Donald Trump's Oval Office address was a dud because he is not a persuader, and that's all such speeches are designed to do—to persuade those who can be persuaded. So what happens now that the government shutdown is really starting to bite? And what does the number 42 tell us about the future? Give a listen.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the commentary magazine pack has today use first eight January tenth twenty Eighteen happy birthday Zack. This is John Priority or coldly editor of commentary. Magazine thee Seventy five year old, monthly of intellectual analysis, political, probably in cultural criticism. From a conservative perspective, we invite you to join us a commentary magazine dot com where we give you a few free reads: ask you to support. I've? Ninety ninety five for a digital subscription twenty nine and thirty five for an all access subscription, including our beautiful monthly magazine in your mailbox eleven times a year. Christine Rosen is not with us today
but with us, as always senior editor agreed Waldheim by John Associate editor and author of the almost being published unjust from Ray Publishing nor Rossman. I know I John, so I really am sorry I am under the weather and very horses. Fifthly, so please excuse thee, problematic broadcasting. Here, so yes, Tuesday night. We saw the president speak of it. We saw its policy and structural chuck were speak and we are now in today, twenty or something of the shutdown men. The Czechs don't go out this week to federal workers and there's no money for the wall. Things seems to have chain, as a result of this each of the response. Noah yet It was my
she was. It was kind of both the speech and the response start with the president's speech was kind of that climatic and get up fur commentary magazine that combat you should read where pretty much said you know he started out with speech about it. This is a humanitarian crisis, its national disaster of theirs children en masse or being driven. You- are being misused by disreputable human traffickers at the border. There are people, Oliver America, who are being killed in gruesome fashion. Anyone into some rather spectacular detail about beheadings. Why have you were again. I this is costing national treasuries new, quite a bit of my lips, a national emergency, and yet he did do anything about it, to the extent that it was a national emergency. Didn't declare international emergency didn't say that there's anything I can do didn't take any measures to that effect. It was just sort of a positioning statement and then the cameras went off and
I can't imagine that if, unless you're really pretty near the converted here in Europe We are predisposed to agree with the president that you thought it was a convincing message. I am sure that the Mai such per se is not convincing words if the general messages we need to be more serious about border security. That's fine but there was no ask. Precisely it makes you wonder why an oval office address was called for, while the president himself, apparently on Tuesday talking to news acres in the oval office, said he what's a waste of time and he wasn't sure why he was doing it and point the bill. Shavers communications director and a couple people behind them to say that they were making him do it. Then that is bizarre. I mean I'm sorry, but you could be the biggest from fair on earth. If the guy thinks that it's a waste of time for him to be giving an oval office address so
the address it comes out is eight minutes uncommonly unconvincing, we badly photographed like an amateur like one of those things I did during the campaign like nobody sat and with a camera and made sure that it would look approach we grand, which is the purpose of the oval office, addressed to show the president's sitting at the resolute ass. The camera comes under the hammer, push end, but the pushing continued throughout the entire addressed. So by the end of the addressed, it was like a very tight shot in his face tat. It was really his arm and same thing by the way, with policy a tumor where, apparently, nobody thought to stand, do have test shot, standing that podium pro standing at the same podium and cheese. Two hundred and sixty two features: He is so either she should stand on a box or they should be separated so that the heights People don't serve, spend their whole time going with their. What does she imagined and what is he a giant that made? It was ridiculous right, so
Their staging was terrible. His stagey was terrible, Abe, yeah monolithic ginger it's a little but interesting, because there is also, I think, some degree of his trying to say. Look, I'm giving a little here in the speech itself or our I've or I'm reasonable demo. Have a problem with the concrete wall, so we're gonna go, would steal yes much There is therefore a humanitarian concerns that need to be addressed, and I want to address on the border to do with the migrants children. And so on. But you know I mean he is he he historically we'll get. Forced into doing these things that he doesn't really have his heart in or will soon have to read something on teleprompter and then eventually, he turned around and completely blows up over the stage thing was, but this was a was telling the people who are going to cover it that night that lives, speeches There was a waste of time.
Let's talk about the purpose of oval office addresses and presidential addresses in general and why they are unclear when we unsuited to trump himself. So the real speaking as a former presidential speechwriter thee I will say that the purpose of presidential speech making or speech making general, but certainly persuasion is Tuesday have an uninterrupted period of time in which you cloaked in the garb of the highest office in the lad, get to make a an argument uninterrupted in front of the american people for the purpose of convincing p. Who are otherwise yet on the fence or may disagree with you that their view that your view is sensible. Andy and should be. Should be heated and that you're, you know you're doing and you know, does not to oppose it. It is about. Persuasion. Trump is not about persuasion has to modes
he does them simultaneously. What is to boost and bolster the people who support him already in the sector, is to work to intimidate the people who do not support him. The these at this is anti persuasion. In some ways it is to say, if you don't agree with me, I'm here to scare them Jesus out of you. That's why I'm here to do I'm gonna, I'm gonna, say things that irritated annoy you and frightened you and either you're going to react by me. Cowed or even a react by be outraged, either way, I've been your head. I've got you You are on his, so if your already at his side, you go yeah yeah very goes he's great. So that's why The campaign rallies and the hour and a half long. You now cast RO addresses are what's better for him. Then then, there blocks addresses a reason he hasn't given one yet, and I don't think we're going to see him giving another one in the you know. In these four years, yeah I totally agree
and I want to add to it- something I said yesterday and blog post about this. Not only is it on characteristic of him to give a speech that, but it's sort of out of step at the moment in that No one on either side comes to these things. Right, before persuasion, they want to see a blow out, which means that not only are Democrats not receptive to being convinced terms, fans don't want him. Convinced the other side. They want to destroy the other side. That's the that's the that's the that's where the excitement is Yeah. I will say to his credit. I do think that the speech was successful in so far as it boxed in opponents, say it sort of a cliche now to say that, yes, the Democrats voted for border The Caribbean, fencing in two thousand six and Chuck humor em. They generally for that- and they said as much in that address, which I think is- is probably that
central to their political position. They said Nancy Pelosi said interaction were said that they would support a variety of border security measures, including increased this access roads along the border increase tax algerian sensing sensors along the border personnel hardening ports of entry. All this that amounts to weigh more money than four billion dollars. On top of the one point three they already approved for border security, so it their position is basically yeah me we want to deny the president a face. Saving await owed to walk back as his defeat and in time two thousand and eighteen. We don't really have any reason to give him a victory and they basically said as much. I think that really makes it demonstrates how petty and small their position it's it's so false because, if they say they want to do all these things and that they be willing to pay for all these things. But they want to maintain a certain degree of porosity at the border. You know that that that that's the sort of that that's
that's a moral line that they that they can cross it doesn't it it doesn't make sense, I mean impose seeing a moral frame on the wall is ridiculous. The pre that you don't wanna have a wall or you should have a wall. Is that its inefficient? Its foolish it's a waste of money and- and it it says, a message that you don't necessarily want to send its foolish, because you know, there's like out of water and river and stuff through it. And no one believed you build a wall that ninety two hundred miles long. Whether walls ever worked anyway. So then he says all well. You know the Israelis bill. The wall at it made a huge effort. Has that extemporaneous lay the speech said made a moral, persuade the argument to, but it was much more subtle and actually doktor when it when he said you know basically the moral framework around the wall himself. Walls are further because you hate the people on the other side is. Was you
the people inside. That's a moral argument to, and it's a pretty persuasive one, that the Democrats are smart, saying the sub text out loud when they say this is an immoral eighty right. Well, so we have two different views of immigration, and the thing is that the president's case is disingenuous, because here one a wall because for people got murdered out of three hundred and thirty million people in the country and a couple in kind of gruesome horrific is he wants wall, because he is opposed to the presence in the United States of undocumented Mexicans and South Americans Muslims and that's why you want to walk? That's why most of the people who want a wall want a wall as they don't like what they see to what they see as a creeping change in the American National character as a result of flows of population from the south and to
The extent of that case is not made its stand in the way that may because it's ugly- but you know when you were, that's also, why they call it a moral because there there look. Beyond the wall to the meaning of the wall right so so There is an argument going on here totally disingenuous on both sides, so the war all is was actually ethically I said this on the previous podcast, like the wall was the compromise position for very stream, anti immigration people in the first decade of this set of this new century. Because they thought that it was it was foolish or counterproductive to argue about deporting eleven million or twelve million people say I was you and deport them so you're going to do whatever you can make life really unpleasant for them and make sure that no more come in? Well, I believe them
problem with that argument is that for the last eleven years there has been no net increase in them. Or of illegal immigrants in the United States, which means either the lot of you we're going back and staying back and other people are coming here, everybody whose here is here at people actually aren't getting only nominal numbers people are getting in the other thing that strikes me as, amazing about this is where I'm talking now about the emergency and Trump said this morning that you know he was almost certainly going to declare an emergency, and you know, therefore he would get money from the budget for the military budget to build the wall right, So, first of all, as notices, There is no emergency, but we ve now been reading. All of us to our horror that there have been fifty eight. Cases. Since nineteen, seventy six of the presently I'd say declaring an emergency. The Obama declared for
five emergencies, all of which is a way of circumventing Congress and getting money. The allowing the executive to reinforce money inside the executive branch to do something that has actually been authorized by. Congress or doing vanity or commercial operation right Furthermore, you know with obvious ones like hurricane things and stuff like that, but then, but then there is their stuff involving on an alike aid to Ethiopia. I can remember me, there's a weird ones that you can They believe actually happen that way, but its literally away of gifts, the president, some power to reallocate monies that is better in the ok So, first of all, so declaring an emergency is not quite is amazingly shocking, a thing for him to do as one thought at first, because when I say looking this up. The first thing I thought was my God: what have we have? An emergency support must only have been nine eleven
like I guess my the level, we must have declared an emergency rights. I looked back in their fifty eight cases of emergencies include, like twelve in the last eight years or more years. Is that so like sorry, it's I am obviously many cases that aren't really emergencies or levels is right. Ok, it's an executive, tool. Another tool in which the executive branch might use to circumvent. Congress or others, wrote a peace. They say this with the only case in which Congress has been circumvent, which is ridiculous anyway. So that's none. What number two is where the emergency at the border this year come from didn't come from Trump it as this caravan that started- and it was liberals and leftist, who said we were in an emergency because we were there was there were the first, the the kids ages and then this caravan coming marching on the border from from central and South America.
Those were designed to embarrass and humiliate Trump and to do some place. Kind of political game in- The United States here then decided in some form jujitsu to take over the emergency and to take the make the emergency his own with disease, asterisk political consequences. The pollster David Winston says that the turning of the last two weeks of the mid term elections into a referendum on the caravan was the thing that tipped a a good democratic election into a blue wave himself. The data to suggest how that happened. So it was bad for him. And the question is. Why would it be good for him now? Here's why this is really perverse and why it would be good for him now because Declaring in a national emergency. Taking this out of the hands of Congress, puts this in the courts
is the emergency will be immediately stayed the action on the ground on them on will be immediately staid and it will go through the appeals process. Meanwhile, the government can reopen in what wild we work out this now this crisis in the courts, so everybody gets to declare victory, nobody's lost any face in this process and its resolves the issue satisfactorily to Democrats and Republicans cause nobody has to take any action. Wow yeah. That is so cynical. I hear his exact should any so often extremely seriously. Truths are even worse. Is that future congresses
Future administrations are almost certain to take flexibility at the hands of the military. If this is how you can utilise the military budget in order to effect domestic political priorities by emergency decree, well, one would hope. Ah, what would also hope that we would have a more? If you know in the future, we will have a more efficient and effective Congress that defends its prerogatives and vote some things and tries to support things. But you know we have a. We have an unconventional president who doesn't know or doesn't care about constitutional niceties and finds them difficult to handle and has himself through his own conduct. When he had majorities in both the House of the Senate, not dubbed the things that have made it necessary for his own party to give him the Wall Buddy that he needed. I've been I'm like a broken
on this on this podcast that Paul Ryan came to him with a plan during the transition in which a border adjustment tax, which would hit Mexico particular Molly would got covered to place, would re sixty billion dollars, of which twenty five billion to go for the wall, and he could them successfully claim that Mexico has pay for the wall had trouble. No, I mean he was given a plan. To do exactly what he wanted. He said, no, honestly and in that just one example, and I was probably the last time that Republicans really handed down from the wall where I was trying to go through this yesterday, just cycling through old news. Worries about all the times that it was the Republican Party that blocked these efforts for the war, and it began in February twenty seventeen and continued.
On for the next two years- and there are tons of great quotes from people like John Cournand and Lindsey Gram question, the utility of this Wall Mark Meadows suggests this wasn't really big priority, especially when things like Dhaka were on the table. The M, committee is seeking to dodge efforts to give to give wall, while funding. Car thieves, saying we have to put this after the mid term elections. We have to put this before. They are off your elections and in twenty seventeen- and you know, Sir They after survey of law makers from the USA today and in the Wall Street Journal of Lawmaker, on the border, and economic has generally indicating that report had no interest in this war, thanks, and I you get the idea from the shutdown fight that there is some sort of a united front here presented by Republicans but its absolute nonsense. Their posturing because Democrats in the majority not provide them with cover, but they spent two years balking
Providing measly sums of money for this thing, those twenty five billion, then without a fifteen billion than twelve billion, and then it was a grand deal with like six billion and now we're down to five billion fridges, partial portions of of these persons of land that are already protected by the physical partition- and you still don't have report- looking unity around it. You still sue clock cracks and that in the end, if thus united Front, it is the GEO P until there granted by the way, because this thing doesn't have a hollow utility, but it is Republicans who were against this boondoggle in the desert to begin with,. Well. So that's all depressing. So so, if we fall Oh you're scenario: he declares emergency Court stay at day table the spending to reopen the government. That can happen. You know if he, if that's if, if he's it on,
then I suppose I can happen today. You're older, declared today about someone takes a two way: cantonal today is then the new cycle is about. The crisis should probably wait until Friday at around six. In order to make it, As possible for autonomy, so here's my a take on where we are politically whereas forty two, what is the number forty to look at the polish? It says people who think that there is a border? Is forty, two percent, the number of people who support terms efforts on this is forty two percent. The number of his Polly average leap in the real here politics Paul is around forty two percent and in the five thirty eight Paul averages around forty two percent, basically Trump. What trump does. Will be supported by forty two percent of the public and their there's, fifty members of other will not support either because they don't know they don't care or because their actively opposed to it. When I say this
that it before me say it again, I'll say until November twenty twenty he's not gonna win presidency. With forty two percent support he can magically reallocate all of his votes, exactly where he wants them, and forty two percent is not going to who at this is where it gets back to this question of persuasion right. So there two ways that he builds up that number by by twenty twenty. What is that? results of the presidency or so spectacularly good that people don't want said the apple card, even if they don't like it, but I think he's a jerk and they don't like his policies and may think he's a fascist. They still big well, you know the country is. We were growing and we have a low unemployment and people are by making more money and everything is much better and I dont want democratic acts to come in and through things up, so I regrettably were roughly I will vote for, will vote for it.
There is a history of people. Voting for people, power They are particularly likely largest landslide, an american political history which was Nixon in eighteen. Seventy two Richard Nixon was not a popular person personally, but Sixty percent of people voted for it because they could not vote from four four Mcgovern and Rubber Nixon at forty three percent stages, the eight. So you know there is There is a history of the Essen if the Damn her by completely crazy nominates. You know Angela Davis, for president. That could happen. I still think that the problem that Trump faces is there He confuses his his hunger, too get the love of his base of the people who, like him, and to keep feeding them and feeding them, freeing them from the need to get another five
over six million people who have to vote for him for him to prevail next time. So is this? Is this tactic going too often some of that support. You seem to say no, but there was this quote. That has been circulating since I guess around Sunday are Monday, which is a very revealing quote about from a Trump supporter who is being negatively affected by the shut down, saying something to the effective and unfair phrasing that he's not hurting the people, he should be hurting jesting, that he'd there their desirous of this sort of retributive presidency that meets out the kind of pain that they think that they have suffered and that other people are not suffer.
But that there are now the recipients of this pain. Maybe it's inadvertent, maybe they're collateral damage, but there are suffering to does at some point that forty two per and become forty thirty nine percent, as a result of the fact that they are suffering along with everybody else, they think should be suffering to. But we know that from strong support is soft, Bobby upside because he actually has fallen in pulling averages last year to thirty five thirty four percent he has gone down he's never really gone higher than forty to forty three percent. So the real question is for him, maybe he'll. You know if I'm right, the softness of that support is immaterial in the sense that if he doesn't get them, if he doesn't get
two people who don't supportive. Now he can't prevail next time. I mean, I don't think, that's a sentiment that really drives people to the poles anyway end up nine of which the its though I hope that these people who I dont like suffer as much as I perceive myself only suffer merciless, I mean well fear motivates people more the poles than positive sentiments. I know that, regrettably, that is the case, but that's more like retribution or vengeance, is something a little more bitter. You know minded to Johns point about if, if the Democrats run in action, Davis. I remain pretty. I think, that's well within the possibility in Europe, not Angela Davis herself, but but someone who would instil fear in in voters to the two to the extent that they Democrats will push voters into the arms of trump just just but but by comparison
an end that you know the and those kind of targets for trump of he if he has to focus his energies on internet an opponent like that, that's actually where he comes out and China to the extent that he shines, I mean there's gonna be aspirational policy proposals from the left just like just like. Tromp Trump ran on things like a deportation force and a muslim ban and a muslim registry, and in all these wild eyed ideas that we're supposed to make him unelectable in the general election, but they weren't right well be, did get forty six percent of the vote, got it allocated exactly the right places to make it possible for him to three hundred and six electoral law I mean. But this is right: now he can't get had three of those river is excellent, but this is the problem in he's trapped into pursuing what an another report report. Yes, it was merely on the monarch device on the campaign trail to get him to talk about border issues, this wall proposal,
has become now a real proposal that is shut down the government for a month. Right I mean what happens The analogy would be, I guess, the Demo Koala Harris wins the election and now Dilah Camelot. We now know to pronounce it contrary, because she said so, and the senator areas come come alive. Humbler. Think of this calibre a comma, that law, Kerbela, Comma LA yeah Harris wins the presidency behind. Medicare for all in a green new deal and has to figure out how to pay. For these things run is true, but her full campaign rather she's your appetite right. So so everybody is everybody's trapped by everything. So we looked up before the for the show. What the twenty eighteen overall vote was right, So it was this astonishingly large turnout. Eighty eve, almost eighty, four percent of the turn out of the election of twenty
sixty which has never happened before the mid term. Almost a hundred twenty million votes cast, which has never happened before mid term. I believe in percentage terms and Democrats would, by nine point two percent or subway tat. It was fifty three forty five cases like eight point, two percent below that they got. Ten million almost heavily more votes Democrats, in the aggregate them Republicans granted, these votes are unevenly distributed in urban areas and all that, but probably got fifty million votes, which is well or thirteen million off what Trump got a Democrat. That sixty billion, which is six million off what Hilary God so even there. You can see that, even though that there is going to have to be a stimulant, it be voting for Republicans
to get back close to parity with two thousand and sixteen, let alone do a little better, which is what he is going to have to do it remember where Trump, where the devil still well in twenty eighteen versus twenty. Sixteen in the states in which the Trump took to win the presidency, with the exception of Ohio, was content, went democratic. The Pennsylvania vote was overwhelmingly democratic and the mission What was democratic, those those states as well as a high or what gave him the presidency and if there was a presidential, arrive, now he would lose all three of them and possibly Iowa, and therefore it not only wouldn't he win three hundred and six electoral votes. The Democrats would win three hundred and six electoral votes or more so There's a lot of work to do, and I'm just saying that the early results of twenty nineteen dont suggested the president has any go any idea that this is where he needs to go or what he needs to do, and the speech on Tuesday would give you little hope if you were a trump supply
that he has any understanding of what it is necessary for him to do, and he has also being seduced, I think, by his campaign manager, Brad PAR scale. Who keeps tweeting about how digital Outreach, their digital access of their digital. This is so great that you have no idea how much support he has out there. Well, the out what we know who is what happens when people vote? Not what happens when you try to get them to send you money order, click on your link to click on another link? Ok! So now that I'm all head up, I think it's time for me to talk about com, are our sponsor today. As you know, a new year Briggs and opportunity to resist that establish new habits to reset excuse me: resistance to watch on Facebook,
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ass commentary get unlimited access to all of comes cut them today had calmed outcome. Slashed commentary give yourself the gift of calm and a happy and healthy twenty nineteen. What did it occurs to me as we're talking about this? Is that we do find, or so again. This is true of the Bush years. At its true the Obama years that that power the text is so dominated overshadowed the United States by a single figure right. You serve look at it in all the news is about Trump and the reactions to Trump and the stories about Trump, and no This was less the case. With in the seventies, Eightys and Ninetys, when their worst sort of larger figures of the political round. Baby
Social media and serve cable television, which inclined towards her record of star politics, were less less important, but you know about doll was a coup was majority leader. He was a world famous figure, Tipp O Neill. Was it enormously big figure in the United States? Speaker, the House, Tom for you know I mean you could name. Senator people knew who senators were. I would say now that you know John Mccain was the only Europe was until His death, he only universally known senator in the events, its government partially because he ran for president and I think, as we look ahead to talk nineteen in twenty Slash twenty. This is deacon. Part of the issue with the field of Democrats were going to like sort themselves out to run against Trump is: aren't they all going to look like you know. They're there, bus and truck tour
All the versions of you know, like a third rate television stars appearing in a suburbs stock theatre production of the odd couple. Instead of you know, Jack Lebanon, Walter Math, as you know, is it. How are they gonna seem like their big enough to rival. That's always the problem with somebody challenging incoming presidencies come up against the stature of the but let me the stature of the office, I don't think a trump, it's not about the stature of the office. It's about, something else he has served me. He is I'll catch. All chemicals are different for him than for Obama for Bush or something like that. Bush was elevated by the stature of the office because met massively important big major things happen on his watch right: nine, eleven
the war in Iraq. You know that responds to nine eleven. All of that to the two thousand and four was a notable election, because he was loved and hated in equal measure, pretty much in equal measure, as he was like a fifty fifty president and Obama. You know achieved this kind of mythical status in part running as the first real rockstar president, but try is this you know he has carefully hate him. That's new thing in politics or you know he wants hey? There will help them and he likes being controvert. He doesn't mind, you know it I mean it will do so. The way that someone could actually you know successfully with rival. That would be if they came out and with their with sums. Crazy magnetism, some unbelievably charismatic figure who
the shock, everyone- suddenly I mean, We have said you know we ve been saying that. You dont know really who them Your players are going to be this far out right. Do we still? We still feel that right, so you know if it's some sort of late comedy that emerges with with it with a dazzling degree of charisma than perhaps than than being up Perhaps they have a shot at earlier you're talking about better the actually nugget of give it here something funny, so hang around MSNBC Gray rooms and stuff. How these conversations with people far more liberal or democratic than I did. I say things like you know, but by the virtual Joe Biden as a candidate. Is that he's the one guy who can stand up against trumpets say? Don't tell me that you're euro you're going that AIDS was your Vietnam.
Like when I was twenty, nine years old, my wife died in car crash. I had to sit beside my kids bedside while they got, but you know I took the train home every night to Delaware. You know, I really you you rich boy Weiner, like I grew up as a poor kitten Scranton shot up, you know, do the stuff that either the Paul Ryan right and then, They eddies leading to the poles who like how easily the poles of that just name, IP address, nay mighty. It's you know it's like well, you know this was the mistake that Republicans made in twenty fifteen, which has Trump leaden the Pazos like well, so we leading in the polls Trump, basically after, like August, wait fifty never didn't led in the polls. So the notion that, it doesn't mean anything to lead in the polls. I know it's way early, but that's all since they might be, maybe as good. Maybe these really good prettily we're gonna, be twenty people to feel like could go out with me. My t if no one else gets
Probably it may mighty there are people but they're, not they're, not actually in the field. Who could who could give Trump run for money? adsense in that room, celebrity personnel is that I think fightin could perform that's what I'm is unsafe. Let's passed a primary he's, gonna have a lot of resistance and primary, particularly because he is he's such a status quo ante Democrat. These approached Labour Democrat, I mean the well he's also use also to also be you know, seventy seven years old on election day, This is hardly hasn't said, he's running, but hardly my left has it out for buying because it came out against day social minimum income because it do you, I use the year.
Those in the they, the self worth associated with work. I think things happen in primary runs right. You have a very large potential populace and everybody will be looking to harness the power of the base, harnessed power the base and get the base behind them, so they have the enthusiasm of the power of the base. But if you have ten twelve people making a play for the base, the guy who doesn't make the play for the base, has lain everybody else who isn't part of the doesn't want? doesn't we owe he'll say? Look I think climate changes it is. You know tribute. Aids is important thing to deal with these. You doesn't say my entire campaign will be where climate change. So, if you care by climate change you, you know, he made up your top choice, but if there are seven different people saying climate
age? We need to evoke emergency powers to stop by climate change. All of that this is about is gonna. Dissipate is gonna break for a bunch of other people. We have this conversation. I guess it was last week, but if this mirrors the republican race, there has to be an issue that the Democrats are not talking about, that jazz is the base and that they think that the elected classes and talking about because they think it's toxic, It's a third rail at something. The thing I don't think it's guaranteed minimum income Nirvana, climate change. It wouldn't be progressive economic policies, all that stuff is covered. It would be some other atta left field issue. I know my candidate is: There would be some other. I left field issue that they think that they shouldn't discuss democratic electorates shouldn't discuss because an alien too many people its toxic, it's a sort of thing that only energizes the blogosphere, and that is why it makes you
less serious? That's what Donald Trump capture of it was a I keep citing this rubbish, but who wrote a fantastic peace in February of twenty fourteen for Bloomberg, in which he said that the consensus of the sixteen candidate field, these ed. They disagree on everything, but there's a big consensus around immigration and it doesn't mirror the republican Electorate one bit and had left field condone trumpet capture. Thirty percent of the electorate ran with it all the way, nation behind immigration. So what is that other issues? But their remit? Another issue, I think there is, I think, is right. I think that there are already talking then yeah, but they're, not in whose the elected official who saying as Alexandria, cause your Cortez is the Donald Trump is a racist outright full o o bye bye. Happily save by would have no private, probably Lady said he said, like he said wrongly, wanted to put black people and chains I mean hills: hey hit,
It's no problem anywhere else. It is, I think I think I think he could, but it's it's it's hard to say, where are the other at my goods? I think I could say that, because of who is at the top of the ticket, when I just don't know if this is if this is the way, the Elizabeth Warm by are both saying that the election has to be about speaking to the middle class you know the reason for that, because seventy percent of american people or survivors are by archaic, characterizes being the middle class. So you want to talk about the screwing in the middle class. Now it's that's gonna be difficult to some extent. If the economy, but continues to apple and wages. We will wage growth goes up again this year after going up three percent last year, like if people are, you know, ten percent well here than they were two years ago.
Oh when they go to the polls. Making the case of David screwed under Trump is gonna, be a little difficult. Having said that, I just think if you, if you look at the problem, the problem is that everybody who is talking about running is running from the left: almost and maybe somebody who therefore runs from the less left, is good. Have a whole population of people who are interested in the culture war, who are part of the sixty million who voted in twenty. Tea with amid terms and by the way, that's also another way of looking at the the next presidential election. As mirroring twenty sixteen can make an argument that Trump ran from the less right. He ran from the road with him and promote more extremist positions, but
he was he was on board with all sorts of infrastructure and the individual mandate. Absolutely right. You have, he was a yo. Yo gets conventional republican foreign policy, and certainly he didn't run as a primary. He said nominally he was a pro lifer, but love what running as a pro life, or nobody believed that he was a pro life or so right. So all of that check in those boxes may not be necessary for somebody who decides to run on his own steam, which is also what Trump talked about what he wanted to talk about, and not what at its inch at an interesting thought experiment. But I couldn't be somebody to whom concern conservatives. He couldn't be somebody who appealed to the right either like you have to it, had even been abandoned. Conservative positions or abandoned commercially progressive positions running into democratic primary shore, but you also have to look like you. The re people arrive or address, as you say that, as I said in Blue, post for comes your magazine, which are highly recommend a counter magazine
How much Isler agreement, which is the new consensus, is there Consensus is bad. Is that how you have to have some sort of its gets? Cones maxim we have to You see your enemies driven before you got here. The limitation of their women are, for. You have achieved true victory right now, but it's I think it's very. I think that's actually bought coded that, sir. That was getting us cod. I thought that was so. It's actually look. I am called at the bar various borrowing from getting this. Robert Howard borrowed forget now I think that the real story here, is that you can certainly say being totally up a left, not attack the leftist but say Donald Trump is a crook, scum,
You know he needs to be run out of town on a rail and I'm the guy or the woman to do it and when I come in we're gonna fix health care. We're gonna fix this. We're gonna fix that we're gonna fix the other in a fix climate change, which is the sort of way the Trump talk to that. If what what is struggling to say will you give me specifics, I need specifics. I'm lucky says: gonna fix climate change. What's he gonna do trumped can't attack whoever is rival is on the issues, and I think that the democratic. Primary electric is going to be all that interested on in substance on the issues either. It's all going to be. Is this a person that I can support, who can beat Trump
You know this whole thing about people don't want intellect ability. That's true people vote on Elect ability. Quite a lot. I would say fifty five percent of the republican primary electorate that didn't vote for Trump was voted with. A lot of them were voting for Trump on the basis that he was not normally that they did liked him, but then he wasn't electable, and so you know That's the figures, I'm driving job. The lady who is running firm, was running for President Congress and from New Jersey like he's there. Why can he be it will? Because why would he be electable who those job? The lady I mean? That's. I think the reason that I hope you keep thinking some one thing some x factor is gonna come into the race.
It's like nature, abhors a vacuum. If there's a vacuum in the anti Trump cards, something is gonna come in to fill, fill the space, and you know that something is either gonna be in that field or somebody who comes comes elsewhere better, but it does have to be some one of some size some. Follow you because Trump, just you know, is a whatever. He is pretty as a lot of volume. Culture eatable outer space, So without we will wish you a very pleasant weekend hoped would be back with us, but day for password and a Bryn Mawr John onwards came together.
Transcript generated on 2019-12-12.