Welcome to the commentary magazine. Podcast today is Tuesday September. Twenty seventh, sixteen I'm John Paul it's the editor of commentary With me is always a green walled, our senior editor high Abe, John, nor when our system are minor high on our agenda and where a little tired is worse, we're up less up last night late, watching the first presidential debate between Hilary Random Clinton and Donald Roddam Trump, and my

take from it was that Trump embarrassed himself. No, take which serve interesting was less about. His proof hormones and more about not only his content, but Hilary content no tell subtle about Hilary cause. You were not so impressed by her. Now I wasn't. I thought she was robotic rehearsed. She had a lot of pre prepared singers that you could. You could see the gears turning in her head ass. She was trying to reach fur Zanger a seven and apply it ass, naturally ass she could, and it was unimpressive frankly that they landed flat and then finally, she was really focused on demographic maintenance. She was talking explicitly to them a democratic groups. Democratic voters who have been frustratingly of was not speedy to join her campaign to support her campaign to she was talking about trying to put the gene.

Back in the bottle with regard to characterize and Donald Trump, is not your father's Republican saying that this is trumped up trickled down economics and other arable land. Awful lies, honourable, and an attempt is too to a bare naked attempt to get Democrats to jump on board sort of a real hearkening back to Bush era. Democratic policy, so Donald Trump performance was awful in spite of the fact that Hillary Clinton wasn't good. Now has a will you not so interesting about is that it turns out that she was the one that only had to clear the low bar to win. We had thought an advance at all he had to do, was not not be crazy. In fact, all she had to do was was just serve, speak fact and clear sentence: ok, and then it disagree with both of you. First of all, I think everybody thought that he did pretty well in the first fifteen minutes he was controlled and contain that he was focused on a very potent message, which is that

we ve had the reins of power. People like you of how the reins of power for thirty years Hilary done nothing. That country has gone down the tank on down the sewers since people like you have had the reins, and now you need a deal maker like me to fix what you broke and to get us back on track, and it was reasonably focused and a good message and she was on the defensive at the beginning, and then he went off the rails and as he off the rails. She got on the rails and she cornered him time and again into making blunders and mistakes that are going to dog him from now. Until November. She effectively got him to say proudly that he did not pay federal income taxes. She got him, who say that it was good business,

to be rooting for a housing melt down that lost five million people their homes. The kind of thing that Republicans dreaded Obama could do in twenty twelve to Mitt Romney and there quite dead, although his ad campaign did Hillary Clinton did Trump last night now were her one liners bad, yet was her bar low. I dont think that her boy- Where was that low because he was trying to go to her and goat her interrupt her, throw her off her pace. He interrupted her fifty seventeen Someone like that and instead she goaded him and by the last twenty minutes, he was just a shambling mess of a wreck. I mean it was astonishing, to watch him but you're better than that's what I think I mean an hour and a half is a long time to talk without recourse to facts. Eventually, you're gonna starts

sir gluing words together that have no business being the same sense and that's what he did. I think he's more hurt by that just by by having had to have spoken that law without really knowing much, but then then by the nasty stuff that that she pulled out of him as we already know the nasty. Oh, you know the nasty stuff. You know the nasty stuff you watch this gradually. You know that there has been an issue about releasing as tax returns and what my beyond it ex returns and whether his father gave him a one million dollar. Loner gave him fourteen million dollars this stuff that you know a hundred million people were watching last night. Now the fact is people know promptly, as they know who Hilary, as it were, to incredibly famous people running for president about whom people already happening solid opinions, but that a lot of that details that she went at last night will come as news to a lot of people who were watching if policy matters. I think you're absolutely right. I'm not

entirely. That's policy, nothing that I said there has do with policy his not paying taxes is not. Policy is policy. That's a character. Bali he's not. Taxes, his rooting for housing meltdown a policy and then, when she went at him at the very end, on his view, on women and She mentioned The beauty pageant contest winner, Alyssa Machado. He went nuts and stem and started serve yelling over her rattle. The men this morning he basically just cost himself another two days. Created new today new story about how she got fat, and that was really bad and affirming the pointed essentially that he was may she was making at the end of the year and suggesting an ant that melt down didn't occur at the very end, necessarily egg. He started saying nonsensical things with them,

first half our room at some some somewhere today, Hillary Clinton got up with the steely resolved to go meet ISIS on the battlefield, as she's been doing her entire adult life for allegedly according to Donald Trump said that you have outlined in rice as your entire life with religious leaders said something pop into his head, and I will agree with you, John than I think he did good and that first fifteen minutes in so far as people were listening to what he was saying about watching him. If you watched him, you saw body language that I thought was dominating. I thought he was very domineering interrupt are frequently he leaned into her. He was doing the sniffily thing. He was not being a debate or who respected his opponent, and I think that that for voters who are undecided this point that sort of stuff matters you know I actually disagree. I think what a trump, but what appeal Trump has the whole point of Trump is to win is to conquer, is too is to control.

You can. You can do it ugly. He can do it revolting Lee and that's that still his without that's his appeal that resonated you when you already be a trumpeter Because if here's the thing, if what would it look like at the beginning, I think was that it was. It was all in his turn, He was talking, she was answering him. He was pushing her. She was fighting back. He kept saying what would you? Do what have you helped? Your husband pass. Nafta Nafta was a disaster. You refer, you said you for trade, for the tv he deal now. You say you're not, she said well, that's not occur, which is a lie, and then he said you called it. The gold standard, which was the truth, oh, she was not. I dont think I mean unless she was. She was not like on honour heels now on our heels, but it was the he controlled. The turf, which is he wants to do and even though the almost entire debate was about him, which is

ordinarily, I think good in this context, because it means the elections about him and not about nonetheless, when the tide began to turn it was ok. Let's hear another answer: that's gonna embarrass you! When you're asked about cyber security, you start blather ring about your ten year old, being good, computers. Let's start talk, you know, and defending Putin again defending Putin, who has a, I believe, you're. The one who pointed out to me has a six percent approval rating in the United Dayton Trump took two minutes less I say out of there was Putin. Therefore, was China could have been tried- it could be a full, been a four hundred pound Dianas on his bed, who has the Democratic National Committee, which is nonsense since the B. I says it is reasonably sure that the Russians

the DMZ in the Senate and House Contingents Committee ranking members both right and put out a statement to that effect. I think that teepee peeping really perfectly illustrates my point in so far as he had the facts with him. Hillary Clinton was on her heel. She did call it the gold standard than her book. She did back off from it only because her constituency on the left said that she should he had her there, and yet he did it in this, a very plotting him fisted domineering fashion and which I feel like his style. Is what translated more than what he was saying. He wasn't letting this backs fixed tax speak for himself at them, without easy with his body for a visa. I am the facts, can't speak for themselves in terms case, because if you oh, what he's talking about my think. We knew most of what it was he was talking about. You still had trouble assembling this kind of throwing out of terms that you ve never hurt that a lot of people have never heard before into a into a kind of

time. Wine, like he starts Egg NAFTA's bed. BP. You didn't like this. You like that I give Ford, is going here, China, and this Amber and you're like liniment. What the hell is he talking about if you're in ordinary per You don't even remember what laughter is now granted, so He's, though- and he I think he made it clear in its first answer here- a very focused on the idea that maybe he can win Ohio in Michigan and Pennsylvania, and he said Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania and so oh, he knows that a lot of you now. Basically his vote, this or white male vote in those states probably were members. What NAFTA is a nose with teepee p is, but a hundred million people watching, if you did Paul right now and said to America, can you tell me what tp is you know they would start singing get down without p p. I mean where I don't know what I do know what they would say. It's not a term that baby. Five percent of the american people as an

an aggregate, know what trade from a to know what the PPP deal. What if he means and then what the deal is and then what the controversy is. So I don't think he help himself she's very didactic ass. She slows down and she starts explaining, and you start your, but your eyes are willing your because she's so boring, but at least she tries to serve put things in some kind of a coherent. Narrative and as she did, I think, I have to say quite masterfully when she went after him on his taxes. She said there are three reasons why he might not be releasing his taxes, as everyone does one is that he is not as rich as he says he is, and the second that he is not as charitable as he thinks he is, and the third is that he doesn't pay. Federal taxes

and those are the only three reasons he wouldn't release them, and then he tried to trump per by saying He would release as taxes when she releases the thirty three thousand destroyed emails, which fell flat because it was sequitur and then, when he had the moment, the chance to take her down on the emails, when Esther Hold asked about cyber security and she said we have put Putin in this and that in the EU, the ah this place for Trump to go was to say cybersex, you want to talk about cyber security, you put this nation security risk by taking your emails and bring when your house- and you say, you're sorry now that that's what didn't know in two thousand and nine that that was a problem. Of course, you know, and you did it, because you are trying to protect yourself, because you wanted to do phone baloney deals with the Clinton foundations that might like it was that it was a law that was pitch right down the middle and

he didn't go there because he got baron had it because it was an hour in and he was too aired and he didn't prepare and he's lazy and vain and arrogant and thought he could just wing at the way he wings everything and so shouldn't. We pause for a moment here. Recall the we ve sat around this table many times saying how Trump and had been saying, wait till the debates that's when he's gonna bring its her he's going to driver and she's. Never faced someone who's, gonna who's gonna take her head on like that before and whatever else you think about last night. He didn't accomplish that. He could not only not only that, but you could think of any other person any one of the top five in the republican field. Besides him what could have laid her out on the floor on the cyber security question B, O crews Bush K sick, I don't care who it was. It was sitting there, look well yesterday,

for. I am sorry to interrupt you. What yesterday, in a kind of performance, art thing on Twitter, J hungarian, and I ended up in this weird thing where I was really went round, and I said I was playing Trump and he play Hilary and the whole thing was that every time Hilary said, the reason that the Bob Bob I asked I would then say you just gotta, kill the bastards just kill him. And then she said Bob one that I'd say want to kill him. You want to let a man, you wanna, let more you let him in the first place and you wanna let more of them in Hilary just like TAT, and I bring this

only to say that I was just sitting at my keyboard on Twitter and I turned in a better debate performance as Trump than Trump turn them, and it's not like. I had sat around for three months preparing for the debate. I want to say this to get what why Abe said that so many of these Trump supporters said that they believed tat. He would take it to Hillary Clinton in a way that no other Republican can they weren't talking about policy and they weren't. Even talking about Africa like you, like, you have mentioned that he would just really stick with it: the tough guy routine when it comes.

Militarism. What they thought he would do was really dig into her in a way that talk, radio hosts dig into her, they thought he was going to bring rush Limbaugh ACT to the debate stage. And, finally, these cow Republicans, with their nonsensical ideals of comedy and relationships in the Senate, would show how you really defend a straight Clinton and that's by going after them. Personally, with Bill Clinton's behaviour risen and shaming her for standing by her man in the ninety, nine, these etc so forth. In the spin room afterwards, he actually said which I don't believe that he was going to tack Hillary Clinton for having a husband who cheated on her. Whenever that, whoever I don T quite understand the thought process there as to how that would renowned has benefit, but he said he would have done that, but only he did he deferred only because Chelsea Clinton was in the audience and didn't Nobody on the debate stage. He had that bizarre level

he said. Look over there the millions of dollars spent on needs very nasty, you're being very mean very nasty. By the way. Most of these commercials, at a very mean and very nasty, aren't focus on quotes from him running footage of him saying examined. I've seen them all over the place very nasty, and you know I was thinking about doing sigh was gonna, be as nasty you know, but then I I did so. There were some kind of implied threat, add, or he was praising himself for his self esteem, but of course, since you didn't know what the hell he was talking about again, that was part of the like last fifteen minute. Down, and you know people said the thing about those republican debates is the last eight that he had when he walked away. There were laughing ten or nine of them left right so even ere, he spoke for a maximum of eleven or twelve minutes. He did

well for eleven or twelve minutes, and but we now learned is that he doesn't have the stamina for ninety and the thing about last night. As you know, a lot of debates, people get bored, and they and they they they watch for twenty minutes have run. They turn up at last night with such a spectacle, and you were waiting for things to explode stayed watching and so that these they got the full meltdown in a way That would mean again by the way. None of this just we're doing. Simply in terms of performance and the early snap holes and things suggested that she won pretty. You know convincingly recently the poles are going to move. It doesn't mean that it's going to change anything without that we don't know we're not. I don't think we're in any position saying that you know really helped herself, or he really hurt himself. We don't know and that's we shouldn't, I'll, be modest enough to know that we that this ability to prognosticate, where the selection is going is very difficult. I think that what killed him last night and what was so harmful to him was

that things will linger. The tax thing will linger, She he said basically that he was proud that he didn't pay federal tax he said that it was good business to be rooting for housing, melted. She didn't say it. He said it and, in that sense,. That's material for more commercials. It stuff- that's gonna, be brought up in the second debate to see if he can answer what he was saying in the first, it keeps the tax returns. Sure- which is very boring when you think about just- I know, like liberals- to say, whereas tax it reads out, but nope, nobody knows what that means, but if she gets a cross of in there now is a serious effort to get across to undecided. Voters and the democratic base. That's where it's gonna matter and them Craigslist by saying he's here eating that you're paying you know who are staying there, paying twenty percent of Europe.

Your income in taxes and he's not- and you are her argument- is that between twelve argument, its unpatriotic tonight a your affairs right and that, finally, when Romney's real tax returns came out internet, it was paying twenty was paying a marginal tax. Ray of other was twenty three percent or someone like that they gave away for ten million dollars a year to charity. So, but what are we going? I know we already know that the term foundation is a is basically a scam, and that I'm sure he doesn't. Money, the charity and that likely He pays very little in federal income taxes and again yeah rich people everybody does what they can to reduce your federal income tax burden, but not if you, walk round, saying I'm worth billions and billions of dollars. You can't say one and then say it's ok for me not to be contributing to the up the upkeep

the national defence. You now that the scandal there, if there is a scandal, is that, according to lower our Washington Post reporter forget a first name, Environed David Byrne holds a reporting. Is that he's been fondling some of his income from events into they foundation, notably a five figure sum from communism? offer eyes being roasted by them and then not seven figure sum from a shabby ticket broker. Guy ripe who see You have given the foundation one point: nine million dollars for no evident reason and living and account for why, whether or not they pay taxes on that, and that would be a crime, That would be the scandal. It's only crime. According to what I read, it's only a crime if he was, if he did it knowingly and didn't I now what the law was and found hold

I'm out this kind of clown try begin lawyer, Boris Epstein, who is a ridiculous person and is one of Trump surrogates who pretend Did to be attacks lawyer to fair and hold and said you done this when he's done that and he's done the other thing and then frown hold several. What about the comedy central money and he's like okay? Well, that they're there yeah he didn't do that pay taxes, but he didn't then prove that term pay taxes. Anyway, apparently Trump were to acknowledge it said, something like I paid taxes on all of this which she could say because this tax returns are his tax returns. Are you know confidential, like all of our tax returns? That's why he cannot release them. You cannot requirement they're your tax returns. If he said he pay taxes and he didn't the Irish than has a criminal case against him. Another

it can say: well, he knowingly he knew we should have paid taxes and he didn't so. They could then just look up and see if you pay taxes on this money and if you didn't, they have a criminal case system. So he's like walking now a very, very tricky path, but this is why I, I think it's an open myself out here and I think it is acceptable to to predict that Hillary Clinton will get a modest month in the polls. Third, it's been awhile election season, but not entirely. You predicted that you can predict that Wind Donald Trump, which won the nomination and defeated all his opponents he would get above in the polls he did when he. Finally one did the nomination of the convention. He would get up in the polls and he did if the stuff resonance with Democrats, Hillary Clinton will get up in the polls because democratic will rally to her side. We have. We have surveys that suggests the public isn't really all interested in his tax returns, even though,

That's really are so if this resonates and it resonates with the left and she unifies her party base behind Her- why wouldn't she get a bump in the polls? I think that's. The most important element of this which we should watch is- and this is where there's a Spring- twenty and twelve parallel. Okay, so Romney lost, but he did have this incredibly convincing. When, in the first debate and every we all sitting of this table and Republicans you know, conserves Republicans across the country now that it was incredibly heartening to them then Romney, one that debate, no one really the they liked it. They didn't like and they thought well. They didn't think well of him. They had problems with them, but then suddenly he looked like. A leader he looked like somebody who could see who could take Obama Toto with Obama and and and and best him, and there was a great sense of relief. In conservative circles and Republicans circles and

if one the had it from me I've, never had that debate Obama, one by four points that he rallied unenthusiastic voters, but that famously that famous thing, about how Romney had all these missing voters might actually have been true Robin ended up with a million more voters than became had had in two thousand and eight, and that debate was very important if Democrats feel reassured by Hilary performance and they are made more comfortable with her for taking it to and for saying by the way this by by reciting. This litany of left this economic pap at the top of the you know about what she all the gloody she's gonna give them, including profit sharing. That was my favorite? There must be profit sharing, which apparently is a, Bernie Sanders theme. You know, that's

mean a lot for her because we said in the last cast she's oh willing. I mean even ass, all the pole, surging of Trump Thoat somberly surging. He did, but you know her fading in every like that she's still up in the pole, aggregate by two points So she came into the debate willing and if she wins the debate and democratic happier with her some of that vote, that seems to have faded away and gone in some of these poles weirdly enough to Gary Johnson will revert to her, and in that sense it is very important as it was. Romilly. He needed to more debates to get more people to come to his side, but this can be end. He didn't get them all and and also in Romney's case, you knew Obama was gonna bone up and and do his best next time round. Four Hilary. Now There is really no indication that trumps gonna gonna come armed with with facts

outside the chaplet version I was gonna, do is gonna, come armed with facts, or is he gonna? You know come armed with a chip on his shoulder. Well, it's not just that it's also. The next debate is a town hall and though, if you remember, the town hall between Romney and Obama got extremely contentious and weirdly physical, where they were served, circling each other like buzzwords or

They always do that. There's always some sort of a of some countries. They said sometimes they down, but it was very weird. Physically he's gotta watch it because if he looks like I, I don't care what you say: women men everything's changed all of that. If he looks like he's moving and on her physically, that's not gonna. We're down well turban it. But it's also it's not that easy in setting like that, either filibuster, or to get nasty to get really nasty because there's an audience there in the rue there's there's a there's, an intimate audience and the room will chill if he it's one thing for him to speech or crowd of thousands. If there are a hundred and fifty people in the room of voluntary selective in all of that- and he starts in on her and interrupting her in everything that the chill in the room will be felt through the tv he's.

Allowed. Tunnels, though, is pretty good in that format. How many town halls Z done during the primary that ten new there? He did it like a couple on CNN Yolanda diversities. You buy a plural fox, did three or four and remember he did them with Sean happy. So that's like always also end with an was submitted in around no but seated, with Shun Hannity and with a self with a pre selected friendly audience. I mean so that's part of them. Some people are saying that the problem with Trump is that he just spent three months, never getting a tough question and he got some tough questions. Last night- and you know I don't- Care- was a lot of people, including friends of mine, whining last night. The lesser hold was too hard on him. That's insane so what'd Lester hold asked me, asked him at birth tourism, and he at any asked him about

the Iraq war, those were the two facts checks and what what's wrong? With that? I mean by the way you know. If we don't stop talking about this, who said what, at the beginning of the Iraq war, my head is going to explode. I mean the great sadness last night is that he's Belgium, Howard Stern and nobody shouted out Bob I mean that's really what should happen It is also another point around the Iraq war. Another point at which any other republican primary candidate could have could have taken very sick the great apparent that right and then and then she looked George, Ministration created a vacuum and police by the way they left Iraq. There was. It was bad too, to go in, but the way we work became out was irresponsible and credit terms that right

and then she said, look George W Bush Oh shit, the status of forces agreement. There is nothing that that prison Obama has done. That was we had to get out. We had to get up minimal reading. You know he could said, bomb in Leon accordingly on Banana Obama, wanted to get out of there much more than the Iraqis themselves did they were. There was moved and goes you, but he he's doesn't red. He doesn't need us where we now thousands of troops in Iraq today without status of forcing right right out. I don't have anything, but she could shut him down on us the right now you have said here. We go. Loud and now we're back in and we're back in and much much more unsafe circumstances and our troops are grow more risk than they were in twenty eleven, and that's all because of your failure. That's what I mean we're sitting here. I know it's like you know. It's like this

rediscover eight times a million to sit as an arm chair person and say he could have said this. They could have said that we could have said the other thing. However, these are obvious things that he could have seven. Instead, he what goes off on these its understand. What's hard you, if you over, prepare that's bad, but you know if you go off on these, like blathers Skype tangents, you know you, you harm your own case in and what's more, you know, Trump as Noah has said repeatedly despair Some little bits, appalling data to suggest that this is a done deal. Trump also has to solidify the Republican based just like Hilary needs to solidify the democratic base

there's a Poland which is that ninety percent of the Republicans, but there are three or four other poles and have him still in the eighties and remember there are way fewer republicans than there are democrats, their way fewer self described Republicans, and there are Democrats if Hilary has eighty seven percent of democratic,

Then he is eighty percent republicans. She has more voters on her side than he does. Democrats outnumber republicans by four five percent, at least so he needs the kind of I don't like the way you're talking about this, and I don't like you're trashing arm yelled, the Bush family, or I don't like the way you approach this. The vit one interesting detail from yesterday as the Trump released a list of Bush administration veterans that are supporting him interesting enough. Alighting, the first Bush administration H w with the second twelve years there

for of service that could have involved. There were fifty one people on that list. Two or three cabinet officials Ashcroft him Rumsfeld. In particular, I know hundreds of people who worked- I were I wrote to Bush to, but what about the Bush administration? One one about the Bush administration to. I know hundreds of people. Who work for the Bush administration, thousands of political appointments and both administrations. He has a list of fifty one Republicans were supporting him that work for Bush. That is astounding. Hillary Clinton has every single person who ever who ever worked in a democratic administration on her side. She she couldn't issue such elite. The only question you would have as who would be the fifty one people out of the tenth doesn't, or so I'm at on the list and he could only Gorner fifty one. That's a mark of a base weakness in his own party. That's like people like us, maybe

but like people who have an Idiot views like ours- and you now worked in the matter security apparatus are people like worked for the thousand points of light, aids were like the more moderate elements of the Republican Party Now- and he doesn't have them and he needs- and that's the thirty thousand foot perspective you get down to the ground level in places like Ohio, where, if it's a five point, race he's gonna win. But if it's a three point race, he needs a party there to turn out as voters and Party just hate him. They, despite unify point raised in which he is solidly holler lifelong learning. But if it's a three point razor less, he need to turn operation, and that John K, six Ohio Republican Party does not support Donald Trump. They made a very explicitly clear. They were attacking him on the eve of the canoe John case. It will not be endorsing him. The Ohio Party chairman was tat. Attacking him for saying the junk is. It was an embarrassment to the State

Look Pennsylvania's very good example. Also, so there's the shock pulling that shows the media very close to Tide in Pennsylvania, pencil the rural areas and the polling, maybe capturing, allow those people they have to be dragged to the poles like they. That's you need a turn out operation. They have to be well from. We know the area around Philadelphia, five hundred thousand votes. It starts there. He is strong in the rural areas and the polling may be capturing, allow those people they have to be dragged to the poles like day. That's why you need a turn out operation. They have to be reminded, and yet this is the other thing about that. His demographic that is important to point out, which is so there more than likely to be vote, people who don't vote all the time right. I mean they're sort of unlikely voters, which is why they are,

The model is hard to pull about them. It's hard to figure out how many there are going to be, but the one thing you know about somebody who is not a likely voter is they don't know where the polling places because they don't go to it? They don't know you know they don't know what time the poles open clothes. They may not even know when election day is going to be registered. Well, let's assume, let's even soon that they are registered and we're talking about now. These are those who are now showing up unlikely voters screens but worked it out which always favour Republicans so that, as they do likely, voter numbers the numbers tightened, but that those of likely voter screens must now involve people who would not ordinarily be in a likely voter scream, which is usually have voted before. Whom did you vote for? How many times have you voted before if we have unlikely loading and if we even have this kind of like depressed voter voting, if you dont have people a say, hey come on out. You know it's did ninety two,

find nine or six to nine its at its at the it's, the first presbyterian church. You know, here's how you fill out a ballot, that's what these machines do and they don't exist Trump. Doesn't have them where these races are close? He is not here unless there is a wave- and he really is at the head of a movement that has got to produce things and Herbert Vote is very depressed. State like Colorado, where he is now serve charging again, whose gonna make sure that his voters turn out. Well, he seems to think if he yelled out NAFTA and tp- that's that's what'll deliver them, while it may, under the convention if you did that, plus someone saying, as the Obama campaign did, with its unenthusiastic waters and twenty twelve, hey. I know you know, maybe you don't want to vote, but you know we have a party come on. We have a bus,

bus waiting outside the apartment, building, we're going to take you there, you know, and afterwards we're going to take you to the party. It's going to be You know they did this like across the country, less use of the development of culture as a right of a following its own costs? There was an idea that you couldn't do it at the presidential level, because it was just too costly to do this kind of national get out the vote from a or it's, not national. They were doing in twelve states you know from a presidential perch, but when you can raise a billion dollars, as you know, and Hilary is gonna get to a billion dollars and Obama got two billion dollars yeah you can, it turns out and he's right two hundred million dollars less than she so far and isn't spending a proper thing and is Outsourcing sourcing get out the vote drive to the currency in other places that don't do it.

RO level and have a different methodology for doing it, really gin up more in the off years than during the presidential ears. Anyway, look all this could be wrong. This is all speculative but fact. That matter is if she Jim. If she gets her vote up. If she gets her solidifies, her basin gets people more enthusiastic about. Its game over she's already in the lead yeah, I'm just thinking about the damn ballots on that entirely sure whether or not the because the Trump campaign is sort of outsourcing. Third year tv efforts to the party committees, the GEO Tvs get out the right of a national committees, senatorial and house committees and the republican side, and also the damn ballot candidates on the on the Senate. Oral slate like to mean in Pennsylvania December to me right for war or highly Rob portmanteau

so I could argument is his tallies a little bit. I'm I'm I'm just curious as to whether or not these future debates are going to have an effect. It is there. I am pretty sure, as I said earlier, that they're gonna have an effect on the democratic base. Are gonna enliven the democratic basis they gonna show? Hillary Clinton is playing to win, but what we saw last night was where Donald Trump got really flustered and in his head and aggressive in word, salary was when they were attacking the myth that he's made for himself the myth that he opposed the Iraq war than the myth about the birth or resume the idea that heeds

sort of gave up on birth tourism and twenty eleven trying to convince the public. The last five years were affection of their a figment of their own imaginations. That's where he got really frustrated in an aggressive and angry and looked back, but does that really do anything to the republican base, the basis of his support? And I don't think so, I'm you could make an absolute ass of himself and I don't think it would really matter for on board. I think of ethical matters to the extent that, if he's, if he's, as I said before, his the whole point of him- is to conquer and dominate and if he's in view not doing that never the details. I think I think it we can support. Look what did he say at the end? He said I have a great temperament. She does not have the right temperament. I have a winning temperament, so against speculate with me. So if does not well in the next two debates. Will. What is the next topic? Remember, but there's so there's a preservation, Twentyth well yeah, so there,

there's there's the vice presidential bade on October, the force which will be some annex, which will be a new now. Ninety minute add for salmon exits. You now you know Babbitt versus the Sandinistas. I don't know I mean it's would be the most boring thing. I've ever seen, the spanish speaking Sandinistas altar boy versus the evangelical Babbitt's. Pop NEO populist and then there are two more debates and lets say that he doesn't do well in either those debates and she her led, holds. Who's going to start getting depressed about voting at the end of October, who's going to start thinking and if he doesn't feel like a winner, if he doesn't feel like a winner. Remember we went into the last weekend

people. Far Rami could still wit, not just could still win. The national Paul was tied. We were, we were so around. This office was certainly fifty fifty than it could be Romney or Obama out the staples weren't so good, but the other. As two poles have Romney ahead, show galloping washing per se She had Romney had what, if no poles say that Trump is winning in the last week and what if the electoral pulsated he's down you know, is down three hundred three hundred and five to what happens then to his men, and here is where his core message that the system is rigged. Can we against him. If he's saying it's rigged, its rigged its rate- and this will then what's were sunk, we're done for already it's not there's! No, there's! No look. We can do this. We ve gotta, we ve got out, you know, bear down, get together, it's tough! I we can do it right

it's right, look. The poles are red debates rate. It's all right forget its closure very defeatist theme and if more people watch these debates in her watch debates before the argument that his he's slipping because of extra because of you know Marion that moves behind the scenes is gonna. Art seeming a little crazy, because everyone's gonna know the judgments are being made based on mass. Then. So that's why you're already seeing him pull this stuff, out of his had about how somebody screwed with the MIKE, so that we could hear him sniffling- and you know in Leicester, hold first, he said, Lester held, did a good job now I gathered this morning he starting to move as he talks to more and more fox hosts. On the phone sitting in his bed, getting angry or an angry or about how their fat beauty queens and his MIKE was rigged.

By the end of the day, he's gonna start talking about the gold star parents again and again, and all that all he quite clearly didn't read. The orange sees Emil's because I woke up to an email from the orange see noting how many questions lest her whole didn't ask Hillary Clinton and why that was very suspect. Yeah, so he's not getting the memo. I don't think I have it on this occasion. I was watching him. I always thought it was weird. I thought the old was kind of helping them. An odd way. This is where the because The debate was all about him like. Why wasn't he? Turning to Hilary and saying MRS Clinton? Isis you day you, your administration did Ex wines IE and ISIS about. What's your answer and then he would have to answer the question at least then she would he talked, I think, for Food team more minutes than she did last night. It was, it was pretty close, it was thus it yeah. They were

in the forties a worthy, I'm sorry, but there was some something else. It was something about how you know that subject of conversation was seventy percent him a thirty percent her and while that hurt, you didn't have to hurt him. If he had done better, it would have helped him he's. The recent went badly. He could just as easily have thrown her even tough questions that she was prepared or an then then the turf could have been on her turf. So, oddly enough, why they like it's not Air Lester Hold asked me too many questions as opposed will wise and lest her hold badgering, what wise wisest or hold focusing the debate on Trump.

Hillary Clinton in the lead she's. The one who should have to answer the preponderance of the questions and also judges to as little evidenced, is to support your case earlier that she didn't. She did a decent job, we're good job. When he was off the rails. She would she got nowhere near him. She led him very himself. She didn't jump in dispute, anything she just she let those those three that stream of consciousness just sneer out yet they're dead, panted, Amre, India and look again. We don't know, we know what the story is. What we do know issues very disciplined. That's that's the one thing that we now and that the main thing that could have killed her witches coughing she didn't do and then there was some kind of weird Jiu Jitsu effect where he was sniffling the entire time, and then this morning he said he said the fox. I don't know why. I'm like I'm obsessing over this folk. Is it just crack me up? You was like there was no sniffles, there was no sniffles, I mean he speaks.

Wish like Earth Colleen early problem. There was no, Therefore, Mr Tromp, I mean who's that there was no sniffles one It's a bit of. It was like the sheer asylum lie. What was said not a very not very nice to police jug was very, very hands, not a very anti pulley somebody to sense something yeah having grammatically incorrect. There was like what that's a very modest when he does in this. Is that weird tick of his is that he drops words. I think in order to sound like he he's these Jargonelle, like he's up on on on the actual like inside the business lingo. So when he says we ve talked about cyber war varies a cyber when he talks about nuclear weapons. He just says

clear, or that was a good part by the way- and this is where I'm sorry, sir, we haven't even talked about policy, but this is where you get into the. It is outrageous that a person like this is even thinking and being present United States, so he though, he not only does he without knowing what he's doing forswear the first use of nuclear weapons which while criticising Brok Obama forever caning had to hearing of it. He forced worthy first use it with their weapons, which is which is the ground which is the foundation of U S nuclear policy and has been since nineteen forty since the Soviets develop the atomic bomb not by the way. Baby really thinks that the United States would, you know, would strike first, but you know that was a debate in the eightys. It was a debate in the nineties. There is a whole debate about how why not forswear first use no

excuse because we'll never going to do it anyway and that we can make ourselves look good to the ed, like the Irving Crystal was for was firm, changing this policy and had a big debate with my father once about whether or not there should be no first use or not so Europe has no idea what this is its nuclear policy, and not only does he say so we forswears first use. And then says that maybe we should bomb North Korea. We can regulate Invade North Korea Orange which, by the way would be first use because we would make them so in the same sentence, which means he's appalled see if he told us I mean I don't know I you know. Maybe we should be more polite, as is the republican nominee, but he is a policy idiot, but he also seventeen in the same breath. While I was sort of activating myself did that to the fact that he just said no for He also said, but you can't take anything off the table. She

to take everything. That was the other thing she always wants to. I need surprise she always wants to take everything off the table. I mean the point: is that he's got four different voices in his ear does not assume throw. So someone says you can use this say wanna, be surprising, that's what Nixon said: Sixty eight say you know, you're, not gonna telegraph, your moves, because you don't wanna let the enemy. Now Somebody else says you now say that she's preemptively, removing you know, Quill weighed up from the american quiver on policy and then somebody else said something else and something and then and then he kind of puts it altogether Because he doesn't know that these pieces of advice might be contradictory, to have something to say his. What did he say about NATO? Member that I haven't thought much about two beyond I haven't thought much about NATO either with God presently the United States. We haven't talked much about NATO most sing

military alliance- you now practically in world history, so he walked into a buzz, saw their gazelle. You haven't thought about much about NATO. Well, let me tell you Hilary said: there's this thing called article five one and article five: is it's the common then you know the only time that it was evoked after nine eleven by our allies to defend us now, if you aren't undecided voter and your actually paying attention than your listening to what is being said, that was like MIKE drop disk He doesn't know what the hell he's talking about. But when I was a lie, he has thought about NATO used and spent quite a bit of his time on this done talking about NATO and how it's an obsolete, defunct organization for which we couldn't. We shouldn't respond to our allies. In the event that their attacked by Russia very explicitly have not had any word. Under the now said, we don't get any money from Japan to defend them on to defend, to defend them, nuclear arms around guess how much money

Yet from Japan, two billion dollars a year, we get essentially s her payment for defence before them, not for us defending put it nuclear shield on them two billion dollars, so we just make stuff up and he doesn't know what the hell he's talking about great. You know. We really do we should like take money from Lithuania in order to you. Now, Then, with the one that was the best one where it when he contended that Estonia and particular shouldn't, we shouldn't respond in the event that they invoke article five after they were attacked by Russia, put the lie to his hour. You meant that we should be extorting our allies out of a certain amount of money because they don't put enough money to their defence while one of the five nations and that eighteen nation alliance structure that does meet the two percent of GDP threshold that everybody

close to me is Estonia, so he singled out one of the very few nation emotional said the great Britain, one of the very few nations that actually does meet his criteria. I just happens to be one of them: nations most threatened by his great friend. What we wouldn t nation, I think most threatened the nation necrophilia one as he has already trying to swallow up and Poland. So these are the two nations that meet their defence requirements and he also says that NATO absorbs far too much of our budget. It amounts to one less than a tenth of one percent of american defence spending outlays per year to meet need is operating, but he confuses NATO's operating budget with actual defence spending, but that's a digression it. Basically, he saying that I am not going to defend anybody against Vladimir Putin and he has been very explicit in his support for Vladimir Putin's GEO political objectives of east of Europe. The Middle EAST, and he did it again last night, where he said you know all this stuff tat. We ve been talking about about Putin, who knows maybe, as a twelve year old hacker in somebody's basement. Nobody, no, maybe it's! My son is what he shed its either

four hundred pound guy on his mattress I believe actually more precisely describes his base. Then then, would the actual hacking community or his son Baron, whose really good with with computers, which is it out again, would be like the Amy Carter moment of this year, except that you know he is he is He has changed all standards for how for what ridiculous thing someone can say to rule them out of Guenaud contention as Assyria. Person a digression, but I want to get your take on and it also gives me an opportunity to plug my own stuff. It was only twenty four hour.

The goal that we were in the middle of eight absolute media milltown, complete freak out we're too close to October for Donald Trump to be doing as well as he is in the polls. So we had the freak out over the fact checking and whether or not media should be taking a much more aggressive role with on trumped because he is in it Abner malady and aberration, and antithetical too liberal democracy in that media needs to get off the referees chair and really jump out. I think lesser halted, memorable job of of rejecting that pressure. He had a lot of pressure to be a fact checker, and he did it twice and he did it twice: a very defensive. Ways. I don't think he really. He would have felt the need to jump all over Hillary Clinton. You can fighting ISIS your whole adult life if he was really about that, listen while it, while the first fifteen minutes were going on. I follow love liberals on twitter and there were people like the novelist I'll Waldman who was saying.

Lester, why are you saying there? What's the matter with you meeting just because Trump was talking? In other words like they got to the They are so convinced that Trump has no business even being on the stage that the role of the moderator is to say, shut up shop? Let us speak, what's the matter with you, how dare you interrupter or you can't- say that or something like that- and this is not this is not on serious. I mean this is a gut feeling. Every time it look like tromp was kind moving towards taking control it is, but the debate, my twitter feed was turning purple with rage that he wasn't stepping in and pushing back in her direction, and that was Paul field anxiety, resulting from a virgin

The proposed national Poles showing him doing a lot better than everybody thought he would be doing at this stage and a kind of- and I wrote a post about this- that where was all this frustration nine months ago, if this guy is such an aberration, if he's such a threat to everything America holds dear, where were you in January, when he was at the top of the hill, We can pull saying exactly the same things he sang today more where you're not to want to make this to personal, but I recall that in February I went I spent three successive successive Monday mornings on morning, Joe and it was me alone with Joe and Mika, and they were- and I was saying Trump is a of this- is that this is a terrible sign for democracy is becoming the nominee blah blah and they were like blah calmed. Are you ok? I mean you seem to be to be worried about you pressure, ah everybody's, going right right. So then- and that was through three three in a row and then

Joan Scarborough is saying in all. This is the greatest threat towards democracy. Ever data that is now I see, yesterday and then this morning, Mika Brzezinski, Is- is sitting there in a condition of pitch terror, that said, worried tromp has some magical, formulates, gonna win and Hilary is not going to make it and somebody has to stop it now. She was sitting there. They were sitting there on that set thrilled at Trump hid. Doubled their ratings talking about trumpet doubled their ratings, which is good for them and they get bonuses. And you know Oh, this is great look at him. I can turn hall in order to counter programme a GEO p event that Donald Trump was boycotting because he was having a few lessons rub. The whole point here is that they loved it, in Scarborough got his own. You know it illogical guy he's playing, but I mean

brawls loved the trump rise, even though they were like all this terrible as well was mean it. What is it tat so terrible from Arab, because they liked that the Republic and party that they saw was got was being destroyed? That's what they like a gnat. Suddenly. This is where your point is very potent. So suddenly, when they could have played a role helping some of us in derailing him, they didn't, and now they are in a state of panic and that's why I column on Friday which I said I am just- I can't help it. I love watching this. I love watching them in pain. I love watching the trumped arranged syndrome hit because they should suffer. The way I suffered? Let them have nightmares the way I had nightmares, and because we started having nightmares about this in August of twenty fifteen, the fur Really negative peace. I wrote about Trump saying this is a terrible sign for our country was July, twenty eight twenty fifteen and it went from there

and we all sat here and watch less moon does of CBS a boy trumps, really great, for business and and and Jeff Sucker say I'm not gonna, say anything about trumpets been fantastic, whereas all this online Anti Semitism coming from did anybody in September of twenty zero workers. Talking about I mean this is really a New York Times, reportable targeted by anti Semites online. Will you know now, I think, as of last night and today, from what I can see on social media. Liberals are too enthusiastic about their victor That's exactly right, and this is part of the the the bubble atmosphere- which raise it ain't over and out only pay too. We all think here than she did well in the debate. Everybody will mostly think that you do well debates you may get a pole bump and all that, but you know one bad another story about the emails that reminds people which either but the emails or

Harry, then the aware better, the weekly standard and now the washing virtues of the new post. My paper, not there is a documentary com, attacking her now. Email client is asleep in the book and he makes in. I don't trust what he says you, but who knows what the top line? You know thing that on drudge is gonna, be from a client Anti Hilary book that may start making noise and our dear friend Daniel how per hour, but formerly our internal commentary. Then the web enter the weekly standard and now the washing virtue of the new post. My paper there is a documentary coming out called Clinton. Think about. Based on his book and for all we know, there's some revelation in their they'll be some kind of little bit bits of them. We know Clinton cash. The release of Peters wages going case was the beginning, or was the two real elements that started tanking Hilary reputation. So that's all coming in

over. Who knows what you know? Who knows this could take many twists and turns and they're so eager, because they don't know anybody who drove her trunk, because they don't understand the nature of this and because what they talk themselves into his only an evil person can support trump they're. Happy that they're happy to pretend that it's all over again and two to go back. Twenty twelve parallel, like conservatives who watch the first Romney debate, they are so relieved to have had this and to set all ok things or say now we're good we're fine. That was a big scare, but but you know the world has seen reality now. Remember. The big difference again mounted now argue against. My The big difference between now and then is that Romney was down by five then, and Hilary is up by two so Rami was down the debate, helped him there is up, and the debate helps her. So if Hilary up even modestly and the debate, help sir

it's a way stronger position, two p m, then being down so and by the way she still up even the electoral College, despite the fact that Trump is moving on her she's fading. So that's where we Our that's organ, and even I mean I'd. We went on way too long because it's too so exciting to yourselves talk. So I hope you find the same here. Ass Tom Commentary magazine seventy one year old, monthly, intellectual probity, stunning incites one hopes, arguing from the top of the of our intelligence, about everything that is going on in the world, both culturally, intellectually, politically, socially spiritually, with fiction and poetry and book reviews and essays of uncommon in sight. We hope, joined our conversation, we have daily wonderful, daily blog items from now I Jonathan Tobin and others.

Commentary magazine dot com, you get a couple of free reads and then we ask you to subscribe: one thousand nine hundred and ninety five for a digital subscription in twenty nine and two thousand nine hundred and ninety five gets you all access, everything commentary, including our beautiful monthly magazine Magaziner October issue, was just out with some a wonderful piece by James Ethical is called how bad is the great american slowdown. And other notable items that also real online. So please join us and we will be back with our second podcast of the weak on Friday. I think riding real defrauded Thursday. I think we're due Thursday so that's where we are, and we will see then frayed, green, wild and Roswell. I'm John put words get some sleep.