce the strategy is something you say if i do this is going to lead to this business
but but this has never nature this is just chaos and you know you could yourself maybe some anarchists to just wants to destroy the world or something but even then they be taken cravat there's there's literally zero zero zero evidence of anything but a very bad disaster that nobody nobody intended the sea but also go to your questions why is our government saying master work when it is obvious that the two basically just paraphrasing the and i think it's the same reason that fetch you saying that hydra chloric queen or hydroxide chloric queen difference but i think it's the same reason the government in saying that the meds are unknown in and usefulness
there are not really alone nobody really thought the mass didn't work so remember there's the two things ministers that there's the medical side and dealing with their emergency but there also dealing with our psychology so people like foul gi are very aware that if they say the wrong thing is gonna cause wrong actions so there is going to be a disconnect and i would expect more of it not alas i would expect more of this disconnect where the things are telling you do don't quite map with the things you know with certainty to be true as proud because the message has more to do about getting compliance in a way that gives to the end best i think it's a greater this is not one of those cases where i'd be nit picking the government hey you're lying to us because i believe there are productive lies there are productive lies
i've never told you that your government should tell you the truth for many situations is the preferred situation that you and your government to tell you the truth for many maybe ninety five per the time but there's a solid five percent of the situations where the public would simply be worse off with a little bit more reality sometimes you might need to manage the psychology of the mass hysteria they might take a little bit of sharing of the truth and maybe a circle back to the truth later one after this is done unfairly sir your expert say year we knew that wearing mask would help the public but we didn't have enough masks and i think that you're gonna hear some day
the experts say yeah we were sure a lot earlier than we said about this medicine or that being effective but we didn't want to come closer run on the supply i think that's what's goin on thoughts on candles owens is dance i don't know what it is about grown virus how do i choose a ok don't answer down due to two other ready doctors say this is an overreaction one question excellent question so for those who says an overreaction find a doctor who is working in an infected area who agrees with you just one just one doktor just like one doktor working at a hospital that's that's already seeing a bit of volume
and let that doctor tell the world that is not a problem i think you ve seen zero of that somebody's in the common something that your doktor durable mentioned correct me if i'm wrong but doktor drew has always been compatible with feta cheese recommendations that's the end of the story if you can find me a counter to that statement i am not aware of it but if i find the counter just just drop it just drop it if any any doktor anywhere in the united states who is talking about the corona virus what you're saying was compatible at the time with wife out she was saying and then they evolve without you you because remember felt she didn't say you we should close their place from europe on day one right i mean it while he was evolving as as information was coming so
if any other doctor evolving in the same way the number one expert in the country was evolving every based on the same page doktor wise when do you think the recovery process begins in terms of economy and containment well it's been so you counted the stock market will recover as soon as we we see that the trend is slowed or changing so soon ass a stock market notices that we're getting on top of it it's a leading indicator so that will be first and i think that this stock market will have some big updates and some big down days nowhere is going in general so i think that you can see maybe within two weeks
you gonna see another we ve already had a kind of a stock market boats but the two weeks if we get pause and news about the man's the stock market is gonna is gonna bounced back away and when it bounces back you want to stay there so you can see a wildly gyrating stock market they will respond to every every bit of new trend news though you you should assume that in some country they're gonna get under control and then we'll flare back and then the stock markets react but i think stock market was first you can see something they are beginning of a more up and down in two weeks when we know we have some visible the amount by the time we get tests gets widely available and you know i just can use my common sense unless i don't
cs having enough task is for a month even if we move heaven and earth cause i just seems harder i think we will have real knowledge about pills and availability and two weeks so i think is a two phased recovery phase one is getting pills at work and maybe in some cases young people so long as they live where there is access to the pills and its innocent efficient system to get him to i think i'll go back to work sir so we'll have something like a half recovery or three quarters recovery maybe in a month because those people went back to work will start getting things going about the end of the month i think you can see the testing come online hard
point where you see the beginnings of these sixty plus hers having given the jail card that started to form at that point it's gonna look like we have a clear path so those are two things the efficacy and safety and availability availabilities really high on the list but i think we can solve that of the pills the different kinds that we know work or i hope we know work and then the test gets so it's a phaser and i would say that you'll see people released from prison as soon as the pills are available for for them and yes to people here's my gun
i think in two weeks we're gonna get guidance about when will be released in two weeks within two weeks could be one week we'll get guidance which could change but i think the government will start to get to a position where they say here's where a plant is forming and you can't fault the government for not having a solid lamp because we're still gathering information but as i say we're looking at this this is our back to work date and we ve got a plan to feed people until then this little assiduously governments are saying you know we're going to aim for this this date to get this many people back to work you gonna feel like that the momentum changed because we ve been in retreat right every time there an announcement its retreat and were soon as that changes
two ok here's a retreat over here but we also made some progress over here and then this could be more progress in retreat i think in a month it's gonna be basically nonstop good news about human ingenuity yeah you can have your tesla ventilators you can have your pills you can have your task so month is the longest for the over sixty is i think i
somebody asked this question i don't know the answer was interesting question if you had to people one is of infected in one s symptoms coughing etc and one does not and they both ground public will say to different parts of the public which one would in fact more people someone who had no symptoms or someone who had obvious symptoms in public interest in question i think you're dependent early upon the nature of their public gathering isn't a restaurant or is it just a crowd or whatever but you could easily imagine that the person with no symptoms would take she were precautions and would be less easy to identify as someone to stay away from if you see somebody is nothing you're you're running hard the other direction if you see somebody is not coughing well maybe you think this is a one time you should shake hands so could go either way as good question
what are the actual real changes needed for health for healthcare independence from china mostly supply jane i think i think comes now that just making stuff here or making stuff i mean i can imagine that he didn't kill were mexico guess you close to the same degree of of cuts now you may save yourself now does mexico give you covered the answer is yes because if because our military which go in and take over those factories if if that if anything funny happened right so what we can do that with china china said we're gonna withhold your meds what we're gonna do we're gonna go without metz but of mexico said ha ha ha united states we're going to withhold you meds unless you do what we want well we have the the military would be marching across the border
surrounding the factory in about ten minutes so you don't have to move on to the united states but you need moved into the neighbourhood if you know what i mean in canada would be equally safe not for military reasons but because we're here we know we would work productively with them that would be a risk to do can't congress make april may rent and mortgage payments zero because the theory being those easier for the landlords and the banks to absorb the losses i i thought about that but i am not smart enough to connect all the chain of cause and effect so that there is appealing suggestion go like this if you're paying rent replant paying mortgage you just don't pay for two month period and then just starts when when things go back to normal that
i actually be a good idea if it's good enough like ever an economist wrestle with it and tell us because you know you ve and i know my own life i know people whose only income may be the several rental properties that they have so far the several rental properties those people do not pay rent means that at least one person it doesnt have an income that month so i urge you to have to do the math but rule it out for you machines or funny why is san francisco allowing chinese airlines resume flights to san francisco what what is that true san francisco is allowing chinese airlines resume placed the san francisco really
now i don't know about their story but have to assume that they have of course consider the risk and of course there must be maybe a quarantine or testing maybe maybe they're using some of their lit limited testing to test people run away before they send them into the public so i don't know about their story but its worrisome should they should they address or debunked the medium article at the pressure yeah you know some other i mentioned it through the medium article that was going round that's being pulled off or platforms for being grossly
grossly damaging i think because it is just not good information is not does not put together in a way that helping the public should the pressure debunk it maybe so maybe so i dont know that they need to mention by name but a gas so much attention maybe so i can show you the way but i think maybe so husband s wife he had used mass could be put in paper bag sit for a week until germs or dead be reused by same person i do no good question i've heard that if you put the germs in heat another joins the virus in heat and i've heard numbers who knows if this is right but
thirty three degrees for fifteen minutes today's row and would it would kill you just the second day just doing mop up in case some left but if you add a dry sauna and you took your used and badly infected mask and use put it in your dry sauna just ran nothing for a day would kill it don't try this at home because you could end up get yourself killed i'm not advising it but a man somebody saying fraser now i see in the comments and debunk so he hears lemme give you the common sense answer because i can't answer you cited scientists the common sense answer is there are a lot of doctors and scientists involved in this question i'm pretty sure they would have tried that
i'm pretty sure that we would know that but just in case just in case was less flow tat question there must be enough people on this periscope there's somebody has looked into that who has a scientific background and can tell us no no no scott you would either ruined the integrity of the mass that's possible or you would you dont want extremes just as the integrity of the mask would change and then just wouldn't be a mask or maybe they ve tested it and you just can't get rid of the virus and are now and we will then told that a virus doesn't live more than how many days or how many hours depending on the material so your husband's question is really kind of excellence and
his curiosity alone i'd like to know the answer to that somebody says google it can somebody do that one should google it for me and see if anybody's answer that question is a really good question but you have to think that with this many experts looking at a mask shore if all that easy i feel like we would have her that by now but you never know inevitable never thoughts on the krona virus affecting the cartel supply chain including sentinel well as many of you know this is kind of personal to me because my stepson died from an overdose including fence
and here i blame china for creating it and sending it to mexico in the mexican cartels furs selling it and of course i blame the mexican government for being essentially owned by the cartels now interesting side note felipe called around who is president of mexico two thousand sixty two thousand ten yesterday follows me on twitter i just noticed that the other dacres i think you'd like something i did and i thought i wonder if you follow me on twitter so the ex president mexico follow me on twitter and you you'd probably ask yourself well will that will that control the things you're willing to say well watch me the the government of mexico is clearly owned by the cartels surface
but it was not me now you know and by the way i'm not blaming felipe pulled run personally and to say that at the moment it's it's so obvious that we don't need any confirmation any reports on bessie massive ramping up of u s testing gear and stuff no no and that's that's exactly why we need a data visual leisure to be part of this looks like i'm running a little bit long and i'm getting and here why just freeze the stock maria you'd have desolately smarter i i don't know the pluses and minus that too what is the first to see that old decouple from china while the priority will be meds from a suitable utter north it'll be first but it will be certainly be the priority
when will we be able to open businesses i think we're talking a few weeks as in a month and maybe sooner for some selected businesses but it will be you'll be phased it's not i don't think there's even the slightest chance that you wait eighteen months to open your business so if you're worried about that no chance and i'll think there's the slightest chance things will be closed for a year i put both of those at zero because we're we're playing some brinkmanship we're not crazy brinkmanship as you take your economy right through the edge by you don't break it yeah you you stress it as much as you think you can but it's just to get a hold of the get a get on top of the virus but you don't break it if we're still
locked down a year from now were broken so what you can trust is everybody knows that that their calculation is top of mine for every person involved here so this reminds me a little bit of an old star trek episode where the captain captain kirk is asking the engineer chief engineer scotty cap scotty if he'll give him warp nine other conversation goes scotty gimme warp nine scudding goes i cannot give you one nine captain ship is only built for war we can't handle it will start little come apart at the seams and the capital gimme warm nine schedules aye aye aye captain and then scotty somehow makes it worse
so we're sort of trapped in a star trek episode in which the young the work drives are our economy and right now oh that economies sort of it nine in terms of your danger to the structure but we're not can i go to rub we're not gonna work ten because even captain kirk doesn't ask for a warped him but what you should expect is that on the atomic i'm stuff i'm sorry on the economic stuff how scared you are now you gotta be way more scared because doing the right thing and doing the wrong thing look exactly the same for a while so the right thing in the wrong thing will look like keeping the economy closed for a few more weeks right thing in the wrong thing or the same for those two weeks is what you do after that there is a difference between the right thing in the wrong thing
so we are not doing the wrong thing now for sure for sure because we're not gonna break the government i'm not gonna break the economy in a few weeks but if we're having this conversation a month then i have to ask yourself is scotty or captain kirk on there on the right side but there are a lot of adults in the room making those decisions and i think we'll be fine and i'll talk to you again later today not sure when but before you go to bed and i'll talk to you later
Transcript generated on 2020-03-31.