Today’s podcast is only our second before a live audience. Dan Senor joins us to talk about Israel’s collapsing government and the electoral prospects for the GOP in November. Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Hi everybody, so I just want to give you the order of the the order of the evening. Thank you all coming. Obviously this is very exciting for us. We are overwhelmed turn out and buy enthusiasm- and we can't thank you enough. So we are start we're going to do a podcast, including an ad read. I may I may singly the opening song, though that will be overdubbed the whole for the bass expect the worst sub brings. You pain, some die of thirst, no way of knowing which way
it's go out and hope for the best expect the worst hope I really will accompany this with music, that it's impressive. That yeah, you guys are it's amazing. Thank you very much. That is, of course, MEL Brooks from from the twelve chairs a little known fact that is a song written by Albert so not performed by mobile Ex performed by a bunch of strange, said: soviet sounding coral men so anyway, so I will just say. Welcome to the Commentary Magazine live Daily podcast from Palm Beach Florida. This is thrilling for us. It is absolutely thrilling to be here to be with members the commentary family, the commentary community, the commentary listening community, the commentary reading community
And that we will endeavor to put on a good show that will also make for a good podcast It's me as always: executive editor, Greenwell high hygiene, the writer Christine Rosen HI, Christine Hi John, associate editor nor Rossman, high Noah Hydra and joining us today for the podcast advertiser on the podcast cast extraordinary himself economic sage. political guru, and the author of among other things, the Revolutionary Book STAR nation co, author with his brother, along sauce, dancing or Seymour John, so dad? It is. bizarre that we should have arranged this months ago for you to be here because, as we sit here, we got the news this morning. the government of Israel.
has kind of collapse. You time this perfectly, like a master producer, yeah I've been, I knew it. I knew months ago that the government of Israel would collapse on April. Sixth, and then here we are indeed, if you don't know this, free, rickety at multi. You know Multi Legged animal that should not be able to stand on its own legs, parties. I believe, right wing Nationalists Aramis. You got everything right. So a member of the party that Prime Minister Bennett started yeah Mina has left the party and that single departure means that the government, or there is no longer a majority in the government, so sixty one seeds of Melvin gone to sixty and
so Dan as as as the person I turn to to tell me everything I need to understand that Israel first of all this, not like a crisis that the going to go into when they got to be, the comics of their house and buying them. except for next week. The comments thing was part of the you know the oh, yes, yeah, please, yes, yeah! We need to! We need to go into that too yeah. So what what so you want to just So I'm just saying like so: it's not Collapse tomorrow, like it's not like the government falls and that's that's. That's No, no! I actually don't think I think it's going to muddle along for a while many this government was at was was preposterous when you think about it, being set up would be the equivalent of like a. U s: government populated by TED crews and Alexandria, Ocasio Cortez
all serving in the same cabinet, and we really so that it has survived nine months and twenty three days, which is what it was a miracle in and of itself. I actually think it's. In a survive. For about another eleven months, if not longer, because so so Johnson sixty one seats existed. Parliament Israel is one hundred and twenty seats so and the private serve. Israel, has a a party of six seats. So here you the prime minister of a of a government whose party in a sixty one seat majority, the only has six seats of his own, so he was already a very weak government and so now it's sixty sixty and if, if one more seed, the other way and calls for new elections. There will be new elections and it would be the fifth israeli elections since April twenty nineteen. If that happens, No, I don't think that will happen. I don't think they're going to get sixty one seats to call for new election cuz, even if there are more parliamentary members of Bennett's government who feel pressure to step down. I don't think
sixty one members of parliament want to vote for new elections, because the reality is many of the parties there in the current government are pulling very poorly right now they would do in a new election. They It would not be able to maintain their same position and maintain their cabinet post and all the rest, a variety of reasons, they're incentivized not to call for a new election. They there could. Vote of no confidence that would collapse the government except There was a law passed in twenty fourteen that, if you want a vote of no confidence, you don't just have to have sixty one votes for, as but have no confidence to bring the government down. You also have to have sixty one votes to breathe a new government at the same time, You have sixty one people before the vote of no confidence to agree on who's going be Prime Minister, who's going to populate every cabinet ministry. What are the structures and guidelines that particular government going to be. I mean it's, the the israeli political class could organize that, while they're organizing a vote of no confidence is highly unlikely,
If you can hear this on the pot but its yes we're waiting there, what there was just a giant, bolder I don't know if there is such a thing as a bolt of thunder, I'm sorry and then the third scenario is they basically muddle along until next time they have to vote on a budget, so they voted on. budget. a to your budget already is eleven months before they vote on the budget again if the budget fails. Pass and the government not amount if we fall, so you have. I think, though, muddle along for the next eleven months, they made as a budget that point, I think it's unlikely and then after they make it pass that point and you get to August of twenty three when there's the automatic rotation between Ben. and the Foreign Minister of Israel, appeared Lupi becomes Prime Minister, and I think that has its own risk to collapse the government, so I think we're still a little under a year away from the government falling apart but you think between now and then well sought,
a political crisis and that there's government falling following new elections. I do think, It was already a weak government and is now going to be a much weaker government and in all the issues those dealing with all the risks of Israel's dealing with. That is a precarious situation. So let's try to unpack what happened you mentioned. This was the fifth that that that would be. This would be the fifth election, we're three elections, twenty nineteen onward in which no government could be formed, and then this fourth election. Finally, this hazing t at nation of circumstances created this bizarre, a government that You know, under other circumstances, is Israel the times crisis has come together and you know, and in coalition governments to sort of you know speak with one voice. You know in the midst of a crisis and and and and represent the interests of
of all of Israel. You know against stub, against domestic or by against foreign threats. Let's say that is not the case here. So this is not. You know this is this is not a consensus government or a national unity government. It is a government of a rigged, bizarre jury, reg thing and by the way I had thought the government would not survive, but I always do I was going to be a security crisis, meaning I thought it would be like if there were another Gaza war because there's an islamic party in the government. I thought that six seat government that sit that six member party would pull out and that would you know there was always these risks Only if there is a security crisis going on in his right now, but that's not why the governments hundred bresh right, which is with right, which is a fascinating cause. Obviously there have been five terrorist attacks in the last two weeks and it's the first real incidence of of of serious terrorism and in a couple of years, and yet the the minister who pulled out pulled out, as as as
saying to me. Before almost for personal social reasons, I mean a larger. This is this is not meaningless. I'm not saying that it's you know people or yelling at her jewel and that's why she No, it by Butt Bennett who ran as a tribune for for the for the right is increasingly viewed as somebody who is betraying the interests of the of of of Israel's religious Population right yeah, no, so you mean a which is the Bennet Party is. It is a very right wing, some some members, very religious party, religious nationalists, and they
he had always committed when they were running that they would only serve in a right wing government and in fact, when Nathan Yahoo was trying to form a government. After the last election, Bennett was ready to serve in a in a right wing government. He just said that Netanyahu can't cobble together more than fifty nine seats, which means he can't form a government which means there is no rake up right wing government to form which is why I'm violating which he says was not a violation of violating my pledge to not to not serve or lead a right wing government do so Nat Nat, what's going on in this you until when, when Benedict read to do this, nothing, Yahoo and others around him, we're arguing that you know you mean it were sellouts and many members of human of the parliament. Members, if you mean that is John said, are for who were in Jerusalem or near Jerusalem in very religious zionist communities, and they literally are going argon like shop synagogue. every Saturday and their stories, particularly with this. With this one parliament, member Stillman, who is the one who,
about where they're getting like harangued at services, which is about the way, a very common experience. I mean, I know what it's like to be harangued at synagogue for this, that and the other thing so, but but they are they are getting harangued at service it in their communities about what you know for being sellouts, whether it be characterized as being sell out she is apparently she's inexperience, she's new in the job she's she's she's, the coalition whipped, should actually not a minister. Scottish websites are mortal not a very prominent position and she's under pressure for a long time. There's one other member, and you mean that is also pretty vulnerable to defection the one that everyone's wondered about, whether or not you would defect as a yell at your cat who's, the Interior Minister, who's a real powerful force. politics and she's in your Mina and cheese. It's interesting to someone explain to me like she's in a different like souls www. She doesn't even though she's part of this right wing religious party. She lives in TEL Aviv. She you know kind of travels and secular circles.
and she is not as susceptible to that kind of pressure. and she is also very close to Bennett and their close personally in the relationship just just this fund Perth that proper, medical point: she hired Bennett for Bennett's, first political, So she was working for nothing Yahoo in two thousand six, when nothing who was opposition leader, she was at the office manager and nothing Yahoo's opposition leadership, and she hike she interviewed Bennett to be the chief of staff. Of course, this these legacy right. All these people who work for BB have now gone on to have these medical careers- often in opposition to him maybe not such a great legacy, but But so she hired Bennett and they work together and Bibi's opposition leadership, office and they've been very close friends, so I think she sticks by him, but you know I wouldn't be surprised if one or two other I have a question questions you. Could you talk about a little of what BB has been two throughout this, because he's been saying to effective defectors come home?
right. What welcome home is apparently offered this one. You made a member there, the health ministry, if it in a new government, so he's he's basically doing three or four things: he's got this little legal he's got us sort out, so that takes up a bunch of his time. He's writing. A book he's writing a memoir, which I actually think is going to be excellent cause it's the first book he's written in about since is yours, yeah yeah, some place among the nations? Yes, that last book you wrote shaper okay, so he wrote that I think of the nineties. So I think I think the book will be pretty interesting, and then he's been hanging around the hoop. I basically trying to see if he can, if, if Bennett falters fault, if there at major stumbling. I don't think he anticipated this, that he could try to cobble together his own government and get sixty one seats. He still can't, though I mean that's the prop. I mean he will say this He says he still not. There he's still not at sixty one seats in the challenge, for him is even if
everyone whose, in the opposition technically the opposition, now supports the government falling and supports new elections. Six of those sixty one members are part of the Arab Joint list who don't want to be quote, unquote, quote complicit in a move that results in nothing Yahoo being coming back to power. So so It's not like nothing. Yahoo is sitting there right now. It's sixty six that he's actually got fifty four seats, so he's find seven seats to put together With a new government or force new elections, so I think it's pretty tricky, but that's he's been doing his his his legal stuff, his book stuff and then his into offering to try to see if he can pull together a government. So you know we often talk about people. People say when they're talking about american politicians that they like who seem to be stumbling and doing incredibly foolish things of no. No, no, no, no, you know they're playing for DHS you just don't you can't see it they're doing they're. Making moves are so brilliant
and it's of course never true, except in Bibi's case. I agree with Bibi Place forty Chess and he has come a cropper, because his big four D chess move in two thousand and fourteen. was precisely this decision to couple the no confidence vote with the new government that was way of defending his majority, because whereas there was no point in ever calling a vote of no confidence against the could. Once this once this bill was passed in two thousand and fourteen. Because you have to couple it with a fully assembled government. At the same time, it was an insurance policy. Now he would love is that why didn't exist because they Call the vote of no confidence, and then the government could collapse and then he could form a government without an election right right and so right, his his maneuver, which made sense? And twenty fourteen is a massive obstacle for him now right
the forest, so you can lose worthy chats, obviously have been less he's as he's playing mighty, which I am actually is a fan Netanyahu with, I mean there's still that moves you, I mean. What what's fascinating about him, obviously, is that he is a titanic poetic. figure in a democracy. He is the. He is the most impressive political player that we've seen in a in a western democracy. You know in a simply as a political maneuver and I dunno if in our lifetime, but but close, it is pretty close and if he can, if he can somehow pull off the x traction and the collapse of the Bene. Government. It is own return to power. That will be the capstone achievement of this amazing game that he is able to. Player. He lives in a country in which nobody else seems to know how to do any of this and he can. But
so in essence, the governors it means that it just as was true of the the previous elections. After twenty nineteen the government in power. Just continues to go on. But that raises one question I wanted to bring up, which is There is some idea, broad that when there was this historic meeting in the Negev between Bennett and repeat and Tony Blinken and. Marine yeah about the bahraini are any foreign minister, the rice that that. Blinken said that the settlers were great obstacle to peace and that Bennett did not make a public disavowal for an attack Blinking for doing this might therefore blinkin deserve some credit or blame for the collapse of the benefit of Irma
you? You are. Rather, I am sceptical because I've been out for this one another. When I heard that Bennet this frustration within Bennett's coalition, the right wing part of its coalition, that he's been using the term West Bank recently hasn't been, rather than Judaism, this is like gone soft. You know
I just think there's one hundred examples of these sorts of slips. If you want to call them that over these last nine ten months, I just I it it's hard to know what actually trip this government up. The reality is it's. As I said earlier, it was a really weak government trying to run a government with the sixty one seat majority. When you control six seats, you are about the weakest prime minister, and he made the Bennett may turn out to be the shortest serving Prime minister in Israel's history. I just think it's very hard to pull off and so you're always susceptible to these, like I'll, give you an example such so. The other piece of heat that is being directed Bennett is that you know, is Abbas, not Mahmoud Abbas, but a mentor boss, who leads the these Islamic Party, the Wrong party, which is in the government that he's included them in the government and that's like a sign of of weakness. So, in light of the recent these terror attacks in Israel over the last couple of weeks, a friend of mine, today
they told me they were driving home from work, and there were these big billboards, saying Abbas, meaning this member Bennets government Abbas equals Hamas. So like a boss, this this guy, who has a big role in this government and is actually kingmaker, and this government is response, simple for birds indirectly responsible for the violence and he might as well be Hamas, and so I mean, when you hobbled together the kind of government, the Bennet his cobbled together and when the make up for the government was an some party and your play waste is on the right. You're always mean who knows if it's this blinking thing or it's that thing? I don't believe it was one thing versus the other. I think it was inevitable It was going to be this kind of collapse. As I said earlier, I always thought it was going to be like another Gaza war. That would do it well, so a it's interesting as, of course, our perspective from here has been very focused on the israeli response to Ukraine and Russia, and this sort of thing
We've talked about on the podcast and we've written about on the blog and have articles about in the in the upcoming issue of commentary, which is the horrible position that Israel finds itself in, because it needs to have a working relationship with Russia in order to order to keep a disaster from occurring in the skies over Syria. So they have to have an open line of communication with Russia and therefore it's pretty frightening for them to have to come out full bore on on the side of Ukraine, and then you have all kinds of interesting crosscurrents people, as you know, as nationalist sickly, driven, as the time she ran ski actually came out and said we have to back Ukraine like we. You know this is this is a moral necessity for us and then it has to walk in a bed. I'm lucky them. This government has to walk this very, very fine line, but so weird
This done that, and you know, people are saying why don't we do want to give. I am dome too. To Ukraine like I don't want that which would work in sound like you like in a Manila envelope, and you send the iron dome out here, open this and set it up in the air some direction. Yeah yeah, I know it works against a certain type of projectile. Russians aren't using it anyway, so the whole thing is ridiculous, but it's just another way of attack Israel and legs and saying whoa, this rules are so hypocritical like it wants to be, and of course, because the lenski came out, you know it came down on Israel hard in his speech. That was another occasion for this kind of you no pressure, but could it can add one point to visit that often? I still believe that Israel is an Indian, a great deal in this position, owing to the United States Heading they sort of Syria file to Russia.
in the wake of the of the Chemical weapons attack in Syria right I mean, and that of courses that that that, of course, is what haunts Lansky in my view and shut HANS Alinsky is that you're? You have a President United States who was the vice president in the in the administration decided to get itself out of a jam I a signing a certain political role that it proved that we refuse to play to the Russians and- and if we have, Looked at Russia and seen it as a partner, then and we have Russia negotiating games with us in Vienna for the IRAN deal. Who's to say that the Biden administration won't turn around and screw Ukraine. With some kind of fancy. Pansy move on with with Russia.
I mean it's hard to imagine that now now that you know now that father ran out stalks of collapsed. Therefore, we need to talk about right, because I don't know that Tony again said today that he does not believe that the IRAN deal is going to go forward. That is a cute now, can I take victory lap, because I need to take a victory lap because I am- I have been saying for Months- I told you so their panties Ravis, my favorite Randy Travis Song. So I've been saying for months that there was no way that we that the run deal could go forward. The way we're talkin about rush it just doesn't make any logical sense and now
I could have saved himself says, he's very skeptical that it would have gone through if it had become it. Hadn't become dissent potatoes for Russia to pursue this deal. It doesn't need iranian oil flooding the market at a time when it's trying to flood the market with its oil trying to drive up prices for its commodities. Well, that's what I mean that's an important point and of course, so Russia Rights of Russia plays a role in tanking it, but saying the logic of where we are as a country on this matter. the military and against the possibility of the role that Russia was supposed to play as a sum as some kind of external guarantor of the terms of the Iranian, I mean We have presented its calling him a war criminal, saying yes to be removed from power, but it's ok we're going to give a hundred billion dollars to the arrangements and their good they're gonna. Keep the Arabians honest like that. This knowledge and notes and nuclear fuel radicalism, IRAN to Russia and Russia saying honorary lead in case the deal falls apart that they can be the guarantor.
The deal by hang and you'll get paid for Russia will get paid for it by the people is plus one very, very schizophrenic, sell But it was an interesting decision by blinking to come out and actually make a public. statement about how the IRAN deal is is dead that it or or he didn't say it was It was a hint, it wasn't a death sentence. I think you never over estimate the sanctimonious self satisfaction and sophistication that our foreign policy under Biden feels they have when it comes to all of this I mean we're talking about Lincoln, like he's playing forty or five 5d chess, I'm not so sure. That's generally his his I I think we do we keep, saying that there's no passively to the to the orb report, People have been saying this now for a week or so that by restrictions very opaque, it doesn't leak, there's very little. We know about the internal dynamics of the Mmm,
All we know is the common Harris's offices is a you know, is a is a crap show, but that is not my writing hunting that out- and I remain have one hundred there messaging outright wreck, but but we very little view inside. What's going on between Jake Sullivan and blink or who's? Who, who is you know, championing the talks in Vienna in the foreign policy, team of observers who who isn't but I'm not surprised that the IRAN deal was a campaign promise that Biden, that he is attempting to fulfill at it, actually makes no practical sense for Blake it makes a lot of sense for Rob Mally. This is all romilly wants out of his life is to sell America to IRAN. Apparently it's you know, he's like been trying to do it for years and he's back at it and he'll try to do it,
as long as he as long as he lives, but it makes no has made no practical sense for four blink, ten and, if there's a what a political reason for buying to pursue it, and there does not appear to be a geopolitical reason for the go on one second longer well. I would also argue that heading into twenty twenty two there is a real. This becomes a real political, lively for Democrats, I think for reelection eighteen Democrats, eighteen democratic members of the House and Senate were going. I dunno if they did it, because I haven't been on today, but did they. They were going to have an event today, which they were going to say we express enormous concerns about the IRAN deal. It's about. Robert Menendez, yes leading at the Centre of Jersey, but but a whole. My humour in this Alan Donnelly, well, Dennett gel demagogues was going to be at this press conference as part of her campaign to be governor. Florida
was so she was basically going to come out against the IRAN deal, yeah and, and so in the the part that apparently really freaked out a number of Democrats is when there was. This discussion is part of the deal that this ultimately collapses. Part of the deal the Iranians were arguing that they should be the I r g C. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps should be delisted from the list of foreign terrorist organizations by the US government, which His removes these these the IRA Gc from sanctions and imagine your chuck Schumer for your Menendez or your senator Cardin, another senior member of the Foreign Relations Committee Democrat having to vote on whether the I r g c should be delisted as a terror organization. While the Democrats are literally fighting for their lives heading into November, twenty twenty two- I just think so you say it was a it was. There was something political for Biden to getting it done, because he said he would
get done. But I don't think I think it was a real political nightmare for the Democrats, who are an excellent transition from one collapse in government to the next yeah yeah. It is, but before we get to that. That was a fantastic transition. I've I'm going to interrupt it because you know it's time. You've been waiting for it. It comes. Hopefully. it's the x chair are you all. Are you off from there with the x chair? You probably have never heard of the x chair, so let me introduce you to the dynamic variable lumbar kit. Is that support for your back? You can't believe it Why were home right now doing this progress from my home? I would be luxuriating, as I lean back in my ex chair with the support that I have always wanted and never had before. What's more with that element, temperature regulation technology if I'm
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so prefer these add reads than when he did the Tommy Johns underwear. We had several complaints from yeah rides right. You that's. Why we're gonna Johns Devalue, there's a power ban? That word has asked John. We don't have to worry about how you press a button. Takes you thirty seconds. It has risen again. You know the problem for me. As some of you know, I do another Punkahs called called glop and- and we have some of the same- we have some the same advertisers and and some the ones that I, what both do for commentary anymore are still on on on glop and I still have to read some of the most Harrison Copy. We never had kitty poo on this, Castro and we d on glop anyway. turn to exactly the politik who can, under the Democrats, find themselves in that that tony blinking may have
located them from in, announcing that the IRAN deal was you know, was I was taken on water, okay, so the numbers are absolutely terrible for that Every portent for the Democrats is terrible, so terrible that you would think There would be more talk about how terrible it was in them extreme media and there is, but it comes out, dribs and drabs are sort of a piece in politico. Here, there's a note and axios there. I want to get a politico piece of political is just too good to pass. Okay. Well we're going to talk about the beta there's no Naxos there there's a piece about a focus group. That appears in the Washington Post one day. Nobody follows it up, but you know let us psychotic Congresswoman from Georgia, burp and there's. You know five days worth of coverage, so. So let's talk about this and
Damn has it has. It has a window answers, but no one yet so The four major issues, the United States, all of which Democrats are in terrible terrible positions are alike. Electoral than this was particularly revealing, not because it was just another focus group where a washing anecdotes about if Jesus Christ was was a report on a focus group predicted by Democrats were a series of focus group conducted by democratic lists. I think it was Democrats as for the remaining with the voters, wherever the risk we're asked about a series of issues, and it was the tone of this piece that was so jarring because it was sneering. Tempt us towards them. Politicians who have convinced and ended the talking in the press cater to democratic interests to have convinced themselves, in the words of this political peace that all the war. All America needs to understand that this economy is great, is forever the media to keep talking about how the economy is great. Why and then there's political pieces of the they have convinced themselves of a fiction
snare narrative that they ve married to in their heads and it doesn't match voters. Experience in these are democratic voters, whose issues where crime, urban crime and in full and then the economy and the produce purchasing power. This is everywhere all of our lives are affected by this. You can ignore it, it's impossible to ignore it, unless you self selecting close to yourself to such a degree- and we ve seen this impulse for quite some time and February. There's gonna be a pull that really illustrate over this issue, top three issues for you Republicans. It was inflation and the economy, immigration and what was a third time for an cried. Thank you, immigration, fishermen crop for independence much the same little bit less intense, but the same: inflation, the economy, crime and immigration, and for debt grants their top three issues were climate change? election laws and the covert pandemic
which ranks dead. Last in a Pew research center poll of the dead last, various by anybody accept Democrats anymore, finger well, the pulse of the nation, but this is what they are talking to each other about and which is why they seem completely unprepared for the prospect of collapse. They talk about it as What's coming, they know it's coming, it's an earthbound asteroid, but I don't think they can we've disappointed them. Don't you understand? It's really, not their fault. We're just disappointing them by not embracing the alarm is notion of really about climate change. If any of you have young kids who have gone through any sort of educational public educational system, you know this I'm home right over with with the drawing of the cow at the big ghostbusters, slash through it. It's like you, don't eat me. It's killing us all the waters. Are they mean that there is a narrative fear that that extreme but its? But it's come normalized and I think in certain circles proclaiming Democrats it's the inflation and crime stuff up going to get them, though, because
that's something where you can't blame the victim literally their blaming they're, not enshrine its immigration- that I find most shocking because it shows up in every pole is top issue just for Republicans independence, but everybody Republican Kay. It is our feeling ad after ad thirty second spots, only on immigration- and you can- you Haven'T- heard a word of it in mainstream press it just it's not as though they're trying to refute a narrative, they're, not acknowledging the narrative exists when it was about a year ago when, when there were, I think when there were migrants for master under the bridge and it got some attention and then the White House essentially said to the press leave us alone on this we're going to take care of it bank, at that book, at that you, when we, when we finish taking care of it and kind of listen. They they they Harris was given the was given the the job, and you know when you give Kamel a job that job is going to get done phase. I that's a birthday, and you know like I, you know I I I hope
They put her on every. because I think you know countries can be, but that this important ass this does go a little bit to those gets a frantic nature. The messaging, because no is right there not trying about immigration, except to lift this time of forty two, which we discuss this restriction, that was it Yours underlined afore right, so I call it is done in some places, but not in others writes a student loans which we talked about, but guess this morning still covered is causing PETE lots pay their loans back, but the economy's great, and we should let everyone over the border because Cove it's done and stop saying that the economy is bad because Cove it is over and you can wear your mass, but you don't have to wear your masks and its confused There isn't actually a clear message and the commonality among all this is all coming down from the White House. The White House's is constantly undermining. If are not allowing them to run local, not allowing them to way from the White House where they need to which they really don't have to for Democrats, but they certainly do when it comes to just another issue coming down. The pike like masking like getting rid of
title forty two which no one wanted and no one's asking for student loans for no reason they just give him more stuff to defend on the trail. Just leave us alone, so damn you're. Somebody who, who talks a lot to you know errors talk a lot like just leave it. I just talked about, but you'd listen, yeah mirror less thorough, our good listener. You listen Other people tell you a lot of interesting things so been told we have the focus on. You know that reduced how redistricting didn't go the Republicans way and Democrats of save themselves some trouble in the registration process, getting some seats back and have been told that you know we leave the field of seats. The Republicans might be able to get. The house is now our than think because of the big sort and and where people are and them and all of that and and actually in the Senate, you know there's a lot of close stuff, but you see
comments are gonna pull, it would do in some good fun, raising and all this, and I think, while this kind of this kind of A bright eyed conversation among among Democrats and media people is making them very it's calming them down to some degree and quietly From what I heard like the National Republican Campaign Committee is slowly, but statically expanding the number of seats, they think they can contest right. I think they're up. somewhere around eighty past mobile feats that aren't that they consider in play that they will devote resources to, and that's no that's, no joke right, because if you say see this play want to commit something to it and there that's money. That's a zero sum game. That's money you spend at there. You won't spend it somewhere else.
expand the field because things are going your way and because you have a lot of money and because you actually think you have a real shot there, and then we have to talk about the Senate. But let's so, let's I mean I agree with everything you're saying the House: let's talk about the Senate, so the Senate, it's the same arguments made that the path is too narrow for Republicans to win the majority for Republicans to win the majority. They have to defend two of the republican seats that are open, which are Pennsylvania, North Carolina which I think, let's assume they will and then they have to incumbents, that could have tough races, Florida and Marco Rubio and RON Johnson Wisconsin so for a variety of reasons, I think they win both of those to Florida. I think Rubio will run away with it with the santas at the top of the ticket. Wisconsin could be tough, but the Democrats are about to nominate someone truly crazy. So that- and that's saying something so so I think even Johnson will be okay. So then, where the pick up there's Adam lacks all whose can be the republic in that nominal.
that he's a terrific candidate and we should win that win that race and then there's Herschel Walker Potential in Georgia, which that race could get complicated, but let's assume EP pick set up. He wins that so, if a black, or Walker Win and we defend those four seats. I said earlier republic, The majority going to Jordan then, okay, so that's a narrow majority. So now, let's start saying we get a real majority. Could Republicans get real majority? So that's Shahid in New Hampshire so pass on your sorry, son, rapid change, the other right, the Democratic Right so she'd, so Republicans were disappointed. Mcconnell was disappointed when Governor Sununu didn't run, but the state Senate President is apparently pretty interesting guy and he's a pretty good candidate and he's not polarizing and he's fundraising, so there's a shot at winning. at rates, but my only point is there's a few of these that no one's really paying attention to that could break, and if it's a real wave election, which I think it will be all Signs are you know, Biden has
record, low approval rating, seventy percent of the country thinks they're on the wrong track. it's amusing to me what I'm seeing like that, the advice that the White House is getting from Obama and Hillary Clinton were like Obama. This visit White House, and he was like you just tell your story. You know your stories great. If you just tell your story when seventy percent of the country thinks we're on Amtrak, like, let's trade, talking about that story was, I really trust a Biden story anyway. Yeah, that's true exactly so, but I think there were, if there's a real wave election, I think you will see more than just New Hampshire opening up. I think you could see like there are it's funny that you didn't mention Arizona, I think, others generally believe, there's a republican parties and capable of competing in Arizona anymore right. Well, if I do worry about who who we potentially nominate their end we should not mean we should always in Hogan and New Hampshire, It's all about out for a reason right. No, no! It's in its, not because the environment is because nobody wants to go to the Senate anymore. You others there.
There is also yet they do say they want to. I would trump and there was a complicated just just do you don't wanna be brine camp? enjoy. This is the governor of Arizona he was. He was the candidate that everybody wanted to run as a Republican in Arizona, and he said he's not going to do it and the I guess the question Is whether- and this is this is where it gets interesting- whether the Arizona Party will nominate a lunatic like a person that very very easily caricature word or were made fun of or trashed and whatever you may make of MAR Kelly You know, he's he's an astronaut. You know, I mean it's, not not he's. Not an answer is per year. I mean he's. You know he novels charismatic person. I've ever lived, but you know, and and- and he has tacking way to the centre has fallen.
he's following cinemas, we'd like crazed last fourth, and and immigration he is leave, he is attacking the administration for the lifting of, finally just vote against some come out to get some nominee over the labour labour or at the head of ours in wages. Yes, oh here He is localizing his race right. I've been in that, since he is, he is saying I look I'm going to do what I can to win this race, and that means making myself palatable to independence in Arizona to the extent possible, with the possible, with the assumption that Republicans are going to nominate the unpalatable, but in a wave a wave. Sorry, this is the thing about waves, unpalatable people, women Way rice because waves at two components right incredibly energized population of Republicans and republican leaning voters and you have a depressed population of democratic voters,
the two you know end up, creating the conditions nationally for everything. That's close, just some one direction right, but in that's why some of these states it again that no one thing tat. You should take Washington State right, Patty, Murray, totally entrenched Democrat she's running for reelection now. Should there there she should have a cake walk through reelection. So what's happened. You know since Patty Murray last, ran for reelection. Well, like Seattle, Seattle don't know if you all followed, what's happened in Seattle, but it's like, I didn't even know just open air refugee camp, downcast ape escape from Seattle- is able to Seattle. Re aren't so so then. Last year there was an election at the local level, King County, which is the county in Seattle, Seattle, where the most
your county wide official state was a county prosecutor was up for reelection and a Republican won the King County prosecutor's position. It's the first time in something like forty years that a Republican has won in Seattle. In a countywide position. So then you so that's sort of interesting and then there's this when Smiley who's decided, who a health care practitioner who's, a charismatic woman he's a family in Seattle and she just got freaked out what would happen. downtown Seattle and she says you know what I'm running against Patty, Murray and Patty Murray she's on you know: you're a neophyte, you don't you don't you're you you don't you can't be Patty. And she's quietly building campaign quietly raising real funds. Do I think, Patty Murray is beatable right now. It's debatable. Do I think we could wake up and
it's a September and suddenly a lot of these races are starting to be five point. Races were meeting like smileys five points behind Murray in an environment like this, where republican turnout is going to be through the roof. If you're a Democrat, an entrenched Democrat running for reelection, you want to be going into election day like seven to ten points ahead. You cannot be going into election day zero, two to five points ahead, because if turnout is massive and there's a big wave, voters are going to turn out from corners. No one was paying attention to and they're probably not voting for you, the entrenched Democrat, which is why I wouldn't be surprised if Mcconnell, the the National Republican Senatorial Committee and the Republican Super Pacs, you start seeing in like since September they start spending money in places like Washington State in Vermont, for Pat Leahy, see where an interesting candidate is just a just decide to get in the race to run for lazy so it. You know. Yes, it is a vote. On the one hand, it is a very narrow path to Republicans winning the majority. On the other hand, I think it's entirely possible that we wake up
in November after election day in public until like fifty three or fifty four fifty five seats in the Senate right so so the question is: what is it that Republicans can do to screw this up that well that that's ultimately, always a party question right, because we were watching that we we have seen Democrats do it in real time. twenty. Twenty months I'm on top of the ticket, I mean we heard about that phone call, ACT, the twenty twenty election, the Abigail Spanberger, the Congress woman from Virginia whose screamed on the phone about you, people who did defend the police who lost South Florida? For us, you ve law, you know we lost thirteen seats in the house. That's all you! You did it and you did it with your eyes open and we could have told you and you didn't listen to us right. So we've seen in real time Democrats,
you know take things that are winnable and make them lose able, because of their illegal. Take that and go back to the focus group for a second, it's a really fascinating focus group in part because one of the things that they mentioned, that democratic theyve internalized all the lessons from twenty twenty right, where no one says do from the police I mean more, even though they almost all of them are on record. To that extent and they're like we, we got it. We heard from you know more to fund the police right, we're actually funding that we're providing more local funding to police right in this focus group. The democratic voters who were asked about this issue talked about crime as a problem of policing and prosecution, because it's the prosecutors, core and sentencing reforms, prosecutors for failing to charge, failing to prosecute prosecutable crimes and sentencing reforms at the legislative level have made it so that in bail reforms have made it so that repeat, offenders recidivists can get on the street, commit crimes again go back to jail, get out, commit crimes again, and they experienced this. This is their daily lived experience
there's nothing to do with defined the police. It has everything to do with idiot. Eighty ology nets affected prosecutions and the lack thereof, I think that's a very important point- is more important to point out that it doesn't add whether you live in a place where there is, progress, a prosecutor who is doing this, as as as as we are as we all do, or both of us do, like the three of us live in Manhattan. We're Alvin Brag is at get made as a public pronounce that he was going to prosecute misdemeanours random in that was his like. That was his blanket rule. But because a social media and the way news travels. This has been a nationalized issue. So it's like if, if there's, if there's bail, reform in New York, It makes you feel unsafe in Arizona, because Crime is not isolated, but, like people feel less secure, I know that these things have
Larry, roll over secondary effects elsewhere. There's that there's also did to know his point about the sentencing. In particular, I think that's what sparked so much backlash or discussion on the tonnes you Brown Jackson nomination write her sentencing decisions as a judge became a big cultural flashpoint, not because republicans are being mean to our nominee, but because there were some serious questions that people wanted to raise about the leniency of some of her sentences given given what we know, our citizens resident in the Orient exactly so became this way to try to have a discussion that, as you said, Democrats do not want to talk about this, except to say we learned our lesson about deepen the place. Now we just want better police police reform, fund, policing, violence interrupted, that's answering the fear and its true that the Dnc headed the Dnc went on when on the news was like Republicans, one fear and fascism in fraud. That's what they stand for, but
there is real. It's a very motivating force for voters and they're going to take it to the ballot box soon, and I think Democrats will learn that lesson again. I think but buddy it's not just that, if you're in Arizona and theirs. Rising crime in New York you're a user through Continental osmosis in Arizona There's probably a crime crime rise in Phoenix because it is, is really quite widespread, yet not sure yet right. But I'm saying I'm saying that the that the two and I think that's. Why Noah's point about the process so important that the that the who are now combined so that you can have a crime rise, but your Europe's criminal justice system where you're living locally has not surrendered. Yet to this intellectual eighty illogical wave, but it could put any minute. It could any time the entire. Our democratic party seems to be committed to it, or at least not enough
and not opposing it, or were warp warp supporting the progressive prosecutors, who are now coming under attack rather than running away from them. I mean Indeed, they call will be one to watch this summer to see as a right harbinger about you know, I'm I'm constantly harking back to the nineteen seventies and the parallel to the present. But this is a real democrats. Being soft on crime was the correct, a night at destroying people. Don't people don't remember. I mean a lot of people in this room, cause you're old. Like me, you remember, but you know people don't remember how central an issue crime was, and they don't remember that the argument was was, politicians were soft on crime. Politicians and the people that they installed as judges and as prosecutors and whatever that they were. soft on crime, and it was almost inarguable because
they were worked on crime and right now, it's just feel so similar. It feels weirdly similar, and it also feels similar in the sense that It was not a major issue in the press until but it was a cultural issue right. It was like the press, didn't do it, but death wish was made. You know the press didn't do but our jokes on sitcoms in the nineteen seventies and enforced by the way, worth watching in the same way sick. as Norman Lear, very progressive leftist producer of sitcoms in the nineteen seventies. But if you watch the sitcoms in the nineteen seventies, half the jokes were about how expensive food was at the supermarket or how how expensive it was to fill up your gas tank or something like that. That was a that was a real thing. That was a populist message and Democrats have nothing to say about it and it turned out Republicans at the time Dead and Reagan unified this message right about weakness at home and weakness abroad, and it was a
which thing that we're not having a national election in twenty twenty two and that sounds cause there's not going to be a president on the ballot, but It's bizarre because the the democratic camp east in the seventies Democratic Party was split, the Democratic Party was a party. There was an urban part. He urban Democrats were right way they weren't left wing. Then they right wingers, they were white working class people who are being threatened in their homes and on their streets and stuff like that, and you had politicians like Ed Koch, who was a local New York City, congressman who moved to the right to win and what the mayoralty of New York. Running a somebody who said enough of this already like at came out of nowhere, and you have very few Democrats doing that yet, but I don't think we're not going to see it so,
the republic in scrutinising. Surely you know we're going to your last question? Will they screwed up I've been crazy right? That's the obvious answer right: they screwed up by being crazy and and and nominating I mean look, I'm not I commentaries, a fiber once its we non profit. I dont endorse candidates. We don't adverse candidates were about lined with. Report, they sell the exchequer, but we say yes and that is also very, very, very not a. Why is that? but but you know it's like Ok, so you got Deva Cormac in in Pennsylvania or Doktor OZ. Right I mean day. Mccormick is a pretty good candidate and Dr Oz is a lunatic, even though he's famous, so easy to run against Dr Oz, particularly going to be easy. The sky, firemen, to run against doktor, asked harder to run against Dave Mccormick so who who were pencil and Republicans going to go for what going to do an Arizona. I don't know if there's like a serious, really good.
In Arizona but there's obviously a lunatic and Arizona, and is that so you could have that right. You could have the party and then there is this one x, x, x, issue: before we get to be Rex issue, I just say to so I agree with you the two buffers against that happening or one in the at least in the Senate, Mcconnell and is Oregon's two that basically sat out in two thousand and ten of the primaries, which is why you had some of these real characters, winning nominations that were Senate seats. We should have won that Republicans should have won the Republicans lost, and you know the national republican infrastructure stayed out of it and they're no longer staying out of it. So it's like well known, for instance, in Missouri Senate seat that Republicans should have no problem winning. If air Greitens a former governor of Missouri, is the nominee suddenly as he becomes comes into play, Claire Mccaskill had won a Senate seat in Missouri by actually her and Harry Reid. Intervening in
getting out was how they taught akin nominated so so, Mcconnell and his organs are his. His various entities are getting involved already to try to prevent right from winning the nomination, so they're getting involved the primary. So that's the Good NEWS. The second piece of good news is energy is so high interest, among Republicans, is so high because a people are so frustrated and people are so against by voters are so against Biden and and three they feel like Republicans are gonna win the majority, so they can like taste it. So they want to make it happen in that kind of environment. You get republican voters turning out who may have sat out the last two or three election and primaries in primaries right, like a lot of suburban Republicans who, like thought, the party went kind of crazy last few years, but now that part of the party months just say: white, mobs, okay and there and there there there
The crazies are not running the show anymore and there are some good candidates running and I'm going to turn out to go vote for that good candidate, and when you get that kind of massive turnout, it's not just the base that showing and the basic showing up an environment where no one else shows up. You can nominee it's a pretty naughty candidates, but a world away. The basis showing up and everyone else is showing up you can get, but no one, even though at the Republican based looks like any more like. For example, you talk about one on trade like as it is it's true, but why months are gone, they're all gone. They used to be republican, bread and butter. Now they're twenty three points, pro democratic, the republican bases, now what it looked like ten years ago, and I haven't even know if we know what the republican baseball looks like anymore So the wine moms may say they're Democrats that doesn't mean that they could be the Reagan Democrats of twenty two in the general election right. In other words, they are now. I'm with Democrats College when they haven't when they would try to make a November. If they have a non not to go forth, they they will. They it is likely that they will they will.
Go back. I mean when I can also be part of the parents and grandparents mood and right at the very least right. That's a good point right and what's interesting about Glen young king is, is I mean he was, is not only a a very capable candidate, but the Democrats only play against him was to try to turn him into something that he was a fascist and a fleece vest and he just responded that by saying no, I'm glad Youngkin yeah, and let me tell you about who I am, and you know my my background and my family and the kind of and yeah I want to lead and and like they were, throwing everything at him he's Donald Trump is this is that they tried everything and he just ran his. Let me time- and I think we are there is the potential a lot of these states to nominate candidates who can run a young and play. So I want one Again, thank everybody here for coming joint. Yes, I hope you have heard, the enthusiasm of the audience of when we come at you again
come closer to where you are geographically for another life podcast. Some point. Later in the year, you will see that it would be worth your while. But can I ask one to watch it before, because I you guys rail, against the covered. You know the covered cops like all the time on this podcast, almost daily, I come to a commentary event in South Florida. I back scarred to get into the commentary of it. I mean this is not exactly true that advertising you guys, you guys target became, but Is this your mandate? It's just a podhoretz. Might oh, okay? Alright, I'm saying I'm just saying, unlike what you want, my scar, a double mask cause can be hard to talk on the microphone with like we're at a venue and the venue had rule now I will not let it go, and I like not happy, I there times where a guess, then there are times not for a, and this was a time not for a break
because I wanted people to hear you down. I wanted them, to hear and you listen and then you also hear- and that's very important and thank you all for coming. Thank you all. For being here, listen to us, the for a Noah, Christine Jump on words, keep the candle burning the.
Transcript generated on 2022-04-08.