Welcome to the Commentary Magazine Daily podcast today, is Friday June, twenty six to twenty twenty, I'm John POD hordes the editor commentary with this, the five hundred and first Commentary magazine podcast with me, as always senior writer, Christine Rosen High Christine. I John Associate editor nor Rossman high Noah I drop and new lamented Secondly, the editor of Commentary, a Green Waldheim, John, so ably you're in your August position as executive

I would ask you to try we're gonna, try to sort of disentangle the strands of confusion surrounding the spike in corona virus cases. That has led governor Abbot in Texas to pause taxes. Reopening has left, My am eat, I believe, to shut down its bars, and is there a hints and indications that at least in Arizona hospitalizations are getting? to be are possibly going to start reaching crisis levels. However, these numbers don't entirely at the prudence of the politicians, not was adding I'm not sure the numbers should be viewed as any reason to panic. Unless what you really want

is to put a share in the side of the politicians who didn't locked down their states of March. While that there's a lot of that shipping going on not not least from New York's governor, Andrew Coma husbands wagging his finger at at Florida for weeks now- and I am talking about an end in fact- quarantining people from other states who he claims have not reopened intelligently or smartly, as he sometimes says. Yet. The I think what's happening is that there is an ongoing you're going to unavoidably see arise and infections in places that did not have a spike by the way. This is true not only for the: U S and states, but this is true for Germany, which which did this wonderful effort of,

keeping cases really low numbers for very long time. They re they reopened and now they are closing counties because they're they're arise of several doesn't cases. Suddenly there there there are speaking. I think what is happening here is kind of like two to use a less than August Meyer, before it's. When you are going to get sick or vomit, you, but you can try to keep it down you? U user, breathe through at you close your eyes, but but that doesn't actually stop it from happening. It may delay it and I think, tragically and unfortunately, that that seems something like that seems to be the case geographically with Cronan factions that, if you don't have an area doesn't have it spike That day is coming, it will have spike and I think- and I think we're seeing that I don't I don't know- that's it. That's entirely avoidable. If, if we plan to open

in any way that there's a lot of is a lot of data that is kind of hopeful are positive in this, which is that mainly having to do with the age of those who are we're getting new infections, in Texas in Florida, in Arizona the cases the of new infections are much young, then what they were there and like the thirties, or so. This is good news because there are so many fewer a serious complications in patients who and younger patients who the virus, and there is a shrinking of specially Florida of the percentage of elderly people who are were nuth getting them. This is good news than your time says. This is disturbing news for some reason, but that is not the case Well, if it's disturbing that young people are our making up a larger and larger percentage of of new cases, what what would

the news where, how would you characterize news that doubt that it would be happening to older people right? Well, I think for a part of the question here. Is this confusion that we dealt with from the beginning confused being friends of mine who were involved in the Corona Prevention and in a way Why triage efforts in New York, doctors at hospitals and stuff said if we do our job right? If this is going to look like an overreaction, what if we do what we have to do? It's going to look like. We have too many hospital beds, and we had this made that, but in fact that is what we want. We want it to be not as bad as if it could possibly be now. I think we're in a weird situation in which we are getting news, that is very ambiguous and we are treating it as though

We are not we at. We have been under reacting the words like if the virus is not going to go away. Don't we need as many people in America as possible to get it as quickly as possible if they're not going to die from it, because that way we can start achieving, or broaching heard immunity right. Yes, but we also need in a strange way, would almost be more helpful at this point to do what I think far too many people did at the very beginning of the covert outbreak, which is to try to think about this, as if we haven't been unlocked down for several months and as if this is more seasonal blue like like a really severe seasonal flu. In the sense that it is now striking younger and healthy people who have a likelihood of recovery, we have better therapeutics for those who do That's it we're seeing much lower mortality rates, even though we are seeing a rise. Number of cases were saying. Further evidence that that non

dramatic spread of this virus is likely much wider them than Initially thought right. The CDC director Redfield yesterday said that he thinks that there are ten times as many cases as we know Oh and now it would mean that all those people are asymptomatic, and that would I again that's not a bad thing, never narrowly This is why this is so frustrating it's not gonna. We focus on the conspiratorial tone of the right, which has been something that has characterised this whole thing since March, but you can't get good information from them. And string press without having to wade through this conspiratorial nonsense. That's just take the state of Florida, for example, fallen, kind of closely cause. It's been a hot button, further lasting several months, but over the course of this week they ve been reporting a huge spiking cases, five thousand a day,

four thousand the next day today, it's almost nine thousand New Coburg cases spike and look at this, for example the Sun sentinels coverage of this stuff, and that in the headlines is literally here's the covered, Nineteen data, Hospitalization David State, won't show you than ever following this very closely says the floor and is one of the best states when it comes to reporting out these, these all of its data, the break it down from where they got it and long term care units and asked, was asian rates and were tally, raids and infection rates. They really do give you a wealth of data and the data. The trend line for new cases is totally spiking, but the hospitalization rate is on honestly speaking and the mortality rate is flat and the answer to this- that the mainstream press and liberals and everybody who is committed to the idea that floor This wrong is that floored is hiding hospitalizations Lauren is hiding get people somewhere, they look.

Really believe this What are you up to get a good idea, good picture of what the cases are, because everybody is trying to make a political narrative out. There is excellent twitter feed called Polly Math and its broad proprietor

then trying to you now disentangle these tangles and points out that the information that people gather to say that Florida is hiding? Things comes from the reporting of the state of Florida. It's all in Florida, Dashboard Florida ranges at a certain way. Other people arrange it in a different way. The most interesting thing he points out is that some people want to abrogate the number of current cases, which has tested by a certain type of test right. That reveals, whether you have it in your system at the moment and then a test that reveals whether you had it in the past. Him got over it and almost everywhere in the country or everywhere in the country. These are kept separate. These numbers are kept separate for obvious reasons, but that other

when trying to deal with Florida are aggregating them, adding them together, thus saying that there have been essentially ten percent, more cases than Florida is reporting, but the way you know these numbers is from Florida, dashboard they're, just not adding them together. The way New York doesn't add them together in California, doesn't add them together and all these places dont add them together. So there is a conspiracy according which Florida is giving you all the data. You need to prove that Florida is an evil place that is doing evil. Here's something else. I understand, sir. I just require that data assign you can tell I guess, by the behaviour of officials in Texas the things again really that

with his taxes freaking out right, here's restarting reopening I'm gonna wait wearing a top level. Emergency hospitals are filling up Arizona. I just say one thing and then I'm going to see the grant a bond Texas. So if Texas is now spiking now and what way would that vitiated their refusal to shut down in a it doesn't because they didn't actually suffer the consequences that people said. Oh, my god, everyone's gonna die because you're doing this, they are seeing the members rise and they are shutting down now and my guess is they're not gonna. The mistakes that we made here in New York that killed five thousand people by sending them into nursing homes and having everyone in these things with climate control kill each other.

Billy, only two words, anyone ever says to Cuomo any time he says anything about the state of floater should be nursing homes, the track that an end of discussion goes because that is a mistake that the evil state of Florida also avoided and on that Why does it and waited and avoided when New York made the mistake right avoided when we work floored has got a lotta nursing homes, it could have done exactly what New York did and it didn't And so here's another irony about trying to cast the flawed as either for hiding the data. So,

In New York, now be vaunted contact tracing regime that was supposed to you know wonderfully track. Everyone down was infected and end. You know get in touch with all the people that they are exposed to there. They have managed to get in touch with to interview and find out who was contacted by half of those people who were in fact who they know to be infected, which is really not very good, because you leave half of the infected out there having having contacted whomever else and in reporting on this, they are covering this up. They afford the numbers oars replayed with them in such a way to suggest that.

They are that they are have been in touch and our tracing far off much higher percentage of cases than they have there's a story on in political this morning. Nobody in the New York area should honour the words contact tracing without a sense of absolute shame, as they have abandoned the concept of contact racing by refusing to ask the people whom they contact it if they attended only these protests, because that would be politically problematic- and I mean this is where I get I understood. And everybody says boy. The South Koreans did great with contact racing boy, the Singapore issues great with Contact Harrison. I. Understand how you can do contact tracing in New York City? I just don't I mean, has anyone right now? You could, because, if you you're a subway car, there are three people in the subway car, but in March or April there were seventy

by people in the subway car. Where you know in February there were two hundred people subway car by April. There were twenty five people in the subway. Aren't you don't know any of them? I mean this notion that you can somehow create this sum this this tree, so that you basically means that everybody. That's why lockdown, perhaps an essay like you work is now Sorry because you can't contact rights. However, I imagine that in Idaho or Montana were you know I've one of those states? It has an incredibly low population density. You could contact traced the hell out of those places and basically make it so that any outbreak could be contained almost instantaneously. If people were willing to follow the rules and you could even have done a form of even in a city like New York, he can

do a selective form of contact tracing which is due to choose the the places that you know to be high risk women, whether that's mass transit, are already indoor clubs. Are things like that that cause a lot of the problems, even in South Korea, and and focus your efforts? on those concentrated areas right, but the other thing is I'm sorry, new Yorkers I'll have the tolerance for for technological surveillance that the South Koreans do and good for them. I mean this is actually another point that is, I constantly bringing it because I'm a luddite, but it's not a small point, because the kinds that what we saw from the contract contact, tracing apps that were being justice is that it wouldn t those with that serve security risk in the privacy breaches that were built into those out. We're not gonna, be something that I was going to tolerate. I will willingly use- and can I just say at this moment in time at this moment in time,

What we, what are we seeing happening in the United States, its all of this public, shaming people digging up private email correspondence from eighty seven years ago to try to destroy people's lives and careers? Who would trust contact tracer. You know your hiring ten fifteen twenty thousand contact treasures, who would trust that they would not use to their own ideological political, personal advantage, and I am not a lot I am. I am not a paranoid about. You know, internet security, that much but right In this country, the notion of granting lots of people lots of access to confidential information strikes me as insanity, just as a prophylactic measure and its let its not working particularly well. Is this? What we see so far

write to a more regimented society is more comfortable with regimentation salute that require regimentation, and we are just not a regimented society for good and ill. Obviously, so we ve gotten, we have now. I hope, exposed just the incredible confusion that we experience than that. I hope you are experiencing because it seems very clear that nobody knows what the hell is going on, and now we hear that a doctor found she is gonna announced a new way to approach the virus. More confusing than anything I got Well what on earth he's talking about? But you know then there is the reopening stuff, and this is why this is the real argument against lockdown as a public policy matter so July. Six, which is at a week from Tuesday New York assume

It keeps having these marks. New York city will open for phase three or face wore something which will include indoor dining. It is my supposition that the indoor dining numbers will remain somewhere in in the catastrophic numbers that they were before we locked down. Officially, in everything was closed, people are not gonna, be comfortable going into restaurants and saying there for an hour, even if they have noodles on their head to keep them six feet apart and all of that at this the ultimate point, which is that in the self governing society with where there is a lot of information. Official state down action may not be as necessary as people in you know in play. People elites who believe that people are stupid and need to be governed and ruled and told what to do except because that, once the walk are over really there's gonna be a very

ginger and very slow response by the public. I believe to the reopening people: aren't gonna go to a movie. It offers they're, not gonna. Go to rest. I mean they are people they're going to sneak in they're gonna go in, maybe go out, they're gonna they'll, give it a shot, you know, but I mean, and that is that is the way it ought to be. I think, because it is when you say you can't do it, then they general response of an American, dont tread on me. Person is the hell with you I'll. Do it? Who the hell are you to tell me not to do it, but if they decide not to do it, they its who the hell you to tell me to go shop when it? What are you guys think I don't know. If I first of all the public policy argument against lockdown, as we did it for three months and the entire country went in same everybody, more crazy everything stopped working. Everybody broke down.

There was no law, it was all capricious and hypocritical and responding to it that way. That was a disastrous public. Also response in, I think, will, tease out over the course of the next couple of years, and some real data to damage justify my conclusion there. But beyond that in a purely anecdotally, where, where I am everyone that and everyone's going to patronize whenever is open, including retail, on inside their doing everything they can there. All messed up, taking advantage of whatever I don't know I would get a target answers up and consumer spending is up and all that suggests there's a macro economic phenomenon. That's that's king. That would suggest that people are engaging with the outside world. I was at a target in Edgewater New Jersey yesterday. Was empty? I was at a Walmart in river, had New York several times over the last month. It was empty. These are both open for business. People are not

The numbers are regional, but I'm about thirty minutes. From there and you can't get in to target- is a line around the block and the main streets are packed with people to the point where you can't socially distance. Even if you wanted to know I'm in Manhattan, you can socially just without any difficulty whatsoever. I don't know what I'm I'm not. The argument is not really that people are going to go. I'm saying that the things that make people nervous about the virus right, which is close contact over a long of time, with the exception of the young people who were out an incredible numbers during the protests at people. I think we're just going to be very ginger about it and that's why you can reopen

because there is a business decision, whether or not you're gonna staff, these places or make the effort we are making our site. This is this is where the tone of leaders and our lack of leadership matters right, because I think he d, you know we're thinking about the Cuomo style, which is the kind of elite technocrat? I know better than you you, you know treating treating his constituents like stupid children who must be passed around and scolded, and you know ticketed when they do something wrong verses, a leader who can say more libertarian sandwiches. You know what we're gonna trust you to make your own risk. Harassment and to make your own choices and we're gonna, ask you where mask in certain situations, that's even different than than the that doesn't always provoke that kind of overreact, chicken and childish response on the other extreme issues. How dare you haven't where a Basque I refused to mask? I'm I'm a real man. You know that that childish, a thing which we seem far much of the conservative side of the spectrum, so there are just two

few leaders in those countries who are taking that path of trusting the citizens who elected them to make wise choice this for themselves and to assess their own risk, which I think is what you're talking about John here in DC. I think it's an interesting makes because I mean I think I mentioned earlier far: fewer people are wearing masks on the street, but every his masked when they go inside, because private businesses are asking nodded their patrons and people are adhering to that. We haven't had a lot of fights where someone's kicked out or you know, raises a ruckus, because they don't want to wear a mass but far fewer people on the street, even in places where they can quite socially distance, properly or wearing masks. You know it part of the problem. Here, is that the messaging is so dissonant. You note so. Think of New York and general and people being scared to go out. The issue, is it coma references are. This is real leadership is what leadership looks like

but what he does is he says the numbers are so good, I'm so proud of us. We made it through we're doing the right thing and then he acts as if the numbers are terrible. And that we we're gonna have to close at any second, because because where you know, where were the entire state as a deaths doorstep again and and this as people really not knowing what to do. I mean outdoor restaurants are open now New York and they are busy. They are. Those outdoor spots are very, very busy. I mean they are packed up. There is a difference I think psychologically, when, when it comes to going indoors, I think the people twenty to forty years old Wolf will apps

flock to restaurants in bars and doors, and I think a lot of those who are older than are gonna stay way. Regardless of the numbers I mean almost said, you know fab wits, it's all about facts and the numbers in the dialogue on little. Look at this dialogue to look at this figure only and if this is good- and this is good- we're gonna proceed. Never things get, but it's it's not exactly the way that that he said it's not that it's not. The mindset of the people in Europe are not looking for numbers going. This is great we're on our way. They're, saying I don't know, he's talking about shutting down things and then places and cracking down again. I don't and I'm keeping my distant still for now, there's also like a very obvious strain of political hypocrisy and a lot of these cities. So in DC we ve just been in by our mayor, Miro, Bouser, to enjoy all of our fourth of July celebrations in small groups. And you know someone juxtaposed her tweet that was sent out to see the day saying that with your tweet that invited everyone in the city they come here

the black lives matter, mural that cheap Paynton from the White House that people are still. That's my heart, your point when tea and then mistrust as ape knows mistrust the messenger as they do not accept that we do know what we keep it being told, I think it's true is that these super spreading incidents take place when forty people get together in doors for a while, and then you have us circumstance where fifteen twenty people get the virus from somebody who has it cause they're together in a close space for a while and that being get out. I mean it's like this, like they should couldn't baseball again for every step that now this is the rule. Why don't stadiums or a bad idea so go to a duck? Go go to junkie stadium, there's no down its outdoors, it's hot you'll be fine.

You can't go to the NBA its indoors, its climate, controlled you'll get sick. You can't you can maybe go been. Maybe the stories you can go to a black lives matter protest, but you can't go to it to a fourth of July Party with twenty people in your neighborhood I mean you can. This is again the self governing society question, but maybe you shouldn't because one person in an enclosed spaces There is climate control could get ten people sick and that's that's where, as we learn more and more about this, that's where the these tree it oh Trio's, is a terrible way to practice medicine, except in extreme emergency conditions. You know you don't want to have to ambiguity the leg, because you're worried about gangrene, if you can avoid it, but sometimes it

the only thing you can do if there are ten thousand people, it's the civil war and you're an you're lying on a railroad track, and they don't know what to do not to kill you except to cut your leg off. So you know that's what trio she's a terrible weather do medicine, but you do it because there's no other choice. Lockdown of the sort that we're talking about was tree eyes and ears? Noah says, I think, turned out to be a very ambiguous story at at at best. I don't think it's vertical. The ambiguous and think it worked. I think a main everybody crazy right and I am not saying that, if you could say will you know the alternative could have been worse than we just don't know: That was worse. We don't how many people would it be dead in New York if there had been a locked down so since you can't run that test really, except by you now going on time-

shame and doing it differently. Wait haven't watching my eye caves and my favorite show travellers which didn't get the season that we wanted. It's on. You can watch the Netflix. This fantastic show travellers. The only good time travel programme ever made suffer back to the future, and then they cancelled it, sir we're very bitter, but you could in on travellers they may be, could go, and you know like revise things in somewhat anyway. Public stupid. But let's let's let's say I wanted to make applied transition to as Jonas has rank poetry this last night, Tucker Karlsson, the most popular host on Fox and deep, a possible presidential candidate to twenty four and my someone that I gave him I'm responsible for his first big job and journalism. So you can

Thank mere criticise me for that. At the weekly standard and ninety, maybe five Tucker at Trump, it Trot said: you're gonna lose a selection, you're being an idiot. Stop it stop it! Stop it. What's the matter with you, you're an idiot and this morning the Wall Street Journal said o Trump may need a new, nickname, firm, sleepy, Joe Biden that doesn't seem to be working. How? But, Mr President, why do you call it mister present cause you're gonna make him president. If you keep going on like this so what's interesting about this is the tone of disrespect and anger that has taken over these Trump friendly precincts and I wonder whether that is a greater evidence of a sea change than anything that we have yet

seen on on the right of the he's gonna give permission to politicians to run away from tromp. I just think it is an indication of the despair that all rational people who do not want. Your vice president should be feeling right now, based on all the numbers of receiving and Trump zone behaviour out, again result a pat on the back right now, because on June twelve, I wrote the following. Even as Democrats, let city sacrifice territory to insurrection, airy secessionist mobs Trump has left Americans who fear the prospect of civil disorder without an effective champion. Those forsaken Americans are apprehensive and frustrated

the income hate emotions will congeal into anger soon enough. I've been in the angry camp for some time so unhappy to welcome everybody is defensible and logical position. There is the point we talk about Colombia for ever the terrible, but the general had two heads are less interesting. I think on the issues Keyser Family Foundation House pull out this week that shows tests the big issues we think are gonna be resident in November, the economy, healthcare, race relations, the corona virus, outbreak police, violence and maintaining law and order, and down from his behind on all of them, with the exception of the economy. But she only beats Joe Biden by about four points in his has a plurality support, not even a majority support on the issue of the economy on issues like corona virus outbreak, police violence, racism,

and even maintaining law and order he's down by ten points? Ok, I've, gotta, ok, so the economy, every poll shows the Trump beats Biden on the economy, and yet almost every held we're talking about, shows trumped down nine ten eleven points. This would indicate a significant turn around and the economy is not going to help him that much because he's already, even with the belt down that people have experienced, keys already! That's the one area! Where he's ok, so and we ve been experiencing a dramatic uptake and hiring consumers are ending consumer confidence. It looks very v shaped done him any favours. So what he needs to do in these circumstances is up

other numbers like on law and order, races, lawn order, lawn on law and order and looks like he is completely ineffectual and is just like kind of. As I keep saying like he's like a collar to it, to a chat New York City Tom Show in nineteen. Seventy four you gotta go in. There are not some heads or what, however, this he wants to say it, and all of that is seems impotent rather than the office.

Say: I'm gonna send the National Guard to protect statues. It's not that I don't understand the doctrine or support the idea behind it, but that's not what people are thinking about their thinking about. You know chop there. Thinking about you know a surge in the murder rate in Chicago and in New York. There thinking about actual crime, not just cultural war, crimes which are horrible but like the country, is going to the dogs and he's standing there, having a rally in talking about a ramp? Well, but that's, but he also is when he does his law and order stick he's only speaking to the country. One register right so and Americans are kind of weird about this right. We do. We don't like disruption, despite the last few weeks of it. We we want.

Conciliation. We want people to get along honestly. If you look at the polling and receive on really difficult issues where people might not even you, you can see common ground right now, that's the difficult needle! That's a little thing. He can't thread right in which a good leader can, Carlos important policies there, promoting or once at the right or the left would like it's that it's the tone raided. The is the register he can speak and he's got his speaking. Both he's got a both say. You know where we're going to protect our monuments, it we're gonna. U know crackdown on anyone whose is doing violent lawbreaking, but we but We also really need to have a conversation about how we can all get along the wall better. We could talk about, there's a unique both right. That's what most of our previous presence have attempted to do in times of crisis some better than others, but he doesn't even try to have that discussion about reconciliation doesn't even try to talk about why? What People are angry about. He just says he declares himself a law and order president, without without even getting in.

The issues that are that are making law and order difficult to achieve right now and huge? Precisely he's just doing pundits trick right he's these up. There he's our job but you should these purely giving commentary on what's happening in saying there crazy and truth be told, like that. I'd like to you know let the fires burn more, so people can see how terrible it is. This is. This has nothing to do with taking steps to actual may contain things, but less than talk about what it means that that Tucker and policy, both Wall Street Journal have decided to take the gloves off right. The general question when you are a friendly, ideologically friendly work, supportive or on the team. Person in the media and and your political party is going the wrong way

or is heading in the wrong direction was doing the wrong thing. How you? What tone you take? Do you attempt to you know is a tough love, is a toughness? Is it lucky? We know your great you're, so right, you're, so great, just We gotta do a couple of things differently like this is always a thing about how what approach you're gonna take do try to win with persuasion, because somebody trusts that you have their back or are you like? Don't be a jerk you're gonna ruin everything you know these are the two tones you can take well. Are you want the difference? In the case, the New York Times unjust nominee to White Ladys to be addressed, not age, while for that right, right, fair enough,

when you start saying, don't be a jerk you're gonna ruin everything. It's kind of ay all is lost its very close to the moment when the captain on the Titanic says every it's. You know it's every man for himself, which is a which is that raise other words. We're not even try to save this, like whatever you can do not to die Zeitung okay, satellites, a pleasure analogy to undertake the analogy further. So in the next couple of weeks, then we should see Billy's aim in the form of you're a senator grab it here is child suggest this is my I gotta get on that boat a child is the popular republican governor who I've been saying forever. Is who these I'm lookin senators should embrace hold onto as tight as possible. Pretend there, the president between now in November and save yourselves, but the two pop most popular republican governors are states that don't have public

Seven! That's how you don't have to say: no! says: there asked about your estate but who's, the guy from Baker, Hogan Baker, the two most popular problem governors. They are a democratic Rock rib Democrat Rock rip up democratic states. So of course it has to be there. So what are they gonna say? Hi, I'm Corey gardener from Colorado. At my hero is Larry Hogan, its Mary. How good guess? I'm not now Before this out. I have to read a good loop or does not have to be a coherent argument. First of all, there are plenty of public governors for on the Santer says, is very popular in Florida, Iowa hasn't popular republican governor, and so is it Ok, just for you to make this is local as possible and to say this is a local issue, the aim of raising the level and won't like ain't going, I'm glad you're it an estate when it's your governor that, the more regarding hurt you you might as well. You know, take the gas pipe any minute. Now!

here we, the another election, is an option. I told you so does that mean Jared Customers that Leonardo Dicaprio figure we should make a phone call their accounts. Are. I have here the alternative and attitudes march off into the to the gallows. Gotta do something which could become a psychological point about the approach to criticising Trump from within the trumpet camp. I think it's it's so angry, because. If you admire and respect someone and they let you and they disappoint, you your saddened, If you worship someone and they disappoint you, you are enraged you are furious and and and because that is much closer emotionally to love and worship. And if you sold your soul to some right, then you don't get what you want. Then what I mean? That's the other thing because of course, there isn't a lot of love lost between

Trump and republican politicians are maybe between a lot of that is situational and was ok. Look if you're gonna, if you're the future, where we're gonna were cast our remit cast our lot with. You were gonna, see what we can get to see. What can happen, and you know what the hell with those people. You know what you're right, I'm in Hell, what those people the it's enough being nice to them, it's enough trying to work with that, whatever screw that right and then its July, it's almost July, and your ten points down in your Corey gardener. In your thirty points down to John PIC and Loop, her and your Susan Collins in your down seven points to Sarah Gideon and your mom,

the Mc Sally in your down ten points to Mark Kelly and your Tom tell us a richer break em over which, in your down on us, Tonto us down four points to a demo iron ore, Starlight and Joanie earns. Does that like if you're those people- and you were like you know- maybe trump hazard he's got secret sauce at a really understand it. But, as you know, we gotta follow do play this card out. Well, they play the card out and they're all walking off a cliff, and I then, if he pulls out, I don't see how a lot of those guys are good. Tell us they pull it out. You know depends on how really fleet they are and how bad things turn. But you know so I dont know. So those are the politicians. I just think

pundits it's more interesting that that we are now in a moment at which people are art may be starting to muddy the record a little bit and trying to say yea. I look I said back in June. He was, he was toast. You know, look what we were in the other, Pat right. We said Trump can't win, he won in twenty. Sixteen we apologize. We said we were wrong. We examined our prior as we did all that oh Pryor's drink. Someone just said that we need to add prioress as though that's one of the commentary drinking it I think we did that, but I think we're gonna have this question of whether or not the trumpery people. If Trump loses arguments that I was with you guys all the time I was well there. You were right about. You were right about him any. I doubt it there's a lot of pride and that what we should probably green investigators. If these are the conditions that prevail in November on its awash for the GNP across the board, you know

we ve been speculating that there's the the scenario in which Donald Trump maintains his hold over the republican electorate, sort of in visions that he's a poll in a very divided feel the twenty sixteen field in which everybody's high into the air parent and that twenty percent carries you forward to some sort of advantageous position, but I mean, I find it very hard to believe that one term president facing such a historic lost, maybe take the Senate with them, will be especially if now using the intelligentsia, jumped ship, I mean How does I even happen Ok, you will. Let me live in political infamy. Ok, can I just read: I just got me mail sent to the bar pod cast crew. That is interesting and I I think there.

But I would like just eat. The title of the email is on subject matter is more discussion of how vile Biden is. Please turn cruise as a thorough job of articulating all of the unsavory aspects of trumps character. However Joe Biden to serve an afterthought, and I think there was some assumption that everyone is familiar with this place since he's been in the public eye for four decades. I think that is mistaken, and since this is a binary choice, there should be a much more detailed exam. Bugs character. General fitness for office again, so at last night, while shot had actually was watching MSNBC and this commercial comes on web from the trunk campaign, which is Biden looking Senile and that its it's good. I mean it's a good bet. It's bad. You note by looks terror, and the commercial is good in its wake him any natural year that would like he would, this would be devastating

career, ending kind of commercial so This gentleman wants a stock about four binds. You know vile record this measure. We should really do this gone, we will do it more more. I'm not saying that sure I wanna leave. I wanted I want to say a few things briefly itself: the guy's apparently just just north of Non coppersmith he's he's here, but there are even cutting commercials in which, if you say what he says outlined you sound like a crazy for my time, and that was a good take, a guy who discovered the you know. What is it? I want a favor you for an ask. I what

or perhaps even from here, for, ask a favor rear, rascal, failing which I then stolen, used in a column in the post did not properly credit have because he upset. I watch this five times to make sure that I got it right, unsolicited, hey Joe Biden here. I'm here for ask a favour. They used it make a wish to pass the right that that was the point you made the article to endure in your com. If that is the best take, they could use a magic what they couldn't use, yeah. Ok, so that said, when he was of sound mine, he was terrible. He made terrible choices. He got every foreign policy wrong. In the last twenty five years, I ain't even people who are endorsing him, tacitly endorsing unlike broke upon this former defence secretary,

blocking on! You have admitted as much data that he has horrible policy instincts. So he's neither competent nor capable of, the president, but he might be the president, and what is that how about this current president right doc, Let's not left the political stage. Having lost the presidency to a game show housed it ruined her career. Donald Trump will have lost the presidency to somebody who is barely cognizant of his surroundings. It will destroy his political career. Well, ok! So, let's go into binds us

it was a little bit, I'm not gonna type as pie. I can talk about policy off this evil em in the foreign policy stuff is, is, it is agreed just you know, dividing she loves to devote take countries and divide them. That's that's his big. That's his big go to devise. Afghanistan will divide Iraq you'll. Do this, it's like literally like out again at the bank p all because the boat people are full of prostitutes, but it's like every mistake them made after world war. One thats whereby wants to go let's redraw border lace so that we can create instability, the likes of which the world has never seen for another hundred years. What a great idea so ebbing that is, that is horrible. So, let's vote will stipulate that whether or not you like the conservative solutions and all that

can all agree that Biden, solutions on these matters, creative, though they might have been, were insane on on all sorts of matters he get out was liberty that he's he's very woke. Now he then says truck versions. Trumpet versions of left wing trumpets worsens things like he would require everyone in America to wear a mask. Well, guess what you don't get to do that if your presently United States so drop dead, now, you're gonna, say the trumps. A fascist and you're saying that the first thing you would do is make everyone in the country where a mass What are you the dying bananas? Everybody remember, Woody Allen, Bananas where the guy becomes the gorilla becomes a dictator, and he says from now on. The language of the country is gonna, be swedish

and you're gonna have to change your underwear, every thirty minutes and you're gonna, where it on the outside. So we can check that's that's the everyone in America will now be wearing a mask rule of the unified presidency. So that's that's pretty bad, but I'm just gonna tell one quick story about buying. That is why this is from when he was young. This is thirty. Four years ago, nineteen, eighty six at the Washington Times he came and he was a junior centre from Delaware. He came in for an editorial board, much young man, then what was he would have been in his early forties sat down well say,

around the table and someone says Centre Biden. Can you give us a preview of what's gonna be going on in the Judiciary Committee where I think he was then he wasn't the ranking member astronomer? What everyone tells what's gonna happen that the democratic agenda and the judge Jewish very committed and fight and opened his mouth and forty five minutes later he closed his mouth. He did not could not stop talking. He was the log Korea. The mania, the solemn system drink was unimaginable, ended. There is this story about Obama standing, I think, next to Joe Liebermann in his first week or second week as senator and fight and gets up to speak,

You know in the well of the Senate and Obama, slips a note. What are the better abolished or slips a note to Joey remain that says, kill me now, so he's an import, intolerable person I get is also got good side. You does was wonderful to people's worse. It is wonderful to people cancer there. These beautiful stories about him serve Leda writing letters to be without particularly for no reason just to be supportive, of course, of the hull, horrible story, the sun, terrible things, a son and but he corrected for allotted right that with all that was he's not talking enough, he keeps saying I've. I've used up all my time during the debates, because that was the thing the buying campaign thought they had to answer, which is everyone says your view. Talk too much, so try to talk so much and he was like ok I'll, stop stop half an hour.

Earlier than I am allowed to know, and I won't use up my time or whatever, but it worked anyway. That's Maya looking at how much she think his pre woke Biden record, which, on criminal justice on sexual harassment on a lot of the culture. More issues that have recently resurfaced with a vengeance are gonna. Come back to challenge him, not I mean obviously setting aside Trump has his own issues on those but he's we're looking to November to have a kind of landslide to cleanse the nation of trumpism or whatever like a week. If you really want to see it as a victory for him of that proportion of nothing, we individually want that. But how much is his record going to matter? I mean that he's pretty cool. It was for most of his career and old fashioned liberal, on a lot of the issues that you now can no longer be an old fashioned liberal on, and he is refused to answer media request

About a lot of things you know, certainly the statue toppling and he has his state, his bunker as a matter of of presidential election strategy, and I agree that it that's a good one for him right now, but he's gonna answer those questions eventually. Do we actually think he's he's gonna? Nobody, nobody asks What they are doing. I was the only person I know, people more inclined to ask them are people who are not in the in the tent in the press. The more adversarial institutions in the press of which there are very few that are willing to challenge Democrats along on pressure. On these radical issues on a long identity? And what have you so and in the only people who are demanding that he face these kind of challenges? Were people like US soldiers not sure when it happens, if it happens, and if it does happen, he can you can say you know, I'm not them and meaning and have a pretty good track record on that. But

Why are you telling me, what are you gonna denounce these actions, these activities in these people? You know this weird dichotomy which bind whereas we ve been saying, he's been very sad. We do not run a twitter focused campaign and not take the lead on. You know identity, Marian issues and what not, at the same time, on those rhetoric Visions when he is pushed to say as you know two some if you know, new, progressive radical proposal hee he he often gesture of gives a shit. Its sheepish. Yes, he raised his hand in a sense you know, because he he he fears, actually coming out against those crazy, things. He doesn't need d knows enough not to endorse them and champion them, but he is scared enough into you know saying No, if was if it's about to have an open borders,

question or were you did say no to defend the police, but I would love to have heard what the lines of what would it be drawing up common bells. I propose police reform bills that are before Congress right now. What does he think of those wrote? I think David Viler you're old colleague at the Standard Christine had a pretty decent observation when he said that time, Joe Biden ideology to the extending as one is that the Democratic Party, in whatever form it currently inhabits, should govern and do things? That's angrily, ass, well, by the way. One of the advantages. It's always been the case that one of the advantages of politicians running for president who are not in the Senate and not in the house is that they don't have to take positions on legislation they can say things like you know what this is, how you know when I come in, I'm gonna do what I'm gonna do you know what you're gonna do, what I can

what I'm gonna do and that's the way it's gonna be at that point. That is, over flank has been attacking stuff that he did oversee passage of the ice form from a crime bells and sat yeah. I don't like us, they didn't better like that regime right. Well, this is the real question is: does he is in a position where he Needs to appease them, or should he be running a fifty states campaign where he is trying to rack up electoral college votes by not being trump and by not going crazy? We don't know yet again that with what? What will the? What will know that by his tech by his vice presidential, also say one thing about the sort of the hints of dementia theme of tromp bad, you don't drop is not so well among senior citizens right now, and that kind of adds to it Did your citizen plays very differently than it does to some other members from space? Does it I feel like people might say things like? I don't know, I couldn't be president right now, I'm I,

eyes, I sleep two hours. I need to take a nap in the afternoon. Whether or not it We ve been saying this for a while. The sixty plus numbers are going in the wrong direction. They are, and there might be to the ages and perception on the part of, people who are making an issue of Joe Biden, metal stability, I don't know how you would even quantify that if he could now, but what else explains this flight, of this once very reliable republican demographic because they cause they ve, decided that trumpets, feckless and end, and he didn't give them he didn't do what

He didn't, he hasn't done what he needed. To do I mean, and this that's not any illogical. That's the ought. The oddest part about this is that he will. He will likely be ruined if he's ruined, for having embraced for having believed that if he embraced conservative, Idi Ology and the culture, or an judges, and all of this, rather than the heterodox set of issues that helped get him elected if they helped him elected. It wasn't just an anti Hilary vote that he's. He is relying on this idea that there is a that there is a silent. Already in the United States for conservative, cultural and social issues that just may not be there and that if he had stuck with. Doing things that didn't align him so completely with you now

The upshot had of the audience or something like that. Then maybe he would be in a different place, but those older people who are not necessarily culture warriors are like look there out there. I remember this from the sixties and he isn't doing anything. I remember these people, I we already lived through this. They think I was you know. I went to Vietnam and they didn't and he's just standing there doing nothing or there is this silent majority. It is there and he can capture them, they ended they they would they could they would bring themselves. That's what I'm saying the right to vote for any other conservative, but him right, but I'm just saying that, so the challenge is: there's a virus. There's an economic turned down, and there is the there is the disorder country and apparently the economic turned down. He is still viewed as somebody who is probably better on those matters than Democrats arc. As Democrats are crazy when it comes to the economy, but the

are too he's in terrible shape and he's in terrible shape, not because the country is left wing on social and criminal justice issues. Emily, maybe reckon silly a tory and he doesn't have all that. But you know they're, not their six percent wanted defined the police or something like that, but he's not doing anything or what he's doing looks like bull, less look serious, it does look like he's, actually engaged. That's why to fund a lot mattered so much that that saying Impotent Saint John Photo out. That's why that hit so hard and awaited think it would have for another president, because that's what people saw him doing is a photo up and, and that was on both sides of the eyelash it was they got. Why are you doing, as this makes no sense at this moment, to do it, but to him and made perfect that ITALY to upon or whoever it's amazing, how key that ended up being because that that should have been from from his perspective at the moment that he did a stab limbs, as someone who is going to do something

respond to the chaos and the disorder and yet was blown complete, when I say that as someone who was eager to try to downplay didn't quite get the significance of it at the time. Well, if you're going to do something dramatic, you're going to make a dramatic play that is performative but nonetheless or symbolic, it's got to go well. I mean that's the problem like you: could it can't be staged badly or it literally had the purpose that it is intended to do, which is sending message that you are the axe and they are why the message to think at sent instead its how'd, how why did it go wrong or why didn't they produce the effect that you wanted it to produce an that's like. That's why it's a high

our strategy to make performative symbolic gestures. Right, I mean it we'd much easier. Stay the oval office and give a speech and say I will not tolerate what is going on over there. I am sending the national garden to reclaim that park well and that's better than walking therein standing in front of the building holding a Bible. That looks like you ever held a book before your want an especially because the left was already doing, it does and it still doing its nonstop performative gestures.

Have you no Miriam browser painting her mirror on the ground and Nancy Policy in county cloth kneeling I mean that they were there constantly doing their performance of their virtue and heed the contrast between a president who didn't indulge in that, but still took action or the country wanted to see versus the performative liberal can t cloth in in the House of Representatives. I think that's an interesting contrast to to make, but he kind of it took out of table right. So when George W Bush lost a mighty, maybe two people now understand this, because he lived on live almost twenty five years or more than twenty five years longer than that and was a good man, but you know Republicans were enraged with him. They were raised with him, they thought he he blew and he blew and he raised taxes he he was ineffectual in running for president, didn't know what he was doing you to. Never,

stage in all that- and they really really really were angry at him for a very, very long time and that all I guess the ultimate other question about what happens if Trump loses? Is he a martyr to you know a theory that says that you just couldn't overcome the state media you now, King liberal, democratic academic conglomerates, conspiracy to destroy him and his destruction is our destruction. And he's a martyr and we can't or is it he blew it- he blew it. He had achieved

opportunity and things were going fine tea at three years and then one you know he had it. He had one bad year, grant it's a terrible year, but he blew it cuz he couldn't handle it. He didn't he was in undisciplined bad and he blew it and he's responsible for buying being present at. He is responsible for the Senate becoming democratic. He is responsible for democratic rule, just four years after he snuck his way into the presidency and and and Republicans

control of all levers of of of government. They lost one of them in twenty, eight in they're gonna lose both them twenty twenty. If this, what happens? It's his fault and he's thinks, and he should go away. He should shut up and never come back, or is he a martyr now, I suppose he'll be both depending on who, depending on who you're talking to both as the most attractive he's, both the victim of circumstance and had all these horrible things happen to him in a really was in his fault that the universe came down on him and Republican Party generally, but also where running campaign in the suburbs and more appealing to suburban women who ran away from republican Party. Our message is someone. One hundred eighty degrees different from drops. Those two things can disabled and ass much more of a Carter scenario really hard, but after us are met after inelegant, twenty twenty one or something so there

yeah. I think the Western Carter scenario in which the National Democratic Party was very aggrieved and moved left word, but at the at the congressional level, more democratic contained a majority. The political culture was much different, much more conservative yeah, but also Republicans, took the Senate so for the had said it for the first time in in ages and therefore had had a had a lever had a power lever. Aside from the presidency that say, mixing didn't have so things things were were very different now, if we just conclude on this point, as were bashing trump and dashing trump, so five months to got way July August September October, source for months and a week, some like that to go. Assuming that the poles aren't. You know wildly wrong and all of this he's he's in a hole he is behind. If the elections are held today, he would lose and he would lose substantially, so he can

he can turn this around right. Ok, no is nodding. Christine's, modern! Well, he get naked in tropical. The race will tighten after the conventions. It always does. It would be wild if it didn't bite. He can get to a point where you get caught. Her to the standard error of a pole. Sometimes it was either right. Now he's a standard bearer away from a standard air of victory, suggesting close that gap to get to a place where you can go either wag. The right think one could turn it around. Which is a different matter than whether he can turn it around? What's that I'm curious how he responds to the angry criticism from within his own camp he'd. He did that doesn't seem too you doesn't earning grow in hell recitals about it and then health problems exist right. His ordinary impulse would be to say there all

she'll losers in its area too bad that the Wall Street Journal loses so much money and that's why we body should watch away at and set a fox that that would be his impulse, I dont to kill his instructables in that way. I just do think that the prospect of hanging wonderfully concentrates on I in the end, they are clearly gonna go with business senile and you can vote for him because at least a nazi, not at least not senile and other Oh, you know I, it all depends on on buttons, for that is something where really calamitous moment in the debate now, if he has a brick perry like moment in the debate where he goes totally up and can't remember thing: that he wants to say, or some like that in front of a hundred million people Well, then, if, if they can link binds individuals seeming senility to the crazy left in a way that consistent, that is, is that that the swing voters might buy into like if the. If, if unrest and trot

continued throughout the summer. Things get worse, there's a lot more violence. What whatever that is the effective message against you're right? You can't go against your by my character, gown trampled around here. You can't go with our friends who go after him on record than the message that I think It is one that republic has had to pursuing and lay into the media to to come. Compel him to politeness thread is thy drawback is an ineffective bulwark against the rising radicalism. That is assuming a power within democratic Party is sending within and then just because he rejects this kind of radicalism is no reassurance because he's a figurehead yeah but then, but then you're. Also, then I don't know what you're giving two people who might be thinking. I don't know if I can be taken after four years of this. Like are you just saying you know we can't pick him because he is not a bulwark against the left to people who are like. I am like varied.

Go on whether or not I can already be more years of the treaty, the add yet what I get it, but the the ant juxtaposes and ineffectual barely come cognizant, Joe Biden against violence on the streets. Democratic mayors. Countenance in this sort of thing, I think that's an effective opposition, it could be, it should be, but that is also very much a matter of execution and because sometimes candidacies or sugar highs right, like Dukakis his candidacy there, the sugar high and mighty, maybe eight caucus, ended the convention. Seventeen points I had a bush, no rational person at that moment thought that Dukakis was gonna win by seventeen point and in fact Bush one by eight. For seven and a half or some like that. So really was. That was like a totally ridiculous fallacious number, but

you're. Not always sugar highs these kinds of weeds. You know Clinton. The head of the goal in ninety ninety six, but he won by nine he had put there are points of where he was ahead by fifteen but he was never, but it was never like dulls really it out. There's really charging you never had a moment at which he likes seem to be closing the gap, no member state. For twenty four hours riper for like two hundred seventy two of them, but I think alternately. You know the trump would have to do things differently. He would have to do things differently would have to he set himself like in the next three days to be more sober and serious about the virus and to come up with a strategy against the disorder and chaos in the cities, and I just that's the core. I've been, the only thing I can see is a change,

approach- and you know I will know- is again. Willie says that we'll know in three weeks, because it's gotta be in three weeks. Because he is who he is and he the most famous personally country he is the most significant political figure as an individual political figure in the country and and everything does gets attention, and so he can't just you know, go away, and you know due to serious work for the american people. It's gotta make a change in public and that's a hard, that's a hard hall for him, because it's not a sugar high. That's what I'd just. Finds lead is real. Seventy four out of seventy five poles have had him up since January just as binds led, was real from April of twenty nineteen. Until you know him One, the nomination- and there was this moment right There- Supposed- went when Bernie one twelve

people in Iowa, whoever one twelve people in Ireland, but a judge when fourteen people in New Hampshire and that it was like you know what once we actually have. A real primary Biden will crush book a bug and that's what happened. Then that's what happened in South Carolina anyway, so we will bring this week to a close with. I felt we're gonna like, and this really early, and then I just You couldn't I apologize, but maybe like get out of the way you want it wants to go in our seven minutes if I second so at which is where we are now we're going out longer, sulphur, Christine Abe and no issue of great weekend and will soon Monday. Keep the candle.