« Coffee With Scott Adams

Episode 891 Scott Adams: Sip and Learn

2020-04-05 | 🔗

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a

 

 

Content:

  • Listen to scientists, the WHO and other experts?
  • Cell phone location tracking for disease control
  • Fired Navy captain protecting his crew?
  • Checklist to Identify who is safest for return to work
  • The Daily Show misleading compilation clip mocking FOX News

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The post Episode 891 Scott Adams: Sip and Learn appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Bump bump bump bump bump everybody. Now I m J J. Now is one of my favorite places in the world the tires and fill and the rest of you money. It's time for coffee was caught Arabs. Yes, it's the simultaneous shelter in place. Thank you for that suggestion, Quinn and today, we're going to enjoy the simultaneous happened, doesn't require a lot of preparation. Thrilling us all. You need is a government or a glass at anchor gels restyle again to drink of last a vessel of any kind and fill it with a favor liquid. I like off
And join me now for the unparalleled pleasure, the dopamine even the day, the thing that makes everything, including the pandemic, so much better, it's called the simultaneous go. I can feel the death rates falling This is all over. The world were started well, some stuff I say again, you quote from Joe Biden the says quote: we it leaves the way was science, so use criticising the president in saying that we'd be better off. If we listen to science, a little bit more Science told us that face mass, don't work. The virus cannot be transferred from animals from human to human. And there's no reason to close travel from China. So
One is the lesson here exactly: should we listen to experts, because, certainly you have to listen to some of the experts. It's not as if the wrong about all things all the time, and they only have to be right once if you listen to your dad so we're inside of a tough bind here,
we imagine how the world would look different if everything that the scientists and the experts are told us had turned out to be right on just everything they they suggest was right on what what would that mean for less a climate change? Just imagine if we go into this experience in we're still going through it, but we can already determined that when we get to the end of it, we're not gonna, be trusting experts as much as you might like, because the experts failed us in spectacular fashion. I mean really in the
people make lists of how experts veiled us as a public? This is gonna, be in the top three right. No, no matter what happens, the weather is as big as the experts said or not, as big was already happened, especially with the face nurse cling. I mean there was that was so damaging. I mean to the whole scientific trust situation, so I think what we found is that Experts know the answer, even as they know the right answer. You can't trust them to tell you the right answer: gazettes, what we learned.
Because they might be managing other requirements they might be, they may have some loyalty to another country. Let's say China, they might be politicians, they might be paid off by some industry. They may be trying to prevent hoarding. They might be trying to manager expected, nations they might be tried to banish their career because they don't want to be wrong. It's worse to be wrong, or is it's ok to be wrong? but you don't wanna, be rather than the other direction. So you can imagine a whole bunch of reasons why the experts would know the right answer, but not tell you
That's an extra risk is not as easy as listen to the experts cause. You don't know if they are the same incentive. You do you don't know if you're talking to the right experts, certainly I think we can conclude that before this krona virus stuff, most people, I think, would have expected the World Health Organization to be credible. Experts but I didn't know anything about them. But if you would send to me, though, there's a worldwide organization, it's called the World Health Organization and here's their mission. I would have said you can trust those guys I mean when you obviously there working for a world health. Obviously there have experts they're, not going to say things that other experts disagree with it, none public anyway. Why wouldn't you? Why? Wouldn't you trust the World Health organization? But, of course it is.
That's just lying completely. We don't know what they knew or didn't know, but we know that they gave us bad information. So I think, if you're a proponent of the green new deal and you're trying to convince people that the scientists and the experts got it right and that there is a massive risk For climate change, independent of whether there is or is not a massive risk, you we'd not experts have to trust the experts, but can we I mean, after with this, with us experience fresh in your mind. Would you trust the climate change expert now their different domains, indifferent, yo, different levels of evidence and one has
decades of research and one was sir, the fog of war or new things. I don't say there even comparable, but I'm just talk about the psychology of the public. Is the psychology of the public such There were gonna believe whatever the next experts tell us, Our who those experts are no matter. What the domain is, I think, were, I think, we're kindest spoiled right, I think we got a little bit ruined in terms of our trust of experts by this experience and that's got to bleed over into other categories, there's no way that that doesn't influence how you think about the next thing. Alright,. I have so years women little on the toilet paper shortage and I have a solution for it s right. I have a solution for the toilet paper shortage. I rent.
Goes like this. So the first thing- and this was a good insight- and I dont know wired and think of this myself, but it's so obvious what year formal world people are. The bathrooms at work and their use in the bathrooms at home. It turns out that the suppliers of toilet paper are different for the industrial market. Where you get this really bad toilet paper, goes in the stalls at work versus the home market, whereas a little more upscale and you so that different manufactures we're different supply chains that what happened was a lot of people went from one of those supply chain. The other by staying home so what's happening, is that is now one supply chain for toilet paper. There are two separate once one for the industrial market, one from the home market and the industrial market presumably has plenty of capacity because fewer people are going to work, but
fill in for the other market, so that they can just flippin overruns now just ship into grocery store. This not even the same kind of toilet paper doesn't fit the same rules and stuff. So so that's one of the problems, but that said, I believe I could still fix it in here now. Bear with me now now. If you knew my periscopes, I should warn you if not to take anything. I say to seriously so if anybody. No, don't tell me to seriously the rest of you know. What's coming so here's how I would solve it, and it goes like this- Presumably there are people have extra toilet paper right That's what hoarding is so there's some people have way too much. And there are some people who didn't get enough Would you normally solve that we'll normal
you saw that- was some kind of a market system where the people are know they got too much, could sell it at a mark up or a profit to people who didn't get it And then in overtime would solve itself, because if that market became efficient than the people who had too much Wouldn't worry about selling alone benefit, because I can always buy back worst case scenario. They sell it into the free market. Later they have to buy back. Maybe they pay a few extra box, but they get the toilet paper.
So if you had a market for people for individuals, selling toilet paper and if that market were efficient, which is the big, that's third part you're, getting everybody to agree that it is a real market, no really sullen sell stuff, and so here is my suggestion. Somebody says: he's a cartoonist cartoonists with a degree in economics and an mba in sixteen years of financial experience and modern corporate Amerika. But if you like to say just a cartoonist, that's fine too! So here's my suggestion to create a market for toilet paper, consumer to consumer using too
perhaps that already exist and are free, so it's nothing is to be invented. There are two aspects that could create this market today and the free you can download him now, nobody s doing, but here's the trick. You know how crypto currencies or kind of worth nothing at the moment, because it sends a value, but a lot of the lesser crypto currencies they just sort of became vanishingly small well in order to have a good currency, it would be ideal have backed with some physical good. Some people say that the dollar was better when it was backed by gold, but at least the doll. We're still backed by the faith of the governments and the government will always accepted for taxes. So as long as your currency is backed by something it can maintain its value, its crypto currency, this not backed by anything but psychology. The can,
severe. So here's the suggestion, my crypto currency, for my start up when the scope, the when W h e and so it exists- and you can and I decided that I'm going to back it where the physical world. So from this point on one when it is equal to one role of standard toilet paper,. Now it only works. If everybody agreed agrees is true, the moment everybody says now I just don't like that. Doesnt work. If everybody agreed that one when he called one toilet paper, then you could train But suppose you don't want to train encrypted currencies. You want to trade and money, I still got you covered, so here's what you could do you could go on the interface by one, her back, that's one might start. It makes
and you could be any kind of an expert, but you don't have to be an expert. You can go into the app and say your job description is hashtag toilet paper and then players of good. I'm just brainstorming here: none of this is really practical. So don't don't worry about is actually happening just stay here through right, she's, the interface by one hub up and you can put in your zip code and toilet paper somebody who needs toilet paper in your zip code so that there's no shipping class somebody you can do you can just driving overrun liver. Seventy years, if God has just call him up on the up and say hey I saw your toilet paper. How much is it was a twenty bucks, a mark up twenty bucks museum can you leave it on my front doorstep, and I will
I'll pay you through the up, because the outlets you tube serves the guy says it's twenty bucks, because they are seldom twenty bucks rates of the Epp and it could be cash or it could be crypto currency just get to choose now. There's another app, also free in which you can watch the deliver on a map, sir, was the guy, says: ok I'll break over and leave it on your front door. And I'll. Send you a link, you can watch me DR over, so you don't have to worry about city stealing it Leah once left on the doorstep. Is you don't want to touch him right, social distancing, so the other app is called approach is also in the stores, its also free, and you could, if you wanted, you could add your name to the app that's five bucks a month, but you will have to see just use it for free. So you make your deal on the interface by when her back, and you say when its delivery
all type uses the app for your toilet paper and I'll be able to watch you on a map as you're coming to my house, so that I'll know when it's there and you know I'll- be able to take it in without somebody stealing. It. One when it is equal. One roller toilet paper now is not currently worth that, but all we'd have to do is agreed that it does, You simply would have to all agree that you just agree. There is equal. This end. It is it's completely a psychological phenomenon, so if you want to solve the toilet paper crisis one when because one toilet paper or just created a market that uses regular money.
And use any kind of that you don't have to use my appetite. You could use then move, but what does the interface by when her that allows you to discover if you use them now, you're not gonna, be able to find somebody to pay. You you'd have to send out find them another way. But if you use my up, people can just put in their zip code and toilet paper is just search for that way, and you like that, there's this guy three blocks away and that will sell me a roll. I'm not terribly serious about that, but I am serious about the fact that a few created a market if you created inefficient market You solve tomorrow, and it would also open up the possibility that your workplace could sell their extra toilet paper, because the workplace Market isn't really impacted because as a different chain, so you can just create a market for buying the toilet paper from companies have too much
and somebody could just go in Zaire. I'm not selling a product today, but also you my toys paper, not use it enough. So a barely there are companies that do have access to your phone locations depends which they're using for that has some of your apps already you ve, given its approval to track your location, so there. Third parties. It can get their randomized information, they can tell us you, but they can tell them somebody's around there. I guess they the they could track all the phones that went to spring break and then they could track them ass. They left spring Breakin went back and in fact in the rest of the country, and so that technologies really got some future. My guess is that by the time we have in the next band Emmett that it will be apt to tell you when you close to people,
An apps that will tell you who you connected with recently, so they can do contact racing. So I think I think you're following will be your primary virus healthcare device by the time the next pandemic rules around Apparently, Russia's already using their public cameras and facial recognition to bust people for not socially isolating so that technology I expect, will be much more robust by the next bend them do so you can actually get to the point with existing technology. You just you just have to decide to use it basically, because we already have facial recognition, cameras and phones. Is you just have to decide to use it, but if you dad
probably solve a pandemic without drugs. Right. If you knew everything about everybody's location, you knew hoo hoo, who exactly like exactly who was next to and when. I think you don't even need drugs. I think you just whoa pandemic we just found tender. Some people that some kind of association you ten thousand you gonna steal for two weeks- is over. You just carve out those big area insane We know exactly what is happening there. You just stay away from these people and maybe oversimplifying, but in theory you could solve it with just information and no drugs. So we need other story about the. The Navy
captain who wrote the memo and showed it to too many people about his crew not being sufficiently protected from kroner virus. And the Navy fired him. So the firing offence was that he took his communication outside the year that the naval appropriate chain of command- and I agree with that- I have to say you emotionally. I agree with the captain who was just trying to protect his ship, but there is something to be said for the rule of order in the military and he violation it quite grossly, and that was the obvious. Welcome now do
airport about it. As much later pointed out- and I didn't even catch priceless under the video of the crew of the ship gathering en masse to clap and ensure the captain after he had left the ship, but here's the thing they the entire issue was about the people in the ship being exposed to the growth of virus and not being safe, and the captain who gets fired for bringing up this issue becomes the. Focal reason that everybody in the ship gathered in a large confine space shoulder to shoulder and probably killed. If you use statistically speed, so there's story within the story about what the hell is going wrong with his ship and if the captain was ok with every
meeting in a large, tight group to say goodbye to him, then maybe he needed to be fired because it seems to me that way he should have been doing even ass. He was actually in the ship. Say well, oh get out of this crowd. The whole point is on trying to protect. You idiots how about not standing in a tight crowd. To wish me good luck, because that's the opposite of what I got fired for I'm trying to protect. You don't stand in a big crowd to wish me well sue weird. Can you calculate for me or can anybody based on what we know already now, maybe you and I can calculate, but I think this can be calculated:
I'll be with you numbers that subject change, but I tweeted this earlier. Can you calculate the core, poorer krona virus risk of death for the following? some thirty five year old american Non smoker average wait, not overweight, underweight no known underlying health conditions, practices, social distancing wears a face. Mass, It needs to work alone and lets say as some space at work to also socially distance. And listen to that person doesn't heavily vulnerable people living in the house that they go back to. What are the odds of a death happening, because this guy this person goes back to work? Can we calculate ass its way back? Sorry, I'm lookin weird
it seems to me that we should be able to calculate that right and what would that be and then who gets to decide if that risk is acceptable, is that the government at this point. Yes, so I would like to see their calculation made first of all, because one I tell you over and over and over again. The things which are not measured are not managed so for trying to manage this crisis, but we can measure the individual risk of this kind of person versus the scan prison. Then we're not managing. So if we are met, Jane, I think the task force should be able to say at some point. Maybe it's a little premature. Be able to say look, we ve calculated the risk, and if you fall into this category, you're fine go back to work, will will monitor it. Maybe we'll try.
You're one metro area first, or something like that so I did a first draft, so I tweeted this round you can see this is fresh at the top of my twitter feed. I know you can see here, but just sense of what it it is as a true. This is my first draft To get the ball rolling enters a well, we need so, as I told you a million times, the corona virus situation is a participation. Sport you're, not a spectator, says there's any idea. You have anything you can do anything. You can do to make people safer better go. Do it don't wait around for somebody to tell you it's your job, it's your job! If you can do it, it's your job emergency
So was things that I am especially good at, if I do say so myself, because I have a lifetime of practice, is simplifying complicated stuff. If, if I've said this before but If there's one thing that I have a skill in the actually is above average to the average person. I have a whole bunch of skills, they're just sort of pretty good, but not world class, and I don't draw better than. Great drawers or anything, but I think I might have one skill. There is a little bit especial meaning there. That wouldn't be many people in a group of a thousand. Who could do this better than I could do it, and that is simplifying. Block everything and love ass. You do with the fact that it has been my full time job for forty years.
Is because my day job, I used to simplify financial analyses for management, so I was always company simplifying complicate things and then, of course, as To this end as another, that is mostly about simplification to So I thought I would use my special skills to simplify the question of how to get people back to work, and so here that years, the checklist, So is some of the nub knows next him that some areas, if, as I know, next to it means you can't go back to work yet less in the first phase. So all of these would mean you could not go back to work. So anything on this list means you're, not the first phase, but going back to her if you're over sixty and female or over fifty and man. Now the differences that males have a much greater risk.
And an age is a factor. So these two would have similar risk. It when over sixty would have roughly and again this is a first draft. I would need an expert to tell me you had a tweet this exactly what, if you're a woman you over sixty, you're in the high risk group, but if you're a male and moreover fifty you are already starting to get into the high risk as men have virus, so if you ever section female or over fifty a male stay home and first one? if you ve got diabetes your smoker or an Ex smokers, guy protection, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic rest Tori Disease or cancer. That's not for remission. I think there's a difference right. I think if you have cancer verses cancer survive there's gotta be a different sir. So if you have any of those conditions,
I will be no, you can't go back to work, but then I some more things that are more about your situation, so the First ones are more about who you are and then the second group is about your situation. So if you need public transportation to commute, maybe you don't get to go in the first phase, so in other words, if you walk to work right, your bike were drive your car by yourself, then that would be considered. Ok, but if he had give her the crowded transport, maybe not in the first phase- is ready, vulnerable living with you if you come home from work and brings, whether it is really very vulnerable and all that your house, if not maybe you're, ok Is re region? You can't wear a face. Mascot worked, I can't think of a situation, but there must be where, for some reason, you can't wear a face mask on what that would be, but the. So, if you can that's good
Kids, maybe not the first phase and then the other would be if the hospitals near you or act capacity. So if you're in an area where you're hospitals are still look like they're, not gonna, be slam too hard, thou be factors well and then to do things would allow you to go back to work for sure as if he had confirmed antibodies. Maybe after get tested twice again. This is what the experts would tweak. What say you ve got confirmed. Anti bodies and I ve been tested twice unless there's x number days gone by so then you're fine does metal. What else is true? You're, fine or if you have essential services, slowly, the other factors, so it really comes as a one page there, you could put other website or something any view that people say our aid under
under the threat of jailing for perjury. I fill out my form if it's a no, but I think it shouldn't be. I should be able to shop and save with a actors note so, for example, will say the checklist said: hypertension. But I got my doctors say: look I've guy pretension, but it's like just barely and I'm thirty five in everything. He's good. Just barely have a little hypertension while the doktor might say. Ok, the hell? You know the rest. It is a little more risk, but now much I'm going to prove it. So you need some mechanism. For a doctor to override the checklist for though the grey areas. But that's my plan,
so I would like to see the administration come up with something. Similarly simple, it doesn't. Oh yes, somebody in the common says I do not have the Mai, and that is just oversights. I'm gonna fix that republish it yes, so wait wait as the other vacuum body mass index. So thank you for that. That is exactly. Why put it up as a draft so that you could do that. Somebody says too complicated. Why don't think a checklist is complicated because it's just yes? No do you? Have condition, yes or no. I don't think you can get easier that you don't have to do any research, the there's theirs
human beings who could answer this easily just by looking at it, you don't have to go talk to a doctor. You have to do anything. Do I have diabetes yes or no session. Yes, your location is important, but primarily here, actually that's true. So if it's a hot spot or not, I don't know you define that I'll, add that to I was going to say that you could have that cover to buy how much impact the hospitals have, but that's probably another variable. You know you want the hospitals to not be impacted, but also not to be a hotspot. Ideally so the daily show that around a clever little weapon, which they club together all of the Fox NEWS hosts, saying the wrong things about the krona virus earlier so
as all the people who just the flu and don't worry, band and go about your business and go out to dinner. And when you see all the clubs together is pretty damning, pretty damn, but here's the thing where's, the where's, the compilation clips of all the experts were wrong to these sort of missing the contacts. Right we'll be the context missing. Yes, it is true, Many many the personalities and Fox NEWS said things early on that turned out to be just dead wrong. So it's fair to show that in the compilation, but it's not to show it, unless you also include in the compilation that the top experts, the World Health Organization, doktor fatty information we are getting from China all that was wrong.
So yes, the people who are not doctors were wrong. Do you know who else was wrong for doctors give us some contacts? How about the fact that everybody was wrong everybody's role there weren't any smart people show years a challenge to you. The daily show put together clip of all the people who write who's gonna, be on it. Mike servage me jack. Bizarre back is that that that the compilation clip you are of all the people who are right early, that's not accomplish clearly showed that the illegal does this document does not support your point.
So as much as I like, the compilation clips, the other, the humorous ones? They are funny so again that, but that this could not be more misleading, basically was fog of war, and nobody had the right answer. Really on and those of us who did AL, you know somebody was can be right. You can never know if you are right for the right reasons. You can only know that some people write something wrong, no matter what no matter what the prediction is, no matter what the topic is. Somebody's gotta be right, cause or something people making different predictions, but it doesn't mean the right for the right reasons. It just means people were all over the board and somebody was gonna be right. So I try not to let myself I get too big of a ahead if I'm ever
eventually these things, because I never know why? I'm right really. You just know that you're how many of you have lost wait during the pandemic. I think I've lost around eight or nine pounds and I was trying to gain weight. I was actually tried to put out a few extra pounds because I thought you know, especially at my age. If I, if I get some kind of a health issue, it's good to have just a little extra weight. You know what you, don't want to go all the way to an overweight condition. Gazettes. Worse but being underweight at a certain age is not really good. You your little little cushion in case something goes wrong, so I will try to gain weight of losing about nine pounds only because I'm eating so well yeah just healthy food and I'm exercising diligently Saddam,
other things I'm supposed to be doing, and I can't even gain weight by trying Taiwan. Is the right answer, two months before you? They probably had a lot better information. I think we were getting better information from China. They may have had better.
Asian Michael Savage, was raised at the same time as me, you're saying yes or imagine that compilation clip the compilation clip of the people who write nobody's gonna. Put that together when we make a prediction you're never going to see the compilation clip of the people were right. Early is, does that group doesnt have good pr. If you normally, I think that's all. I got today somebody's back up to three hundred push up today. There are you gonna, be beast a beast. Somebody says gained way. Well, some of you have your your isolating with somebody use a good Jeff. If your isolating was the leaves a good chef that could be tough
You're gonna, Jim yeah you're right, I don't think, there's anything better than taking a long walk for your general health. I may lifelong exercises that I've spent lots of time trying to understand the best techniques and stuff, That's probably try most of the ways you can exercise so I've ITALY's sample just about every sport, every kind of excess. And I got to tell you the one that just all stands out is a long walk at any early age. You know if you're younger, maybe walk further, but it's the most gentle compatible with your biological natures. What you're? You know your body evolved for it just now
he's got you don't give injured? Typically, so what I'm wondering is there? So many people were taking walks now, because it's one of the few things is available to you. I wonder how many people get hurt them because it because I'm definitely hook, I used to like to drive through the german stuff, but at this point every time I take a walk in a nice sunny cool day this perfect for walking. I feel great, I sleep grade feel great, don't they stress really it's transformative fairly quickly. Somebody said how long where I walk through, usually hills so pretty steep. No, I might do two to four miles. You're just depends how I feel
Doktor Andrew while says walking is the best exercise. I think there's just gotta be true gaining muscles different from gaining fat. Of course, it's hard to walk around the city, yeah, maybe urge, were grounded. Sneakers is trying to avoid people out here. There's no traffic, no cars, And you could walk for a long time without being on the same side of the road. Is somebody we're in my neighborhood there's always somebody a walking the walk, a dog or something but people across the street so I haven't I haven't cross. Somebody sidewalk, who is on the same side of the street, is as me in weeks. Probably probably two weeks I haven't been on the same side work with somebody. I cried his cross road and so is coming.
All right, that's all for me and I'll talk to you at ten p, DOT M Eastern seven, p, DOT, M Pacific for your evening, swaddle time. That's part of the day that doesn't the morning! Alright, that's all for now have a great day.
Transcript generated on 2020-04-16.