« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Bold Predictions for 2020 and Beyond

2019-12-23 | 🔗
The COMMENTARY podcast attempts to predict the future. What will be the biggest events of 2020? Who will become the Democratic presidential nominee? Who will win the presidency? What trends will shape the way we live in the next decade? And how wrong were all the predictions we made last year?
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the last commentary magazine PA guest of the year twenty nineteen in the decade, the twinning tens. I am John but words the editor of commentary with me as always senior editor, a brain waldheim hygiene Associate, Edward Rossman, high mountains, hygiene and in Washington, senior writer. Christine rose high, Christine agent. So as we are ending the decade ending the year, thought we might that just do some preposterous predictions for the coming year know if we could do prediction
the coming decade, I mean the obvious prediction that people on the right have been making forever is some kind insolvency crisis that will hit the government as Medicare Medical or Medicaid Social security. More really forgets. Oscar Medicare Medicaid start eating up. You know seventy to eighty percent of the clearest possible insurance fund. Yes, the trustees, insolvent and twenty twenty six c. There you go so I'm gonna predict insolvency and twenty twenties straight line production. I'm just saying That's my cause! I'm trying to go with you now, revenue and revenue are. We gonna have meant a Are we going have flying cars flying cars, a I've seen videos on Youtube. We have flying cars here. What I'm trying to tell I was when I was a kid I had a book. I had a car book like this is the late sixties and it must have been
mostly Ford's, but it was served like cars and then the last page was the car of the future, and it was the Ford Dream car which was the prototype model they had for the flying car and it said two thousand nine. That's what it said here guards. Ten years later, I don't have a flying car. I dont see any evidence that we will have flying cars- Christine is this part of the crisis, american and Europe and know How- and you know, technical innovation that we do not have a flying Korea. No, I think it's actually a deeply cynical but necessary observation about human nature, which is that we can at least we still kill each other. Too much in regular cars that are on the. If imagine, if we were our own, our own little flying airplanes, and I think that the hype the hype, even about driverless. Automobiles is just that it's hype. It's gonna be a while before both
rule making it a matter of acceptance of behaviour that that's gonna be in our future. Ok, there is no way that there will in this is my view. I do having spent a couple of years, believing the hype about the driverless car and then noticing that the you know one week that they gave you the driverless car in Arizona somebody got killed by the driverless car and therefore that was the end of the driverless car that the dry, This car is a phantasm the way certain types of things like the fact the segway was gonna to take over walking on the sidewalk or stuff like that when they develop some form of highway transport. That is like nature, almost like the hyper loop or you know, were maglev or something like that. There. Maybe at some point there will be private roads developed where you could have a like trucks Drive a hundred and fifty miles an hour or something like that, almost like trains without drivers, but they They to go straight, the road than get off
road than drive to your house unload to try them go back out into the neighbourhood or something that that I will. I will believe, if its inefficiency but. I don't see how the driverless car concept can survive. Five deaths, let alone you know. You know if you were like one of these people saying well, I mean look at three hundred thousand people get in accidents every year than if the driverless car means it will be fifty
driverless car means it will be fifty thousand people. No one will. No one will buy that. I disagree. I think that is probably unlikely that there will be a hundred percent driverless cars, but and I'm on a highway where you can switch both modes. I think that's realistic and part because the moral panic your outlining their it has to be predicated on the fact that a lot of people don't take advantage of the situation so like just use vaping as an example. The reason why that moral panic took on is because most people are never exposed to that sort of situation. More people drive then babe a lot more and they would take advantage of driverless function. I don't think you're ever going to get to a situation the back roads just falling asleep behind the wheel, but in a freeway situation where you could just which it on and off, I think you might even be mandated by law. After a certain point on which I said what we now know, we know you saying that, What are you saying that I think first of we already have element driverless cars right. We have these
Warning signals were the car takes the brain, the automatic breaking if the car senses that you're gonna crash. I dont know about this. I only skippin television commercials, you know There are various things that can be introduced into cars that take advantage of the technology that will the driverless corresponds to you now run on but I will give you an example of the moral panic that works that we're even talking about today, which is nuclear power right. So the moral panic of nuclear power is that nuclear power is going to kill everybody and they'll, be at you and all this, and there be no has been one major nuclear accident in the history of the planet. As far as we know, it was Chernobyl one and we are still basically nuclear powers, for all intents and purposes dead or dying, and it works that's, u no moral panics aren't.
They necessarily susceptible to sweet reason that that can with my theory, most people have no exposure to nuclear power and don't really understand and dont have to so. I don't really think that that's Emma with my theory and the and the exposure they do have is often through popular culture with which, as you know, kind of catastrophes. The idea that an accident might happen right well in a world in when technology was seen as an unemployed good and that the most technologically advanced thing was the best thing then new. Will your power was the best thing, because nuclear was new and nuclear was fresh and nuclear was something that just happened in the nineteen fifties and so harnessing it for the potential of mankind. Like all technological advances, when you are technologically enough serve optimistic, becomes unchallenged able almost an, but we are living in a weird
luddite time when, on the one hand you know we are more. Technology is more interlace with our lives than ever before, and you know probably ever again, because some something tells me that there will be limitations placed on some of these things, like the thought, the twenty four hour phone and all of that by society in some fashion over the next fifty years, but we so we're interlaced with it? But we are also, there is a real leftism, like Christine herself, Europe resident lotta, proudly, probably right. Well, you know you're you're, you're, an interesting carrot, you're, an interesting case because your against all these things and get your extremely up on all of them, because of this isn't about Christine. But I think the left is a kind of two dollars. Let us because everyone is deeply involved with these technologies and they sort of live by them. Wild, while denouncing
myself and what will the obvious thing is medical advances right, which are so just take, take a simple medical advance now so medical records. So I have. And almost by happenstance, I go to a medical practice, that's connected to a hospital and it's the same hospital where my kids were born and where I had a surgery a couple that ten years ago and stuff like that, and so the advances in how medical information is stored at the doctors office means that every time I go to the doctors office, they basically have ten years of my
medical records at their fingertips, and so half an hour of time is saved by the fact that they don't have to ask me the same questions over and over and over again, and that so that's just one example, and that's not even like the miracle of you now, Micro, sir, you have some some form of micro imagery. That makes it possible to do surgeries, Laparoscopic Leir, all that stuff, that nobody would sacrifice you now if they, if they had their brothers, and all of that is part of the high tech revolution. What about you know immunological these, these new human immunology treatments for cancer? stuff like that. All of this is part of this, and nobody would and that's where this the blood is amiss pseudo blood ism, I guess yeah- and by investing as the luddite defence well well, so here I think able
this right, I mean to look at the technological advances we happen in in the form of you. No medical advances, as one thing other. There are a lot of studies, interestingly, about medical records and doctors, use of them and patience had his faction in terms of the amount of face to face communication time they get with their medical care providers. Because of the time that the medical care provider is new data entering stuff into the computer to make sure the medical records up today, but I would say I actually have obviously pretty cynical about a lot of stuff, but what I see as moving towards the future is much more like the kind of social credit system that we have seen created in China, except without the kind of disturbing you know, autocratic government, controlled oversight we are basically reading away and have created away by using all of these tools and these platforms to have constant surveillance of our behaviour, and we are teaching all the companies that monitor us everything about it.
And we are raising a generation that has had all of their choices and preferences and behaviors largely tracked, so that that strikes He is as being something that, as someone of conservative sensibility, I don't think it would be a luddite to be concerned about where all that information is going to end up how we're going to regulate it. If we need to or control it, because you know we talked about our kids being addicted to their smartphones. The real problem is that those kids lives are now permanently There are a lot of them are, and I can't make mistakes like we all used to, and you know I could see that same sentiment, creeping into smarter and smarter, because right have they have your it. Where you go, the cameras. Are they spying on you? They never so that there could be the sort of anti big car. Sentiment. Well, you know, I mean it's interesting because in our inner
January issue. We have this package on the twenty tens that a but no one Christine and I'll have articles and, along with Math Canadian Rob Long Noah's article is that is the optimistic article which alone the centre right so his, but here's what's interesting. So his articles about fracturing and the revolution wrought by by a hydraulic fracturing and the discovery of the use of natural gas America becoming a net exporter for the first time in seventy five years, something like that of energy products and the way it's changing the jib. Basically, the GEO political face, of the planet, and yet there is an article this morning in the Wall Street Journal Monday morning on how for investors and banks that extend lines of credit to fracturing come
the knees. Things have slowed down frightened companies of over palmist banks are starting to restrict the amount of a credit that they are willing to extend to them. Some them are like classic gold rush fakes where they actually didn't really have any act and we're just you know. Basically, there was just open credit for anything. You could pull out particular view in the permian oil. Builds, which are in Texas, in Oklahoma and and so, and but part of this is also that the price of natural gas is now crashed because of because of Frank,
Frankie has been so successful that the amount of money that can be made from fracturing over time as lesson because, of course, the price of an average barrel of oil continues to go down yet that's what I was going to say is that it's the programme as a victim its unsuccess Neil, a reason why we got these developments in the early two, thousands of late to thousands early twenty tens is because of the financial collapse. The mortgage market collapse. Interest rates, cratered price of oil is really high, suddenly made a lot of sense to throw money into these things really expensive aren't. Projects with no return anywhere on the horizon zeal. The reason why we got the investment in this in these techniques in the first place, and now you know you get these lifestyle stories about people whose lives are dependent on pulling West Texas Intermediate out of the ground are doing well, because life has gotten really expensive for them in their not getting the kind of returns that they used to get. I mean it's just kind of its assent,
the market at work. Here is an generally. I mean the benefits outweigh the the downsides, but the downsides have real hardship associated with them. Real lives are being disrupted and there's going to be real political effort to freeze their current rates of prosperity in place and preserve the the deal. The benefits that they ve known for the better part of a century because, as a valuable constituency, oh yeah. Well, I am just saying this is the interesting thing about you know, even even the stories that we would view as the best possible news stories like how the natural gas market is going to in a wildly reduce the amount of geopolitical power held by by the Persian Gulf
Countries which have you could have some argue that since the since OPEC really decided to flex its muscles in the late sixties, early seventies, that has been the dominating area of world geopolitics. For you now firm, half a century and it will not be they missed their shot. At another thing I wrote about is that they are twenty fourteen when things really started getting going from the four american energy exploitation and exploration, OPEC blinked, had the opportunity to raise prices and they said no we're gonna live with lower prices for awhile and hopefully will price these american projects out of the markets that they will be able to sustain this gigantic see money suck, that is the r and d process and that didn't work right. So anyway, it's just an interesting. That's that's all! That's the predictive of the.
So what we have is we don't really know what's gonna happen with fracturing Miller is very convinced that the democratic parties assertion by its leading candidates at last week's debate, where Joe Biden followed Elizabeth WAR mothers and saying yes, he would stop racking, because there's so much other things that we can do to employ people in this wonderful new economy that he will create. Thus creating the real possibility that, once again, the Democrats have lost twenty twenty election before it even began by surrendering Pennsylvania, a state that is that has got rich over the last twelve years because of fracturing and if you want to drive a hundred per cent of people in western Pennsylvanian me bill
Me Marcella shale area to vote no on mass for Trump, like up like a black hat some months in New York for Hillary Clinton. Two thousand this: the best best way to do it, but you you seem convinced that that won't happen because of sweet reason, because racking is just two to, and I am not convinced of that stuff at all, because I know in New York State Andrew Cuomo, looking at pencil Looking at Pennsylvania and the money made Pennsylvania band fracturing or genetic agreed to a fraction Ben in New York for the logical political reasons, and I don't see why the Democratic Party camp continued to do that? Even if it's, the goose that lay the Goldman Sachs not impossible, is just much more difficult when you're taking away
is something that has never materialised: southern no understanding of the benefits and reversing that progress, which is a lot more painful. What's going on in Colorado, is the model that I think you would say is most likely, and I think I would agree which is. This is a state that was an early adopter and early beneficiary of frightened technology, Governor Hickory, Lieber, famously drank racking flu
in front of US congressional inquiry to demonstrate that it wasn't this poison, that lights on fire. We gonna win whenever it comes in contact with a combustible source some day. They are really mean up their economies tied into it, but they pass a series of laws now that are making it less financially attractive. To develop new wells and are designed to squeeze out existing wells because of an ideological antipathy towards tracking. So if the kind of thing that you can do, but you gotta do really slowly really quietly in with the best of intentions, because if you were to just turn off the spigot tomorrow, you'd have our economic revolt. I mean you couldn't just turn off the spigot because work: that's not how America Work Sue, loser, private companies, private entities, there is a free market. We don't live in a fascist still. She had taken just announced that you're not allowed to do it any more. That is the platform, but that is in the platform, and that is something that you know Trump will, you know beat over. The heads of everybody.
The Republican Party is raising money. The way no one has raised money ever before and they have no, for you know he has nothing to spend it on, but to bash Democrats for for ten months and he will do their best. What are the better arguments that economic, because he is comfort zone as culture, wars and Jesse Soft, you cannot make stuff, but this is no longer as combines until this very much combined them right. Ok, so let's go! Let's do some as Jonah. We govern says on his charming niche podcast do so little rank Pandit tree and taught, and in play Victor Games. Ok, so I'm gonna, I'm gonna, put everybody on record. Why not cause? Who cares? Ok,
you don't remember or less protection that we are discussing. We did this in the other twenty seventeen, but no remembers the he predicted. The collapse of the venezuelan government is very wrong and a predicted any economic surge in the United States, which is also wrong, but off by when I was in our I haven't, had a third dread. How are you wanted slices? Two percent growth is not so much fun, ok, I don't remember twenty twenty, who wins the President's come on we're doing that. One point nine, because yeah. I got it wrong for years ago. Right well, so self, that's it that's a little take the grave of solve everything- as that. Ok, let me back off and make this simpler. Ok, would you have guessed in October
as the Ukraine story was developing, that He would come to the end of December with Trump up in the polls anywhere between two and six percent approaching in some pulls his wooden, at least in in the five thirty eight average having highest pole brutal rating since March of twenty seventeen, and what does this portend for the future about that aim? Well, I would have expected it now: no, but I'm I'm no longer ain't, it liabilities its post tromp, it's very hard for me to serve protest those twenty. Sixteen is very hard for me to say anything. You know with confidence about Trump his popularity in and what any new cycle will do to him. I wouldn't I wouldn't be shocked at all if he wins, but I I I
I I'm like I've been I've had my had thrust my hands thrown up in the air since twenty. Sixteen saying I just don't know: ok Noah would you have imagined nor the trump would be in a stronger position and express its? He after became it. Now I mean that's a relative version, but I dont say the outside, but now I would not have predicted that, but like Abraham chastened and will decline to offer a few more predictions about the trajectory of his political, aspects. However, it seems unlikely that this is the start of some sort of upward trajectory. That's gonna be uninterrupted and we might have already Plateau just based on the numbers out. We ve seen rife already Christine. I'm not surprised that he's got a little boost. Other agreed, no, it's probably temporary.
As I think that all of us who follow in meticulous detail everything that goes on in Washington, in particular the Trump administration forget that most people, just don't care and don't watch and don't listen and all they need is a simple message not too far out from election time, and I think what trunk proved the last around is that he is able to deliver that to some degree, so I dont think I think impatient will seem like a very long way off to most american voters when it's time to cast their ballot for the presidency Unless and until I hit guess, we could say Trump to something insane between now and then, but I I would not be surprised at all to see him re elected, especially given the the current crop dump democratic contenders, because, with the exception of Biden, whose union seems pretty strong against trumpet many, these states that in there
they're. Just not that exciting. There is an obvious charismatic challenger to trumpet this point. Having watched the debate last week or whatever was Wednesday Thursday night in the middle of the debate, which I was certainly far from alone and viewing Biden as having one going away, unless you know if these debates matter cementing his position as the front runner and you now likely outperforming what people seem to think. He'll perform an island if he comes in our close second or first, I think that's the ballgame again less. He doesn't to blow himself up But I did about an hour in before the fireworks started, which were pretty exciting and interesting. I did have this. There was a stink of Republicans and twenty eleven about this debate that somehow what they were taught
about how they were talking about it and where they were on the map was There was something loser losers about what was going on, that it didn't really seem like any of these people could occupy the or could go up against Trump who, whatever he is a is a care, is now a creature of immense size. None of them seem big enough and and and the way that they were talking of
issues and even the way they were fighting just didn't seem commensurate with the moment, and I think that was part of what one felt during the debates, the republican Debates and twenty eleven was that. However, you felt about Obama, he was now occupying the White House in full. One of these people was gonna have to go up against them. The only one who seem to have any size whatsoever really was Romney, and yet even Romney didn't seem particularly impressive me. He was actually pretty good in those debates, but obviously, since people kept lapping him didn't seem an impressive, and that was my my senses that sorry, that bad stuff is that that the Democrats,
a bad track unless they can particularly talking about the economy, is over two thousand and nine, when the unemployment rate is a three point. Five percent and seventy percent of the american people say that the economy is good, are excellent. Seventy percent telling people that everything is terrible. The middle class can't get me when everything is awful and they are saying the opposite now granted. Those numbers include like ninety percent republican saying things are better, so maybe Democrats are closer to forty six dear fifty fifty or something like that. Nonetheless, that's a losers, that's what happened and eighty four and we would have an eighty four was wilder Mondeo ran the presidential campaign saying the economy is terrible and I'm gonna raise taxes, the economy grownup at attitudes in the second quarter. I think of twenty of nineteen eighty four and he was telling everybody the economy was bad.
And he lost forty nine states that I don't think Trump. The polarization the country doesn't make a victory like that at all, even conceivable and the trump will if he wins, an appeal climb, the same way he didn't waste. Sixteen nonetheless, anyway else. I've been well, it's kind of related that I will go on record. I will make one actual prediction and therefore make myself available to all Abuse should should it's? Ok, we won't remember it. Should it be completely wrong and it's this so a few months ago there were a couple of poles about african american support for Trump and talking about how it seemed to be. Increased significantly. I think by one pause measure. It was see he had like that twenty percent- whatever said forty, whether there was the smallest ok.
So there's a lot of question about whether or not that is real and I dont know. I doubt that that he has thirty four. Percent of the vote, but I suspect that We will see whatever the outcome of the election, some reflection in the in the fact that he will have gotten a much larger chunk of the african american vote. Then we would have suspected- and I mean- and then he did in in twenty sixty it's a very low bar if he were to drug double digits. Firstly, be re elected in something approaching a landslide second of all would be the best performance of any republican president's eyes. Now. Ok, I'm actually not sure, that's true demographically! You mean that It would be that it might be that it would lead well it because it's nice, isolated with african american voters, know what I'm saying if you tell them right, if minority views, if you took african Americans, where they we know where they demographic
Thirdly, where where they are, you know, for example, like Illinois. If, if he doubles, is lack of Illinois, he'll still lose, redoubles is black vote in awe and I'm in their very states where you know. If you doubles black Desert, Colombia's delusive, redoubles it, but not in Wisconsin or Michigan or Pennsylvania or talk, then add Hispanics to the map. Talk about Nevada, certainly, Georgia, Rhine all these places that are put in quoting play. Why don't we go out of Labour George Georgia's Georgia's, if Georgia's and Play of Georgia's genuinely and play than he probably loses the election anyway. But I'm just saying, like I don't know it's hard to its hard to make sense,
Supposing we also if there is also depends on whether their sub section Paul's, you know when you have when you pull out of a thousand person pole. What twelve percent of the population is that two hundred and twenty people, and so you are then you're, then determining our hundred forty people or whatever and then you're determining what who they you no way an entire ethnicity on the basis of two hundred and forty people nationwide. That's not gonna, be the margin of error. There is see no ten or twelve. I but there I think, your point about how the democratic nominees or in our talking about the economy is an is important one, because it's a strange. It's such a strange pathology of the Democratic Party right now,
unnecessary pathology. I should say it was worn- is the perfect example of this? You could still make your message about it, owed institutions and needing to reform capitalism, to make all those arguments that she's trying to make it to make the economy work better for everybody without the pretence that somehow the economy's bad right I mean she could have a more positive forward. Looking messages as we're doing great, but we're not doing great for everyone in here, so we need to change. Not the system is rigged against us. You know we ve got a blow it up and I think it's a testament to how far left on economic ideology. The party has moved in a very short time that there is no place even for someone like warrant who used to have fairly moderate views on some of this stuff. You know the book she wrote about. The two parent income trap, those sorts of things that are appealing to two non ideologically partisan, folks that she doesn't feel comfortable even making those arguments anymore is is, is, I think, unfortunate for the Democrats who want a strong candidate because they all have
say on this message. That is you note to the average person who seen who isn't struggling seems ridiculous well. I'm in this part of the problem here is that we ve seen real wage growth. Syria, wage growth for the first time in a decade and when you then have people saying well, it isn't really real, because even though they say it's three percent after taxes, it's only one point three percent or something like that, and then the voter than that people of the country say they think the economy is good. You're, then you as the rival are trying to kid. A cognitive dissonance in their own heads, their thing it's good because they feel better about it, not because there looking at the stats right. That's that's what we do. That's not what No, that's not what an average buzz courses today feel too. They feel the weather, felt and twenty eleven twelve twenty four, no, they don't, thereby their borneo I'd around. They are,
better off. I mean everybody's, better off real estate value, know if you, if you were underwater with your house, for most of the uniform from two thousand and eight to twenty fifteen or two thousand and sixteen you're not anymore, so you feel better if you're, making little more money or you have more job mobility choked flexibility benefits are being restored. All of that, then you feel better and telling people they should feel worse or they do feel worse. But you can, I think, make an argument that, even though that's all true people are very worried that their children are not going to have the same, the life that they had or not going to do as well as they do, and all of that until you can certainly play off that. That's what, on the other hand, you know this is the other weird part to me. So there's all this make college free make this free to make you no education, for you do more for the patients system? You know all that stuff which sounds great right, but then
you know that you no fewer than thirty percent of Americans, actually graduate from college, so granted that's a lot of people and no vote, probably but it. But if seventy percent of people actually graduate from college, and you are proposing essentially a gigantic entitlement, for you know what is a regressive entitlements since who goes to college right up with more well to do, people will tend to go to college. Is that a good? I mean that's where you start wondering what the who is hearing, what message like this that stuff implicitly help Trump with the You know with his with his base when it's all the Democrats want to do is give money to all these rich peoples and their kids to college. I don't know I mean I am I you know that that's a caricature, I'm I'm even playing with here, but now yes
I don't like them now. I actually dont. What's the tempter, what is termed a dork interplay of actually, while I dont think the message that message would actually resonate with Trump voters but aversion what what does resonate with em, at least from what we saw in twenty? Sixteen was, you know, attacking the be left as a as an elite universities as not not men or women, of the people, and that's what I mean when I say: if you look at the field of candidates, they have there isn't any one in their who could who could plausibly fight back with a message that suggest some level of ordinary nets or non elite status in the way that they talk about fixing problems is even top down. Elite is- and I think that that continues to be for people who voted for Trump, the first go round, and maybe your sceptic little more sceptical of em because of his his temperament in office might still find that message appealing when they look at what the
Is it our because it's a binary choice have got Elizabeth, worn up they're, telling urge you telling you she's going to tax the heck of everybody to fix. You know to get those two sense that she can rub together endlessly like a genie. I guess, because if we shall use those to paper everything she wants to do she's dead, there is a kind of top down technocratic, elitist tone too much of what she suggested. That does not play well with a lot of people in this country. Really muddy, though of Joe Biden has denominate. I agree. I agreed a man of the people affectation that Donald Trump marshals for himself is purely tunnel and purely about affect, and has nothing to do with how he lives is like style. I mean, and I actually does you didn't count. I let me how we lose his lifestyle in Europe and precisely Joe Biden owner the largest beach house in Delaware
he's going to present himself as this sensitive, a wine minors from Scratch, Pennsylvania and guess what it'll work yet because no one is going to question it, neurons, ok, but the elite thing. So this is the other interesting part. So if everything is so terrible right, everything is absolutely terrible. What is what was the one industry that was created that blue collar workers could fine new purchase in an employment in a world in which they could work anew with gills that you have as a blue collar workers working with your hands fracturing which employs. I don't know what it is: a hundred and fifty thousand people in the country right so, even that's like I mean it's not all, have not everybody's got black hands and blackened face alone with petroleum. You understand what I'm saying. Remember: twenty thousand dollar you're petroleum engineers don't I'm away
of that? But what I'm saying is that there is a there is some of them, but I mean they're also with our also gonna roughnecks, who are like actually have to dig the wells and stuff like that and and and cannot go down and use the dynamite do all that other stuff, and so you have an entire democratic party that is opposed to the existence of a brand new technology that is employing a hundreds of thousands of people in place of it. What are they gonna put in its place like, and this is where you just wonder, so this is actually I'm innovating about no good this as they are, and we need the democratic alternative vision here in so far as you can actually see it is that there needs to be generally public private, but mostly public funded are indeed effort to make solar and wind viable and the only real way make solar when viable is by
developing batteries that don't yet exist. The dilithium I m battery has limitations placed on it by the laws of physics, and we need to transcend that in order to get to a place where you can actually have patterns, like Joe Biden did, that gave us a footprint delivered this panegyric during the debate on Thursday to this nonexistent battery air gonna be batteries. Here. Let's say you never saw such battery. They are batteries that will go on forever and they're just day yields use em and boy. So I will just be the head of batteries. I'm a technology optimist generally that I'm not discounting the prospect of some sort of a new storage capacity. Technology that'll make these products viable, but they don't yet exist and as the bomb era effort demonstrated, throwing money at companies like solar panel manufacturers, for example, into the air, something that they will one day be viable in the market. Places
odd assumption and just generally a giant give away to favorite constituencies and that's most likely what initially I know you are also a straight line, projection pessimists, so even so any particular predict about what technology will arrive when gets said. He never anything as well. How you gonna, let you right recognised, called fusion was, I suppose you're right it entirely. The young. Let me give you another example: tokamak reactors rest ok, here's another example. So we have we have fraction as no a laid out the basic, the beneficiary of the economic crisis of the of the last decade, because there was no one, there was no there this something that was real to invest in order that it could also borrow money at low rates in all the other one we have, which is now in an interesting state, is of course the you know, serve the gig economy run
by app part partially right, which is so the Iphone comes in in you know, two thousand seven, and you know the app revolution is something apple did not anticipate if it had Dissipated that would have closed the market by the way would not have allowed all these third is to develop all of these acts, make billions of dollars off apple, that's not the way Steve Jobs did things ends, but what happened was suddenly. There were all these people out of work unable to get work and they had cars that they could such somehow then monetize or they could monetize themselves as temporary workers using technology which made it possible for them to find out what it was that they could do so edges list whatever wanna call all these jobs that could be done, freelance
and so suddenly we then had this world of the gig economy in this was gonna transform. Everything said: guess what now we're at full employment and guess what starting to die to get you kind of me in Because who want a job like that, I'm in a lot of people do but I'm saying that the idea that those jobs were replacements for actual jobs, with benefits that most people want, and they want to go someplace, that's not their home, maybe to work and have a second places you know another place to enrich their lives and all that and Meanwhile, you then have California declaring, in this psychotic way that California has now become harbinger of everything. Bad basically destroying not only the gig economy but the freelance economy or together in the state of California by essentially outlying
bidding companies from hiring people at gig, economy rights, so is the debt. Is this something this again raised a moment when the law- thing that Ebay really needed to do was regulate the gig economy. The gig cod is now being regulated out of existence in the largest state. Yet I had not seen this economic slowdown in the participation sharing economy, which consists of individuals with existing resources, leveraging those resources too for capital. I have not seen a natural organic slowdown of that activity. I have seen a lot of top down efforts to regulate it out of existence right, just uber and lift, but European Bee. And, as we said, the writers in california- and this is all in effort to incur this was his age? California was about Auburn. Let right it wasn't a so they re only reason why you heard about it because writers were targeted to and they happen to be writers. So they talk a lot and re writing.
Here the reason is all about. Can we made, I thought my box? Can we just yet thirty seconds to make from our vocs bars ex lays off several hundred people freelancers, that right for vocs, two months after published an article about how wonderful the three let this was the best freelance law ever every one wins, everyone wins freelance law, and then they have to announce that their laying off four hundred plant, but the people who celebrated that did win because competition that they faced from these low and low compensation. No benefits employees suddenly disappears, and also these are you shops now, so the union's get maintain their dues and people who are outside the system dump hitherto uses the same reason why the regulating our being before the hoteliers same reason why the regulating uber for the for the livery unions? All of these are unions. Your pressure and they're, getting benefits from their political front,
by the way, not just comic. It's not just for a minute. This is words. And darker. It's not just for the union sake that the bear the Airbus be particularly say here in New York City, where everybody was really interfered with. So many basically can only rent an apartment for thirty days or longer you get hugely find and all that its its tax collection right. It's all tax collection and whether or not they can rely on the governments are happy to pass the stuff because they can't boot trust that individual people who are making their money off air being be are going to pay the requisite taxes that they're supposed to pay. If they, that's right, but that's not your that's an enforcement issue. That's not your products, not my poor Ryan things. Whorra, California, which I thought was one of the best arguments made by a politician for Yahoo, but I heard this from politician is that that you know these you have
This freelance writers exert their just flooding the market with this garbage, like sports. Writing is terrible now, because most people aren't paid properly to do this kind of work, and who are you to tell us what kind of content we should have on websites yeah? I was that the priority of of Sacramento it's it's very depressing I just think the Democrats are in this very weird. They have put themselves in a kind of circular economic bind, which is that they and the most important position I think that was a visionary position that the party takes with is the global, a backlog, the change right it is. We if we don't take radical steps to address and combat climate change to the earth. It's gonna be uninhabitable right, so all must fall.
Next to this unproven. You know that this is the apocalyptic idea about what climate change will lead to write. It makes economic growth all but impossible real economic growth all but impossible that would you would have to interfere with it, no matter. What is what when people make more money right, they take more trips of their more planes flying so that they take with them more to fly around to them, so they put the planes take off and then there's ten thousand more flights and then there's more global warming and then there's they build more houses, We build houses. Your do. Carbon footprint is expanding. If you do this, if you have, this industry. This industry them has more run off and theirs oh answer, what they mean, what they want is economic growth, what they
decided is that the only way to get even now make growth is to tax a billion years. That's the only the only thing that is slightly fresh here, which has not you know, is this notion idea what here's whites new because what Bernie Sant where Bernie Sanders a smart is this we no and the lives of warning. Fergus, she saw him had to put this right that if you raise taxes a lot and you start dependent on raising taxes, the notion You can only raise taxes on the rich and collect the amount of money that you want is a fool's errand. It's not gonna happen and therefore taxes will inevitably be raised. Not everybody but Bernie Sanders is like three people have more money than the bottom, fifty percent, so they that's just too much money, so we'll just take half their money will take off their money, and then you know if, if that's, that would be like twenty five
sent of everybody's bunny, because three of them have half the money of everybody, and so then you have this kind of like that is the magical cheating that Christie was talking about right scratch. The surface. That's not really about any sort of economic effect that just the contest Asian is the point where the confiscation is the emotional point, but then you have this like guess what When no one will suffer include, the billionaires, because they don't need that money so that three of them I will just take half of Jeff Resources money and then we can fund Medicare for everybody, priests school and you, everybody will get a pony, an air defence Tom Styrene, like Limburger, making a very valuable case for the democratic claim that you don't need that much money. But the treaty ok, so I'm the only one who didn't so I I
I am willing to say that without a couple of things happening, that is a without from doing something crazy and without the Democrats, What getting a lot wiser a lot faster, that Trump will win reelection and the interesting thing to me as over the last two weeks- and I think that this is something that has come crashing home to people that I know who are trumpeters M want the Democrats to win and twenty twenty. They kept thinking that there was gonna be a magic you know. So you historic impeachment historic, historic, historic, historic, historic and nothing happens, and suddenly the fact that we are are closing in on twenty twenty that the economy is in good shape, even if they don't think it's in good shape.
And and no one is no one- is emerging as some kind of a democratic hero that they can all rally behind. Their panic is setting it I mean I, I don't think that's that's not that sir. I think this year has been incredibly disillusioning for them. Mahler was incredibly disillusioning, and this Ukraine thing is incredibly disillusioning and that now we should get to the question of what Nancy see his up to Nancy Policy is holding onto the articles of impeachment right. So, according to some cockamamie theory, come up with a come up. I Lawrence Tribe, who remains the single most overrated person in the history of the country, he's
war on and has always been a putz eighty hit and now is become a crazy putz, immediate on twitter and somehow said now. You know what you hold onto them until you until they till they tell you they're gonna, do what you want them to do? Ok, so if they doesn't transmit the archives impeachment there are, there is no impeachment wheel, but yeah. It's it's right is. The tree in the forest right as she doesn't send them to the Senate? They haven't finished the process of impeachment, so. There are still not an impeachment that cigarette till I hear that one thing we're going out a drill down on that cause. It's really hysterical. So that's Noah, Feldman's, Harvard professor of LAW, no Feldman's theory, is that not the articles are not transmitted to the Senate, then impeachment has not occurred. Even though the house voted to impeach the president onto articles. You know who disagrees with that. John.
Who was, by the way, the republican guy in the same in the house chamber, telephones, huddled in the area of elements. So now the White House is throwing out Noah Feldman. Talking point actually distributing them to repairs and Democrats are rolling behind jauntily. That's how stupid right our moment. Ok, So here's what's interesting. Remember the whole thing about how this is the most important thing that ever happened and therefore we have to do it fast, so that it won't interfere with Iowa right. Ok! So what the courts to adjudicate the court's. Forget them what happened in the last three days after impeachment this I'm all came out a memo that nowhere yourself you been saying, must exist. From now on be saying hold off on the aid, the memory two hours after this allowance, you phone call in July twenty fifth, rightly I do stuff. It's not exactly what I think I don't. I know you,
There is a real smart to get ex right. Why we why we did write about smoking? Ok, that would mean the matter of robots so they hadn't rushed to finish impeachment, so everybody could go home and you know them and make lockers and get out then spend rivals and have spoken out. Ok. What they could have had that member even way for freedom of Information ACT, request could have had that member, which is a choice which is a strong piece of now. Is it would change public opinion? No, would it straight in the case before the Senate, yes, Thou Chuck tumors saying now we have to be able to call witnesses. Why? Because the house rush this matter and are going to want to introduce new evidence into the Tri Mcconnell makes the case which I think is a strong case- that that is not but the trial is for that. The trial is Ford, did stressing the case that the house sends to the Senate not retreat
eyeing the case in the Senate that the trial, what Just doesn't make any sense. It makes total sends you not retrying a trial. I mean in the analogy, and it is only an analogy that this is a court room Bruce eating the evidence. Not offended doesn't doesn't in others a lot of places where that breaks down. But if that were the case, of course, the the venue Wareham, but that was not the indictments returned by a grand jury, is appropriate to do it's not a grand jury, and it's not an indictment that that the case is presented to the house that the term, whether or not the trial is to be conducted in the Senate, and then the trial is acted in the seven on the basis of the evidence that was gathered by the house. That has been the understanding of impeachment since impeachment started. That's how it's been understood, not just in the case of presidents, were impeach, but judges in like policy these things who, I think was the last. The last judge impeached who was now congressmen from Florida just showing how successful
is now that says more about Florida acts. That's drift nets drew anyway, but whether whether you accept this remind you, we do get. We do now have this evidence that Nancy Pelosi, the greater legislator of all time and the queen of the of the procedure, and all of that may have. Totally screwed this up in every possible way that she that by she gave it to shift who was an untrustworthy person, unlike manner who behave badly and in a fashion that Was impossible, Democrats to argue was not partisan. He advanced arguments that were the he continued to advance arguments that are belied by the fact basis that they are operating on the impeachment and for which they did not impeach and they rush that they rushed the matter to get it over with him.
Twenty nineteen, so I this puts a stain on her legacy, is the greatest political mind of our time. It seems to me. And I saw us and what she's doing is she doing this? Now you written a piece about this. What is she doing this because she wants to pocket in German altogether not have a trial and so Trump they should. They can say the trump was impeached because he's not and be convicted. So what is it? What does she mean trial for that's what everybody saying on his face. It doesn't make any sense it's just a face: saving excuse, but because both everybody saying that this is great for us, cancer saying you know he can now never be exculpating totally and now the weight as a saying
forbidden peach totally said just doesn't make a lot of sense from anybody's perspective, I mean what she's probably gonna do, as is fold pretty much, but I can only only thing I can think of is that she's trying to establish herself as of foil fur, Mitch, Mcconnell and the Senate, and create a dynamic between house leadership and the Senate Majority Leader, that's more what chuck humor would have in a proper circumstances, but she and Democrats in house believed there the better face of this thing. That's the only thing. I can think, of course, everything else. Does it make
since its obviously doomed to failure. It's obviously gonna be a giant set back she's, obviously just gonna be ignored in her impotence will be demonstrated. I mean it does its. These Eliza Senate has sent a percentage, is trying to say you know you have to establish rules and that obviously, the miracle of saying no I'm not going to? U cant dictate terms to us and also time is on republican side. They love this the poles of on going in their direction. Every persuadable republican lawmaker in that chamber is now going to face a lot more pressure from their constituents because they have a lot more time to be pressured and obviously it demonstrates, as you said earlier, the rushed nature of the House inquiry like we sat. There were court cases pending DOM again. I've been ordered by a judge to testify. It was in the appeals process than they pass. The articles in the cork goes well, we don't really have to do. Keep us anymore. Dewey means moot right
So I don't know this is a very it's a very interesting political moment, because, if, if, if you had said after the first year of the term presidency and how incompetent it was in terms of dealing with, say, health care- and you know we're getting, the votes are needed in all that stuff. In twenty seventeen, if you had said that Trump would output, a the Democrats? Procedurally, that hey nerve agent, that now we Democrats have always said we want to stay with the substance. Republicans only argue process. Now the democratic argument is entirely about process right, which is exactly what Republicans want the argument to be so. Ok
let's so I'm going to get to work at work with work will wrap up in a second, but I just want to do a little more predictions, just a few more predictions. Okay, do Democrats have a chance of picking up the Senate in twenty twenty and if they have a chance, how big of a chance will? Where would the the pathway come from gardener. Both Georgia Seeds, both Georgia, both Georgia, ceasing him exactly and am errors were that's an Arizona, so they pay their early warning Alabama. They need for right or they need five because those Alabama at his dogs aroused will we lose right? Yes, so, and they could lose Kansas by the way,
It loose Kansas Chris Callback as the nominal. Yes in Kansas The- and there is a tissue of Democrats winning in Kansas, mean I sell when the governor that's right and they and they ve had them. They ve had democratic senators in this century. So it's not like you know, my god. Kansas is voting in the voting in a Democrat, but so you could see three right: you can. You can serve see an easy three. Am he could see not easy, but Collins, gardener and weak sally and then so? You'd need to more so you're saying the two in Georgia or Kansas, We are really no ok, I tell us, maybe if, if North Carolina goes, I mean just die, it's just talking about its highly unlikely right, be omitted to twenty five produce, there's a twenty to twenty four.
Percent chance and as the five thirty eight people say, you know what the election fifty thousand times and there's a twenty five percent chance than twelve thousand times of the Democrats. When the how and when the Senate I mean, but with the top of the ticket, I mean it's all incumbent on top of a ticket right, Celimene that right, that would mean a gigantic blow out election for the democratic right of retirement across the board. Ok Biden is the democratic nominee. Yes, Yes, yes, the yellow, maybe two eyes. I again we're gonna go back to the five thirty eight metrics, so I'm gonna say probably seven out of ten right, but thirty percent of the time it's burning it's! Ok, here's the other question! Here's the other question is everybody thinks that even club which are did well in the debate and cheese? at least in one Paul and I were ten percent- and I was
to be one with like eighteen or nineteen per cent. The way things are going cuz you could have five people bunched up in the you know. Between fifteen and twenty, you know, Biden Sanders Warren, but a judge and Klobuchar, so any one of them if they're bunched up between fifteen and twenty could end up being number one shouldn't matter, but it does right, can clover char surgery. She just too, though, she was again today, I gotta get Virgin Iowa website. Could she said, National Nationally programme. But she had. She had a great focus group after that debate, avenues blast, another focus group, everybody laughed I mean she was good, she was genuine and when she went after about a judge for being for, for you now having a mouth to walk round, saying that nobody in Washington knows what they're doing when you know he got all of eighty five.
What's in the last election, I mean she didn't say that that's my my talking point that I'm annoyed that no one uses, which is that people to judge, wants to be elected President states when he lost the Dnc chairman race and its state treasure racing in Vienna and won the mayoralty of his of of his city with eighty five hundred votes and he's gonna go from that to being president when he isn't the most, when he is one of the most hasn't been whether was famous people in Amerika for thirty five years, which is at least what trump, as I thought that was incredibly effective on her part, and the shows, by the way how bad Warren is again because that whole wine cave thing was, was a cringing and I mean am I wrong was that stupid. It was open she, while she also did a wine cave like fundraiser rich. Can one that says that, right now we had. We all had to pretend over this weekend that drinking wine is now in its feet, pleasure reserved for only the extraordinarily rich
I am islands in among the guards, but that it can, literally by the stuff for ten bucks. You can take your own launching tour for a grand total of thirty, and if you want to add cheese, it's its another. Thirty! Ok! Can we talk about this by the way, because my I dont like wine. So you give me TIM Bower, you give me a glass of a ten dollar bill. Why are you give me? That's why you don't like? Like ten dollar bottles went to grow No or you give me a hundred dollar deal out of line rig me into the hundred now line. I can't tell the different will cable. For me, wine is in a feed pleasure because I actually do spend a little bit of money on this to our killer, whether you go, but you don't have to end. The pretend like you did is nonsense is another thing to do which was to Sterical is that she had this list of of wealthy people looking to billion urgently and ears in this country, and made a point of noting that the vast majority of them are white dry, your own conclusions, but here
people with monies expropriated, but then somebody pointed out that a lot of those white people were actually indian Americans from the sub continent and the list disappeared Jews too, by the way, who you know, I'm thrilled to be considered fully, why that's a new thing by the way, as I say, my grandfather, the milkman had known that he would be considered get out of the same. Pedigree, as Rockefeller that would have By the way, the richest actually Mare in America. Johnson though my gotta cameras, first name, the guy who owns jet and Robert Housing, thinks the trumpets gonna win the presidency so that we know what that has to do with any. But maybe he doesn't want his money spread by Elizabeth while they are populism is just really incomprehensibly stupid. Sometimes I mean
Shoes, terrible real, I think the real strength wait idea. She like Elizabeth Warrant, as long as there were no debate was with warm, was surging that, like from after her disastrous debut so from J Rachel June. She can't climb back up where we thought she was to begin with. And then start debating. I guess the first couple of debates and she wasn't the person in the line of fire didn't really matter and then, but she kept making those mistakes. Like the you know, suddenly heard. Tat entire campaign is about whether or not she's for Medicare. For all you know, nothings interesting about Buddha. Is that he's actually? Never been bad, I don't think he hasn't turned even Sabbath perform to respond. It has changed throughout. He is. He has been consistently that, while Amy Closures, thing was kind of distract information made a bunch of good points, but it's so transparently.
All right, but no I didn't. I didn't. I didn't I it's absolutely transparently personal. It began with her going after him saying that she is being he's being treated differently because he's a man- and I now I'm out of their way up. Then he said you want to try being a gay dude MIKE Penza me. I will first while when he started rang for office, it wasn't my pennsylvanian and second of all, he is a mayor of a college town that has not elected a republic, since nineteen sixty eight, so I'm really crying bitter, I'm sure by the way, being a gate, in my pensions in the end is why he's raised a hundred million dollars? I mean that's the thing. That's missing from the he's. Just a gay dude, because his position as the first serious gay candidate for president is the reason that he is where he is. I mean that's democratic identity politics on steroids, even though work starts was to think that a Demi politics counts for any banks are Kamel Harrison
working Castro Inquiry, Booker natural political talent. I know he's an amazing talented around for a long time he's amazing. Honestly, like he's he's the best natural debater in this context, I've ever. I think I've ever seen. I can't think of any body in I've, been watching debate since nineteen, seventy six or some. I can't think of anybody who has won almost every exchange that he has ever been in and he's been in these. But this is the sixth debate that he's been in and it's just mind blowing how much have what a performer he is. I mean you know so. Therefore, it's gotten into you, don't twelve percent, which may be an example of why these things don't matter, okay, so thick
You offer listening, thank you all for paying attention to us for whatever reasons and twenty nineteen and throughout whatever part of this decade you been listening to us. We will endeavour to continue to amuse entertain and I am, I will continue annoying significant minority of harm listener ship with my endless model logging and we get emails about how terrible am and yet these people seem to continue. Listen. So maybe I'm not that terrible, like the Howard, Caselli, has this puck anyway. So fora please enjoy the next day, seven days a Hanukkah, Merry Christmas to everybody who celebrate Christmas and a very happy new year back to you on these. Second, I guess of January with all new predictions that will not come to self he Ringwald nor Ross with existing resonant jump onwards,
the candle burning.
Transcript generated on 2019-12-25.