« Commentary Magazine Podcast

Commentary Podcast July 20 2016

2016-07-20 | 🔗
While John Podhoretz is in Cleveland, Abe Greenwald and Noah Rothman cover the goings on at the Republican National Convention in his absence. The GOP has formally nominated Donald Trump which, with rare exceptions, was not a smooth process. The result has been unnecessary bad blood and a joyless convention. Also, Melania’s strong speech marred by plagiarism accusations, and the how the Trump campaign turned a one-day story into a week-long scandal. Overall, everything is just fine in Cleveland. Don’t forget to subscribe to our podcast on iTunes.
This is an unofficial transcript meant for reference. Accuracy is not guaranteed.
Welcome to the commentary magazine. Podcast today is Wednesday July. Twenty five twenty. Sixteen, I am no a rough men and with me is commentary magazine senior editor, a green waldheim. I Noah aboard Lee John put, is not with us right now. He is in Cleveland where the Republican Party has just officially informally nominated Donald Trump to be their presence she'll candidate and twenty sixteen, where he will likely go head to head against likely them Braddock ignominy, Hillary Clinton in November, the process by which Donald
Finally, one the nomination was following a long, pretty divisive one pitted the party against other it so the lava divisions and those divisions were exposed over the course of this week in the convent and was supposed to be a really unifying event, a calm, cathartic event in which, Bygones guns are let go and everybody joins hands things come via their there wasn't a ton of that to be seen, particularly on the weak. Proceeding this convention. When the rules committee met the platform committee as well and on day one and day two of this nominating process, which resulted in Donald Trump nomination. What we saw in in both cases, were efforts by eighty Trump forces too, Then the process, or at least stage little bit of a of a revolt sort of just an attempt.
To show that there was a lack of of behind Donald Trump and they wanted to make a mega, perhaps an ill fated case for a firm for why he shouldn't be the nominee and in just about every case they the forces that were arrayed against Aunt Donald Trump, we're going to lose their modest, they were poorly organised. They didn't have the numbers that they needed and the currency could have made real big fools of them in every case and in every case the orange see played their hand really poorly and made a martyr the anti Trump forces naval gonna, get your opinion on this because my take Is that a lot of this totally unnecessary when it came to first the rules Committee, where a really modest faction of Republicans had decided that they were going to try and impose on the party some sort of chaos in the form of allowing
on binding or two measures that were before the rules committee. One, Unbound the candidates are the delegates rather to vote for the kid the winner of their party or their caucus, or rather the primary their caucus and another was a clinical conscience clause which was to allow delegates to be allowed to vote in. However, they felt would satisfy their conscientious objection. In both cases, both measures failed. They failed in the debate process. They were they moved for closer, and we got one roll call vote for the conscience clause, which show that only twelve people stood up in support of it of a hundred and twelve member. Many you need twenty eight it was. There was nothing there and what they wanted in this rules. Committee was a full roll call vote on the motion itself and didn't get it a chair. I said you know what we're not going to give it to you and that's kind of, a stronger move. It was designed
to shield the members of that committee from having stand up to stand up and put identities in names to names to who supportive of that measure. It probably would have exactly mirrored the vote for road for closer, but they didn't want. They didn't want that to happen and so there was bad blood and bad. Let's data, all we get long until Monday when this whole package, rules that was agreed to in this committee was up for a vote before all the delegates, all twelve to twenty, some on hundred of them. You need a majority which is twelve eighty, something to pass this path. Its forward? And there was again a very modest revolt against this rule package designed to just voted down and they knew they were going to fail. Data the numbers to succeed. They had enough numbers. Get a minority report to the floor, which was nine states, something like that, and so they got there
their motion heard and the chair called a voice vote and there is a then, in the hall all the nose were screaming. All the eyes were screaming in the pain, the you know the chair, the eyes had it and the crew. Exploded again, and so wanted to just keep this voice vote is just the voice vote and they couldn't possibly have heard. Who is who? So, what was appropriate at that time was to call for a point of order and have a roll call vote and the chair just left, walked off the stage and so for twenty minutes. The anti trunkful- says, held tell the control of the proceedings they had. Every microphone likely was giving mightily, who is very prominent. Opponent of Donald Trump nomination was giving interview, whoever was interviewing him. He had control over proceedings. Basically him in a former virginian gubernatorial candidate, conclude genetic, whose also trump upon When they finally came back, the chair, announced,
Three states of these nine had dropped out, and there was no need to have a roll call vote so once again eyes and. Screams the eyes habit, and the motion failed once again the orange. He could have humiliated the anti Trump faction and, once again, they add fuel to the fire by handling it really really early. And finally, yesterday, when you had the vote that result, Donald Trump nomination. Once again, there were efforts to have some sort of roll call votes or allow at least the delegates who were awarded candidates, notably marker Rubio John K, second tat crews, to be counted as such and the worst it's where there were no states or territories rather where there were no votes for Donald Trump, like Washington DC. Now the rules state that, if there's one candidate who is entered into the nominating press,
legitimately there is only one candidate, who's gonna get votes. So in DC said we have seven votes fur crews and eleven votes for marker Rubio. The chair counted them all for Donald Trump and that's in the rules and that solely fine, but once again it created a whole bunch of bad blood Iowa in Virginia delegations walked out and the result was a lot of unnecessary hostility and frustration with Donald Trump and a very heavy handed fashion that demonstrated that the republican establishment was totally behind Donald Trump unfilled. Donald Trump is a creation of quoting Quote Republican. Establishing and it was all very and necessary, in my opinion, maybe I'm being a little too hard on the currency, no, I don't think so. I think it in a broadway. Goes to show what I think we ve seen and again, since the beginning of this alleged, season, which is that the chaos and ran the around Trump
around the Trump candidacy is contagious in the end it Whoever signs on catches it supposed to be the hope of the of the currency, which was the reply. That that they would be able to in and still some sense of order, and coherence on Trump it It necessarily works. The other way you d, be the incoherence flows outward. You know one and also be the anti Trump faction also. I think wanted was to have a roll call vote to get to get. People on record in the event of of it, from Lawson to say. Ok, this is this. This is things this is where the poor start. Yet well. This is well gesture. Just just so we know you know it's it's it's it. It was a noble idea and and and and no and no good, so No, I don't think you're being too harsh at all. Well,
There is always, I guess, hope, Springs Eternal that's the one word you hear from from reluctant trump supporter, something and specifically of marker Rubio, there's always hope that he's gonna change. It's like the battered girlfriend syndrome, where you see he's going to be there. Other person eventually and all you have to do- is hang in long enough to get there and, as you said, he you sort of corrupts. He corrupts that the institutions around him rather than him changing. He changes everything else and in many cases for the first, as we move forward into the general election season and that theme is going to carry forward into our next issued by the way. But as we move forward into than into the general election season, I'm wondering if you think that he'll be able to be disciplined enough to do not force the Republican Party to go pick
up after him every time he creates one of these controversies and we're about to go into another one of those unnecessary controversies that has dominated this week, which should be a gimme free, throw weak, but whether or not a party is going to eventually say: ok, twenty sixteen is a loss and we're gonna have to start to cut bait. Here I mean we certainly could we ve student could be heading into that situation down the line me. That's not gonna certain. That may happen. That, the commission submitted its imagine yeah, but No! I don't. I think you normally do is resistant to discipline. I think it! side from reading. Occasional boost. Our opinion, peace. That says he can he's there that this this long for Pivot is here coming just about here there's dumping in the convention speeches to me that almost seemed to inherently acknowledge that he's not going to change its it's in fact, Part
Why so many speakers seem not really to be focusing on him. What did theme of last night, for example, was: was Hillary Clinton right, which were supposed to be economics and joblessness and just sort of became Hilary? Yes, so I dont think you know and and and why a the envy indorsement set that were hearing during the convention are really deserve broad, mythical statements from from ultimate fighting champion president's in from family members and theirs no one is no one. Really seems to it as well as far as I can recall, get up there and say, listen is he's he's you, you may he's brash may think he's he's alive, and so forth but no he's. Actually he is, he is
reasonable. He is he's disciplined when he needs to be he's that you know no one seems to really overtly be making this pivot case. I am going to push back on that a little of it, because I think you're absolutely right about yesterday. Yesterday there was something very strange going with US speeches extra that I want to get Europe, but the first day in my opinion, was the thematic of that day was. I was supposed to be make America safe again all about national security, but what it was when I heard constantly consistently firmly speakers was Donald Trump is not who you think he is he's. Everything that is all these things that you ve heard about him and he's he's not that he's a family man he's a wonderful, warm kind. Generous person he's a charitable person who, though he doesn't whenever get credit, for it was strange credulity. But that's what I heard I heard yesterday was Donald Trump is the person that is not the point, you think he is, and yesterday, or rather Monday, and the day after yesterday was remember. You hate Hilary I think you're, actually a hundred percent right. Yes, but
None of it was specific about policy and about about his his ability to to to be disciplined or serious exactly. It was his kindness, his generosity, is. Ambition. Things of that nature yeah, We are at one of the things I want get. Your opinion on this kind of a digression is yesterday. Speeches that did focus on Are you? A lot of them are really good prosecutor aerial this passionate indictments of Hillary Clinton, move all the way into work into Chris Christie Speech, however, all them seemed to fall flat. You had I'm speaking thinking very specifically of former attorney general Lucchese, who made
rather kind of bland, but nevertheless really effective indictment of Hillary Clinton, though maybe it was speaking style, but it struck me that that audience didn't wanna, hear anything that wasn't praise of Donald Trump, explicitly air or read me, and we had to do with Hillary Clinton. It just sort of fell flat RON Johnson Senator from Wisconsin got up there and said something that affect it: just kind of bombed until Chris Christie got up there and really through the bloody tunic into the crowd. Did they begin to respond to an anti Hilary case, but it had to be approached Trump case to the thing about. MIKE Lucchese speeches that I thought it was content wise. It was excellent, but obviously, when you lay out this travel legalistic lap, a dairy case like that an auditorium is not necessarily the most receptive place for strangely walk. Chris Christie speech was
very well received, I think, in its own way it fell flat in that this phenomenon, whereby sometimes you lay out, a case that that that's been hinted at beforehand and even if you yell it, and even if you presented in a clever way, there's, there is a sort of automatic human response to go. That's it, that's it! That's that's! That's sort of all it is but I think the Hilary isn't deserving other of harsh judgment on some of the things you lay out and an additional things, but there's something about it. That was So very seeking you know he was he was. It was it was. It was a sort of my trial without really being a my trial. It was it was, it was in some the opposite of the James with James call me statement. It was
guilty. Not really going to tell you why I M, just going to sort of the loot You said I mean that's appropriate for that kind of n. You I mean of the left, has been just aghast with the impropriety of Republicans daring to chant, lock her up as though she's, not a figure can of inconsiderable. Trouble her chest and was very much facing criminal indictment, but is currently now in facing a civil case about these emails such as much lower evidentiary threshold in very well could result in some sort of judgment against her, but the
it is not as though that this is a sort of untoward for this format. It's it's it's a rally. It's a rally. Full of partisans and Democrats are just as guilty of Republicans engaging in excess. Now is it kind of ugly yeah? I think so. I don't think it's very becoming behavior, but there is a sort of reptilian brain that takes over when you're in that sort of format and certain allowances, I suppose, should be made for that situation as long as they don't go into something it's a little bit more physical
so here I kind of find those those criticisms to be a bit far fetched with the exception of verging on incitement or as one programme delegate said today, that Hillary Clinton is treasonous to the point where she is deserving of capital punishment in the form of firing squad. That's not helping that kind of fanaticism and encouraging that kind of fanaticism is a sign of a very sick political movement, and I don't I don't know whether or not we should be encouraging that, but the notion that crowd chanting lock her up it is beyond the pale, is really just a contrivance on the part of the left yeah. I wasn't. I wasn't Southerners terribly offended by it, but I do I do think that at a certain point forms like Christy's does reveal a slight stink of desperation to its immediate first as as serving as overwhelming cake, is overwhelming sort of loud arguments can can do, and I
there was something of that there, because it was long too lengthy, and you know- and when do we hear, risk Chrissy talking about Nigeria and and and duly lenient towards Vladimir Putin. I mean that's, just that's just takes a lot. Laurie Clinton was on and duly lenient towards Vladimir Putin. I mean that's just that's just take lot of brass, but yeah you mean he was also a kind of showing, trump. You know what he was missing so to speak, because he very much according to reports was really disappointed that he wasn't chosen for rights when any one day the shown, what exactly what? When what got away thinking accomplish that, because it was very much in the Trump Strum persona, with an exception of the fact that its very bizarre that the Trump primary campaign she was have kind of melted away. Where is all the more bombastic talk about building thirty story. Walls
the Rio Grande, whereas the Muslim ban, I any Carnation of the muslim man that has been no peel prepared, paired back impaired back over the course of a year. Where is all this stuff- that he was so proud to campaign in the primary an end. Now nobody is talking about it in the general. I suppose that something of a pivot, the, that's been long awaited, but you know what a it's it's sort of a sort of ok pivot. We're not were not exactly Bracing softer tone or softer rhetoric with a sort of jettisoning he's, really unworkable nonsense. Proposals that appealed to the to the bar base. Still instincts, and there is also no reason to think that when the convention's over will will hear the nonsense all over again and end in in new colorful forms, while anyway Speaking of controversies that are unnecessary and dont need to be. No need to be, as it were, for during the convention weak, the
The flap of the week that has really dominated new cycles and shouldn't be by all rights has been bologna, trumps each and whether or not there was a passage there. That was plagiarized from two thousand eight democratic national convention address by now. First lady, Michelle Obama in Speech Maloney. His speech was, in my opinion, and a lot of other opinions, leaning on the on the breadth of opinion on this point very good. She delivered it cleverly and well. English is not her first language and shoe teleprompter reading his age earn skill and she performed both exceptionally well. She came up ass. Rudy Giuliani, who wowed conservatives. In my opinion, it was a little bombastic antelope, theatrical Smee. I can kind of I could tell that I was being appeal
two, and that was something of a turn off, whereas Maloney ahead a unifying message: agent, we'll election message, they pushed her, they pushed the schedule around. Get her into primetime. Knowing that she was gonna be something of a draw I think she hid it out of the park. And an hour later, summoned rising journalist sitting in a Starbucks Unemployed, decided, did go back and check the record check these speeches back against each other, and sure enough, the similarities were eerie to the point of strained credulity, to suggest that their words intentional efforts to lift some of some of that speech from Michelle Obama now that didn't have to be a scandal either, but the Trump campaign Really leaned into making that a scandal that their approach to it was contradictory and self destructive and shifting
and fuelling this media fire in this controversy in the right has the proton right has been saying. This is a mountain out of a molehill. This is nothing is immediately Firstly, they made it from nowhere. They should just let it go and ignore it, but it wasn't the media that was making this thing. It was the Trump campaign that every hour on the hour and the Republicans in the committee were feeding sink, giving new details and creating a new excuse and a new culprit and then giving somebody you know it now and then that outward would refuse to be thrown under the bus that the process started that evening where they said you know there was no plagiarism at all, and then they said. Okay, well Maloney wrote the herself she's, never written a speech in her life neural metal. She issue she had essentially said that she said she forehand. She had savage than that. Her doing and she had a little input, but but ok, well that wasn't trail it turned out that it was. There was some actual veteran speechwriters who wrote the thing and worse.
Posed to assume their positions under the bus and declined to do it. What does it mean made? The thing about Maloney is regional. Bad using her. Her statement before the fat like that is, is that either It wasn't true, so either she was lying and she and she didn't write the speech or it was He was telling the truth and therefore She had cribbed it right. I think I was before, or after I'm lunch not entirely clear on my timeline here, but at some point, Republican National Committee, spokesperson, Spacer sort of self emulated when he went on television and decided to say that you know the these. The choice of words here, which were so name kindly vat burden, and you know about just being the best. You can be in working really hard that
a little ponies, sparkle, ponies work, twilight pony or whoever the ponies had set it just as much, and that's how silly that this controversy was according to Sean's by Sir well. It turns out that this speech was cribbed and it was written by somebody who's, a very close trump associate, the Trump organization who has written ghost written in and co written a lot of trouble books and She tendered her resignation today and their resignation that, but for by the way, her mistake is an accidental on her Quarterboat part, lifting this part of the speech from Michelle Obama. And though she offered a resignation, resignation which was nobly declined. Donald Trump refuse to accept that resignation.
An hour and day three of this controversy, but wait. It gets better. The resignation that was tendered was written on a piece of Trump Organization Stationary now that may seem like nothing to most. People seem like nothing to me because the Trump organ in that trunk trump campaign are so closely linked that there is almost no moiety between either of them and is very hard to tell when one stops and the other begin. So I kind of overlooked it. But people who know this regulations and and federal certain rules, better than I do noted that that could very well be a violation of federal law. That they might have broken the law by intermingling trumps business interests with the campaign and specific campaign related function like the Republican National Convention and that that could very well the addictive, but of course we shouldn't make too much over piece of letterhead one
One has to know what what the connection is beyond that and when and how how her employment is organised, yeah, I'm not speaking to the legality there, because I don't know run and I could be totally on base year, I'm only going off what people other people who are in this industry have said, but the very fact that we have to talk about whether or not this was illegal violation is again feeling the controversy fire. These in this should be a cakewalk. Weak knows, We heard the message conventionally. This was it with its an astounding cascade of own goals, on on the terms on the trunk campaigns part over this over this speech I mean do you think of all the ways that that Maloney is speech could have gone wrong. She's I used to this new, no one's used. It is no use to getting out in front of that kind of crowd taking some sort of quite personal statement about your husband. English is not first language he could have. Her accent could have come.
Wrong she could have. She could have been a problem. Ethically nervous. None of that happened. She she Actually she killed it, but there was that then this problem and and it points to so many serve defining weaknesses in the in the in the trunk campaign. Competence is is, is out, you know, and you know he had made a show of sort of say look how I can run a campaign, so lean, there's some. Too much waste and and is an example of how not to two ways? Look? Look look at how I'm but look at looking out. My campaign doesn't waste and it turns out. Well you you, you might have done well to waste a little a little money on a piece of software that looks for plagiarism. A few more writers is only really knows, and then yeah, as you said, we look up yesterday to a sort of food a meltdown mode from the trunk camp and now, which is good,
it's getting better and really is so far. Overshadowing most of the rest of the invention? Yet it's the issue and the look look. The press has a vested interest. I think it's fair to say that there is an interest in a narrative here. That is, the trunk campaign is a raging dumpster fire, and they want to cover that. I think they don't want to upset that narrative. That's that's beginning to congeal and I think they're invested in it. So the campaigns shouldn't be feeding that fire. If you're a conservative, you know that there is no media invested interest in your success. Whether or not that's fair, that's something that we have all come to accept over the course of the last couple of decades.
And conservatives would know that your your job is to put out fires in the trunk campaign is under the impression which frankly, Chris Christie was under at a certain point that the media's on his side- and I think that led to a lot of poor assumptions on his choice and carelessness and sloppiness, and that's that certainly come back to bottom up. Why can I say one thing that I think Thea: do they ve done correctly? The interconnections we're talking about through the various problems with it, I think they're their use of showbiz, visual technology and trumps being This hovering presence that, peers and silhouettes and then and then comes up.
Momentarily on a jumbotron. I actually think in his case it kind of work, sir, it it it project entrance yes Monday. I got a lot of attention, yes described that and if you haven't seen it yet hee hee hee. He served emerged out of use even announced or not when it happened, I feel I feel like he wasn't cause. It was that kind of moment he just who serve silhouette appeared in the Misty Hayes. On the on the stage of unmistakably, you know his silhouette. Many came out from the from the dark and introduce Maloney on, but it was. It was a sort of the high point before before disasters yell opened up, he was backlit with right, with a dry Hey I smoke over the ground now of teleprompter in the lectern emerged from the stage as he walked forward is very much a w w e thing. We feel you should come out entirely and, of course, it's the conflict that if anyone tries to do with after finnish state, tabled it there
they will look terrible and horror before nobody else. Gotta pull that right right, but but you know this sort of Shameless showbiz stuff is his metier, and, and shying away from that. I think in his case is sort of helped him well to be critical again, the there are elements to this of good showmanship, and there are a lot that art this convention has been characterized, as as John Ports has noted on the blog and you can go red, is this ashes there really great, really informative in their lives. From the floor of the convention he's, I can paraphrase Little bit. The he's shocked at the joyousness listlessness of this convention keys speaking at normal decibel levels on the floor, where he has never been able to do that before you see images now two nights in a row of a convention that is two thirds empty.
Where people are streaming out of the exits as prime time speakers are speaking. Something is not normal here and I dont know what, but something is creating the impression I think, I'm gonna paraphrase my former Salem Communications colleague. I Benson who's been saying that it feels like you're at a year at a game in the third quarter in the middle of a blow out loss, there's just no passion, no enthusiasm, a sense of dread. Inevitability has come over this convention with the exception of some hard core, so you see on C span dancing and do in Congo line the rest of us. They they do feel a little bit muted, like they know what the future holds. Well, I'm in and how can it really be? Otherwise it's it's sort of a pact with being c and d listers, and it's it's there is it's completely device.
Hidden and turned against itself, as you pointed out and birds, but it's been plagued with Really embarrassing mistakes, so we owing to day three. This as we speak this evening, is some by president former vice president, sorry, vice presidential nominee, like ten will be addressing the convention, he's probably gonna, be introduced by Donald Trump or speak Ryanair, both and then the next day, Donald from formerly accepts the nomination, even though they are in seas already calling him the nominee, so it's kind of a formality, but that's the convention now. What we have not seen here is is unity, and I dont think we're going to see it, particularly because nobody seems interested in you have the Bush campaign.
A family which is presenting sort of us, like a shadow government, to twist to adopt a british ISM there there really out there are saying Lena. This is not the party that were used to her that we were going to support. Donald Trump campaign has recklessly antagonized John casing over the course of this process. Over the course of this entire affair, cassock has referred. Used to give him from a chore to this nomination and, as a result, you have Trump campaign and Donald from himself people going on television in attacking case ex performance in the primaries and his state, and whether or not you know you think that this appropriate for junkies to do what he is doing. This is entirely
early self destructive on the part of the term campaign. They need Ohio to win and you cannot win Ohio without the Ohio Republican Machine and they are highly republican. Chairman is going after Donald Trump and the governor. The most the really popular governor in that state is is vocally against Donald Trump if they don't get any support from the machine in the state they're going to lose, and you had some interesting observations. Considering that we had a report on this this morning in the New York Times and suggested that there's. We'll be back story we'll get a history to this this mutual antipathy? Yet there was a report in the times this morning that I blew. Donald Junior approached It took some time back an approach cases said something to the effect of how would you like to be the powerful vice president in history, kissable. What what What is it exactly entail, deciding over
send it and Donald Junior said well, you would be ensured domestic and foreign policy and an case accessible than what would what would your father do and and Donald said, but make Amerika great again I idle high. That report, because its it strikes me as very believable, as sort of one of the best predictive sort of, data points for analysis of of what a possible Trump presidency would look like. You know that here be this sort of oz like here this this this for your head, really a titular press. And and and have a and and have policy may
it's just doing their thing. He be entirely detached from it. I think there's something to that. It also speaks to the idea that he they did approach case it. After all, so what? Where it, whereas the famous sort of extremism and and and and harshness that that TAT has characterized the trump so far and they didn't know he was a valuable political figure it's hard not to. He was performing extremely
on the poles of a general election is veal, replanting and they know exactly how much weight he carries and in a higher that's why they're so frustrated with interest to serve their something of a jilted relationship. Here at this point, but yeah I- and I think that's that's true, and I don't I don't want to step on your point, but I think it's a very good one you made earlier about whether or not you know this is this. Is this is a portent of fascism? Descending on the United States, where it did, you know, Go and after drowned cases and all they want to do- is go to parties and to interview and play golf right right, you're gonna have to category and they sort of one to give him the keys to the kingdom. You know that you he can. He can. He can mine the shop right, So, no that's why I think that's why I think the fascist offers little weasel by the way is not how this works. You can't just hand the presidency for the vice president. That's that's not allow, but
yet in its also the most tangible evidence that we have so far. The down front really has no interest in being president and wants to win the presidency, but he has Euro intent interesting in governing. As president you just wants to you know, be important and not be laughed at him. I mean if he hasn't bound up on on what he would need to have bound up onto sound. Credible is as low as a nominee He certainly not go so far as to it to do the work to to actually to actually be a precedent and and commander in chief from that's that in his own mind, he's not that's not his plan. Well, consider we don't know this. Let's. Let's assume that this report is is true that I think it speaks probably pretty well John case. It could certainly Hetty thing to be offered basically the presidency without having to work for it.
Entered to deny that offer is to speak when one speaks of some restraint and is looking forward to twenty twenty in the event that Donald Trump does not win the presidency. We'll be erased to succeed him and right now the clearest distinctions between those people who will try to. Credit succeed, him we're going to be those who endorse and embraced Donald Trump and those who did not enjoy on case. It has certainly staked out a claim to be as much that the head, if not deep, in disputed leader of Camp who did not looking forward to the rest of the convention week and next week. If this was a normal campaign limits But let's say it's a normal campaign. We should see Donald Trump do pretty well in the polls in the beginning of the democratic convention, weak starting next week's over the time we're here, but we from today
we should be have a pretty good idea. Whether or not this is a normal convention. I still expect the appalling, but for Donald Trump, something Avc. Something like make Romney's convention bump, maybe three or four points, and I I anticipate that a lot of that will be fuelled by Republicans who come home after this process. I think there will be very few anti Trust Republican hold out there. It's gonna be members of the intellectual movement who are resistant to that, but I don't think they make up the majority the base I expected to gain closed in the support and ninety percent of our register report. And that should fuel a healthy, decent bumping. Hillary Clinton is having a terrible weak terrible month. She's been unable to stop the bleeding since her press conference, in which she was rhetorically indicted by FBI director James coming and she doesn't what she's doing she's flailing she's, not
how to make this thing stop. So, with those two things combined, we could have a scenario which we have a couple of poles: real reputable polls that showed don't from taking the lead, maybe getting into the thirtyth forty three forty four percent range, while Hilary Glens forty to forty one, something like that prompting pundit apoplexy. But we also expect Hillary Clinton we'll get her own. Bumpkins Democrats will do the same thing will happen healthy unifying convention? Everybody you'll come back together and will be probably probably where we were by Labour day while and I suspect her bump will be bigger than then Then why do before I met you? I mean I think there I think sure there will be a sort of modest too to average bump, but no one. We weren't shown any thing people and shown anything that they didn't expect to be shown and and therefore that, in a sign on in a way they before other than okay, this is real. This is the fact this is. This is the nominating and
and I may be overestimated me the amount of bad blood that was left over the course of this whole chaotic can convention scenario, I'm suggest I'm anticipating that nobody saw that in those who did not really care, but I could be complete Billy underestimating the impact that heavy handed display of force on the part of the Party for Donald Trump could have on committed to crew supporters, committed market, Rubio Supporters, John case exporters. They might have a bad taste in the mouth even still, but I am anticipating that after a couple of these couple of these speeches that everybody comes around, two did I'll drop, and it also depends on on trumps performance, which you know yet to see. An John John Jump has pointed out on the blog. How do you know? How is he going to react to to be to be millennia, speech, scandal, Is he gonna lash out and anger because she was she was,
picked on honour and because the known in his cancer handled correctly I don't know you know see if he gives some some some characteristic unhinged speech that that's going to that's going to hurt. I think I think you're right, so we will just have to see, but with that I think we're going to close out this episode of they come Ray Magazine, Podcast Commentary Magazine has been a leading light. The one of the leading it journals of in actual opinion and incite for Seventy one years you can read all of our material on the Blog Commentary magazine dot com. You can also subscribe for he ninety nine per year or a little bit more than that for the for the print addition and for a print magazine in your home. We will be back next week with jump at hordes who's going to have a lot of insights from
invention for, and you will not want to miss that episode in the meantime, keep the candle burning.
Transcript generated on 2020-02-27.