« Coffee With Scott Adams

Episode 909 Scott Adams: Was Live

2020-04-13 | 🔗

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a

Content:

  • My thoughts on documentary, Out of Shadows
  • Should we ignore health concerns, go back to work?
  • Whiteboard1: Coronavirus and the Economy
  • Whiteboard2: Printing 3 Trillion Dollars Without Inflation

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The post Episode 909 Scott Adams: Was Live appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
A number of them, ah feathers, good, swallowing, greater or commander everybody. It's time for your evening, climb down from year, perch of worry and start to feel good about the day, with a more optimistic, get ready to relax into her awesome night sleep, it's gonna be good. Where we have some controversial things will talk about some interesting things will stimulate your mind, but when it's all done, your brain will be exhausted. You'll, be in perfect condition to drift off to sleep,
I will be happy, so I did a little poll twitter because I can- and I ask people how many people think that that weird sickness they had in January, because so many of us report something like that. How many of us think we actually had grown a virus already, o whiteboard is coming, don't worry and how many people do? You think said that that they think they actually had the corona virus already hundreds and hundreds of people who answered so I'm also one of the people who had a weird. Ever was wrong. With me in January was not like anything. I've experienced before couldn't walk, upstairs shorter breath on everything you thought I was gonna die, but I ain't never call off. So maybe it wasn't it
So it turns out that forty eight percent of the people is really unscientific ball. The thing- they already had the corona virus. Now. What is that, due to your calculations, about risk and your calculation about going back to work, What does it mean if, let's say there's something like a forty percent of the entire country thing said because at all if there is any reason that the people who follow me out there are more likely to think they had grown a virus. It's not a scientific pole, but if I had to guess I guess they have country everywhere, you ask would say, though I did have some strange. All this in January, know why this is important. In order for the government to make a decision about, went to go back to work and how the
public black to be supportive if for calculating the odds of YO, catastrophic hospitalization. Or even your own ads or your odds of somebody in your family would get it from you, those sources You're really really is gonna, be influenced. By whether you think you already have the antibodies right. How could it not be ed? as so. I worry that has exactly the sort of thing which could be like a gigantic influence in public opinion, which would of course have a gigantic influence on what the government, due to the government care really do something that the public heads too much. A little bit of support right. So I wonder about that, so it is great to be able to.
How many of us have actually have it in some statistically valid way so that you could get talk down? There you are one of the few people had it does. I don't think fifty percent of the country had grown a virus. In January I mean, maybe maybe Somebody said: does Scott get the flu shot? You know I used to but I over the last two years, because it feels like the the odds of making a difference, are so low that I can't tell myself to walk across the parking lot and get a shot.
I probably should you know if I were being super rational about it, but the benefit in service, eventually how much better cuz, I think I got. I think, they're just guessing with these flu shots, like the other, trying to guess which one is going to be the active one and it's already too late by the time the shot is put together, so I probably should, but the benefit is trump to the point where I motivate myself to do so? Don't take my advice and that this measure I was asked to look at a video documentary called out if shadows this might get me thrown off the internet or find out now like Servage mentioned it. Twitter alerted me to it, and somebody asked me my opinion about. I thought all right. I was doing drawing anyway needed something to listen to soil is too and is definitely worth watching.
But I also say that things are worth watching. What I don't think their true so is. Fully worth watching in the same way that I love all the ancient Alien tv shows, I don't care think those shows are necessarily spot on. What really happened, but the really fun do I because I'm always amazed that they can find so much evidence for any damn theory that they want. So it doesn't have to be true to be recommended, or you can make your own mind up about. Much is railway, its Ali would start man who said sort of, Going down this rabbit hole of discovery about, was really running the world and how things really work and the other had the following revelations. If you can call it that now again, you get
decide are these true revelations, or is he over interpreted nor a crazy or what here here, the things he believes the years plenty of evidence for number one, that the CIA is and always has been influencing movies books of entertainment to brainwash the public. For whatever reasons the CIA in the country, I think, would be good for the country or good for somebody. So, claimed number one CIA influences popular culture. On a routine basis for some effect, true or false. I would say obviously true How was I would even in question.
At the very least, we all know that the military has always worked with Hollywood to make sure the military is portrayed good light and thus clearly just propaganda for the country say is evil. Thus egg is wrong, but of course now. You should also expect here's my general statement about these things. Whatever you have a situation where it's possible to do something and there are, People involves not just will one not making decision, but lots of people are involved in possible to do something and there's a gigantic upside gain, potentially not necessarily but potentially huge upside game, almost no risk. What happens in all of those situations in all situations, bad behaviour happens every time, so you don't have to ask yourself. I wonder if this is one of those rare times when there were some
Thing two: thing devious was easy to do it would almost certainly work the absurd potential would be incalculable. And the odds of being caught in most are basically nothing Really have to ask you: don't have to ask is evidence You don't you need evidence, now only the filmy offers of evidence and talks about things that are unpleasant Ireland, it all israeli convincing, but I don't think you do the evidence because of course has been done and you can extend their thought. Of course, we're doing other countries do. I need any evidence to know that the CIA is and is attempting anyway to influence other countries. By influencing seeing their their media and their news.
I have no evidence to suggest that true accept its true, because they can there's a big upside do not does not really much penalty of getting caught. As long as those as long as those factors replace, of course, is happening. You should assume that other countries are also trying to influence our media. Are news, etc, for a further commentarii this making shocking claims, I found it fairly, ordinary, listen that are so there's a second part. This even more fun so I judge that true. Though, maybe some of the examples. Here's where I depart from the documentary I dont think weakening. Telly spot those cases we might think we can hear you might. A movie now now No, the CIA is do it. I can tell
part of the movie was influenced by the sea at you can't do that. That's not a thing if they're doing at their probably clever enough, Those luckily heavy added or if its heavier than such as making the military look good, then install exactly what you think of it, but I don't think you can necessarily spot those. Clever ways after their influence in the media, sometimes is obvious. When you actually want me, let me back that up. If you watching a movie, It may not always be obvious, even if you think it is if you watching the news well, sometimes as a little bit of its like when NBC does stuff you look it NBC it. You think they judge exchange their initials to see. I guess sometimes it's just so obvious, but you can be wrong about those two. So I suppose I could be wrong about that. The other big.
The claim is that there are in fact very large and active pedophile rings at the highest rooms of power and Hollywood and in government and among rich people. Do I judge that to be true or false, of course, is true, Is anybody dally that does anybody doubt that there are powerful groups uttered after all, connected by other, clearly powerful groups within different countries, different organ, nations clearly powerful pedophiles in Hollywood, plenty of reporting on that there are other meetings, actually share your. U have to assume that some of that too, so you say that the general claim that their gigantic widespread, so by organised and sometimes very organised,
The file rings, I would say, is true. There was second part of that claim. Is that the CIA may also be some, associated with some of this, because it allows them to get dirt on people that they could later influence now. Do you think that the CIA or, let's take any intelligence agency does have to? I could be any other country? Do you any intelligence agency would try to get compromising section laid it or even illegal behaviour, activity of important people such that they can influence than later. Yes, yes, of course it's easy to do as a whole the job side no penalty for getting caught
People are involved. As every Ajax every box, so again, You don't need any evidence to know that that You don't need evidence to know that there's plenty of time, really going around the high levels. I feel like you all agree with that how workers that is- and here, if you get throw him Hillary Clinton, that I've got a problem with that, like, I don't think, there's any, evidence. Hillary Clinton said about it, so you know you can stand up to the point of ridiculous. But certainly there's plenty of it going on and you should assume that every intelligence agency everywhere in every country is taking advantage of it wherever they can. So certainly there would be some kind of overlap between their stuff. Another, the parts that I was there. I thought interesting is that even though it was sort of
the idea of an use, a word cause, I'm gonna get so I don't wanna get blocked platform So I'm gonna reversal word: ok Second brother word is gate, as part of the word, is a round flat food item that has sauce and cheese usually- and I want to use the word here- see the text voiced. The text will pick it up and I'll get kicked off a Youtube just for me, so this is mentioned by. Interesting way, even though its a documentary promote that these things exist? It did, I find that the evidence that carbon pizza was involved with any of it. So I thought- or that's at least that's fair, didn't find any evidence that the third one This was involved and envy, indeed nobody else as either
but it didn't mention that there was a similar store like right on the block or across the street. They had as its logo. The international sign for failure. I don't know if that's true somebody that affect check that, sir. I'm not sure. I believe that, just because it was in the documentary, but then here's here's, the part there's really interesting, you'd, all those emails that got hacked and you know the stories about the references to that around flat food. I know and you know that that is allegedly- and I guess, there's putting it evidence for there is a code word for people operating in this shadowy world, add its metal EL, since I see the actual emails showing the actual sentences that that this word was used in and
its laughingly obvious that are not really talking about the food now I As there are some chance. That they were using the specific food aid there's a code word for some completely unrelated thing as possible, but you can tell a quite clearly from the sentence they were talking about food because the way was used is obvious, not about food. So was a code for something it is well known that this code apparently exists in that shadowy particular underworld, so I have to say that I was pretty compelling pretty compelling now. What I always warn against, as with any documentary, if you don't see the counterpoint You can really be convinced by ones then the argument. So
with their caviar. I've always seen their explanation. The next person would say: no, that was not even the radio males, that's from somebody else, or they may say no, before there was nothing across the street. You made their part up, so I don't know the counter arguments, but if you're just a judge by itself- and you didn't look ready other context, pretty pretty convincing- I gotta say but doesn't ministry then. The other part there that for me, was server tell, then it wasn't all true was all the to stuff. So there was quite a bit of time time that world into these satanic world. Say the stuff, Firstly, never that rang as probably care rule without dough ruled out
So will the two on the nose, like the big Martin preschool case, which had similar allegations in turn out to be false. See. Apparently the New York Times wrote this wrote a book is the wish there were tried to excuse by them from the allegations against some furs of me to stuff back in the nineties. They tweeted part of the road article. But then they had to go back and change the article, but they left the tweet at the parliament they got to get rid of. Is that are trying to excuse bided this they that. They couldn't find that the evidence of his past after they did their research. They couldn't find it. No bad behaviour quote yard hugs kisses and touching the people were uncomfortable with now think it. What do you mean they couldn't find any bad
ever aside from hogs kisses and touching the people found uncomfortable and so is one of those self cancelling sentences like weight of it. That is bad behaviour if they were uncomfortable and we can do or even if they were comfortable, there would still be bad behaviour by by the standards of the day. So. I guess they what they had to go back and guerrilla sentence in the article, but they had already tweeted. They kept a tweet up so that they were boasted that and of course, all the alert funded said. Narratives you're, not even pretending to do journalism anymore, that Not even
It's not even tried to hide it. They were abuse purely just tried to defend Biden against exactly the same kind of accusations that Cavenaugh ahead and making them just completely reverse their stand. The whole media really reverently the reverse. Their stand at argue the point that they were just arguing the opposite of a year ago, so they look like idiots far. You say by now: I will do that, controversial perverse, so that I dont ended that I think you'll appreciate. So I've been going Ballade on Twitter. What I mean I bought is that I say something that I know we'll get people all worked up, then nobody block. So I thought I was. I was taking up the
these trolls, because I have a suspicion that we you further reporting that there's massive chinese interference already unsocial media. So there are lots of Chinese Botz pretended to be, real people dealing with people. Now I assume I would be other target list or less than the top hundred right, as I'm sure they got lots of targets are probably the top under a just cause of other things. I say them: near the top of the hearing, the chinese government. So One would assume the right people, and the radar one way or the other, and so I thought only see. If I can, I can surface by saying something that they would be more likely to respond to than normal people now. I think this strategy failed completely. It is possible that some of the people I blocked today were chinese agents, but probably none
because what I did was I accidently kicked up. All People are really bad arguments about freedom. And they got really mad at all. People who who blocked it's not so much because in a different opinion again I don't black people for different opinions. Don't do I do black people if they say in public what I'm thinking incorrectly or even correctly, you're, the only person who should be telling the public. What I'm thinking is me? So if you do it, I don't care what your intentions, I know why you're my world unaware anybody telling other people? What I think is almost never so, just as a good, it was even personal. It's not like. I hate you for doing. This is just that. I prefer not to have any involvement with people who who think that makes sense
here's how I ratcheted this happens for his trouble I suggested that very few things as just one is that there could be an app you would voluntarily. Thus Keyword vote I'm everyday put in your particulars of your temperature and yet, if you have any symptoms,. And that that would be able to. Maybe you ve got it wouldn't work every time of course, but it might pick up some hot spots where you would get them. It was now what were the two major comments to that, and this will tat. This is like the story of my life, because I I surface alot of ideas I can't tell you how many times as happens so Hence the college will come and say that will never work and they'll give reasons why this will never. Work and the coming right below it will be our authority,
Here's the name of the company, as always, the one right after the one who says that could never work Scott. You driver you crazy, crazy guy Scotland, oh here's a link to dip into in every year, so it turns out. I thought I knew that there was an app. They came with a measuring measuring device, a temperature device. There were paired. Spared the up, but I mistakenly thought that that's all it did. I thought it was only temporary My idea was to ask if you lost your sense of smell and he ever the other subjects but I've been informed. I think, reliably that the temperature app also asked us questions, so it would be fine for exactly what I said so it'll. Never work sail this more people on the internet, followed by our already works as a company doing that you should get one I care,
tell you how many times this has happened to me now Here's everything that got people worked up, so people complained that I was trying to limit their freedom to the freedom to just go back to work. Even if there are some impact on the people they claim they claim. That is their freedom. Now I dont disagree with that by the way. What we'll get to my opinion here but I'll just screw that that would be exactly a description of freedom. Freedom would be. You can go to work even if there's some negative effects. But what I did find is I thought I would help clarify people's thinking about this freedom thing. That's where things got bad and they said, You should be thinking in terms of the three Levels of freedom-
Not having freedom is what we have now so right now, we don't have freedom, because a government says stay home and it feels like thirty penalties. If we disobeyed that so right now, there's no freedom, but people mistakenly think that free would be the ability for anybody wants you to go to work well but he doesn't like that risk doesnt after they can go to work or they can stay, and then everybody has freedom. To which I say now. That is incorrect analysis. That's only half freedom. If you want to get to actual freedom, you have to let your neighbor kill you if he doesn't want to take the risk, if you are going to work, that's freedom, so you have to get rid of all all the rules and all of the penalties for about action. If you're, giving some penalty is because of these actions will have a bad impact on other people
such as your, where you seatbelt it'll, keep their healthcare costs and insurance down for everybody, so. I was just trying to be helpful in my provocative way by saying you're, not advocating for freedom. You are advocating we're just another type of limited freedom and I'll bet that every person who said you can't take. Play freedom away. If I want to go to work, it doesn't matter even if as a bad effect on other people, how many of them, without argument using have drivers licences because what's a driver's license. The government telling you you can or cannot drive and the only in the only way you can is. If you demonstrated the government that there is a good chance, you can keep other people the little bill safe, because you know how to drive and you wear glasses- knew better a minute the requirements of a driver so
we don't live in a world in which were not continuously trading our privacy and freedom to get benefits, in fact the entire well. This is an exaggeration, but a big part of but the government does and why you have it is to make exactly those decisions of saying I write You really want this to work better. But unfortunately, the only way this is gonna work better. If I take, little bit of this freedom away from you, and maybe this privacy too. Are you ok with that? Sometimes we get asked, and sometimes we don't. But the point is everything we see in government. Is this a sense of weighing the benefit of losing a little freedom with the positive that could come from that with full exposure? Invisible We all know what we're talking about. We all know that the trade off so for those people who think
that they should have the freedom and by the way I still haven't. Given you my opinion, if you think you ve heard my opinion, you have it, describing the the field, and people say: yes, I should be able to go to work because I feel the risks or low to me and I also don't think the risks or that high to other people relative to other risks, so I think I should be allowed to go to work now. Here's! What may surprise you that's a reasonable arguments. That's completely reasonable that somebody who said I am looking at all the places minuses and I know that a lot of people would die under this plan, but All things considered, I think we're better off this way. At least the people who don't dire better off than the people do have love unstable so that's a completely reasonable opinion and people. I think people
believe that I was fighting against that I would say I'm still evaluating so I haven't come down that war or the opposite. I say I feel like I need to know a lot more. Just just like the the crisis team needs to know where's. My question for those people who have their opinion. What is your assumption about what happens to the healthcare system? Because you know I would like to have healthcare. At the moment, I don't really have a healthcare system. You know what I mean. Cuz I've got two operations that were scheduled. There were the other one was going to be scheduled. But do I have health care? I pay for healthcare, the region. I can't have healthcare is because these people want to exercise their freedom to go to work in the future,
I pathetically servant, and so I say let's say the government said well we're out we're out of it. You right just just operate responsibly, irresponsible people act like adults doing And so people go to work because they think they rest thrift are worth it to them and to the damage of two other people they go to. What are they thing happens to the hospitals wooden services? Be us as a block, so go block all the people who are just not even willing to think about all the variables. At. Let me finish. Somebody said the hospitals are empty That might be the. EAST aware comment of the day. Let me explain for the bill, say modern uttered value to be watching the news and not be aware of this. Most hospitals are empty cause, they're, giving really ready for the push and they
Yes, although the people like me who had two operations upcoming, and so there were intentionally empty summit, they can be ready just in case, so you should think of that as like insurance is not at stake it to get ready. Just in case is not a permanent state. It doesnt tell you anything about where the virus is going. They just Was you that at the moment they're ready? That's all it tells you there's! No other information you should get for then But if you look at New York City and ITALY and some other places I think we're beyond. Hearing whether it would have an impact in impact on your healthcare. So. Do other people have the freedom, or should they have the freedom in this country to go to work? if the probable impact, let's say that they just do no restrictions, they just want full freedom. I just wanna go to work. If the probable Alcoa, that is there
of care is unavailable. To me is that ok now a mighty gives remember Almost everything we do has an impact on other people. If I drive my car, I might kill you with my car. So can I drive a car? Well here's what years- and this is the thing that people argue, here's the thing. With society is decided that the risk with cars is acceptable and we have a healthcare system they can handle that Society is decided that some people smoking cigarettes wall not ideal is acceptable and our health care system is sized to handle that they have decided that you can do your extreme sports and our health care system is sized to handle that, in fact, you can drink your alcohol. Our health care system is sized, to handle it, so if you comparing going to work and no, they use, spread the virus and
and every expert would overload at least some of our much Fulton cities. That's not the same. We're not sized to handle it. If we were sized ahead, let your argument between forest robber So he says Newark City is not the USA, but it would be. According to all the experts now overruled the experts. I'm just saying I daresay I dont believe there's anybody who has viruses just in their title, who doesn't think this would sweep through the country if, if we didn't mitigate, can sum, This aspect, that is there, anybody uses actual professional whose in this virology field who s command said in public, you can just not mitigate just don't do anything. There will be fine. Or do they all think it will turn into some version New York S, some some rate just might not be overnight:
So factored we're there, but I feel like pretty from there. So there was always loser. Think in my living call out these specific loser think so loud. During the one variable thinking there, just thinking about my freedom, freedoms, absolute, my freedom and there giving about all the other variables like. Ok, there's. A reason to drivers licence is to protect the other people about one variable, so one variable thinking the chapter in my book loser think they, it also compared to the wrong things. I give you the example of comparing it: a driving ban comparison comparison because driving accidents over overwhelm more hostile systems, They use a slippery slope argument that if you do this you do voluntarily wealth is good idea is going to become the law. I've got a whole chapter and why the slippery slope doesn't make sense. Now there are things
the dew progress and I would certainly admit that if he had a voluntary app, there was so good that the governments- and you know it so good- we're just gonna make that mandatory. Of course I condemn, but it would happen because it's a good idea. It is not a slippery slope to move in the direction of better ideas, so I agree that you could slip toward bad ideas as well, but we generally doubt we don't slip there. We make decisions and we go there willingly.
And then, of course, is a failure of imagination and they bring a mind reading element where people kept accusing me of really having a sinister plan for a tyrannical dictatorship like that was my secret plan and that's the reason I was suggesting. Some ideas is it: it was all really to soften you up sore, like the CIA is doing and that they thought of softening you up for the totalitarian, totalitarian, take overvalue rights of you and your privacy weirdly. Maybe somebody can answer this for me, weird,
something like sixty to seventy percent of all the people who complained in a specific way also had icons. There were black and white designs gather blackmailing now. There are not many black and white icons room right earth when he hot yeah the icon for years, for your profile there are seventy. There are black and white, but why is that? as seventy percent of the people who are working for an absolute freedom? No matter the cost? Why is of the seventy percent of them had black and white, but different designs, black and white, that does that mean something is or is there some kind of belief system in which that that's a sigh
Does a q is, it is always a q and it could be that because I was I was wondering if there's your avatar yeah so people's avatars we're not even black and white people, necessarily they're just designs. So here's why I'm asking if their chinese agents- if you are China, what would be one of the most damaging things you could do to the United States? I'll answer the question that was damaging thing you could do to the United States would get on social media pretend to be real. People argue that the most important thing and the only thing we should be looking at his our freedom to go back to work, because that. To basically causes the rage with virus, while China will lie and say ours is under control, look we have zero again today,
China would like two to pretend that they got everything under control with their system that chinese communism liquor. We did get that under control. How are you doing with your freedoms over there about you? freedom did you constitution work out for you, a million people died those sorry can we ship you some defective masks and gowns? Would you be happy? Can I steal your ip? Can they send you some sentinel, so I'm not going to say that all of the people we're coming up here today A lot of them they came and owes a wave. They see. Don't come at once and they seem to have very similar arguments Those similar arguments are identical to what I would do. If I were there,
chinese government and I really wanted to mess with this country bad, and you know they do because they're doing it, I mean it's not like I'm guessing with we ve caught them doing exactly the way. I'm describe it. Are these Americans who have ex levels of loser. Think meaning their mind. Reading failure of imagination, slippery slope, surreal, comparing variables. One variable thinking, that's a lot of bad thinking for one person right, This is about a lot of thinking: mistakes for one real person, because my Innovation is a real people, can have one or two sometimes three have you ever seen a real person have six simultaneous glaring. Obvious elements of loser, thinking one opinion I dont know if these are real people folk So let me just say this
turns out there all real people in there. Just your cue follows: there's something I totally would believe that so I'm not coming down on the opinion that these are definitely chinese agents, but their opinions are identical, I'll die on them I would die on the hill that the worst thing that China could do is try to get us to ignore the health concerns of others and just go to work without any restrictions now would be their most clever plan if they're not do and that they are not as smart as we think, because that's what I'd do? What would you do. What would you do seriously? What would you do and they might even be playing ball sides? They may have the trolls We arguing we should stay locked up forever. That's bad for the economy,
trolls that argue, we should just go out and have a civil war or get our rights back, because the conflict is good to China wins both ways now suck that something happier which is the economy and this kind of fun citizens. They want to leave you with. Start weird: I've ever just how similar viruses to an idea in both cases? an idea or a virus. There the things that use humans as house. They cause a physical change in you, In other words, in order to store an idea in your head, its associated with a physical and chemical change in your brain? If that physical and chemical change went away, so the idea and likewise virus. You becomes part of you, it's U incorporated with you at least for a while.
And then both of these can spread by contact. No I'll get to appoint is really is really worth it. You're gonna love it. Soap among our ideas- and this is just some samples rates by no means fleet are the ideas. Are constitution, is important: capitalism, entrepreneurship, risk management, science, engineering and even optimism these. These are all ideas that we hold is important and they ve been developed over sense. These yarns. These are the ideas that basically keep us working, they at the moment we are compatible with most of our ideas, meaning that the human species which are the host work well with the ideas, so if the idea succeed while they can only do it because our physical bodies and brains were also reproducing in succeeding.
I think the best way to look at this as there is not a humans against virus rather our ideas, which you can almost think of as a separate entities, that the ideas are in a war with the viruses and the humans are nothing, but the battle field were nothing but the battlefield be above, because humans are humans. We think there were the where the players we think, where the central characters borne out, where the canvas not the painting we're just the battlefield. The raging battle is between the ideas which, if you watch them there, the ideas have almost automatically, with the help of the people, s house, the ideas of. Immediately emerge hey here, a bunch of ideas, refining the virus.
Then the idea started like combining and getting stronger and evolving. Did you see how much how many ideas sprung out of this crisis? It was like an idea. Volcano just so soon as soon as the the host was threatened, the ideas sense the threat, because if the host dies, the idea, die with it, and so the ideas humans as far as their their base, just sort of forming an fomenting and just for this curious amount of energy in every part of ours they are a life was red reemergence, so the ideas went into full battle mood for battle mode immediately and in a change everything it just put their hosts.
Shut down. The hosts are saying we want to go back to work and the ideas are saying not yet. Now these ideas collectively form the economy back these ideas. They cause us to be motivated. We we work with arms and legs. We buy things we trade things there's a whole bunch: physical snuff, the buildings, jobs, the products, the machines But those all start with ideas and the ideas, motivator bodies, then we build these things so. The economy is mostly a bunch of. Ideas less important part, but keep in mind. If you blew up all of the stuff, let's say: there's a world war and Lust Africa's destroyed. As long as the ideas are intact and we're not dead, we could probably figure out a way to get back to a good economy such as after world war, two. But what if it goes, Otherwise what if we lost Oliver ideas?
we still have our products and our tools and are our buildings were all dead Because of the ideas that matter, these are the important things: the physical manifestation of them are also important, but those can all be changed. If you mess with this stuff, everything breaks so this stuff immediately just started super evolving. When we're done with this, our ideas will have. To a new level of being a fuel is all Slightly just went into rapid evolution and improved and mergers and combined into this wondrous thing. So here's the first bit of optimism. You can't kill this ethical. All of us here are three of us left over work.
Reassemble right, because the ideas just need a host and then, though, build back your economy in early. So the first good news is the strongest part of the the war is a really good shape. The ideas rose to the challenge and it looks like they're gonna get it done, but there will be some technical problems with the country, and I would just call out these three. Of course you could make a really long list of other problems, but primarily there's gonna be credited problems where people didn't pay their bills and then kill geloans care pay off their debts. Banks may be in in trouble, you ve gotta, demand problem where we would get products, but nobody has money to buy them, where's my demand and that, of course, food. I think food will be solved because we're compassion a country that we're not run out of supplies. Does
it was your will rather maybe choices, but we're not around food people rather money to buy the food. Well, as I said in my earlier periscope, nobody in mind everyone's gonna get go hungry, because if anybody needs a meal and mighty road, this biomaterial and if ten people need bills oh boy than people meals, so I think the other government and neighbours etc. Even if they don't get their checks on time, I think will eat. I would predict at least four people were willing to leave their willing to talk to other people? I worry this. There might be some elderly, you just don't want to ask for help that that would be the saddest, but for the most part with it won't be starvation. Their recent special cases works a terrible tragedy. Happen, but those special cases, so the two big problems together, spect work, our demand and credit
I would say that credit is solvable if the government of the United States is willing to back the banks and begged to back the people. His way to change some rules baby force? The credit companies do not report. Any defaults happened during this period, so you can imagine that, with the full weight of the government working on it as long as the government of the United States exists with the biggest military and the world, we are credit, so I think we have plenty of muscle to protect the banks and protect people who have greater problems. I think we can work that the debris the problem will be completely fixed by giving people their money, but it might help a little. Let's talk about the interesting part you I'll get to the interesting part, so
This is the way is supposed to work great, so the governments can print money. The rocket borrow this is very important distinction, so the plan for this for these Jackson, for the the rescue in the economy is there we just magically just say: ok, we're more money than the government, just issues more money. Basically, it's not literally printed, but you gotta me. So governed issues more money, they The citizens are coloured universal basic income for two months or whatever dens obey. And they take their money and they stimulate the economy and they buy things for the stores and then the stores have profits, they can pay taxes and it goes back and see us forget.
Now, but where does this two or three trillion dollars come from? That's the interesting question, because how did you just say: hey: hey, it's three trillion dollars. We just printed money and now we are three trillion dollars more, so is that free? So I asked this question of actual economists. Tweeting said yeah covetous explain this to me is ready. Downside is there's no downside, I'm seeing people asking in the comments. So it's not going to be borrowing. This time we do borrow in the national debt has grown. That's a separate problem. This is not that this is actually just printing more money. Just because we can we control the printing press is the government issues. The currencies are just issues more, so three trillion issued more now. What's the first class,
we ask yourself way. We can do that if we can do that. Why have we done that before? And you can see the comments? The reasoning, the reasoning is inflation, so the recently you don't just pretty muddy is then there would be more money than there is stuff. So where are you still have a hundred dollars float? rounded, the universes oversimplified, less a wary: You still have a thousand dollars say there was only one product in the world. Well, the thousand dollars would buy you their product. But if you suddenly have two thousand dollars the persons saw you. The phone is gonna, think you know that there are more than a thousand. They have two thousand. So just try charging two thousands who happens and of course they pay it
because it's there still paying everything they have for the phone, so I'm doing a bad job of explaining it. But the point is: if you just increase the money, but not the number of products and services, then you get. Inflation is one exception, though there's only one section where you could just prints three trillion dollars would just be free. Do you know the one exception? Is this: this is the one exception because demanded solar who could raise prices today. Now, if you don't, let's not upheld the emergency equipment and the price gouging, let's Small part of the economy, so not counting the price gouging who who's gonna raise the price of their their phone? Nobody, I mean they might want to Well? How do they do that? When you go back to work with your little
will you be hijack here. You go back to work and demand is low notice, getting paid as much that does the person who makes this battery pack do they raise the price in the waller. All the demands that another cat, the only time, the only time that you could potentially just print three three trillion dollars is right. Now, there's no other time, you could do it and it would be free now It is correct that if the economy just came raging back- and it was a major success- you would have too much money and there too soon, because demand would come raging back one hour leave. Anybody thinks that that's gonna happen in the next two years. So if you could take
the risk of inflation and pushed off a few years until the economy comes up. You probably wouldn't even notice it my them. So here's the greater point, which was explained to me by Joshua Ganz, whose working professional economist I got him on Twitter. For my economics questions we don't always agree, but his taken things always are rational and makes sense and are well informed and here's how he exclaimed. I, like this explanation, is just an alternate way of looking at the same thing that putting money into the city just printing three trillion dollars would be bad if it caused an imbalance, but if one is doing is bringing balance back to the system it could be. There's no way to know free money. We're in the only the only situation that,
even imagine we could ever be or frankly there's no other situation that would leave all of our means of production perfectly in place, except for a virus. That's it just a virus. Even if was you know, the was here be, even if was added Disraeli electronics that you couldn't just go back to work. But the one and always situation were all you're assets that everything is still in place. You just don't have any demand. Is this this very exact specific situation you when you're the best part?
So not only do we get to invent a three trillion dollars which, by the way is like a soldier solves the problem we have is a tough here ahead. I don't want to show you got it. I'm just tell you that the Good NEWS tell you balance and against the staff that genuinely stuff you need to worry about. The good news Is that it does look like we can print three trillion dollars just because we wanted to. Only because of the situation now. What I've been tell you about Trump makes him different. Roma all other politicians. What is it
the saying I say all the time about him that he does the one thing that nobody else does and what is that somebody schools in the comments, but he finds free money. There is money on the ground he walks by the table. He says pile of money seriously. Nobody Nobody you'll see this right. Am I the only one who sees this giant pile of money? I guess I am going once going twice. Anybody aright. He takes a big pile of money. Does a time after time. Now, usually it's in a political sense, yes says, or does the thing that was easy? I said this will form a space force. You know some some president was going to form space worse, there's gonna be here or the one after and when, after that, whatever so, it was free money because whoever whoever is the first one
do it is forever the one who formed space force, so it was just an example of free body. Of course it was a smart to do so. We have it in- and let me say as clearly as I can economics- is complicated. I have a degree in this stuff and I had to ask an actual a communist, check, my thinking. Now you have a lot of texture that that really helped my thinking, but the basic. The basic thing is that there can be a perfect situation in which you can just print three trillion dollars, and it might be this. It might be less No, you couldn't do it again, because once you thought of me a solid you lose an opportunity. Then then, it's just in case you're. So here's the good part you know people are talking about the infrastructure bill
and did you really want to borrow another trillion dollars to do infrastructure? Guess what it might be? Free infrastructure might be free if you do it now, because I would be part of the three trillion. That's free body, because nobody can raise. Prices will demand a solo, so we might have gotten infrastructure for free now part of that infrastructure. I would think- and I'm sure we're thinking this waiver There will be more emphasis on this. We saw the importance of working home and we saw we saw how important I live schooling was, and importantly, we saw, There are a lot of people who do not have access to digital products, so what
as online school. If you don't have a computer and you don't have wifi so certainly a big part of the infrastructure is going to be to get everybody. The capability of online education and then, free college, because if you can make your online education industry work, which it doesn't really work well now, but it would be easy to do that. If you can make it work, then the president can say no. I dont know if we could afford to send everybody to college for free, but we can give you a government Kickass certified college degree that you can work at an your leisure from home and you'll be better than college because it it'll be made by the best teachers and producers and editors and writers instead of just yo filming a guy who knows how to teach a class. So we might get infrastructure for free and my build out the last of the digital miles
that might make college free it might make your regular school, maybe modified some a little of both, and I also think that healthcare is gonna change forever, because this, maybe in a positive way it I've told you before that. If, if you have an entrepreneur in the room, the best thing you can do with your environment and shake it to shake the box and then the entrepreneur looks in the bar, see, I think, shaken again. She Jake O this. These things just lined up. I can make a business and I talk about Trump. Does this all the time and politics if he doesn't like
the argument the weight is he'll just introduced, something that just shakes it all up and in the midst of chaos, he's always the one eyed king. You know he's these he's the one who attracts all the attention gets all their gets all the quotes. So if he can create some chaos and shake the box, he's the king, it works over and over again, likewise with healthcare. I think Healthcare got gotta major shake up it and what not are they. Productive purpose was just like this major thing that happened and we got shaken and there are a lot of entrepreneurs and their space. The people were speeding up these new tests. I mean that's serious, yo, solid gold, turbot charge up entrepreneurship thoroughly.
That just sprung out of nowhere and suddenly are making tests and they're making devices in the apps and stuff like this. So I would think that the one of the results of this is major changes in healthcare and the public will demand it. The public will have a better sense of what works and what doesn't boom so. I saw the Good NEWS I have for you it's pretty get. I will tell you also that there are some. There are some good pieces of news coming down the bike. Some. I know about that. Pretty confident about this. I think we will get back to work, nobody's gonna starve and man is going to be good after we get it back and run so less often tonight. That's a good reims I'll talk to you in the morning.
Transcript generated on 2020-04-16.