« Commentary Magazine Podcast

A New World Order

2020-09-15 | 🔗
The realignment of geopolitics in the Middle East has many fathers, and Donald Trump was only one of them. What the thaw in Sunni states’ relations with Israel means for America moving forward. Also, for all the talk of the president’s “white grievance” politics, he’s performing better among minority voters in polls than he did in 2016 while white voters are fleeing his coalition.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily podcast today is Tuesday September 15th, two thousand and twenty I'm John Podhoretz. The editor of Commentary magazine happy to tell you that we've just closed our October issue. Yesterday we talked about the lead article in that issue. You will be re educated by Christine Rosen which is available for your perusal. If you did not do so yesterday, you should do so today and tomorrow and for the rest of the week and for the rest, the month at Commentary magazine dot com, or we give you a few free, reeds and ask you subscribe,
There are a lot of great things, and this issue just have abstained on fame. Andy Ferguson on stupidity offend. That article about the con man head of the American Communist Party Gus Hall, and how he saw how he bade the glee defrauded these soviet government out of millions of dollars to use for like to buy a horse harm stuff like that really a lot of really great stuff at come calmer. We give, you should VE reads: ask you to subscribe! Ah, another very important article by Josh Mirage Chick is about how Israel keep saving the world. Then we will get to that as our central topic of the show Are we being executive, editor, a green waldheim, Huldah Signorina, Christine rose and high Christine icon,
an associate editor nor Rossman high. Now I dont so just more objects pieces will keep saving the world focuses on IRAN and and Israel's history of preventing nuclear rivulet proliferation in the Middle EAST starting up. So the Siroc reactor, destruction and nineteen. Eighty one, moving on to the destruction of the burden syrian reactor in two thousand and seven, and then amazingly mysterious series of explosions this summer that seem to be designed to degrade and retard. The on rushing IRAN Nuclear programme at the tonnes and up Fargo in in IRAN this this summer, but another article that we have in this package by Hussein. A Bachar deals with the
the change in the reality of the Middle EAST that is represented by today's remarkable event at the White House, where President Trumbull wealth, Prime Minister Netanyahu and the heads of rain and the United Arab Emirates to sign this normalization deal three. Trees, Israel's first peace treaty with a out with an arab nations since Jordan twenty seven years ago, and and this rush apparently too among the many arab states in the Gulf and elsewhere too, acknowledge reality, say Israel's here to stay and recognise that Israel is actually a and maybe an ally, but somebody with whom they have a commonality of interest when it comes to dealing with the irredentism, millinery and regime in Tehran, witches
Israel's greatest enemy, but is also a great enemy to them. Sonny arab countries, because it. Wishes to establish its form of Islam over the sunny form of Islam. Is it It is an extraordinary day. It is the nature, diplomatic achievement would say,. In memory certainly goes far beyond anything that the Obama administration ever produced in terms of finding some way to go Eu Jaeger and rewire some of the the Mother Board of of the world's geopolitics Abe as somebody who worked very closely on these these articles. What are you, what do you make of today's event? It is like the most hard.
News of a year without question. Perhaps the only genuinely good news of the year- and it is a case that exemplifies this idea of the consensus of something being not just wrong but diametrically opposed to what the reality was when Donald Trump decided to move the? U S embassy to in Israel to Jerusalem. The expert opinion had it that the so called arab street would explode, and this would engender resentment and hatred across the arab world. If this is The arab hatred of out of Israel and the United States bring it on what we need much more of this kind of hatred.
You know there is already within without the context of food. Lobal geopolitics in particular the ongoing com, between them. The sunni states and ran- I wasn't: nothing was twenty seventeen that there was of Full fledged insurrection every moment in Bahrain, Bahrain is sort of IRAN's Taiwan. It's it's not perceived to be in Tehran to be legitimate, independent entities, and there was a lot of protests there in the belief that they were being fuelled by around twenty seventeen and bahraini security and intercept explosives and weapon shipments from Turann moving into Bahrain, so was an entirely, not exhaustion, assume that there was an indigenous elements to it, but it was part of this campaign,
that was unleashed inadvertently, perhaps, but with the tacit acceptance of the Obama administration over the course of the negotiations over the J C p away the same with clean you deal. All of this is an outgrowth of Barack Obama's effort to re. Read change your politics in a region which has spectacularly ironic considering that is the democratic. The chief democratic attack on George W Bush is foreign policy that he was negligent in his efforts to shaped geopolitics without any understanding of the domestic local Tribal maybe he's an affiliations and the history of the region and with your breast it to think you could reshape this region after centuries of conflict
and they proceeded to do just that and effect has been an environmentally the spectacular failure of their policy, but a unintended consequence switches and this flowering of peace between Israel and these Sunni states. What what's interesting about this, of course, is that the the idea that the embassy should have been moved to Jerusalem from TEL Aviv was a bipartisan policy, vote of the Congress in ninety ninety six sign into law by Bill Clinton and then suspended year after year after year after year? I'm on emergency grounds that tat things had not we're not safe enough for it to happen so much so that after twenty years of this, it had become a kind of.
Like the status quo Ante was you could never do it? You could never do it and the only reason to do it was some kind of ideological sop to turn Zionists, rich Jews. Evangelicals. Who wanted this to happen? I think that there's a Fascinating lesson here, which is that move, which you know was symbolic and I think good, followed. U S, law, I end Jerusalem is the capital of Israel, where the seat of government is and where the canasta meets him, where the Prime Minister lives and all that, but it may have been.
Signature moment here, because it represented a statement about the United States. That said, we acknowledge, and the world down needs to acknowledge that Israel is here to stay permanently for up and that by making that crossing that final Rubicon, that says that Jerusalem status is not really tentative. Jerusalem is not gonna, be out of of jewish hands or israeli hands that the permanence of Israel may have been become fixed in the minds of The sunni arab leaders, who are still had already made their peace with Israel in the sense that they really didn't warrant, get us much effort to try to destroy it anymore, but the thing of saying it's been seventy years. The United States is moving its embassy there. The Palestinians are hopeless. We wasted billions,
dollars on them. They can get nothing done. They haven't impeded or retarded Israel, in any way Israel is flourishing growing and economically strong. The Palestinians are we and divided and foolish and victims and how for them are our cats pause of the Iranians anyway, so Baby things really have changed and we should We should accept this new reality, so this symbolic thing, which literally involved you know moving from one building, to another, and there isn't even of a real the embassy in in Jerusalem at the outlets vice and big uncomfortable in fancy in Europe bastards residents or anything like that, may have been startlingly important. Geopolitically amazing,
Interesting thing is that so that nobody, even any of us who would have said, add, there's no Arabs the Arabs as people. I think we did say this at the time. You will see what the arab street does. China were sick and tired of hearing about the arab street, always reacting violently too, to Israel's bad behaviour and, of course there were palestinian riots and palestinian Rockets, and things like that, particularly from Gaza. But but even there, the idea that maybe this this was an important way station on the way to a changed mentally. I mean I'm not sure it occurred to anybody, including tromp or David Friedman. The ambassador word Jason Green blood.
Help, negotiated or or trump himself or baby. For that matter. I think that is totally true, ended and an excellent point, because up until then, I think what we all expect it was this. This status quo to continue the status quo in this regard. Being that countries like that those there that the USA and I'm Saudi Arabia would keep working quite closely with Israel sort of in the shadows. Against iran- and that was itself that was as encouraging as we thought things would be. That was a sort of good enough change that we thought that was the sea change that you every once in a while there'd be these statements leaked why arab leaders, saying that we don't really did we have no need to look on,
to realize the enemy anymore- and I think the but the but the overt change in and be being very visible symbol of of that that the permanence of Jewish Jerusalem. In that sense, I think really did then bring that out out of the shadows in the daylight it was obvious at the time, because when this occurred in May of twenty eighteen There was an eruption of violence in the palestinian territory, one palestinian territory in Gaza, where the Hamas urged a lot of protest and violence, and they searched the board her and they threw bodies that IVF and through grenades, molotov cocktails and The images were all over western television, but when you didn't hear, was any statement of support for this activity from Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, half a dozen other states in the
region and the absolute silence of the response from the West Bank, which has an entirely distinct political culture economy, foreign policy. It is a distinct state from Gaza, where there was no irruption, no similar activity in response to this the so this move by the United States and I should have been the indication here that the terms of engagement here, a very different than there were ten years ago. Will that that's? Actually, I think that tunnel shift is really something that hasn't been. Examined thoroughly enough, but you're absolutely right, because even if you look at how the path Simeon cause is now being treated in evening and aspects of mainstream media, which is usually very sympathetic. There is now more reporting This idea of you know honestly, geopolitically Having your permanence I speak one in either a victim or martyr, it is, is, does not long term do much for your actual people in their concerns, and I think that
there is now more criticism of that when you know the palace in response to these accords spend the same old Saint Maur. Their spend a little push back on that, like a really like kind of questioning that I think that actually, in terms of the domestic political machinations around the sort of thing is really interesting in the same way that there's a beautiful irony in the fact that you know I wins, the Nobel Peace Prize before he's done anything and now tromp, is being nominated for basically cleaning up the mess. That of how difficult this is an idea that signature ending of that. But so you have a two step here. It's an interesting to step, which is that probably this breakthrough would not have been possible without the worst foreign policy. I know every people say that they are going into Iraq was the worst foreign policy move of the owl time that the war- chosen foreign policy? We negotiated move of the of the last thirty years. Was
IRAN deal in the sense that you know it. It was all be based on a bizarre theory that, by releasing Hundreds of billions of dollars to IRAN and nor and doing whatever you could to start a process of normalizing relations with IRAN an assent. Acknowledging that it could have a nuclear weapon after a gap in time that the countries that IRAN was is basically at at that religious war with turn around around and said if there is the the tropic effect of this, deal, is going to be that IRAN is gonna, be nuclear power and is gonna, have the whip hand and eventually is gonna. Take MCA, which is
what do you know IRAN wants in them ultimate did is to become the guardian of MECCA, and, and so they they there. No choice but to change direction. People they had already. They had already taken Baghdad Bay by Irrevocableness Tacit acceptance, running with some sort of a forest at one that would supplement the rocket defence forces which, in twenty fourteen, we were shown by ices to be hapless and incapable of of defending the kind I they needed some other external force that wouldn't maintain security in the north. The gave it over to them. That was the catalyst and cannot just briefly digress, because Being in the open its necessary to defend the iraqi conflict, we secured strategic objective we set out to secure Saddam Hussein's regime has gone. The threat that are represented, neutralize the people who say if the worst for in the world are now calling the Good WAR the war in Afghanistan, the one we lost when negotiating with the Taliban, to real
all them in power right now, that's a lost objective. We didn't make that one work we ve made Iraq work until extend that it was lost at all. It was lost as a result of american acquiescence do around. We have since been rolling back uranium influence in Iraq over the last four years and tool substantial success. Actually, the political leadership in Iraq is much different than it wasn't in twenty seventeen now and much more hostile to a around. Pritchett objectives continued the mouth we continue to secure victory, rack self, rolling people who beholden to this to them nine vision of what the Iraq war was. Gonna go go reads: greed up on events of the last decade. There was a great rant and I really enjoyed a thank you, and I want it also. Something occurred to me, as you were talking that
in years to come. You know when, as always happens, there is a re examination of presidencies and all this, and obviously you look at the trumpet, you think well, that'll never really happened right, they'll, never Willoughby reexamination, because via the serve the elite concern, mercy of opinion against him is so overwhelming But of course, people also want to be interesting and say interesting things and do that and I I think, that is in relation to some re examination of Trump. Let's say Assume Biden went in November that some point in the late aims. Early ninetys it began to occur to people who had been horrible antagonists of that related to really thought that the Jimmy Carter presidency was the worst part
since he ever and a nightmare and was leaving us down the path to destruction all this that it was just terrible in every way and horrible and monstrous, and then you know people then looking and taking a look here, and there saw interesting things that were surprising. Against their own ideological presuppositions. That. The real deregulatory frame of the nineteen eighties part of the way that Ronald Reagan helped liberate the economy from the shackles of. New deal government actually started in the Carter administration. The device the relation of the airlines, the deregulation of weather or that, the change in the way that the inter violet warring stuff telecom and the boring stuff like
changing the status of the Intercostal Waterway system, which I know sounds like the most boring thing. I've ever heard, but there were. There was a very rational dating back to the bureau Canal Days way that the intercourse a waterway system was was was was handled and it was done in a very rational, orderly way that that gave people a sense of how you could properly but wait government and industry and stuff like that and in foreign policy terms. You could see this with Trump you could, really see when wiser heads prevail and things come down. All of that that in that when it comes to the Middle EAST, he will be seen as a even by you know: that's not by the death of the ban roads furnished
spend roads idiots, but others that You will see that he was a create, a change of force for positive and creative change, and maybe that was you know inadvertence were it certainly wasn't, Sir planned it wasn't like a game theory. The chess, but are the opportunities were created and the Trump Administration took advantage of them one of the ways it took advantage of them was by making it totally clear to the sunny arab countries and to the world that the United States was tilting unambiguously toward Israel, and not only was it tilting that way, because, more generally speaking, even when you have a hostile president like like Obama, nonetheless, american policy will tend to be more friendly to Israel that not in
As far as public opinion, sixty percent of Americans have a favourable impression of Israel and fifteen percent of the Palestinians, but that, but that it was Trump said I am Israel's friend of the Israelis, our friend. We do we're doing for them things and that's how it's gonna work and even their this violation of the norm may have the spark to people saying yeah well, but that we serve thought that all long now it's now it's open and we don't have to play with these niceties trump- has laid the american cards on the table, and so we got to deal with this issue reality, and that's where I mean, although you know I, I personally hate to admit it, because when when this is applied and other aspects of policy making by the prisoner drives me insane, but the at the kind of Agnes and these suspicion. The way things have always been done that has brought a puzzle
In response to your right, I mean the kind of the whole thinking outside the foreign policy bonds is what worked in this situation saying that I have been allowed, is what worked in this situation and what I've done in other contexts it's a disaster, principally domestically, but in this case that's where there is a positive effect to some of them. Style of his presidency from the rhetoric of Cairo unsympathetic to that. But I do think it gives the president far too much credit them. That he, no doubt and within its conception of a changing geopolitical political equilibrium in the Middle EAST is nonsense. The intellectual infrastructure was therefore a decade proceeding his presidency. He, sir, himself with the people who understood this and wisely deferred to them? To that extent, he deserves credit for that, but I am trying to turn back. Doesnt doesn't wash with me. This is not something that he came up with
I have to disagree in the sense said he. I think you should get more credit because its and it's not to be had some grand strategic vision, hear what he has and what? What are you? What he's had a truly uniquely, I think, among occupant. The White House is this sense of well? Well, let's just acknowledged reality. Here I mean this: they did it. Is what it is. Will what? Why are we playing silly game and it's that sense, and that is that is a pre, bold thing actual time I got it. I dont disagree. I came up when I got my grab agree and I are in that field at least sort of hunger. The fringes of the professional field of diplomacy ended his skull, erotic and beholden to long defunct concepts of how the diplomat process should work, and I was sort of supportive of this strangle. The state department through attrition process
they had a really on in this ministration, which forced a lot of professional diplomats out, and everybody was terrified of that by that. This is an institution that needed a shake up and needed some external pressure on it. I agree to that. However, he didn't you didn't, have a strategic vision hearing. Did it wasn't his ideal I agree, and I am sure aid doesn't think he is a is like enough. I had it s an x y and Z will happen and then they'll be given an absolutely maltreating right across the Middle EAST. It is that when you, when you alter the terms of the discussion, the terms of the discussion that that has that has secondary tertiary consequences or were ages up, makes opportunities possible and then you also then have to take advantage of the opportunities and inner had not had not to draw two too serious.
Algae here. But you know, when Ronald Reagan came in and said he did not like the way arms control treaties were had been negotiated thus far with the Soviet Union, and he went to him- he did to major things right, one of which is, he went to Gorbachev and said. Look let's. Let's stop let's stopping foolish here, we'll just get rid of all nuclear weapons. Is that what the whole point here is like what white? Let's just get rid of all of them and basically was Gorbachev who had to sick. You know it was not. It was you know like I'm, so you know you want to negotiate arms control. Let's negotiations could travel just get rid of all nuclear weapons. I dont like them their bad I'll, get rid of mine. You get rid of your
right and then the other thing he did was billed star wars, and why was it not was also incredibly, oh, my god that was so destabilizing? What was the theory behind star wars? It was let us make nuclear weapons, let us do we can't make nuclear weapons unusable or unwilling or unnecessary are unreliable. Whole point is that it was a different framework about the way in which the council, once creative policy by the way which was containment, was a creative policy, was it was with a way of dealing with the reality is of the time that then hardens into something sclerosis back, because you need to shift and change and if, if, if the Soviet Union in the nineteen seventeen my days starts becoming an aggressive
leaning imperialist state that starts threatening the world order. You can't then deal with it solely in terms of coming up with nonsense. The arms control deals that that that enshrined in its numerical superiority in nuclear weapons like you need to upset the Apple cart song. Ok. I really do hope we're getting into a theoretical discussion about deterrents, because That's my wheel house, and also it would lead us into the notion that the earth I got some money, which was the other good thing that happened in twenty twenty four being the head of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard core the rights leading military terrorism at them? leading official in IRAN, whose basic who basically integrated terrorism with its military posture, broke a guy.
So again, neutralised him in January, and there was a theatrical retaliatory response from romanian territory into iraqi territory. But what looks like the State Department, explicit and contention here Secretary States had been along the lines of wind deterrence, has broken down, and if you really believe that, then you have to act said, the tourists have broken down in twenty nineteen, because of the Iranian were testing our resolve in the Gulf testing resolve they were strike. That's what I mean when they were executing with really highly coordinated, drawn strikes and the world's largest petroleum facility stressed at stake piracy on the in the strait of Hormuz international flag vessels of the sort of stuff that we would be in a world before tracking when most of the world's oil came out of the Middle EAST would be Well, it you'd have to have an international response in order to maintain the worlds
energy mine would have led to an oil panic by the way, the other one where we would have been in another like gas, oil would have gone up to eight dollars. A gallon am gas whereby Anna and we would have had a Anne and a world where global panic on how the people who work in a pro Randal folks went Are you saying that this is also destabilizing and arrange, gonna retaliate again, and then this is We're gonna, make it worse and You know we're nine months later now and it's the tourist, Pretty I've been restored, but then we got this report yesterday. Two days ago, I think actually leaked reports in Poland. Go, suggesting that IRAN is thinking of retaliating against the United States. Further Solomon strike by targeting the Handbag manufacturer, who became Donald trumps Ambassador to South Africa as a retaliatory response,
And the predictable hand wringing we seen as all look this year comes. This is the response that Donald Trump invited with his reckless foreign policy and attacks on IRAN, and that we get what we deserve here, sort of our drink that sort of that's the implicit, implicit Location near is that in a week we really deserve this should have some ambassadors get killed, and that is wish for the lights and wait a wish father without first of all, it's not it's not a failure of deterrence, because we're not talking about any sort of deterrent effect as a result of this operation. If it were to occur, that would be an escalating response. It would prompt the exact opposite of deterrence. He also the incessant, maintain itself turns into something. As advocate more analogy demonstrates turns, isn't something that just happens, and then it
just in perpetuity. It is a garden that you have to maintain forever works it covered with this is such a weird stuff. Ray to right. It's almost like IRAN opened its burn. Balkan was like a high while this one, this we're gonna mean it's such a strangely weak kind of floated thing, that's being positive. Here I mean I mean I'm not questioning the evil, I believe, the story, but it is it's an odd moment to float an odd story. It seems to me. Leads me to believe that it is in fact just bluster. Well, I mean that's years there two glass back: that there is the one who is like this, really wrong intelligent somebody just swept up all the post, it notes from the last ringing Revolutionary Guard retreat and just beneath the they couldn't. Run up against the wall or the trade policies of the world has like. Ok in October, we goin war with rang his trunk used when the selection- those are the two in gaining responses. Yeah did it Ok, can I sell it? Isn't your you said like all we should be dealt with there is
weird deserve this if our ambassadors get killed because look a reckless, we are. This is a total out of left field, analogy that I want to make, but the horrible wildfires in in in the Pacific and the Pacific, northwest rhythm and California up the organ, these unbelievably disturbing pictures of the orange sky for days and the fact that no one seen the sun in Southern California, for you know two weeks and the air quality in all of this right and- and we have these two or three incidents, apparently that promote, provoking incidents right. This gender reveal party were some of the lid off some pyrotechnics device that started the forest fire in California. That, then did just simply could not could not be stopped and then an arson event in Oregon
but apparently then brought it from the north down and all of this and this whole question of whether or not one of the reasons that this conflagration has happened to this on. The whole is the mismanagement of the forest lands Bob largely under federal control, by the way, so that Trump Tramp Administration does get a pass like this. Is the interior departments responsibility if, if basically there's ten billion pounds of tat? you know, lying on the lying on the forest floor, and no one is a sweeping it up. That was the federal government's responsibilities we got up. But what happens when this happens? What happens is its climate don't look at me, I'm governor gave a Newsome, don't look at me. This is climate change and you better do something about climate change.
Tal, climate change, and you bet it's all like climate change, climate change. Look a squirrel I didn't do it is not at. This is not of this not of man made event which apparently it it is. A man made event. These were. There was a forest fire that was started by it out a single event, but it's all. Climate change like there's, never been afore fire before our car conflagration in the forest fire before, because the photographs or so bad? And what I mean by when I say that there are some connection here. Is there is we deserve this quality too. This is happening as we do. We have mismanaged the earth We are destroying the earth and Donald Trump doesn't like doesn't believe in climate change and and therefore
you know we are reaping the whirlwind and we deserve it. We deserve it and everyone is going to die and we deserve it and that that's that's all there is to it, and it is a very interesting thing. It's got this I've quality of grasping at the thing that cannot be controlled, certainly not immediately, which is climate change in the sense that you know you can't like Flickr Switch and stop climate change, and twenty twenty by saying, don't look at me. I didn't fail and you know what's more, if you were smart, politically smartly really wanted to blame Donald Trump, you do it. I just did to say, sixty seven percent of the forest land in the Pacific, Northwest and in California is owned and controlled by the federal government, and if there has been negligence and bad, Richmond? It is at the federal level and they are, they are to blame and that's Donald Trump and that's the you'd have that's the executive branch
That's my analogy. Anybody wanna Well, yeah I mean it. I mean it's politically viable, I suppose, but it's it's not a hundred percent. True gathers federal land management is is a thing here, but it's not as though this is a hundred per cent federal. There's this the state has state local tribal. Interests who are responsible for the young and the other under forget who get twenty eight? There was a twenty eight in Hell. We legislate have analysed office study that talked about overcrowded forests and the need for limiting timber harvests in Kenya, containing amount of trees of the labelling knew the problem exists and this estate level. So you can point around, but the California, there's a whole lot of blame There is also I mean, there's a sort of vaguely quasi religious aspect of the sacrifices that one must make to climate change like, for example, California is now limiting the A power you can consume there are.
Blackouts, which is public policy as though power generation, fossil fuel journal generated power generation and California is responsible Climate change, when no one in their right mind would actually say that even people who were really true believers in the climate crisis, which no one would whatever believe that, if we traffic lights for an hour in California. That will be saved a global problem right for their own sake. Now as it were, talk it's me. It's like this, offering wrote to the climate, change God or the political climate change gods aid. We know we're talking about trees, we're talking about trees at a controlled trees, and but there are people who love a good tree, and you have something to tell us about how to get trees. The best possible way short. Well,
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Different pulse in Florida show, and at least one a nationwide Paul Show Donald Trump outperforming among hispanic latino latina Latina Ex voters eyes compared to a where he was in twenty. One thousand six hundred and one Paul, has him in Florida close to forty percent or it worked at I'd with fighting among the in the hispanic vote in Florida, and there is a kind of general panic sense that biking is underperforming with this sat critical democratic constituency and that this could have really Carlos.
Quences. Ah I I enjoy a liberal panic as much as the next guy. I do think that there are times when these stories come out. You know, and our sir promoted among the constituents that thereabout, because there is a real this battle going on in in democratic circles, and people who are professional, Hispanics and professional Atinas want money. Went there constituencies to be served and want tension, and one things talked about in the campaign that urban Sudan would like. Advise on their radio stations and and and you know for all that kind of stuff done, and so they have it. They actually have a vested interest in kind of waving, a red flag to see if they can get the attention of
of the campaign, so I'm I'm always a little wary and and then of course, Trump also has this sum. He wants to be able to say that he is doing better among all these groups in our African Americans and Hispanics all this, because this is part of his vanity in general, that somehow he's the greatest present ever for fur, for black people or spanish love him getting Loves taco ball, and then they love him too. So I don't know what you guys make of it. I'm a little Leary tempted to believe this. This notion that term, ah you know he's gonna outperform me now. George W Bush words Apple. Well, maybe think about the question. This way once binds net it's too hispanic motors, because the only thing I have heard the binding campaign consistently talk about is kids in cages. That's a pretty small flies that that's actually a message that the progressive left enjoys hearing over and over again. But when you look at the start of the history,
community in this country and how The first is and some of its concerns that doesn't necessarily speak to him. I mean the most interesting. Poles are the ones about hispanic. Our kids views of immigration cause. That's all it's really fascinating stuff and its. I think the Trump Administration is hoping to exploit the kind of law abiding hispanic vote that doesnt actually won the totally open borders For example, so either actually it's a genuine question. I do not know what binds message on hispanic voters is. I haven't really heard one from him and they don't fit easily into the progressive, less message that obviously Harrison Biden have committed to How do you spell Ben Nelson yesterday say something that's pretty interesting and I do have a very peripheral contact with this. This community, insofar as my wife is part of it, but then Nelson Senator former Senator from Florida says you know, what's not gelling for for a Joe Biden like I should have isn't cuban american voters
the mexican american voters, its puerto rican, american voters, poor regions and in the in Florida in the northeast, in particular on their just not responding? and the way they didn't know, Obama years and that Sir that's a red flag- and I haven't said Estonia to a tribute that tab right- but you know if I would take a stab there- is the the Woke ism, has overtaken the democratic parties, a real turn off to everybody I speak with. Who is one region? For example, the most of em around me is anecdotal, but most of them around your more conservative. So it's probably not universal thing, but you know just to take one aspect of this. This zealous com, meant to using the word latin acts, letting blottings whatever you as someone who has no contact with the unspent community. It is designed
just you are inclusive and understanding of this community and bathed in it, and it prissy communicates the precise opposite that you have no contact with these people except Rio, What right so so, Christine's your ear ear your observations well taken because, of course, how can there be a message for the for the hispanic community Cubans make up by thirty percent or supplement megabyte very large element of the vote in in Florida. But no else, having their a bunch of Cubans in New York and in Jersey. But. So and they have a very specific interests that tromp has served. Rather Trump has tightened Obama's, loosening of of of the of the restraints on Cuba.
Which highlights is associated with a mean that binds us here with that right number one number two, despite propaganda for years, that said well younger Cubans, all warbled they want normal, is that's all older Cubans at all as well. I mean, if trumpets, getting sixty to seventy, no sixty five percent of the cuban vote. Then I am if that, if that's what happens- and maybe that's that's that's a lower statement, but it would appear that the tightening, rather loosening, is something that the cuban vote is interested in, but there What's up nothing in common with the California people vexing into some California, or people of dominican, descent in New York or Her coat, you know cause Colombians and as an orphan regions like they're, not they all speak one language, and so they, if, if they are in fact native spanner speakers,
and they watch to television channels that most of the rest of America don't watch. You know but there are other tell Mondo alone a vision, but there are other wise, a disparate population that It is nonetheless reliably democratic and why? reliably democratic. It's the same question you might ask about India, Indian Americans, interesting Indian Americans from enough from South Asia. Very entrepreneurial. Very, very well to do. You know, came here open motels did this. Did that the other thing there are seventy thirty democratic voters like Jews are so where does, of course so
what is it that make them all live. Why are they all liberals? It doesn't make sense. It makes sense, because the Republican Party is the White Party and they are not white and that that is basically, as I see it, to the extent that people have an identity that it does not feel fully white and fully white Christian. They will tend to gravitate to the Democratic Party, because the Republican Party, which was growing in its emphasis on economic connections and various other things, has none unless retreated
back into its own form of identity. Politics so said that I would remind aging appeal until isn't there this potentially this larger, quite large irony at work here, whereby so the GNP is the White Party, and I were talking about constituencies that that aren't white and Donald Trump, it has been. You know, held up by his enemies as a beacon of White actionism, and you know this one of the worst most overt white nationalist shift and in you know american governance we ve ever seen, and might he not somehow you have used that to get shocking amount of support among minorities by by just rejecting
out of hand and not pandering to them. While lot. Look, I'm in things are that the law and order stuff is is changing its end, its resonating, particularly with minority voters. At this moment, Firstly, pull it came out yesterday and showed almost two thirds, roughly almost two thirds american sixty five hours, say that maintaining law and order is a major problem in this country. Right now, with eight percent say it's not a problem so. This is a resident issue. Now Republicans and independence will mean GEO P. Most likely to say that, but the people who disagree our non white or art or white, Non Republicans, Non Republicans or black sixty percent or any other re. Sixty point six percent agree with that statement. Were they agree with Republicans the people who are saying this? Is fine this year are white Democrats? What so one way in which you might
day that Trump has you know a weirdo secret weapon among Hispanics would be I hate to put it this way cause it's. You know. I've been taken out of context. A guitar harbour would be an over emphasis by the Democratic Party on black voters. I mean you know: it's been three months of black lives matter you're, you know hispanic in the United States, maybe you're like well. What about me? You know why weren't you talking about me. Oh, I don't know if that's real or you know if this is the way the people it all a zero sum game. You know, but this is a problem in in ethnic constituency, politics in general,. Mean Hispanics are a larger element. The people that these Census Bureau calls hispanic
make up a larger number of Americans than African Americans after him as make about twelve percent of population Hispanics make up about sixteen percent of the population that a big list as Hispanics Alot of people who don't really makes sense as hispanics like people knew Secondly, men here for three hundred years is our last names and in a z you know I mean their people Martinez who have been here you'd almost as long as the Mayflower you know, but but nonetheless, it could be that their that that that the stress on on on black voters is having a weird blow back to against Biden. This notion
all the constituent service in the Democratic Party is now aimed at one group in one group, especially and if you are somebody who's whose group seems particularly interested in or dependent upon or internet or or wanting government assistance for thing. Then you are worried that one group will get it. You want when you see this in the tug of war about the terms being used, I think because it's not just latin exits, also by popular where we have a preference pronounced the black, indigenous and people of color. So you see you'll, sometimes see like Biden, campaign, surrogates and spokespeople using bypass and that's supposed to include Hispanics, but I and I'm curious about whether there has been any pulling her or study of whether his? How many has been people consider themselves people of color, which is at present Taylor distinction that often used in these political contacts and
I would just say Why- Hispanic, because that that distinction does matter to the people who are gonna find themselves in that way, and you know there is that in some odd way, this is the identity. I you know intersection reality monster coming to roast for Democrats because they created a system in which everyone supposed to identify by these you know immutable characteristics and now, when people are start start fighting about, if mean this is what you get an in some weird whale, though AIDS right, the trumpets identify as the white supremacist. You know, President it says because a round talking about how is white, silk throwers regret it Ernie, that's really all your hearing from a lot of people will you go. There also has an effect identity thing Nikolinka than your content and, if my best and twenty fourteen that
a mere Americans, panics millions of Americans panics, we're gonna, find a stagnating, our spanish origin and two thousand identified as white and twenty tat right because right well, they didn't change, but their cell perception that right or or board. These are just. These are literal demographic changes, which is to say that of voters, the ones who call themselves the Spanish die They were replaced by new people between the ages of eighteen and twenty five, who were by this point our third generation, and do not have that a failure, or are or are products of a mixed marriage and therefore be identified with the other side of the matter that's it that's why these things cannot be immutable exactly as the biggest problem, woke identity. Politics is that they proceed these traits to be mutable when they are very fluid and very based in self perception, and, like my wife, talk about this in a she's half hispanic, I have to wish the notion that we were white or white adjacent is
recent phenomena couple of generations ago. We would not be considered white adjacent any will you know this is by this. Is my joke of mental this many times in the past? But if you, if you told my grandfather, the immigrant from my from Let's hear who spoke of the attacks on all his life and was a milk man that he was white like Rockefeller, he would fight you were an insane or that he was white like like the Italian down the block or the irish kid who was beating up on my father. You would have thought you were crazy. They had nothing in common with each other. He was a Jew. They were irish. This one was italian. There was no such thing as white. You know that's the joke, about white supremacy in how America is a country where a white supremacist country is that is that
founding of this country. There was no. There was no idea what everybody get up with the Scots. Were we at war with the Irish, the Hatfields were fighting the Mccoys like I eat at this was not the great, I think divides of the 19th century. Oddly enough were not black and white, they were you know they were. Klingon Protestant, they were irish him. You know Irish in English. Well, that's the weird irony, of the present his view of identity and raise being projected backward. I sent you got and I'm obviously this this gets under my skin terminal. You bet I sent you guys yesterday on our on our old text chain that you know a story is now being inserted into regular present day reporting. So there was a story in the New York Times by Peter Baker, about the eyed, the controversy about the Eisenhower memorial. This going in the national law is finally reopened and he just you know I'm casually puts in there. You know you ll
so many leaders in our countries. Patsy was a white. You know: hetero patriarchal, do justice the kind of weird language by doing politics, completely unnecessary. It's a signalling that ice now for present day progressives and when they look at the past they can. They have to impose that signal on the pass in a way that is completely a historical and an as John Story, shows utterly ridiculous suggested it doesn't make sense by the way. Can I just though there was a fast moving, the Peter Baker did that story Eisenhower. So I just I just went and looked up the number. You know he was Didn't you know why, though, only for white people and all that right? Ok, so in nineteen, fifty let it have a census of nineteen. Fifty found that the population that This was a hundred and fifty million and the non hispanic why population? The United States was a hundred and thirty one million meaning. I believe that the way
population. The United States in nineteen fifty was eighty seven, maybe eighty eight percent something like that. Eighty five, eighty six, eighty seven percent so yeah he was he was. What is that even mean? Like you know, you know that's aid. Even now it's seventy two! Seventy three percent! Something like that, and so this is the bizarre thing of accounting by race. Is that if you want to create the conditions under which there will be a white supremacist movement? And there will be, there will be identity politics. In which whites become a significant, separate self, conscious, identity coalition white win like this is not
this is not a winning strategy. This is two thousand and sixteen all over again. Big time I mean, if you start sorting people by race as aggressively as people are starting to do on college campus. You know what these things where people are now starting to talk about, having affinity groups that are white only because they need a safe space to talk amongst them as long twenty years from now. The way I believe that its eggs will still be sixty nine. Seventy percent and everybody This will make up thirty percent and the whites be dominating and if they are self consciously wide and have the understanding that you need to cobbled together a racial interracial, ist identity. Nor to have a position in a country that has become too the balkan Ized. Well, they get. They get everything, that's a big majority.
It is literally, it is only in a pluralist country that minority rights are respected, to the extent that you don't then make sure that they never get to be president or anything. But we should make explicit the irony here this in the context of the twenty twenty racist, that Donald Trump is doing better with minority voters. Where he's not doing better is with my photographs, white voters are fleeing Donald Trump added spectacular re, particularly for your degree. Others that's where the problem lies for this president. It's not his appeals to white people and white racial. That's doing a man, it's the fact that people here, Rachel conflict. Perkins aid regime, which is why that Monmouth pulse important dimensions of Monmouth pulled. It says that one order is a real problem in the union. States does not necessarily were down to trumps advantage. It's important to understand the conflicting nature of the text,
like that, because you do have a non. You know you do have a significant number of people in the country who will say the Trump is exacerbating these conditions, the disorder and decay in the country and that the law and order problem a connects to him and not to buy, and they can get its marginally better for trapper, more than largely benefit from them is forbidden, but it's not a hundred percent. It's not eighty percent, it's not so three percent, but in a bed in a broader sense, I feel, like you know that the phrase politics is downstream from culture, what I did politics is doing right now is building a damn a stream, and what that means is that the cultural message has been positive. If you look at a rate of interracial marriage in this country, if you look at rates of You know, and also, if you project demographically, ten twenty thirty years into the future, there's a fear a positive message about recent this country, but identity politics. Folks, don't want that message what they
do is build a dam that says no actually we're going to divide we're gonna have it's about power, and I think in that, whatever in this recent election want change that much cause. That's it that's a culture problem, and I just feel like that. I mean the end. Racial marriage rates to me or the most heartening story on race that has ever been told, and it's been told by individuals making. Our decision about who demand you're going love who don't raise families with, and you know I think, a lot of gets undermined by the message were seen to validate I'd, say the identity parts is not just a damn between in the stream, its reversing the flow I mean. So now you have you have politics dictating culture at least cultural you know and in terms of what we see here and read it, that is not right. Active of where the actual live living culture is now. I want to finish with this one thing
So you know there is this idea the funny idea in the last twenty four hours, the Joe Rogan, the podcast. Her with a and he down one hundred ninety million downloads a month should the House day, you have no rules, no holds barred at no time limited debate between Trump and Biden ah I think this is maybe the greatest single idea. I've ever heard Nnnn It'll never happen, but does I mean Do we really need to hear some CNN reporter? Ask trump question about? You know Charlottesville well tell Roman ask a more interesting around into law. Four hours is not too long. Now. Would you Rogan that that's the whole point, your rubbing its people,
listen. I know it will never happen, but what could happen is drunk going on Rogan alone. That would actually be smart would be made I know just watch. Every single person said gushed over Barack Obama. Doing that into first set up your happening, cheapening the Isle of Wight away by the way, so Trump is on ABC tonight on the town there, the town hall tonight, I'm a b c.
Joe Biden refused to Joe Biden. They offer the town Hall to Joe Biden. He refused it. I don't know that any of these things really make a difference in our voters are going to vote for trumpet not forbidden. Cause Biden refuses to do a town hall with that with ABC, but ah the the Biden campaigns calculated decision to keep him as invisible as possible. It will either proved to be one of the greatest cabin this is what we are returned to the nineteenth century? With presidential candidates did not campaign, does it was seen to be unseemly? It will either be some brilliant return and and and genius decision the dumbest thing they what has ever died them. I guess we're. Not gonna really know that until election day, it's not just keeping the candidate locked up its now there's a revolt among the Democratic Party over not not doing retail.
Politics and by which I mean actually knocking on doors and doing a traditional GEO Tv. That's a sort of thing really personal com, tax. Everybody in the industry, Ngos, personal contacts were better than anything else. No direct mail is worth a handshake, but that binding campaigners so committed to this notion that they have to socially distant Cynthia ways where they have press conferences where you're in the book. Quarters are nautical mile. Apart we might circles like thereby drastic. So as though so again on our group chat, you can drink Christiania shared afford, though you sure photo of everybody in these circles, like they drew these six feet circles at the binding press conference right and an Christine said. This is like hearkening for a drone strike. This is not how it was felt that it was absolutely true is like it off if what you wanted was to pick them up one by one with no collateral damage. This words
It was literally you sat in the middle of a both high. It was a bill feet apart they're outside side wearing masks. All of this is theater, and it's really silly because its handcuffed you now. It didn't. Is there any indication that this is an advantage? working on poles from May in saying, ok will everybody's on board with this, but everything has changed. My fear in the last my favorite thing, though I have to say that we should we should go, but is watching the news and that in out like a year, you have that the segment the tape segments starts on it. As you know today, here in central park, bottle of wine than they go to the live shot and it's the corresponded with the MIKE with the mask I'm talking but no one's anywhere near the correspondent, so the corresponding doesn't have to have the mask on cause. There twenty six feet away at his outside, so it's Mask theatre
it's all here to exemplify it, except sometimes you can't really here about the room. The mask and you know, could really helped to get a little lip there. So you can really follow. What's going on anyway, with that we will. We will say goodbye until tomorrow, for a pristine and now on John passports, keep the camel burning.
Transcript generated on 2020-09-15.