« Coffee With Scott Adams

Episode 870 Scott Adams: Simultaneous Swaddling and Good Thoughts Before Bed

2020-03-25 | 🔗

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a

Content:

  • President Trump says Easter…we have a date
  • Dr. Birx impressively notes a hardcore rule of management
  • Joe Biden video press conferences

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The post Episode 870 Scott Adams: Simultaneous Swaddling and Good Thoughts Before Bed appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
bump bump bump bump bump bump everybody come on in its time for the simultaneous one that's right swaddle yourself in the soft blanket you'll feel better it's a tense scary world out there are sometimes but we'll get through and we'll get ruin style is as we do it well the news is coming so fast variously i feel as if
i can feel up to four one hour periscopes every day because half a day goes by and there's so much new stuff this is mind boggling our remind you that there is one statistic that will tell you everything that needs to be known and that is the the death rate
next next few days the death rate of people were under sixty and otherwise healthy now of course you always have mysterious des people drop dead from all kinds of things and they could be young and you dont know why so it's not always gonna be because the virus kill them sometimes we just will now but here's what to look for look for the number of deaths to start carrying out even as the number of infections rises steeply and if that happens that means that there that they have some medical treatments that are working so look for that almost nothing else matters because the number of infections won't matter that much if the number of deaths could down in that would tell you were gone back to work they use
that you saw that president ciampi picked easter for he is projected sort of preliminary estimated data to at least some people back to work now what are people saying about that other than debating it some people are saying well maybe you should be longer people say well you know maybe it's too long but do you notice how much more comfortable everybody is though they may not admit it but having an actual date even if it changes even if it's just a stupid gas and nobody knows does make you feel better so i tell you that earlier today that the recently you want a certain date no matter how much of a guess it is is that people are happy when you given gases
this is something i learned when i was doing financial analysis back in my corporate days and a manager would come in some high level manager i was a low level person at the time and they say what's the estimate for the key one cap expenditure or whatever and i'd say no idea we don't have any data yet haven't even started collecting the we would just be a guess then the manager says what do you think and i'd say well those road matter what i think because i have no data upon which to go on don't even have a an estimate from prior years don't have anything to go on wooden now and then the manager says he couldn't needed number c say twenty five billion and the manager since like you re walks out these happy i don't know why
because under their situation you shouldn't leave happy because you didn't get any information i just made up an upper but he would still leave happy and i can replay this scene over and over and over again one of the most dependable psychological is that if you give somebody a number there happier even if they know is not accurate we're just built that way so the president did just that he gave us a number and i think it was brilliant honestly i don't think you'll get credit for how smart that is because he could have said it depends egotism without she said so foul cheetahs up there acting like a good doctor slash scientist but he doesn't have the leadership jean if you know what i mean
meaning that when he talks you say ok sounds credible in user like know what you're doing and i think you have our interests in mind and you a lot of good stuff but he's not a leader this it is not his job i mean i'm sure he's the leader among you know on his ask but he's not serve the leader in the way you president is where a general or something like that so felt she was trying to give us their well depends you were highly variable could happen by law and trump just said we shall make it is mine i make it but i make it easier for them i think i think trump let us look behind the curtain a little too much not that we want to figure this out but that it's a little bit obvious that they had an approximate zone and the president
at some point maybe someday suggested at first but if some the present realise the easter was in a general area and then it was just over what are the odds that this precedent would not have big easter as long as it was somewhere in the range of a reasonable gas now he was gonna pick easter its easter all day long and we have to admit it's it's free lobby is free money again because he he ties is brand new jesus and this i say it here is now saying these certainly not say anything like us he's now saying you compare me the jesus because i'm going to resurrect the economy of the the world on east now
the brilliancy those i have to say it because it's just sort of there and you cannot see it this whole areas at the same time is effective you don't want to work right if you save yourself i get it see what he's doing he's trying to make me think of jesus at the same time i think you have him because their balls were at yale somebody got resurrected in both cases and here you to say i i resist that association doesn't matter does a better there because the association does the association once you see it you answer that just because poor you code sulphuric isn't funny you of course that making sure we know it's easter then that is a beauty what i'm line as you speak yells a beautiful taiwan it is beautiful
she tried to run against them for president in which cases devastate is devastating because it is just so perfectly chosen so was it's done burke's if i sing or saying your name correctly she asked emphasised point i made this morning which is that the another hard core rule of management and a man it is important because we're trying to manage this virus of managed a country and manage the economy so so knowing how to manage stuff is pretty important and doktor burke's demonstrated that she has a deeper talent stack them maybe you guessed order background is but one here somebody issues a medical doctor right but when you scientists doktor which it wishes but here's the parlour was impressive
so when she was explaining the deadline it she said management truism that people respond to deadlines is is a way of focusing things people meet deadlines even if a random deadline we're just built that way give us a deadline and we're gonna work twice as hard and get that dumb and she pointed that is just the sort of a real the mole smart thing to do because people worth deadlines now it's not the sort of thing you hear doctors say normally which without checking maybe so they can jack law on here i have a suspicion that she has a deeper background than medical science possess very managers you know it's is something
when you hear from a medical person so much so picking the day is brilliant because it focuses us it makes us feel comfortable even if it's wrong in it will focus attention and i think i couldn't have been done better obviously i don't think the president could have handled this part better coming up with that timeline poor joe biden thing most of you see leave the videos thou worries try to do his little luck video studio thing and it's just very sad guess he seems confused and one point that a sentence that didn't make any sense and you know he's obviously just struggling up there's a fruitful for whatever reason maybe there's some production problems we don't know about maybe there's something
but he's fairly hard i just saw something the seti he cancelled his press conference for tuesday but that doesn't make sense it maybe it meant thursday because it was a current tweet i don't know why you would cancel yesterday's press conference so here's the thing it's pretty obvious at this point isn't it that everybody knows meaning that the democrats even the ones who support joe biden even the ones who love em they can see it now i don't think i'm going too far out on a limb are you always talk about the two movies you know you can only see around movie but i'll think that's the case here and i'll think so
it looks like they're seeing the same movie and just sort of there might be a little wishful thinking that is not as bad as we think or her baby is just having a bad day so i think the democrats are are pretty steeped in wishful thinking because i know they see it i think there's wishy goes away or fixes sulphur someone so i did what you gonna do about that obviously but here troms approval rating for just i guess the krona virus enough that sixty percent trump as a sixty percent and were were not anywhere near the end of it what happens if its november and we we reopen the economy wisely maybe there were some steps because of course it will be a big complicated thing full gases are getting
miss tebbs policy we get you know we write the ship every time we get off this november and we're not back to where we were but we're adding that way hard and p you say president trump it looks like you you gonna screw it but more importantly we also got to watch biden not be able to do every kind of live streaming video thing it was kind of pathetic so i think you took what a week to put up his studio let me let me give you an example of someone who is not a thousand years old solving the problem that joe biden took a week and his team took a week to solve i will do it in the character of a sea so i will be able to see and i just really is that i'm gonna be you can't leave the and i have to talk to the public
how will i solve that oh that's right it's in my hand maybe if you everybody i'm arc see we'd like to watch will eat some popcorn why talk about healthcare sixty five million views now you watch joe biden you can't even get that that much together now i'm exaggerating there's little bit more to what he's trying to do in his studio not much and they didn't have to wait let me just held up as phone and started talking worse for everybody else don't worry that's not grown so as we watch joe decomposing and looking helpless i would say helpless would be the word out used for what we ve seen so far he seems gotta helpless wouldn't you say are you watching the president during these years tour de force press conferences every single dave you're working on this point
moving heaven and earth the whole the whole world is coordinating and we're going to compare their minds to that weak little helpless joe biden and i came up with that a kill shot for joe biden it's not even a fair because you know the wind would be a kill shot at this point but i think this would be the tagline i would give him if i were running against them for president joe biden he's not good at things right then don't feel right joe biden he's not good at things because we wash them do try to do this home studio thing these clearly just not good at things there's nothing we see them do that you would say is good at i mean he kind of sorted held his own in a debate but
nobody was a very good at it right they just do you didn't fall apart that was the standard he had for the debates names of these good that he's actually not gonna thanks and when the first ivy europe you probably laughed so we probably laughed goes joe biden he's not gonna things scatters take years so at this point you know things will change between now and election day but if they didn't trump would win fifty states i mean at the book at this moment and they can you can't you kissed straight line you projection to so much will change between on election day but if you could hear yeah like forty eight fifty states something that i am still unhappy with the
visibility of our supply chain for critical stuff especially the people in the hospital staff in the ventilators and stuff and i and i dont know if it's because our government doesn't have a good handle on it or is because they're not gonna u explaining it i showed you the other day a graphic treats them so we can see how much is needed would be needed at peak of each piece of equipment and then you know how much we have this week and what we expected now again these don't have to be accurate numbers they just have to be the governments best on standing so there were at least used as up to date as the government because if you feel play the government no stuff in you don't you wondering what's was supported those two our press conferences here the prescott
and starts and i have one question usually tell us about the supply line ok that's a data you gave you some data we got x number mass coming compared to what by when how many more do we need how many more are in the pipeline or are they all good is anything wrong with the bible so all of the pipeline questions for each of the items from mastered the gloves to counter to eventually theirs i get raw numbers but they don't make me feel good because i don't know new york city got four thousand ventilators now to my mind i say what sells pretty good right four thousand that seems very good but how many of you think they'll need and because all those rensselaers went to the hot spot they're not bilbil for the rest of the country so
say the task force is doing a we'll just have fled ailing job communicating clearly in a way that the public understands the supply chain that it's possible that they don't want to communicate clearly he always after all that the possibility that the government me baby don't want you to know too many of the details because maybe it's not working as well as we want maybe there's some reason we should now but i don't think there's a reason and we could probably help if there's some part of that supply chain and these are the bush so that's that's the biggest need i think for the task forces to improve that specific communication about the supply chain for the ppp
interestingly when tromp was asked about congress decker taken around on the bill and not getting it done what do you have expected trumpet do just unload on policy and she were now i think he did before but he didn't do you know that was it was kind of conspicuous that seem like he had decided that being bipartisan at least today he decided to being by partisan was the stronger play completely right i believe i think you can rely on other members of congress and social media to put a lot of pressure on the people were not getting a done by the way did you see did you see marquis cubans tweet i retweeted it and basically just screamed and gaps dear to your f and jobs
twitter something showing that congress wasn't getting it down and i i boost to their signal as well because this is not by partisan i mean i'm sorry is is not even it's not even just a partisan problem is just ranking competence and not caring about the public this is old different level of you gonna fire people if they keep asking that way so there is some indication by the end of the day that the markets like that the sum indication that maybe something good eleven we shall see so start morgana good day anybody if anybody wasn't already in the stock market that you wish you were today
where else we're going on i was wondering if you could ever social distancing hap their word since somebody by wifi their distance and just beep when you too close to somebody who if they could ever be thing and we look at your questions because i asked questions erika says periscope wedding well you know i just want to see how things have things go it's not my first choice is a fun i the air but is it is a private thing so probably won't be live streaming that that david says how's your friend whose recovering from the covert nineteen virus the answer is one hundred percent as of today just several days after being treated with the good stuff these under present and using pretty bad shape before that wasn't hospitalized but use
hope you sort of getting close to that borderline where maybe hospitalization would be in the conversation but didn't get there who has the most power in the usa since the media or the government as a whole interesting thing it depends in japan on the other the government has the power when the people don't care so anything that the people especially care about the details of the government has all the power is were dont care but if the citizens care than they are stronger than the media and there are stronger than the government
but most of the day is the media is probably wagging the government in and wagging the citizens to but i will say a situation like this this is provings happen when the democrats through all the pork and the bill and the republican said nope i think it's the public that made that change no you i feel the public the power and just twisted the arms of the government and said here this is this is a normal sausage making this is an emergency not this time and do you think airlines shutting down domestic flights will be good for fighting the outbreak i don't know why it wouldn't be i mean i wouldn't put a percentage on it but yeah of course anything that reduces travel should reduce the spread
what you do we know about other treatments i don't don't know too much about those we be doing a national scale plan for temperature checks public transportation i would refer to the experts on that because i heard i thought i fuck you you say the sort of a weak process meaning that there are so many people were now symptomatic a new window sir i've never fever the you're hardly ever gonna catch anybody who has it too didn't know about it the sword like if you have a fever you're probably not go now because you know what the scores of this point and if you don't have the fever it's not going to catch it so they're just me this weird little range where your fever just start but maybe you are quite aware of them and it was because of the new cove it so you not catching much
but to listen to the experts to see if its evil worthwhile and all you know i firmly that at least some of the steps the government does are for the psychology and the comfort of the people here i can't believe that sprang the streets in warm made a difference because the other germ doesn't leave too well outside in the first place relative to other places did you see here joe biden sneezing into it and this is for the oppressive and jake tapir bustling about it is like a shot of you you tell us the stairs and hear your elbow but he just stevens your hand and ngo didn't i haven't answered tat he was so sad to say
about bumper feeling so down and keep crying today are so cindy says that the union this why appears in the swarming gets you won't like it looks like in your profile picture you gotta guy there did you guy get a blanket do some serious spooning i'm here to tell you that we got us i believe this week will be the weirdest weak because will have horrendous news about new people who are having health problems of one sort or another even die we can hear lot of it this way
you two year horror stories about the economy etc but we do have a plan now subject to change but the the easter date is a gigantic thing and i think the stock market is responding quite rationally in this case the stock work it is not always rational today was very rational i think you're gonna have good news about treatments and i think you have good news about tests availability in i think you're gonna have good news about some people getting back to work so silly relax we got this who is actually nothing they can go terribly wrong at this point so let me let me round that by saying i don't think the risk of the entire economy falling apart is even a little behind
if i'm being honest you know i gotta degree in economics and i've been around for a while and i've been through a lot of cycles of world doomed to find out nothing of the sort so if you ve been through enough cycles in sending you look young she hasn't been through enough these this is very familiar territory for a lot of us different situations but the same feeling of general alarm but this one is the least alarming of them all after nine eleven i have to admit it was scary because you didn't know if it was gonna happen again and where and all that but this one has more of a defined beginning and end and and there isn't any chance that the whole economy is gonna fall apart into depression before we get back to work i think there's any chance because we're really clever all the assets are there we
just after to re inhabit them when the time is come will find clever ways to do things out no worse with the windows open with masks and we're gonna be good is is capitalism dead well we're we're devil you betraying some socialism so that will be interested in how it changes the way people think about it the others a locust plague in africa right now and ill somebody saying that a reasonably small ever would would be a big deal sure that's true but i just don't know anything is you get any oxygen accept this for now unfortunately
since mortgage payments have been suspended should run payments be i don't know the details that are working payments being suspended but i would agree with you they should be what can we simultaneously with you know even simultaneously swaddle there's no sitting today will the u s end up penalizing american companies for continuing to do business in china or russia for those who lose their business back well i guess it depends what you read by penalized there's gotta be a lot of pressure the government can put a lot of pressure on your love different ways i wouldn't be surprised i wouldn't be surprised if there is to be some kind of baby tax pressure or something to make ardor do business the essays could happen top tips for staying positive and what skills to build when quarantined number one
no i dont get started an element in south korea so tips say positive well i say i've said them often under worth repeating and by the way are you noticing that a lot of your actual professionals and people who know what you're talking about are are say what i didn't say from the start which is taken nice long walk and don't exhaust yourself because this could hear good for mental health but also good fear immune system so you don't wanna exercise too much but you gotta get you're gonna walk in everyday get it gives them air make you feel gets less number one i've tried it both ways i've tried it taken a walk and not taken walk
big difference in my mental and physical state the walk or really really helps the other thing we need to do is make sure enough sleep gerasa tv dont check your social media for at least periods of a day doesn't have to be all day things are happening quickly i think it is good to be too din i don't like to go to much more than an hour without checking news at the moment but here's use my best advice if you watching this paris it is partly because you ve been watching me for a while most most of you are not doing that around while and you know that i'm pretty good at predicting things and you ve watched with this i was literally i think i was the first person to say closed the flights think jack bizarre back was talking about closing borders even before i did but very very early on that
so early calling that donald trump would become president end i was early saying that he would probably beat and have something productive happened with north korea that's a long ways wasteful but i would like you to agree that something good sir i thought the president would be good at negotiating trade deals and i told you that the trade war with china would end up ok so if you look at my entire body of predictions you should have some comfort that if i tell you things are looking like they're turning round pretty quickly and that our economy will be back fully at some point but i would say the odds of something like a depression zero just sit
just not love because we don't have any of the elements that would make that a case people will be back to work in a month and a month you can you can put up with anything for a month so you should trust me that it looks like we're a friendship i will also tell you might know more than you do
say more about that i'm just gonna say if you ve ever believe me about anything believe this things are going to be very good now it's gonna be tough week has now roses there will be death there will be there will be paid there will be lots of economic disruption and some of them will affect all of us some more than others that's all going to happen but there is a time certain when things turn the other way we're getting ready to go on orphans and you can judge the war before one team started
fight i move were purely in a strategic retreat and divide and conquer all very small things but while we're doing this were building weapons tests gets processes procedures we get smarter were making work were building new supply lives for for protective gear were testing methods vessels and we ve ever tougher tested before were putting vaccines together we're getting data what will probably i maginnis employ will have serum serum therapy we can get the blood of somebody's or the serum from the blood of somebody who has recovered this is all going to happen really quickly and then we're going to be an offense so you're all going to be fine all right
does yang have a place on trumps taskforce well you know i would say yes as a consultant it is hard to form teams of people they don't you not comfortable either on the other team or something but certainly as you're a smart real i will personally i would want his opinion to be part of anything of this nature yes how best to encourage an elderly relatives who lives alone in another town well contact but video contact the them in thing i think you're elderly relative leaves is lots of contact especially if they can't leave the house so if they do not stay in the pretty darn safe as long as they stay away from people
question can highquality hypo allergenic vacuum bags be reported as masks emergency when they be better than the current ban then i do not know but among the questions i would ask is is re kind of fibre there that's given jump off in your lungs and allowed the first thing i ask but i have no idea i dont imagine that a vacuum bag would be engineered to those speck
oh somebody else's there's an expert study that implies yes if you double up with an outer wraps such as the scarf somebody s about just in march but i don't know why his proposals on why not continue the quarantine for the elderly and secondly i think that's what's gonna happen
what do you like your hot dog i dont the dogs ways left so heartless to business sounds like a joke first industry to decouple should be farmer of course where's your rocking where's your rocking chair all of you people watching in only one of you got joke so steve l l congratulations you the only one who got the joke why would the governor new nevada a ban the malaria drugs i don't know anything about that he ban them then that's about
does it seem the people care more about reelection than the best solution of the country yes some of them tips on lowering the stress or anxiety of family and friends during this time while the main tip for lowering somebody else's anxiety is the one on modeling right now if you can't get yourself you're not gonna come everybody else down so so job number one and this is the caesar the dog whisper here the way you train your dog is to train yourself because you dog is influenced by your dude what i'm angry and was well get new manner something in the office your some trivial thing or power
my dog will actually leave the house my dog snickers actually won't be in the house with me when i'm in a bad mood i should leave the house as i like i'd be my dog or anything she just care be around a negative attitude she will have it seriously this house gives us in the back for a while she's got room mood or their serve you wanna get your ear relatives to come down starts with you and you don't have to come with a real come attitude and you're gonna have to show some knowledge cuz if you don't know more than i do you're not going to be able to calm them down so you got to be smarter and more well informed you got to be relaxed got to keep them in for and remind them that the main things out remind people is that the economy is not broken there is really not literally just took some time off all the assets are still there was just repopulating
mrs we can so the economy is gonna be fine relative to depression that there will be some kind of mild recession they won't last long then in terms of health staying away from social contact they should be fine but i said before the watch the death rate and next time days rizzo say that as i think that drugs are clearer queen and zest formation and zinc combo is being tested probably people are already using it serve you look new york city and you see the death rate just just start plummeting it means are starting to use the dragons working if it doesn't if the death rate in new york doesn't start going down pretty quickly you no matter what the rate of infection is well then i'll be worried until that happens on outward
i know that asylum measure to protect the malaria drugs from hoarding that makes more sense it makes more sense that there were protecting a scarce resource my sister's raging at my cousin violating quarantine rules who do we persuade well i dont know if anybody can persuade elderly people we reached a certain age and just nobody can persuade you anything so if there afraid what are you ill because fear the only thing that would make people stop in people have different reactions to scary things those they're just not afraid what's gonna stop
now the way i would go is to say you know you're you're not a patriot so you probably want to find out what your relatives hot but this is everybody's so let's say you knew your relatives were very patriotic that's that's the pet that's the path i'd take i'd say you know i know you don't think you're going to get it and i know you don't even care if you die but you are just not being a patriot because the whole point is you don't want to get out there and get it and give it to somebody you know did only people you could kill personally do the math if if my dad if you get it you're probably going to give it to some family members and lets say their fine in most cases they'll just recovered we'll be fine but statistically speaking because spreading so fast you gotta give it to two and a half people in it
them is going to give it to tuna people when each of them chances are any one person who violates the quarantine and actually get infected just that one person could killed dozens right unless the the wild card is if we get some meds they can really stop it in his tracks but this boy one person violating a a curfew is taking and expected value chance of killing people more than one person because the number of people who could be effective just by one faction
so so depending on the person you either wanna go for patriotism you wanna go for fear because as i said we have here but maybe you can give the more information until they did here it is do you wanna scary scare people and to stay home find an article from nurses who are dealing with people as they die from this not gonna give you details but let's just let me say that of all the ways you could die i don't know i've heard of a worse one except maybe being on fire of all the ways you can die being on fire would be pretty bad but dying for this is pretty bad too so if you want to scare somebody just guess i'm not even if they give you the details but is that the last hours or pretty darn ugly so stay with them stay away from people
what does your i can always to be you say about unlimited quantitative easing says there's nothing on limited so everything's limited did i talk about nevada yeah i just don't know too much about that except there probably protecting from hoarding right you can have fifty six thousand people infected through one infection well it's more than that because every person on earth whose infected came from one person think about the everybody on earth whose infected started with one person serve you ask yourself how many people could you personally kill if you get it and spread it how many people died so far
what's the total worldwide death count tens of thousands so you can actually be responsible for killing tens of thousands of people that's not even joe said there's just math number here you're coming spray pray always stuff will you ever leave your house again well let me tell you a little story so just before i get periscope i decided to check my mailbox so walked down the hill to my mailbox if they had been raving all day now this is important to the store the reigning all day so as a walking round to the mailbox i see under a bush a package a cardboard box that apparently
shipping company you everywhere were delivered it instead of taking it to my door which would be standard they threw it under a bushel my long it's a car more box than has been sitting in the raid all day i thought to myself well you know it's probably some canned goods and there is something of a plastic yes i like it's not like whatever is in there is clearly no silly hurt this is always a package with within the box ring but as i approach it i can see that the construction of the box has really taken we hear from the rain and starting to break down and looked through a corner of it and its paper goods and i thought i think it's toilet paper because i think christie that you just before you couldn't get anything she got it nor
and it was like you two weeks to deliver this was it and i can see is recording like now so time stood though as i ran to the bush tried to scoop up the melting wet box there had paper towels in it as it turns out not now toilet issues but they weren't wrapped in anything they were just in the cardboard box that i pick it up trying to hold the box together as its is melting in my hands it's almost liquid if i drop any these precious roles of paper dolls i dont know if all ever see another paper doll and if they have the ground is gonna be rowan because that's warp and rating all day and i'm trying coming up my driveway trying to train the plug the holes as is falling apart the integrity of the box is falling and unlike others there's gonna be a nightmare i go running
is my garage into the dry garage floor and the whole box just disintegrated fell apart and just component parts and just fell to the ground and the and the and the the towels inside you fell on the ground mostly dry but a little bit wet a little bit on the corners but mostly dry so i saved my beloved paper towels but there's a punch line too i told you they christina order them when almost everything was already saw them so i got my paper tell us but i dont know what country these were created in because my normal paper towel some kind of kobe softer papery feel to it
whoever bay these paper towels did now spent much time converting from tree to paper towel oral there was still pretty close to a tree i don't know if i could even unwrapped the the sheets the like little plywood wrapped around a core so your eyes quality paper goods is one side anyway talk to somebody in southern california you went to a close go down there and they had paper dolls and they had your water i think that toilet paper but you are limited by quantity so as soon as the big stores learned to limit by quantity to procrastinate now should be the end of the the shortage so i think that's going to come to the end and maybe one week my best guess that's often out and i'll see you in the morning live now
Transcript generated on 2020-03-30.