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- Imperial College COVID-19 Model, the scariest one…guess what?
- Vibration theory of persuasion
- Viewer questions
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The post Episode 979 Scott Adams: Buggy Imperial Prediction Model, Reverse Leadership, and Carrier Wave for Persuasion appeared first on Scott Adams' Blog.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Bump bump bump bump bump bump bump bump and suddenly a great com fell upon the internet because it was time for coffee with Scotlands without coffee evening addition. Yes, once again, we meet here in this digital playground, where I will take your mind and strange and wonderful directions. Oh yeah, you can learn something here
You're on your body will be alive. Have I
oversaw the yet well. Let me see, let me see if I can meet this lofty claim,
In the next in the next sixty seconds,
if you're not enjoying yourself, I lied. So that's that's my my promise to you and the clocks already started in sixty seconds. You gotta say: ok that was kind of fun.
Those kind of fun and I'd like to bring in my special guest to help you with some affirmations. You my recognize him.
It's true, you are clear and other! Mr President, you can you tell them down just be yourself.
Just like use those. I would like to thank John and mostly mostly mostly where's. It must
You should really send a pronunciation guide with your name, John, and because we don't know if it's mostly mostly or Muslim, possibly mostly.
I'll go with. Mostly, if I were you, there is a weird and wonderful thing happening,
You don't tell me everything. I tweeted that there's a guy who's when building his own trying to build
zone outdoor driven theatre for ten years? And these just about done and now it's time for our nor drive in theatres.
So he works analysing for ten years, and one is about ready to be done so.
Leave the world really means and outdoor driving theatre. So you can't.
There's nothing. You can do this as good as getting lucky. Typing lies
I think I told you yesterday, probably yesterday or maybe this morning, that I got lucky with a start back there there's nothing the substitutes for luck, all the proper
in the world is not ever going to be as powerful as luck
manipulate you lock by going where there is more of it. I talk about that a lot, but you can't change luck itself. You can simply go where there's more energy more chance. For luck.
Do you can certainly do that. So here's where I'm going with us so in twenty thirteen earth this book and it felt almost everything and it made a sort of a modest impact, but I think it was the right time
because things were starting to look we're at were entering a pretty good period economically, and I think people didn't really
We need to really shake things up or do things differently as much.
But- and here we are now in these uncertain times- and people are asking the question: what do I do now what's next, and so I think that this.
Was some kind of a renaissance, because everywhere I go assumes people are now mentioning this book ever mentioning two concepts from the talent, the idea of the talents back and
systems over goals and one of the ways I tell you that you can, you can tell us an idea is going to be viable if an idea is really gonna catch on grow, so they could be an idea or it could be a product and the thing you look for as always the same thing you look for work
people are doing with their physical body. Don't don't listen to their words yeah you carry their thoughts, but you can watch what they do with their body.
So. If somebody, for example, writes a book, that's based on my ideas, there actually doing something. That's physical writing! A book if somebody passes round makes a video so number being made. Videos talking about the ideas in the book and TIM Ferris was nice
to give a big shout out when he was asked what the best somebody Esther recently was: the best careers advice, and he just give micro career yogi. He gave me credit for
We wrote about me this book tools for tools of titans or for titans tools of towns and
now, if you don't know the name to Ferris, I mentioned him specifically, because you envy,
probably the leading person right now in terms of career advice serve him if he chose to highlight what was in this book for important, so
So I promise you that I wasn't going to do just a commercial like a child. Make sure that if I mention anything that I've done that as any kind of a price tag on- and I would also give you some value and here's the value- there has never been a better time to improve your talents there,
You still have time. You ve got it probably a lot of you, maybe weeks more a month more and I'm hearing every day. I think I think today, five or six people told me that they changed their life by changing their talents. Stack were using systems versus goal.
Over six people. Just today told me a change their life and they use those very words by the way. This that's not my exaggerated version of it. They they almost to a person. They say it changed. My life turned by business around this sort of thing, so
I would say: is one thing to know that there were some tools and is one thing to have. The opportunity is another thing to have the opportunity to use of this kind. A perfect I mean this.
The time there are a lot of people are gonna merged. In this thing with superpowers you could be one of them: the circumvent, the air, the stories so expected, except by people who have never done models and us. So the imperial com.
Model? There was the prediction model that said there is gonna, be dire consequences with the krona virus, half a million
people dying, I think, just in great Britain Sosa there was the scariest the models and, to some extent it probably influenced the they shut down lockdown strategies, but we don't know how much goes. There's that there was a lot of other information.
But it was probably one of the bigger factors people think, and today we find that their code was released. So a lot of people said hey, you know, given that were maybe running the entire planet. Based on this model. Do you think you could do us a solid and show us the computer code that produced it? What do you think happened when the experts looked at the computer kept? If you don't know the story, just fuckin gas, just fuck him
What do you think happened with the experts? Looked at the code, let me read you a few comments and
and if you didn't know,
you didn't know this was true. Before you know is true, then you didn't talk to somebody used. Others can.
Work in the real world policy. Here's a comment.
Some experts derided occurring called
a buggy mess that looks more like a ball of angel here, pasta than a finely tuned piece of programming. Shall I go on. Allow me to continue
I quote in our commercial reality. We will
fire. Anyone for developing code like this
a business relied on it to produce software, Foresail would likely go bust, said bubble on some data expert, and then this is the best part. Either do feel fully appreciate you. Maybe you have had some experience with software to fully appreciate this nice part, because a little bit
but this is something you don't want to hear about. Your software quote. The rivers
there appears to you a bug in either the creation or reuse of the network file. If we attempt to come,
ITALY identical runs only very and that the second should use the network file produced by the first. The result
a quite different. Basically, you can run the same. You can run the same fucking data through it we give a different is theirs
there's your production model that just determine how to run the world at the funny thing is the funny thing: is there there's a slice of the population
Which I count myself in who are simply have experience in this world? We fuckin do this,
I didn't have to see the code we fuck. You knew this.
No, no examination of the,
Source code necessary
I think I've been warning you. How long have I been warning?
I think I have a hypothesis for a mystery.
Doodling out for a while and the mystery is this we have so many so many states and seventy countries,
is all with their own leaders doing various different things to battle the crown of ours. Wouldn't you say
the generally speaking it doesn't seem to make any difference with the leader is right, because
they all seem to be.
Somewhere in the range and when they're not in the range there's a reason you know like they got some old people or a
home before they caught it, but, generally speaking the mystery, that's the processing industry to me is:
It feels like everybody's performing somewhat. Similarly, which makes me think that leadership is another thing, but here's what I realized today is my new hypothesis
Try this out. This is such a unique kind of crisis that it's a bottom up: leadership by necessity. Another words when
when the experts come to the leader of any country. The later says, I don't know what to do a seriously. I've never managed a corona virus crisis. Tell me what to do that
Experts, then, would go about the task of telling you leave her. What to do, but
I believe the nature of experts, the generally speaking, though, be exceptions, but the nature of experts is that they probably coordinate,
Probably it took a very probably
very short amount of time.
For all the experts in all the countries to check in with all the other experts, the World Health Organization, the CDC he's probably
people, Jackie with America to say I will
Think we got this, but what are you doing?
make sure you is that the same thing Europe's doing in what are they
when in China? So why
you would expect, because it was an expert driven solution. Is that the experts would be managing the leaders and not the leaders managing
the experts, which is a more typical situation in normal business and normal government right
mostly the leaders are telling the experts was solution to come up with, but it doesn't
does this course of guard and our leaders are not virologists or anything like it. I think leadership became somewhat unimportant.
Because the leaders were all listening to the experts. The experts were all talking to each other, and so they are different resources, so
of them said we got hydrochloric queen, we know, have ventilators useless play it. This way we ve got old people. We don't let's play this way, but it the corona Vires, doesn't seem sensitive to leadership, and I think that's. Why? Because I was a bottom up like a reverse leadership,
situation, just a theory. Here's my weirdos new theory, as I say too often, if you, if you have enough experience in different domains, which is part of it,
Can you tell us that you can see the world more clearly and there? I have now combined three of my experiences to see one new thing more clearly
run this by now you ve heard avert. You heard an early version of this, but this is a more complete version. The early version. I was not happy with it, goes like this and first all my experience at the phone company and and putting together basically digital signals that
crossed wires, not not personally pulling together those in the lab and we're always Dealey was sending carriers signals across the line.
So the carrier signal,
is just sort of the baseline signal? The guess manipulated so that when you read the manipulation of the other end, you know our gossip, but is a carrier sick
and now, as you know, and learning to play drums- and you of course know that I read about persuasion alot of those three things. So
came together, and I finally realised this- let's call hypothesis the persuasion when you're persuading other people has a carriers.
Meaning that there is something that connects people from a distance. You could be in the same room, but at a distance from you in the room
And the thing is vibration, but
vibration comes in different forms, it could be sing, it could be instrumental, it could be music, it could be chanting, it could be the pledge of allegiance, it could be praying
And all of those things have the same quality, which is that people find the same vibration. If you look at a church, for example, actually built firm,
good acoustic vibrations in the choir singing everybody in the churches. Vibrating now is a coincidence,
that in every large organization, where persuasion is important there trying to get you to be the same more committed to the organisation, more religious, maybe more patriotic, maybe of joint occult. Maybe you went to a concert and they're just trying to make you like the act sealed by the problems in all cases, you're part of a group that has been influenced by vibration, but the vibration, here's, the thumper
The vibration is not the the influence the vibration is setting up the carrier single so once every person's,
I'm vibration now you can do the persuasion, so is really just making the connection just like a phone call. The line is connected, but we still have to send something and the sending can be the.
Eriksson saw it could be the words of the pledge of allegiance worthy. You know the national anthem,
It could be whatever your children, but I think it also could be melody. You could put melody on top of vibration and by the way this is where music comes in, because it took me while to figure out the beat of a drum is actually just a viper,
vision is just a slogan. If somebody singing it's the,
literally the errors vibrating at a higher rate, but if you're being a drum bump bump bump bump bump is still vibration. This super slowed down, so it's all vibration and all of it affects us the same way, which is it just connects you. You say: ok, vibrating at the same same pitch same frequency, let's say as these other people and then the persuasion goes right and it is not
It is not an accident that every group that wants to I'm gonna say Brainwash, but it's not always for bad intentions, but there.
Trying to persuade Brainwash, convince and
once you see their patterns, it's kind of amazing.
And that's also, if ever knows, that music is better when you with your friends. Have you noticed that for me
The only music I really loved in college was the music that I saw. Somebody else enjoy at the same time, in the same room.
And until I saw somebody else and joy I didn't enjoy the music. I think what it was
As I see somebody else, sort of matching the you imagine, the music and vibration.
And between the music and the other person than I would certainly match the vibration as well. So that too was just persuasion. I just didn't know it at the time. So those were my comments for today, disabled. I have a question which they would like to ask me just like a year comments here and by the way, does is angry shilling better about
the lock them other than the obvious financial panic. Is anybody feeling that will give passes stock crash? What are the odds of a star question? Other stock market is
think completely irrationally priced and yet Rash
finally, irrationally price is the damn thing, because the by all, by all accounts, the stock market should be lover, but it's a future a future looking indicator. So it is clear that the people who have the money to invest believe the stock markets gonna be ok in the long run. So are
right, here's the ears, the fun part is not that the writer the wrong is that they are making in so so the people were Boeing, the stock market there not there, not just guessing, then it will be good they're, making a good and serve people keep the stock market. The high enough is lower than the high buzz is still still
acceptable your boggley acceptable range. If you keep a there than the people own stock or going to feel like they can spend money and pretty
soon we're gonna really need people spend money together is going.
So as long as we keep their stock market sort of even artificially high, it creates the opportunity for people to spend
in a way they want of. If they had been afraid that there were losing their stock value.
Somebody says the stock worries is praised for a trumpet win. I think that's true face masks equals carbon dioxide. Is that another story through all these crazy stories about your ear face mass was going to kill you and I think it's just a is just something
The fact that always has to be another side to every story if the main story was errors good. If let me say, if you can imagine that tomorrow there was some magic technology, they cleaned all
pollution. Are there. I all manmade pollution than just tomorrow, just clear love. There.
It will take about a week before you'd see a story this, as doctors claim their removing all the pollution from there is lowering european spots, because now you just not used to it now, if you walk into a room this little bad air pollution in the room. Well, you're gonna get sick because you didn't toughen yourself up without pollution. So there's there's, probably not anything. There won't be a story on the other side. So when I look at the mass stuff, I just think that, of course, is the story and the other side, but as Lawton just stick with this as long as it still makes sense
news into your elbow mass makes sense. That's it that's all argument, rather any chance for a common to dvd. I think so, although deafness
Like we shouldn't down by now, I don't know a bite is waiting for their, maybe less of lots of manoeuvring in the back now you have to assume that people are trying to figure out what to do in. That will bind situation. The surrender of thing well, I would put the surrender to claim of it-
you're, with emphasis on claim. I wouldn't do that too.
The sort of all the other stories of things and might save the day- I dont know that as a special place, but it was it was promising for about thirty.
Some is, as I have, asthma is very difficult wearing a mask yeah. You know what I'm expecting. Here's, what I'm expecting. I think this sunday you can have some like a mouthpiece or maybe a mouthpiece. That also covers your nose. There's just sort of like a mouth knows thing and
we ll have some electronics and maybe you'll have a far uv light so that the air
coming in another. Your mouth is just actually disinfected on the way and now- and maybe we just always wear them- you you just you just attached to your face and you'll just breathe better clean. The air. Snickers is old and she's she's little lippy today, but she's been pretty act.
I tried to make her not accept, but it's hard is Stacey Abrams going to be VP. I don't think so. I think that would be the least likely choice. Elizabeth Warren's, pretty unlikely Sorrento,
proclaimed a cure. Well, I always say what they want. The news reports and the news report reported that the ceo specifically called it a cure so whether that actually happened- or that was Faye dues well knows
felt a science of backing the masks words this boy, when you trust any science about the masks. The only thing I'm completely sure of is that a blocks droplets if it blocks jobless and that's basically the whole problem. They work.
Can Mars be colonized by humans? Inevitably, I think the colonization Mars you learn Busk is right. There is not really a question of. If we ll colonise Mars is not really an escalation were definitely colonise. Mars is used,
How long does it take vaccine so long shot? I think so I think,
vaccine is still long shot and I'm a little puzzled by all the optimism this being shown. But man do I love the Trump plan of having the military deliver it you should we get one that works. That is just that's just such a show yourself. The military doesn't mind doing it. I dont imagine that they would mind, given that it would be saving lives better. I wouldn't want to use them for the wrong purpose. Bows
laser right purpose. Just my own personal feeling about funniest book, I've ever read progression, prillie, maybe a day very book, or forgetting the name and everyday very book back into these.
We'll Nicky early in the New Trump Administration Ex Rhone. Now I don't know their relationship really you'd have to know how they feel about each other. Mars is a loser. Planet somebody says well so far, they don't seem like winners. Did you notice that the entire top left of sea then was people who die
I'm wondering if there's gonna be a lot of lot of all famous people dying just because of this weird situation, not necessarily because they got caught unawares, but it feels like they're coming in waves now. I'd said, one of the things that young people are going to experience is that, because there are so many famous people in the world and those famous people are sort of reaching a certain age that there should be. We should be reaching the point where
famous person or three dies every day. Just because there are so many right. Isn't it inevitable that will get two three or four famous people dying every day, not because there's more death.
But because there are so many them famous people, one false lag will be between now and November. Well,
you almost have to wonder if they're gonna try some Russia thing again, because Mandalay like their russian francs for a false, like those good question, lots
opportunities. I love you by the way. Have you seen Kim German lately?
look. We have to wait before we seek your journal by
I guess, as they used to live, where we know by now, but it is folly that we're not conceal for awhile.
Florida is perfect whether to kill the virus. Maybe so.
What am I getting married to Christina will we'll get married and may second, oh, that's right already passed, so we had to postpone error when it
for the obvious reason and were disorder hang loose to see was what? Because you know you can't really make a wedding plan. I mean, unless, unless you do next year, something so I think we want to do it as soon as its safe and practical, but we don't know what that is.
I could see Elon Musk, getting your space force contract baby. I can't leave recent Ruth. Better Ginsburg is hanging there. She is, she is a trooper
and eventually wonder how much she is actually participating in decisions and social values, clerks that are doing the heavy lifting, but does it make sense for still to be other job? I just don't see other make sense. My guess, I'm Kim was different. What my guess, my guess, I'm Kim so remind me. My guess on him was that he was a
Remember how many times I change my opinion on that sum is gathering money, but the longer you go, you have to modify your opinion, but the years further limit. Let me stick by this. I don't think he's healthy and remembering my opinion now so here's my pain in my opinion is that the video the photo could well be shaped
which is different from saying he's dead or alive, but if it's fake it would at least me he wasn't doing well, so there is certainly a possibility, a strong one that is, we have he's not conscious or in control, probably not dead, though I feel like if you were dead, we now it, but if he is just not in control and maybe he's sick and they don't know which way is gonna go. That might be a reason to throw us little fake video by a little time Sierra plays out and we might be in her face. But I would just put percentages, and at this point I don't think you can say he's dead or alive
Phyllis George David, seventy today, which is way too young here over those of your young.
Wait till you get to the the age where all the people, your age or die every time. You too.
Yup somebody exactly your age dive, not seventy, but eventually this can happen
I don't have much else to say. So any here keep it short sweet, and I hope that I talk to you again soon and I will see you in the morning.
Transcript generated on 2020-05-26.