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Episode 962 Scott Adams: No One Knows Anything But We Still Have to Decide How to reopen Economy

2020-05-08 | 🔗

My new book LOSERTHINK, available now on Amazon https://tinyurl.com/rqmjc2a


  • The Plague of Corruption video
  • General Flynn
  • San Antonio makes phrase “Chinese virus” hate speech
  • Vitamin D deficiency and coronavirus
  • Testing, flattening the curve, magical thinking

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The post Episode 962 Scott Adams: No One Knows Anything But We Still Have to Decide How to reopen Economy appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.

This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Bump bump bump bump bump me sure I'm a little bit late this morning, but I think that just built the anticipation, Nobody really were looking at the clock was. Seventy mortality among your coast- and you said is usually right on time. Well I was here ready, but I get caught up in southern old and stay there. Don't go anywhere, come right back, we'll notes, yes, and why do we not back you? So we have much fun to talk about today. Is gonna, be a good one. I Guerin d it but to enjoy it fully,
must be prepared and to be prepared, for you don't need much. All you need is a government or a glass integrity elsewhere, Stiva Kantian, jogger, flask of vessel of any kind and fill it with your favorite liquid. My coffee enjoyed me now for the unparalleled pleasure that don't mean it in the day. The thing that makes everything better, including the damn, damn them skull disabled any separate, happens now go here. I can feel corona virus antibodies forming in my body and I haven't been exposed. That's how good the coffee is. I'll beers is good, too
so you know how I can tell you that a number of times that there is just something weird about the simulation and and my my connection to it, and I can tell you that, although I'm pretty sure there are seven point, six billion people in the world for these things. I don't quite understand. I keep finding myself in the middle of major stories and you don't know how often this happens, because I cannot tell you all the times and I get pulled into a like an international none, not so much international, sometimes more more NASH. But sometimes international. I tend to get pulled into a lot of stuff because people just say there's this guy my bill. They help where he was interested theatre or I just know him
something, and so I find myself drawn into these giant stories. I dont know how to explain it, but it happened. So often. Let me give you think so the other day, somebody suddenly a book is quite good fairly common for peoples and books to other authors, usually they're looking for a book, blurb or sometimes I think you'll be interested me they're, trying to strike up some kind of a connection, but is very common for authors to go to their bill boxes. Unsolaced Somebody is something of a book now I guess so many of them there. Of course, I carried them, and I don't I don't always do you know why they something to me in some cases, so I started just put it in a pile. Look at a month, while I think maybe I'll read something pilot I hardly ever get around to so I get this book
And it was called the plague of corruption. Looked at my thought, I wonder why so many things I need to look at this. He might recognize that name because there's a viral video. You do- keeps keepsake down from Doktor Judy Megabits and the book anyways from Co. Author can't hack and lively, and So I did think much of it at the time I never heard of the video at the time. I just put the book with my other books and actually added something a little stand. I guess I'd like to cover or something So I didn't actually put it on the pile with the other books of this sort of feature. I wasn't really planning on reading them. And then the Youtube thing blows up and it gets more interesting cause. You think he'd yourself! Well, Scott! You got something in the
That's not really like being pulled into the middle of a major story. That's not really like that at, but I'm not done yet didn't you know, there's another part of the story. Researchers so the other day week after I got the boy, that I have already talked about the video, a periscope there's a note in my mailbox without an envelope, If you get a note without a novel up in your mailbox, means, as somebody knows where you live, and they didn't need to put a stamp on it. So somebody walked up by mailbox and physically put a note in my locks. Now, that's also not the first time. That's happened again. If you are in the public eye, it's not that strange opened my front door and they'll be here a package with no postage or a note.
Of low fat- is fairly carbon. I've had people darker my door just to talk to me, doesn't ever often, but every now there is rare rabbits. I get this note without love, love and the no. This from candle heck, lively, the co author of the book Who apparently lives close enough to my house that he knows which one is my house and they drove over and stuck the noted Maya? So so you can't see it, but that's the note the book- and he asked Billy Collins to talk about it now the odds that this would be this gigantic story, at least that the internet is a gigantic story, not in the mainstream press, but I've talked about it this is big thing and then the author lives in my town, drops a note. My mailbox, hey, you wanna talk, I mean really theirs.
We're going out, isn't there I wish. I could tell you the other instances in which I get drawn into big stories and has happened. I think three times a week most them. I can't tell you about what is crazy, just crazy. So anyway, a few times the locals platform were subscribers gets the extra staff from me. So be blessed be to cover this, knowing of course, presumably by I have already commented on it. I'm gonna get a comment again because I've had more time to think about it, and it goes like this so Christina now we're talking about the video she sought separately,
and when she listened to her. She found a very persuasive and compel it- and I said that's funny because I felt the opposite. I do think there's plenty of this true em, also quite concerning, but not really that far from what you already assumed to be true, the big pharmaceutical companies. But other sort of another level, of what say: allegation stuff, that I don't know that I can go that far, So I won't even repeat the level that allow sure has credibility, but there is certainly a base of credible and concerning things there I just think. Maybe it goes too far so my own take on it. Does the right- and I did not find incredible, War, Christina, listen to the whole thing, founded credible
No! She I usually think similarly enough that I was I was really surprised. I thought that we talked about the card is really a refill that compelling, because I was getting the opposite via really strongly and then that it came out there. She listened to whereas I watched it have any of you have that experience this Earl, video about the plague of corruption. Nobody listened to it without watching it, and if so, is it more compelling when you listened, then, when you watched, because have to be honest, the visual love it.
Our visual creatures new make assumptions about people's credibility by their body language, their mannerisms, probably some of the wrong stuff too, like their gender, their age as the speakers were here, we're all biased, terrible people. So even it. He tried not to let those things influence. You, Europe, still human right, You can try really hard not to be the kind of person, but we are pattern recognition that animals me heavily turn it off, and so my experience of watching it was ass. She was credible way say that credible, I dont mean she's, not right. That's completely different question, because I can't judges she's right. How would I I mean really do I have some kind of independent information that I can look at her claims well based on my research? No nothing like that.
It is purely looking at the individual somewhat the same way. You would do, let's say a job and review if your hiring somebody you I urge them not just by what their Erasmus said. He would judge them not just by the facts. Person. You would also judge them by the vibe, wouldn't you and you'd say knows something about their person. I wasn't quite comfortable with careful briefings, but there is somebody with the same skills that I'm comfortable with I'm gonna go with them. I was completely natural that we make these judgments. Individuals were important, so and I dont know how to say this, because I don't wanna like just be mindlessly, insulting or something But I found Doktor Judy Megabits, not not persuasive revived.
Well, there was something that was just triggering me and I dont know what it is. I dont want to think that it was gender. Because I don't have any experience my life for thinking that women are less credible if they're talking scientifically here is the field that their experts and I've never had. I thought before, as I know, things, but you always have to be on guard for their right. So that's my take now. I wonder I would urge this that if you are going to decide whether you buy into this, you should Google, the names of least Doktor, Judy Mick. You should her a of you five, at least the counter arguments. But I haven't seen yet, which is weird. Maybe this matters where where are the people who were let's say the accused because total found she is a big character, him interact positions so there
their executives or accompany user named individuals who have been alleged to be in bad behaviour. Here's was missing, those same people were better accused, doing effect, check out and say that flax now right, that's out of context now I have you seen it no, the services from seeing a url, thereby. Said so that might exist by now, but here's what I would here's, what I would caution. The credibility you should apply to this when you haven't heard the other side is the appropriate level of credibility. None if you haven't heard the other side and action, that's for everything right, there's! No! There should be no exception.
To this, if you haven't heard the other side, no credibility, but what, if you wait a few months is a big viral thing. It is impossible to ignore and still the people were better cues just don't comment, but instead Youtube just keeps taking the accusations off of Youtube and the internet is trying to scrub. It. What what would that tell you if the other side doesnt fact jacket, because our hard were be held debate? A political statement says Doktor Julia Big events made the following claim: here's a document that shows that or I was there- I promise you that didn't happen, where's. That kind of missing, isn't it
now it could be it just takes a while. It could be that the legal counsel for all involved said is just better just let it go like you, don't wanna, given attention. If you response you give it attention, but. Is there that's a pretty good strategy actually of Forbes? Has an article on it's gonna go check that out. So what here's? What I would expect, so I would expect if an independent, credible, reporter Doug into it there they would find. Is that a whole bunch of things she says our true, but top of the truth,
probably a level of interpretation, which is where things are gonna be interesting. So I'd like to therefore zircons who it but they say I submit a few other things I found I recently the general Flynn is connected to me. If such a small world under rally connection with them, I've tweeted about his situation a number of times and probably got his intention. But so I sent him a note today, I just self congratulation DM. I don't know what are the odds are General Lee and Jackson Dams and reads about especially on a day like this pro we got? One of you were available to follow you offer, which is that if he decides to write a book I give
come up with a top literary agent. You probably has one already and if he writes a book- oh all twelve them and give them some give him some attention, because here's how I feel about this, I dont think justice has yet been served. Do you I feel I justice was half served, but you can't really make up for the time you took from him. There's no way to fix that. The time has just gone, but is also the past right. You will dwell in the past, but what about the financial? Yet it is not really justice. He comes out of this at a certain age, your server approaching retirement age and he's been wiped out. That's that's no justice joy, This would be a ten million dollar book, which I will help him promote the shit out of it to that thing, up to the top of the best
royalist. Wouldn't you like to hear his story? Oh yes, you work, You would like to hear his story and are now feel ever be free to tell it he. Maybe you just can't tell the story for a variety of reasons, but I thought I'd put the offer out there because of the small world. Somehow I had a direct channel to the guy was the biggest story in the country. If he reads idea than if he decides he wants to do a book about. The someone also under the locals platform, had the sir have decided. It is a really good one. So let me run this one by lawyers. The idea that the CNN types and the Anti choppers are trying to make?
However, they can, over the slim thing, they're trying to spill it anyway. They can so it's so it's not so bad and one of the things that you are hearing them say is he played guilty. So how can it be fake if there was There was a guilty boy, and so that's actually pretty good point for the low information watchers. If they're just tried to convince their base that it wasn't as bad as people say, even though it was as bad as the worst thing, you could think it was actually a coup, that's what it was. But here is the suggestion when somebody's.
As you have really plug guilty. You have a cap that he can ignore. That ensures the response to that ready. So did the central part, five pretty girl. Isn't it now I'd forgotten this, and I think it's true do effect check me that I will make sure that's true, but did not the central Park five confess, and then you must have been a course confession or something and of course flints guilty play was also coursed. It was coursed, so I was a different, so just try this. So the suggestion A local was to try this out as apparently is fun you you can induce cognitive dissonance. I've told you spot cognitive dissonance before Berlin, we remind you, you can induce cognitive dissonance when you get people
you watch them carefully the eyes and the face, especially and actually go into a reboot mode where they were they just where there's a vacant expression for a moment and at last a little bit too long for the social situation so be like there's your bubble, blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah blah. Well, you know Flynn here. He plug guilty that. So you know you got that, then you say so did the central part five, they were told worst to look at. Is that you should see is: is the vacant expressed The last two I like. And then the next thing that comes out of their mouth. If his cognitive dissonance will be nonsense the words will fit together like a sentence but you'll hear it Neil say You know what that sentence meant gives us
like nonsense? So the way cognitive dissonance works is that the persons trying to under way that are still right and that they are and the world, even though clearly the wrong unladen, and so they invent a little patch sort of on the floor. It's like a little logic patch to connect things. They shouldn't correct and their logic patch will just be ridiculous. Does you care connects connect? Things are no connect and then they, their brain, reboots, so travel at all look. Look for the blank stare. The less too long might only be two seconds, but in the social situation is go. Look too long Rasmussen has the respite simple and on Twitter. There is a great account to follow. If you don't follow Rasmussen, the pulling company on Twitter, even
something cuz they're their social media game is very corporate its Rasmussen knows how to use twitter. The way twitter should be used. Neo, not you're, done little corporate corporate tweets like well always dose and weren't, don't say this, But the other their funding and engaging in little provocative radicalism account is for them to follow. In years, the observation that will blow your mind. You remember the twenty eight in mid term election and all the smart people said.
Probably, the reason that that the Democrats did well and Republicans didn't was probably healthcare, because I was such a big issue. People prefer the Democrats Ralph CARE, but as Rasmussen determined when they did some polling to dig down on weapons in that mid term elections on twenty eight June, they found out that the biggest issue for people who ended up voting with say against the Republicans was that's. Tromp was credibly accused of working for Russia.
So we're all looking at these midterms life had told the something like well here that the Democrats runner run a role that one those midterms so yeah. That's that tells us something here's one. It tells us. It tells us how powerful fake news, because that russian collusion wasn't true, didn't happen, there's no evidence of it, and now all the people involved are admitting their freely. There was no evidence that the president or members of his group, were actively doing anything there. There is evidence that Russia was playing with our election, but that was on that asylum trump. So it turns out there were were coming election cycle in which the russian collusion story, the biggest thing with the Democrats have going for them in the mid term, just blew up in their fate,
So we are not sure that in the presidential election year that policies even matter I mean- I really don't think anybody's policy is going to make a difference. I think people are voting for personnel these this time. For president, I Seattle did something interesting and smart and I would love to see other places do that they closed twenty miles of streets to travel, Sir residents can exercise and bacon them. So instead of every year, Yo Yo narrow little sidewalks, where everybody we bunched up, they just close the street to traffic. I think the locals can give get another garage get get back in and stuff. So if your local, you can you drive slowly in the street, but they close it and just make it a big exercise,
this place. Everybody can get outside somewhat safely, and I say to myself: I want that. I mean I've already suggested that might out so I've already Ebay's somebody to to get that idea into the. Into the powers that be locally I would expect by local turned to close their main street, because it's just too obviously good idea is just really obvious. Good idea. If you saw the mainstream where I live number of restaurants, but the others that plenty of roads and parking around that street is one block way. It's the perfect is the perfect solution. So I'm glad Seattle pull the trigger. So you're, probably watching the news that the San Antonio City Council vote we unanimously. I don't know how often they vote unanimously on anything, but they voted unanimously to approve a resolution. Labeling, the term quote
chinese virus as hate speech, and they encourage people to reported to authorities yeah. I know what you think about that: don't you, think about that, to which I ask the following question: can I still refer to mexican drug cartels work? Should I just call them drug cartels? I can call the mexican drug cartels. Ghana goes. Would that be justice raises because there are a lot of people in Mexico and as a percentage, very few of them are members of a cartel. So when you say mexican drug cartels, kind of throwing all Mexicans under the boss, aren't you know you're, not because everybody knows you're talking about just the cartel. Likewise, when people say chinese virus, I dont think they're blame
citizens of China. I don't think anybody saying we get this virus because your Chinese made everybody understands the referring to where it came from, but I have a suggestion to make everyone happy services, don't be racist. Scott! Oh! No, not watch this watch. My next move here in the EU set it in the comments. It's the China. Iris, China, as a place Chinese, could be referring to a place or people little bit ambiguous little bit open to interpretation, and so you can see whether we are the people who want to make something of it. So you're. All you talk about people. Why are you saying chinese? Do we
which I say is not a terrible point: why couldn't we call it the China virus, because China clearly respect, is talking about the government and the That's a Chinese! I hear it to you well, I'm sure the people say saying it for some weird races, reason why bother? If you can just call it the China flew, there's no ambiguity why that tells you came from Because I've done so much worse talking about China,
I bring sold at the notion that it was hate speech because I've done so much worse. Talking about China's government. I always I always hastened to say that the people are also a love, the people, the citizens, great people, the government, pure evil, you're evil. Oh I see some people like China virus the beauty of China. Viruses there's another case where there is not a darn thing. You can complain about that it gets you the same thing you wanted wishes tagging China with the with the problem, because a sort of what you wanted. But how is that? Racist is the name of the country? We didn't name their country as levels.
How about this vitamin d correlation, so I tweeted this thread yesterday, which I was sort of I'll say Extending existing conversation about vitamin d now the existing conversation was hey. This looks like this could be really of all. Maybe, as a therapy looks like people who were our invited, the dear doing worse with it so this these aims to have important so so that was already known and widely tweeted. At least I am. Certainly. Science is very firm. The understanding the vitamin d has a role and immunity, so I think we're beyond wondering if it has a role, but here's where I've extended,
a little bit and the extension is to look at all of the hot spots in the people doing the worst, and I just google them and said I suppose, yeah diabetes, Google. It says people with diabetes often have vitamin d deficiency, and I said, ok, Google, black people, I don't know what I googled. It wasn't black people, but also to see if, if your black, dear lower vitamin d, you do because it takes more son. This year's Skinner darker so I therefore wonder, like old people, less vitamin d, Overweight, Google it over People have vitamin d deficiency, you think the opposite right because of your over, you should be getting a lot of food must be viable in there
somewhere, but apparently being overweight is also respect. So anyway, I went right down the line and you about spotty city sure but the two there were standing out ass kind of weird were Spain, ITALY, and there was some thought that ITALY is older goody. I could be it. But what about Spain? Spain is bright, sunny right. And I don't know if they have any special problem. I don't know if they're, especially old, but somebody who'd been studying this vitamin d told me this. Let me say that I'm just reporting was somebody who looked into his head, so I can't. I can't tell you that this is true, but the thought is this: that in different parts of the world, if it Sonny, you still can't get enough vitamin d because of it.
We, the angle of the sun toward your country, has a big effect on the other, the good stuff getting through. If you want to do so, is not enough that you just have son. He decided to certain angle and for a certain amount of time. So apparently noon is the best time to get your son. If you ve, some screen of your face is the only covered, and he growled the sun probably also little but you're you're, not getting what you did so I would recommend of no doctor. So if anybody wants to overrule me, I'm just gonna get a common sense. Even if I go outside and by headed by hands, are the only things exposed the feels like a bad planned for small and rather where sunscreen? This is where we get more, If I'm gonna get skin cancers, gonna be up here somewhere. First, that's where the sun is so I would recommend
go out a with your short on put. Face under a had or in the shade put your legs out. And other about you, but I can remember the last time I get a sun burned my legs, I may I go I wear shorts all summer in California and I never was The scale of my legs and I barely even get had an amount there all the time. So there's something about legs, dough burn very fast. So, if you're a guy that you take off your shirt for a few minutes of fifty minutes, the news that anyway circling back to my point: apparently both Spain and ITALY, where the the covert problem is pretty add. They actually have low vitamin d because go over the sun plenty of below vitamin d, Kosovo getting the right angle of sun, or so I thought I would like you to fact checked everything. I say
this topic, because I'm way out of my comfort zone of knowledge of surpassing stuff love, at whatever credibility you want to put on Here is another thing I found you know their prisons. We were having this weird discovery about prisons that something like ninety percent of some prisons have been exposed to the virus, something like ninety percent. Yet yet the das is fairly low. So why would prisons have plenty of ill. Ninety percent infected, but also not much problem with their health was. Why would that be because men are more susceptible prison? The prisons were talking about, are mostly male prisons. African Americans more susceptible plenty of act, african american-
prison so and they don't get much sun right. So what do you expect that the prison system- it would be really dire. Instead is the opposite. Something I fell down. No, firstly after you'd have to factor in the fact that people imprisoned and to be They have a lot of jobs, dress, they probably get plenty arrest and the other they work out. They lived weights, certainly youngish sold. Probably lots of reasons are a little bit extra healthy anyway, but here's. What I found no prison meals are engineered makes sense right.
Because for humanitarian reasons you can't give prisoners unhealthy food, it would be cruel and unusual, so it turns out. I didn't see this cover that the the class of people in America who have the best diets, including supplement nation for environment. It is specifically six hundred whatever units are prison meals so Prisoners actually have the best diet of everybody in the United States and for this reason we are forced to eat, it will have a choice. Everyone is forced to give them healthy food. A choice either somebody will complain, so they also free Algeria but the low freezer. Weird word from prison situation
Could it be? The vitamin d really is eighty percent of the answer. Apparently we can check for vitamin d sufficiency, so there are looks like there's home tests are not use better, take a finger breakaway. You do, but apparently there some home tat S where you can test your vitamin d level. Here's. The question I would ask you are just put this failure as were deciding how to reopen and who can go back to work and who s to hide. How good a correlation would we find if we, the study, all the people with vitamin d you sufficiency and insufficiency. Would we discover that new,
who you are if you're vitamin d level is good, you can go back to work. Take me, for example, about perfect example. I have four com or co. Morbidity is I have for Co. Morbidity is a male over six, I've got asthma of talking about the public which, as you know, mix the simulation target you to get growers and kill. You So if I mention this publicly, I would only have three Co. Morbidity spoke since I said it in public. You know how this works right, that the simulation is looking at me in saying. Did you talk about this in public as a comb, were bitterly bastard we're gonna come for you. If there's any body is gonna get corona virus now seeking to be there, as always talk about public too much.
You're in the target was now so I beg you to gray for Co. Morbid is but on the site, I'm otherwise, unusually set Usually only if all things considered I so am very dedicated to eating right. As I am literally going outside everyday and getting my fifteen minutes or sun, California, the of opens a good guide, but presumably given my light pigmentation and give him my dedication to getting son every day and eating a healthy meal. Otherwise- and I d fish our. Would I be likely to have a bad time with chrome of ours,
or a co more abilities, including talking about it on the internet. But what if my vitamin d is good, tell me you're not curious about that, find me. The people with co morbidity, If such a thing is this, who also through the sun nor or sub limitation, all has good vitamin d. Do we have that information? Show me? The high vitamin d people in an apparently you can be too high as well. There's some thought that that that there's a right amount of vitamin d you dont want to little, but too much could actually cause problems do not just directly. We wouldn't be as good first for dealing with the growth of ours you almost got broken and was set by war.
They took asthma off the list. I thought they did you. I don't know if they did they intentionally taken off the list. Where did it quietly, stop being a list, because I noted before that I was watching the list at the seem to quietly be taken off. The list Is that what you saw as well, because it so? I think there is still some question about so there's way there's my challenge to the world instead of testing for corona virus instead of testing for anti bodies, although those are all good things to test for also could we cheaply and quickly test our own vitamin D. Lemons goodwill is that is that the fastest way to get back to work healthily check your vitamin d levels if you can get them back into a healthy range, go back to work? If you can't hide your weight, wafer
the european wait for the year. That comes lesson. Blood therapy would probably this more one plus I haven't seen by suggests that, right, as anybody suggested that we decide who goes back to work based on our vitamin d level, don't think I've heard. I may say that I'm just put it out there, because it's very study of all so it's it's is vulnerable to data. Now the words you can get the data and you could probably get the data in a way that would be fairly reliable, possess somebody's so much energy around it? Yes, services or doktor- warn them about too much vitamin d. I am told it again. Don't take any medical advice from me. That would be a bad idea, so this is not medical.
Nice, but I am told there is such things too much vitamin d so that the way you would most likely run into a problem is try to do it yourself. You have tried to do within a doctor's advice. It just like pop a bunch of vitamin deity cause you're afraid would be bad medical technique in New York City, sixty six percent of the people who got the virus got it while socially isolating, which would also suggest stay indoors. Is not the best thing. There is also a theory decide on the internet and again this is it's not like it's past some kind of yours, rigorous scientific testing, but given the nature of the virus, there's a high likelihood that a few are they shared, shared ventilation area. They are at greater risk, so shared vents,
patiently by sea in the prison shared ventilation, you a at a nursing home, shared ventilation. You might see other cruise ship, so in office, buildings so that might be one of the biggest risk factors, because there is some sense than its airborne, so you email it may actually live through the air conditioning ethnic totally. I know one person who got it by being in the same building, but not having direct contact with fact every building a person who had confirmed case a crowd of ours. So somebody in this than who shared a who shared a ventilation system.
With the neighbor downstairs. I think got it without ever having any contact or even actually knowing them than ever existed. Now. I suppose I could have gotten it Elevator or there you, carbon, male areas of the best as possible. But there is something that we need to know more about now, what yet another day of this stupidity- and it goes like this- all the smart people say we did more testing why is our governments so bad? Don't you know the everybody gets out of this with more testing? Look at those little countries doing so well with all their testing. We need more testing all this more people,
say that, but the people who are smarter than the smart people have a little bit different. Take up goes like this. If we could, Do that watch testing? We had already been doing it. Ok, if you see a tweet or like a quote from Melinda Gates recently, We should do more testing we're doing a wrong because we're not testing enough. It makes my head explode because does Melinda think government didn't have that idea yet did does Melinda gates think that Tony felt she and Doktor Burke's hadn't thought of that, and there like they're, like looking at twitter, Doktor Bruce like hers, leeches my twitter Melinda Gates, woe we need to do for testing.
Whoa. Why did I think that the work and others for several years and more testing ass, brilliant? Let's do that? I'm so angry my head was to explode and here's a problem. The task force made the mistake of selling testing sufficiency under the context of having enough to open up in these phases, but the enough. To open up in phases which the president and the taskforce repeats over and over. We have enough tat ass. You can open up in phases. According to the guidelines you can meet the guidelines we have enough tests
So the world interprets that, as we have enough tests, so wait a minute if we have enough tasks and the smart people like the living gates are saying we should test more. While I must be just to bitterly right, we must just be stupid. We have, All these tests, everybody smart, says we should test more. Why don't we use all of our existing extra attesting to do or works all the smart people say so and why did Tony shout he ever think of doing more testing. What is wrong with him and all the other experts? They are there waiting for this tweet from Melinda gates to say we should do more testing, and now they know here's was happening.
We do have, I think the seems to be true, that we have enough testing to open up in phases, but that's a very limited testing. It seo doctor's orders and is under certain conditions, so tiny percentage of the country is not the kind of testing you do if you wanna get rid of the virus. What quickly you? U needs! Do massive testing! Dr ends, you gotta do something more like South Korea etc. If we could do that quickly, do you think that we wouldn't be doing that seriously dealing? There's anything it's that if we could do a lot more testing that we would already be doing, it is obvious that the problem is, we can do it, isn't it so he says taxes is doing it right. Taxes is doing one thing very right. Which is their thereof, focusing their resources of the hospitals,
why other people were doing there were at least not doing this well, thus, for love to explain, maybe they are just Texas is doing a better job explaining it? But I have a special taxes, there's just doing a smarter. It could be it's just that it's a very capable state. They have a very capable governor there. There very practical, Texas, Texas, isn't gonna. Do anything yes estate, they're, not going to do anything. That's just politically correct.
Practical about things? So, if they're, not testing massively is because they cared, they don't have enough. Tell us how long would it take the habit of tests to do that? Have you ever seen all the news reports about how long it would take based on everybody, ramping up and lets, say we even use the war powers ACT, what whatever it takes, the best case scenario. How long would it take the ramp up be after the account be crashed so testing? Unless somebody events some new thing, they could be scaled up issues loathing so smart people saying that we should do more testing to stop doing it. Why you should be saying is how can we make it possible more testing- that one of the issues I don't know enough about, but biology through innovation was saying this is his far more informed about this whole area
You suggest there what things holding back sufficient testing in this country is the FDA. These to approve the at home gets there. That might be one disapproved baby. It will prove more, maybe boarded the store that I understand, but it could be that that's a breakthrough. It could be that the breakthrough is, is allowing home testing that letting the capitalism do it does, because, if you said hope, testing will be legal. Beyond, what's already approved, I think at least one is approved, but if you said already that they're they're all approved, you just have to show your numbers LISA standards. Whenever what would you pay to do a home test? If you can buy a hope, tat right now, and you did doctors approval. Let's say you thought it was ninety nine percent reliable. What would you pay right now with those symptoms,
so all the people who don't have any reason to think that the hamlet, why would you pay? So I would say I would pay you will my mind's different because you companies higher but let's say I'd- probably pay what resources, instead of saying what I'd pay, because I'd be willing to overtake the situations less now. But let's say I had a normal job and I was a normal person, it's hard for me to imagine, but I'd probably pay two hundred and fifty dollars, and I might pets four times a year just to test everyone's alone
So I think the bravery listless say you re pay. You beat you be willing to pay less, maybe your day, twenty five dollars or one hundred dollars so but he's so monsieur. I, like your attitude once wouldn't bet with Israel. I some season numbers come through fifty bucks, five dollars. Twenty two, Earth, ninety nine, three hundred zero, etc eyes ears. My point is illegal for more companies to make these at home testing kids? I would imagine capitalism would re able to do that pretty quickly, because the the prophet potential would be enormous, so it could be that just as the presidency's removes more red tape, but I don't know enough about the situation or even It would be safe to do that. Here is some good news. Israel gets a FDA approval for study of treatment of pluralist,
So it's a new experimental drug than Israelis gave to six critical patients who are the ventilator. So is six patients who, in the normal world, maybe four or five of them would die so once you get to that advanced stage were right, you're on the venture later, your prognosis turns really bad really fast, surf they pet. If they tested six people who were at that stage of really critical. If the drug didn't work, you expect something like three or four of them to die, gives that's just the at least Youtube.
Subject all six of them today and that wouldn't even be unusual, but I would say two to five dying is almost guaranteed. If, if you gave them a drug, didn't do anything when you say six critically ill people, that's not big enough for a proper, proper analysis, but given that, if he took any six people who are on ventilators. For this, though, not all go no ever right. Would you agree that there are not all six going home, unfortunately, that just doesn't but all six went home. Actually I am exaggerating. All six got off critical care, in other words the improved enough that it looks like they're gonna, come off ventilators and be fined six out of six.
Six out of what do you know? What are the statistical athlete was airport is telling the truth and there's nothing that we don't know. Statistically what are the odds they would get six out of six thousand wander something very low. Now, of course, is not enough to be comfortable. He started in this house who knows if there's some might be unhealthy in different ways, so we dispute as it was. Very positive repulsive I told you the other day I was getting in a debate on line with somebody who knows way more than I do about a dvd elegy in biology, etc. A professor bookstore. Then he evaded claim that I challenged, but I what
what you don't take. His I'd suggest a better way. He could have persuaded me and is this. His claim was that of the flattening. The curve did not simply delay. Did not simply delay things but rather reduced. The total number of people would die, and I said, what's the logic for that, because extending it by definition, should change the area under the curve. I what would be the mechanism that would change the area under the curve unless you had a vaccine or something- and we don't see that happening. That means not anytime soon So his argument he trotted, you approaches is. I just said about getting that, like I'm open to the argument, but I hear it
and it turns out that their there is support for the idea that flattening the curve does reduce the total number of people who get it. And now I've got to improve that argument, and it goes like this if you, if you let the the virus go unchecked and as that big, that big, section, bumper them than tells off. That would be similar to driving a car at a hundred miles an hour and then hitting the bricks. Driving lobby whilst already at the brakes? You might overshoot where you wanted to stop cause. You can't stop that quickly at a hundred miles an hour and so the virus, unchecked
It's gonna overshoot, the mark of heard immunity does is just so fast and even though you, your town, might reach heard of unity, young people still travelling and stuff. So you know I just just overshoot, whereas if you are travelling twenty miles an hour which would be a flattened curve and you're getting close to herd immunity, you can generally, play the brakes and sorted hits heard of your day now. Analogies are not persuasive in and of themselves, but they're really good for explaining a concept that you haven't heard before
for us in that way. So I would say that it is more persuasive, because I am convinced that through science, behind the concept that flattening the curve could actually save lives. Now that assumption is based on different viruses, so I would throw this caution. Conversation that if you have a virus as a super high asymptomatic number, and super long incubation period. I dont know if the flattening the curve works the same in that case, because it seems to me- and this is my argument- that if ninety percent of the people in jail got the corona virus is nothing you can do,
it. So my argument was you're. Gonna get the herd immunity, no matter what you can do everything you of hearing people say that there are some couple: there's some countries that are successfully driving the infection rates zero, to which I say, that's not a thing, a lesser, also buttoning up the border because it doesn't matter if they drive zero was loaded. Somebody else didn't
it's coming back very slowly, maybe quickly, but there's no such thing as an individual company or country driving at zero and still having an airport. So I'm seeing magical thinking about people who think we can drive at zero in this country ass. Nothing, I've, seen, magical thinking that we can never have enough tests, at least in the next several months when things are critical to test our way to do anything useful. So there's just magical things, but I do think there is something to the flooding the curve could dont know if it works with this virus. Is that long incubation period but could lower the number of people dead, but I don't think we have time to wait for an anyway, so my favorite twitter, economist, Joshua
and made the statement that a quick way to calculate whether was worth worth it to effectively to damage the economy. To say of x number lives that the numbers you would look at. Was he estimated, I think, of five hundred billion a quarter? It lost GDP. So without that's. Why you look ok, we'll lose five hundred billion quarter, but we can save ex tens of thousands of lives, potentially a billion, maybe maybe two billion basin. The high numbers here was my response, and I'm not especially good at this. So somebody, you smarter check my numbers again.
Because I was trying to calculate the porter was missing, which is how many people die if you damage to the economy now keep in mind if we are to go back to work today, I don't think the economy is mortally wounded. If we go back today, if we go back at the end of May, I also don't think the economy is more they wanted and I was stored for good twenty twenty one. But if we really tried to drive and affections doubters something close to zero, I think you're talking about August. Right and in August I'm no longer covenant that I can tell you that we can revive the economy the same way we could. If we, if we started now mean there might be a permanent effect, we can get behind China are military spending might be impossible. We can that be.
Lower? We could be less safe and a million ways throw away. I look for. I look for an estimate of how many people extra die in poverty estimate from some website. Who knows how credible it is? We know how credible if he is, but there was one estimate over in great Britain that you'd have five hundred at the high end, so this is the highest about five hundred extra DAS for every hundred thousand people impoverished. So if you impoverishing extra hundred thousand people five under them or likely to die that wouldn't so it's less work that through let's say that we wait to love to revive the economy. It causes fifty million citizens to be
poverty fished in a way that they would not have otherwise that too I fifty billion. While everything depends on how long we wait right at some point, it would be fifty billion. I don't know if that happens and junior, but at some point fifty million people would be impoverished Fifty million people in poverty at five hundred extra desperate hundred thousand checked by math would be to undermine shifty thousand extra dead per year just from the poverty, but keep in mind. Poverty is that it doesn't end in the calendar year. If you ve got that much poverty. If it's fifty million people are suddenly impoverished that doesn't fix is often a year. So I say four years so I say four years of a quarter of a million people dying extra from poverty. That's a million people.
I would say that the risk of say waiting till the end of the summer and again, nobody knows ever. These are all just got instincts based on who knows what so there's no science. And what do you say next? It's my judgment based on living on this earth. As long as I have If we were to wait to see the end of the summer, we would probably put it you. Quarter of a million to a million people at risk, but if we were to go back to work with full full subway mitigate so my delegation doc, you drew you- must all the good doctor stuff just joining you after you have to check out the early stuff and find out if I everything wrong. I'm way over. My skis on this doctor drew I'm way over my skis slowly, I need you to pull me back into the year into the place where cartoonist should be
but anyway, the poverty alone could kill a million people if we wait too long to redo real, to revive the economy, We have many people. Would you expect today from the virus? If we face back to work the way the federal government said or some version, and that the states are violating the the guidelines, but they ve been here, they get to choose its up to the states to violate the guidelines, heavily how many we like to our liking, the extra, if we just poorer. Like a glass wall around the nursing homes. We protect the most vulnerable the elderly, we're not going to go back to work anyway. That work is some portion of them and what if we just war or mass did are distancing have closed the streets and further restaurants, maybe pause the big events here, the stadium events for till the end of the year and we,
What's what? But if we did all that, that's enough Would we lose two hundred fifty thousand people, because I don't think so? I don't think so. But again I care you'll end. So anyway, I would just summarised as that Due by the argument- and I did not before because I entered the reason, but now they further reason, except that there's, some scientific or at least logical backing for the idea that flattening the curve could actually reduce. The total number of people wherever die, because when you flattened it, you do. You have less risk of overshooting heard it. So I say heard immunity was sixty percent of the public having it. If you let it go free. It goes right past that engineer, maybe stops the seventy percent.
You're, so you got you heard immunity, but that that's a lot of people got infected that needed to be, if you slow it with the fledgling the curve. The older in sharp unheard immunity. Baby hid it more gently don't overshoot it, but you ve got to calculate the economic yet for waiting that long. So that's what I think I will give you a better review of the plague of corruption movie when the actual full length movies available or if I dig into the book. So my current feeling is that is not credible. As presented cuz, you haven't heard the other side, so nothing is credible till you hear the other side, But occupational we'll work it out, I'm not gonna dismissive yet so I'm gonna give it its due of credit, because the people involved this doctor Judy.
Big events. She has credentials as she did not have credentials I'd, probably just blow off, but she does have exactly the right credentials. So, although I am not convinced, I have the full story, and all listen to the parts, I am less likely to believe or anybody else's interpretation of the inner intentions of strangers. That's where it gets dicey so, we'll see somebody says: can we under shoot too
I don't think you could understood by flooding the curve because flattening it doesn't stop so just take as long as it took, but you did it hurt. Immunity, so Merry says is pointing out there. I think she's not credible, but Christina says she is so maybe it's sexism. That makes me think she's not credible. You may have missed the first part of the periscope were address that Christina, listen to it and I watched it am I I sense of Credibility- was about revived and her physicality. Just there was something about it. There was raising the flag, but it can be. It couldn't be Saxon, because how would I know the whole point of bias? Is there
the one who doesn't know right, Karel it out I've just guarding against it, and I think it is, but I'm not the person who can rule about doesn't work. That way. I ask for now: oh Grenelle dropped off a few more files. Debar somebody says did. I recognise it as a persuasion technique. The plague of corruption lose as a persuasion technique. Well, only not especially ones not in terms of using the tools. I've noticed raising exotic, but only in the sense that is, is a credible person telling a story. So if you ve got a credible person telling the story- it's persuasive, that's it's obviously persuasive
But I didn't see, I didn't see anything that I would call technique. That goes beyond the obvious. How does it for now- and I will talk to you tonight-.
Transcript generated on 2020-05-08.